TRANSACTION RESEARCH
RETAIL MARKET IN POLAND.
FOCUS ON 8 AGGLOMERATIONS
H1 2015
TRANSACTION
CONSULTING
VALUATION
PROPERTY MANAGEMENT
INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT
Contents Foreword .......................................................... 3 Macroeconomic Snapshot ............................ 4 Retail Market in Poland ................................ 6 Trends ............................................................... 8 Focus on Agglomerations Warsaw ..................................................... 10 Katowice .................................................... 12 Kraków ....................................................... 14 Tri-City ....................................................... 16 Łódź ............................................................ 18 Poznań ....................................................... 20 Wrocław .................................................... 22 Szczecin ..................................................... 24 Investment Market ......................................... 26 Definitions and Contacts ............................... 27
Author: Anna Staniszewska Head of Research & Consultancy Central & Eastern Europe BNP Paribas Real Estate
BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland Sp. z o.o. Atrium Tower, al. Jana Pawła II 25 00-854 Warsaw, Poland Tel.: +48 22 653 44 00 www.realestate.bnpparibas.pl BNP Paribas Real Estate is part of the BNP Paribas Banking Group KRS 0000123245 Sąd Rejonowy dla M. St. Warszawy, XII Wydział Gospodarczy KRS Regon 011890235, NIP 527-11-37-593 Capital: 14,200,000 PLN
All rights reserved. The report was prepared by BNP Paribas Real Estate. All data provided in the publication have been carefully verified, however the authors of the report shall not be held liable for any damage or loss which may arise from the use of the data published. Reproducing, modifying or using any of the contents hereof without the permission of the authors of the publication is prohibited under the provisions of the applicable law. It is permitted to quote the contents of the publication only when clearly stating the source.
RETAIL MARKET IN POLAND. FOCUS ON 8 AGGLOMERATIONS - H1 2015
Foreword The history of the Polish retail property market started 20 years ago with the hypermarkets. For the past 10 years the retail sector has been experiencing a new evolution phase: fashion oriented shopping centres. As previously with the hypermarkets, the second cycle is now coming to an end and the third cycle is commencing as a new era of maturity and diversification.
Fabrice Paumelle H ea d of R eta il Po la nd & C E E
Together with a changing market environment and new requirements of retail real estate players, the consumer habits are becoming increasingly more diversified while being more demanding in terms of retail concept offer and location. This results in the necessity to add value to existing mature shopping centres (through extension, repositioning and remodelling) and implement in Polish cities new retail formats such as: high streets, mixed-use properties and strip malls. Now comes the time for new concepts to enter the market, which trend may continue over the next five to seven years. Polish and Central and Eastern European retail markets are now mature and seem closer to historical western European standards. In such a challenging environment and given the differentiation of the retail sector, the advisory must be added to brokerage services. Retailers, developers and owners of retail assets, in order to make a smart and sustainable move, need an independent expert who will create a difference locally. A partner that understands local changes in retail and retail in detail. Let us think out of the box and focus on new tailor-made solutions that will result in achieving your competitive advantages in this changing world of retail. Let us change the game for retail together.
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RETAIL MARKET IN POLAND. FOCUS ON 8 AGGLOMERATIONS - H1 2015
Macroeconomic Snapshot
6 5 4 3 2
2014
2015f
2016f
2014
2015(f)
2013
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
0 -1
2001
1
Source: GUS (Central Statistical Office), BNP Paribas, f - forecast
Monthly unemployment rate in Poland % change y-o-y 25 20 15 10
2012
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
0
2004
5
2011
The macroeconomic situation in the largest agglomerations (above 400,000 inhabitants) has been always been considerably better compared to the national level, scoring lower unemployment rate (in most cases below 5.0%) and higher salary levels (approx. 20-30% higher than the average for Poland). Consequently, their purchasing power also exceeds the national rate from 16% to 80%.
7
2003
Retail sales have been following a similar pattern with an average 10-yr growth of 5%, though these are seasonally driven and dependent on external factors. The most recent data released by GUS (Central Statistical Office) shows growth of 6.6% at the end of June.
CPI
8
2002
The gross monthly salaries have been constantly rising, achieving around 4,040 PLN (~€974) at the end of Q2 2015.
GDP
2001
The unemployment rate has been declining for the last couple of quarters and in June was at 10.3%, which is the lowest since 2001. According to BNP Paribas forecasts it should continue to fall over the next few years.
% change y-o-y
2000
Except for 2011-2012 when inflation floated between 3.0 to 4.0%, CPI remained subdued over the last 5 years ranging from 0.9 to 2.6%. Over the last few quarters inflation has been negative, scoring -0.7% at the end of June, which is a time-lag effect of deflation recorded in Western Europe and the US.
GDP & CPI dynamics in Poland
2000
tHE RETAIL MARKET DEVELOPMENT IN POLAND HAS BEEN BOOSTED BY THE STRENGH OF THE ECONOMY Positive macroeconomic indicators have supported retail market development over the last few quarters. Poland has recorded sustainable growth over the last decade, achieving an annual average of 4% in GDP. In Q2 2015 the pace of economic growth reached 3.6% and according to economist forecasts, Poland should reach an average of 3-3.5% GDP growth in the mid-term horizon.
9
10
Source: GUS (Central Statistical Office), f - forecast
Monthly retail sales dynamics % change y-o-y
2013
2014
2015
10 8 6 4 2 0 -2
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
11
12
Source: GUS (Central Statistical Office)
4
RETAIL MARKET IN POLAND. FOCUS ON 8 AGGLOMERATIONS - H1 2015
Map of Poland with key macroeconomic indicators for the analysed cities
szczecin
LEGEND
407,200 542,000 8.0% €7,215
Population of capital / agglomeration 1 Unemployment rate 2 Purchasing Power
Tri-City
POLAND
461,500 982,200 5.2% €7,679
poznań
38,478,600 10.3% €6,170
Warsaw
545,700 824,000 2.9% €8,163
1,735,400 2,560,000 3.9% €11,222
wrocław 634,500 789,761 3.9% €8,225
MAJOR NATIONAL ROADS HIGHWAYS: Existing Under construction Planned
EXPRESS ROADS: Existing Under construction
łódź
Silesia* 301,800 2,161,400 4.2% €8,089
kraków 761,900 1 034,800 4.9% €7,337
706,000 927,200 10.8% €7,181
* Data for capital city of voivodship 1. As of December 2014 2. As of June 2015 Source: GUS (Central Statistical Office), GFK
Planned
5
RETAIL MARKET IN POLAND. FOCUS ON 8 AGGLOMERATIONS - H1 2015
Retail Market in Poland At the end of June 2015 shopping centre stock (traditional shopping centres, retail parks and retail outlets) stood at 10.5 million. In the first six months of the year approximately 183,000 sqm were delivered, of which extensions to existing assets constituted some 44%. Only one small completion was recorded in one of the largest agglomerations. Other retail formats, mainly stand-alone schemes (cash&carrys, electronics, household equipment stores or DIY) add approx. 2.2 million sqm. In terms of formats, traditional shopping centres constitute the bulk of stock accounting for 89% of the retail volume, followed by retail parks with 9% market share. It should be noted that over the course of the last couple of years the latter format has been gaining on importance with substantial share in new completions, especially by expansions. Outlet centres remain the least represented category of retail schemes with 2%. Analysing the provision of retail space by size of cities shows, the majority of stock is located in eight agglomerations, which have 55% of the market share. They are followed by small cites of below 100,000 inhabitants with 18%. Mid-size (100-199,000 inhabitants) and large cities (200-400,000 inhabitants) account for 15% and 12% respectively. Whilst in recent years the bulk of the new supply was delivered in mid and small size cities, over the course of 2016-2018 the trend is likely to reverse with major pipeline schemes located in large agglomerations. This includes the 100,000 sqm Posnania by Apsys (Poznań), Unibail Rodamco’s Wroclavia, which will offer 64,000 sqm in Wrocław, GTC’s Galeria Północna (65,000 sqm) in Warsaw and a mix-use 62,000 sqm Forum Gdańsk by Multi.
ANNUAL SUPPLY OF NEW SHOPPING CENTRES AND EXTENSIONS sqm
Extensions
New shopping centres
sqm 1,000,000 900,000 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0
2008 2009
2010
2011 2012
2013
2014 2015f 2016f
Source: BNP Paribas Real Estate, f - forecast
Types of shopping centre formats
9%
2%
traditional shopping centres retail parks retail outlets
89%
Source: BNP Paribas Real Estate
Top 5 completions in H1 2015
Project
Type
City
City size
GLA (sqm)
Developer
Tarasy Zamkowe
Shopping centre
Lublin
200-400,000
38,000
Immofinanz
Galeria Neptun
Shopping centre
Starogard Gdański
50-100,000
25,000
Galeria Neptun Sp. z o.o.
CH Ogrody ext.
Shopping centre
Elbląg
100-199,000
22,500
CBRE Global Investors
Atrium Copernicus ext.
Shopping centre
Toruń
200-400,000
17,000
Atrium European RE
Galeria Sudecka ext.
Shopping centre
Jelenia Góra
100-199,000
12,900
Echo Investment Source: BNP Paribas Real Estate, PRCH
6
RETAIL MARKET IN POLAND. FOCUS ON 8 AGGLOMERATIONS - H1 2015
Top 5 pipeline schemes in H2 2015
Project
Type
City
City size
GLA (sqm)
Zielone Arkady
Shopping centre
Bydgoszcz
200-400,000
50,000
ECE Projektmanagement
Sukcesja
Shopping centre
Łódź
over 400,000
46,000
Fabryka Biznesu
Retail park
Wrocław
over 400,000
35,000
Ikea Centre Group
Vivo! Stalowa Wola
Shopping centre
Stalowa Wola
below 100,000
32,500
Immofinanz
Galeria Galena
Shopping centre
Jaworzno
below 100,000
31,400
Mayland Real Estate
Bielany Wrocławskie ext.
Developer
Source: BNP Paribas Real Estate
Apart from these retail formats, high streets in major agglomerations, especially in Warsaw and Kraków, are growing on importance for both landlords as well as retailers. Considering the size of the Polish retail market and an inevitable change in tenant-mix of shopping centres as consumer spending patterns evolve, there is a lot of room for newcomers and emergence of new forms of retailing. Similar to previous years, in the last few quarters Poland has welcomed new brands who decided to enter the market. These include: KIABI (fashion), Superdry (fashion), Decimas (fashion), Colin’s (fashion), à Tab (home deco), Desquared 2 (kids fashion) and Courir (shoes). In categories such as multimedia, sport equipment, homeware and home accessories, shoes, health & beauty, the pool of available retailers to fill units is limited to a handful of key players.
Current and forecast saturation in agglomerations shopping centre stock per 1,000 inhabitants, sqm 820 701
Tri-City (Gdańsk)*
508519
Szczecin
891 762 555623 550600
Poznań
Warsaw
885 758
Source: BNP Paribas Real Estate
There are significant differences regarding saturation rate in agglomerations. Poznań and Wrocław belong to the most saturated league, whilst Szczecin stock remains moderate in relation to its population.
Łódź Wrocław
513 538
531571
Silesia (Katowice)*
As at H1 2015
Kraków
As at 2017 *capital of the region
Prime rental ranges in shopping centres in selected cities €/sqm/month Warsaw Silesia
Prime rents in the best performing shopping centres have remained relatively flat over the first few months of the year, while landlords in secondary schemes had to adopt more flexible approach in reletting strategies. Warsaw’s prime rates, achieving well over €100 per sqm per month are on average double compared with other agglomerations.
Kraków Poznań Wrocław Łódź Tri-City Szczecin 30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Source: BNP Paribas Real Estate
7
RETAIL MARKET IN POLAND. FOCUS ON 8 AGGLOMERATIONS - H1 2015
Trends
Magnolia Park Wrocław
Developers and investors are returning to large cities Over 40% of new supply scheduled for opening by the end of this year is located in large agglomerations. The trend is likely to continue over 2016-2018, provided all the announced pipeline schemes are delivered on time. It is also worth mentioning that the market of new-build will be again dominated by large players such as Unibail Rodamco, ECE, InterIkea, Atrium European RE, Apsys, Multi and GTC.
Mix-use schemes provide an alternative to traditional retail formats As the quality of urban life advances, mix-use projects are filling the niche within city centres. Thanks to schemes such as Ethos, Hala Koszyki, CEDET and Art Norblin (all in Warsaw), Półwiejska_2 and Bazar Poznański in Poznań, the city landscape is enriched by new types of commercial space serving multipurpose uses: it givies occupiers the possibility to stand out from traditional retail formats.
Below-expectation turnover is forcing mature assets to reposition While prime schemes enjoy positive turnover and footfall trends, many mature assets are faced with declining turnovers. These developments have forced some landlords to act. The range and volume of extensions, repositioning and remodeling of mature assets, which are currently in progress have never been so far-reaching. Forward looking landlords have adopted wide-ranging strategies to challenge newly built competitors and meet growing customer expectations. This trend is set to continue over the next few years with some 15-25% of space to be delivered from extensions and remodelling; hence the Polish market has already entered the modern cycle and is much closer to western European models of retailing.
High streets are gaining in importance with PREMIUM market picking up With changing consumer habits and ongoing urban regeneration, high streets are back in the game, especially in Warsaw. Many city streets with cafes, restaurants, new pubs and clubs attract not only tourists but also significantly more inhabitants. Louis Vuitton, Gucci, Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, Burberry and Ermenegildo Zegna opened their flagship stores and this trend should be followeds, like it happened historically in other countries, where premium brands opened stores. Polish customers are seeking new experiences and fresh brands that are not available in the shopping centre offer. The differentiation factor is of vital importance in modern retailing, giving high streets the ground to explore their potential.
8
RETAIL MARKET IN POLAND. FOCUS ON 8 AGGLOMERATIONS - H1 2015
Additionally, due to a growing number of wealthy individuals willing to buy luxury goods, there is plenty of room for up-market and luxury brands. E-commerce is storming Poland with omni-channel progressing at a fast pace Growth of e-commerce in Poland is much faster than in the EU, recording 22.8% growth in 2013 (by turnover volume) against 14.7% in the EU (by Eurostat). With an average online shopping basket at €539 compared with €1,243 in the EU Poland has significant catch-up potential. E-commerce will not replace the traditional form of retail but has already fostered changes in the retail scene. The revolution has taken its toll on electronics and multimedia retailers who have had to shrink space occupied. Other retailers seem to deal with it well by adopting omnichannel strategies, offering mobile applications and choices for delivery. Poland is going the same way as Western European countries, especially when it comes to “click&collect” points, which actually increase retail sales in stores. Shopping centres are becoming an important element of the city landscape and urban life For many visitors to shopping centres, the motivation is not necessarily to make an intentional purchase, but to browse
and enjoy the sensory experience. They make contact with other people as a leisure pursuit, which is a need that cannot be replicated online. Thus rearrangements of common areas, food courts, leisure time are necessary as shopping centres become fully integrated as part of the city – serving as urban space with proper social functions where people get together. Ongoing market consolidation in the large food operator sector is inevitable After the merger of big corporates last year – Auchan taking over Real - we are currently observing the largest rebranding and consolidation process seen in years. It mirrors a similar pattern observed in Western Europe a decade ago, the market consolidation may shortly impact non-food retail networks such as electronics, DIY or fashion. Investor chase for retail assets is unrelenting There is undiminished appetite to purchase retail assets in Poland with large international players in the game. With large lot sizes already sold, the volume of retail investments in Poland could exceed €1 billion by the year-end, as investors are willing to pay premium for prime schemes such as Riviera in Gdynia. Yet, they are also neglecting good secondary projects with substantial differences in price expectations between owners and potential buyers.
Bonarka City Center Kraków
9
RETAIL MARKET IN POLAND. FOCUS ON 8 AGGLOMERATIONS - H1 2015
Focus on Agglomerations1 Warsaw The total retail stock in the capital reached 1.8 million sqm at the end of H1 2015. When considering only modern retail space according to the ICSC, it stood at 1.42 million sqm. It should be noted that the city has overtaken Prague in terms of disposable income (according to GfK Purchasing Power Index 2014/2015 – €11,222 per capita). Warsaw is also a key business destination in Poland, which influences retail market.
Annual evolution of retail stock2 in Warsaw Agglomeration sqm 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000
Apart from the pipeline schemes in advanced stage, there are more projects planned, including Galeria Młociny, extensions of CH Janki, and Auchan Piaseczno, which will further expand the retail offer in the agglomeration. The term “high street” or “shopping street” includes a broad range of retail and service activities as well as fashion. Enhanced brand image and visibility along with lack of vacant space in prime shopping centres make high streets so attractive for new market entrants willing to mark their presence with flagship stores. The established high streets in Warsaw are Nowy Świat (focused on lifestyle), Chmielna (targeting mid- and mass market) and the cluster around Three Crosses Square and Mokotowska (driven by upmarket and premium brands). A number of luxury retailers are interested in opening their flagship stores there, which has been confirmed by newcomers such as Omega (Swatch Group watch premium brand) with their flagship store on the Three Crosses Square. Fashion brands such as Louis Vuitton, Gucci, Kering Group’s Saint Laurent and Bottega Veneta are based in Vitkac. Lous Loake and Manor of Elegance are located on Mokotowska Street. Others such as Forever 21 (fashion) have expressed their interest in the district.
50,000 0
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f
Over the last two years Warsaw has not seen any major retail developments and records lower density of 555 sqm per 1,000 inhabitants, which is below the average for large agglomerations of 583 sqm. The situation is bound to change over the next 2 years. By the end of 2015 the market will further increase by 33,600 sqm (including extension of Wola Park and new concept of Modo), followed by 178,800 sq m to be delivered over 2016-2018 (Galeria Północna – 64,000 sqm, the next phase of Atrium Promenada and Galeria Wołomin). Extensions will account for 18% of new supply.
Source: BNP Paribas Real Estate, f - forecast
Presence of selected retailers in shopping centres IN Warsaw Agglomeration Est. total GLA (sqm)
Retailer
Leroy Merlin
5
50,000
DIY
Castorama
4
28,000
Praktiker RTV Euro AGD Electronics
Entertainment & leisure
Fashion mixed
Fashion women
Health & beauty
5
15,000
4
10,000 18,000
Cinema City
6
Pure Jatomi
6
9,000
Multikino
3
7,500
H&M
15
24,000
Zara
8
16,000
16
14,400
Reserved Peek&Cloppenburg
3
9,000
C&A
7
8,400
Stradivarius
10
4,000
8
3,200
Mango
4
2,400
Orsay
13
2,340
Rossmann
17
5,950
Sephora
16
4,000
Super Pharm
8
4,000
11
3,080 10,500
CCC
21
Deichmann
13
5,850
Gino Rossi
13
1,820
Wojas
14
1,820
4
11,200
Decathlon
Super / hypermarket
18,000 16,000
Saturn
Douglas
Shoes
2 16
Media Markt
Mohito
Sport equipment
Prime rents in Warsaw agglomeration are the highest in Poland, achieving €95-105 per sqm/month. Similar ranges are recorded on major high streets for the same sizes.
No. of units in shopping centre
Category
GO Sport
8
8,000
Intersport
3
3 000
Auchan*
7
84,000
Tesco
6
42,000
Carrefour
8
40,000
E.Leclerc
3
10,500
Alma
4
8,000
Source: BNP Paribas Real Estate *Including real,- rebranded stores 1. Listed by size of agglomeration 2. Retail stock consisting of shopping centres, retail parks and factory outlets
10
RETAIL MARKET IN POLAND. FOCUS ON 8 AGGLOMERATIONS - H1 2015
The largest shopping centres (over 30,000 sqm GLA) and other retail formats 6 12 10 8
4
10
1 1
2
17
Other formats
1
Art. Norblin (mixed, P)
2
CEDET (mixed, P)
3
CK61 (RP)
4
ETHOS (P)
5
Hala Koszyki (mixed, P)
6
Factory Ursus (RO)
7
Fashion House Warszawa (RO) M1 Marki (RP)
3
Arkadia Atrium Promenada (ext. P) Atrium Reduta
4
Atrium Targówek
5
Blue City
6
CH Auchan Łomianki
7
CH Janki
8
Auchan Piaseczno
8
9
CH Ursynów
9 Park Handlowy Janki (RP) 10 Park Handlowy Targówek (RP)
2
14
16
Traditional SC
1
2
4
10 Galeria Bemowo
5
11 Galeria Mokotów
15
12 Galeria Północna (P)
6
13 Galeria Wilanów (P)
RP – retail park, RO – retail outlet, P – pipeline, ext. P – extension planned
14 Galeria Wileńska 11
3
15 Tesco Połczyńska 16 Wola Park (ext. P) 17 Złote Tarasy
13 9
7 9
€/sqm/month
Prime rent in shopping centre
HIGH STREETS IN WARSAW
lna
cat i a wsk
kot o Mo
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Szpita
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Rozbr
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Ko al. Róż sz yk ow a pl. al. Wyzwolenia Zbawiciela
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F. Chopina
No. of existing / planned retail schemes1
Current / future retail density per 1,000 inhabitants1
W
Piękna
43 5
555 623
zb Ro
4
owskie
L. Krzywickiego
a lec
Ludna
Książęca
Al. Ujazd
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Piękna
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GLA of existing / planned retail schemes1
So
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Kruc
5
l
ka ac Br
a
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Koszykowa
y Św
a
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Nowowiejska
a Hoż
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Prime rent in high street
a Hoż
So le c uc zk o
a Foks
Myia s
ólna
Wsp
na Poz
€95-105 €/sqm/month
Now
a wsk
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W. O Koszykowa
ińsk
czki
a Vitkac dzk ogro Now wia Żura
a
a póln
Ws
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d
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Now
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E. P
Al
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2
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Wid
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Now
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Ch
Krucz
ałko
Al.
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Kr
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17
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Wars, Sawa, Junior
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Z
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E. P
awł na P
a al. J
łota
St.
Tamka a ynack
ska krzy
a
yska
okrz
ęt Świ ka s ń a P ka Ślis na Sien
ka Pańs ka Ślis a n n e Si
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Tw
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1,420,500 sqm 175,000 sqm
€95-105
8 7
Other retail format or mixed-use schemes
€11,222 181.90%
Purchasing Power / Purchasing Power Index2 1. Pipeline (H2 2015-2017), 2. GFK
11
RETAIL MARKET IN POLAND. FOCUS ON 8 AGGLOMERATIONS - H1 2015
Silesia (Katowice)1 Silesia conurbation, with Katowice serving at its capital, is the second largest retail market in Poland, due to its high density population and wealth of its inhabitants. The current retail stock is estimated at 1.1 million sqm, of which 80% is modern stock by ICSC standards. Density of shopping centres per 1,000 inhabitants is 513 sqm. This relatively low level derives from the large area covered by the conurbation. The majority of cities within the conurbation have decent provision of modern retail space in different sizes and formats, but it is Katowice city centre with Galeria Katowicka and Silesia City Centre, which serve as the key hub for retailers. The cluster will be further strengthened by the redevelopment of Sezam. In addition to dominant regional centres located mainly in Katowice, a majority of the cities within conurbation are equipped with retail accommodation with large projects located in Gliwice, Zabrze, Bytom and Sosnowiec and Dąbrowa Górnicza. The retail stock in conurbation will be boosted modestly over the next two years with only 52,500 sqm delivered. Projects beyond 2017 include the 42,000 sqm Galeria Echo Katowice and Ikea Centre Group has purchased land in Zabrze with a plan to develop a large-scale project, but no further plans have been revealed yet. The main high streets in Katowice are 3-go Maja and Stawowa, but due to proximity to Galeria Katowicka there is not significant influx of retailers in the area, which is dominated by services and gastronomy.
Presence of selected retailers in shopping centres in Katowice Conurbation Category
DIY
Electronics
Entertainment & leisure
Fashion mixed
Fashion women
Health & beauty
Annual evolution of retail stock2 in Katowice Conurbation sqm
Sport equipment
Super / hypermarket
250,000 200,000
50,000 32,000
Praktiker
3
27,000
Castorama
3
21,000
Bricomarche
3
15,000
RTV Euro AGD
18
18,000
Saturn
3
9,000
Media Expert
6
6,000
Media Markt
3
3,300
Cinema City
5
15,000
Multikino
2
5,000
Pure Jatomi
3
4,500
Helios
1
2,500
H&M
12
19,200
Reserved
16
14,400
Zara
4
8,000
TK Maxx
3
7,500
C&A
5
6,000
Peek&Cloppenburg
2
6,000
Carry
12
4,800
Mohito
14
5,600
Orsay
17
3,060
7
2,800
Promod
Stradivarius
12
2 040
Camaieu
12
1,800
Monnari
9
1,800
Rossmann
24
8,400
Sephora
14
3,500
Super Pharm
6
3,000
Douglas
8
2,240
15
1,800
5
1,450 14,500
CCC
29
Deichmann
19
8,550
Ryłko
11
1,540
Wojas
11
1,430
Ryłko
9
1,260
Sizeer
6
900
Decathlon
5
14,000
Martes Sport GO Sport Auchan* Tesco Carrefour
10
6,000
2
2,000
2
2,000
10
120,000
8
56,000
11
55,000
*Including real,- rebranded stores
150,000
Source: BNP Paribas Real Estate
100,000
1. Capital of the region 2. Retail stock consisting of shopping centres, retail parks and factory outlets
2017f
2016f
2014
2015f
2013
2012
2010
2011
2009
2008
2006
2007
2005
2003
2004
2002
2000
2001
1999
1997
1998
50,000 0
5 4
Intersport
300,000
Est. total GLA (sqm)
Leroy Merlin
Hebe
Shoes
No. of units in shopping centre
OBI
Vision Express
In terms of retail chain presence, Katowice is well equipped with a majority of brands present. Prime rents in the best schemes range from €47 to €52 per sqm per month and should remain stable in the short- to medium-term. High street units values are approximately 10-15% lower.
Retailer
Source: BNP Paribas Real Estate, f - forecast
12
RETAIL MARKET IN POLAND. FOCUS ON 8 AGGLOMERATIONS - H1 2015
The largest shopping centres (over 30,000 sqm GLA) and other retail formats Traditional SC
Poręba
Zawiercie
Siewierz
Pyrzowice
12
TARNOWSKIE GÓRY Piekary Śląskie BYTOM
14 3
ZABRZE
9
GLIWICE
CHORZÓW
Siemianowice Śląskie
KATOWICE
5
13
6
Other formats
1
Jaworzno
2
Chrzanów
TYCHY
o
513 538
Dworcow
a
Wojewód zk
a
iego
iejska
a
Current / future retail density per 1,000 inhabitants1
Mielęc k
Starom
Pańki
Wodn a
awsk
cyjna
Mł y ńska
War sz
Szko
lna
Św.
Andrzeja
lna
Teatr a
szki
go
wskieg
Bank owa
a
Kośc iu
Kordeck ie
Chełko
zki
icz
3 Maja
pl. Szewczyka
ego
No. of existing / planned retail schemes1
Uniwe
Monius
46 3
ński
Banko wa
al. Korf antego
miejs ka
iew
Dyrek
Słowackiego
3 Maja
ck
Ryn ek
ka
Galeria Altus
rsytec ka
ka
Mi
ols
11
gi
Jana
ka ko ls
Op
So
Matejki wsk a oło
ar
Stawowa
ik
Sk
Śró d
Ch op ina
Rynek
a
pl. Wolności
M
oźd zie
3
1,109,700 sqm 52,500 sqm GLA of existing / planned retail schemes1
So ko ls
sk
RAWA Park Handlowy (RP) Fashion House Sosnowiec (RO) Supersam (mixed) (P)
RP – retail park, RO – retail outlet, P – pipeline, ext. P – extension planned
al. R
kie go
br
Forum Gliwice
17 Silesia City Center 2
rondo Ziętka
Sło wa c
Za
Europa Centralna
9
16 Pogoria
HIGH STREETS IN KATOWICE
ie
CH Skałka (ext. P)
8
3
7
icz in high street Primewrent a
CH Auchan Sosnowiec
7
15 Plejada
1
€/sqm/month
€35-40 €/sqm/month
CH Auchan Gliwice
6
14 M1 Zabrze
Mikołów
Prime rent in shopping centre
ck
Atrium Plejada
5
13 M1 Czeladź
15
MYSŁOWICE
Mi
Arena
4
12 Galeria Zawiercie
SOSNOWIEC
3 11
10
€45-50
Agora Bytom
3
11 Galeria Katowicka
DĄBROWA GÓRNICZA
16
1
17
8
3 Stawy
2
10 Galeria Echo Katowice (P)
2
4
1
Mariacka Mariacka Tylna
€8,089 131.20%
Purchasing Power / Purchasing Power Index2 Other retail format or mixed-use schemes
1. Pipeline (H2 2015-2017), 2. GFK
13
RETAIL MARKET IN POLAND. FOCUS ON 8 AGGLOMERATIONS - H1 2015
Kraków At the end of June 2015 the total retail stock in Kraków stood at 549,400 sqm. The market boomed over 2005-2009 with completions of Galeria Krakowska, Galeria Kazimierz and Bonarka City Center. Over the last two years, after the opening of Galeria Bronowice by Immochan, there were no significant projects delivered. It should be noted that the north of agglomeration has been developing first over recent years. This trend will continue as the only scheme, which is under construction, the 42,000 sqm Serenada, is located in this area. There are also plans to modernize and extend Krokus shopping centre, but no further details or timing have been announced. After opening of Serenada, scheduled the saturation rate in agglomeration will increase from 531 sqm to 571 per 1,000 inhabitants. Due to the fact that Kraków is Poland’s top tourist destination, the high street market is well developed in the city. The key areas include: Grodzka, Floriańska, the Market Square and Szewska. Apart from restaurants, bars and pubs, there are many mid- and upmarket brands operating within the cluster spurred by both tourist as well as a business traffic.
Presence of selected retailers in shopping centres in Kraków Agglomeration Category
DIY
Electronics
Entertainment & leisure
Fashion mixed
Fashion women
The vast majority of international brands are present in Kraków. The range of offer is extensive and diversified both in shopping centres as well as high streets. Prime retail rents in the city are in the range €45-55/sqm/ month in shopping centres and €80-90 in high streets.
Health & beauty
Retailer
Est. total GLA (sqm)
Leroy Merlin
3
30,000
OBI
2
16,000
Praktiker
1
9,000
Castorama
1
7,000
RTV Euro AGD
6
6,000
Saturn
2
6,000
Media Markt
2
5,000
Media Expert
2
2,000
Cinema City
4
12,000
Pure Jatomi
2
3,000
Kinder Planeta
3
600
Reserved
9
8,100
H&M
5
8,000
Peek&Cloppenburg
2
6,000
Zara
3
6,000
TK Maxx
2
5,000
C&A
4
4,800
KappAhl
4
3,200
House
8
2,400
New Yorker
3
2,400
Mango
4
2,400
Mohito
5
2,000
Orsay
7
1,260
Stradivarius
3
1,200
Monnari
6
1,200
Promod
6
1,020
Rossmann
9
3,150
Douglas
6
1,680
Sephora Vision Express Super Pharm CCC Deichmann
Shoes
No. of units in shopping centre
6
1,500
10
1,200
2
1,000
11
5,500
7
3,150
Ryłko
6
840
Kazar
4
800
Annual evolution of retail stock1 in Kraków agglomeration
Wojas
6
780
sqm
Venezia
6
720
100,000
Decathlon
2
5,600
90,000
Intersport
3
3,000
Sport equipment
80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000
Super / hypermarket
40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000
2
1,200
1
1,000
Auchan*
4
48,000
Carrefour
6
30,000
Tesco
2
14,000
Alma
2
4,000
Source: BNP Paribas Real Estate, f - forecast
2016f
2017f
2014
2015f
2012
2013
2011
2010
2008
2009
2007
2005
2006
2004
2002
2003
2001
1999
2000
1998
*Including real,- rebranded stores 1997
0
Martes Sport GO Sport
Source: BNP Paribas Real Estate 1. Retail stock consisting of shopping centres, retail parks and factory outlets
14
RETAIL MARKET IN POLAND. FOCUS ON 8 AGGLOMERATIONS - H1 2015
The largest shopping centres (over 30,000 sqm GLA) and other retail formats Traditional SC
1
2
3
8 2 5
7
6
1
Bonarka City Center
2
Carrefour Czyżyny
3
Galeria Bronowice
4
Galeria Kazimierz
5
Galeria Krakowska
6
M1 Kraków
7
Plaza Kraków
8
Serenada (P)
9
Zakopianka
Other formats
4
1
Factory Kraków (RO)
2
Futura Park (RP)
RP – retail park, RO – retail outlet, P – pipeline
1 9
€45-50 €/sqm/month
549,400 sqm 42,000 sqm
Prime rent in shopping centre
GLA of existing / planned retail schemes1
a
Wes terpla tte
na
asz
zyż a
Tom
Św . Kr
y
Szp
wn
ital
Flo ria ń
Św .
ska
ska
Jan a
wk ow Sła
Głó
ka Sto
lars
Sie nn
Wi
le
rudy
e
a
cz
i lew
Purchasing Power / Purchasing Power Index2
śl wi
Other Jos retail format or mixed-use schemes
na
go ie
dz
.I Św
o ar
astiana
tla
go St
Św. Seb
are
Die
Św. Gert
o ni c z a Kan
o
€7,337 118.90%
na
J. S
531 571
Current / future retail density per 1,000 inhabitants1
po
iśl ow ar
St
elo
15 1
No. of existing / planned retail schemes1
M. Zy bl i kiewicza
a
Brack a
Lubicz
ika M. K o p e r n
Mikołajska
Dominikańska
Bosacka
Pawia
go kie
k
Św.
Grodzka
Zw ier zy ni
ka
5
Blich
Jag iell ońs ka Wi śln a
ka
ńs
Grodzka
skieg
śle
ski
Św .M ark a
Poselska
szew
ów zk
óc
Wł
Pow i
pa
zkańsk a ncis Fra
Stra
ka ec
o
Retoryka
icza
w ckie
ńsk
Smole
g skie
. Mi Al. A
go
udskie
J. PIłs
szew
Stra
ja
ec Wen
Jabłonowskich
pań
Ry ne
le
Sz ew ska
Św . An ny
Studencka
Garncars
pl Szc. ze
Sz cze
wa
łowska
Kr
Po dw a
za
ic upn
Lo r etańska
Al. A.
PrimeCzysta rent in high street
zto
Radziwił
J. D
un
a
Rajska
Bas
Pijarska
aje
Ga
ck
a iejsk
Mick iewic za
ka
rs rba
ws
eli rm Ka
€80-90 €/sqm/month Czar now
Zac isze
HIGH STREETS IN Kraków
1. Pipeline (H2 2015-2017), 2. GFK
15
RETAIL MARKET IN POLAND. FOCUS ON 8 AGGLOMERATIONS - H1 2015
Tri-City (Gdańsk)1 At the end of June 2015 the total retail stock in Tri-City agglomeration stood at 688,630 sqm. The density reached 701 sqm per 1,000 inhabitants. The last large scheme completed in Tri-City was the extension and remodelling of Riviera shopping centre completed at the end of 2013. Over the course of the next few years, the agglomeration will record a substantial increase of new retail supply due to the pipeline projects of Forum Gdańsk and Galeria Metropolia, which will result in rise of density to 820 sqm per 1,000 inhabitants. On top of this, ECE is rumored to be undertaking an extension of Galeria Bałtycka.
Presence of selected retailers in shopping centres IN Tri-City Agglomeration Category
DIY
Electronics
Entertainment & leisure
Retailer
Leroy Merlin
3
30,000
3
24,000
Castorama
2
14,000
Praktiker
1
9,000
RTV Euro AGD
9
9,000
Saturn
2
6,000
Media Markt
2
5,000
Neonet
2
1,600
Helios
2
5,000
Pure Jatomi
2
3,000
Multikino
1
2,500
Calypso Fitness
2
2,000
Although Sopot may not have provision of shopping centres due to its highly touristic flavour, it does have a strong performing high street along Monte Cassino with growing demand from upmarket retailers. The other cities forming Tri-City also enjoy relatively high demand for high streets, which in Gdańsk primarily means Długi Targ and in Gdynia – Świętojańska. Prime retail rents in the best shopping centres in Tricity vary from €40-45 per sqm/month, whereas high streets are in the range of €30-50, depending on the city.
Reserved Fashion mixed
6
7,200
3
6,000
TK Maxx
2
5,000
New Yorker
6
4,800
10
4,000
6
2,400 1,200
Mango
2
Orsay
5
900
Camaieu
6
900
Sinsay Rossmann
6
840
13
4,550
Super Pharm
5
2,500
Douglas
8
2,240
Sephora
6
1,500
Vision Express
7
840
15
7,500
CCC Deichmann Shoes
12,800 10,800
C&A
Mohito
Health & beauty
8 12
Zara
Stradivarius Fashion women
Est. total GLA (sqm)
OBI
H&M
Given the character, population and size of the agglomeration, it cannot be perceived as one retail destination. There is clearly an unbalanced situation – with high retail density to the south, and relatively low saturation in the north.
No. of units in shopping centre
Ray
9
4,050
10
1,800 1,040
Wojas
8
Ryłko
7
980
Ecco
9
900
Annual evolution of retail stock in Tri-City agglomeration
Decathlon
3
8,400
sqm
Intersport
3
3,000
Sport equipment
140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000
Super / hypermarket
60,000 40,000
0
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f
20,000
Source: BNP Paribas Real Estate, f - forecast
Martes Sport
4
2,400
Sportsdirect
1
1,800
GO Sport
1
1,000
Auchan*
4
48,000
Tesco
4
28,000
Carrefour
3
15,000
Piotr i Paweł
6
8,400
Alma
2
4,000
E.Leclerc
1
3,500
*Including real,- rebranded stores Source: BNP Paribas Real Estate 1. Capital of the region
16
RETAIL MARKET IN POLAND. FOCUS ON 8 AGGLOMERATIONS - H1 2015
The largest shopping centres (over 30,000 sqm GLA) and other retail formats 9
Traditional SC
GDYNIA 10
7
SOPOT
1
CH Auchan Gdańsk (P)
2
CH Osowa
3
Forum Gdańsk (P)
4
Galeria Bałtycka
5
Galeria Metropolia (P)
6
Galeria Morena (ext. P)
7
Klif Gdynia
8
Matarnia
9
Port Rumia
10 Riviera Other formats
3
1 2
2 3 4
Fashion House Gdańsk (RO) Morski Park Handlowy (RP) Nowe Centrum Sopotu (P)
RP – retail park, RO – retail outlet, P – pipeline, ext. P – extension planned
5
8 1
€40-45
GDAŃSK
6
3
1 2
€/sqm/month
Prime rent in shopping centre
688,630 sqm 117,000 sqm GLA of existing / planned retail schemes1
HIGH STREETS IN Gdańsk, Gdynia and Sopot Grzą Tand ska eta Dzia na Dłu gie Pob rzeż Bosma Tokars ka ńska e
Grob la II
Złotników
za
iew
Ła
ego ski ow k j aCentrum a rsk A. M Haffnera Mo
y
zaw
Krzywy Domek
era
ka
js Wo ls Po
go
ika
Other retail format or mixed-use schemes
Purchasing Power / Purchasing Power Index2
kie
Dworcowa
€7,679 124.40%
tów
s Pia
Al.
h F. C
na opi
701 820
Current / future retail density per 1,000 inhabitants1
Prime rent in high street
a kow Par zka ald nw
d j a zd
na
€40-50 €/sqm/month
Gru
ego
ski
e obi
3
aS
Po
ieln a
etn icza Kal
icz a wn
Stąg
Chm
Lekt ykar ska K ozia
Kles
La Koł odz tarn iejs ia ka na ka Tk ac
Zby
tki
Poc zto wa
ary
a
Garb
Legionów
Dług i Tar g
Jan
Legionów Górna
cka
lebn ic k a
rs Wa
ojańs ka gen. J. Bem a
rna
Ch
No. of existing / planned retail schemes1
Maria
ów
Święt
€/sqm/month
ŚwPrime . Ducrent ha in high street
sin o Cas nte o go M kie łas terów u P Boha . K. gen szki T. Kościu
a
Oga
Szero
ńc
go
bp. Dominik
Dług a
15 4
€35-45 ka
na
affn
ckie
te
Śląska
Piw
J.J. H
inie
J. W
esterplat ńców W Obro
Prime rent in high street
egłości
M. Reja
10
per n M. Ko
€/sqm/month
w
al. Niepold
€30-40
SOPOT
Święto jańska
ka
sta
Podwale
Al. J. P iłsuds kiego Partyza ntó
Za Mu ram i
Szero
w Po
Żwirki i Wi gur y J.Kiliń s kiego
Okopow
IV
Obrońców Wy brze ż a
R. Tr augut taI. Kra sic kie g
Kielecka
Węg Targ low y
Święt ojańs ka
A.Abra hama
Armii K ra jow ej
J.Sło wackiego
a awka Warsz Pomorska
Śląsk
ska Pole lska Podo
3 M a ja
CH 10 Lutego Kwiatkowski S. Batorego CH Batory
GDAŃSK Wały Ja giellońskie
I. K ras ick ieg
Władysław a
GDYNIA
1. Pipeline (H2 2015-2017), 2. GFK
17
RETAIL MARKET IN POLAND. FOCUS ON 8 AGGLOMERATIONS - H1 2015
Łódź Since 2012, when the first phase of Ptak Fashion City was completed, there were no new deliveries in Łódź agglomeration. For over a decade Manufaktura has been holding a leading position on the local market. At the end of June 2015 the total retail stock was estimated at 510,350 sqm, which equals 550 sqm per 1,000 inhabitants. This indicator shall increase to 600 sqm per 1,000 inhabitants after the opening of Sukcesja (34,000 sqm GLA) planned for Autumn 2015. Over the next few years, there are no significant new retail projects in the agglomeration planned. Given the fact that many of the shopping centres operating in the city are relatively old, some remodellings can be expected. Range of prime rents in Łódź is from €41-46 per sqm/month, while high street units can be leased for €30-40. Piotrkowska is definitely the leading high street in the city, however, it primarily serves as a promenade with the offer dominated by restaurants, cafes, bars and pubs. Once Nowe Centrum Łodzi is completed, the area may develop further with complementary offer to Manufaktura and Galeria Łódzka.
Presence of selected retailers in shopping centres IN Łódź Agglomeration Category
DIY
Electronics
Entertainment & leisure
Fashion mixed
Fashion women
Retailer
Castorama
3
21,000
2
20,000
Praktiker
1
9,000
Bricoman
1
5,000
RTV Euro AGD
6
6,000
Saturn
2
6,000
Media Markt
2
5,000
Media Expert
1
1,000
Cinema City
1
3,000
Helios
1
2,500
Pure Jatomi
1
1,500
H&M
6
9,600
Reserved
8
7,200
Zara
3
6,000
Peek&Cloppenburg
1
3,000
TK Maxx
1
2,500
C&A
2
2,400
Carry
6
2,400
KappAhl
3
2,400
New Yorker
3
2,400
Mohito
5
2,000
Stradivarius
3
1,200
Orsay
5
900
Monnari
4
800
Sinsay
5
700
Mango
1
600
Rossmann
Annual evolution of retail stock1 in Łódź agglomeration
Shoes
Est. total GLA (sqm)
Leroy Merlin
Super Pharm Health & beauty
No. of units in shopping centre
10
3,500
3
1,500 1,250
Sephora
5
Vision Express
5
600
Yves Roche
6
360
Ziaja
5
300
CCC
11
5,500 3,150
Deichmann
7
Kazar
3
600
Ryłko
4
560
sqm
Ray
3
540
120,000
Ecco
5
500
GO Sport
3
3,000
100,000
Decathlon
1
2,800 1,000
Sport equipment 80,000 60,000 40,000
Super / hypermarket
0
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f
20,000
Source: BNP Paribas Real Estate, f - forecast
Intersport
1
Martes Sport
1
600
Auchan*
2
24,000
Tesco
3
21,000
Carrefour
3
15,000
E.Leclerc
1
3,500
Piotr i Paweł
2
2,800
Alma
1
2,000
*Including real,- rebranded stores Source: BNP Paribas Real Estate 1. Retail stock consisting of shopping centres, retail parks and factory outlets
18
RETAIL MARKET IN POLAND. FOCUS ON 8 AGGLOMERATIONS - H1 2015
The largest shopping centres (over 30,000 sqm GLA) and other retail formats 2
€41-46
Traditional SC
€/sqm/month
Prime rent in shopping centre
3 2
1
Galeria Łódzka
2
Manufaktura
3
M1 Łódź
4
Pasaż Łódzki
5
Port Łódź
6
Sukcesja (P)
7
Tulipan
Other formats
7
Ptak Outlet (RO)
2
Vis a Vis (RP)
RP – retail park, RO – retail outlet, P – pipeline
1 4
1
6
5
510,350 sqm 46,000 sqm
1
GLA of existing / planned retail schemes1
HIGH STREETS IN ŁÓDŹ
ka
sy er
skiego
i J. Matejk
tec
wa
skiego
ga
S. Kopciń
Wierzbo
A. Kamiń
S. Sterlin
POW
jowa Tramwa
Tkacka
iego
a
o
skieg Al. Piłsud a
Other retail format or mixed-use schemes
na
lnia
iego
dza
yczn
Fabr
Przę
a Targow
lińsk
J. Ki
ry
Wigu
Wydawnicz
S. Kopcińsk
Nowa lniana Przędza Wysoka
iego
ki
icza
Sienkiew
1Orla
Wodna
a Targow
lińsk
a
skiego
Al. Piłsud
No. of existing / planned retail schemes1 icza
Miedzian
za
zy
iar
Żwirki
Nawrot
Nawrot
T. Kościusz
ókn
Wł
Al. A
a
J. Tuwim
J. Ki
a
15 1
Zelwerow
Nowe Centrum Łodzi (planned)
Sienkiewic
Al.
icza
Prime rent in high street . Mickiew
towicza
G. Naru
icza Narutow
J. Tuwim
rie Cu eji k amenhofa a L. Z ws do rnik o ł e Sk op M. M. K
€30-40 €/sqm/month
a
S. Jaracz
tta R. Traugu
Struga
a Wólczańsk Gdańska
St
iego
r
a ug
i 1905 r.
ia
ier
6S
G.
ki
ia pn
Wschodn
6 Sierpnia
T. Kościusz
Zielona
a Wólczańsk Gdańska
1M al. Zielona
ska Piotrkow
aja
Zachodnia
Le
a
k Pomors
J. Kilińsk
Gdańska
A. P al. 1 Maja skiego Więckow
skiego S. Żerom Lipowa skiego S. Pogonow ich Kaniowsk wa Strzelców o 28 Pułku Łąk iego Żeligowsk
gio
Północna
Rewolucj
róchnika
w nó
Solna
Karskiego
Sre
o l b o r s ka
Północna
wa Ogrodo go e i rsk cza
iel
.M ska CmentarnRa
yń brz
W
2
Un iw
ska
now
Drew
550 600
Current / future retail density per 1,000 inhabitants1
€7,181 116.40%
Purchasing Power / Purchasing Power Index2 1. Pipeline (H2 2015-2017), 2. GFK
19
RETAIL MARKET IN POLAND. FOCUS ON 8 AGGLOMERATIONS - H1 2015
Poznań The provision of modern retail stock in the Poznań agglomeration totals 627,610 sqm, contained in 19 schemes.
Presence of selected retailers in shopping centres IN Poznań Agglomeration Category
The current density is 762 per 1,000 inhabitants, which is the highest rate among the large Polish cities. By the end of 2016, after the opening of Posnania 100,000 sqm offering, the ratio will increase to 891. The already tough competition among landlords will be strengthened further. Some retailers may also suffer the cannibalisation effect of oversupply and potential fall decrease of turnover per sqm. Taking into consideration the strong socio-economic background of the city, the retailer pool is very well developed and the vast majority of brands operating in Poland are also present in Poznań. The city also has some provision of high street units along Półwiejska, as well as the untypical formats of Bazar Poznański or Półwiejska_2 that accommodate niche retail space. Retail rents in Poznań’s shopping centres and high streets are relatively similar and on average are in the range €35-45 per sqm/month.
DIY
Electronics
Entertainment & leisure
Fashion mixed
Fashion women
Retailer
Leroy Merlin
3
30,000
2
18,000
OBI
1
8,000
Castorama
1
7,000
RTV Euro AGD
9
9,000
Saturn
2
6,000
Media Markt
2
5,000
Media Expert
2
2,000
Multikino
2
5,000
Pure Jatomi
3
4,500 3,000
Cinema City
1
Kinder Planeta
3
600
H&M
6
9,600
Reserved
8
7,200
Zara
3
6,000
TK Maxx
2
5,000
New Yorker
5
4,000
KIK
3
3,000
Mohito
6
2,400
Mango
2
1,200
Stradivarius
3
1,200
Orsay
6
1,080
Promod
6
1,020
Monnari
5
1,000
Rossmann
Shoes
Annual evolution of retail stock in Poznań agglomeration sqm
Sport equipment
120,000
Est. total GLA (sqm)
Praktiker
Super Pharm Health & beauty
No. of units in shopping centre
12
4,200
4
2,000
Sephora
8
2,000
Douglas
6
1,680
Hebe
3
870
CCC
11
5,500 3,600
Deichmann
8
Gino Rossi
6
840
Ryłko
6
840
Ecco
7
700
Decathlon
3
8,400
Intersport
4
4,000
Sportsdirect
2
3,600
GO Sport
2
2,000
Martes Sport
2
1,200
100,000
Auchan*
2
24,000
80,000
Carrefour
3
15,000 14,000
Super / hypermarket
60,000 40,000
Tesco
2
Alma
1
2,000
Piotr i Paweł
5
7,000
Biedronka
2
1,400
20,000 *Including real,- rebranded stores 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f
0
Source: BNP Paribas Real Estate
Source: BNP Paribas Real Estate, f - forecast
20
RETAIL MARKET IN POLAND. FOCUS ON 8 AGGLOMERATIONS - H1 2015
The largest shopping centres (over 30,000 sqm GLA) and other retail formats
€45-50
Traditional SC
€/sqm/month
Prime rent in shopping centre 2
4
1
CH Auchan Komorniki
2 3
CH Auchan Tarnowo Podgórne Galeria Malta
4
Galeria Pestka
5
King Cross Marcelin
6
M1 Poznań
7
Poznań City Center
8
Posnania (P)
9
Stary Browar
Other formats
2
5 7
9
3
1
Factory Poznań (RO)
2
Kupiec Poznański
3
Park Handlowy IKEA (RP)
8
3
1
RP – retail park, RO – retail outlet, P – pipeline
6
627,610 sqm 106,600 sqm
1
GLA of existing / planned retail schemes1
Wronie cka
ska
Szew
Klaszto rna Ślusarska
Garbary
Rynkow a
Wrocław ska
Szkoln a
a ow Łąk
Garba ry
Ryb aki
Długa
ka elec Strz
9
Kw ia to w a
Zielona
aki Ryb
ika ern Kop
Przemysłowa
Ko ści usz ki
Wodna
Gołębia
ka Szymańskiego Po Wyso dg St órn rz ele a ck a 2 Zielona
Ogrodo wa
Woźna
Za Bramką
Rata jczak a
Po dg ór na
St rz ało wa
rs ka
Galeria MM
PÓŁWIEJSKA_2 al. Kr óla Pr zemy sła II
Stary R ynek Kozia
Bazar Poznańskizia
Święty Marcin
Powstańców Wielkop olskic h
Mat yi
Sieroca
Ludgardy
Al. Marcinkowskiego
Paderewskiego
ary Piek
i szk ciu Koś
i ośc egł odl iep ja N ale
Towaro wa
plac Wolno ści
Mokra Dominikań ska Kramarsk a Stary Ryn ek Wielka
Ko
Świę ty Ma rcin
ca rn Ga Tacza ka
plac Wolno ści
23 L uteg o
Kr ys iew Półw icz iejsk a a
Gwar na
Prime rent in high street
Nowowiejs kiego
Fre dr y
go kie ńs y ż iel M 27 Grudnia
23 Lutego
Kantak a
Kościuszk i
aleja N iepodle głości
€35-45 €/sqm/month
pl. C. Ratajskiego
aja 3M
niawskiego Wie
HIGH STREETS IN Poznań
Other retail format or mixed-use schemes
19 2
No. of existing / planned retail schemes1
762 891
Current / future retail density per 1,000 inhabitants1
€8,163 132.30%
Purchasing Power / Purchasing Power Index2 1. Pipeline (H2 2015-2017), 2. GFK
21
RETAIL MARKET IN POLAND. FOCUS ON 8 AGGLOMERATIONS - H1 2015
Wrocław The retail market in Wrocław agglomeration is among the most mature in Poland, with extensive provision of modern schemes, which in total have 598,760 sqm of space. It translates into 758 per 1,000 inhabitants, which is the second highest density rate amongst the largest cities in Poland. This highly competitive environment will become even tougher for both landlords and retailers as the market will be further expanded over the next two years by two extensions and one new scheme totaling 100,000 sqm. Wrocław, which is both a good tourist as well as business destination, has relatively well-developed high streets along Świdnicka, Oławska and Market Square. This market segment has been gaining in importance with substantial retailer demand for this type of retail and service accommodation. Retailers have to be prepared to pay on average from €42 to 47 per sqm for a prime retail unit in a well-performing scheme. The best high streets rents are in the range of €35-40 per sqm per month.
Presence of selected retailers in shopping centres IN Wrocław Agglomeration Category
DIY
Electronics
Entertainment & leisure
Fashion mixed
Fashion women
Health & beauty
Retailer
Annual evolution of retail stock in Wrocław Agglomeration sqm 160,000
Sport equipment
140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000
Est. total GLA (sqm)
Castorama
4
28,000
OBI
2
16,000
Leroy Merlin
1
10,000
Praktiker
1
9,000
Saturn
2
6,000
RTV Euro AGD
5
5,000
Media Markt
2
5,000
Media Expert
4
4,000
Multikino
2
5,000
Pure Jatomi
3
4,500
Cinema City
1
3,000
Helios
1
2,500
Kinder Planeta
9
1,800
TK Maxx
3
7,500
H&M
5
8,000
Zara
4
8,000
Reserved
7
6,300
New Yorker
5
4,000
C&A
3
3,600
Mohito
7
2,800
Mango
3
1,800
Stradivarius
4
1,600
Orsay
8
1,440
Promod
5
850
Tally Weijl
3
600 3 150
Rossmann
9
Sephora
7
1,750
Super Pharm
3
1,500
Douglas
5
1,400
Vision Express
8
960
10
5,000 4,050
CCC
Shoes
No. of units in shopping centre
Deichmann
9
Ryłko
6
840
Kazar
4
800
Gino Rossi
5
700
Wojas
5
650
Decathlon
3
8,400
Intersport
3
3,000
GO Sport
2
2,000
Sportsdirect
1
1,800
Tesco
4
28,000
Auchan*
2
24,000 10,500
E.Leclerc
3
Piotr i Paweł
4
5,600
40,000
Alma
1
2,000
20,000
Biedronka
2
1,400
Super / hypermarket
60,000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f
0
*Including real,- rebranded stores Source: BNP Paribas Real Estate
Source: BNP Paribas Real Estate, f - forecast
22
RETAIL MARKET IN POLAND. FOCUS ON 8 AGGLOMERATIONS - H1 2015
The largest shopping centres (over 30,000 sqm GLA) and other retail formats Traditional SC
€42-47 €/sqm/month
Prime rent in shopping centre 4
1
Arkady Wrocławskie
2
Borek
3 4
CH Auchan Bielany Wrocławskie Korona
5
Magnolia Park (ext. P)
6
Pasaż Grunwaldzki
7
Renoma
8
Wroclavia (P)
Other formats
5 6 1 4
1
7
598,760 sqm 100,000 sqm
3
Kraińskiego K. Janickiego
Z. Kr asiń skieg o
go
Knia ziew icza
k ie
H. Ko łłątaja
Podwale
Wierzb owa
Nowa Dworc owa
Staw owa
Piłsu dski ego
Gwar na
Kom and ors ka
1
Świd nick a
W. B ogus ławs kieg Nasy o pow a Swo bod na
Kościu szki
Pod wal e
Dą br ow s
Teatraln a
Czysta
7
Bern ardy ńska
Szew ska Łacia rska Bisk upia Krowia Krawie cka Ś w. Wit a Św. Kata rzyny
Kuźn icza
Odrz ańsk a
Świd nicka
Widok
Menn icza
Podwale
Kośc iuszk i
Ślą sk ich
ia ys St
Pił su ds kie go
Po ws tań có w
Kole jow a
Zi eli ńs kie go
Pszenna Owsiana ka ńs zy r e Lubu ska kwi S
sta Pro
Żyt nia
Jęc zm ien na
a el w Le
Jana Ewangelisty
Ośw ięcim skich
Świe bodz ka
a ow lej Ko
ka yńs bisz Gra
Po dw ale
GLA of existing / planned retail schemes1
pl. Dominikański
Oław ska
P. Skar gi
ta os Pr
Są do wa
a zow Tęc I. P aw łow a
Kr up nic za
Po dw ale
Ofia r zim ierz aW ielki ego pl. Wo lno ści
pl. N owy Tar g
Wita Stwo sza Kurz y Tar g
Ryne k
Ka
Zam kow a
Podwale
P. Wł o
ląt Or pl.
sk ich
pl. S olny
dk ow ica
Kotla rsk Igieln a a
Ryne k
Ryne k
Pasaż
Rusk a
Lw street Prime rent in high ow a tnicz Robo
Św. M ikoła ja
Świd nicka
Rus ka
ikołaja Św. M
Kiełb aś nicza
Naby cińsk a Sok oln icz a
HIGH STREETS IN Wrocław
€35-40 €/sqm/month
Futura Park (RP) Park Handlowy Bielany (RP, ext. P) Sky Tower Wrocław (mixed)
RP – retail park, RO – retail outlet, P – pipeline, ext. P – extension pipeline
3
Ziemo wita
Factory Wrocław (RO)
2 3 4
8
2
2
1
Other retail format or mixed-use schemes
19 3
No. of existing / planned retail schemes1
758 885
Current / future retail density per 1,000 inhabitants1
€8,225 133.30%
Purchasing Power / Purchasing Power Index2 1. Pipeline (H2 2015-2017), 2. GFK
23
RETAIL MARKET IN POLAND. FOCUS ON 8 AGGLOMERATIONS - H1 2015
Szczecin Despite the relatively large population base, Szczecin has only 275,320 sqm of modern retail accommodation, creating the lowest density per 1,000 inhabitants out of the analysed agglomerations at 508. Since the opening of Galeria Kaskada, no major completions have been recorded: the key positions in the city centre have been taken by Galeria Kaskada and Galaxy. After suspension of plans to extend Galaxy, there are no concrete plans to expand retail provision in the city centre, whereas the peripheral location of Auchan Kołbaskowo is subject to rumours about expansion by Ikea. Given the limited number of retail schemes, the agglomeration has also the lowest number of brands operating. Compared with other large agglomerations, Szczecin high streets are in their infancy in both supply and demand. Retail units along Aleja Wyzwolenia and Aleja Wojska Polskiego are mainly occupied by services and catering offer with no upmarket or luxury brands present. The future of high streets in Szczecin can only be located between Kaskada and Galaxy.
Presence of selected retailers in shopping centres IN SZCZECIN Agglomeration Category
DIY
Electronics Entertainment & leisure
Fashion mixed
Fashion women
Health & beauty
Prime rents in shopping centres vary from €38 to 43 per sqm per month with high streets recording around €10-12 less. Shoes
Sport equipment
Annual evolution of retail stock1 in Szczecin Agglomeration
Retailer
No. of units in shopping centre
Est. total GLA (sqm)
Leroy Merlin
2
20,000
Castorama
2
14,000
RTV Euro AGD
4
4,000
Saturn
1
3,000
Media Markt
2
5,000
Multikino
2
5,000
Helios
1
2,500
Reserved
5
4,500
Zara
2
4,000
H&M
2
3,200
TK Maxx
1
2,500
New Yorker
3
2,400
KappAhl
2
1,600
Carry
2
800
Mango
2
1,200
Mohito
3
1,200
Orsay
6
1,080
Stradivarius
2
800
Monnari
3
600
Promod
2
340
Rossmann
4
1,400
Douglas
4
1,120
Super Pharm
2
1,000
Sephora
3
750
Vision Express
6
720
CCC
7
3,500
Deichmann
5
2,250
Kazar
3
600
Wojas
4
520
Gino Rossi
3
420
Decathlon
2
5,600
GO Sport
1
1,000
Intersport
1
1,000
Martes Sport
1
600
Carrefour
3
15,000 12,000
Auchan
1
Tesco
1
7,000
50,000
Alma
1
2,000
45,000
Piotr i Paweł
1
1 400
sqm
40,000
Super / hypermarket
Source: BNP Paribas Real Estate
35,000
1. Retail stock consisting of shopping centres, retail parks and factory outlets
30,000 25000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 2017f
2016f
2014
2015f
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
0
Source: BNP Paribas Real Estate, f - forecast
24
RETAIL MARKET IN POLAND. FOCUS ON 8 AGGLOMERATIONS - H1 2015
The largest shopping centres (over 30,000 sqm GLA) and other retail formats Traditional SC
€38-43
1
Atrium Molo
2
Galaxy
Prime rent in shopping centre
3
Galeria Kaskada
4
Ster
€/sqm/month
Jezioro Dąbie
Other formats
1
RP – retail park, RO – retail outlet, ext. P – extension pipeline
2 4
Szczecin Outlet Park (RO, ext. P)
3
1
1
275,320 sqm 6,000 sqm HIGH STREETS IN Szczecin
sk a ha lań Po d rska
lenia
Mazu
cka
a
Mariack
a
a Staromłyńsk
y
Tkacka
rodzic
pl. Żołnierza Polskiego
ległoś ci
bska Kaszu
3
ejki
polsk
u
J. Mat
al. W yzwo
Maz owie
Mało
iepod
Śląska
iecha Św. W ojc
ni ka er
.K op M
łły
pl. Lotników
kard Kaszu bska
Bogu sława X
Księc ia
pl. Zwycięstwa
o
aleja N
sk a az ur M
bł. Kr ólowe j Jadw igi
w Piastó Aleja
iastów
o ieg sk ko r Si
Aleja P
a Jagie
Śląska
ka ols ko p W iel
wa
Pocz to
Boles ława Śmia łego
wa Pocz to
Warszawy al. Bohaterów
Warszawy
al. Bohaterów
ietka
No. of existing / planned retail schemes1
lenia
ysław
a Łok
a Kujawsk
ysław
wo al. Wyz
Wład
Bogu
2
11 1
skieg
II
go
Więckowskiego St.
ouste
ska
o ieg lsk Po
CH Kupiec
Boles pl. ława Krzyw Kościuszki
Wład
ców Stali ngrad Obroń Ślą
o
eg
ski
Piłsud
Jagiell pl. ońska Zamenhofa
pl. Zgody
skiego
n.
ła aw aP Jan al.
ka
skiego J. Malczew
ay
R L.
Ge
pl. Grunwaldzki go kie ys a .R n.L Ge
ka ojs al.W
iałego
II
llońs
A. Ma łkow
ła
Jagie
wa Śm
Nowy Turzyn
w Pa
ńska
go skie Pol ka ojs al.W
Bolesła
pl. Odrodzenia
pl. Szarych Szeregów
ello
a an
Prime rent in high street
sino Cas
go
kie
ipc a
go kie ws e i łk Żó St.
z
ed
Ni
ols aP
5L
Jagi
M.
J al.
za
nte
wic
Mo
jsk Wo
€26-31 €/sqm/month
kie
go
kie
ws
ko iał
al.
Mic
GLA of existing / planned retail schemes1
Grodzka
. Ste
fana
Wyretail Other szy format or skieg mixed-useńschemes o
508 516
Current / future retail density per 1,000 inhabitants1
€7,215 116.90%
Purchasing Power / Purchasing Power Index2 1. Pipeline (H2 2015-2017), 2. GFK
25
RETAIL MARKET IN POLAND. FOCUS ON 8 AGGLOMERATIONS - H1 2015
Investment Market while investors’ interest remains strong, lack of prime assets and portfolio products limit the volume of transactions Investor interest in the retail market in Poland continues to be very strong. Yet, due to the limited number of retail schemes for sale, recent volumes have been humble with only €260 million worth of assets traded in the first six months.
Prime yields have compressed to below 5.75% with further compression foreseen with premium investment grade assets. The secondary schemes are usually offered at 6.50-7.50%, depending on the size and location.
A few spectacular transactions scheduled for the second half of the year (Riviera in Gdynia and the portfolio of Karolinka and Pogoria in Opole and Dąbrowa Górnicza respectively) will significantly boost the total size of investment deals sealed in the whole 2015, which may reach well around €1 billion.
Investment volumes by sector
Prime yields by sector
in €m
%
Retail Office Mix use and other
Industrial Forecast
Office
Retail
Industrial
10.00%
5,000
9.00%
4,000
8.00%
3,000
7.00% 2,000
Source: BNP Paribas Real Estate, f - forecast
2016f
2015f
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2004
2015f
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
4.00%
2006
0
2005
5.00% 2004
1,000
2005
6.00%
Source: BNP Paribas Real Estate, f - forecast
Selected transactions completed over H1 2014 and H1 2015
Project
City
GLA (sqm)
Volume (€m)
Poznań
59,000
227
Resolution Property / ECE
Focus Park
Bydgoszcz
41,000
122
Atrium European RE
Sarni Stok
Bielsko-Biała
31,200
85
Union Investment
Płock
28,500
70
CBRE Global Investors
Warsaw, Kraków
31,850
60
TIAA Henderson Real Estate
Opole
18,000
45
Rock Castle
Poznań City Center
Galeria Mazovia 50% of Neinver portfolio Solaris
Purchaser
Source: BNP Paribas Real Estate
26
Definitions The definitions listed below are consistent with the ICSC standards and have been used for the purposes of this publication: Shopping centre (esp. Conventional or Traditional SC) – a retail property planned, constructed and managed as a single retail entity which consists of a shared retail area of a minimum gross leasable space (GLA) of 5,000 sqm and at least 10 shops.
Kraków agglomeration: Kraków and Niepołomice, Skawina, Wieliczka i Zabierzów, Biskupice, Igołomia - Wawrzeńczyce, Kocmyrzów - Luborzyca, Koniusza, Liszki, Michałowice, Mogilany, Świątniki Górne, Wielka Wieś, Zielonki.
Retail park – a property with a consistent design, construction and management which consists mainly of medium and largesized specialized retail facilities, which typically share an openair passage or a parking lot and are not joint under one roof.
Tri-City agglomeration: Gdańsk, Gdynia, Rumia, and Wejherowo, and Pruszcz Gdański, Reda, Sopot, Cedry Wielkie, Kolbudy, Kosakowo, Szemud, Żukowo.
Outlet centre – a property with a consistent design, construction and management with separate shops in which the producers or retailers sell surplus stock, end-of-line products and products from previous collections at reduced prices. Warsaw agglomeration includes: Warsaw, Brwinów, KonstancinJeziorna, Łomianki, Marki, Piaseczno, Piastów, Podkowa Leśna, Raszyn, Błonie, Grodzisk Mazowiecki, Józefów, Kobyłka, Legionowo, Milanówek, Otwock, Ożarów Mazowiecki, Pruszków, Radzymin, Sulejówek, Wołomin, Ząbki, Zielonka, Halinów, Izabelin, Jabłonna, Lesznowola, Michałowice, Nadarzyn, Nieporęt, Stare Babice, Wiązowna.
Łódź agglomeration: Łódź, Pabianice, Rzgów, Zgierz, Aleksandrów Łódzki, Andrespol, Brojce, Konstantynów Łódzki, Ksawerów, Nowosolna, Ozorków, Stryków. Poznań agglomeration: Poznań, Swarzędz, Tarnowo Podgórne, Komorniki, Kórnik, Luboń, Mosina, Puszczykowo, Rokietnica, Suchy Las, Czerwonak, Dopiewo, Kleszczewo Wrocław agglomeration: Wrocław, Kąty Wrocławskie i Kobierzyce, Czernica, Długołęka, Miękinia, Oborniki Śląskie, Siechnice, Wisznia Mała, Żórawina. Szczecin agglomeration: Szczecin i Kołbaskowo, Dobra, Goleniów, Gryfino, Kobylanka, Police, Stare Czarnowo.
Silesia agglomeration: Katowice, Bytom, Chorzów, Czeladź, Dąbrowa Górnicza, Gliwice, Knurów, Mikołów, Mysłowice, Piekary Śląskie, Ruda Śląska, Siemianowice Śląskie, Sosnowiec, Świętochłowice, Tarnowskie Góry, Tychy, Zabrze, and Będzin, Jaworzno, Radzionków oraz Gierałtowice, Wojkowice.
Contacts Patrick Delcol
Izabela Mucha MRICS
Del Chandler
Chief Executive Officer
Head of Valuation
Managing Director, Capital Markets
Central & Eastern Europe
Central & Eastern Europe
Central & Eastern Europe
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
Fabrice Paumelle
Grzegorz Dudziak MRICS
Dr. Piotr Goździewicz MRICS
Head of Retail
Head of Property Management
Director, Capital Markets
Poland and Central & Eastern Europe
Central & Eastern Europe
Central & Eastern Europe
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
Natasa Mika
Michał Pszkit
Mateusz Skubiszewski MRICS
Associate Director, Retail
Operations Director
Director, Capital Markets
[email protected]
Property Management
Central & Eastern Europe
Central & Eastern Europe
[email protected]
Anna Staniszewska
[email protected]
Head of Research & Consultancy Central & Eastern Europe
[email protected]
Cover: Kupiec Poznański, Poznań - BNP Paribas Real Estate picture library P8: Magnolia Park, Wrocław - picture by courtesy of Multi Poland Sp. z o.o. P9: Bonarka City Center, Kraków - picture by courtesy of TriGranit Management Corporation
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IRELAND 20 Merrion Road, Dublin 4 Tel.: +353 1 66 11 233 Fax: +353 1 67 89 981 ITALY Via Carlo Bo, 11 20143 Milan Tel.: +39 02 58 33 141 Fax: +39 02 3706 9209 JERSEY 3 Floor, Dialogue House 2 - 6 Anley Street St Helier, Jersey JE4 8RD Tel.: +44 (0)1 534 629 001 Fax: +44 (0)1 534 629 011 LUXEMBOURG Axento Building Avenue J.F. Kennedy 44 1855 Luxembourg Tel.: +352 34 94 84 Fax: +352 34 94 73 Investment Management Tel.: +352 26 26 06 06 Fax: +352 26 26 06 26 NETHERLANDS Antonio Vivaldistraat 54 1083 HP Amsterdam Tel.: +31 20 305 97 20 POLAND Al. Jana Pawła II 25 00-854 Warsaw Tel.: +48 22 653 44 00 Fax: +48 22 653 44 01
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