FP Charteris Strategic Fixed Income Fund An innovative Fixed Income Strategy
September 2016
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Designed for a period of rising interest rates
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Fund denominated in Sterling but can Invest up to 30% in US Dollar & Euro denominated Bonds
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Use of Giltsoft – A State of the Art Gilt Proprietary Analysis Tool
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Top Priority - Capital preservation in a market with a lot of asymmetric risk
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All assets are liquid and tradable in the secondary market.
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Yield on Portfolio rises as Interest Rates increase plus potential capital gains on Perp FRN’s offset potential losses on Gilts
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Still aims to provide a competitive yield to existing conventional Bond Funds
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1st Fund Manager – Top of UK Gilt IMA Sector 2007, 2009 & 2013
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2nd Manager – Former Head Trader Standard & Chartered Bank FRN book
For professional intermediaries only
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20% in High Yielding Blue Chip Equities such as National Grid, Centrica etc Average Yield circa 5% (with expected dividend increases every year on top)
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Approx. 40% in A i Floating Fl ti rate t notes t split lit b between t R Redeemable d bl FRN’ FRN’s ((which hi h are iin Sterling) & Perpetual FRN’s – Split between Sterling and US Dollar FRN’s
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Approx. 40% in short dated UK Gilts :- Longer dated stocks may be acquired if yields rise to more historical average levels – If Interest rates rise to higher levels the percentage in Gilts may increase to a maximum of 80% of the portfolio.
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Long only Fund suitable for SIPPs, SSAS, ISAs & JISAs
For professional intermediaries only
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US Treasuries and UK Gilt Yields are around their lowest for 200+ years
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The average yield for a 10 Year UK Gilt over the last 300 years is y 0.6% (approx) ( pp ) between 3%-5% - currently (as at
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31st August ‘16) 16)
The average yield for a 50 Year (Irredeemable) Gilt is between 4%-6% - currently 1% st
(as at 31 August ‘16)
For professional intermediaries only
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I N V EST M EN T P R O C E S S
Aims
Key Points & Fundamentals Key Points & Fundamentals
Technical analysis: writing options in practice
Risk management
Platforms
For professional intermediaries only
{Source: US Treasury *as at 31st Dec 2013 – Annual Data}
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Yi ld Yield
Year For professional intermediaries only
{Source: DMO / Bank of England}
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{Source: Bloomberg)
Example p 1 – UKT 1 ¾ % 2018 ((1-2 Year UK Gilt)) Price
Capital Loss (%)
Current GRY
0.10%
102.00
n/a
To Yield
2.9%
98.6
‐3.3%
To Yield
3%
96.8
‐5.0%
To Yield
4%
95.07
‐6.7%
To Yield
5%
93.35
‐8.4%
Price
Capital Loss (%)
Example 2 – UKT 1 ½ 2026 (10 Year UK Gilt) Current GRY Current GRY
0 8% 0.8%
107 6 107.6
To Yield
2%
95.5
‐11.2%
To Yield
3%
87.2
‐19%
To Yield
4%
79.7
‐25%
To Yield
5%
73.0
‐32%
Price
Capital Loss (%)
Example 3 – UKT 3 ½ 2068 (50 Year UK Gilt) Current GRY
1.15%
191.0
To Yield
2%
148.2
‐22%
To Yield
3%
113.1
‐40%
To Yield
4%
89.1
‐53%
To Yield
5%
72.3
‐62%
For professional intermediaries only
{Source: Bloomberg – Prices correct as at 31st August 2016
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{Source: Bloomberg)
% in each sector
Security
% Of the Fund
Current Yield
Future Yield & Future Prices
Nationall Grid d
5%
4%
Income Increases as Dividend Increases d d Price should also rise
Centrica
5%
5.1%
Income Increases as Dividend Increases Price should also rise
20%
40%
SSE
5%
5.8%
Income Increases as Dividend Increases Price should also rise
United Utilities
5%
4%
Income Increases as Dividend Increases Price should also rise
UKT 1 ¾ % 2017
13%
0.10%
UKT 2 ¼ % 2018
13%
0.13%
UKT 1 ¾ % 2019
13%
0.13%
For professional intermediaries only
Average Yield Static g 0.12% ‐ Prices WILL fall as Yield Rise
(as at 31st August ‘16)
Equity Average Yield 4.7%
UK Gilt A Average Yield 0.12%
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{Source: Bloomberg)
% in each sector
40%
Security
% Of the Fund
Current Yield
Future Yield & Future Prices
0.56%
Yield Increases as Interest Rates Rise Price should also Rise
KFW Redeemable FRN est. price 100
5%
Nationwide Redeemable FRN est price 100 4 est. price 100.4
5%
0.99%
Yield Increases as Interest Rates Rise Price should also Rise should also Rise
EIB Redeemable FRN est. price 100.38
5%
0.6%
Yield Increases as Interest Rates Rise Price should also Rise
Barclays B l P Perpetual FRN t l FRN est. price 70.5
5%
2 0% 2.0%
Yield Increases as Interest Rates Rise Yi ld I I t t R t Ri Price should also Rise
ANZ Perpetual FRN est. price 56
5%
1.7%
Yield Increases as Interest Rates Rise Price should also Rise
Lloyds Bank Perpetual FRN est. price 65
5%
2.0%
Yield Increases as Interest Rates Rise Price should also Rise
HSBC Perpetual FRN est. price 60
5%
1.6%
Yield Increases as Interest Rates Rise Price should also Rise
Total Portfolio Yield
For professional intermediaries only
Redeemable FRN Average Yield 0.7%
Perpetual FRN Average Yield 1.8%
1.5% approx (entire portfolio)
(as at 31st August ‘16)
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A Dynamic real-time model What Giltsoft does is allow the Yield Curve to be used dynamically, permitting users to input th i own estimates their ti t off medium-term di t changes h tto its it level l l and d shape h and d th thus make k fforecasts t of future bond market performance, thereby assisting in the active management of government bond portfolios.
For professional intermediaries only
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Equities are at multi-decade cheapness relative to both g conventional and Index Linked gilts
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(See charts overleaf)
Conclusion Due to their multi-decade relative cheapness and existing high yyields,, Blue Chip p Equities q should in theory y be more immune to rising interest rates than Gilts
For professional intermediaries only
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(as at 30 June ‘16)
Source: Giltsoft
Equities v Conventional Gilts: GY/DY 3.5
Equities q Expensive
3
2.5
2
Relative to Gilts 1.5
1
0.5
Equities Cheap
0 31/12/1980
31/12/1984
31/12/1988
31/12/1992
For professional intermediaries only
31/12/1996
31/12/2000
31/12/2004
31/12/2008
31/12/2012
31/12/2016
31/12/2020
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(as at 30 June ‘16)
Source: Giltsoft
Equities v IndexLinked: RY/DY 1.4
Equities q Expensive
1.3 1.2 1.1 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5
Relative to Index Linked Gilts
0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 -0 1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 31/12/1980
31/12/1984
31/12/1988
31/12/1992
-0.5
For professional intermediaries only
31/12/1996
31/12/2000
31/12/2004
31/12/2008
31/12/2012
31/12/2016
31/12/2020
Equities Cheap 13
Ian Ian Williams Williams – Chartered Chartered FCSI FCSI Ian has spent the past 35 years trading equities, commodities and G7 government bonds as a specialist stockbroker, Gilt Market Maker, Gilt proprietary trader and Gilt Fund Manager He proprietary trader and Gilt Fund Manager. He was a member of the London Stock Exchange for many years before joining Chase Manhattan Bank (now JP Morgan). Ian Williams awarded Trustnet Alpha Manager in 2011 & accomplished a CityWire A rating in 2009, Manager in 2011 & accomplished a CityWire A rating in 2009 2010 & 2011. Gilt Fund managed by Ian was top of the IMA UK Gilt sector in calendar years 2007, 2009 & 2013.
Terry Farrow – Chartered MCSI, A.C.I.B. APFS C.F.P. Terry has over 40 years experience in the investment markets having worked for Barclays Bank and formerly ran the Standard Chartered floating rate book for many years. Terry became an IFA in 1990. Terry is qualified at Level K10 Retirement options – covering all types of pension advice. Terry is also qualified both to G60 and G70 level to cover both Pension advice and Investment Management. There are only a handful of Investment professionals in the UK that hold the G70 qualification. For professional intermediaries only
P i k Philli Patrick Phillips During his respected and distinguished city career, Patrick Phillips has worked for a number of leading financial institutions including Phillips & Drew (now UBS Warburg), James Capel (now ( ) ( HSBC), de Zoete & Bevan, now Barclays Capital) and Merrill Lynch. In 1986 he was elected Deputy Chairman of the Gilt‐Edged Market Makers Association (GEMMA) and subsequently served as a member of the Council of the London Stock Exchange and Chairman of its Gilt‐Edged Rules Committee. Pat has gone on to develop one of the most technically advanced yield curve analytics models in the world called Giltsoft and this is used in conjunction with the Elite Charteris Strategic Bond Fund Nick Taylor – Chartered FCSI, Head of Research Nick Taylor has 38 years of international y y Investment management experience, gained at Morgan Grenfell, Invesco, and was Managing Director at Cigna International Investment Advisors and Matheson Investment Advisors and Matheson Investment Management. An award‐winning manager, Nicholas has run equity portfolios for a broad range of investors, including institutional pension funds, such as the Cadbury Schweppes Pension Fund alongside running several million pounds of private Pension Fund alongside running several million pounds of private client portfolios and investment trusts. 14
IMA Sector
: IMA UK STRAGEIC BOND SECTOR
Bloomberg Ticker Code
: FPCSFAI LN EQUITY (Inst Inc) : FPCSFAA LN EQUITY (Inst Acc)
ISIN number
: GB00BV8VPL71 (Inst Inc) : GB00BV8VPK64 (Inst Acc)
SEDOL S O number u be
: BV8VPK6 8 6 ((Inst st Inc) c) : BV8VPL7 (Inst Acc)
CUSTODIAN
: Citibank
Authorised Corporate Director {ACD} and Registrar:
: Host Capital (HC)
Auditor
: GRANT THORNTON UK LLP : INSTITUTIONAL INC AMC 1% : INSTITUTIONAL ACC AMC 1%
For professional intermediaries only
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I N V EST M EN T P R O C E S S
Aims
Key Points & Fundamentals
Technical analysis: writing options in practice
Risk management
Platforms
For professional intermediaries only
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For all enquiries Ian Williams E.
[email protected] T. +44 (0)20 7220 9780
London Office
Exeter Office
8-9 Lovat Lane, London, EC3R 8DW T: +44 (0) 20 7220 9780 Fax: +44 (0)20 7929 6925
Tel: +44 ((0)1392 ) 88 11 00
Find us across Social Media Twitter. @charteris_ YouTube: YT.com/user/charteristreasuryPM YT com/user/charteristreasuryPM Facebook: facebook.com/CharterisTreasuryPM/ LinkedIN: linkedin.com/company/charteris-treasuryportfolio-management-ltd portfolio management ltd
Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority www.charteris.co.uk For professional intermediaries only
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This presentation is issued by Charteris Treasury Portfolio Management Ltd which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority •
Past performance is not a guide to future performance and investors may not get back the full amount invested
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The price of shares and any income from them may fall as well as rise
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On redemption of holdings investors may not receive back the full amount invested. Management and other fees may reduce the capital invested
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The information provided does not constitute advice or a personal recommendation for which the duty of suitability would be owed by us and you should seek your own advice as to the suitability of any investment matter mentioned here
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Professional advisers should be aware that this document is intended for their use only and this document is not to be shown or given to any retail investors
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presentation is made on the basis of our current understanding g of United Kingdom g Tax The p laws, which may be subject to change in the future
For professional intermediaries only
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