SECTION 4.5: POPULATION, EMPLOYMENT, AND HOUSING

4.5

POPULATION, EMPLOYMENT, AND HOUSING

Introduction This section evaluates existing and projected population, employment, and housing conditions associated with the proposed Corridor Plan and Bay Meadows project. Population, employment, and housing data is based primarily upon the 1995 City of San Mateo General Plan and the Association of Bay Area Governments' (ABAG) Projections 2003. Population projections contained within Projections 2003 are based on smart growth policies, which focus estimates of population growth in areas of transit corridors and urbanized areas. These materials are on file and available for public review at the San Mateo Community Development Department, Planning Division. Throughout this section, references to the Corridor Plan Area include the Bay Meadows project site unless otherwise noted. The setting discussion prepared for the Corridor Plan Area would also be applicable to the regional and local vicinity conditions of the Bay Meadows project site. Discussion of impacts and corresponding mitigation measures are provided separately for each project.

Existing Conditions Employment San Mateo County San Mateo County had a total of 395,890 jobs in 2000, with a projected increase of approximately 24 percent to 489,020 jobs by 2020, as indicated in Table 4.5-1 (Census 2000; ABAG, 2003). In 2000, the number of employed residents in San Mateo County was 403,083. This number is expected to increase approximately 17 percent to 469,020 employed residents by 2020. For 2020, ABAG estimates that there would be a net job inflow (the difference between the number of jobs and the number of employed residents) of 19,320 jobs in San Mateo County). This net job inflow means that there will be more jobs than employed residents in the County; therefore, an increasing number of residents will travel from outside the County to employment locations within the County. City of San Mateo In 2000, the City had roughly 60,130 of the County's 395,890 jobs, or approximately 15 percent. As shown in Table 4.5-1, employment in the City is predicted to grow approximately 25 percent between 2000 and 2020, an increase of 15,110 jobs from 60,130 to 75,240. As shown in Table 4.5-2, the largest amount of the growth is expected to occur in the Service category. Despite the growth, the City’s share of the County’s jobs is expected to remain at approximately 15 percent.

San Mateo Corridor Plan and Bay Meadows Specific Plan Amendment EIR

4.5-1

EDAW, Inc.

SECTION 4.5: POPULATION, EMPLOYMENT, AND HOUSING

Table 4.5-1 Households, Population, Employed Residents, and Jobs for San Mateo and Nearby Cities, 2000 and 2020 TOTAL 2000

AREA

San Mateo Households Population Employed Residents Jobs Jobs/Housing Ratioa

TOTAL 2020

CHANGE 2000-2020

37,338 92,482 57,067 60,130 1.05

43,60 109,300 68,350 75,240 1.10

+ 6,262 + 16,818 + 11,283 + 15,110

San Mateo and Nearby Citiesb Households Population Employed Residents Jobs Jobs/Housing Ratio

123,040 309,229 163,468 207,800 1.21

138,340 352,700 231,660 250,940 1.08

+ 15,300 + 43,471 + 68,192 + 43,140

San Mateo County Households Population Employed Residents Jobs Jobs/Housing Ratio

254,103 707,161 403,083 395,890 .98

288,190 813,300 496,700 489,020 1.04

+ 34,087 + 106,139 + 66,617 +93,130

a

Jobs/Housing ratio = number of jobs/employed residents.

b

Includes San Mateo, Redwood City, Foster City, Belmont, Burlingame, San Carlos, Millbrae, and Hillsborough, which are the San Mateo County cities closest to the project area.

Source:

Census 2000, ABAG 2003

Table 4.5-2 Recent and Projected Employment Growth in San Mateo by Employment Category EMPLOYMENT TYPE

2000

PERCENT OF TOTAL JOBS

GROWTH 2000-2020

2020

PERCENT OF TOTAL JOBS

Retail Service Manufacturing and Wholesale Other a TOTAL

10,380 27,960 5,060 17,750 61,150

17.0 45.7 8.3 29.0 100

4,450 5,040 1,690 4,450 15,630

14,830 33,000 6,750 22,200 76,780

19.3 43.0 8.8 28.9 100

a

Includes agriculture and mining, finance, insurance, and real estate (FIRE); government; construction; and transportation, communications, and utilities (TCU)

Source: ABAG 2003

San Mateo Corridor Plan and Bay Meadows Specific Plan Amendment EIR

4.5-2

EDAW, Inc.

SECTION 4.5: POPULATION, EMPLOYMENT, AND HOUSING

Corridor Plan Area Employment estimates for the Corridor Plan Area were extrapolated from Transportation Analysis Zones (TAZs) provided by Economic and Planning Systems Inc. TAZs are defined as the smallest selected geographic area used in the analysis of transportation activity. TAZs may be as small as a single Census Block, may combine several Census Blocks, or may cut across Census Block boundaries (Sullivan, 2003). Since some of the TAZs overlap and extend beyond the boundaries of the Corridor Plan Area, data was extrapolated from these TAZs based on the portion of a given TAZ located within the Corridor Plan Area and the percentage of that TAZ known to be zoned residential and commercial. The Corridor Plan Area encompasses 634 households, including approximately 1,900 residents, 1,050 of whom are employed. There are approximately 9,875 people working in the Corridor Plan Area, including 5,090 at retail jobs, 495 at manufacturing jobs, 2,990 at service jobs, and 1,300 in other fields (Sullivan, 2003). Bay Meadows Project Site Existing uses on the 83-acre Bay Meadows project site employ a total of 905 people, including full-time, seasonal/part-time, and casual laborers, as shown in Table 4.5-3. Approximately 505 of these employees work directly for the Bay Meadows Operating Company (BMOC) (the current operator of the racetrack), as full-time and seasonal/part-time employees. In addition to the employees who work directly for the BMOC, casual laborers work at the track on a full- and part-time basis in conjunction with horse racing operations. Casual laborers include horse trainers, jockeys, groomsmen, etc. It is estimated that there are as many as 400 casual laborers employed by the trainers or horse owners on the site, as indicated in Table 4.5-3. Of these laborers, there are approximately 200 stable personnel living on the Bay Meadows grounds. These workers live in the 53 dormitory-type units and five barns on the site. Of the 400 casual laborers, approximately 30 live there permanently and as many as 170 use temporary on-site accommodations (Scalzo, 2003). Bay Meadows employs residents of San Mateo and nearby communities, as well as other residents of the Bay Area and beyond. Of the 505 of the Bay Meadows employees who are full- and part-time employees of BMOC, approximately 14 percent reside within the City of San Mateo, with an additional 22 percent not in the City but in San Mateo County.1 The remaining 64 percent are distributed throughout San Francisco, Alameda, and Contra Costa Counties and beyond (Scalzo, 2003).

Population and Housing San Mateo County According to ABAG estimates, San Mateo County had a total population of 707,161 residents in 2000. This population is predicted to increase by approximately 15 percent to 813,300 in 2020, as shown in Table 4.5-1.

1

Additional employees, including casual laborers (i.e. Exercise Riders, trainers, jockeys, etc.) and people who work in the mutuels department, are not employees BMOC and therefore no residence data are available for those workers.

San Mateo Corridor Plan and Bay Meadows Specific Plan Amendment EIR

4.5-3

EDAW, Inc.

SECTION 4.5: POPULATION, EMPLOYMENT, AND HOUSING

In 2000, the total number of households was 254,103 (Census 2000). By 2020, it is anticipated that the number of households will increase by approximately 13 percent to 288,190 households. Table 4.5-3 Existing Bay Meadows Operating Company Employment DEPARTMENT

# OF EMPLOYEES

# WHO LIVE IN CITY

FULL TIME Administration 6 1 Catering 17 4 Video 3 0 Security 20 5 Racing 6 1 Operations 12 6 Mutuels 21 * Maintenance 52 3 Marketing/Group Sales 11 2 Total Full-Time 148 22 SEASONAL/PART-TIME Administration 1 0 Catering 137 20 Video 11 0 Security 18 4 Racing 58 13 Operations 45 10 Mutuels 34 * Maintenance 36 0 Marketing/Group Sales 17 2 Total Seasonal/Part-Time 357 49 CASUAL LABORERS WORKING ON GROUNDS Grooms in Stable Area Varies * Exercise Riders Varies * Trainers Varies * Jockeys Varies * Jockey Agents Varies * Veterinarians Varies * Farriers Varies * Miscellaneous Stable Help Varies * Pony Outriders Varies * * Total Non-Employees approx. 400 TOTAL 905 71 *

# WHO LIVE IN COUNTY BUT NOT CITY

2 7 3 5 0 2 * 19 5 43 0 19 3 7 2 14 * 17 8 70 * * * * * * * * * *

113

Location of residence data not available because these employees are not employed by the Bay Meadows Operating Company (BMOC).

Source: Scalzo, 2003

Between 1990 and 2000, approximately 12,189 households were added countywide (a five percent increase). Over half of the countywide household growth (56 percent) between 1990 and 2000 occurred in Daly City, San Mateo and Redwood City combined. Between 1990 and 2000, the countywide average household size

San Mateo Corridor Plan and Bay Meadows Specific Plan Amendment EIR

4.5-4

EDAW, Inc.

SECTION 4.5: POPULATION, EMPLOYMENT, AND HOUSING

rose from 2.64 people to 2.74, a four percent increase (Census 2000). Average household size is expected to continue to rise, peaking at 2.78 between 2010 and 2020 and then falling slightly to 2.77 by 2025. In 2001, single family homes in San Mateo County sold for an estimated median price of $590,000 and sold for an average price of $792,735. Condominiums and townhouses sold for an estimated median price of $384,600 and sold for an average price of $407,406 (Human Services Agency, 2001). San Mateo County's strategic location contributes to its demand for housing. The 25-year growth forecast for the County projects an increase of approximately 34,820 households, with 13,627 new households estimated between 2000 and 2010, and 28,790 between 2011 and 2025. Redwood City, San Mateo, East Palo Alto, Daly City, and South San Francisco are expected to experience the largest absolute gains in the number of households. During the same period, the population is expected to increase by 127,237 people (ABAG, 2003). City of San Mateo ABAG estimates that the City of San Mateo had 92,482 residents in 2000. This population is projected to increase approximately 18 percent to 109,300 in 2020, as shown in Table 4.5-1. In 2000, the total number of households was 37,338. By 2020, it is anticipated that the number of households will increase by 17 percent to 43,600. In 2000, the City of San Mateo had an average household size of 2.44 people (Census 2000). Average household size is expected to increase to 2.48 by 2020 (ABAG 2003). San Mateo's housing conditions and needs are reflective of many regional and national trends. For example, changes in household characteristics, such as a higher divorce rate and the trend towards later marriages, have created more single-parent and single-person households. These changes, plus strong employment growth and a lack of available land, have created a substantial housing demand and have caused housing prices to increase “beyond the level of affordability,” according to the City of San Mateo General Plan, Vision 2010 (City of San Mateo, 1995). The most dramatic aspect of the City’s housing situation is the cost of housing. From 1960 to 1990, property values rose by 1,700 percent, with median prices increasing from $19,500 to $348,800. During this same period, household income increased only 500 percent, from $8,150 to $42,894 per year. From 1990 to 2000, median prices increased to $477,300. Although from 1990 to 1999, median household income increased to $64,757 (an increase of 50 percent), the difference in the inflation of home values and household income levels has resulted in a critical housing affordability gap (City of San Mateo, 2003). The City of San Mateo’s housing stock has been increasing, but at a declining rate since the 1960s due to the lack of vacant land. The number of housing units increased from 23,011 in 1960 to 29,363 in 1970 (a 28 percent increase), and to 34,240 in 1980 (a 17 percent increase). Between 1996 and 2002, the following

San Mateo Corridor Plan and Bay Meadows Specific Plan Amendment EIR

4.5-5

EDAW, Inc.

SECTION 4.5: POPULATION, EMPLOYMENT, AND HOUSING

number of units were constructed each year in San Mateo: 97, 538, 78, 368, 636, 67, and 322, respectively.2 In 2003, there were an estimated 38,805 housing units (greater than 13 percent growth rate over 20 years). San Mateo’s housing stock has historically been dominated by single-family dwellings, but this is changing. Vacant land zoned for new single-family development has become extremely limited, and redevelopment of sites for multi-family housing at higher densities has increased. The trend towards multi-family housing also reflects the high costs of single-family homes. The percentage of the City’s housing stock that is single-family homes has decreased from 78 percent in 1960 to 46.2 percent in 2000. Multi-family apartments with five or more units represent 35.3 percent of the total housing stock (City of San Mateo, 2003). San Mateo changed from an owner-dominated housing market in the 1970s due to increases in apartment construction. During the 1980s, condominium construction and the conversion of apartments to condominiums reversed this trend. The mix of housing in 2000 was 53.9 percent owner-occupied and 46.1 percent renter-occupied housing. Vacancy rates provide a quantifiable measurement of housing supply and demand. A vacancy rate of 4.5 percent is defined by ABAG as a well balanced housing market, where those seeking housing have adequate choices and building owners have sufficient demand. San Mateo’s vacancy rate averaged 4 percent during the 1980s, was 4.3 percent as reported in the 1990 census, and was 2.4 percent in 2000 (Census 2000). While San Mateo appears to be characteristic of maturing suburban communities on the peninsula that have depleted most of their available supply of vacant residential land, strong pro-housing policies by the City have encouraged population growth during the past decade (ABAG, 2002). Corridor Plan Area In 2000, approximately 1,900 people resided within the Corridor Plan Area, living in approximately 630 households. The average home value in the first quarter of 2001 in the Corridor Plan Area was approximately $557,000, equivalent to the rest of the City (EPS, 2001). Jobs/Housing Balance The jobs-housing balance concept is used to examine whether an area has a balance between its housing supply and employment base. An area that has too many jobs relative to its housing supply is likely to (absent offsetting factors) experience relatively rapid escalations in housing prices and intensified pressure for additional residential development. Conversely, if an area has relatively few jobs in comparison to employed residents, many of the workers are required to commute to jobs located outside the area of residence. The resulting traffic patterns can lead to road congestion and reductions in both local and regional air quality.

2

These numbers are reported for the City’s fiscal year (July 1 – June 30) rather than the calendar year.

San Mateo Corridor Plan and Bay Meadows Specific Plan Amendment EIR

4.5-6

EDAW, Inc.

SECTION 4.5: POPULATION, EMPLOYMENT, AND HOUSING

The simplest measure of jobs-housing balance is an index based on the ratio of jobs to employed residents in the area, with an index of 1.0 indicating a jobs-housing balance. An index above 1.0 indicates there are more jobs than employed residents and may suggest that many employees are commuting in from outside the community. An index below 1.0 indicates that there are more employed residents than jobs and may suggest that many residents are commuting to jobs located outside the community. The jobs-housing balance index for San Mateo is shown in Table 4.5-1, above. It should be noted that jobshousing indices are more useful for examining the potential for “self-containment” at the regional level than in determining whether this self-sufficiency actually exists in a given community. Even if communities have a statistical balance between jobs and housing, they are still very likely to experience in-commuting and outcommuting, given the variety and dispersed nature of employment and residential opportunities elsewhere in the region and the high level of mobility offered by automobiles. To include a more regional-level analysis, the jobs-housing balance index for San Mateo, nearby cities (Redwood City, Foster City, Belmont, Burlingame, San Carlos, Millbrae, and Hillsborough), and San Mateo County are included in the table. As shown in Table 4.5-1, the jobs/housing ratio in the City of San Mateo is nearly balanced, with a 2000 employment level of 60,130 jobs and a labor force of 57,067 employed residents, as indicated by ABAG. ABAG projects an increase of 15,110 jobs in the City of San Mateo by 2020 and an increase in the resident labor force of 11,283 people, thereby slightly increasing the jobs/housing ratio from 1.05 in 2000 to 1.10 in 2020.3 By 2020, the jobs/housing ratio for the defined region of San Mateo and nearby cities would become more balanced, decreasing from a ratio of 1.21 to 1.08. The jobs/housing ratio for the County would increase from 0.98 to 1.04.

Relevant Regulations and Plans City of San Mateo General Plan The Housing Element (updated in 2003) of the City of San Mateo General Plan serves to identify major problems and resources associated with the provision of housing in the City. It provides policy direction in meeting the housing needs of the City, both in terms of preservation of existing housing and in establishing priorities for new construction. The Housing Element contains an analysis of housing development potential and constraints. Within this analysis, the redevelopment of commercially zoned properties to residential development is allowed, with the exception of service commercial and manufacturing districts due to safety concerns. A land use inventory conducted in 2001 contained within the Housing Element estimated a maximum new housing potential of 2,553 units for the City based on zoning, available land, and allowable densities in place at the time of the inventory. This figure includes the redevelopment of all commercial and residentially zoned properties. Housing units constructed in the City in the fiscal years 1999-2000, 2000-01, 2001-02, and 2002-03 were 368, 636, 67, and 322, respectively.

3

These ratios are calculated by dividing the number of jobs by the number of employed residents.

San Mateo Corridor Plan and Bay Meadows Specific Plan Amendment EIR

4.5-7

EDAW, Inc.

SECTION 4.5: POPULATION, EMPLOYMENT, AND HOUSING

In addition to encouraging housing development within the Downtown and other commercial areas, a major objective of the General Plan is to provide incentives for mixed use (residential and commercial) development along the El Camino Real (SR 82) as a means of changing the strip commercial character of this thoroughfare. Specifically, Policy H2.11 of the Housing Element states: “Continue the policy of encouraging residential uses in existing commercial areas where the residences can be buffered from noise and safety concerns and can provide adequate on-site parking and usable open space. Provide floor area and/or height bonuses for residential development in selected areas of the City.” Goals and policies from the Housing Element that may be relevant to the projects studied in this EIR include the following: GOAL 1: Maintain the character and physical quality of residential neighborhoods. H 1.1: Residential Protection. Protect established single-family and multi-family residential areas by the following actions: •

Prevent the intrusion of incompatible uses not indicated in the Land Use Element as allowed in residential districts;

•

Avoid the over concentration on individual blocks of non-residential uses defined by the Land Use Element as being "potentially compatible" in residential areas;

•

Assure that adequate buffers are provided between residential and non-residential uses to provide design compatibility, protect privacy, and protect residences from impacts such as noise; and

•

Review development proposals for conformance to the City's multi-family design guidelines for sites located in areas which contain substantial numbers of single-family homes to achieve projects more in keeping with the design character of single-family dwellings.

H 1.2: Single-Family Preservation. Preserve existing single-family neighborhoods through the following actions: 1. Maintain intact single-family neighborhoods as shown on the Land Use Map; and 2. Require on-site buffering in the design of new multi-family developments which abut single-family districts to assure privacy and reduce noise impacts. GOAL 2: Provide a diversity of housing types, responsive to household size, income, and age needs. H 2.1: Fair Share Housing Allocation. Attempt to achieve compliance with ABAG Fair Share Housing Allocation for total housing needs and for low- and moderate-income needs. H 2.2: Jobs/Housing Balance. Maintain an overall balance of housing and employment within the community over the term of the Plan. H 2.3: Public Funding of Low- and Moderate-Income Housing. Continue to use available funds to increase the supply of low- and moderate-income housing through land purchases and other development

San Mateo Corridor Plan and Bay Meadows Specific Plan Amendment EIR

4.5-8

EDAW, Inc.

SECTION 4.5: POPULATION, EMPLOYMENT, AND HOUSING

encouragements and through use of non-profit sponsors and subsidized financing using federal and State sources, tax credits, and the like. H 2.4: Private Development of Affordable Housing. Encourage the provision of affordable housing by the private sector through: 1. Requiring that a percentage of the units, excluding bonus units, in specified residential projects be affordable. 2. Requiring construction or subsidy of new affordable housing as a condition for approval of any commercial development which affects the demand for housing in the City. 3. Providing density bonuses and priority processing for projects which qualify for density bonuses under State law. H 2.6: Rental Housing. Encourage development of rental housing for households unable to afford ownership housing. H 2.8: Multi-Family Location. Provide for the development of multi-family housing to create a diversity of available housing types as follows: 1. Maintain the following sites or areas for multi-family land use: a. Commercial sites on East Bayshore Road between Cypress and East Poplar avenues, b. The Bay Meadows practice track, c. Manufacturing sites on Woodside Way near Villa Terrace, d. The Elks Club site on 20th Avenue, e. The church, nursery, and adjacent office sites on El Camino Real (SR 82) at Monte Diablo Avenue, f. The warehouse site at Railroad and Cypress avenues, g. The Callan properties north of Campus Drive, and h. Properties on Corte de Flores, and adjoining portions of Edison and Flores streets. 2. Permit reclassification to multi-family zoning or other properties which meet the following criteria: a. Have adequate size to allow for a self-contained housing development and include adequate on-site parking and usable open space; b. Have good access to arterial streets; c. Maintain a reasonable buffer to single-family districts; and d. Constitute a logical extension of existing multi-family development at compatible and appropriate densities or are zoned for commercial use. H 2.9: Housing Densities. Re-examine permitted densities in multi-family districts to: 1. Provide a density range, with densities at the higher end of the range to be considered based on provision of public benefits such as affordable housing, increased open space, public recreational facilities, or off-site infrastructure improvements. 2. More closely relate maximum densities to those which can be reasonably achieved given other zoning constraints, and 3. Ensure that inappropriate densities are not permitted for lots of less than one-half acre. H 2.11: Mixed Use. Continue the policy of encouraging residential uses in existing commercial areas where the residences can be buffered from noise and safety concerns and can provide adequate on-site parking and

San Mateo Corridor Plan and Bay Meadows Specific Plan Amendment EIR

4.5-9

EDAW, Inc.

SECTION 4.5: POPULATION, EMPLOYMENT, AND HOUSING

usable open space. Provide floor area and/or height bonuses for residential development in selected areas of the City.

Impacts and Mitigation Measures Significance Criteria According to Appendix G of the CEQA Guidelines, a project may be deemed to have a significant impact on the environment if it would: •

Induce substantial population growth in an area, either directly (for example, by proposing new homes and businesses) or indirectly (for example, through extension of roads or other infrastructure);

•

Displace substantial numbers of existing housing, necessitating the construction of replacement housing elsewhere; or

•

Displace substantial numbers of people, necessitating the construction of replacement housing elsewhere.4

Corridor Plan Impacts and Mitigation Measures Construction-Related Population Growth Impact Population-CP1: Construction activities associated with the proposed Corridor Plan (Scenarios A and Z) would result in temporary increases in employment in the City. This would be a less than significant impact. Project construction activities would occur on-and-off throughout the planning horizon of the Corridor Plan (Scenarios A and Z). While it would be speculative to estimate the number of workers that would be involved with construction projects during the buildout of the Corridor Plan, it is reasonable to assume that there would be some increase associated with construction of the Corridor Plan (either Scenario A or Z). The number of construction workers would fluctuate depending upon varying levels of construction activity. According to ABAG Projections 2003, 18,860 residents of San Mateo County are employed in the construction industry. This existing number of residents in the County who are employed in the construction industry would likely be sufficient to meet the demand for construction workers that would be generated by the development activities associated with the Corridor Plan. Some construction workers serving the proposed development can be expected to come from the City of San Mateo itself, with a larger number coming from nearby communities in the County and greater Bay Area. As a result, substantial population growth or increases in housing demand in the region as a result of these jobs is not anticipated. Furthermore, even if 4

It should be noted that the Bay Meadows Specific Plan & Route 101/Hillsdale Interchange Modifications Project EIR, prepared for the Bay Meadows Specific Plan, included an impact addressing employment displacement. Since 1996, when that EIR was published, the CEQA Guidelines changed and no longer provide a criterion for assessing that type of impact. As such, an equivalent analysis was not provided here.

San Mateo Corridor Plan and Bay Meadows Specific Plan Amendment EIR

4.5-10

EDAW, Inc.

SECTION 4.5: POPULATION, EMPLOYMENT, AND HOUSING

some construction workers from outside the region were employed in the Corridor Plan Area, construction workers typically do not change residences when assigned to a new construction site, and it is not anticipated that there would be any substantial permanent relocation of these construction workers to the City of San Mateo. The Corridor Plan would therefore not be expected to generate the need for substantial additional housing in the City or County as a result of individual project development and construction related to the Corridor Plan. Because of these conditions, impacts related to population growth and housing demand associated with construction are considered less than significant. Mitigation Measure Population-CP1: None required. ____________________ Population Inducement Impact Population-CP2: The proposed Corridor Plan (Scenarios A and Z) would result in the development of new homes, which would result in direct increases in City population. This would be a less than significant impact. The Corridor Plan (Scenarios A and Z) includes proposals for new housing that would result in direct increases in population in the Corridor Plan Area. The Corridor Plan includes the development of a maximum of 4,031 new housing units under Scenario Z by 2020. Projected population for the Corridor Plan has been calculated by using the City average of 2.48 persons per household for the housing units.5 Based on these figures, the 4,031 housing units would generate an estimated 9,997 new residents (4,031 units x 2.48) in the City by 2020. Under Scenario A, 1,642 units would result in an estimated 4,072 new residents. According to ABAG, between 2000 and 2020, the City as a whole is projected to grow by 16,818 people, from 92,482 to 109,300 residents (see Table 4.5-1). Therefore, the proposed Corridor Plan under Scenario Z (the most growth-intensive of the scenarios) would result in a population increase of 11 percent between 2000 and 2020 relative to the City’s 2000 population. This increase would represent 59 percent of the ABAG-projected population growth between 2000 and 2020, and therefore would not exceed increases projected for the City as a whole. Because the proposed Plan would generate population growth that does not exceed estimates for the City’s future growth, the Corridor Plan would not be considered to cause substantial population growth in the area. Population growth by itself is not considered a significant environmental impact. However, development of housing, infrastructure, and facilities and services to accommodate this growth can have significant impacts on the environment through land conversions and other mechanisms. Direct impacts associated with development needed to accommodate increased population are evaluated in appropriate sections in this Draft Environmental Impact Report (DEIR) (e.g., Section 4.3, Traffic; Section 4.6, Air Quality; Section 4.7, Noise;

5

Estimates for persons per household vary slightly over the next 20 years. The estimate of 2.48 persons per household as indicated in ABAG Projections 2003, is the maximum number and is used as a conservative estimate.

San Mateo Corridor Plan and Bay Meadows Specific Plan Amendment EIR

4.5-11

EDAW, Inc.

SECTION 4.5: POPULATION, EMPLOYMENT, AND HOUSING

Section 4.8, Utilities, and Section 4.9, Public Services). Potential inconsistencies with local planning documents (i.e. the San Mateo General Plan) that may lead to significant environmental effects related to the above environmental topics, are also evaluated in each section. However, inconsistencies solely between planned and anticipated population growth as described here and projected by ABAG would not cause significant environmental effects. For these reasons, this impact is considered less than significant. Mitigation Measure Population-CP2: None required. _______________________ Displacement of Housing and People Impact Population-CP3: Full implementation of the proposed Corridor Plan (Scenarios A and Z) would increase the probability of redevelopment of the Bay Meadows Racetrack property, thus potentially resulting in the displacement of on-site worker housing. This would be a less than significant impact. Adoption and full implementation of the Corridor Plan (Scenarios A and Z) would result in the redevelopment of the 83-acre Bay Meadows Racetrack property, as the Plan would create an overlay zone encompassing the property that would allow for development at greater heights and densities than are currently permitted. Redevelopment of the site would eliminate the housing units provided on the site, displacing 30 full-time residents of the property who live in the dormitory-type housing units and work for the BMOC. In addition, accommodations for as many as 170 seasonal laborers on the racetrack site would be lost. Without the racetrack operations, there would be no demand for the housing that would be lost, as the housing is intended for and only available to racetrack workers. The loss of the housing paired with the cessation of racetrack operations would therefore not result in any effective loss in the supply of housing for the City as a whole. In addition, individuals living on the site would either take a new racetrack job beyond the Bay Area6 and find housing related to that employment, or would look for new employment and housing in the local market or beyond. Since the Corridor Plan would result in a net increase in housing units, the demand for housing associated with those lost at the Bay Meadows site would not be substantial. As such, the loss of the existing on-site accommodations would result in only minimal housing displacement and would therefore be a less than significant impact. Mitigation Measure Population-CP3: None required. _______________________

6

The only other horse-racing track in operation in the Bay Area is Golden Gate Fields in Albany, located approximately 40 miles from the Corridor Plan Area. An application for a horse-racing track in Dixon is currently undergoing review.

San Mateo Corridor Plan and Bay Meadows Specific Plan Amendment EIR

4.5-12

EDAW, Inc.

SECTION 4.5: POPULATION, EMPLOYMENT, AND HOUSING

Bay Meadows Impacts and Mitigation Measures Residential units, office space, and retail space discussed as part of the Bay Meadows project represent the maximum that could be built. Depending on market conditions, less of each of these uses could be built. Impacts were, however, determined based on the maximum potential development allowed under the proposed project. Construction-Related Population Growth Impact Population-BM1: Construction activities associated with the Bay Meadows project would result in temporary increases in employment in the City. This would be a less than significant impact. Project construction activities would occur on-and-off throughout the 10-year planning horizon of the Bay Meadows project. It is estimated that on a peak construction day, up to 350 construction workers could be employed in the construction of components of the proposed project (Kuratek, 2003). Fewer construction workers would be employed during non-peak periods. Specific periods of construction would be determined largely based on the project sponsor’s response to market conditions. The number of construction workers would fluctuate depending upon varying levels of construction activity. According to ABAG Projections 2003, 18,860 residents of San Mateo County are employed in the construction industry. This existing number of residents in the County who are employed in the construction industry would likely be sufficient to meet the demand for construction workers that would be generated by construction of the project. Some construction workers serving the project would be expected to come from the City of San Mateo itself, with a larger number coming from nearby communities in the County and greater Bay Area region. As a result, substantial population growth or increases in housing demand in the region as a result of these jobs is not anticipated. Furthermore, even if some construction workers from outside the region were employed on the project site, construction workers typically do not change residences when assigned to a new construction site, and it is not anticipated that there would be any substantial permanent relocation of these construction workers to the City of San Mateo. The proposed project would therefore not be expected to generate the need for substantial additional housing in the City or County as a result of project construction. Because of these conditions, impacts related to population growth and housing demand associated with construction are considered less than significant. Mitigation Measure Population-BM1: None required. _______________________ Population Inducement Impact Population-BM2: The Bay Meadows project would result in the development of new homes, which would result in direct increases in City population. This would be a less than significant impact.

San Mateo Corridor Plan and Bay Meadows Specific Plan Amendment EIR

4.5-13

EDAW, Inc.

SECTION 4.5: POPULATION, EMPLOYMENT, AND HOUSING

The proposed project includes the development of as many as 1,500 new housing units. Using the City average of 2.48 persons per household, the project would result in a maximum of approximately 3,720 people (1,500 units x 2.48) residing on the site by 2020. Taking into account the approximately 30 people who currently reside full-time on the site would be displaced by the project, the project would result in a net increase to the City’s population of approximately 3,690 by 2020. According to ABAG, between 2000 and 2020 the City as a whole is projected to grow by 16,818 people, from 92,482 to 109,300 residents (see Table 4.5-1). Therefore, the proposed project would result in a population increase of 4 percent relative to the City’s 2000 population. Because the Bay Meadows project site is one of the only parcels available for development and is within the City, it is reasonable to expect that much of the City’s growth would occur on this site. This increase would represent 19 percent of the ABAG-projected population growth between 2000 and 2020, and therefore would not exceed increases projected for the City as a whole. Because the proposed project would generate population growth that does not exceed estimates for the City’s future growth, the project would not be considered to cause substantial population growth in the area. Nonetheless, population growth by itself is not considered a significant environmental impact. However, development of housing, infrastructure, and facilities and services to accommodate this growth can have significant impacts on the environment through land conversions and other mechanisms. Direct impacts associated with development needed to accommodate increased population are evaluated in appropriate sections in this DEIR (e.g., Section 4.3, Traffic and Circulation; Section 4.6, Air Quality; Section 4.7, Noise; Section 4.8, Utilities, and Section 4.9, Public Services). Each section also identifies potential inconsistencies with local planning documents (i.e. the San Mateo General Plan) that may lead to significant environmental effects are also evaluated in each section. For these reasons, this impact is considered less than significant. Mitigation Measure Population-BM2: None required. _______________________ Displacement of Housing and People Impact Population-BM3: Implementation of the proposed Bay Meadows project would result in the displacement of on-site worker housing. This would be a less than significant impact. The proposed project would result in the redevelopment of the 83-acre Bay Meadows Racetrack property. Redevelopment of the site would eliminate the housing units provided on the site, displacing 30 full-time residents of the property who live in the dormitory-type housing units and work for BMOC. In addition, accommodations for as many as 170 seasonal laborers on the racetrack site would be lost. Without the racetrack operations, there would be no demand for the housing that would be lost, as the housing is intended for and only available to racetrack workers. The loss of the housing paired with the

San Mateo Corridor Plan and Bay Meadows Specific Plan Amendment EIR

4.5-14

EDAW, Inc.

SECTION 4.5: POPULATION, EMPLOYMENT, AND HOUSING

cessation of racetrack operations would therefore not result in any effective loss in the supply of housing for the City as a whole. In addition, individuals living on the site would either take a new racetrack job beyond the Bay Area and find housing related to that employment, or would look for new employment and housing in the local market or beyond. Since the Bay Meadows project would result in a net increase in housing units, the demand for housing associated with those lost on the project site would not be substantial. As such, the loss of the existing on-site accommodations would result in only minimal housing displacement and would therefore be a less than significant impact. Mitigation Measure Population-BM3: None required. _______________________

REFERENCES Association of Bay Area Governments' (ABAG), Projections 2003: Forecasts for the San Francisco Bay Area to the Year 2030, 2003. City of San Mateo, Community Development Department, Planning Division. Census 2000 Profile: A Demographic Analysis of the City of San Mateo. August 2003. City of San Mateo, City of San Mateo General Plan Vision 2010, 1995. Economic and Planning Systems (EPS), City of San Mateo General Plan Circulation Element Land Use Database Update: EPS Draft Documentation, June 23, 2003. EDAW, Bay Meadows Specific Plan and Route 101/Hillsdale Boulevard Interchange Modifications Project, Draft Environmental Impact Report, October 1996. EPS, Memorandum to the Citizen Advisory Committee, City of San Mateo: Economic Considerations for August 22nd 2001 CAC Meeting; EPS #10280, August 13, 2001. Human Services Agency of San Mateo County, http://www.co.sanmateo.ca.us/hsa.dir/housingstats.html, 2001. Kuratek, Ray, Consultant, Stockbridge Capital Partners LLC, email correspondence, October 16, 2003. Scalzo, Tom, Operations Manager, Bay Meadows Operating Company, multiple personal communications with Jeff Holzman, Wilson Meany Sullivan, 2003.

San Mateo Corridor Plan and Bay Meadows Specific Plan Amendment EIR

4.5-15

EDAW, Inc.

SECTION 4.5: POPULATION, EMPLOYMENT, AND HOUSING

Sullivan, Edward, Senior Technical Associate, Economic, and Planning Systems (EPS), written correspondence, June 2003. United States Census Bureau, Census 2000 STF 1 database, 2001. _____________________

San Mateo Corridor Plan and Bay Meadows Specific Plan Amendment EIR

4.5-16

EDAW, Inc.