PASADENA GENERAL PLAN DRAFT EIR CITY OF PASADENA
5. Environmental Analysis
5.10 POPULATION AND HOUSING This section of the Draft Environmental Impact Report (DEIR) examines the potential for environmental impacts to result from implementation of the proposed General Plan Update related to changes in population, employment, and the demand for housing, including housing cost/rent ranges defined as “affordable.” Analysis in this section is partially based on population, housing, and employment data from the following sources:
US Census. The official United States Census is described in Article I, Section 2 of the Constitution of the United States. It calls for an actual enumeration of the people every 10 years, to be used for apportionment among the states of seats in the House of Representatives. The United States Census Bureau publishes population and household data gathered in the decennial census. This information provides a record of historical growth rates in Los Angeles County and the City of Pasadena.
California Department of Finance. The Department of Finance (DOF) prepares and administers California’s annual budget. Other duties include estimating population demographics and enrollment projections. DOF’s “Table E-5: City/County Population and Housing Estimates,” reports on population and housing estimates for the state, counties, and cities, January 2011–2013, benchmarked to base year 2010.
Southern California Association of Governments. Policies and programs adopted by SCAG to achieve regional objectives are expressed in its 2012 RTP/SCS.
5.10.1 Environmental Setting Regulatory Setting California Housing Element Law California planning and zoning law requires each city and county to adopt a general plan for future growth (California Government Code Section 65300). This plan must include a housing element that identifies housing needs for all economic segments and provides opportunities for housing development to meet that need. At the state level, the Housing and Community Development Department (HCD) estimates the relative share of California’s projected population growth that would occur in each county based on California Department of Finance (DOF) population projections and historical growth trends. These figures are compiled by HCD in a Regional Housing Needs Assessment (RHNA) for each region of California. Where there is a regional council of governments, HCD provides the RHNA to the council. Such is the case for the City of Pasadena, which is a member of SCAG. The council, in this case SCAG, then assigns a share of the regional housing need to each of its cities and counties. The process of assigning shares gives cities and counties the opportunity to comment on the proposed allocations. HCD oversees the process to ensure that the council of governments distributes its share of the state’s projected housing need.
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State law recognizes the vital role local governments play in the supply and affordability of housing. To that end, California Government Code requires that the housing element achieve legislative goals to: Identify adequate sites to facilitate and encourage the development, maintenance, and improvement of housing for households of all economic levels, including persons with disabilities. Remove, as legally feasible and appropriate, governmental constraints to the production, maintenance, and improvement of housing for persons of all incomes, including those with disabilities. Assist in the development of adequate housing to meet the needs of low and moderate income households. Conserve and improve the condition of housing and neighborhoods, including existing affordable housing. Promote housing opportunities for all persons regardless of race, religion, sex, marital status, ancestry, national origin, color, familial status, or disability. Preserve for lower income households the publicly assisted multifamily housing developments in each community. The State of California housing element laws (Section 65580 to 65589 of the California Government Code) require that each city and county identify and analyze existing and projected housing needs within its jurisdiction and prepare goals, policies, and programs to further the development, improvement, and preservation of housing for all economic segments of the community commensurate with local housing needs. 2014–2021 Pasadena Housing Element
The City’s most recent housing was adopted by City Council on February 3, 2014. For the 2014–2021 planning period, SCAG determined that Pasadena’s RHNA allocation was 1,332 units. Consistent with state housing law, the 2014–2021 Housing Element demonstrates that the City can accommodate its RHNA allocation through the construction of planned residential projects and utilization of its inventory of appropriate housing sites. The Housing Element also identifies goals, policies, and programs designed to address the City’s overall housing needs.
Regional Planning Refer to Section 4.2.2 of this DEIR, for a detailed description of SCAG, the 2012-2035 Regional Transportation Plan/Sustainable Communities Strategy (RTP/SCS), and the Compass Growth Vision (CGV) program.
Southern California Association of Governments SCAG is a council of governments representing Imperial, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, and Ventura counties. SCAG is the federally recognized metropolitan planning organization (MPO) for this region, which encompasses over 38,000 square miles. SCAG actions in the San Gabriel Valley subregion that includes Pasadena are partially the result of input from the San Gabriel Valley Council of Governments, which offers recommendations regarding SCAG’s initiatives. Page 5.10-2
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5. Environmental Analysis POPULATION AND HOUSING
Regional Transportation Plan/Sustainable Communities Strategy
As stated in Section 4 of this EIR, SCAG adopted the 2012–2035 RTP/SCS on April 4, 2012. SCAG has placed a greater emphasis than ever on sustainability and integrated planning. The RTP/SCS vision encompasses three principles that collectively work as the key to the region’s future: mobility, economy, and sustainability. The RTP/SCS includes a strong commitment to reduce emissions from transportation sources to comply with Senate Bill 375, improve public health, and meet the National Ambient Air Quality Standards. It provides a blueprint for improving quality of life for residents by providing more choices for where they will live, work, and play and how they will move around (SCAG 2012). Following adoption of the RTP/SCS, SCAG identified the region’s High Quality Transit Areas (HQTA). In Pasadena, all of the Central District and areas surrounding Metro Gold Line Districts are identified as HQTAs.
San Gabriel Valley Council of Governments The San Gabriel Valley Council of Governments (SGVCOG) is a joint powers authority made up of representatives from 31 cities, 3 Los Angeles County Supervisorial Districts, and the 3 Municipal Water Districts located in the San Gabriel Valley. The SGVCOG serves as a regional voice for difficult issues faced by its member agencies and works to improve the quality of life for the more than 2 million residents living in the San Gabriel Valley. The SGVCOG has adopted policies on open space, water, energy and housing. SGVOG population, housing, and job forecasts are used to compare the City within the context of the surrounding region.
Population Trends Table 5.10-1 shows population and housing data collected by the U.S. Census Bureau during the last two decennial censuses. Table 5.10-1 San Gabriel Valley1 Population Dwelling Units City of Pasadena Population Dwelling Units
Census Data for San Gabriel Valley and City of Pasadena, 2000–2010
Change, 2000–2010 Percent
2000
2010
Total
1,817,026 566,961
1,846,796 594,375
29,770 27,414
1.6 4.6
133,936 54,132
137,122 59,551
3,186 5,419
2.4 10.0
Source: U.S. Census 2013a. 1 Census data for the SGV was calculated using data for the four Census County Divisions that are roughly coterminous with the SGVCOG’s definition of the region: the East SGV, Pasadena, Southwest San SGV, and Upper SGV.
As shown in Table 5.10-1, the SGV’s population grew 1.6 percent between 2000 and 2010, and Pasadena’s grew at a slightly higher 2.4 percent. During the same period, this pattern was also true for housing growth; the number of dwelling units in the SGV grew by 4.6 percent between 2000 and 2010, and Pasadena’s housing stock grew by 10 percent.
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Unlike Table 5.10-1, which shows overall positive growth in Pasadena and the SGV between 2000 and 2010, Table 5.10-2, which identifies yearly population figures, illustrates that the last decade has been a period of slow, sometimes negative, population growth in both planning areas. Table 5.10-2
Population Growth Trends in Pasadena and the San Gabriel Valley
Year
Population1
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
133,936 134,119 135,744 137,416 137,555 137,501 136,411 135,424 135,305 136,502 137,122 138,768 139,291 140,020
City of Pasadena
Percent Change
Population1,2
N/A 0.14 1.21 1.23 0.10 -0.04 -0.79 -0.72 -0.09 0.88 0.45 1.20 0.38 0.52
1,487,742 1,497,813 1,508,802 1,518,690 1,520,909 1,518,465 1,507,869 1,498,382 1,493,891 1,493,187 1,491,404 1,496,235 1,502,642 1,511,959
San Gabriel Valley Percent Change
N/A 0.68 0.73 0.66 0.15 -0.16 -0.70 -0.63 -0.30 -0.05 -0.12 0.32 0.43 0.62
Source: DOF 2012, DOF 2013a. 1 Population counts for the years 2000 and 2010 are derived from U.S. Census data; counts for other years consist of estimates calculated by the DOF. 2 Population estimates for the SGV were calculated using estimates for the 31 cities that compose the SGVCOG’s definition of the region and do not account for the region’s unincorporated areas. This accounts for the difference between the 2010 population shown in Table 5.10-1 and the one shown here.
The City of Pasadena is estimated to have lost population between 2005 and 2008, and the region is estimated to have lost population between 2005 and 2010. Despite this period, which roughly corresponds to the timing of the 2007–2009 economic recession, growth in Pasadena and the SGV is beginning to accelerate. The DOF estimates Pasadena’s current (2013) population at 140,020. This is slightly higher than the population of 135,928 shown in Chapter 4 of this DEIR, which is used to define the existing conditions baseline for the proposed project.
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5. Environmental Analysis Figure 5.10-1
San Gabriel Valley Council of Governments Area
2 210 210
oun
ty
210 110
5
10
Bern
ardi
no C
57
San
10
710
71
605
60
60
LEGEND
39 5
Unincorporated Area City Boundary City of Pasadena San Gabriel Valley
57
Orange County CITY OF PASADENA
GENERAL PLAN UPDATE
Source: San Gabriel Valley COG, 2012
DRAFT EIR
PRA-06.0L 0
10/2/2014 2.5
5
MILES
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Population Forecasts Population forecasts for the City of Pasadena and SGV (excluding unincorporated areas) are listed in Table 5.10-3. The 2020 and 2035 population forecasts are from the SCAG 2012 RTP/SCS Regional Forecast. Table 5.10-3 Forecast
Population Households Employment
Adopted SCAG Growth Forecasts City of Pasadena1 2020 2035
143,400 58,400 124,400
152,500 61,400 131,300
San Gabriel Valley2 2020 2035
1,588,100 496,200 708,600
1,714,300 524,800 728,700
Increase, 2013–2035 Pasadena SGV2
13,885 5,422 19,299
Percent Increase, 2013–2035 Pasadena SGV2
202,341 57,495 44,000
10% 9.7% 17.2%
13.4% 12.3% 6.4%
Source: SCAG 2012. 1 Note that SCAG projections are for the City only and not the entire planning area or the City’s sphere of influence. 2 Population estimates for the SGV were calculated using estimates for the 31 cities that compose the SGVCOG’s definition of the region and do not include for the region’s unincorporated areas.
As shown in the table, the population of the City is forecast to increase to 152,500 by 2035, an increase of 16,572, or 12 percent, beyond its 2013 population (as stated in Chapter 3 of this DEIR). The percentage increase forecast for the City is less than the SGV’s projected population growth of 13 percent. The City is projected to grow by an average of 753 persons per year, and the SGV’s projected growth rate is 9,197 persons per year.
Housing Trends Housing units and households as counted in the 2010 Census, 2013 DOF estimates, and SCAG forecasts for 2020 and 2035 for the City of Pasadena and SGV are shown in Tables 5.10-4 and 5.10-5. The existing housing units identified in the Census and DOF are close to the 59,641 existing housing units identified in Table 4-1. Table 5.10-4
Existing Housing Units and Households in Pasadena 2010 U.S. Census
2013 DOF Estimate
San Gabriel Valley1 Housing Units Households Vacant Housing Units Vacancy Rate
488,279 465,624 22,625 4.6%
490,052 467,305 22,747 4.6%
City of Pasadena2 Housing Units Households Vacant Housing Units Vacancy Rate
59,551 55,270 4,281 7.2%
60,314 55,978 4,336 7.2%
Source: DOF 2013b, U.S. Census 2013a. 1 Census and DOF 2013 estimates for the SGV were calculated using estimates for the 31 cities that compose the region and do not account for unincorporated areas. 2 Note that Census and DOF figures for Pasadena are for the City only and not the entire planning area or the City’s sphere of influence.
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The housing vacancy rate in the City of Pasadena was 7.2 percent in 2010, as reported in the 2010 Census, and in 2013 as estimated by the DOF. Of the 4,281 vacant housing units counted in the Census, 2,268 units—53 percent of the total—were for rent or rented but not occupied, and 713 or 16 percent of the total were for sale or sold but not occupied. Of the remaining vacant units, 472 were for seasonal or recreational use and the balance, 828 units, were uncategorized. The SGV’s vacancy rate, at 4.6 percent, is much lower than the City’s rate (U.S. Census 2013a). Table 5.10-5
Household Forecasts Existing Conditions
2020
San Gabriel Valley
467,305
Pasadena
55,978
SCAG Forecasts
2035
Increase, 2013–2035
Percent Increase, 2013–2035
496,200
524,800
57,495
12.3%
58,400
61,400
5,422
9.7%
Source: DOF 2013b, SCAG 2012.
Between 2013 and 2035, the number of households is forecast to increase by 9.7 percent in the City of Pasadena and 12.3 percent in the SGV.
Housing Tenure Tenure refers to whether a household owns or rents a home. As of the 2010 Census, 45 percent (24,863) of households owned a home and 55 percent (30,407) rented a home in Pasadena. Pasadena’s rate of homeownership is substantially lower than the 60 percent rate for the SGV (U.S. Census 2013a).
Housing Unit Types Housing units in Pasadena are classified by unit type in Table 5.10-6. Table 5.10-6
Housing Units in Pasadena by Unit Type Number of Units
Percent of Units
Single-Family Detached
26,411
43.8%
Single-Family Attached
4,155
6.9%
Multifamily (2 to 4 Units)
5,231
8.7%
Multifamily (5+ units)
24,387
40.4%
130
0.2%
60,314
100%
Mobile Homes Total Units Source: DOF 2013b.
As shown in the table, existing housing in Pasadena consists of a near equal balance between multifamily units (49.1 percent) and single-family units (50.9 percent).
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Household Size The average household size was reported as 2.42 persons in Pasadena and 2.98 persons in Los Angeles County in the 2010 U.S. Census.
Current and Future Housing Needs The City of Pasadena Housing Element, which was adopted on February 3, 2014, provides a thorough discussion as well as goals and policies to address issues of housing affordability. Regional Housing Needs Allocation
The RHNA is mandated by state housing law as part of the periodic process of updating housing elements of local general plans. State law requires that housing elements identify RHNA targets set by California’s Department of Housing and Community Development to encourage each jurisdiction in the state to provide its fair share of very low, low, moderate, and upper income housing. The RHNA does not promote growth, but provides a long-term outline for housing within the context of local and regional trends and housing production goals. SCAG determines total housing need for each community in southern California based on three general factors: 1) the number of housing units needed to accommodate future population and employment growth; 2) the number of additional units needed to allow for housing vacancies; and 3) the number of very low, low, moderate, and above moderate income households needed in the community. Additional factors used to determine the RHNA include tenure, the average rate of units needed to replace housing units demolished, and other factors. The City of Pasadena’s RHNA allocation for the 2014–2021 period was approved in 2012 and is shown in Table 5.10-7. The City is required to ensure that sufficient sites planned and zoned for housing are available to accommodate its need and to implement proactive programs that facilitate and encourage the production of housing commensurate with its housing needs. Table 5.10-7
City of Pasadena Regional Housing Needs Allocation for 2014–2021
Income Category
Very Low Low Moderate Above Moderate
RHNA
Definition
Number of Units
50% or Less of MFI1 51–80% of MFI 81–120% of MFI above 120% of MFI
340 207 224 561
25.5% 15.5% 16.8% 42.1%
1,332
100%
Total
Percentage
Source: SCAG 2011. 1 MFI – median family income
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Employment Table 5.10-8 shows the City’s workforce by occupation and industry. According to estimates calculated by the U.S. Census for 2012 (the most recent year available), the City of Pasadena had an employed civilian labor force (16 years and older) of 68,954. The largest occupational category is “management, business, science, and arts occupations,” which accounts for 55.3 percent of the civilian jobs available in the City (U.S. Census 2013b). During the 2007–2011 period, the City’s workforce was 8.1 percent of the SGV’s employed civilian workforce of 847,509 (U.S. Census 2013c). It should be noted that these statistics describe the employment status of Pasadena residents and do not account for the many employees who work in Pasadena but live elsewhere. As discussed in Chapter 3, Projection Description, of this DEIR, it is estimated that land uses in Pasadena currently employ approximately 111,348 people. Table 5.10-8
Existing Pasadena Employment by Business Sector, 2012 Occupation/Industry
Occupation Management, business, science, and arts occupations Service occupations Sales and office occupations Natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations Production, transportation, and material moving occupations Total Industry Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, and mining Construction Manufacturing Wholesale trade Retail trade Transportation and warehousing, and utilities Information Finance and insurance, and real estate and rental and leasing Professional, scientific, and management, and administrative and waste management services Educational services, and health care and social assistance Arts, entertainment, and recreation, and accommodation and food services Other services, except public administration Public administration Total
Number
Percent
38,156 10,030 14,670 2,531 3,567
55.3% 14.5% 21.3% 3.7% 5.2%
68,954
100%
80 2,391 3,868 1,490 5,477 1,362 3,963 4,471
0.1% 3.5% 5.6% 2.2% 7.9% 2.0% 5.7% 6.5%
11,694
17.0%
19,555 7,138 4,004 3,461
28.4% 10.4% 5.8% 5.0%
68,954
100%
Source: U.S. Census 2013b. Note: Employment figures count civilian employees only. Existing employment identified in Chapter 3 of this DEIR is based on employment generation based on nonresidential building square footage by land use type.
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Employment Trends According to the California Employment Development Department (EDD), Pasadena lost jobs in the City during the first half of the 2000s and again in the late 2000s. Most recently, the City lost jobs in 2008, 2009, and 2010, years considered the height of the nationwide recession. EDD’s employment estimates for 2011, 2012, and 2013 indicate that employment growth has begun to accelerate in Pasadena. However, employment in the City has not yet reached the peak level of 2007. Numerical employment and annual employment change in Pasadena are shown in Table 5.10-9. As mentioned before, the employment statistics shown here do not account for all jobs in Pasadena. As discussed in Chapter 3 of this DEIR, it is estimated that land uses in Pasadena currently employ approximately 111,348 people. Despite this difference in enumeration methodology, the figures in Table 5.109 accurately illustrate overall employment trends in the community. Table 5.10-9 Year
Historic Employment Growth Trends in Pasadena
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20132
Total Employment (Persons)1
Percent Change
70,600 71,600 71,000 70,700 71,100 72,000 73,100 73,900 72,900 69,200 68,600 69,000 69,400 72,700
N/A 1.4% -0.8% -0.4% 0.6% 1.3% 1.5% 1.1% -1.4% -5.1% -0.9% 0.6% 0.6% 4.8%
Source: EDD 2013. 1 Estimates are not seasonally adjusted. Employment is defined as the number of individuals, aged 16 years or older, who are working. Existing employment identified in Chapter 3 of this DEIR is based on employment generation based on nonresidential building square footage by land use type. 2 Preliminary estimate for October 2013.
Employment Forecasts Employment forecasts for Pasadena and the SGV are shown in Table 5.10-10. An employment figure for existing conditions in the SGV that was calculated using the same methodology and geographic boundary as SCAG employment forecasts is not available. Therefore, “existing conditions” for the SGV uses SCAG’s 2008 employment estimates for the 31 cities that constitute the SGV.
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Table 5.10-10
Employment Forecasts Existing Conditions
2020
SCAG Forecasts
2035
Increase, 2013–2035
Percent Increase, 2013–2035
San Gabriel Valley1
684,7002 (2008)
708,600
728,700
44,000 (2008–2035)
6.4% (2008–2035)
Pasadena
111,348
124,400
131,300
19,952
17.9%
Source: DOF 2013b, SCAG 2012. 1 SCAG forecasts for the SGV were calculated using forecasts for the 31 cities that compose the SGVCOG’s definition of the region and do not account for the region’s unincorporated areas. 2 SCAG estimate for 2008. A more recent figure that is calculated using the same methodology and geographic boundary as SCAG employment forecasts is not available.
As shown in Table 5.10-10, employment is forecast to grow at a healthy pace between now and 2035 in both Pasadena (17.9 percent) and the SGV (6.4 percent). Employment growth in Pasadena is expected to outpace that in the San Gabriel Valley.
5.10.2 Thresholds of Significance According to Appendix G of the CEQA Guidelines, a project would normally have a significant effect on the environment if the project would: P-1
Induce substantial population growth in an area, either directly (for example, by proposing new homes and businesses) or indirectly (for example, through extension of roads or other infrastructure).
P-2
Displace substantial numbers of existing housing, necessitating the construction of replacement housing elsewhere.
P-3
Displace substantial numbers of people, necessitating the construction of replacement housing elsewhere?
The Initial Study, included as Appendix B, substantiates that impacts associated with the following thresholds would be less than significant: Thresholds P-2 and P-3 These impacts will not be addressed in the following analysis.
5.10.3 Environmental Impacts The following impact analysis addresses the threshold of significance for which the Initial Study disclosed potentially significant impacts.
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Methodology The project area’s demographics are examined in the context of existing and projected population for the San Gabriel Valley (SGV) as identified by the SGVCOG—see Figure 5.10-1, San Gabriel Valley—and the City of Pasadena. The SGV is preferred over Los Angeles County for providing regional context because of the very large population of Los Angeles County—estimated at approximately 9.96 million people in 2013 (DOF 2013). The SGV is an east-west-trending valley bounded by the San Gabriel Mountains to the north; the Puente Hills and Orange County to the south; San Bernardino County to the east; and the Repetto Hills and San Rafael Hills to the west. The City of Pasadena is in the northwest part of the SGV. The region spans 400 square miles and encompasses 31 incorporated cities as well as several large unincorporated areas of Los Angeles County. Because not all data sources have information for the subregion in its entirety, aggregated data for the subregion’s 31 cities is used to represent the subregion. Impact 5.10-1:
The proposed General Plan Update would directly and indirectly result in population growth in Pasadena. [Threshold P-1]
Impact Analysis: One of the purposes of the General Plan Update is to adequately plan and accommodate future growth. As discussed in Chapter 3, Project Description, of this DEIR, implementation of the proposed land use plan would result in buildout of approximately 71,953 dwelling units and could accommodate approximately 163,411 residents. In 2013, the population of the City of Pasadena was approximately 135,938. Buildout in accordance with the General Plan Update would therefore result in a population increase of 27,473, a 20.2 percent increase in population compared to existing conditions. The increase of 12,312 dwelling units would be a 20.6 percent increase compared to existing conditions. Buildout of the proposed General Plan would involve the extensive redevelopment and intensification of major corridors and specific plan areas in the City, including allowing higher intensity development in the City’s Central District. New and expanded land uses in these areas would accommodate approximately 10.99 million additional square feet of nonresidential space compared to existing conditions and would, together with existing employment-generating land uses, provide 151,671 jobs. Pasadena currently provides approximately 111,348 jobs. Buildout in accordance with the General Plan Update would therefore result in 40,323 additional jobs in the City, a substantial increase in employment compared to existing conditions and an increase that would indirectly induce population growth. Therefore, 2035 buildout of the proposed land use plan would markedly increase the population and number of jobs compared to existing conditions in the planning area.
Relationship between Jobs and Housing The jobs-housing ratio is a general measure of the total number of jobs to housing units in a defined geographic area, without regard to economic constraints or individual preferences. The balance of jobs and housing in an area—in the total number of jobs and housing units as well as the type of jobs versus the price of housing—has implications for mobility, air quality, and the distribution of tax revenues.
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Jobs-housing balance is somewhat of an artificial construct, since even in a “balanced” community, in- and out-commuting between it and other parts of a region is to be expected. However, the jobs-housing ratio is one indicator of a project’s effect on growth and quality of life in the project area. Furthermore, although full jobs-housing balance may not be an appropriate goal for the City of Pasadena, analysis of the relationship between jobs and housing at the regional level is useful because it takes into account regional commuting patterns and regional land use patterns. SCAG applies the jobs-housing ratio at the regional and subregional levels to analyze the fit between jobs, housing, and infrastructure. A major focus of SCAG’s regional planning efforts has been to improve this balance. No ideal jobs-housing ratio has been adopted in state, regional, or city policies; jobs-housing goals and ratios are advisory only. SCAG applies the jobs-housing ratio at the regional and subregional level as a tool for analyzing the fit between jobs, housing, and infrastructure. The American Planning Association (APA) is an authoritative resource for community planning best practices, including recommendations for assessing jobs-housing ratios. Although the APA recognizes that an ideal jobs-housing ratio will vary from jurisdiction to jurisdiction, its recommended target is about 1.5, with a recommended range of 1.3 to 1.7 (Weltz 2003). A well-balanced ratio of jobs and housing reduces commuting trips because more employment opportunities are closer to residential areas. Such a reduction in vehicle trips lowers levels of air pollutant emissions (including lower greenhouse gas emissions) and causes less congestion on area roadways and intersections.
Pasadena Jobs-Housing Ratio The following objectives for the proposed project, identified in Chapter 3, Project Description, recognize the relationship between jobs and housing: Growth will be targeted to serve community needs and enhance the quality of life. Higher density development will be directed away from residential neighborhoods and into the Central District, Transit Villages, and Neighborhood Villages (Objective 1). These areas will have a diverse housing stock, job opportunities, exciting districts with commercial and recreational uses, and transit opportunities (Objective 2). New development will build upon Pasadena’s tradition of strong sense of place, great neighborhoods, gardens, plazas, parks, and trees (Objective 3). Pasadena will be an economically vital city by providing jobs, services, revenues, and opportunities. A diverse economic base with jobs for Pasadena residents will be fostered (Objective 5); existing businesses will be encouraged to stay or expand; affordable housing will be provided for the labor pool; the continued fiscal health of the City will be ensured. Importantly, the City’s proposed General Plan will reduce greenhouse gas emissions per capita and encourage walking, biking, transit, and other alternatives to motor vehicles by creating strategies to encourage nonautomotive travel and protect residential neighborhoods consistent with AB 32, SB 375, and SB 743 (Objective 8) Full buildout of the proposed General Plan Update is not anticipated to occur in the near future. However, this EIR is tasked with determining the significance of impacts based on the development potential allowed under the proposed project. Based on this standard, buildout of the proposed project would result in population growth of 20.2 percent. When averaged between 2013 and 2035, this is an annual population Page 5.10-14
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growth of approximately 1 percent, which is consistent with expected regional growth. Table 5.10-11 compares planning area buildout projections for population, households, and employment to SCAG projections. SCAG projects that the City will remain jobs-rich in 2035, with a jobs-housing ratio of just over 2. The table shows that buildout projections for population, household and employment growth under the proposed project exceed, but do not substantially exceed, 2035 estimates projected for the City by SCAG. Existing and forecast jobs-housing balances for Pasadena are shown in Table 5.10-11. The table shows that the jobs-housing balance in Pasadena in 2013 was 1.87, indicating that the City is jobs-rich. SCAG anticipates this ratio to increase to 2.03 by 2035. Buildout of the City in accordance with the proposed Land Use Diagram would be nearly consistent with this expectation, increasing the City’s job-housing balance to 2.11. Table 5.10-11
Comparison of SCAG and General Plan Buildout Projections for Pasadena Existing 2013 Conditions
2020
Population
135,938
Households
56,6592
Housing Units Employment Jobs-Housing Ratio
SCAG Projections1
2035
Project Buildout
143,400
152,500
163,411
58,400
61,400
68,9262
59,641
61,4743
64,6313
71,953
111,348
124,400
131,300
151,671
1.87
2.02
2.03
2.11
Source: SCAG 2012. 1 Note that SCAG projections are for the City only and not the entire planning area or the City’s sphere of influence. 2 Household estimates for existing conditions and project buildout are calculated based on number of housing units and a vacancy rate of 5%. 3 Housing units in SCAG projections are estimated based on number of households and a vacancy rate of 5%.
San Gabriel Valley Jobs-Housing Ratio Table 5.10-12 compares population, housing, and employment projections by the City of Pasadena to SCAG’s projections for the City and the SGV in 2035. Buildout under the General Plan Update would increase SCAG projections for the City by 10,911 people, 20,371 employees, and 7,322 dwelling units. As Table 5.10-12 illustrates, when this difference is added to SCAG’s 2035 projections for the SGV region, the jobs-housing ratio for the SGV becomes slightly more balanced at 1.34 (versus 1.32). SCAG’s 2035 projections for the SGV are used as a comparison since growth will occur in the region with or without implementation of the proposed project. This method of analysis demonstrates the proposed project’s long-term contribution to future jobs-housing balance in the region. Note that a comparison between existing conditions in the SGV (a jobs-housing ratio of 1.47) and the SGV region with General Plan buildout (a jobs housing ratio of 1.51) is less meaningful because the difference in housing units and jobs generated between the two is largely a function of growth elsewhere in the region, not growth resulting from Pasadena’s contribution to regional conditions. However, both scenarios demonstrate that the proposed project would slightly improve and not drastically change the overall jobs-housing balance in the SGV. Therefore, although the General Plan Update would result in increased population and employment growth beyond SCAG projections, it would create a more balanced jobs-housing ratio for the region compared to future projections. As a result, population increases projected for the SGV region would locate in areas with
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closer proximity to jobs and employment centers reducing vehicle miles traveled in the region. This allows a greater number of residents in the region to live and work in the City and surrounding areas. This benefit to the region ensures that population growth impacts are less than significant. Table 5.10-12
Population Housing Units Employment Jobs-Housing Ratio
Comparison of SCAG and General Plan Buildout Projections for Pasadena and the SGV 2035 SCAG Projections for City of Pasadena1
2035 General Plan Buildout Projections
Difference between SCAG and General Plan
2035 SCAG Projections for SGV2
SGV plus Difference
152,500 64,6313 131,300 2.03
163,411 71,953 151,671 2.11
10,911 7,322 20,371 -
1,714,300 552,4163 728,700 1.32
1,725,211 559,738 749,071 1.34
Source: SCAG 2012. 1 Note that SCAG projections are for the City only and not the entire planning area or the City’s sphere of influence. 2 Population estimates for the SGV were calculated using estimates for the 31 cities that compose the SGVCOG’s definition of the region and do not account for the region’s unincorporated areas. 3 Housing units in SCAG projections are estimated based on number of households and a vacancy rate of 5%.
General Plan Policies related to Jobs-Housing Balance Policies in the proposed General Plan address the relationship between local employment and housing. Land Use Policies 2.5, 4.2, 4.4, 4.8, 11.1, 12.6, 26.1, 26.2, 27.1, and 28.1 both directly and indirectly promote the creation of new jobs for City residents. Additional policies in the Land Use and Mobility elements pertaining to the creation of transit villages promote the location of jobs and housing near each-other. These policies are aimed at giving residents the option to live near work or live where transit easily connects them to their place of employment.
Consistency with SCAG’s Compass Growth Vision SCAG identifies large portions of Pasadena as high quality transit areas (HQTAs) including most of central Pasadena and neighborhoods around Metro Gold Line stations. As discussed in Section 5.8, Land Use and Planning, of this DEIR, an HQTA is a walkable transit village or corridor that is within one-half-mile of a well-serviced transit corridor. The purpose of identifying these areas is to balance employment, housing, and services on a regional level to reduce vehicle miles traveled, reduce air pollutant emissions, enhance livability, expand prosperity, and increase sustainability in the SCAG region. The General Plan Update is consistent with the HQTA map, because it encourages an intensified mix of uses along the City’s major corridors to reduce vehicle miles traveled. Buildout of the General Plan Update would increase livability by providing higher density housing and commercial opportunities along corridors where a range of transportation modes is available. The proposed General Plan is consistent with SCAG’s vision for the area and proposed implementation of the HQTA goals because it accommodates population growth in the SCAG region, encourages growth in existing and emerging centers and along major transportation corridors, encourages mixed-use opportunities, and promotes employment opportunities in the housing-rich region.
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Conclusion The population, housing, and employment projections for buildout of the proposed project would exceed, but not substantially exceed, SCAG’s growth forecasts for the City of Pasadena. Implementation of the General Plan Update would directly induce population growth in the area. However, the General Plan Update accommodates future growth in the City by providing for infrastructure and public services to accommodate this projected growth (see Chapter 5.7, Hydrology and Water Quality, Chapter 5.11, Public Services, Chapter 5.13, Transportation and Traffic, and Chapter 5.14, Utilities and Service Systems). Furthermore, population growth would be offset by employment growth accommodated by the General Plan Update, which would provide employment opportunities for new residents and create a slightly more balanced jobs-housing ratio for the SGV region. Therefore, implementation of the proposed project would result in a less than significant impact relating to population growth.
5.10.4 Relevant General Plan Policies Adopted Housing Element Goal HE 2. An adequate supply and diversity of quality rental and ownership housing opportunities suited to residents of varying lifestyle needs and income levels.
HE 2.1: Housing Diversity. Facilitate and encourage diversity in types, prices, ownership, and size of single-family homes, apartments, town homes, mixed-uses, transit-oriented developments, and work/live housing, among others.
HE 2.2: Strategic Growth. Direct new residential development into the Central District, neighborhood, and transit villages to create neighborhoods where people can live and work, shop, and benefit from access to a Gold Line station or public transit.
HE 2.3: Environmental Sustainability. Encourage sustainable patterns of residential growth and preservation with respect to land use, building and site design, resource conservation, open space, and health considerations.
HE 2.4: Affordable Housing. Facilitate a mix of household income and affordability levels in residential projects and the appropriate dispersal of such units to achieve greater integration of affordable housing throughout the City.
HE 2.6: Housing Incentives. Facilitate the development of affordable housing through regulatory concessions, financial assistance, density bonuses, the inclusionary housing program, and other City and outside agency programs.
Goal HE 3. Expand, protect, and preserve opportunities for households to find and retain housing in Pasadena and afford a greater choice of rental and homeownership opportunities. January 2015
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HE 3.1: Financial Resources. Pursue and maximize the use of state, federal, local, and private funds for the development, preservation, and rehabilitation of housing affordable to lower and moderate income households.
HE 3.4: Preservation of Affordable Housing. Establish and seek to renew long-term affordability covenants for all City-assisted housing projects; support the conservation of unassisted housing that is affordable to lower income households consistent with state law.
HE 3.7: Workforce Housing. Work with major employers, educational institutions, health care institutions, and other employers within Pasadena to facilitate and encourage the development of workforce housing opportunities.
HE 3.9: Geographic Dispersal. Promote a balanced geographical dispersal of assisted affordable housing developments and associated supportive social services for individuals and households throughout the community.
Social Development Element
As soon as the necessary criteria and methods are developed and adopted, the City shall determine and evaluate the social impacts of major physical, environmental, economic and social changes, where the City has appropriate authority. The social impacts of such changes shall be given at least equal standing with other factors in determining their acceptability.
Proposed Land Use Element Goal 2: Land Use Diversity. A mix of land uses meeting the diverse needs of Pasadena’s residents and businesses, fostering improved housing conditions, offering a variety of employment and recreation opportunities, and supporting a healthy population while protecting the environment.
Policy 2.1: Housing Choices. Provide opportunities for a full range of housing types, densities, locations, and affordability levels to address the community’s fair share of regional, senior, and workforce housing needs and provide a strong customer base sustaining the economic vitality of Pasadena’s commercial land uses. The types, densities, and location of housing shall be determined by the Land Use Diagram and reflect the projected needs specified in the Housing Element.
Policy 2.2: Senior Housing. Encourage the development of senior housing that has access to commercial services, health care facilities, community facilities, and public transit.
Policy 2.3: Commercial Businesses. Designate sufficient land to enable a broad range of viable commercial uses in Pasadena’s Central District, Transit and Neighborhood Villages and commercial corridors. These uses will serve both local and regional needs, reducing the need for residents to travel to
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adjoining communities, capturing a greater share of local spending, and offering a diversity of employment opportunities.
Policy 2.4: Job Choices. Provide opportunities for the development of a broad range of land uses that offer job opportunities for Pasadena’s residents, including professional and creative office, institutional and research and development (R&D) flex space.
Policy 2.5: Mixed Use. Create opportunities for development projects that mix housing with commercial uses to enable Pasadena’s residents to live close to businesses and employment, increasing non-auto travel, and interact socially.
Goal 26: Offices. A diversity of professional, creative, medical, research, and other offices offering attractive job opportunities for residents, and serving as a centerpiece of Pasadena’s economy.
Policy 26.1: Office. Encourage the orderly development and expansion of office uses based upon current conditions and future projects to improve the relationship of jobs and housing in certain areas of the City.
5.10.5 Existing Regulations and Standard Conditions No regulations apply to population and housing.
5.10.6 Level of Significance Before Mitigation Impact 5.10-1 would be less than significant.
5.10.7 Mitigation Measures No mitigation is required.
5.10.8 Level of Significance After Mitigation Impacts would be less than significant, and no significant and unavoidable impact would occur.
5.10.9 References California Department of Finance (DOF). 2012. Report E-4: Population Estimates for Cities, Counties, and the State, 2001–2010, with 2000 & 2010 Census Counts. http://www.dof.ca.gov/research/demographic/reports/estimates/e-4/2001-10/view.php. ———. 2013a. Report E-1: Population Estimates for Cities, Counties, and the State, January 1, 2012 and 2013. http://www.dof.ca.gov/research/demographic/reports/estimates/e-1/view.php.
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———. 2013b. Report E-5: Population and Housing Estimates for Cities, Counties, and the State, January 1, 2011–2013, with 2010 Benchmark. http://www.dof.ca.gov/research/demographic/reports/estimates/e-5/2011-20/view.php. California Employment Development Department (EDD). 2013. Labor Force and Unemployment Rate for Cities and Census Designated Places. http://www.labormarketinfo.edd.ca.gov/. City of Pasadena. 2013. City of Pasadena Public Review Draft 2014–2021 Housing Element. http://cityofpasadena.net/Housing_Element_Update/. Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG). 2011. Draft Regional Housing Needs Allocation (by Components and Income). 1/1/2014–9/30/2021. http://rtpscs.scag.ca.gov/Documents/rhna/draftRHNAcomponentsIncome.pdf. ———. 2012, April. 2012–2035 Regional Transportation Plan/Sustainable Communities Strategy. http://rtpscs.scag.ca.gov/Pages/2012-2035-RTP-SCS.aspx. U.S. Census Bureau (U.S. Census). 2013a. 2000 and 2010 Demographic Profile Data. American FactFinder. http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/index.xhtml ———. 2013b. 2012 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates. American FactFinder. http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/searchresults.xhtml?refresh=t. ———. 2013c. 2007–2011 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates. American FactFinder. http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/searchresults.xhtml?refresh=t. Weltz, Jerry. 2003. Planning Advisory Service Report Number 516: Jobs-Housing Balance. American Planning Association.
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