Industrial Market in Poland Q1 2016

Industrial Market in Poland Q1 2016

The first quarter of 2016 saw a continuous increase in the

TAKE-UP Q1 2016

development and demand activity on the modern industrial 160 000

market in Poland. At the end of March 2016 total warehouse stock exceeded 10,300,000 sq m.

Take-up in Q1 2016 was high, with approximately 637,000

144 000

120 000 100 000

85 000

80 000

sq m

Take-up

140 000

140 000

76 00071 000

73 500

60 000

sq m of warehouse space leased. This was an increase by

40 000

8% (45,000 sq m) compared to the same period of 2015.

20 000

24 000

19 500

4 000

0

Upper Silesia and Warsaw Suburbs boasted the highest leasing volume, totalling 144,000 sq m and 140,000 sq m respectively. This was followed by the Central Poland (85,000 sq m), Poznań (76,000 sq m) and Wrocław regions (71,000 sq m). Among smaller regional warehouse markets, a significant demand was recorded in Bydgoszcz

Source: Cushman & Wakefield

& Toruń (54,000 sq m) and Tricity (24,000 sq m).

Stock under construction

Simultaneously, regions such as Szczecin (10,000 sq m)

The first quarter still indicated a healthy development activity,

and Rzeszów (5,000 sq m) attracted relatively little

with some 783,000 sq m of modern warehouse space under

occupier interest.

construction. More than 75% of this volume was found on main industrial markets, such as Poznań (184,000 sq m),

With regard to the demand structure, renewals and new

Warsaw Suburbs (110,000 sq m), Central Poland (106,000

lease agreements accounted for the largest share (47%

sq m) and Upper Silesia (91,000 sq m). An increased activity

and 46%) of all transactions recorded in the first quarter of

was recorded also among the developers in Kraków (60,000

2016. Extensions amounted to 7% of the total take-up.

sq m), Tricity (44,000 sq m) and Lublin (34,000 sq m).

As in previous years, take-up predominantly came from logistics (42%) and retail operators (16%), followed by

STOCK UNDER CONSTRUCTION Q1 2016

electronics (7%), light industry (7%), food, and archives

sq m

(4% each).

200 000 180 000 160 000 140 000 120 000 100 000 80 000 60 000 40 000 20 000 0

184 000

110 000 106 000 91 000

81 000 60 000 44 000

8 000

Source: Cushman & Wakefield

2 | Cushman & Wakefield

99 000

Industrial Market in Poland Q1 2016

Vacancy

SUPPLY AND STOCK Q1 2016

As a result of a healthy demand, vacancy rates stood at a

3 000 000

160 000 2 382 000 140 000

2 500 000

available warehouse space at the end of March 2016. The Stock [sq m]

the end of March 2015 (6.3%). The highest vacancy rate was reported in the regions of Warsaw Suburbs (9.6%) and Warsaw Inner City (8.9%).

120 000

1 850 000

2 000 000

vacancy rate decreased by approx. 0.4 p.p. compared to

100 000

1 481 000 1 500 000

1 335 000

636 000 60 000

1 000 000 685 000

40 000

328 000 213 000

500 000

Among major regional markets, lower availability of

80 000

1 391 000

20 000

0

warehouse space was recorded in Wrocław (5.6%), Central

Supply [sq m]

low level of 5.9%, which equates to 611,000 sq m of

-

Poland (4.6%), Upper Silesia (4.3%) and Poznań (3.5%). Stock

VACANCY Q1 2016

Supply

Source: Cushman & Wakefield

12,00%

229 000

Vacancy [sqm]

200 000

10,00%

Rents

8,00%

Headline rents on the largest markets remained stable.

150 000 80 000

100 000

6,00% 78 000

61 000 62 000

4,00%

52 000

50 000

26 000 19 000 2,00% 4 000 0,00%

0

Vacancy Rate [%]

250 000

The highest rates are still charged in the urban area of Warsaw (EUR 4.00-5.40/sq m/month), and the lowest in the region of Central Poland (EUR 2.40-3.95/sq m/month) and in the capital’s fringe areas (EUR 2.50-3.80/sq m/month). Rental rates in the remaining regions stood at EUR 2.50-4.00/sq m/month.

Vacancy

Vacancy Rate

Source: Cushman & Wakefield

Supply

REGION

BASE RENT [EUR/SQ M/MONTH]

EFFECTIVE RENT [EUR/SQ M/MONTH]

Warsaw City

4.00 – 5.40

3.20 – 4.50

Warsaw Suburbs

2.50 – 3.80

1.90 – 3.20

Upper Silesia

2.90 – 3.40

2.20 – 3.10

Growing developers’ activity resulted in a high level of new supply completed in the first quarter of 2016. Warehouse space in Poland increased by 447,000 sq m, representing almost half of the total supply recorded in the previous year (935,000 sq m).

Poznań

3.00 – 3.50

2.30 – 2.90

Central Poland

2.40 – 3.95

1.90 – 3.10

Wrocław

3.00 – 3.60

2.30 – 3.00

Warsaw Suburbs accounted for the largest amount of

Tricity

2.80 – 3.20

2.50 – 2.80

space delivered to the Polish market (141,000 sq m),

Kraków

3.60 – 4.20

2.90 – 3.60

Szczecin

3.00 – 3.95

2.70 – 3.40

Toruń & Bydgoszcz

2.70 – 3.50

2.30 – 2.90

Rzeszów

approx. 3.50

approx. 2.95

Lublin

3.30 – 4.10

2.70 – 3.20

followed by Upper Silesia (86,000 sq m) and Central Poland (85,000 sq m). Poznań (40,000 sq m) and Wrocław (24,000 sq m) saw lower levels of new warehouse space completions.

Source: Cushman & Wakefield

3 | Cushman & Wakefield

Industrial Market in Poland Q1 2016 Regional Cities Warsaw

Poznań

Warsaw remains the largest warehouse market in Poland,

Poznań is one of the fastest-growing warehouse markets in

with approximately 3,070,000 sq m of modern warehouse

Poland, with total modern warehouse stock amounting to

space at the end of Q1 2016. In the first quarter both

1,481,000 sq m at the end of Q1 2016. New supply stood at

development and leasing activity stood at high levels.

a low level of 40,000 sq m; however, approx. 184.000 sq m

Approx. 140,000 sq m of new warehouse space was

was under construction as of the end of March 2016. Total

delivered, entirely in the capital’s fringe areas. Take-up

take-up reached 76,000 sq m of warehouse space leased in

reached 159,000 sq m, which amounts to 90% of the

Q1 2016, posting a 17% decrease compared to the same

warehouse space located in Warsaw Suburbs.

quarter of 2015 (91,000 sq m). At the end of March 2016 the vacancy rate stood at 3.5% (52,000 sq m), an increase by 2

At the end of Q1 2016 there was approx. 118,000 sq m of warehouse space under construction, of which only 8,000

p.p. year-on-year.

sq m was delivered in the capital. In the last 12 months the

Wrocław

vacancy rate fell by 3.2 p.p. to 8.9% in Warsaw and by 1.2

Modern warehouse stock in the Wrocław region stood at

p.p. to 9.6% in the suburbs, which translates into 61,000 sq

1,391,000 sq m. Some 24,000 sq m of warehouse space

m and 229,000 sq m, respectively.

was delivered to the market in Q1 2016. Total take-up reached 71,000 sq m of warehouse space leased in the

Upper Silesia

analysed period, representing a twofold increase on an

Upper Silesia is the largest regional warehouse market in

annual basis. As of the end of the first quarter of 2016 the

Poland, with approximately 1,850,000 sq m of modern

Wrocław region saw approx. 99,000 sq m warehouse space

stock recorded as of the end of March 2016.

under construction. At the end of March 2016 the vacancy

In Q1 2016 approx. 86,000 sq m of new warehouse space

rate stood at 5.6% (78,000 sq m), an increase by 4.8 p.p.

was delivered to the market, which was three times more

year on year.

than in the same quarter of 2015 (30,000 sq m). Development activity remained robust with approximately

Kraków

91,000 sq m of warehouse space under construction by the

Kraków’s warehouse stock remained at the level of 213,000

end of Q1 2016. Take-up remained at a high level and

sq m, with no supply added in the last quarter. Development

stood at 144,000 sq m, almost doubling the result recorded

activity increased, with 60,000 sq m of modern warehouse

in the Q1 2015. Vacancy rates at the end of March 2016

space under construction. Take-up in Kraków amounted to

reached 4.3% (80,000 sq m), posting a decrease by 4.2

approximately 4,000 sq m, compared to 13,000 sq m of

p.p. year-on-year.

warehouse space leased in the same period of the previous year. The vacancy rate declined on an annual basis by 3.5

Central Poland

p.p. to 1.7% recorded at the end of March 2016, which

By the end of Q1 2016 Central Poland’s warehouse stock

equates to approx. 3,700 sq m of vacant space.

stood at approximately 1,335,000 sq m and rose by the 85,000 sq m delivered last quarter. Take-up reached

Tricity

85,000 sq m, compared to 145,000 sq m of warehouse

Tricity’s warehouse stock stood at approximately 328,000 sq

space leased in the first quarter of 2015. At the end of

m, with some 22,000 sq m delivered in the first quarter of

March approx. 106,000 sq m of warehouse space was in

2016. Development activity stood at a high level, with some

the pipeline. Vacancy rates reached 4.6% (62,000 sq m),

44,000 sq m of warehouse space under construction.

representing a 0.6 p.p. increase compared to the same

Take-up reached 24,000 sq m, compared to 18,000 sq m of

quarter of the previous year.

warehouse space lased in the same period of 2015. The vacancy rate increased by 2.8 p.p. on an annual basis, standing at around 8.1% at the end of Q1 2016, which translates into approx. 26,500 sq m of vacant space.

4 | Cushman & Wakefield

Industrial Market in Poland Q1 2016 Emerging markets Szczecin

Lublin

At the end of Q1 2016 warehouse stock in Szczecin

Lublin is becoming more and more attractive to the

amounted to approx. 160,000 sq m. In the analysed period

developers. The warehouse stock in the region stood at

the demand reached 10,000 sq m, which is a decrease

80,000 sq m, of which 6,000 sq m were delivered in the first

compared to the result recorded in the same period of the

quarter of 2016. At the end of March another 34,000 sq m of

previous year (32,000 sq m). As of the end of March,

warehouse space was in the pipeline.

Szczecin saw 17,000 sq m of warehouse space under

The vacancy rate increased to 4.2% (3,400 sq m.),

construction. The vacancy rate decreased to 0.0%, which

compared to lack of available warehouse space at the end of

means there is no readily available warehouse space.

March 2015.

Bydgoszcz & Toruń At the end of Q1 2016 Bydgoszcz & Toruń’s warehouse stock amounted to 145,000 sq m. Take-up reached a record-breaking level of 54,000 sq m. As of the end of March there was approx. 22,000 sq m of warehouse space under construction. The vacancy rate remains at a very low level, and at the end of last quarter amounted to approx. 1.1%, which equates to 1,600 sq m of vacant space.

Rzeszów The Rzeszów region experienced a dynamic growth of the warehouse market. In Q1 2016 total modern warehouse stock in the region posted an increase of volume by 27,000 sq m and stood at 251,000 sq m. Approximately 7,000 sq m were under construction. Vacancy rates did not record any major fluctuations in the last 12 months and stood at 5.5% (14,000 sq m) at the end of March 2015.

6 | Cushman & Wakefield

Industrial Market in Poland Q1 2016

Cushman & Wakefield’s Selected Transactions in Q1 2016 CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD WYBRANE TRANSAKCJE - II KWARTAŁ 2015 P3 PIOTRKÓW

CENTRAL POLAND REGION

InPost, the biggest private postal operator in Poland, has InPost (Integer.pl Group)

signed a new lease agreement for a BTS warehouse facility totalling 14,700 sq m in P3 Piotrków.

PROLOGIS PARK WROCŁAW III

WROCŁAW REGION

Farutex, a countrywide food distributor, has renegotiated Farutex

a lease agreement of over 4,800 sq m in Prologis Park Wrocław III.

PANATTONI PARK RZESZÓW

RZESZÓW REGION

A global product leader in powertrain solutions for the Confidential Client

automotive sector has leased approx. 4,700 sq m in Panattoni Park Rzeszów.

PROLOGIS PARK DĄBROWA

UPPER SILESIA REGION

GTX Hanex Plastics, a leading manufacturer of GTX HANEX Plastics

thermoforming film, preforms and PET bottles in Poland, has renegotiated a lease agreement of over 4,600 sq m in Prologis Park Dąbrowa.

PROLOGIS PARK CHORZÓW

UPPER SILESIA REGION

RTV Euro AGD, a countrywide household appliances RTV Euro AGD

retailer, has leased approx. 1,400 sq m in Prologis Park Chorzów.

6 | Cushman & Wakefield

CONTACT: Tom Listowski Partner, Head of Industrial & Logistics Agency in Poland & CEE Corporate Relations

Cushman & Wakefield Polska Sp. z o.o. Metropolitan pl. Piłsudskiego 1 00-078 Warsaw

E-mail: [email protected] Phone: +48 509 510 429

Poland

Industrial.pl

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