Mobile Devices

The Great Semiconductor Migration

December 2011 Study Number: MP105

Copyright Semico Research Corp., 2011. All rights reserved. Reproduction in whole or part is prohibited without permission of Semico. The contents of this report represent the interpretation and analysis of statistics and information that is generally available to the public or released by responsible agencies or individuals, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness.

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Table of Contents List of Tables ....................................................................................... iii List of Figures ...................................................................................... v Executive Overview ..............................................................................8 Overview ..............................................................................................9 Evolution of the Consumer Market .....................................................11

Content Distribution...................................................................................................... 11 Broadband Penetration Rates ........................................................................................ 13 Convergence ................................................................................................................. 14 Regional Trends ............................................................................................................ 14 Consumer Trends ...............................................................................17

Operating Systems ........................................................................................................ 17 End Market Descriptions .............................................................................................. 18 Semiconductor Migration ...................................................................19 Screen Analysis ..................................................................................23

Alternative Technologies .............................................................................................. 23 Optoelectronics Analysis ....................................................................26 Analog Analysis ..................................................................................31 Memory Analysis ................................................................................36

DRAM........................................................................................................................... 38 SRAM ........................................................................................................................... 47 Flash .............................................................................................................................. 48 HDD .............................................................................................................................. 51 Cloud Computing .......................................................................................................... 53 PCM .............................................................................................................................. 53 Processor Analysis .............................................................................54

Computing MPU ........................................................................................................... 58 DSP ............................................................................................................................... 59 Embedded MPU ............................................................................................................ 60 MCU ............................................................................................................................. 62 MEMS & Sensors .................................................................................65 MOS Logic ..........................................................................................69 Appendix of Tables & Charts ..............................................................73 Methodology ......................................................................................76

Product Definitions ....................................................................................................... 77 2011©Semico Research Corp. All Rights Reserved. Mobile Devices: The Great Semiconductor Migration ii

List of Tables Table 1: MAP Model Categories ................................................................9 Table 2: Box Revenue Forecasts ............................................................19 Table 3: Box Market Shares of Total Mobile Device Market ....................20 Table 4: Mobile Device Semiconductor Revenue Forecast......................21 Table 5: Semiconductor Revenue Market Shares ...................................22 Table 6: Optoelectronic Revenue Forecast.............................................27 Table 7: Optoelectronic Unit Forecast....................................................27 Table 8: Optoelectronic ASPs ................................................................28 Table 9: Image Sensor Unit Forecast by Box .........................................30 Table 10: Analog TAM Revenue Breakout ..............................................33 Table 11: Average Selling Prices for Analog ..........................................35 Table 12: SDRAM Revenue TAM in USD Millions.....................................40 Table 13: SDRAM ASPs in USD ...............................................................40 Table 14: DDR2 DRAM TAM in USD Millions ...........................................42 Table 15: DDR2 DRAM ASPs ..................................................................42 Table 16: DDR3 DRAM TAM in USD Millions ...........................................44 Table 17: DDR3 DRAM ASPs ..................................................................44 Table 18: Low Power DRAM TAM in USD Millions ...................................46 Table 19: Low Power DRAM ASPs in USD...............................................46 Table 20: SRAM Forecast by End Use Market .........................................47 Table 21: SRAM ASPs in USD .................................................................48 Table 22: NAND TAM Revenues in USD Millions .....................................49 Table 23: NAND ASPs in USD .................................................................50 Table 24: NOR TAM Revenue in USD Millions .........................................51 Table 25: NOR ASPs in USD ...................................................................51 Table 26: MOS Micrologic Forecast ........................................................54 Table 27: MOS Micrologic Forecast by Segment .....................................57 Table 28: MOS Micrologic ASPs..............................................................58 2011©Semico Research Corp. All Rights Reserved. Mobile Devices: The Great Semiconductor Migration iii

Table 29: MOS Embedded MPU Revenue Forecast by Technology ..........60 Table 30: Embedded MPU Unit Forecast by Technology .........................61 Table 31: MCU Revenue Forecast by Technology ...................................63 Table 32: MCU Unit Forecast by Technology ..........................................63 Table 33: Sensor Revenue Forecast .......................................................66 Table 34: Sensor Revenue Percent Change ...........................................66 Table 35: Sensor Unit Forecast ..............................................................67 Table 36: Sensor Unit Percent Change ..................................................68 Table 37: Sensor ASPs ...........................................................................68 Table 38: MOS Logic Revenue Forecast .................................................69 Table 39: Standard Cell Forecast ...........................................................70 Table 40: MPRs Computing Forecast .....................................................72 Table 41: Wireless Communications Forecast........................................72 Table 42: End-Use Box Forecast .............................................................73

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List of Figures Figure 1: Hulu Historical Subscriptions .................................................12 Figure 2: Wired Broadband Subscriptions per 100 Inhabitants by Country ...............................................................................................................13 Figure 3: Wireless Broadband Subscriptions per 100 Inhabitants by Country ...............................................................................................................13 Figure 4: High-Technology Exports as a Percentage of Manufactured Exports ...................................................................................................15 Figure 5: Imports of Goods and Services (% of GDP) ............................15 Figure 6: Internet Users per 100 People ...............................................16 Figure 7: Mobile Cellular Subscriptions per 100 People .........................16 Figure 8: Consumer Purchasing Drivers ................................................17 Figure 9: Box Revenue Forecast ............................................................19 Figure 10: Box Market Shares ...............................................................20 Figure 11: Mobile Device Semiconductor Forecast .................................21 Figure 12: Mobile Device Semiconductor Revenue Forecast ..................22 Figure 13: A Visual Representation of Differing Resolutions .................23 Figure 14: E-ink Diagram.......................................................................24 Figure 15: Mirasol Technology by Qualcomm ........................................25 Figure 16: Analog TAM Revenue Comparison ........................................26 Figure 17: ≤1 Megapixel Market Shares ................................................28 Figure 18: ≤2 Megapixel Market Shares ................................................28 Figure 19: ≤4 Megapixel Market Shares ................................................29 Figure 20: ≤8 Megapixel Market Shares ................................................29 Figure 21: ≤16 Megapixel Market Shares ..............................................30 Figure 22: Analog TAM Revenue Comparison ........................................31 Figure 23: Total Analog Revenue TAM, M$ ............................................32 Figure 24: Analog TAM Revenue Breakout Sans ASSPs, M$ ...................33 Figure 25: ASSP Revenue TAM, M$ ........................................................34 Figure 26: Small, Medium, and Large Scale Complexity Percentages within the ASSP Market..................................................................................... 34 2011©Semico Research Corp. All Rights Reserved. Mobile Devices: The Great Semiconductor Migration v

Figure 27: Total Mobile Devices Memory Revenue TAM Forecast in USD Millions...................................................................................................36 Figure 28: Total Mobile Devices Memory Percentages ...........................36 Figure 29: Total Mobile Devices Memory Unit TAM Forecast ..................37 Figure 30: DRAM Forecast for Mobile Devices in USD Millions ...............38 Figure 31: DRAM Revenue Forecast by Density .....................................39 Figure 32: DRAM Unit TAM for Mobile Devices in Millions ......................39 Figure 33: SDRAM Revenue Forecast (USD Million) ...............................40 Figure 34: SDRAM Unit Forecast in Millions ...........................................41 Figure 35: DDR2 DRAM Revenue (USD Million)......................................41 Figure 36: DDR2 DRAM Unit Forecast ....................................................42 Figure 37: DDR3 DRAM TAM Revenue (USD Millions) ............................43 Figure 38: DDR3 End-Use Market Percentages ......................................43 Figure 39: DDR3 DRAM TAM Units .........................................................44 Figure 40: Low Power DRAM Revenue (USD Millions) ...........................45 Figure 41: Low Power End-Use Market Percentages ..............................45 Figure 42: Low Power DRAM Unit TAM in Millions .................................46 Figure 43: Mobile Devices NAND Revenue TAM USD Millions .................48 Figure 44: NAND Forecast by Technology ..............................................49 Figure 45: Mobile Devices NOR Revenue TAM in USD Millions ...............50 Figure 46: Mobile Device Breakout for 2011 ..........................................52 Figure 47: Comparison of High-Density Memory Technologies ..............53 Figure 48: Total MOS Micrologic Forecast in Millions USD and Units ......54 Figure 49: MOS Micrologic Revenue Market Shares ...............................55 Figure 50: MOS Micrologic Unit Market Shares ......................................55 Figure 51: MOS Micrologic Revenue Breakout .......................................56 Figure 52: MOS Micrologic Unit Breakout ..............................................56 Figure 53: DSP Market Shares by End-Use Product ...............................59 Figure 54: Embedded MPU Revenues by Technology .............................60 Figure 55: Embedded MPU Units by Technology ....................................61 Figure 56: Embedded MPU Market Shares by End-Use Product .............62 2011©Semico Research Corp. All Rights Reserved. Mobile Devices: The Great Semiconductor Migration vi

Figure 57: MCU Revenues by Technology ..............................................62 Figure 58: MCU Unit Forecast by Technology .........................................63 Figure 59: MCU Market Shares by End-Use Product ...............................64 Figure 60: Sensor Revenue Forecast .....................................................65 Figure 61: Sensor Unit Forecast ............................................................67 Figure 62: MOS Logic Revenue Forecast ................................................69 Figure 63: Standard Cell Revenue Forecast ...........................................70 Figure 64: MOS Display Driver Revenue Forecast ..................................71 Figure 65: Computing MPR Revenue Forecast .......................................71 Figure 66: Wireless Communications MPR Revenue Forecast ................72 Figure 67: Semico Forecasting Methodology .........................................76 Figure 68: Semico MAP Model Methodology ..........................................77

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