Making spirits bright Deloitte’s 2014 holiday shopping survey October 2014
2014 holiday survey themes
Economic outlook and spending • Continued rise in confidence in 2014; fewer believe we are still in a recession. • Consumers predicting they will increase their total holiday spending by 13%; gifts alone will rise by 9%. • For the first time in 8 years, a measurable increase in the actual number of gifts (from 12.9 to 13.4).
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Holiday shopping: how, what, where and when
Mobile device and social media influence
In-store: advantages, barriers and data security
• The top two gifts remain clothing and gift cards. • Most popular locations will be the Internet and discount/value dept. stores – equally noted. • Over 4 in 10 will do the majority of shopping December or later (and 16% after Christmas). • Two-thirds will specifically look for free shipping.
• 72% of smartphone owners and 69% of tablet owners will use their devices to help them shop this holiday season. • Smartphones will be used more for finding store locations and price checks; tablets more to shop/browse. • Almost half (45%) will use social media to assist in shopping.
• Barriers to store trips are long lines, traffic and less merchandise on hand. • In fact, 28% will visit malls less this year, mainly due to crowds and high prices. • Data security is a concern for 76%, yet 56% will continue to shop a retailer that has experienced a data breach. • 68% will shop ‘local’, to support the local economy and find unique gifts.
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Economic outlook and spending
Consumers’ plans to spend “more” trends higher Spend more “How will your total holiday spending compare with last year's holiday season?” 90%
82%
Recession
80%
71% 66%
70%
64%
67%
68%
11%
10%
13%
13%
15%
8%
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
71% 59%
62%
59%
60%
71%
69%
29%
31%
2013
2014
63% 59%
51%
50% 49%
40% 41% 30%
34%
36%
33% 29%
20% 10%
32%
41%
42% 38%
37%
29% Recession
18%
0% 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Spend more/same
3
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Spend less
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Optimism in the economy is on the rise “Do you believe the U.S. economy currently is ...” 54%
53%
49%
37% 32% 29%
11% 8% 3%
11%
4%
Healthy
Slowly recovering from a recession 2012
4
10%
Heading back into recession 2013
Still in recession; there has been no recovery
2014
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Confidence is resulting in higher expected spending “How much do you expect you will spend during the upcoming year-end holiday season on each of the following items?”
2013
2014
% change
Gifts
$421
$458
+9%
Socializing away from home
$270
$310
+15%
Entertaining at home
$159
$194
+22%
Non-gift clothing for family or yourself
$136
$144
+6%
Home/holiday furnishings
$81
$93
+15%
Any other holiday-related spending not listed above
$87
$100
+15%
$1,154
$1,299
+13%
Total
42% of respondents have a specific budget in mind they plan on spending this holiday season 5
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Omni-channel shoppers (mobile, store, Internet) expect to spend 66% more than store-only shoppers on gifts Consumers’ expectations for holiday spending on:
Gifts
Total*
Omni-channel (shop mobile, store, Internet combined)
Shop stores only
$592
+6% vs. 2013
$357
$1,768 +8% vs. 2013
$836
Smartphone owners will spend 27% more on gifts this holiday season than non-smartphone owners and those who will not use a smartphone to assist in holiday shopping (no change vs. 2013)
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*Total includes the following categories: “gifts,” “socializing away from home,” “entertaining at home,” “non-gift clothing for family or yourself,” “home/holiday furnishings,” and “any other holiday-related spending not listed.”
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Total gifts given expected to slightly increase “In total, what is the number of gifts, including gift certificates/cards that you expect to buy this holiday season?” 25 22.0
23.1 21.5
20
18.2 16.8 14.7
15
12.8
12.9
13.4
2012
2013
2014
10
5
0 2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
$159 is average spend on gift cards this holiday season (-$5 vs. 2013) 43% will purchase gift cards (no change vs. 2013, but down from a high of 69% in 2007) 7
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Holiday shopping: how, what, where and when
Clothing and gift cards remain the top gifts consumers expect to purchase “Which of the following types of gifts do you plan to buy this holiday season?” Top 10 gifts consumers plan on buying Clothing
Electronics (NET)* 33%
45%
Gift cards or gift certificates
43%
Books
31%
Games, Toys, Dolls, etc.
29%
Food/Liquor
28%
Money (Cash or check)
27%
CDs or DVDs or Blu Rays for movies or music
21%
Jewelry
20%
Cosmetics/fragrances/health & beauty aids Games - Computer/video only
9
*Electronics category is comprised of home/personal/car electronics, computers and tablets, game consoles and video games
19% 15%
Gift cards (37%) and cash (35%) rank No. 1 and 2 as the gifts respondents would like to receive
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Top venues respondents expect to shop “At which of the following retail sources will you likely shop for holiday gifts?”
Internet (including auction sites)
45%
Discount/Value department stores
44%
Traditional department stores
22%
Off-price stores
22%
Warehouse membership clubs
22%
Outlet stores/centers
21%
Electronics/Office supply/Computer stores
21%
Home improvement stores
10
Responses under 14% not shown
44% in 2013
30%
Toy stores
Restaurants/fast food establishments
47% in 2013
17% 16%
Sporting goods stores
15%
Specialty clothing stores
15%
Drug stores
15%
Low-price dollar stores
14%
Supermarkets
14%
4.6 — average number of venues consumers expect to shop this year (4.5 in 2013)* 2.1— average number of loyalty programs consumers use *Among those who expect to shop at venues
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Over half (52%) of holiday spending is planned for in-store and 40% is expected to be online "What percentage of your total holiday budget do you expect to spend ...?” (Among total) 52%
40% will be spent online 33%
8%
7%
In-store
11
Online via desktop / laptop Online via mobile / tablet device
Other
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Consumers seeking convenience and lower costs “In general, what retail offerings will you take advantage of when spending this holiday season?”
Free shipping
68%
Free returns
52%
Price matching
45%
Extended holiday hours (open early/close late)
35%
Order online/pick up in-store
Free layaway
34%
16%
74% of respondents will be influenced by coupons/promotional offers (unchanged vs. 2013) 12
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43% will do the majority of their holiday shopping in December or later, an increase versus 2013 “Which one of these days or months do you expect to do the majority of your holiday shopping this year?" 38%
18%
15% 9% 5%
5%
Have already started
October
5%
4% Early November
Black Friday
Cyber Monday Late November
December
January
43% 25%
16% -- Percent of households planning to shop after Christmas Day, December 25th (13% in 2013)
Early -5 vs. 2013
13
31%
Late November
December or Later +6 vs. 2013 Copyright © 2014 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
Showrooming vs. webrooming this holiday season “How likely will you be this holiday season to … ”
14
Webrooming
Showrooming
… first look at items online, then go to a store to see the item, then make purchase at store
… first go to a store to look for an item, then search online for the best price, and then purchase online
68%
49%
Percentages combine those respondents who selected answer choices “Very likely” and “Somewhat likely”
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Consumer technologies, digital influence and social media
Smartphone and tablet ownership is rising
+ 17 vs. 2012 + 6 vs. 2013
+ 12 vs. 2013
67%
50%
61% 38%
50%
Own smartphone 2012
2013
2014
Own tablet 2013
2014
41% are concerned about their privacy as a result of retailers accessing information about them through their smartphone 16
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Smartphone owners are more likely to use their device to get store locations and compare prices “In which of the following ways, if any, do you plan to use your smartphone to assist you in your holiday shopping?” (Among the 72% who will use a smartphone for holiday shopping)
58%
Get store locations
52%
Check/compare prices
48%
Shop/browse online
47%
Get product information
44%
Read reviews Check product availability in a store or website
41%
Get/use discounts, coupons, sales information
41% 36%
Access social networks Make a purchase online Get text messages or exclusive deals from retailers Scan product barcodes to find more product information
17
Responses under 31% not shown
+3 vs. 2013
35% 32%
+5 vs. 2013 +7 vs. 2013 +4 vs. 2013
+8 vs. 2013
31%
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Tablet owners are more likely to use their tablets for shopping/browsing and making a purchase “In which of the following ways, if any, do you plan to use your tablet to assist you in your holiday shopping?” (Among the 69% who will use a tablet for holiday shopping)
Shop/browse online
65%
Make a purchase online
57%
Get product information
57%
Read reviews
56%
Check/compare prices
54%
Check product availability in a store or website Get store locations Access social networks Get/use discounts, coupons, sales information
18
Responses under 35% not shown
+5 vs. 2013
46% 39% 36% 35%
+6 vs. 2013 +5 vs. 2013
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Digital devices are significantly influencing the shopping journey this holiday season Digital devices* will influence 50 percent, or $345 billion, of in-store retail sales this holiday season
Tablet
19
Smartphone
Desktop
*Digital devices are defined in the survey as meaning laptops, desktops, smartphones and tablets
Laptop
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45% of respondents are using social media to assist in holiday shopping Of those planning to use social media for holiday shopping: Why?
Activity
Percentage
Get gift ideas
47%
Find discounts, coupons, sale information
45%
Read reviews, "likes," or recommendations for products/stores
41%
Browse products
40%
Check with family/friends on gifts they want
32%
Post comments or share links about stores, sales, products
21%
72% of all respondents use social media sites (blogs, discussion groups, or social networks) 20
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In-store shopping: advantages, barriers and data security
Long lines are the biggest deterrent to shopping in stores this holiday season “What, if anything, might prevent you from shopping in-store this holiday season?” Top 10 reasons Long lines
40%
Too much traffic
26%
Doesn't carry merchandise I want
25%
Slow checkout
24%
Too far away
19%
Lack of parking
16%
Items/sizes often out of stock
16%
Gas prices
13%
Store hours inconvenient Limited number of store associates Store associates knowledge/ability to assist
22
10% 6% 5%
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More than half (55%) of respondents are shopping at malls* this holiday season Nearly 3 in 10 (28%) respondents expect to shop at malls less this year compared to 2013 Reasons for shopping less at malls: They are too crowded
49%
I can find better prices elsewhere
42%
Don't have to deal with traffic
36%
It's faster to purchase elsewhere
26%
Lack of parking / Hard to park Malls usually don't have what I am looking for
17%
Too far away
17%
They feel old-fashioned or outdated
23
23%
6%
*Malls are defined as classic indoor or outdoor shopping establishments that have large anchor stores at the end
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Personal data protection is a concern among respondents shopping online and in-store Percent who agree with the following … (Among total) I am concerned about the protection of my personal data when shopping online
55%
I am more concerned about the protection of my personal data when shopping online than one year ago
51%
I am concerned about the protection of my personal data when shopping in the physical store
42%
I am concerned about my privacy as a result of retailers accessing information about me through my smartphone
41%
I will use a different form of payment when shopping as a result of a data breach
27%
76% of all respondents are concerned about retailers that have experienced a data breach 24
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The majority of respondents are not dissuaded from shopping at retailers that have experienced a breach
25
56%
36%
“I am concerned about retailers that have experienced a data breach but will still continue to shop at them this holiday season”
“I am more likely to shop at a retailer who provides me education surrounding the security of my personal data”
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The sales associate can still make a difference “During the holiday season, I am more likely to complete an in-store purchase from a retailer that offers ...”
Knowledgeable store associates
48%
Self-service/mobile checkout
24%
Barcode scanners to confirm product prices and features Personalized coupons/offers through my smartphone
23%
21%
Personalized coupons/offers through social networking sites
17%
WiFi access for comparison shopping
17%
33% feel store associates can provide customers a better shopping experience when equipped with the latest mobile technologies 26
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Respondents prefer flexible return policies
“When holiday shopping, which of these return policies do you find most desirable?” Most desirable return policies
Can return item to any store, regardless of purchase location
25%
Has refund options other than store credit
27
23%
No receipt required
18%
Allows returns in January for items purchased in October through December
18%
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More plan to use self-help technology, the most popular being “price checkers” and “self-checkout” Will use self-help technologies: 63%
+ 5 vs. 2013
“Which of the following self-help technologies, if any, do you plan on using during your in-store holiday shopping this year?” Price checker
59%
Self-checkout payment lanes
56%
Retailer's mobile app Mobile payment (e.g., paying via a phone, tablet or laptop) Information kiosks (e.g., access to the retailer's website)
28
20% 16% 16%
Handheld product scanner
11%
Video screens demonstrating products
11%
Electronic shelf labeling
11%
Digital signage
11%
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If a product is not available in-store, 51% will still try to buy from that same store somehow “If a product wasn’t available in the store, which would you most likely do first?”
Go to another location of the same store (same chain/name) or ask a store associate if another location has the item
51%
29%
Store Loyalty Go online to the same store's website
22% 47% in 2013
Go to another store (different chain/name)
42% No Store Loyalty 45% in 2013
20%
Go online to another website (search engines, price comparison sites) Go online to another store's website
Would not continue shopping for the product
16%
6%
4%
Gender Would not shop at a store in-person
4%
Store Loyalty 29
Male
Female
45
56
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If a product is not available on a store’s website, the majority will look at a different store or website “If the product wasn’t available on a store’s website, which would you most likely do first?”
Go online to another store's website
34%
Go online to another website (search engines, price comparison sites)
29%
Go elsewhere
Go to same store in-person (same chain/name)
14%
Go to another store in-person (different chain/name)
Would not shop online
Would not continue shopping for the product
30
74%
11%
6%
5%
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More than two-thirds (68%) of respondents will shop local* this holiday season “For what reasons will you be shopping at local retail stores (including small businesses and boutiques) this holiday season instead of somewhere else?” (Among the 68% shopping local) To support the local economy
62%
To find one-of-a-kind gifts
53%
It is more convenient
43%
Excellent customer service
38%
It is critical to the overall health of the U.S. economy
30%
Greater loyalty to the local retail store
30%
Special deals or offers from these local retailers
25%
Free services (i.e., gift wrapping)
18%
Personal relationship with store owner
18%
On average, respondents expect to spend 35% of their holiday budget on local stores 31
*Local retail stores are defined as small businesses, independent retailers, or boutique shops which are not part of national chains.
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66% are looking to buy items “on sale” this holiday season and 29% consider shopping a social activity
Seeking Value and Discounts
Shopping for Themselves and Others
66%
Plan to buy items “on sale” this holiday season
47%
Plan to use store coupons this holiday season
43% 29%
Going Online for Sales Tax Breaks
32
35%
Claim to also buy gifts for themselves when shopping for others 40% in 2013
Prefer shopping with others for holiday gifts, rather than shopping alone, to make it more of a social activity 27% in 2013
Often purchase online vs. in-store when getting a sales tax advantage online (or when the sales tax charge is cheaper)
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About the survey
The survey was commissioned by Deloitte and conducted online by an independent research company between September 13–24, 2014. It polled a national sample of 5,033 consumers and has a margin of error for the entire sample of plus or minus one percentage point.
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