Pareto Oil & Offshore Conference
Kristian Johansen CEO 14th September, 2016
Forward-Looking Statements All statements in this presentation other than statements of historical fact, are forward-looking statements, which are subject to a number of risks, uncertainties, and assumptions that are difficult to predict and are based upon assumptions as to future events that may not prove accurate. These factors include TGS’ reliance on a cyclical industry and principal customers, TGS’ ability to continue to expand markets for licensing of data, and TGS’ ability to acquire and process data products at costs commensurate with profitability. Actual results may differ materially from those expected or projected in the forward-looking statements. TGS undertakes no responsibility or obligation to update or alter forwardlooking statements for any reason.
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Agenda
Introduction Market Overview TGS Strategy Q2 2016 Financial Highlights Appendix (financial information)
©2016 TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Company ASA. All rights reserved.
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This is TGS The World’s largest geoscience data company
Traded on Oslo Stock Exchange, part of OBX Index (25 most liquid shares) Headquarters in Oslo and Houston (Operational) Regional offices in London, Perth, Calgary, Mexico City and Rio de Janeiro
The Leading multi-client data library covering frontier & mature basins
~3,000,000 km 2D data, ~500,000 sq. km 3D data and ~8,600,000 digital well logs Other data types include CSEM, multibeam, coring, gravity, magnetic, interpretive products Strategy to enter frontier regions, grow library and apply new technologies as basin matures
Asset light and multi-client business model
Flexibility through no vessel ownership – few long-term capital commitments Investment decisions driven by financial returns rather than asset utilization Client relationships – leading global sales & marketing team; exploration partner to E&Ps
Solid balance sheet backing TGS strategy
No debt and strong cash position allow counter-cyclical investment Average dividend yield of 4.2% over last seven years 10-year average return on capital employed of ~40%
©2016 TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Company ASA. All rights reserved.
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Agenda
Introduction Market Overview TGS Strategy Q2 2016 Financial Highlights Appendix (financial information)
©2016 TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Company ASA. All rights reserved.
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Challenging Market for Exploration
Year on Year decline in spending
Second consecutive 20%+ decline in E&P spending expected this year Impact on exploration budgets expected to be larger
23
Near-term volatility expected
Seismic demand likely to remain weak through 2016 Near-term, greater variability of demand between quarters and across regions Seismic spend will likely be prioritized in existing program areas that have premium economics
22 19
19
16
16 8
7
15
14
6
3
2
0 -10
-8
-10
-20 -25
Source: SEB Research
Most initial E&P Spending surveys indicate further decline in spending
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11
10
-30
2017 E&P spending under pressure
20
21
-26 -27
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E
27
30 Change year-on-year (%)
Change in Global E&P Spending
6
Long-Term Outlook Positive Global Production / Consumption (mn b/d)
Global Oversupply Moderating
Global oversupply is anticipated to continue to moderate through 2017 from a Q4 2015 high Market balance from Q3 2017 but supply response continuing to create volatility
2.3 2.0
2.0 1.7
1.3 0.5
0.7
1.4 0.8
0.8 0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
-0.2 -0.6
Need to Replace / Grow Reserves
Only 2.7bn barrels of new conventional oil supply was discovered in 2015, the lowest since 1947 (Wood Mackenzie) Combined with increasing demand, lack of new discoveries will drive increased exploration spending as oil companies look to replace/grow reserves – the key question is timing
Long-Term Demand Increasing
Global energy demand is expected to grow about 25% by 2040 driven by non-OECD countries Oil and natural gas expected to meet ~60% of global energy demand in 2040
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Source: EIA
Key Trends in the Seismic Industry Seismic* Return on Average Capital Employed
Seismic sector has underperformed financially
15%
ROCE below cost of capital Capital intensive and low entry barriers Critical product for end-user
10%
5%
0%
-5%
Gradual shift from proprietary to multi-client
2009
Seismic contractors taking more risk E&Ps tendering seismic acquisition as multi-client Higher prefunding but potentially lower returns
2010
2011
2012
*Global marine seismic industry excluding TGS
2013
2014
2015
Source: S&P Capital IQ; TGS
Seismic Spending (BUSD)
Fragmented market offering consolidation opportunities
Number of players constant since peak despite seismic spending falling by 2/3 Consolidation would provide the industry significant benefits over the course of cycles
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10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0
40% 38%
38%
38%
45% 59% 63%
2010
2011 Other
2012 DP/Imaging
2013
2014 Multi-Client
2015
2016-E
Contract
Source: Fearnley Securities; TGS
2017-E
Agenda
Introduction Market Overview TGS Strategy Q2 2016 Financial Highlights Appendix (financial information)
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Areas with Faster Payback will Likely Recover First
First movers will be areas with the best economics, or a combination of break-even oil prices and payback period Although initial focus will be on first mover areas, TGS will maintain a portfolio approach to investments to capture higherreturn opportunities in more frontier regions
Break-even oil price
Chart highlights areas that are likely to see incremental seismic activity first as market conditions improve
Payback
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Fast & Flexible Business Model Personnel and Other Operating Costs* -40
Reacting quickly to right size the company Operating costs down 30% year-on-year Operating costs down 51% since 2014 Variable pay drives alignment with staff
-30 -20
MUSD
-10 0 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 * Adjusted for restructuring costs and larger impairments of operating items
Cash Outflow correlates to Cash Inflow
Strong correlation between cash inflow and cash outflow
800
Investment down 54% to MUSD 230 Large reduction in vessel rates since peak Prefunding of investments stable at 40-45%
MUSD
1,000
600 400 200 0
Free Cash Flow
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Cash inflow
Cash outflow
Solid Balance Sheet Backing TGS strategy
Balance sheet remains healthy through down-cycle
Other Goodwill
66 68
Cash
162
Receivables
255
171 37
1167
Cash balance per Q2 2016 of 162 MUSD Undrawn Revolving Credit Facility of 75 MUSD
Multi-client Library
Current liabilities Non-current liabilities
Equity
823
Assets
Equity & Liability Equity and
Market Capitalization (in USD millions)
Strong share price relative to sector
1,786
TGS market capitalization of 1.8 BUSD Represents ~57% of industry (ex-SLB) Strong currency to explore inorganic investment opportunities
26 160
17
8
3
72
510
570 TGS
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CGG
PGS
SPU
ION
PLCS EMGS MCG
SBX
Strategic library acquisitions Dolphin library acquisition Agreement in principle to buy the majority of the Dolphin MC library together with PGS Enhancing TGS’ already strong position in areas such as the Barents Sea, the North Sea, NW Africa and Australia Limited initial cash outlay Definitive agreement expected in the near future
TGS is actively seeking consolidation opportunities through strategic library acquisitions Polarcus library 2015 Dolphin library 2016 Other opportunities monitored closely
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Solid Value Creation Over Time Share price development*
Long-term value creation track-record
1,100 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
Annual total return of 11% since IPO in 1997 Well above both the oil service segment and the general stock market
Counter-cyclical investment
Strong cash generation is enabling the company to both invest counter-cyclically as well as paying dividends to shareholders
Avg. annual return since TGS IPO in 1997 TGS S&P 500 Oil Services**
11.4% 7.7% 5.8%
* Values in NOK, adjusted for dividends ** Current OSX components that have traded since TGS IPO (equal weighted)
Dividend paid* (2010 – 2016) 1.6
Policy of paying dividends in line with long-term underlying cash flow
Aim to keep a stable quarterly dividend through the year (measured in USD) Actual quarterly dividend level paid will be subject to continuous evaluation of market outlook, cash flow expectations and balance sheet development
8.5 NOK 8.5 NOK
1.2 USD per share
8 NOK
1.4 5 NOK
1.0
6 NOK
0.8 0.6
USD 0.15 per Quarter
4 NOK
0.4
Q3
0.2
Q2 Q1
0.0 2010
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016* Year of Payment * Quarterly Dividends, defined in USD from 2016 Historical NOK dividends converted to USD using FX rate on ex-dividend date
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2011
Q3 Investment Focus
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2016 Key Objectives Free cash flow generation Consistency in delivering product quality Significant cost efficiencies Intense client focus
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Agenda
Introduction Market Overview TGS Strategy Q2 2016 Financial Highlights Appendix (financial information)
©2016 TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Company ASA. All rights reserved.
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Q2 2016 Financial Highlights Q2 2016 Revenue Distribution
Total Revenues
Other 12%
300 250
AMEAP 9%
200 150 100
3% Y/Y
298 190
172
50
140
169
132 64
NSA 52%
114
0
Europe 27%
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2014 2014 2015 2015 2015 2015 2016 2016
Free Cash Flow *
EBIT * 150
60%
150
100
40%
100
20%
50
50 0
111 71
37
38
46
0%
31
0
24 -19
-50
-20%
-50
-40%
63
49
15
-20 -76
-35
-100
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2014 2014 2015 2015 2015 2015 2016 2016 EBIT EBIT Margin
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2014 2014 2015 2015 2015 2015 2016 2016 * Defined as cash flow from operational activities minus operational cash investments in multi-client projects
* Earnings before interest and taxes and excluding larger impairments and restructuring costs
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84
18
Summary Signs of improvement in oil companies’ willingness to invest in seismic data during Q2 2016, however, the market is expected to remain challenging and volatile in the near term Long term fundamentals continues to be positive Global oversupply moderating Need to replace / grow reserves Long-term demand increasing
Asset-light, focused multi-client strategy continues to outperform Cost control, disciplined counter-cyclical investment and balance sheet strength positions TGS to enhance its leading position
Updated 2016 guidance: New operational multi-client investments of approximately 230 MUSD Additional multi-client investments expected from sales of existing surveys with risk sharing arrangements Multi-client investments are expected to be prefunded 40% to 45%
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Thank you
Kristian Johansen CEO
©2016 TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Company ASA. All rights reserved.
Agenda
Introduction Market Overview TGS Strategy Q2 2016 Financial Highlights Appendix (financial information)
©2016 TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Company ASA. All rights reserved.
21
Net Revenues Late sales revenues
Prefunding revenues
250
100
200
80
150
60 226
100 50
3% Y/Y
130 72
82
Q1 2015
Q2 2015
90
90
Q3 2014
Q4 2014
20
84 38
0 Q3 2015
Q4 2015
Q1 2016
94
40 51
74
62
37
23
26
0 Q2 2016
Q3 2014
Q4 2014
Q1 2015
Q2 2015
Q3 2015
Q4 2015
Q1 2016
Q2 2016
Total revenues
Proprietary revenues 10
300
8
250 200
6 4
-50% Y/Y
53
9
9
150
-33% Y/Y 6
2
100 5
5
5 3
3
Q1 2016
Q2 2016
298 190
-18% Y/Y 172
50
140
169
132
114 64
0
0 Q3 2014
Q4 2014
Q1 2015
Q2 2015
Q3 2015
Q4 2015
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Q3 2014
22
Q4 2014
Q1 2015
Q2 2015
Q3 2015
Q4 2015
Q1 2016
Q2 2016
Net Revenue Breakdown Q2 2016
Q2 2015
GPS 10%
GPS 10%
2D 15%
2D 48% 3D 42% 3D 75%
Q2 2016
Q2 2015 Other 14%
Other 12% AMEAP 9%
AMEAP 16% NSA 52%
NSA 51%
Europe 27%
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Europe 19% 23
Operating Expenses, EBIT, Free Cash Flow Operating expenses * 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
Amortization and impairment * 250 200 150
-30% Y/Y 32
37 25
24
28
22
230
100
62% - rate 143
18
50
17
105
81
99
62
69
0 Q3 2014
Q4 2014
Q1 2015
Q2 2015
Q3 2015
Q4 2015
Q1 2016
Q3 2014
Q2 2016
Q4 2014
Q1 2015
111 38
37
46
31
24 -19
Q3 2014
Q4 2014
Q1 2015
Q2 2015
EBIT
Q3 2015
Q3 2015
Q4 2015
Q1 2016
Q2 2016
Free cash flow *
EBIT *
71
Q2 2015
* Q1 and Q2 2016 reflects the new amortization policy effective from 1 January 2016
* Include personnel costs and other operating expenses. Adjusted for restructuring costs and larger impairments of operating items
120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40
74
Q4 2015
Q1 2016
60%
150
40%
100
20%
50
0%
0
-20%
-50
-40%
-100
63
49
15
-20
-35
-76
Q3 2014
Q2 2016
110
84
Q4 2014
Q1 2015
Q2 2015
Q3 2015
Q4 2015
Q1 2016
EBIT Margin * Defined as cash flow from operational activities minus operational cash investments in multi-client projects
* Earnings before interest and taxes and excluding larger impairments and restructuring costs
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Q2 2016
Multi-Client Library 200 150 100
163 50
126
135
116
93
88 53
62
0
Q3 2014
Q4 2014
Q1 2015
Q2 2015
Q3 2015
Operational investments
700
Q4 2015
Q1 2016
Multi-client library - NBV 1,000
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
Prefunding ratio
Operational investments
Operational investments and prefunding ratio
Q2 2016
850
976
800
876
837
818
Q3 2014
Q4 2014
750
919 839
830
823
Q1 2015
Q2 2015
Q3 2015
Q4 2015
Q1 2016
Q2 2016
Prefunding ratio
Net revenues vs net book value – year of completion 60%
609
52%
600
50%
500
427
40%
70%
30%
270
200
22%
34%
14%
100
20%
19% 17%21%
17%
122 10%
52%
1%
44%
451
381
400 300
900
700
Investments – year of completion
20 %
950
0% 1% 0%
4%
9%
7% 8% 1%
0%
0 2012
2013
2014
Original investments
2015
2016 YTD
Fully amortized
WIP
2013
2014
Net revenues
Net Book Value
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2012
25
2015
2016 YTD
Net book value
WIP
Q2 2016 Income Statement USD million, except EPS
Q2 2016
Net revenues
Q2 2015 Change in %
114
140
-18%
0.8
0.1
1435%
69
74
-6%
Gross margin
44
66
-33%
Personnel costs
11
17
-37%
9
9
-3%
0.3
0.9
-61%
3
3
-7%
22
36
-39%
-0.3
2
-116%
21
37
-43%
5
13
-65%
17
24
-31%
EPS, Undiluted
0.17
0.24
-29%
EPS, Fully Diluted
0.17
0.24
-29%
Cost of goods sold – proprietary and other Amortization of multi-client library
62%
Other operating expenses Cost of stock options Depreciation Operating profit
19%
Net financial items Profit before taxes
19%
Taxes Net Income
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15%
26
Q2 2016 Cash Flow Statement Q2 2016
USD million
Q2 2015 Change in %
Received payments from customers
28
141
-80%
Payments for operational expenses
(19)
(25)
25%
Paid taxes
-
(29)
100%
Operational cash flow
9
86
-89%
(1)
(3)
57%
(44)
(162)
73%
0.3
2
-82%
Interest paid
(0.3)
(0.003)
-10467%
Dividend payments
(14)
(99)
86%
2
0.03
5271%
-48
-175
73%
Investments in tangible and intangible assets Investments in multi-client library Interest received
Proceeds from share issuances Change in cash balance
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Balance Sheet USD million
Q2 2016
Q1 2016 Change in %
Q4 2015
Assets Cash and cash equivalents
162
210
-23%
163
Other current assets
255
189
35%
308
Total current assets
417
399
5%
471
Intangible assets and deferred tax asset
92
92
0%
90
Other non-current assets
16
16
3%
25
823
830
-1%
839
26
28
-7%
30
1,375
1,364
1%
1,455
171
168
2%
218
Non-current liabilities
4
5
-9%
6
Deferred tax liability
33
29
14%
33
208
201
3%
257
Equity
1,167
1,163
0%
1,198
Total Liabilities and Equity
1,375
1,364
1%
1,455
Multi-client library Fixed assets Total Assets Liabilities Current liabilities
Total Liabilities
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