fixed income strategy fixed income strategy | 21 October 2014

This reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group

Weathering volatility

Contents

Volatility and falling US Treasury yields were reflective of concerns over the outlook for the US economy, though the market reaction was somewhat excessive, in our opinion. We believe the decline in yields has as much to do with 1) lower yields in Europe relative to the US, 2) rising surpluses in Asia looking for a home, and 3) stop-losses being triggered for large investors. Our central scenario is that US bond yields will rise, but the risks of a delay in the rate hike cycle are increasing. However, our key views remain unchanged. We continue to prefer corporate credit over government bonds. Within corporates, we remain neutral Asian and Middle Eastern bonds relative to other regions, and believe a selective approach remains key. We believe it is attractive to selectively look for subordinated debt, keep maturity profiles moderate, focusing on bonds with a high probability of being called. Local currency bonds in Asia remain our top pick, particularly in China and India. CNY and CNH bonds continued to deliver through the recent bout of volatility, generating positive absolute returns over a period when both global bonds and equities lost value. In India, we are attracted by the high yields on offer, gradually increasing room for policy easing (given the recent softening in inflation) and reduced risks to the currency (due to lower oil prices). Our preference for Emerging Market High Yield sovereign bonds remains unchanged. Spreads are now slightly wider than their longterm median, underscoring our view that the asset class continues to offer value in today’s continued low-yield environment. See the Global Market Outlook for more details on allocations to fixed income within a diversified portfolio and our preferred fixed income asset classes. ADD AVIC International 4.8% 04/2017 (CNH)

Weathering volatility

1

Investment Strategy

2

USD issues

3

SGD issues

5

CNH issues

6

GBP issues

7

Bond indices begin rebounding following recent weakness BarCap total return indices (June 2014=100) 106

104

102

100

98

96

94 Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Global Aggregate EM USD Bonds CNY bonds (USD)

Sep-14

Oct-14

Global High Yield EM Local Currency Bonds

Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered

Manpreet Gill Head, FICC Investment Strategy

REMOVE Export Import Bank of Korea 3.25% 07/2015 (CNH)

Currency

Credit Rating (Moody’s/S&P/Fitch)

Spread (bps)

YTW (%)

Bank Rakyat 2.95% 03/2018

USD

Baa3/BB+/BBB-

247

3.22

Emirates NBD 6.375% Perpetual Noble Group 6.0% Perpetual

XS0901040476

USD USD

NR/NR/NR NR/NR/NR

494

6.32

525

6.63

XS1111114135 XS1079076029

Canara Bank 5.25% 10/2018

USD

Baa3/NR/BBB-

229

3.05

XS0982652520

Kuwait Projects (KIPCO) 4.8% 02/2019

USD

Baa3/BBB-/NR

278

3.53

XS1026105806

ADIB Capital Invest 1 LT 6.375% 10/2049

USD

NR/NR/NR

USD

Baa3/BB+/BBB-

5.28 3.27

XS0851081660

Perusahaan Penerbit SBSN Indonesia 6.125% 03/2019

452 189

China Cinda Finance 4% 05/2019

USD

Baa1/BBB+/A

225

3.63

USG2117CAB84

ICICI Bank 3.65% 01/2020

SGD

Baa2/BBB-/NR

215

3.49

XS0875313099

ABN Amro 4.7% 10/2022

SGD

NR/BBB/A-

285

3.20

XS0848055991

United Overseas Bank 4.9% Perpetual

SGD

A3/BB+/BBB

239

3.74

SG57A1994579

TML Holdings 4.25% 05/2018

SGD

NR/NR/NR

293

4.28

SG56E5992953

Global Logistic Properties 5.5% Perpetual Bank of China 3.45% 01/2017

SGD CNH

NR/NR/BBBA1/NR/A

353

3.87

94

3.51

XS0713845195 XS1014678053

Bestgain Real Estate Lyra 4.05% 12/2016

CNH

Baa3/BBB/BBB+

128

3.86

HK0000176583

Value Success International 4.15% 01/2017

CNH

NR/NR/NR

128

3.83

HK0000182953

AVIC International Finance & Investment 4.8% 04/2017

CNH

NR/NR/BBB

139

3.94

HK0000193976

Jaguar Land Rover 8.25% 03/2020

GBP

Ba2/BB/BB-

290

3.56

XS0765386627

Bond

ISIN

US71567RAB24

Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered. Yields and spreads are indicative only

This commentary reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group of Standard Chartered Bank. This is not a research report and has not been produced by a research unit. Important disclosures can be found in the Disclosures Appendix.

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fixed income strategy | 21 October 2014

Investment Strategy We add AVIC International 4.8% 04/2017 (CNH) bond (ISIN: HK0000193976) to our preferred list. AVIC International is a state-owned conglomerate whose main businesses include aviation, trade and logistics, electronics, consumer goods, retail and resources. Its parent, AVIC, is the sole producer of military aircraft and other aviation products for China’s army. We like the bond since it offers an attractive yield of approximately 3.94% for a maturity of less than 2.5 years. We believe that it offers a decent yield pickup over comparable bonds like Bank of Communications 06/2017s (YTM: 3.45%) and Beijing Infrastructure Investment 06/2017s (YTM: 3.70%) It also offers sector diversification into industrials. Its strategic role and significant state ownership offer comfort from a credit point of view. 2. Take Profit on Export Import Bank of Korea 3.25% 07/2015 We take profit on the Export-Import Bank of Korea 3.25% 07/2015 th (CNH) bond, which has been on our preferred list since 25 February 2014. The bonds have returned approximately 2.94% since then. 3. Asian Banks Additional Tier 1 capital issuance The Bank of China issued USD 6.5bn Additional Tier 1 capital preference shares, which are senior only to the ordinary shares. This marked the first instance of an Asian bank issuing contingent convertible capital, with a hard trigger (i.e. the bond would be compulsorily converted to H-Shares if the Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio falls below 5.125%), in the international bond market. We expect to see a substantial amount of supply of similar bonds over the next few months from the other major Chinese banks.

AVIC International Holdings is owned by the central SASAC Ownership structure of the issuer The State Council of the PRC

National Council for Social Security Fund

100%

70%

Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC)

14.3%

62.5%

30%

AVIC CCB Aviation Industry Equity Investment

8.9%

AVIC International Holding Corp (Guarantor) 100%

AVIC International Finance & Investments

Other Subsidiaries

Source: Offering Documents, Standard Chartered

NSN AVICNDQ9JJBE5TS0 – Key issuer metrics In USD billion, unless otherwise stated Revenue

56.2

Profit

0.75

Total assets

113.2

Total borrowings

37.0

Total Debt/EBITDA

7.93x

EBITDA/Interest

4.36x

Debt/Equity

154.1%

As of end-Dec 2013. Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered

China: National residential property sales trend Sales value down 11% YoY in first 8 months of 2014

Property Sales value (RMB tn)

Noble Group stated that China Investment Corp, the sovereignwealth fund of China, reduced its stake from 13.8% to 9.4% as a part of portfolio rebalancing. The group also announced that the sale of 51% stake in its agri-business to the COFCO-led consortium had been completed.

China Construction Bank Corporation

Central SASAC

4. News & updates Moody’s commented in its report on Indonesia that the lower budget deficit and energy-subsidy cut signalled fiscal discipline which it viewed as credit positive. Moody’s further commented that though the steps were modest, they signalled a political shift.

100%

100%

8

100

7

80

6

60

5 40 4

20

YoY (%)

1. Add AVIC International Finance & Inv. 4.8% 04/2017 (CNH)

3 0

2

-20

1 0 Jan-11

-40 Jul-11

Jan-12

Jul-12

Jan-13

Jul-13

Property Sales value (RMB tn) (LHS)

Jan-14

Jul-14

YoY (%) (RHS)

Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered

Canara Bank announced that it had received the Government approval for raising upto INR 850mn in equity capital (85 mm share have face value of INR 10) through Qualified Institutional Placement. Fitch revised its outlook on Jaguar Land Rover to positive (from stable earlier), citing continued strong operational performance. Fitch said that an upgrade could occur in the next 24 months if Jaguar Land Rover continues to maintain profitability. The Chinese property sector has been under scrutiny with Agile Property’s bonds dropping significantly over the last month due to refinancing concerns surrounding the issuer. We remain cautious on the Chinese Property sector and prefer the larger, higher quality developers and those with state-ownership. We remain comfortable with and continue to hold bonds of Bestgain Lyra Ltd in our preferred list, a subsidiary of China Vanke Co., the largest property developer in China. This reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group

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fixed income strategy | 21 October 2014

USD issues Bank Rakyat – Buy 2.95% 03/2018 (ISIN: XS0901040476) Key credit factors

Bond characteristics Credit Rating

Baa3/BB+/BBB-

ROA

3.82%

ROE

29.9%

Currency

USD

Tier 1 Capital

17.3%

Total Assets

USD 51.5bn

Capital Structure

Senior Unsecured

Why we like it

Issue Size

500m

Next Call

n/a

   

Indonesia’s second-largest bank. Majority government-owned. Most profitable Indonesian bank due to micro finance dominance. Amongst strongest-capitalised major Indonesian banks. Asset quality resilient. Key risks: Economic growth weakness, reduction in government ownership.

Emirates NBD – Buy 6.375% Perpetual (ISIN: XS1111114135) Key credit factors

Bond characteristics Credit Rating

NR/NR/NR

ROA

1.11%

ROE

9.17%

Currency

USD

Tier 1 Capital

15.6%

Total Assets

USD 93.1bn

Capital Structure

Subordinated (T1)

Why we like it

Issue Size

500m

Next Call

17-Sep-2020

   

USD 6-year swap rate + 4.237% if not called

Largest bank in the UAE. 56%-owned by Investment Corp. of Dubai. Asset quality likely bottomed. Customer deposits provide close to 80% of funding. 2020 call provision effectively shortens duration on bond, in our opinion. Key risks: Economic growth key to asset quality, risk of no-call.

Noble Group – Buy 6.0% Perpetual (ISIN: XS1079076029) Key credit factors

Bond characteristics Credit Rating

NR/NR/NR

Debt/Equity

127.6

Total debt/EBITDA

4.66x

Currency

USD

ROE

6.91%

EBITDA/Interest

2.46x

Capital Structure

Junior subordinated

Why we like it

Issue Size

400m

Next Call

24-Jun-2019

 One of the largest commodity supply chain managers in Asia.  Strong liquidity relative to outstanding short-term debt.  Stake sale in agriculture business expected to improve credit quality and increase likelihood of bond call being exercised.  Key risks: Commodity price volatility, completion of agri unit stake sale.

USD 5-year swap rate + 4.264% if not called in 2019

Canara Bank – Buy 5.25% 10/2018 (ISIN: XS0982652520) Key credit factors

Bond characteristics Credit Rating

Baa3/NR/BBB-

ROA

0.57%

ROE

9.5%

Currency

USD

Tier 1 Capital

7.39%

Total Assets

USD 83.7bn

Capital Structure

Senior Unsecured

Why we like it

Issue Size

500m

Next Call

n/a

 India’s sixth-largest bank, majority-owned by the Indian government.  Capitalisation only adequate, but government committed to supporting capital raising across the sector. Government ownership remains key to credit outlook.  Attractive spreads likely price in most of these risks.  Key risks: India sovereign rating downgrade, further asset quality deterioration.

Kuwait Projects (KIPCO) – Buy 4.8% 02/2019 (ISIN: XS1026105806) Key credit factors

Bond characteristics Credit Rating

Baa3/BBB-/NR

Debt/Equity

436.5

Total Assets

Currency

USD

ROE

8.15%

Capital Structure

Senior Unsecured

Why we like it

Issue Size

500m

Next Call

n/a

 Holding company with key investments in Burgan Bank, United Gulf Bank, Orbit Showtime and Gulf Insurance Co.  Kuwait’s ruling family main shareholders. Support has increased over time.  Key risks: Any reduction in ruling family support, underlying banks’ asset quality. This reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group

USD 30.6bn

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fixed income strategy | 21 October 2014

USD issues (cont’d) ADIB Capital Invest 1 LT – Buy 6.375% 10/2049 (ISIN: XS0851081660) Key credit factors

Bond characteristics Credit Rating

NR/NR/NR

ROA

1.63%

ROE

12.58%

Currency

USD

Tier 1 Capital

15.3%

Total Assets

USD 28.1bn

Capital Structure

Junior Subordinated (LT2)

Why we like it

Issue Size

1bn

Next Call

10/16/2018

 UAE’s ninth-largest bank, directly and indirectly owned by Abu Dhabi’s ruling family.  History suggests strong implicit support for Abu Dhabi banks from the government.  Higher-than-average non-performing assets, but these have continued to reduce steadily since 2012 and the bank’s capitalisation remains comfortable.  Bond call likely, in our opinion, as reset margin is relatively high after call date.  Key risks: Strength of implicit government support, risk of no-call.

USD 6-year swap rate + 5.393% if not called

Perusahaan Penerbit SBSN Indonesia – Buy 6.125% 03/2019 (ISIN: US71567RAB24) Key credit factors

Bond characteristics Credit Rating

Baa3/BB+/BBB-

Debt/GDP (2013 est.)

24.2%

Fiscal deficit (2013, % GDP)

-2.5%

Currency

USD

Capital Structure

Unsecured

Why we like it

Issue Size

1.5bn

Next Call

n/a

 This is a special purpose vehicle set up by the Republic of Indonesia to issue Sharia-compliant securities (Sukuk Negara).  Indonesian budget deficits remain well-controlled and debt/GDP is low.  The Sukuk debt appears to offer value relative to the country’s non-Sukuk debt. Also, Sukuks have tended to be less volatile than non-Sukuk issues, an observation illustrated by this bond’s outperformance relative to a comparable non-Sukuk Indonesian sovereign bond since June 2014.  Key risks: EM contagion risk, political outlook.

China Cinda Finance – Buy 4.0% 05/2019 (ISIN: USG2117CAB84) Key credit factors

Bond characteristics Credit Rating

Baa1/BBB+/A

RoA

2.8%

ROE

13.8%

Currency

USD

CAR

18.4%

Total Assets

USD 63.4bn

Capital Structure

Senior Unsecured

Why we like it

Issue Size

1bn

Next Call

n/a

 China Cinda Finance is ultimately owned by China Cinda Asset Management Co. Ltd., China’s largest Asset Management Company.  Ministry of Finance holds 68.04% stake in Cinda, but standalone metrics are strong  Given its focus on distressed assets, it may provide a counter-cyclical exposure to China  Key Risks: Substantial slowdown in growth in China. Keepwell Deed.

This reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group

4

fixed income strategy | 21 October 2014

SGD issues ICICI Bank – Buy 3.65% 01/2020 (ISIN: XS0875313099) Key credit factors

Bond characteristics Credit Rating

Baa2/BBB-/NR

ROA

1.55%

ROE

15.21%

Currency

SGD

Tier 1 Capital

13.1%

Total Assets

USD 124.8bn

Capital Structure

Senior Unsecured

Why we like it

Issue Size

225m

Next Call

n/a

   

India’s biggest private sector bank, systemically important. One of India’s best capitalised banks, but credit costs may rise. SGD market attractive way of gaining exposure due to supply risk to USD bonds. Key risks: India sovereign ratings downgrade, asset quality weakness.

ABN Amro Bank – Buy 4.7% 10/2022 (ISIN: XS0848055991) Key credit factors

Bond characteristics Credit Rating

NR/BBB/A-

ROA

0.3%

ROE

8.42%

Currency

SGD

Tier 1 Capital

15.3%

Total Assets

USD 512.9bn

Capital Structure

Subordinated

Why we like it

Issue Size

1.0bn

Next Call

10/25/2017

 The third-largest Dutch Bank by assets and is ultimately fully-owned by the state.  Bond offers value relative to comparables, in our view, given ratings and strong capitalisation, and coupon reset margin is relatively high after the call date.  Bank is likely systemically important to the Dutch banking system.  Key risks: Faster-than-expected privatisation, negative Europe growth surprise.

SGD 5-year swap rate + 3.79% if not called

United Overseas Bank – Buy 4.9% Perpetual (ISIN: SG57A1994579) Key credit factors

Bond characteristics Credit Rating

A3/BB+/BBB

ROA

1.09%

ROE

11.98%

Currency

SGD

Tier 1 Capital

13.9%

Total Assets

USD 225.2bn

Capital Structure

Junior Subordinated (T1)

Why we like it

Issue Size

850m

Next Call

7/23/2018

    

SGD 5-year swap rate + 3.195% if not called

Singapore’s third-largest bank, with 60% of revenues from Singapore. Historically, it has offered stability through a number of business cycles. Capitalisation remains strong and non-performing assets low. Bond call likely, in our view, as coupon reset margin is relatively high after call date. Key risks: Exposure to Singapore property market, risk of no-call.

TML Holdings – Buy 4.25% 05/2018 (ISIN: SG56E5992953) Key credit factors

Bond characteristics Credit Rating

NR/NR/NR

Debt/Equity

92.44

Total debt/EBITDA

1.85x

Currency

SGD

ROE

23.2%

EBITDA/Interest

5.91x

Capital Structure

First Lien

Why we like it

Issue Size

350m

Next Call

n/a

   

TML holdings is a subsidiary of Tata Motors, parent of Jaguar Land Rover. Credit metrics reasonably strong, but debt levels are high. Credit spreads are attractive relative to peers. Key risks: Relatively high debt levels.

Global Logistic Properties – Buy 5.5% Perpetual (ISIN: XS0713845195) Bond characteristics

Key credit factors

Credit Rating

NR/NR/BBB-

Debt/Equity

29.60

Total debt/EBITDA

8.78x

Currency

SGD

ROE

7.47%

EBITDA/Interest

4.3x

Capital Structure

Junior Subordinated

Why we like it

Issue Size

750m

Next Call

04/07/2017 SGD 5-year swap rate

 One of the world’s largest providers of logistics facilities in China and Japan.  Bond call likely, in our view, as coupon reset margin is relatively high after call date.  Key risks: Any unexpected China economic growth weakness, risk of no-call.

+ 4.2% if not called in 2017

This reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group

5

fixed income strategy | 21 October 2014

CNH issues Bank of China – Buy 3.45% 01/2017 (ISIN: XS1014678053) Key credit factors

Bond characteristics Credit Rating

A1/NR/A

ROA

1.15%

ROE

14.37%

Currency

CNH

Tier 1 Capital

10.1%

Total Assets

USD 2,493bn

Capital Structure

Senior Unsecured

Why we like it

Issue Size

2.5bn

Next Call

n/a

 China’s fourth-largest bank. Most international, diversified among peers.  Basel Committee classified Bank of China as ‘globally systemically important’.  Rise in non-performing loans, fall in profits are key risks, but history of capital injections suggests implicit state support remains.  Key risks: Change of implicit state support, deterioration in asset quality.

Bestgain Real Estate Lyra – Buy 4.05% 12/2016 (ISIN: HK0000176583) Key credit factors

Bond characteristics Credit Rating

Baa3/BBB/BBB+

Debt/Equity

118.99

Total debt/EBITDA

3.76x

Currency

CNH

ROE

21.5%

EBITDA/interest

3.70x

Capital Structure

Senior Unsecured

Why we like it

Issue Size

1bn

Next Call

n/a

 Bestgain is a subsidiary of China Vanke, China’s largest property developer.  Delivery record, asset turnover, strong credit & liquidity metrics are key positives.  Positive returns since inception and in Q3 illustrate strengths despite negative Chinese real estate news flow  Spreads attractive for IG-rated developer, in our view.  Key risks: Significant negative shock to China property market.

Value Success International – Buy 4.15% 01/2017 (ISIN: HK0000182953) Key credit factors

Bond characteristics Credit Rating

NR/NR/NR

ROA

0.91%

ROE

16.67%

Currency

CNH

Tier 1 capital

n/a

Total Assets

USD 555.2bn

Capital Structure

Senior Unsecured

Why we like it

Issue Size

850m

Next Call

n/a

 Value Success is a subsidiary of China’s Ping An Insurance.  Recent growth in both life and property & casualty insurance has been strong.  Key risks: Unexpected rise in payouts, unexpected slowing of China growth.

AVIC International Finance & Investment– Buy 4.8% 04/2017 (ISIN: HK0000193976) Bond characteristics

Key credit factors

Credit Rating

NR/NR/BBB

Debt/Equity

154.05

Total debt/EBITDA

7.93x

Currency

CNH

ROE

3.33%

EBITDA/interest

4.36x

Capital Structure

Senior Unsecured

Why we like it

Issue Size

1500m

Next Call

n/a

 AVIC International is a state-owned conglomerate whose main businesses include aviation, trade and logistics, electronics, consumer goods, retail and resources..  Its parent, AVIC, is the sole producer of military aircraft and other aviation products for China’s army.  Attractive yield for maturity of less than 2.5 years.  Key risks: Any change in government ownership/support.

This reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group

6

fixed income strategy | 21 October 2014

GBP issues Jaguar Land Rover – Buy 8.25% 03/2020 (ISIN: XS0765386627) Key credit factors

Bond characteristics Credit Rating

Ba2/BB/BB-

Debt/Equity

66.0

Total debt/EBITDA

0.61x

Currency

GBP

ROE

45.5%

EBITDA/Interest

12.3x

Capital Structure

Senior Unsecured

Why we like it

Issue Size

500m

Next Call

03/15/2016

 Credit metrics reasonably strong and on an improving trend  Parent Tata Motors has less flattering credit metrics, but spreads look reasonably attractive for its credit rating.  Key risks: Relatively high debt levels of parent company.

Callable at 104.125 in 2016

Strategy Team: Steve Brice Chief Investment Strategist Clive McDonnell Head, Equity Investment Strategy Manpreet Gill Head, FICC Investment Strategy Adi Monappa, CFA Head, Asset Allocation & Portfolio Construction Audrey Goh, CFA Investment Strategist Victor Teo, CFA Investment Strategist Tariq Ali, CFA Investment Strategist

This reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group

7

fixed income strategy | 21 October 2014

Disclosure Appendix This document is not research material and it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This document does not necessarily represent the views of every function within the Standard Chartered Bank, particularly those of the Global Research function. Standard Chartered Bank is incorporated in England with limited liability by Royal Charter 1853 Reference Number ZC18. The Principal Office of the Company is situated in England at 1 Basinghall Avenue, London, EC2V 5DD Standard Chartered Bank is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulation Authority. In Dubai International Financial Centre (“DIFC”), the attached material is circulated by Standard Chartered Bank DIFC on behalf of the product and/or Issuer. Standard Chartered Bank DIFC is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA) and is authorised to provide financial products and services to persons who meet the qualifying criteria of a Professional Client under the DFSA rules. The protection and compensation rights that may generally be available to retail customers in the DIFC or other jurisdictions will not be afforded to Professional Clients in the DIFC. Banking activities may be carried out internationally by different Standard Chartered Bank branches, subsidiaries and affiliates (collectively “SCB”) according to local regulatory requirements. With respect to any jurisdiction in which there is a SCB entity, this document is distributed in such jurisdiction by, and is attributable to, such local SCB entity. Recipients in any jurisdiction should contact the local SCB entity in relation to any matters arising from, or in connection with, this document. Not all products and services are provided by all SCB entities. This document is being distributed for general information only and it does not constitute an offer, recommendation, solicitation to enter into any transaction or adopt any hedging, trading or investment strategy, in relation to any securities or other financial instruments. This document is for general evaluation only, it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, particular needs of any particular person or class of persons and it has not been prepared for any particular person or class of persons. Opinions, projections and estimates are solely those of SCB at the date of this document and subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results and no representation or warranty is made regarding future performance. Any forecast contained herein as to likely future movements in rates or prices or likely future events or occurrences constitutes an opinion only and is not indicative of actual future movements in rates or prices or actual future events or occurrences (as the case may be). This document has not and will not be registered as a prospectus in any jurisdiction and it is not authorised by any regulatory authority under any regulations. SCB makes no representation or warranty of any kind, express, implied or statutory regarding, but not limited to, the accuracy of this document or the completeness of any information contained or referred to in this document. This document is distributed on the express understanding that, whilst the information in it is believed to be reliable, it has not been independently verified by us. SCB accepts no liability and will not be liable for any loss or damage arising directly or indirectly (including special, incidental or consequential loss or damage) from your use of this document, howsoever arising, and including any loss, damage or expense arising from, but not limited to, any defect, error, imperfection, fault, mistake or inaccuracy with this document, its contents or associated services, or due to any unavailability of the document or any part thereof or any contents. SCB, and/or a connected company, may at any time, to the extent permitted by applicable law and/or regulation, be long or short any securities, currencies or financial instruments referred to on this document or have a material interest in any such securities or related investment, or may be the only market maker in relation to such investments, or provide, or have provided advice, investment banking or other services, to issuers of such investments. Accordingly, SCB, its affiliates and/or subsidiaries may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this document. This document must not be forwarded or otherwise made available to any other person without the express written consent of SCB. Copyright: Standard Chartered Bank 2014. Copyright in all materials, text, articles and information contained herein is the property of, and may only be reproduced with permission of an authorised signatory of, Standard Chartered Bank. Copyright in materials created by third parties and the rights under copyright of such parties are hereby acknowledged. Copyright in all other materials not belonging to third parties and copyright in these materials as a compilation vests and shall remain at all times copyright of Standard Chartered Bank and should not be reproduced or used except for business purposes on behalf of Standard Chartered Bank or save with the express prior written consent of an authorised signatory of Standard Chartered Bank. All rights reserved. © Standard Chartered Bank 2014.

THIS IS NOT A RESEARCH REPORT AND HAS NOT BEEN PRODUCED BY A RESEARCH UNIT.

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