Fourth-quarter 2010 presentation to analysts Hafslund ASA 2 February 2011
Christian Berg, CEO
Highlights ─ fourth quarter 2010 (excluding REC profit effect) • Challenging power market conditions. • EBITDA: NOK 850 million before gain on the sale of the Group’s fiber optic network business, up NOK 286 million from 4Q 2009. • Hafslund Fibernett sold — sales price: NOK 1 477 million. Gain on sale: NOK 875 million. Settlement received in January 2011. • Weak European market for wood pellets fuel leads to NOK 300 million facility write-down. • Working capital: up NOK 1 822 million (4Q 2009: NOK 784 million) due to high power consumption and electric power prices. • Board of Directors will propose payment of a per-share dividend of NOK 2.50 for the 2010 accounting year (2009 dividend: NOK 2.25). • The Board will assess further dividend capacity ahead of Hafslund’s 2011 annual shareholders’ meeting.
s.2
EBITDA ─ fourth quarter 2010 (excluding REC) NOK million 1 800 119
1 725
Other Activities
EBITDA
1 700 930 86 246
600 500 400 300
93 252
200 100 0 Hydropower
s.3
District Heating
Network
Power Sales
Venture
EBITDA: change from Q4 2009 (excluding REC) NOK million
101
1 725
Other Activities
Q4 10
961
35
69 35
97
564
Q4 09
s.4
Hydropower
District Heating
Network
Power Sales
Venture
Greater cash flow from operations EBITDA development 12-month rolling EBITDA vs. wholesale power prices
MNOK
øre/kWh
3 000
• Cash flow from operations up 38 percent over the past two years due to factors such as:
50 2 806
+38% 2 468
2 500
40 2 218 2 116 2 033
2 000
2 130
39
2 116
2 000
31
32
30
30
30 27
1 500
20 1 000 10
500
0
Higher cash flow at Network: NOK 209 million.
•
Power Sales earnings growth: NOK 130 million.
• Gradual profit improvement at Network (power distribution grid) business.
Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10
s.5
•
• EBITDA sensitivity: a NOK 0.10 per kWh change in wholesale power prices results in an approximately NOK 340 million change in EBITDA.
0
EBITDA*
Increased power prices: NOK 240 million.
35
34 30
•
2 625
Power prices – rolling 12-month average**
* EBITDA = rolling 12-month EBITDA excluding financial asset value changes (in NOK million). ** Power prices for Hafslund Hydropower – rolling 12 month
Interest-bearing debt: up NOK 2.0 billion in Q4 2010 Net interest-bearing debt and equity ratio
Change in interest-bearing debt in 4Q 10 Amounts in NOK million
NOK billion
Equity ratio
60
14 13.1
13 12
11.6
11.9
50 11.3
11
11.1
EBITDA
38
10
34
33
Net interest-bearing debt 30 September 2010
35
35
40
9 30
-11 074 1 725
Interest paid
-125
Tax paid
-142
Change in market value of financial instruments
-1 000
Change in working capital
-2 054
8 7
20
Investments
-468
6 Net loan portfolio adjustments
5
10
4 3
0 Q4 09
Q1 10
Q2 10
Net interest-bearing debt
s.6
Q3 10
Q4 10
Equity ratio
Net interest-bearing debt 31 December 2010
71
-13 067
Working capital requirements- seasonal variation Working capital and power prices
NOK million
Euro/MWh
2 200
10 0
2 000
90
1 800
80
1 600 70
1 400 1 200
60
1 000
50
800
40
600
20
200
10
0 - 200
0
aug.09
oct.09
dec.09
feb.10
Working capital
apr.10
jun.10
aug.10
oct.10
dec.10
Average power prices
Power sales - sold volume
GWh 6 000
4 500
3 000
5 001
4 369 1 500
4 746
4 105 2 602
2 947 2 162
2 292
0
Q1 09
•s.7
• A normal peak in Q1 and Q4 due to level of sold volume.
30
400
jun.09
• Seasonal variations in working capital depending on sold volume and power prices.
Q2 09
Q3 09
Q4 09
Q1 10
Q2 10
Q3 10
Q4 10
• Working capital variations within a range of NOK 2,1 billion last 12 months.
Capital employed and return on capital employed (ROCE) as of 31 December 2010 (excluding REC) Capital employed
Return on capital employed (ROCE) 11.5%
Hydropower
2.5 %
18%
Other activities Venture 4% 1%
Power sales
19%
District heating
14%
6.0%
6.0%
9.0 %* 4%
Heat and bioenergy
40%
Network
s.8
2008
* 12-month return on capital employed (ROCE) excluding sale of Fibernett and the BioWood Norway write-down.
2009
2010
Hydropower NOK million
Q4 10
Q4 09
2010
2009
Operating revenue
315
202
1 196
856
EBITDA
252
154
972
661
Operating profit
241
144
929
618
43.6
28.1
39.1
27.5
Sales price (øre/kWh) Production volume (GWh)
702
683
3041
3018
Investments
36
37
161
165
kvartal
12 måneder
400
1 200 972
300
791
800
200
600 303
100
231
219
252
240 186
154
178
400 200
102
0
0 Q4 08
s.9
1 000
Q1 09
Q2 09
Q3 09
EBITDA per quarter
Q4 09
Q1 10
Q2 10
Q3 10
Q4 10
EBITDA rolling 12-month
• Profit and operating revenue growth reflect higher power prices than in 4Q 2009. • Production on a par with the average for the fourth quarter despite 58 GWh lower production in December 2010. • Nord Pool Spot (NO1) wholesale/spot price: NOK 0.5 per kWh vs. 4Q 2009: NOK 0.296 per kWh. • New FKF 4 generator scheduled for completion in spring 2011 will increase Hydropower capacity by 100 GWh. • Projected 1Q 2011 generation: Approximately 410 GWh; about 160 GWh, or 28 percent below normal for 1Q.
Hydropower production profile GWh
350 300 250 200 347
150
333 286
329 335
340 342
295
292
314
313
260
100
221
247 220
210
217 214
175
174
150 156
146 142
Feb
Mar
50 0 Jan
Apr
May
2009
s.10
Jun
Jul
2010
Aug
Sep
Normal
*Normal annual production = 3,000 GWh based on 10-year average of production adjusted for capacity improvements.
oct
Nov
Dec
District Heating NOK million
Q4 10
Q4 09
2010
2009
462
245
1 144
747
EBITDA
93
58
283
213
Operating profit
62
31
165
91
26.7
30.2
33.6
33.0
Production volume (GWh)
694
512
1 782
1 382
Investments
210
91
432
397
Operating revenue
Gross margin (øre/kWh)
EBITDA per quarter
EBITDA rolling 12-month
283
200 150
300 250
226
200 100 50
150
152
140
93
92 58
0
6
-11
50
- 50
0 Q4 08
s.11
100
32
25
Q1 09
Q2 09
Q3 09
EBITDA per quarter
Q4 09
Q1 10
Q2 10
Q3 10
Q4 10
EBITDA rolling 12-month
• Revenue growth reflects higher power prices and increased demand. • 4Q is a seasonally strong quarter: deliveries are about 35 percent of annual production. • Lower per kWh contribution margin due to high production costs, despite higher power prices. • New delivery contracts signed in 2010: 128 GWh annual energy outtake.
District Heating — energy sources and unit cost Energy prices (øre/kWh)
Q4 09
Q1 10
Q2 10
Q3 10
Q4 10
Oil/natural gas
49.0
45.5
43.0
57.5
53.0
Electricity
36.6
52.7
48.4
57.9
60.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
77.0
Heat pumps
13.1
20.7
15.0
11.5
21.5
Waste & biofuel
17.4
17.1
17.5
18.9
18.2
Total production cost
28.2
38.4
25.5
25.0
48.4
District Heating incl. Distribution
58.4
73.0
64.8
65.9
75.1
Gross contribution margin
30.2
34.6
39.3
40.9
26.7
Biooil and biodiesel
GWh
• Production costs depend on energy input source and price. • Electricity and renewable energy source usage: 74 % in 2010 and 79 % in 4Q 2010. • Production costs rose NOK 0.202 per kWh from 4Q 2009.
%
800
90 720
694
700
80 70
600 512
60
500
50 400 40 300
30
234
200
20
134
100
10
0
0 Q4 09
s.12
Q1 10
Q2 10
Q3 10
Q4 10
Biooil and biodiesel
Heatpumps
Oil and naturalgas
Waste and biomasse
Electricity
Ratio Electricity and renewable energy sources rolling 12
• Bio-oil and bio-diesel fuels: significant use in 4Q 2010.
District Heating ─ production profile GWh
350 300 250 200 336
150
280 250
100
204
228
210 167
236
190
50
96
134 130
116
61
73
30
45
144
67
29 30
32
37
37
0 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Mai
2009
s.13
Jun
2010
Jul
Aug
Sep
Okt
Normal*
* Normal = projected 2010 production, given normal temperatures (10-year average) and current and planned customer tie-ins to the grid.
Nov
Des
Network NOK million
Q4 10
Q4 09
1 344
1 008
4 804
3 385
EBITDA
246
314
1 077
1 035
Operating profit
109
179
532
493
Investments
164
200
485
521
Operating revenue
2010
2009
• Regulatory income ceiling after grid losses for 2010: NOK 2 287 million, up NOK 181 million from 2009. • Profit for the year charged with “under income” of NOK 203 million (NOK 16 million). • Profit for the year: up 8 percent.
EBITDA per quarter
EBITDA rolling 12 months
350
1 077
300
1 000
868
250
800
200
100
600
314
150 231
231
247
274
243
275
282
246
0
0 Q4 08
Q1 09
Q2 09
Q3 09
EBITDA
s.14
400 200
50
Q4 09
Q1 10
Q2 10
Q3 10
EBITDA rolling 12 months
Q4 10
• Stable operations despite high loads.
1 200
• Profit projection for 2011 on a par with 2010, based on income framework notification from regulatory body NVE, planned maintenance, and anticipated interest rate.
Power Sales NOK million
Q4 10
Q4 09
2 888
1 378
8 021
4 787
EBITDA
86
51
360
248
Operating profit
83
49
348
240
4 744
4 105
14 984
13 238
Operating revenues
Sold volume (GWh)
EBITDA per quarter
2010
2009
EBITDA rolling 12 months
200
360
150
400
300 224
100
50
109
130 86 45
51
52
Q4 08
Q1 09
Q2 09
Q3 09
Q4 09
Q1 10
EBITDA
100
34
22
0
s.15
200
187
0 Q2 10
Q3 10
EBITDA rolling 12 months
Q4 10
• Revenue growth reflects increased prices for wholesale (spot) power contracts traded via Nord Pool Spot and strong demand. • Challenging market conditions. • Satisfactory profit performance in a seasonally strong quarter. • Customer-base: some 951 000 customers in wholly or partly owned power sales companies. • Steep increase in working capital in 4Q 2010: up NOK 1.6 billion. • Profit after tax per cutomer on NOK 360 in 2010.
Heat and Bioenergy NOK million
Q4 10
Q4 09
2010
2009
Operating revenue
33
12
115
49
EBITDA
-7
-6
-51
-11
-310
-7
-386
-27
Energy production (GWh)
77
29
246
93
Used waste (thousand tonns)
32
12
114
57
1
116
189
342
Operating profit
Investments
Bioenergy: • Challenging market conditions. • Low margins responsible for NOK 300 million write-down of Hafslund’s wood pellets plant. • Pilot operation start-up further delayed.
Heat: • High energy production in 4Q 2010. • Pilot operation of the Borregaard energy recovery facility is expected to be completed in 1Q 2011. • Challenging bulk waste market.
s.16
Venture NOK million
Q4 10
Q4 09
2010
Operating revenue
169
176
EBITDA (excl REC)
930
(31)
1 077
(61)
Operating profit (excl REC)
832
(54)
887
(162)
0
(137)
REC
549
2009
(1 991)
779
• Sale of Hafslund Fibernett at a sales price of NOK 1.5 billion yielded NOK 875 million gain. Settlement received 20 January 2011. • Portfolio value decline: NOK 47 million
(137)
• NOK 60 million in capital freed up in 4Q 2010 upon settlement of EUR 66 million sale by Fesil of its SiMetall production Capital employed: NOK 892 million (excluding REC investment) unit. Energy efficiency and other investments
44%
Telecom 36%
7% Renewable energi s.17
14% AMS (metering system)
• REC investment: 89.0 million shares or 8.93 percent of stock — market value: NOK 1.6 billion (at NOK 17.79 per share).
Group profit and loss account (excluding REC) NOK million
Q4 09
2010
∆
Operating revenue
5 189
3 032
2 156
15 829
Gain/loss financial items
1 013
34
979
1 108
Operating expenses EBITDA Depreciation Operating profit Interest expences Market value change loan portfolio Financial expenses Pre-tax profit
(4 477) 1 725 (590) 1 135 (153) 94 (59) 1 076
(2 502) 564
(1 975) 1 160
(13 023) 3 914
(222)
(368)
(1 270)
342
793
2 644
(144)
(9)
(82)
176
(225)
166
117
959
(74)
(23)
(498) 27 (471) 2 173
Tax
(97)
Profit after tax
979
43
936
1 584
5.02
0.22
4.80
8.12
Earnings per share (EPS) in NOK
s.18
Q4 10
(589)
Group balance sheet NOK million Intangible assets
30.09.2010
31.12.2009
∆
2 389
2 440
(52)
2 288
18 557
19 168
(611)
18 809
Financial assets
2 831
3 012
(181)
4 737
Accounts receivables and inventory
5 625
2 330
211
392
Assets
29 613
27 343
2 270
28 918
Equity (incl. Min. int.)
10 464
9 671
794
11 154
2 832
3 502
(670)
3 287
11 321
11 080
242
9 805
Other currently liabilities
2 338
815
1 523
2 741
Short-term debt
2 658
2 275
382
1 931
Equity and liabilities
29 613
27 343
2 270
28 918
Net interest-bearing debt
13 067
11 074
1 993
11 601
Fixed assets
Cash and cash equivalents
Allocation for liabilities Long-therm debt
Equity ratio
s.19
31.12.2010
35 %
35 %
3 295 (181)
0%
2 773 311
39 %
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Additional analytic information
Earnings per share (excluding REC) By quarter NOK 5.02
2.60 1.81 1.01 0.53
1.34 0.86
1.00
0.76
0.22 -0.38 -1.68
s.22
2008
2009
2010
3.26
1.71
8.12
Group cash flow statement (excluding REC profit effect) NOK million EBITDA exclisuv REC
Q4 10
Q4 09
Paid intrests
(125)
(134)
Paid tax
(142)
(94)
1 435 9
3 914 (536)
(48)
(148)
Marketvalue changes and other liquidity adjustments
(1 000)
107
(1 107)
(1 009)
Change in working capital, etc.
(2 054)
(889)
(1 165)
(1 656)
Total cash flow from operations
(1 596)
(720)
(876)
(468)
(499)
Net operations and expansion investments Sold operations Portfolio changes Venture, etc. Cash flow from investments activities Cash flow to down payments and interests
s.23
290
1 725
2010
∆
59 (408) (2 004)
31
565 (1 647)
6
(6)
5
631
(572)
109
138
(546)
(1 532)
(1 422)
(967)
(582)
Capital structure development NOK billion
Equity ratio
50
14 12
40.3
40.0
40.0
40.0
40
38.1
10
35.0
34.3
35.0
33.1
30
8 6
%
11.4
10.5
10.7
11.2
11.6
13.1
11.9
11.3
20
11.1
4 10 2 0
0
Q4 08
Q1 09
Q2 09
Q3 09
Q4 09
Net interest-bearing debt
s.24
Q1 10
Q2 10
Equity ratio
Q3 10
Q4 10
Loans — portfolio data Debt maturity profile
Portfolio data
NOK million 4 000
Q4 10
Q3 10
∆
Bonds
40 %
46 %
-6 %
Certificate loans
12 %
7%
5%
Other loans
48 %
47 %
1%
Q4 10
Q3 10
∆
(135)
(229)
94
(17)
(19)
2
4.0 %
4.3 %
-0.3 %
33 %
42 %
-9 %
1 593
795
798
3 692
4 781
(1 089)
3 333
3 000 2 000
1 815
1 909
1 909
1 056
1 000
1 059 860
700 500 319
0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Certificate loans
Bonds
Other loans
Loans at maturity, next 12 months NOK million
Average interest incl. derivatives
1 600
Proportion of loan portfolio with fixed interest Loans at maturity next quarter (NOK million) Unused drawing facilities (NOK million)
1 293
1 200
300
815
800
381
400
993 384 300
0 Feb
Mar
Apr
Certificate loans
s.25
300
300
May
Jun
326
50
Jan
Nominal value - market value of loans Market value interest rate swaps
Bonds
Jul
Aug
Other loans
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Power and CO2 price development EUR
135
135 120 105
88
90 75 60
EUR/MWh 45 30
EUR/tCO2
15 0
nov.08
jan.09
mar.09 may.09
jul.09
FWD 2014 s.26
sep.09
nov.09
FWD 2011
Source: www.nasdaqomxcommodities.com (as of 6 January 2011)
jan.10
mar.10
CO2 2011
may.10
jul.10
Nordic spotmarket
sep.10
nov.10
jan.11
Hydropower — Glomma waterway flow m3/sek. 2 000
1 500
1 000
500
0
jan
feb
mar
apr
may 2010
jun 2009
jul
aug
sep
oct
nov
dec
Max. capacity utilization
• 4Q 2010 production: On a par with normal for the reporting period. • Maximum capacity utilization: 940 m³/second. • Projected 1Q 2011 production: about 410 GWh (approx. 160 GWh below normal for the reporting period), providing normal reservoir levels and precipitation. s.27
Other Activities NOK million Support Power trading Real estate
Q4 09
2010
(40)
(31)
23
14
29
(10)
(41)
24
(0)
4
(129)
2009 (152)
Billing and customer service
18
23
95
101
Financial derivatives, ass. comp.
64
39
102
191
Other
49
(4)
Operating profit other
s.28
Q4 10
118
0
49 170
(53) 77
Shareholders as of 31 December 2010 # Shareholder
Class A shares Class B shares held held
Total
Ownership
Share of voting rights
Shareholding in thousands 1
City of Oslo
67 525
37 343
104 868
53.7 %
58.5 %
2
Fortum Forvaltning AS
37 853
28 706
66 559
34.1 %
32.8 %
3
Østfold Energi AS
5 201
4
5 205
2.7 %
4.5 %
4
Odin Norden
2 452
2 452
1.3 %
0.0 %
5
MP Pensjon
1 579
1 579
0.8 %
0.0 %
6
Odin Norge
1 219
1 219
0.6 %
0.0 %
7
Hafslund ASA
451
451
0.2 %
0.0 %
8
Folketrygdfonet
419
419
0.2 %
0.0 %
9
AS Herdebred
271
378
0.2 %
0.1 %
333
333
0.2 %
0.0 %
110 686
72 777
183 463
94.0 %
95.9 %
4 742
6 981
11 723
6.0 %
4.1 %
115 428
79 758
195 186
100 %
100 %
107
10 Danske Invest Norwegian stocks Total, 10 largest shareholders Other shareholders Total
s.29
Note: Shareholdings in thousand shares.
Key figures Group
2009
Total assets
29 613
28 918
Sales price (øre/kWh)
Captial employed
27 028
25 870
Production volume (GWh)
Equity
10 464
11 154
Market capitalization
13 603
13 534
Capital matters
Equity ratio Net interest-bearing debt
Capital employed
35 % 13 067
39 % 11 601
Profitability excl. REC Profit after tax
1 584
335
Earnings per share (EPS)
8.11
1.71
Cash flow per share
2.89
9.61
District Heating Capital employed
2010
2009
4 550
4 080
Sales price (øre/kWh)
72.2
60.8
Gross margin (øre/kWh)
33.6
33.0
1 782
1 382
Sales volume (GWh)
s.30
Power Generation
2010
Network
2010 4 377
2009 4 277
39.1
27.5
3 041
3 018
2010
2009
Capital employed
9 668
9 396
Annual Income ceiling
2 891
2 461
NVE-capital (regulatory)
6 163
6 045
Power Sales
2010
2009
Capital employed
3 427
1 980
- of this working capital
2 148
1 350
Total volume (GWh)
14 984
13 238
Venture
2010
2009
Capital employed exl REC Market value REC
892 1 584
1 505 3 432
Definitions Items
Definition
Group Capital employed
Equity + Net interest-bearing debt + Net tax positions
Equity ratio (in%)
(Equity incl. Minority interests / Total assets) X 100
Earnings per share
Profit after tax / Average no. of shares outstanding
Cash flow per share
Net cash from operations / Average no. of shares
Return on equity
Result after tax / Average equity (incl. Minority interests)
Return on capital employed
Operating profit / (Average equity + Net interest-bearing debt + Net tax positions)
Power generation Mean production
Average power generation over the past 10 years.
Investor information • Additional information is available from Hafslund’s website: – www.hafslund.no – You can subscribe to Hafslund press releases
• Group SVP & CFO, Finn Bjørn Ruyter –
[email protected] – tel: +47 911 38 199
• SVP Communications and Corporate Social Responsibility, Karen Onsager –
[email protected] – tel: +47 920 87 007
• Financial Director and Investor Relations contact, Morten J. Hansen –
[email protected] – tel: +47 908 28 577
w w w . h a f s l u n d . n o
www.hafslund.no