GALLUP WORLD POLL And Migration November 2007 Gerver Torres
The World Poll
Annually polling 95% of the Earth's adult population Conducted in 130 countries and territories Largest available independent source of key world data Same core questions asked across nations and over time Rigorous measurement methodology Nationally representative data includes both urban and rural areas Samples of at least 1,000 adults per country
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To know how we are doing…
Gallup has created eight indexes to better understand how the world fares on key subjective aspects of success…
Leadership Law & Order Food & Shelter Work Economy Health Wellbeing Citizen engagement
Working on some others, including a migration index
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And a monitor for quick, easy access to data
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Subjective Well-being is a Major Theme Limitations of traditional indicators: “Quality of life—human happiness—is determined by many other things than physical goods and services. Even the alternative economic measures of standard of living and discretionary income do not take these factors into account” Wilkipedia That conclusion has led to the creation of alternative indicators:
Human Development Index (HDI) Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI) Gross National Happiness (GNH)
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A key question in the wellbeing index “Please imagine a ladder with steps numbered from 0 at the bottom to 10 at the top. Suppose we say that the top of the ladder represents the best possible life for you and the bottom of the ladder represents the worst possible life for you. On which step of the ladder do you feel you personally stand at the present time?”
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Good News
People around the world are faring well.
They are doing better than 5 years ago.
They expect to do even better in the future.
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Well-being Yesterday, Today, Tomorrow 5+
Today
5Region
Mean
St D
Region
Mean
St D
Region
Mean
St D
Lat America
5.70
2.72
Lat America
6.29
2.38
Lat America
7.90
2.49
Africa
4.08
2.21
Africa
4.47
2.02
Africa
6.61
2.54
Asia
4.17
2.20
Asia
5.02
2.01
Asia
6.64
2.22
Europe
5.77
2.24
Europe
6.01
2.18
Europe
6.61
2.55
G8
6.12
2.27
G8
6.68
1.96
G8
7.33
2.34
World
4.72
2.40
World
5.37
2.18
World
6.85
2.35
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Of course, there is high variability…in general satisfaction
Satisfied Nations Dissatisfied Nations Denmark 8.02 Finland 7.67 Switzerland 7.47 Netherlands 7.46
Cambodia Chad Benin Togo
3.57 3.43 3.33 3.20
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And high variability regarding specific issues… Percentages
Gone Hungry (Switzerland – Chad)
.01
75
Count on someone to help (United Kingdom-Togo)
98
44
Have a health problem (UAE – Moldova)
12
43
Feel safe walking alone (UAE – Chad)
95
24
10
High variability Percentage
Treated with respect (Portugal – Nepal) Sadness (Armenia – Myanmar) Depression (Ethiopia – Mauritania) Boredom (Morocco – Netherland) More days like yesterday (Kuwait – Georgia)
97
35
41
.04
50
.02
50
.07
86
34
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GDP Seems to Explain a Lot at country level
Log GDP per capita and the ladder:
r = .83
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Questions on Migration There are 16 direct questions on migration in the World Poll:
Ideally, if you had the opportunity, would you like to move permanently to another country, or would you prefer to continue living in this country? To which country would you like to move? (Open ended and code) Have any members of your household, aged 15 to 60, gone to live in a foreign country permanently or temporarily in the past five years? For the person who went most recently, what was the highest level of his/her education? In which country does/did he/she live? Does this household receive monetary aid or remittances from relatives living outside of the country on a regular basis?
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Questions on Migration
Approximately, how much money in [local currency] does this household receive from relatives living abroad per month? If for some reason your household stopped receiving these remittances, what would it prevent you or your family from doing? Do you personally know of someone who is planning to move out of [country] in the next 12 months, or not? Do you personally know of someone who was living outside of [country] and returned in the past 12 months, or not? Do you have relatives or friends who are living in another country whom you can count on to help you when you need them, or not? Were you born in this country, [country], or not?
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Questions on Migration
Do you have relatives or friends who are living in another country whom you can count on to help you when you need them, or not? In which country, or countries, do they live? In the next 12 months, are you likely or unlikely to move away from the city or area where you live? Is the city or area where you live a good place or not a good place to live for immigrants?
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Questions in the Works
What is the single most important reason why you would like to move to another country? What would need to happen for you to call off your move/ stay in your country? If your country stopped receiving family remittances what would it prevent you from doing or buying? When you think about your adaptation to the country where you would like to move, what does your future life look like? Would you say it will be very hard, somewhat hard or not hard at all for you to adapt to life in that country?
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Countries with High Desire to migrate (40%-60%) Ideally, if you had the opportunity, would you like to move permanently to another country, or would you prefer to continue living in this country? (% would move)
60%
60%
58%
58% 58%
56% 56%
54% 51%
50%
46%
45% 44%
40%
42% 42%
41% 41% 41% 40%
30% 20% 10% 0%
r l a a a ic e da ri a on ria pi bl w ga do an an e e o u b e a y i ro h an b g a v p n i i h u e l g G b L a N G U Et Re Se m am lS n Zi C E a c i in om D
a sh ru gu de Pe a r a a gl ic an N B
B
e iz el B
a in uk
so Fa
i aw l a M
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Countries with Medium Desire to Migrate (20%-39%) Ideally, if you had the opportunity, would you like to move permanently to another country, or would you prefer to continue living in this country? (% would move)
40%
39%
35% 30% 25% 20%
20% 15% 10% 5%
Ita ly Uk rai n Co e sta Ric a Ec ua do r Be nin Eg yp t Vie tna m Ky rgy zta n Po lan d Ro ma nia Za mb ia Lit hu an ia Arg en tin a Me xi c o Pa na ma Sr i La nk a Be lgi um De nm ark Isr ae l
So uth Iran Ko rea Ge or g ia Hu ng ary Gu ate ma la Pa r ag ua y
Co lom bia Ho nd ura s Ch ile Pa l es ti n e Ke ny a Bo livi a Le ba no n
0%
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Countries with Low Desire to Migrate (1%-19%) Ideally, if you had the opportunity, would you like to move permanently to another country, or would you prefer to continue living in this country? (% would move)
20%
19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19%
18%
18% 18% 18%
16%
15% 14%
14%
13% 13%
12%
11% 10%
10%
9% 8% 8% 8%
8%
7% 7%
6% 4%
4% 2%
1% UK iA rab ia Sa ud
Sp ain
str alia Ind on esi a Th a il and So uth Af ric a
Au
Ind ia
Ru ssi Ne a wZ ae lan d Ge rm an y Ve ne z ue la Tu r ke Ch y zeq ue Re p Ma la s ia
Gr eec e
Br az i l
ia
La tvi a Pa k is ta n Se wd en Ta nza nia
Es ton
Uru
gu ay
0%
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Latin Americans Who Wish to Migrate are Slightly Less Satisfied with Their Lives Than Those Who Wish to Stay “Imagine a ladder in which “0” is the worst possible life for you and 10 is the best possible life for you. Where do you stand today”?
45%
42%
40%
37%
35%
38%
Would Move Would not Move
34%
30% 25% 20% 15%
15%
12%
9%
10%
12%
5% 0% 0 to 3
4 to 6
7 to 9
Best Possible Life (10)
:“Ideally, if you had the opportunity, would you like to move permanently to another country, or would you prefer to continue living in this country?”
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Migration in Latin America %
MM
24
144
Are planning to migrate
12%
72
Know someone with a plan to migrate
22%
132
Member of household migrated in past 5 yrs
9%
54
Household receives remittances
21%
31.5
Would migrate if they could
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Desire to Migrate in Latin America Ideally, if you had the opportunity, would you like to move permanently to another country, or would you prefer to continue living in this country? (% would move)
60%
56% 51%
50%
42% 41%
40%
39%
36% 35% 31%
30%
Avg.
25% 25% 24% 24% 21% 21% 21%
20%
Region
19% 18% 13%
24%
10%
la
Ve ne z ue
Bra z il
gu ay Uru
Pa na ma
Me xi c o
liv ia Gu ate ma la Pa r ag ua y Co sta Ric a Ec ua do r Ar ge nti na
Bo
ile Ch
ras nd u Ho
Nic ar a gu a Co lom bia
Pe ru
r alv ad o
El S
Do
mi nic an R
ep u
blic
0%
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Not all are Heading North Ideally, if you had the opportunity, would you like to move permanently to another country, or would you prefer to continue living in this country? Which country would you like to move to? (% of those who would migrate if they could who say they would move to the U.S)
60%
58% 55%
52% 52%
50%
51%
48% 46% 46% 43%
Avg.
39%
40%
Region
30%
26% 25%
36% 19% 18%
20%
15% 12%
10%
en tin a Arg
gu ay Uru
livi a Bo
ile Ch
ia lom b Co
Pe ru
Br az i l
ras nd u Ho
Pa na ma
ala Gu ate m
Me xi c o
Ec ua do min r ica nR ep ub lic Do
sta Ric a Co
El S
alv ad o
r Nic ar a gu a
0%
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Central America: A dramatic case % Workers who Plan to Migrate in the Next 12 Months by Occupation 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%
Skilled Workers/ Clerical/ Sales/ Construction/ Machinery Service Worker Farming workers Operaries
Professionals/ Managers
Business Owners
Costa Rica
6%
8%
7%
13%
18%
El Salvador
25%
19%
29%
15%
8%
Guatemala
5%
5%
17%
12%
23%
Honduras
15%
19%
33%
23%
14%
Nicaragua
18%
12%
22%
7%
13%
24 Note: figures only represent respondents who indicated they have a job
Latin America’s Youth on the Go Ideally, if you had the opportunity, would you like to move permanently to another country, or would you prefer to continue living in this country? (% would move by age group)
40%
37%
35% 30%
27%
25%
20%
20% 12%
15% 10% 5% 0% 15-20
21-35
36-54
55+
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Latin Americans Who Wish to Migrate Seek Quality Jobs as Opposed to “Just Jobs” Ideally, if you had the opportunity, would you like to move permanently to another country, or would you prefer to continue living in this country? (% would move by Job Status and Job Satisfaction) Do you currently have a job?
Are you satisfied with your job?
32% 26% 23%
Have a Job
21%
Not Have a Job
Satisfied with Job
Not Satisfied with Job
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Latin Americans Who Wish to Migrate Seek Greater Personal Freedoms Ideally, if you had the opportunity, would you like to move permanently to another country, or would you prefer to continue living in this country? (% would move by Satisfaction with Country’s Freedom)
34%
35% 30% 25%
20%
20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Satisfied
Dissatisfied
Question wording: “In this country, are you satisfied with your freedom to choose what to do with your life?
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Latin Americans Who Wish to migrate Are More Likely to Lack Confidence in their Country’s Government or Economy Ideally, if you had the opportunity, would you like to move permanently to another country, or would you prefer to continue living in this country? (% would move by Experience of Crime) Do you have confidence in the national government?
Would you say the current economic conditions are good, or not?
27% 20%
Have Confidence
27% 20%
Not Have Confidence
Good
Not Good
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Latin Americans Who Wish to Migrate are More Likely to Say They Have a Talent Ideally, if you had the opportunity, would you like to move permanently to another country, or would you prefer to continue living in this country? (% Would Move by Belief of Having a Talent)
40% 35%
30%
30% 25%
21%
20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Say they don't have a talent
Say they have a talent
Question wording: “Do you have a talent or something you can do better than most people you know?”
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Latin Americans Who Wish to Migrate are More Likely to Feel Politically Discriminated in Their Countries of Origin Ideally, if you had the opportunity, would you like to move permanently to another country, or would you prefer to continue living in this country? (% would move by Experience of Political Discrimination)
31%
35% 30% 25%
23%
20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Not Feel Politically Discriminated
Feel Politically Discriminated
Question wording: In the past 12 months, have you or any relative of yours been denied an opportunity to get ahead because of your political ideas?
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For Latin Americans Migration is a “Win, Win” Deal When you think of the people who go to live in other countries, do you consider them to be a big problem or a big help for…. (% that think of migrants as problem/ help)
62% 51%
50%
Big Problem Big Help 26%
24% 18%
For the sending country
For their families
For the receiving countries
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Gallup Organization
Gerver Torres Managing Partner Gallup Organization Washington D.C
[email protected] Phones: 202-7153030 1-877-242-5587 32
