NBTC NTCTHAILAND THAILAND
Future Telecommunications in Thailand
Col. Dr.Natee Sukonrat NTC acting NBTC Commissioner June 14, 2011 1
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Agenda
Telecoms sector role in Thai economy
Character of Thai telecoms sector
Convergent regulator
Telecoms Master Plan
3G/4G Updated in Thailand
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Telecoms sector plays vital role in Thais economic
Telecoms service is necessary services
Consumption in Telecoms contributes 0.12% of GDPs
In(GDP) = 12.65 + 0.12ln(Private Telecoms expenditure)
4.16 % of Total expenditure spend in telecoms sector
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Thais consume Telecoms service more Ratio of Telecommunications Expenditure to Total Annual Private Consumption Expenditure 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0
4.16
1.89
Growth rate 1993-2009 - Private consumption expenditure: 63.21% - Post&Telecom expenditure: 268.10%
Average growth per year - Private consumption expenditure: 3.22% - Post&Telecom expenditure: 9.02% Source: NESDB
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Opportunity, Market and Growing Telecoms Sector
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Mandatory Infrastructure couple with 93% coverage
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Fixed line market status Population Penetration
Household Penetration
45% 38.09%
40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15%
10.35%
10% 5% 0% 2003
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2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
1Q02 2Q02 3Q02 4Q02 1Q03 2Q03 3Q03 4Q03 1Q04 2Q04 3Q04 4Q04 1Q05 2Q05 3Q05 4Q05 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10
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Mobile Penetration has Increased Markedly Pre-Paid
100%
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Post-Paid
120%
10.90%
96.15%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
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Broadband Market also Expand Rapidly 3,000,000
2,825,188
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
1Q03 2Q03 3Q03 4Q03 1Q04 2Q04 3Q04 4Q04 1Q05 2Q05 3Q05 4Q05 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10
-
-Broadband subscriber @ 2010: 2.8 million subscribers -Growth rate year on year: 23% - Population penetration: 4.22% - Household penetration: 15.54% 9
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Huge opportunity in Broadband Market 8,000,000
6,835,146 7,000,000
6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000
2,825,188
3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 -
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Broadband Subscribers
Fixed Subscribers
Broadband /Fixed line 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%
41.33% 32.58% 24.97% 18.02% 13.00% 8.14% 2.53% 0.18%
2003
10
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
- Broadband/ Fixed line: 41.33 % - 58.67% of Fixed line waiting for new investment - 4 million number is a room for xDSL investment - Local loop unbundling have been announce since November 2010
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Well facilities for the future Domestic Bandwidth
International Bandwidth
800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000
200,000 100,000
1Q00 2Q00 3Q00 4Q00 1Q01 2Q01 3Q01 4Q01 1Q02 2Q02 3Q02 4Q02 1Q03 2Q03 3Q03 4Q03 1Q04 2Q04 3Q04 4Q04 1Q05 2Q05 3Q05 4Q05 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10
0
Rapid Growth in one quarter during 3Q09 – 4Q09 - NIX: 127% - IIG: 50% 11
Current bandwidth - NIX: 721 Gbps - IIG: 158 Gbps
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Non-voice: the new revenue stream 18% 16%
15.25%
14%
12% 10% 8%
10.86%
Non-voice revenue 224 m$
Non-voice revenue 152 m$
6% 4%
Voice revenue 1,009 m$
Voice revenue 1,012 m$
2% 0% 1Q08
2Q08
3Q08
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09
1Q10
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
- Non-voice revenue grew 22% in one year (2009 to 2010) - According to our research, non-voice service trend to be necessary service 12
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Thais ready to be information society 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991
22,000,000 18,300,000 16,100,000 13,416,000
-
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
- Almost 35% of Thais is able to access to internet - During 2000-2010, average internet user growth per year: 30% - Recent year internet user growth: 20% 13
25,000,000
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Thais ready to be information society
Recently, Thais Facebook account is almost 9.4 million accounts (Ref. www.socialbakers.com)
Mobile internet user is almost 12 million users in recent year
Skyrocket growth in smart phones (230% in last year)
Thais Tweeter account is 450,000 users, 1 millions messages as tweeted in Thai language daily (Bangkok post, 5 May 2011)
Mobile non-voice revenue is very high growth and trend to be necessary service in near future
Broadband is one of Thai Government agenda 14
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Toward Convergent Regulator
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Toward convergent regulator Broadcast Regulator
NTC
Joint committee
Telecoms Regulator
NBC
NBTC (Convergent Regulator)
Spectrum Management
- NBC has not been establish since 2000 - NTC has been establish since 2004 - No new spectrum assignment for 10 years - Broadcasting sector has not had independent regulator 16
- All in one organization - Spectrum Management - Telecoms Regulator - Broadcasting Regulator
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Toward convergent regulator
NBTC Act (2010) has enforced since December 2010
There will be 11 commissioners
1 Chairman
5 Telecoms sector commissioners
5 Broadcasting sector commissioners
The commissioners selection process will start on March 2011
New commissioners expected to be selected by June 2011 17
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Toward convergent regulator Chairman NBTC Vice Chairman Telecoms
Telecoms commissioner
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Telecoms commissioner
Telecoms commissioner
Vice Chairman Broadcasting
Telecoms commissioner
Broadcasting commissioner
Broadcasting commissioner
Broadcasting commissioner
Broadcasting commissioner
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Master plan
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Master plan Spectrum Master plan Telecoms Master plan
Broadcasting Master plan
Foster fair competition Reduce barrier to entry
Public interest 20
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Spectrum Master Plan Table of Frequency Allocation Refarming Digital Switchover (Digital Dividend)
Frequency Coordination & Cooperation
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Telecoms Master Plan
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Telecoms Master Plan is in drafting process
Public participation is mandated for developing master plan
The draft master plan will be deliver to new NBTC for approving.
The draft Telecommunication Master Plan have four goals
Expansion of Broadband Infrastructure
Expansion of Basic telecommunication service
Providing affordable price in Telecommunication service
Strengthen consumer protection
NTC THAILAND
3G/4G Updated in Thailand
3G/4G Spectrum Auction will be auctioned after the completion of NBTC Commissioner selection and approval of Spectrum Master Plan/Telecoms Master Plan. Approved in-band migration for 800MHz, 900MHz and 1800MHz.
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Q&A Welcome to THAILAND
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