Turkey FOOD RETAIL COUNTRY REPORT October 2014 / Istanbul, Turkey

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Contents Introduction: 3 Forces of Change in the Turkish Retail Landscape .................................................... 3 Modernisation: ................................................................................................................................... 4 Reinvention and Upgrading ............................................................................................................ 4 New Concepts in New Places .......................................................................................................... 6 Regional Expansion ............................................................................................................................. 7 Existing Business Expansion ............................................................................................................ 8 Discounters ..................................................................................................................................... 8 Discounter Evolution..................................................................................................................... 10 Mergers and Acquisitions ............................................................................................................. 11 Multichannel Complexity .............................................................................................................. 13 New Business Models ....................................................................................................................... 14 Express Discounting ...................................................................................................................... 15 Franchisee Expansion.................................................................................................................... 16 eCommerce ................................................................................................................................... 18 Conclusions ....................................................................................................................................... 19

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Retail in Turkey from Today to 2020 Introduction: 3 Forces of Change in the Turkish Retail Landscape

A ranking of countries by economic performance among emerging markets in the 2003-2013 period produced a handful of interesting stories. These included China’s rise to global superpower status, Russia’s economic transformation from state-run to privatized, and Brazil’s growing confidence in the Latin American region and in the world. The ranking also produces one big surprise: Turkey. Few predicted that Turkey’s economy would grow at a sensational and sustained pace. From a retail perspective, Turkey has also produced many surprises. Turkey is now home to nearly as many discounter stores as Germany, has a more competitive domestic retail landscape than any other emerging market, and is embracing new forms of retail at an astonishing rate. In this report, we explore the potential of the Turkish Retail Landscape as it moves into a new phase. The best way to look at the Turkish Landscape and how it will change from 2014-2020 is to look at the forces of change. Kantar Retail has identified 3 major drivers for change in Turkey: Modernization—the process of reinventing what already exists. This ranges from redesigning a hypermarket with a new layout to installing air conditioning in the Grand Spice Bazaar in Istanbul. Kantar Retail feels that the biggest change in Turkey will be the modernisation of the existing trade, especially in the Marmara and Aegean regions (Urban Istanbul and neighbouring locations, Izmir, and Bursa). Regional Expansion—coming in several forms: • • •

Existing businesses, led by discounters, opening new stores in new cities and towns Mergers and acquisitions that are re-arranging the rankings Multichannel complexity—eCommerce disrupting trade because they are not tied physically to a geographic business model.

Kantar Retail’s view is that regional expansion will impact the central and Mediterranean regions most dramatically. In these regions, locally successful retail companies will go head to head with more nationally successful retail companies, producing mergers, acquisitions, and spin-offs at a rate not seen before. Ultimately there will be consolidation of key accounts, resulting in fewer, bigger retail customers. New Forms of Retail. Modern proximity grocery and online retail models will dominate the headlines, but many forms of new retail will emerge and will do so rapidly. The example of the successful launch of “UCZ” is just one example of how fast we think this transformation can take place.

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Modernisation: Kantar Retail defines “Modern Trade” as the 128 retail companies operating in Turkey that sell goods in chain grocery formats (hypermarkets, supermarkets, discount food stores, modern convenience, drug, online/internet, and cash & carry). Modernization of these chains is occuring in two ways: 1) The chains operating in Turkey today are investing in “reinventing & upgrading” stores they already operate, and 2) They are launching new concepts in new places. As a result of the modernisation efforts of these 128 chains, retail in Turkey will go through more changes in the next 5 years than it has in the last 5 years. This means the retail trade, consumer, and nongovernmental entities are all shifting. Shopper habits will change dramatically, and outlet/channel choice will change entirely from where it stands today. Reinvention and Upgrading Kantar Retail expects the most successful supermarket and discounter chains to replace traditional retail stores with more efficient (and cheaper) supermarket and discount stores. In addition, we still expect these chains to invest in shopping centre expansion by large hypermarket and supermarket operators. This will place the traditional trade under pressure in new places. Figure 1 highlights the extent to which modern trade is replacing traditional trade across the country (Figure 1). Figure 1: Growth of Modern Trade vs Traditional Trade by Region

Source: Kantar Retail

As a result of this rapid growth, modern trade saturation levels are increasing dramatically. There will also be limited slowdown in store openings. In the next 5 years the number of modern trade stores will increase by approximately 13,000, with the West of the country being prioritised over the East (Figure 2). 4

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Figure 2: Modern Trade Store Growth by Region

Source: Kantar Retail This level of saturation is being shaped by the discounters. In terms of stores, discounters have a leading market share in all 7 regions, with the highest in Mamara (63.5%) and lowest in Central Anatolia (43.2%). Without question, they will all need to reinvent their stores. The recent merger of SOK and DIA and their subsequent reformatting/rebannering program is an example of how big a change this will become over the next 5 years. Figure 3: Market Share by Region (Stores)

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Source: Kantar Retail New Concepts in New Places The shift away from traditional trade must coincide with a modernized consumer. Per capita spending is increasing in the market, and technology will act as a further enabler for Turkey’s modern shopper. Modern shoppers change their shopping behaviour. This means where they shop, what they buy, when they shop and how they shop becomes increasingly demanding (Figure 4). In Turkey, some consumers are modernising at a faster pace than others. Kantar Retail expects large multichannel retailers such as Migros to begin the process of store traiting—creating different solutions for some stores based on location and catchment demographics. This will lead to decentralization in store management versus headquarter decision-making. It will also create opportunities for different types of innovation to take place in multiple locations at the same time. Keeping track of these innovations will be challenging but will largely be confined to one or two sophisticated retailers. Figure 4: Shopper behaviour

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Source: Kantar Retail One key demand of the modern shopper is simplicity. The need for simplification has taken on more urgency in Turkey, and therefore successful innovation will be “simple for the shopper” and simple for the store manager. This trend will continue in Turkey, and innovation will allow retailers to adapt and engage with the modern consumer. Transparency will be a sign of modernization. As technology grows, so does the ability for shoppers to know retail. Mobile allows retailers to engage with shoppers on a real-time basis and, as a result, shoppers can engage with retailers as well.

Regional Expansion Retailers in densely stored areas of Turkey will have incentives to move to new regions. Regional expansion will come in two forms: 1) Existing businesses opening new stores in new cities and towns; 2) New businesses such as eCommerce disrupting trade because they are not tied physically to a geographic business model. Kantar Retail’s view is that regional expansion will impact the central and Mediterranean regions most dramatically. In these regions successful local retail companies will go head to head with more nationally successful retail companies, producing mergers, acquisitions, and spin-offs at a rate not seen before.

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Existing Business Expansion Large chains such as Migros, SOK, BiM, and A101 will take their already successful stores and open more of them in new places. This in itself is not surprising and not entirely disruptive. Modifying successful formats to reach consumers in new ways will be far more disruptive. Here we have a look at how retailers are either narrowing or expanding categories, or narrowing and expanding choice, to create new business concepts. Retailer models are changing in Turkey and will shape the Turkish retail landscape in the future (Figure 5).

Narrow

Breadth (# of categories)

Wide

Figure 5: Retailer models in Turkey

Metro

Carrefour, Kipa Migros Virtual Market

MMM, Maxi, 5M

SUPERMARKETS BIZIM

M, MigrosJet

BIM

Shallow

Macrocentre

Specialty stores

Depth (# of alternatives in category)

Deep

Discounters The discounter channel is the largest retail channel in Turkey, with a market share of over 34%. Its grocery market share is even larger, totalling 41% in 2013 and growing to 53% in 2018 (Figure 6). The channel is also the fastest-growing channel, with a CAGR of 19.6% from 2013 to 2018. Figure 6: Turkish Retail Landscape Market share

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Source: Kantar Retail Retailers like BIM and A101 have grown at the expense of traditional trade. As a result, discounters have been significantly driving change in the Turkish grocery landscape. This trend looks set to continue as the discounters rapidly expand in areas such as Marmara and Central Anatolia as well as fill-in areas where modern trade has made less of an impact (e.g., Black Sea, E, SE Anatolia). (Figure7) Figure 7: Discounter Stores Added by Region in the Next 5 Years 2013 - 2018

Source: Kantar Retail 9

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In Turkey, discounters have enjoyed strong growth without much pressure or resistance. This means consolidation within the discounter channel is already underway to some extent and especially sped up through the acquisition of Dia by Sok. However, this period of tranquillity is under threat as discounters face cannibalisation and pressure on like-for-like sales. Discounters are currently seen as neighborhood stores who offer a unique mix of weekly promotions. But, with these added pressures on the business, discounters will have to go through a stage of evolution. Discounter Evolution Kantar Retail has witnessed a softening of the discounter concept in many countries across Europe. Discounters such as Lidl and Aldi have had to adapt to changing shopper behavior, stronger competition, and internal pressures. This has resulted in several evolutions within the business. (Figure 8) Figure 8: Hard Discounter Evolutions

Source: Kantar Retail The future of discounters in Turkey will center on these evolutions. This means the likes of BIM, A101, and SOK will be growing their assortment, with brands playing a greater role. Discounters will continue to win on price but will have to get a lot more creative with in-store space, location, innovation and formats. 10

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The most exciting example of this is the impending launch of BIM’s new concept, “File”. The 1000sqm stores, set to open in 2015, will be based on the model of Spanish retailer Mercadona, whose low-price model balances efficiency with aesthetics. BIM will adopt Mercadona’s most successful components, namely an Every Day Low Price policy, and a limited assortment offer in a fully-serviced environment. With a focus on fresh produce, as well as an in-store bakery, and fresh meat and charcuterie departments, BIM will be looking to steal market share from the likes of Migros and Carrefour in the supermarket space. The stores themselves are likely to be located in urban areas, where they can target medium to high-income consumers. Mergers and Acquisitions Mergers and acquisitions continue to reshape the Turkish retail landscape at an alarming rate. Although a rapidly growing market, Turkey is also a fragmented market. This has caused confusion amongst many international retailers. Carrefour has given up majority control of its operations, and discounter Dia has sold its majority stake to Yildiz Holding (who operates SOK) after failing to reposition its proposition amongst shoppers. Praktiker, the German DIY chain, closed its nine stores after initially trying to sell them, and Metro-owned Real has been acquired by Turkish supermarket retailer Begendik. Dia is the highest-profile casualty in the grocery sector. Its failure comes down to specific faults in its model and proposition. First, as a “discount Supermarket” Dia used a wider range of promotional mechanics. The EDLP strategy of its main competitors (BIM and A101) has been seemingly more appealing to the demanding shopper. Dia’s focus on fresh also meant it was no longer perceived as a discounter, but as a supermarket with acceptable service. As a result, Dia re-bannered its stores to Dia Market to fit with shopper expectations, which was something in between a BIM and a Migros. This type of hybrid model isn’t able to deliver a coherent and holistic shopper solution. Tesco has already transferred its 95% holding in Tesco Turkey shares from the main PLC to a holding company called Tesco Overseas. Tesco is an example of what other big customers are facing and with this lack of funding and difficulty achieving any return on investment, a substantial transformation of the business is needed. However, this period of transformation has opened up a window of opportunity for local modern chains, whose main focus is not on packaged goods, but on excelling in fresh and having and EDLP selection of KPI items. Regional differences in Turkey also allow local retailers to target local shoppers and interact with them on a personal level (Figure 9) Figure 9: Service at Local Modern chains

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By finding a niche or building on local shopper understanding and offer, local chains have been able to fight back against large chains (what suppliers would deem national accounts). Consequently these local modern chains are now starting to win market share (Figure 10 ). Figure 10: Market share MLT vs National accounts (stores)

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Source: Kantar Retail As a result, Kantar Retail foresees further action in the M&A space, with other retailers in danger of being acquired. Multichannel Complexity Supermarkets operators such as Migros and Kipa have also had moderate success in the past, opening up big stores with larger assortments and better choice for shoppers. During this time, a lot of in-store focus has been on promotion and packaged grocery. However, these retailers are now facing external and internal issues. Scaling up the business is seen as a key strategy in transforming the business. Other transformations have centred on multichannel, in-store innovation, and improving fresh credentials. Migros is seemingly dedicated to better pricing, especially in price-matching discounters in basic private label products. Still, it has also re-launched its Sanal Market online store, looking at promoting bulk selling for home delivery. Tesco has also launched its grocery home shopping service in Turkey. The service is called Kipa Kapımda. Considering the significant costs involved in logistics and fulfilment, Tesco is likely to face further issues with profitability. Online retail has not proven to be profitable for any retailer and adds further complexity to the retailer’s operation. This is an issue that all multichannel retailers are facing. For a retailer like Migros or Tesco-Kipa, like-for-like growth and additional revenue can be only achieved by adding services that will direct the traffic to the store and away from discounters and local supermarkets (telecom services and contracts, financial services, health services, ATM, selfservice checkouts). 13

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Another growing innovation to improve operational efficiency in the market appears to be around the checkout. (Figure 11) As mentioned, franchisee schemes will have facilitated this growth. However, a growth strategy on this scale is certainly more shopper-driven. These retailers see this innovation as key to both enhancing customer service and improving operational excellence and efficiency. Figure 11: Self-checkout at Tesco (Kipa), Migros MMM, and M-JET

Source: Kantar Retail

New Business Models As previously mentioned, retailers have identified the scaling up of operations as a means of counteracting discounter dominance and see it as the most promising scale opportunity. A shift to convenience/proximity for growth brings with it a series of operational, brand, and financial disruptions. The best way of doing this is proving to be through franchising. This is allowing chains to significantly grow their scale without the financial burden. Perhaps the most striking demonstration of this speed of change comes from discounter/convenience retailer UCZ “cheap” (Figure 12). Figure 12: Store Growth 2012-2018 - UCZ

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Source: Kantar Retail Although located solely in Istanbul, UCZ has grown exponentially. The question arises: how it has managed to do this? As mentioned, franchisee schemes will have facilitated this growth. However, a growth strategy on this scale is certainly more shopper-driven UCZ is incredibly convenient to shop in terms of both choice and size. At only 40-50 sq m, the store holds a limited amount of key items (300). UCZ’s opening times are even more convenient. For a shopper, the ease and convenience of UCZ make it an easy choice to their shopping trips. However, the most significant aspect of UCZ’s growth has been its partnership with one of Turkey’s largest Banks, DenizBank, which aims at helping financially distressed shoppers make payments. Express Discounting Alongside new models such as UCZ, traditional discounters will look to move into the “express discounting” space. This phenomenon has grown in Europe with the likes of Lidl and Biedronka in Poland opening up express formats in high-frequency, inner-city areas (Figure 13) Figure 13: New locations for discounters

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As discounters continue to get closer to the shopper, the big discounters in Turkey are likely to follow suit. This will see the likes of BIM and A101 open up more stores in these uncomfortable locations, such as train stations and apartment blocks. These stores will have to be realigned to focus on proximity as a shopper mission, meaning greater complexities for suppliers. Franchisee Expansion Retailers are aggressively pursuing the expansion of their proximity presence in most countries across the globe. Kantar Retail’s estimates suggest that top-20 global convenience retailers alone are expected to add 37,000 stores over the next five years. Franchising, as a mode of proximity expansion, could be a game-changer. It enables cash-strapped retailers to expand their footprint, scale, and profitability, without committing huge capital. An increasing number of European retailers are embracing the franchise model. Earlier this year, Tesco UK continued to trial the franchise of its One Stop banner with independent stores, having already trialled the model in South Korea. Kantar Retail expects this phenomenon to pick up pace in Turkey. Big customers such as Carrefour and Tesco have foreseen the potential of proximity and have adapted their growth strategy accordingly. Tesco can still expand through its convenience chain Kipa Express without heavy capital outlay. By 2018, these stores will make up almost 60% of its entire store network. This expansion is focused on the regions in which it already operates. (Figure 14) Figure 14: Kipa/Tesco Store Expansion in Turkey

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Stores: Kantar Retail The growth in proximity means increasing in-store focus for all these retailers. This has opened up an opportunity for suppliers to collaborate with retailers to deliver on shopper needs. This includes providing quality and service, quick and easy access, edited assortment, solution-orientated merchandising, optimum pack sizes, localisation, and value for money (Figure 15). Figure 15: Providing proximity shopper needs in Turkey

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There are opportunities and limitations to align with these new formats, and it is important to understand them in their entirety. Best in class suppliers must have a shopper-focused growth agenda, understand the operational and commercial model of the retailer, have the ability to adapt quickly to changing market conditions, and help us to differentiate. Its approach is fact-driven as opposed to brand-driven. eCommerce The Turkish market has been slower than lots of regional peers in making the leap to eCommerce. However, it is anticipated that the current population of Turkish consumers with access to the internet will increase from 36M today to 48M in 2020—nearly 60% of the population. In the same period the value of online retail will more than triple, from USD7 billion today to USD25 billion in 2020. The online grocery market will also rapidly rise from USD0.4 billion today to USD4 billion by 2020 as this increasingly connected country harnesses the potential timesaving and convenience aspect of the eCommerce. There are five different eCommerce formats that will drive change in the market. Regional Marketplace (Jumia) Regional marketplaces are aggressive in aggregating a fragmented market, and then giving control over to brands to engage that new demand. Leverage existing marketing assets to your advantage, especially the ones that play exceptionally well with a given region and have cross-border appeal. Most Regional Marketplaces do not have owned distribution capability, but they do likely have 18

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partners in the region that can provide logistics for manufacturers. Jumia has grown significantly in Africa and could potentially encompass Turkey in due course. Marketplace (Gittigidiyor- eBay) Local marketplaces—eBay often has dedicated websites for individual countries—are built to help brands/companies sell directly to shoppers in a given market. In order to guarantee the platform as genuine, expect marketplaces to come and ask brands to be present on their platforms as a sign of trust and authenticity. Anticipate even less distribution ability with local marketplaces than with regional ones. Pure Play (Hepsiburada/Amazon) When pure-play eRetailers get to the scale that an Amazon or Ozone would have, the focus is on driving efficiency and cost out of the supply chain to get to the best possible price for their shoppers. By far the largest potential barrier will be the high cost of fulfilment for heavy and bulky SKUs. This means it is almost impossible to have full distribution of all SKUs, as the economics of shipping do not necessarily work. There could be opportunities here for marketing centred on awareness, as many of these pure-play eRetailers are looking for ways to monetize the traffic/impressions they get across their websites. Multichannel (Migros- Sanalmarket) Robust web platforms will not be a core competency of multichannel retailers. This will result in an often-frustrating lack of compliance and execution as attention can be focused on the stores. It is crucial to fix the basics of online merchandising with these customers first before attempting to do anything more sophisticated. eGrocery (Tesco) The majority of eGrocery retailer assortment lists are limited to what is inside the physical store. Very few have dedicated distribution networks for eCommerce, and thus they pick from the store to fulfil orders. As Turkey is currently only beginning its eCommerce journey, most orders are picked from stores. Turkey has yet to move towards Drives like France, where customers can pick up orders from non-store locations. The primary difference is that this typically requires a very integrated supply chain with local transport or dedicated eCommerce facilities. Tesco operates Dark Stores that only service eGrocery customers in the UK, as it is more efficient and has less impact on in-store customer experience.

Conclusions Turkey is a retail market that will continue to surprise in three ways: •

Speed. The market will transform rapidly, both becoming more modern and also home to more sophisticated business conglomerates with the ability to innovate at home and expand abroad.

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•

•

Innovation. Turkish grocers will develop unique ways to engage shoppers, some of which will be borrowed from examples learned from other countries but many of which will be home grown. Entrepreneurship. New forms of retail will emerge in Turkey – such as the UCZ concept which is heavily entrepreneurial but also very interesting and unique. BiM’s upcoming launch of “File”—a discount supermarket concept loosely modelled after Spain’s Mercadona concept is just one big example of how creative Turkish retailers are becoming.

Kantar Retail fully expects Turkey to be one of the largest and most interesting retail markets in the Eurasia region, overtaking other countries in terms of business sophistication, innovative store design, and shopper solutions. With that said, Turkey will still lag other markets in some areas. For instance, inspiration for private label development will continue to come mainly from western Europewhere inspiration will continue to come from Western Europe. In Non-Food the globalization of fashion will march on and be led for the most part from companies that have the model right already such as Sweden’s H&M, Spain’s Inditex (Zara), the USA’s Gap Inc. (Gap, Banana Republic). Websites such as Amazon and eBay and marketplaces like Alibaba and Rakuten stand to gain advantages in the transformation of non-food in Turkey. This could lead to obvious advantages in branching out into consumable retailing in the future. Suppliers and Retailers looking to identify and build best practice should keep an eye on Turkey and learn more about: • • • • •

Express hard discount formats Multichannel shopper loyalty Fresh, serviced food departments Competition between regional supermarkets, discounters, and national chains High density urban retailing (Istanbul)

Kantar Retail looks forward to watching Turkey modernize, grow in scale, and develop new (and unique) business models.

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18 November, 2014 l Istanbul, Turkey

Turkish Retail 2020 Where to Play, How to Win Economic pressures and shifting politics, retail acquisitions and new store formats, explosive eCommerce growth and new shopper trends—the perfect storm of uncertain times and structural change have wreaked havoc on our strategic planning. •

The good news: in Turkey there are growth opportunities on multiple fronts, from traditional trade to local grocery chains and multi-channel retailers.

•

How will you plan for Retail 2020 and set your organisation up for success? Kantar Retail can help you target

•

Retailer Financial Models:

growth and build the strategies to

Understanding how your customers will

realize it in the new retail landscape.

make a profit, manage cash, and deliver ROI

Join Kantar Retail on 18 November to learn how to pick the right bets to grow your business. Our team of retail and shopper experts will

•

The Rising Stars of Turkish Retail: How new business models, the nonfood revolution, and the digitally connected path-to-purchase will transform competition and Create A New Set of Winners in Turkey including Çagri, Uyum, Ucz and Begendik, Gittigidiyor

•

Discounters on the Move: The

provide you with the insights you need to build a winning strategic plan for 2015 and beyond. Topics range from channel growth and shopper trends, to new business models and changing store formats, anchored by a conversation with Turkish Retailers:

Mercadona Model and how BiM is •

adapting this model for the Turkish

Total Channel Landscape:

market

Understanding traditional, local, and modern trade strategies & prospects for growth •

Turkish Shoppers and their Multichannel Tastes: Trips, frequency, and basket considerations by channel for 2020

•

Making Money in Express Supermarkets: A complete understanding of the global express supermarket revolution—working through your customer’s franchising operations, managing SKUs in tight spaces, and rapid urban supply-chain

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For more information on this workshop, click here, or visit www.kantarretailiq.eu/Events/EventDetails.aspx?id=607032

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ABOUT KANTAR RETAIL Kantar Retail (www.kantarretail.com) is the world’s leading shopper and retail insights and consulting business and is part of the Kantar Group of WPP. The company works with leading branded manufacturers and retailers to help them transform the purchase behavior of consumers, shoppers and retailers through the use of retail insights, consulting, analytics and organisational development services. Kantar Retail tracks and forecasts over 1000 retailers globally, has purchase data on over 200m shoppers and among its market-leading reports are the annual PoweRanking survey (USA and China), and Industry Shopper Study Across Retailers. Kantar Retail works with over 400 clients and has 20 offices in 15 markets around the globe. INFORMATION AND INSIGHTS Kantar Retail provides robust, data-driven insight that looks across markets, shopper and customer trends, presenting the most accurate view of the top Global retailers and markets. By transforming this intelligence into insights, Kantar Retail helps clients to understand the trends of today and prepare for the realities of tomorrow. Kantar Retail Market Insights studies over 1200 of the world’s leading retailers providing invaluable data and insights for the industry and for our clients. Clients access Kantar Retail’s Market Insights through its online platform KRIQ, attending workshops or conferences, through webinars or by having the retail subject matter experts visit client offices. KantarRetailIQ.com KantarRetailIQ.eu KantarRetailIQ.cn FOR MORE INFORMATION Contact

Amy McCoy +44 (0) 207 450 2609 [email protected]

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