City of San Ramon – North Camino Ramon Specific Plan Draft EIR

Population and Housing

3.10 - Population and Housing 3.10.1 - Introduction This section describes the existing population and housing and potential effects from implementation of the Specific Plan on the affected area and its surroundings. Descriptions and analysis in this section are based on population and housing information provided by the California Department of Finance, the Association of Bay Area Governments, and the City of San Ramon. 3.10.2 - Environmental Setting Current Population, Housing, and Employment Estimates

The California Department of Finance estimated the population of the City of San Ramon to be 73,109 as of January 1, 2011. Employment was estimated to be 26,900 by the California Department of Employment Development. Population, housing, and employment characteristics for San Ramon are summarized in Table 3.10-1. Table 3.10-1: Population, Housing, and Employment Characteristics (2011) Population

Dwelling Units

Households

Persons per Household

Employment

Unemployed Persons

73,109

26,470

25,523

2.86

26,900

1,100

Source: California Department of Finance, 2011; California Department of Employment Development, 2011.

Historic Population Growth

The population of the City of San Ramon has grown significantly since incorporation in 1983. The City’s population more than doubled in the 25 years between 1985 and 2010. The primary cause of population growth was development in the Dougherty Valley, which to date has added more than 20,000 residents to the City’s population. The City’s population growth between 1985 and 2010 is summarized in Table 3.10-2. Table 3.10-2: City of San Ramon Historic Population Growth Year

Population

Change From Previous (percent)

1985

24,750

—

1990

35,303

42.6

1995

39,315

11.4

2000

44,722

13.8

2005

50,672

13.3

2010

71,947

42.0

Net Change

47,197

190.7

Compound Annual Growth Rate

4.36

—

Source: California Department of Finance, 2010.

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City of San Ramon – North Camino Ramon Specific Plan Draft EIR

Population and Housing

Population Growth Projections

The Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) publishes population growth projections for every city and county in the San Francisco Bay Area. ABAG’s population growth projections are used in regional planning efforts for issues such as air quality and affordable housing. Table 3.10-3 summarizes the population growth projections within the city boundaries from 2015 to 2035. As shown in the table, ABAG projects the population of San Ramon to increase by 22,500 persons between 2015 and 2035, which translates to an increase of 32.9 percent. Note that San Ramon’s 2011 population estimate of 73,109 exceeds the 2015 population projection and is approaching the 2020 population projection. Refer to Impact POP-1 for further discussion of this issue. Table 3.10-3: City of San Ramon Population Growth Projections Year

Population

Change From Previous (Percent)

2015

68,400

—

2020

73,800

7.9

2025

79,600

7.9

2030

85,200

7.0

2035

90,900

6.7

Net Change

22,500

32.9

Compound Annual Growth Rate

1.43

—

Source: Association of Bay Area Governments, 2009.

Employment Growth Projections

ABAG also publishes employment growth projections for every jurisdiction in the San Francisco Bay Area. Table 3.10-4 summarizes the employment growth projections for the City of San Ramon. As shown in the table, ABAG projects the creation of 10,180 jobs within the San Ramon city boundary, between 2015 and 2035, which translates to an increase of 24.3 percent. Table 3.10-4: San Ramon Employment Growth Projections Year

Employment

Change From Previous (Percent)

2015

41,890

—

2020

43,870

4.7

2025

46,650

6.3

2030

49,490

6.1

2035

52,070

5.2

Net Change

10,180

24.3

Compound Annual Growth Rate

1.09

—

Source: Association of Bay Area Governments, 2009.

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City of San Ramon – North Camino Ramon Specific Plan Draft EIR

Population and Housing

Historic Housing Growth

The historical housing growth is calculated from 1990 to 2010. The City’s housing units almost doubled in the 20 years between 1990 and 2010, growing at a compound annual growth rate of 3.2 percent. The City’s housing growth between 1990 and 2010 is summarized in Table 3.10-5. Table 3.10-5: San Ramon Historic Housing Growth Year

Dwelling Units

Change from Previous (Percent)

1990

13,531

—

1995

15,486

14.4

2000

17,476

12.9

2005

19,908

13.9

2010

25,558

28.4

Net Change

12,027

88.8

Compound Annual Growth Rate

3.2

—

Source: California Department of Finance, 2010.

Regional Housing Needs Allocation

State law requires local governments to provide housing for persons of all income ranges. The State has prioritized housing production by requiring cities and counties periodically to update the housing element of their General Plan, which is the document that outlines the community’s long-term growth strategy. The amount of housing that must be accounted for in a local housing element is determined through a process called the Regional Housing Needs Allocation (RHNA). In the RHNA process, the State gives each region a number representing the amount of housing needed, based on existing need and expected population growth. In the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area region, ABAG is responsible for assigning each city and county allocation targets for housing by income range. Local governments then revise their housing elements to identify development sites and housing policies that will allow the community to meet its housing needs. ABAG’s latest RHNA was issued in June 2008 and guides the production of affordable housing through 2014. The allocations were based on several weighted factors, including projected household growth, existing and projected employment, and proximity to public transit. Table 3.10-6 identifies San Ramon’s housing allocation.

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City of San Ramon – North Camino Ramon Specific Plan Draft EIR

Population and Housing

Table 3.10-6: Regional Housing Needs Allocation (2007-2014) Income Category

Dwelling Unit Allocation

Very Low (Up to 50% of Contra Costa County’s median income)

1,174

Low (Up to 80% of Contra Costa County’s median income)

715

Moderate (Up to 120% of Contra Costa County’s median income)

740

Above Moderate (Above 120% of Contra Costa County’s median income)

834

Total

3,463

Source: Association of Bay Area Governments, 2008.

3.10.3 - Regulatory Framework Local City of San Ramon General Plan 2030

General Plan 2030 sets forth the following guiding and implementing policies that are relevant to population and housing: • Implementing Policy 2.3-I-6: Encourage housing for San Ramon’s resident workforce to

improve the match between local employment and local workers. • Implementing Policy 3.1-G-1: Manage the City’s growth in a way that balances existing and planned transportation facilities, protection of open space and ridgelines, provision of diverse housing options, and the preservation of high quality community facilities and services. • Implementing Policy 3.1-I-3: Provide a variety of diverse housing options to accommodate the local employment base, including public service employees. • Implementing Policy 3.1-I-4: Allocate the number of new housing units according to the

• • • • •

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City’s ability to provide public services and housing needs through the use of adopted performance standards. Refer to Table 3.2-1 [of the General Plan]. Implementing Policy 3.1-I-5: Use growth management policies to encourage the construction of workforce housing necessary to meet local housing needs. Guiding Policy 3.6-G-1: Promote the opportunity to both work and live in San Ramon through implementation of the Housing Element. Implementing Policy 3.6-I-1: Develop and implement housing programs that emphasize the availability of housing for people who work in local jobs. Implementing Policy 3.6-I-2: Evaluate the impact of proposed General Plan Amendments on the availability of job and housing opportunities. Implementing Policy 3.6-I-3: Prepare a biennial report on the implementation of actions outlined in the Housing Element, for submittal to Contra Costa Transportation Authority as part of the biennial Growth Management Program Compliance Checklist. The report will

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City of San Ramon – North Camino Ramon Specific Plan Draft EIR

Population and Housing

demonstrate reasonable progress by illustrating how San Ramon has adequately planned to

•

• •

•

•

meet the existing and projected housing needs through the adoption of land use plans and regulatory systems that provide opportunities for, and do not unduly constrain, housing development. Implementing Policy 4.6-I-3: Assess the City’s future needs for housing and employment along with any development proposals and if changes are necessary, provide an opportunity for voter review of the Urban Growth Boundary in the year 2015. Implementing Policy 4.6-I-10: Provide a wide range of housing opportunities for current and future residents. Implementing Policy 4.6-I-19: Promote the revitalization and infill development in existing retail shopping centers, which are identified as mixed use centers on the General Plan Diagram, to provide opportunities for housing and other compatible non-retail uses. Implementing Policy 4.6-I-21: Promote incentives that will provide for density and FAR bonuses for mixed use development that includes amenities for public benefit, such as workforce housing, pedestrian-oriented facilities (outdoor seating, plazas, weather protection, transit waiting areas), historic preservation, cultural facilities, public art and water features, and open space preservation. Implementing Policy 4.7-I-4: Prepare and implement a North Camino Ramon Specific Plan (NCRSP) as framework for infill development that is pedestrian/bicycle friendly, mixed use, and a transit oriented and based on the smart growth principles. The plan shall retain and provide opportunities for existing businesses, complement the City Center Project, and incorporate flexibility to encourage innovative designs. The Plan envisions an average Plan Area floor area ratio (FAR) of up to 0.7. Projects providing community benefit consistent with the Specific Plan will be able to obtain maximum FAR densities. Additional FAR increases based on workforce housing incentives may be considered. The major components in the plan area shall provide opportunities for mid to large floorplate retail, vertical and horizontal mixeduse development including workforce housing, in proximity to new and existing jobs. This specific plan should include as a minimum the following elements: - Land Use Program, including an interim use and transitional land use provisions. - Provide opportunities for the continuation of Service Commercial uses within the Plan Area. - Open Space/Public Space Plan. - Design Guidelines, which may include a Form Based Code approach that regulates size mass and standard design elements to streamline implementation. - Implementation program, including cost of and responsibility for necessary capital and other improvements, financing measures, plan administration and enforcement, etc. - Develop a workforce housing program affordable to a combination of extremely low, very low, low, or moderate-income households. - Consistency with the redevelopment plan in those overlapping plan areas

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Population and Housing

City of San Ramon – North Camino Ramon Specific Plan Draft EIR

• Implementing Policy 7.3-I-4: Encourage the development of a variety of housing and

• •

•

• •

• •

•

•

•

•

recreational opportunities for senior citizens close to City services and facilities, including transportation. Guiding Policy 11.21-G-1: Provide a diversity of housing types and affordability levels within San Ramon to meet the needs of community residents. Implementing Policy 11.1-I-1: Identify sites appropriate for the development of a variety of housing types and price ranges to meet the needs of all socioeconomic segments of the community (including extremely low, very low, low, moderate, and above moderate income households). Implementing Policy 11.1-I-2: Encourage the development of housing for special needs groups, including seniors, large families, persons with disabilities, and the homeless near public transportation services. Implementing Policy 11.1-I-3: Facilitate the development of affordable housing throughout the community through use of financial and/or regulatory incentives, where feasible. Implementing Policy 11.1-I-4: Negotiate with developers to ensure a portion of future residential development is affordable to extremely low, very low, low, and moderate income households. Implementing Policy 11.1-I-5: Maintain a variety of housing types that complements the employment opportunities within the community and encourages a jobs/housing balance. Implementing Policy 11.1-I-6: Require diversity of unit size and number of bedrooms within multi-family housing developments (exempting senior projects) and strive to provide threeand four-bedroom units for large families. This policy will be implemented through guidelines published by the Housing Advisory Committee (HAC). Implementing Policy 11.1-I-7: Offer financial and regulatory incentives to promote a combination of residential, retail, and office uses in areas designated for mixed use development. Implementing Policy 11.1-I-11: Ensure that non-residential development contributes to the supply of housing affordable to lower-income households, including extremely low-income households. Implementing Policy 11.1-I-12: Disperse below-market rate (BMR) housing throughout residential neighborhoods, and ensure that affordable units are essentially indistinguishable from surrounding market-rate units. This policy will be implemented through guidelines published by the Housing Advisory Committee (HAC). Implementing Policy 11.1-I-13: Encourage developers to provide amenities for a diversity of households, including single heads of households, persons with disabilities, seniors, and

extended families. • Implementing Policy 11.1-I-14: Utilize affordable housing agreements, when appropriate, to encourage a full range of housing types. • Implementing Policy 11.1-I-18: Require commercial development to contribute to the supply of workforce housing through new construction, partnerships with non-profit affordable 3.10-6

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City of San Ramon – North Camino Ramon Specific Plan Draft EIR

Population and Housing

housing providers, or payment of linkage fees; exempt mixed use development projects from • •

•

• • • •

this policy as they are already subject to the 25 percent affordable housing requirement. Guiding Policy 11.21-G-2: Create safe and aesthetically pleasing neighborhoods, and provide adequate housing to meet the needs of all household types and income groups. Implementing Policy 11.2-I-1: Promote increased awareness of the importance of property maintenance to long-term housing quality and engage the community to preserve neighborhoods. Implementing Policy 11.2-I-5: Ensure that units produced for lower and moderate income households are maintained at designated income levels for the term established in the entitlement. Implementing Policy 11.2-I-6: Work to preserve the affordability of publicly assisted housing units and to discourage their conversion to market-rate housing. Implementing Policy 11.2-I-7: Ensure that the design, scale, and buffering of housing retains the character of the surrounding neighborhood. Guiding Policy 11.21-G-3: Ensure all persons and household types have equal access to housing in San Ramon. Implementing Policy 11.3-I-1: Collaborate with and support efforts of organizations dedicated to eliminating housing discrimination in San Ramon.

• Implementing Policy 11.3-I-2: Participate in programs and provide incentives for projects that •

• • •

include housing for seniors, lower and moderate income households, and special needs groups. Implementing Policy 11.3-I-3: Encourage the provision of housing with supportive services for special needs groups, such as the homeless, persons with disabilities, and victims of domestic violence. Implementing Policy 11.3-I-4: Encourage the provision of housing to meet the needs of families of all sizes. Implementing Policy 11.3-I-5: Support and provide funding to organizations that assist the homeless. Implementing Policy 11.4-I-2: Promote a combination of residential, retail, and office uses in areas designated for mixed use.

3.10.4 - Methodology Impacts on population and housing were assessed by reviewing existing and anticipated population and housing figures provided by the California Department of Finance, the City of San Ramon General Plan, and ABAG. The proposed project’s impacts were evaluated by determining their consistency with these estimates and projections. 3.10.5 - Thresholds of Significance According to Appendix G, Environmental Checklist, of the CEQA Guidelines, population and housing impacts resulting from the implementation of the proposed project would be considered significant if the project would: Michael Brandman Associates H:\Client (PN-JN)\2491\24910011\3 - Draft EIR\24910011 Sec03-10 Population and Housing.doc

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Population and Housing

City of San Ramon – North Camino Ramon Specific Plan Draft EIR

a) Induce substantial population growth in an area, either directly (for example, by proposing new homes and businesses) or indirectly (for example, through extension of roads or other infrastructure)? b) Displace substantial numbers of existing housing, necessitating the construction of replacement housing elsewhere? (Refer to Section 7, Effects Found Not To Be Significant.) c) Displace substantial numbers of people, necessitating the construction of replacement housing elsewhere? (Refer to Section 7, Effects Found Not To Be Significant) 3.10.6 - Project Impacts and Mitigation Measures This section discusses potential impacts associated with the development of the project and provides mitigation measures where appropriate. Population Inducement Impact POP-1:

The proposed Specific Plan would not induce substantial population growth.

Impact Analysis

CEQA Guidelines Section 15126.2(d) requires that an EIR discuss the ways in which the proposed project could foster economic or population growth, or the construction of additional housing, either directly or indirectly, in the surrounding environment. The CEQA Guidelines provide the example of a major expansion of a wastewater treatment plant that may allow for more construction within the service area. The CEQA Guidelines also note that the evaluation of growth inducement should consider the characteristics of a project that may encourage or facilitate other activities that could significantly affect the environment. This impact analysis will first discuss the potential for direct and indirect growth inducement and then address consistency with regional population and growth projections. Direct and Indirect Growth Inducement

Direct growth consists of activities that directly facilitate population growth. The construction of new dwelling units is considered an activity that directly results in population growth. Indirect growth inducements consist of activities that in themselves do not facilitate population growth, but instead indirectly cause growth. Examples include the creation of new jobs in a sparsely populated area that results in workers moving into the area or the removal of a physical barrier to growth, such as the extension of sewer service to an unserved area. A key consideration in evaluating growth inducement is whether the activity in question constitutes “planned growth.” A residential project that is consistent with the underlying General Plan and zoning designations would generally be considered planned growth because it was previously contemplated by these long-range documents and, thus, would not be deemed to have a significant growth-inducing effect. Likewise, a project that requires a General Plan Amendment and re-zone to develop more intense uses than are currently allowed may be considered to have a substantial growth3.10-8

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City of San Ramon – North Camino Ramon Specific Plan Draft EIR

Population and Housing

inducing effect because such intensity was not contemplated by the applicable long-range documents. It should be noted that these are hypothetical examples and conclusions about the potential for growth inducement will vary on a case-by-case basis. The proposed project consists of the implementation of the North Camino Ramon Specific Plan and related development and land uses. The Specific Plan is a tool for the systematic implementation of the San Ramon General Plan and establishes a link between the policies of the General Plan and the individual development proposals in the Specific Plan area. Thus, development and land use activities that occur within the Specific Plan boundaries that are consistent with the Specific Plan are inherently “planned growth.” As such, the development of housing within the North Camino Ramon Specific Plan area would not be considered growth-inducing. Development and land use activities contemplated by the Specific Plan would include the expansion or redevelopment of roads, potable water, recycled water, wastewater, and stormwater facilities. However, the plan area is already served by such services; therefore, the expansion would not result in indirect growth. Furthermore, the implementation of increased commercial space would not cause indirect growth since significant commercial space already exists in the plan area, which is located in already highly urbanized region with a sufficient workforce. In summary, development of land use and infrastructure that are contemplated by the Specific Plan would not have significant direct or indirect growth-inducing effects. Consistency with Regional Growth Projections

Evaluating consistency with regional growth projections is a second way for assessing growth inducement potential, particularly for long-range planning documents such as a Specific Plan. In the nine-county San Francisco Bay region, ABAG oversees regional growth forecasts and regularly issues updates to Projections, its official population and employment estimate document. ABAG’s forecasts are used in various regional planning activities, including air quality management and affordable housing strategies. The most recent version of Projections was issued in 2009. Table 3.10-7 compares population and employment projections for 2030 as forecast by the proposed General Plan 2030 and ABAG’s 2009 Projections. As shown in the table, the proposed General Plan 2030 anticipates more population and employment growth than does ABAG. Table 3.10-7: San Ramon Population and Employment Projections (2030) 2030 Projections

Category

General Plan 2030

ABAG

Population

92,031

85,200

Employment

58,769

49,490

Source: City of San Ramon 2010; Association of Bay Area Governments, 2009.

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Population and Housing

City of San Ramon – North Camino Ramon Specific Plan Draft EIR

The discrepancy between the City of San Ramon General Plan’s and ABAG’s population and employment growth figures is not new and dates back at least a decade. Furthermore, the discrepancy is largely attributable to population growth that has occurred in the Dougherty Valley, which has added more than 20,000 persons to the San Ramon population. The existing General Plan projected higher population and employment growth than several ABAG forecasts, including the most recent (Projections 2009). Furthermore, historic population growth during the past decade has matched the General Plan 2020’s projections more closely than ABAG’s various forecasts. Refer to Section 2, Project Description for further discussion of this issue. Regardless, as previously noted, ABAG’s growth estimates are used for various regional planning activities. Because the Specific Plan’s growth is included in the General Plan 2030, it would not further exacerbate the City of San Ramon’s exceedance of ABAG growth estimates. Regional Housing Needs Allocation

The General Plan 2030 Housing Element currently contemplates the development of 1,124 dwelling units within the Specific Plan area. The Specific Plan contemplates as many as 1,500 dwelling units, a net increase of 376 dwelling units relative to General Plan 2030. As such, the Specific Plan is consistent with the Housing Element’s housing projections for the Specific Plan area. Furthermore, Policy LUD-7.7 would require each residential project to provide a minimum of 15 percent of the units as affordable workforce housing, resulting in approximately a minimum of 225 affordable housing units at buildout. These dedicated affordable housing units would contribute to fulfilling the City’s RHNA. Therefore, the proposed project’s residential development would be consistent with local and regional housing strategies. Level of Significance Before Mitigation

Less than significant impact. Mitigation Measures

No mitigation is necessary. Level of Significance After Mitigation

Less than significant impact.

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