New Strategies for Reserve and Reliablity in decentralized Energy Supply Systems PhD – Proposal
Anja Ohsenbrügge Carl – von – Ossietzky University Oldenburg OFFIS · R&D energy division - energymanagement 2012-12-07
Agenda motivation terms and definitions ambition approach summary timetable
CC-by-nd hiking artist Motivation
Terms/Definition
Ambition
Approach
Summary
Timetable
22
Motivation
Increase of volatility within the grid Increase of power from renewable resources
Decrease of the back-up-facility Decrease of conventional generation (nuclear phaseout)
Motivation
Terms/Definition
Ambition
Approach
Summary
Timetable
33
Motivation Number of stabilisation-interventions in the control area of E.ON/Tennet
Year
Days
Event
2003
2
2
2010
161
290
2011
308
1.024
Technical challenge Security of electrical energy supplies Motivation
Terms/Definition
Ambition
Approach
Summary
Timetable
44
Terms and Definitions
Security of electrical energy supplies „physical availability of supplies to satisfy demand at a given price“ [IEA, 2001, S. 76, Toward a sustainable energy future]
Ziel Motivation
Terms/Definition
Ambition
Approach
Summary
Timetable
55
Terms and Definitions
reliability of supply
long term reserve
short term reserve
security of supply
adequency of supply
Ziel Motivation
Terms/Definition
[Bi 94: Reliability assessment of electric power systems] Ambition
Approach
Summary
Timetable
66
Terms and Definitions
Frequency stability in the entsoe network
30 sec
15 min
Ziel Motivation
Terms/Definition
60 min
[entsoe: Operation Handbook – P1 Load Frequency] Ambition
Approach
Summary
Timetable
77
Terms and Definition Dezentralized Supply System with Smart Grids Integrated Market for Active Power and Ancillary Services
V
Self-organized agent-based coalition
Motivation
Terms/Definition
Ambition
Approach
Summary
Timetable
88
Ambition
Core research question: What is the best Strategy for Reserve and Reliability fitting with the self organized agentbased coalition approach ?
Aims: Design of a new strategy for reserve and reliability
Motivation
Analysis : SWOT-Analysis of the corrent strategy Reform: „Best practice“ from other economic domains
Terms/Definition
Ambition
Approach
Summary
Timetable
99
Approach Process Model Design Science from Hevner [He04]
PHASE 1 Literature Research
PHASE 2
PHASE 3
PHASE 4
PHASE 5
Problem Identification
Hypotheses, Deduction
Conceptual Design
Construction
PHASE 6 Validation
[in Anl. an Radmacher 2007] Motivation
Terms/Definition
Ambition
Approach
Summary
Timetable
10 10
Phase 2: Problem identification Driving factors in the move towards Smart Grids [ETP06]
Reliablility and quality
Motivation
Terms/Definition
Ambition
Approach
Summary
Timetable
11 11
Phase 3: Hypothesis Will flexibility cover the new requirements; or should the system rather be versatile ?
Motivation
Terms/Definition
Ambition
Approach
Summary
Timetable
12 12
Phase 3: Hypothesis „Versatility is a property of a system, to adapt to different requirements in a self-organized kind of way.“
„Flexibility is a property of a system, to offer a change capacity to fulfill the need of changes“ [Gronau 2005 (transl. from German)]
Motivation
Terms/Definition
Ambition
Approach
Summary
Timetable
13 13
Phase 4: Conceptual Design Versatility Transfer ininthe thefield fieldofofelectrial plant design supply
Load/Demand
[ Wiendahl,Reichardt 2009]
What is the correct width for the corridor of flexibility ? reactive scheduling Motivation
Terms/Definition
Ambition
What is the right dimension for the versatility ? change capacity Approach
Summary
Timetable
14 14
Summary
Decrease of conventional generation and increase of power from renewable sources brings up new technical challanges New ICT-components in the distribution grid allow a decentralized control of generation and load Dynamic aggregation concepts for energy balancing and grid stability with agent-based coalitions Matching of the corrent reserve and reliability strategy with the new contraints
Motivation
Terms/Definition
Ambition
Approach
Summary
Timetable
15 15
Timetable
OS 2 end 2013
Internal colloquim end 2014
PhD Thesis Defense May2015
OS 1 end 2012 Proposal middle 2012
2012 Motivation
Terms/Definition
Ambition
Approach
Summary
Timetable
16 16
Thank you. 2012 Motivation
Terms/Definition
Ambition
Approach
Summary
Timetable
17 17
Literature
[Bi94] Billington, R.: Reliability of electric power systems using Monte Carlo mehtods, 1994 [Brückl 06]: Brückl, O.: Wahrscheinlichkeitstheoretische Bestimmung des Regel- und Reserveleistungsbedarfs in der Elektrizitätswirtschaft [Edwin 79] Edwin, K.: Untersuchung der Kraftwerksreserve im Verbundsystem 1979 [Graf 06]: Graf,F-R., et al.: Gutachten zur Bestimmung des regelzoneninternen Regelleistungsbedarfs für Sekundärregelung und Minutenreserve, 2006 [Gr05] Gronau, N.: Ermittlung der Zukunftsfähigkeit unternehmensweiter Anwendungssysteme. [Haubrich 08]: Haubrich, H.-J., et al.: Gutachten zur Höhe des Regelleistungsbedarfs, 2008 [He04] Hevner, A.R., et. al.: Design Science Information Systems Research, 2004 [Kays 10]: Kays, J., et.al.: Multidimensionales Verfahren zur Bestimmung des Regelleistungsbedarfs unter Berücksichtigung von Unsicherheiten, 2010 [Na 00] Narasimhan, S., et.al.: A fuzzy-based approach for gereration system reliability evaluation, 2000 [Or04] Orths, A.:Spieltheorie in Verteilnetzen, 2009 [Radmacher 07]Radmacher, M.: Adaptive Customer Profiles in a Mobile Environment. In: Proceedings of IFIP I3E, Wuhan, China, 2007 [Ta 04]: Tanrioven, M.: A new aproach to real-time analysis ..using fuzzy Markov model, 2004
2012 Motivation
Terms/Definition
Ambition
Approach
Summary
Timetable
18 18
Wandlungsfähigkeit
Wandlungsfähigkeit (versatility) Turbulenzfähigkeit
Flexibilität (flexibility)
Entwicklungsfähigkeit (developability)
Reaktionsfähigkeit (reactivity)
Wissen (knowledge)
[Quelle: Spath 2001] Motivation
Begriffe
Ziel
Vorgehen
Zeitplan
19 19
Regel- und Reserveleistung Methods for reserve determination
deterministic
probabilistic
analytic
sequential
simulative
non-sequential
[Quelle: Brückl 2006] Motivation
Begriffe
Ziel
Vorgehen
Zeitplan
20 20
Analytische Verfahren Analytisches Verfahren zur Reservebemessung
[Quelle: Gutachten zur Höhe des Regelleistungsbedarfs,S. 27, consentecHaubrich 2008: ] Motivation
Begriffe
Ziel
Vorgehen
Zeitplan
21 21
