2009
Florida Retail Report
ICSC 2008 West Florida Idea Exchange February 2-3, 2009 Grand Hyatt Tampa Bay Tampa, FL
International Council of Shopping Centers
2009
rEGIONAL oVERVIE W
Florida Retail Report
2
Tuesday, February 3, 2009 9:45AM - 10:45AM This panel will feature industry experts who will be speaking on a wide range of topics affecting the retail market, specifically in West Florida. The discussion will review recent activity in the market, insights for where the market is headed, as well as discussions of hot projects and key factors to watch. Justin Greider will also be presenting the 2009 Spring Retail Report.
Steven Steubs
Rod Castan
John Crossman
Justin Greider
President AVID Group
Vice President Courtelis Company
President Crossman & Company
Seth Layton
Associate Director Holliday, Fengolio, Fowler L.P.
Written Report Authors & Contributors Justin M Greider
Claire Thomas
HFF
Crossman & Company
[email protected]
[email protected]
Ben Carter Properties Brandon Partners CBRE Colliers Arnold Courtelis Company CREC Crossman & Company Edens & Avant Equity One Florida Retail Development Florida Retail Partners Haskel Realty
HFF (Holliday Fenoglio Fowler, L.P.) Joyce Development Group Lake Nona Development Madison Marquette Michael Collard Properties North American Properties Pelican Bay Development Phoenicia Development RAM Real Estate Regency Centers Retail Planning Corp The Sembler Company
SouthLand Commercial, Inc. The Shopping Center Group Southeast Centers / SEC Commercial Stiles Corp / Stiles Retail Group Strathmore Development Company Unicorp Development Weingarten Realty Investors The Wilder Company Woolbright Development
Table
of
Contents
The Consumer...............................................................................4 Fundamentals - The Florida Retail Market.................................6 UF Survey of Emerging Conditions..............................................7 Capital Markets Overview...........................................................8 Tampa / St. Petersburg................................................................6 Pasco & Hernando.......................................................................8 Port St. Lucie...............................................................................9 Miami / Dade..............................................................................10 Orlando.......................................................................................12 Central Florida...........................................................................15 Broward......................................................................................16 Palm Beach................................................................................18 Jacksonville................................................................................20 Fort Myers / Cape Coral............................................................22 Naples.........................................................................................24 Sarasota / Bradenton................................................................25 The Panhandle...........................................................................26 Tallahassee................................................................................27 The Villages................................................................................28 Ocala..........................................................................................29
tABLE OF cONTENTS
International Council of Shopping Centers
3
2009
Existing Home Sales
Florida Grocery Market Share Existing Home Sales
5,750,000
# of Stores
% Mkt.
Publix
680
40.2%
0.4%
2
Walmart Superctr.
159
24.0%
-0.5%
3
Winn-Dixie
357
13.4%
-0.7%
4
Albertsons
93
4.1%
-0.1%
5
Sweetbay
110
3.0%
0.1%
6
SuperTarget
38
2.6%
0.6%
7
Walmart Neigh.
20
1.4%
0.3%
$190,000
8
Save-A-Lot
76
1.2%
-0.1%
9
Military
10
0.8%
0.0%
$180,000
10
Whole Foods
15
0.8%
N/A
11
Sedano's
29
0.7%
0.0%
All Others
558
7.8%
-0.8%
$230,000
Median Sale Price
5,500,000
$220,000
5,250,000
$210,000
5,000,000 $200,000
4,750,000 4,500,000 4,250,000
08 De
c-
8 t-0
gAu
Oc
08
08 n-
08 r-
Ju
Fe
Ap
b-
07 c-
7
De
Au
Oc
t-0
07 g-
nJu
08
$170,000 07
4,000,000
Source: National Association of Realtors
Residential Housing Starts (In Thousands) 600
500
400
300
200
08 20
07 20
06 20
05 20
04 20
03
100
Source US Census Bureau
Retail Spending 13.0%
$1,200,000 Total Retail Sales
$1,150,000
Grocery Store Sales (As % of Overall Sales)
12.5%
$1,100,000 12.0%
$1,050,000
$1,000,000
11.5%
$950,000 11.0% $900,000
08 20
07 20
06 20
05 20
20
20
04
10.5%
03
$850,000
Source: US Census Bureau
Consumer Confidence - US vs Florida 100
90
80
70
US Florida
60
08 20
07 20
06 20
05 20
04 20
20
03
50
US Data Source University of Michigan Survey of Consumers / Florida Data Source University of Florida
4
Retailer 1
$240,000
6,000,000
20
The Consumer
Florida Retail Report
12
Source: Shelby Report of the Southeast
vs YE07
International Council of Shopping Centers
Florida Statewide Capital Markets Trends
Florida Historical Rent & Occupancy
$9.00
9.0%
Occupancy
Rolling 12-Mo Volume (In Billions)
$8.00
$18.50
96.0%
8.5%
Average Cap Rate
$7.00 8.0%
$6.00
95.0%
Rental Rate
$18.00
94.0%
$17.50
93.0%
$5.00
$17.00
7.5% 92.0%
9.0% Rolling 12-Mo Volume (In Billions)
6.5%
$15.00
6.0%
8 YE
Y
'0
'0
8
7 M
YE
Y
'0
'0
7
6 M
YE
Y
'0
'0
6
5 '0
M
YE
93.0%
$17.50
'0
Occupancy
92.5%
$17.00
Rental Rate
92.0%
$16.50
91.5%
$16.00
91.0%
$15.50 8 YE
M
Y
'0
'0
8
7
M
YE
Y
'0
'0
7
6
M
YE
Y
'0
'0
6
5 '0 YE
M
YE
Y
'0
5
4 '0
4 '0 Y M
Neighborhood and Community Center Rental & Occupancy Rates taken from REIS, Inc
National Completions & absorptions 45 Completions Net Absorption
35
25
15
12 20
11 20
10 20
09 20
08 20
07 20
06 20
05 20
04 20
-5
03
5
20
Source: Real Capital Analytics
5
$18.00
YE
M
Y
'0
7 '0 YE
M
Y
'0
6 '0 YE
M
Y
'0
5 '0 YE
M
Y
'0
4 '0 YE
8
$25.00
8
7.0%
7
$35.00
6
7.5%
5
$45.00
4
8.0%
'0
National Historical Rent & Occupancy 93.5%
8.5%
Average Cap Rate
$55.00
Y
YE
Y M
Nationwide Capital Markets Trends $75.00
M
'0
'0
8 M
Neighborhood and Community Center Rental & Occupancy Rates taken from REIS, Inc
Source: Real Capital Analytics
$65.00
$15.50 '0
89.0%
$16.00
4
6.0% Y
'0 YE
M
90.0%
'0
7
7 Y
'0
M
YE
'0
6
6 Y
'0 YE
'0
5
5 '0 Y M
M
YE
Y
'0
'0
4
4
$1.00
6.5%
Y
$2.00
$16.50
91.0%
M
7.0%
$3.00
4
$4.00
-15
Source: REIS, Inc
5
2009
Tampa / St Petersburg Market Highlights • Renovations of University Mall were completed in 2008 • BayWalk retail / entertainment complex is being put up for auction, stirring hope the project will be able to be rejuvenated • Super Bowl XLIII hosted in Tampa
Local Economy
The Tampa/St. Petersburg/Clearwater area has been a premier location for 2008/2009 sports fans, bringing in 1,811,986 attendees during the season as well as the recent Super Bowl XLIII.
Workforce Size Unemployment Rate
MY08
YE08
Change
1,348,365
1,356,433
0.59%
5.6%
7.8%
2.20%
Source: Florida Research and Economic Database
Occupancy
8 '0
'0 Y M
YE
8
7 '0 YE
M
Y
'0
7
6 YE
M
Y
'0
'0
6
5 '0 YE
M
Y
'0
5
4 '0 YE
Y
'0
4
Rental Rate
Neighborhood and Community Center Rental and Occupancy Rates taken from REIS, Inc
Tampa Retail Leasing Data Submarket Name Clearwater / North Pinellas East Hillsborough County NW Hillsborough / Westshore Pasco St. Petersburg / South Pinellas
Inventory 8,717,000 8,392,000 8,637,000 6,514,000 6,456,000
Tampa-St. Pete Market Total 38,716,000 Neighborhood and Community Center Rental and Occupancy Rates Source: REIS, Inc.
6
Tampa MSA Employment Data
Tampa is a largely populated city with infinite opportunities available for all ages. In 2008, Forbes ranked Tampa as the 5th best outdoor city. City leaders are looking to draw more people to the downtown area in hopes to support the local market. Putting aside the downturn in condo projects, this should attract some traffic to the area where many Tampa Historical Rent & Occupancy will find vacant spaces. St. Petersburg 95.0% $14.50 has finished major renovations to the fine $14.00 94.0% arts museum downtown, which is located $13.50 next to retail. Additionally, the Salvador 93.0% Dali Museum has broken ground on a new $13.00 museum in downtown St. Petersburg, as 92.0% $12.50 well as a new Chihuly Museum. These 91.0% $12.00 updates and additions will draw some appeal to these areas. 90.0% $11.50 M
Tampa / St. Pete
Florida Retail Report
Occupancy Rate MY08 YE08 Change
MY08
Rental Rate YE08 Change
91.6% 92.3% 94.8% 92.2% 91.2%
90.5% 91.7% 94.1% 86.4% 91.1%
-1.0% -0.6% -0.7% -5.8% -0.1%
$15.92 $15.74 $18.39 $13.04 $13.60
$13.72 $12.41 $15.46 $9.89 $11.76
-13.8% -21.2% -15.9% -24.2% -13.5%
92.5%
91.0%
-1.5%
$13.94
$12.85
-7.8%
International Council of Shopping Centers
Market Makers
Tampa Capital Markets Trends
Gibsonton Square Strathmore Development Company - Riverview 225,000 SF - Wal-Mart Shadow - Breaks Ground 1Q 2009
8.5% $1.10
Rolling 12-Mo Volume (In Billions)
8.0%
Average Cap Rate
$0.95 $0.80
7.0%
$0.50 6.5%
$0.35
8 M
Y
'0
7 '0 YE
7 M
Y
'0
6 '0 YE
6 M
Y
'0
5 '0 YE
'0 M
YE
Y
'0
'0
4
5
6.0% 4
$0.20 Y
City Plaza at Tampa Palms Crossman & Company - New Tampa 154,000 SF Publix & SteinMart - Renovation Late 2009
$0.65
M
MetWest International MetLife - Westshore 75,000 SF of Retail in 1 Million SF Project - Underway
7.5%
Source: Real Capital Analytics
Riverview Bell Plaza - Phase I DeBartolo Development - Riverview 205,107 SF Big Box Anchored - Opening 2010
Pavilion Shoppes Stiles Corp. / Adler Group JV - Brandon 85,000 SF Grocery-Anchored - Opening Late 2009
Publix at Southshore Village Concordia Properties - Ruskin 82,000 SF Publix Anchored - Opening Spring 2010
Woodlands Square RAM Real Estate - Oldsmar 298,883 SF - AMC, Marshalls - Renovated 2008
Mears Town Center DeBartolo Development, AG Development, Forge Capital 96,000 SF Sweetbay Anchored - Phase I Starting Feb-09
Walden Woods Shopping Center Publix / RMC Property Group - Plant City Redevelopment Including New Publix - Completed 2008
University Mall GGP / Someroch Holdings Renovations Completed November 2008
Publix at Treasure Island Publix / Equity Ventures - Treasure Island 28,888 SF Publix Opened August 2008
Barclay Square Edens & Avant - Largo Redevelopment into Wal-Mart Neighborhood Market Completion Summer 2009 Recent Shopping Center Sales Property City
SF
Land 'O
80,000
(Anchor) Arbor Square at Connerton
(Publix)
2007
$17.8
CAP Rate N/A
Lakes
Midway Plaza
Largo
127,198 1958/
$8.7
N/A
1985 Riverview
Dec.
Buyer
Seller
96%
Familat Holdings
Stiles Corp.
61,676
2002
Jul
92%
Equity Investment
Lincoln National
2008 $6.4
N/A
(Albertson's)
Jan
Group 100%
Mimms Enterprises
2008
Marketplace at Cypress Creek
Sale Date Occ. 2008
(Publix) Bloomington Hills
Year Price Built $Mil
Tampa (Sweetbay)
75,100
1989
$8.6
N/A
Sept. 2007
Developers Diversified
N/A
Praedium Group
Capital Realty Investors
Sales Comps From HFF, L.P. Proprietary Research & Real Capital Analytics
7
2009
Pasco / Hernando
Florida Retail Report Pasco / Hernando Economy Hernando County development activity continues to be most prevalent in the southwest sector within the Spring Hill area. Employment in Hernando County is influenced by the retail trade, health care, and the accommodations/food service industries. These employment industries account for approximately 53% of the jobs in Hernando County.
Pasco County Employment Data Workforce Size Unemployment Rate
MY08
YE08
Change
197,347
198,842
0.75%
6.5%
8.9%
2.40%
Source: Florida Research and Economic Database
Hernando County Employment Data Workforce Size
MY08
YE08
Change
63,346
64,187
1.31%
7.4% 10.2% 2.80% Pasco County is ranked as one of the fastest growing Unemployment Rate Source: Florida Research and Economic Database counties in Florida, according to The St. Petersburg Times. The increasing growth of relocating families is shown in its student enrollment to the local schooling system, increasing from 46,458 students in the 1999-2000 school year to 65,126 in the 2007-2008 school year, an increase of 40.2%. The proximity of Pasco County to the Bay Area enables residents to commute to work.
Market Makers
Summertree Plaza Century Retail - Zephyrhills 64,200 SF Publix Anchored - Recently Opened Nature Coast Commons Opus South Corporation - Spring Hill 350,000 SF JC Penny Anchor - Phase I Open
Hays Town Center Dunphy Properties - SR 52 105,000 SF Publix-Anchored Delivery Feb 2011 Terra Bella Boyd Development Corporation - Wesley Chapel 14 Acre Retail Development
Shoppes at Avalon Stiles Corp JV Publix 62,450 SF Publix Anchored - Break Ground 1Q 09 Shoppes at Sunlake Equity One - Pasco County 120,000 SF Publix Anchored - Opened Dec-08
Suncoast Crossings Regency Centers - Spring Hill 381,856 SF Target & Kohl’s Anchored Kohl’s Open, Target Opening July-09
Recent Shopping Center Sales Property (Anchor) Fairway Oaks
City
SF
Port Richey
79,283
Year Price Built $Mil 1994
$7.6
CAP Rate N/A
(Publix) Holiday
Universal Plaza
New Port
Merchant's Square
67,363 90,631
1994
$8.5
N/A
1978
$5.3
7.5%
Richey Zephyrhills
(Sweetbay) Sales Comps From HFF, L.P. Proprietary Research & Real Capital Analytics
8
Sept.
84%
2008
Holiday Centre (Publix) (Unanchored)
Sale Date Occ.
Buyer
Seller
Forge Capital
Case Pomeroy
Partners
Nov. 2007
96%
Sunray Holiday LLC
Robert Schmidt
Jun.
N/A
N/A
Equity Partners RE
Phillips Edison
DDR
2007 74,848
1993
$7.6
7.3%
Jun. 2007
100%
Martin / St. Lucie Economy
St. Lucie County Employment Data MY08
YE08
Change
Martin County is a great location for growth, has an Workforce Size 189,912 192,721 1.46% educated workforce and a pro-business government. Unemployment Rate 6.9% 9.5% 2.60% St. Lucie County’s 572 square miles contain two major Source: Florida Research and Economic Database cities, Fort Pierce in the north and Port St. Lucie in the south. In 2004, Port St. Lucie ranked the 2nd safest city in Florida and the 24th safest city in the country.
In 2007, Port St. Lucie’s Mann Research Center closed on a 22-acre parcel. It intends to build up to six buildings, which would include approximately 100,000 SF of medical office space and 300,000 SF of research and development facilities, with a small amount of support retail. In September 2006, Torrey Pines Institute for Molecular Studies announced an expansion commitment to St. Lucie County. On January 8, 2008 the Economic Development Council of St. Lucie County announced that the Oregon Health & Science University would be establishing a local presence with the Vaccine and Gene Therapy Insitute (VGTI).
Market Makers
Town Center at St. Lucie West Benderson Development Beall’s Anchored Opened Apr-2008
Century Town Center Century Retail - Vero Beach 100,000 SF Marshalls, HomeGoods, & PetCo Recently Opened
Coral Square Shoppes Tulepan Management - Port St. Lucie 180,000 SF Grocery Anchored Breaking Ground Feb-2009
Jensen Beach Retail DeBartolo Development - Jensen Beach 50,000 SF Retail Planned The Landing at Tradition Tradition Development Corp. / Core Communities Target, BB&B, Michaels, TJ Maxx, LA Fitness, Sports Authority, Office Max, PetsMart, Old Navy, Pier 1 & Ulta - Grand Opening Oct-2007
Old Palm City Shopping Center Publix & Trion Group - Palm City 17,420 SF Planned Expansion Stuart Publix Publix Supermarkets - Stuart 56,500 SF Publix Anchored - Opening Q2 09
Port St. Lucie
International Council of Shopping Centers
Recent Shopping Center Sales Property (Anchor) Ocean Breeze Plaza (Publix) Port St. Lucie Town
City
SF
Jensen
108,209
Year Price Built $Mil
CAP Rate
1985
$14.7
N/A
Aug
1996
$18.0
8.0%
Mar.
Beach Ft. Pierce
96%
2008 Vero Beach
329,361
1994
$38.3
N/A
Outlet Center Pineapple Commons
N/A
Buyer
Seller
Century Retail
Oct
Port St. Lucie
Stuart
249,100
2005
$43.9
N/A
Jul. 2007
PSL Town Center LLC
Suburban LLC N/A
Taubman Co.
2001
(Best Buy, Ross, PetsMart)
Glenmorris LLC
2008 152,150
Center (Bealls, Staples) Tanger Vero Beach
Sale Date Occ.
Urdang & Assoc JV Stoltz Real Estate
100%
Weingarten JV PNC
Ram JV Debartolo
Bank
Sales Comps From HFF, L.P. Proprietary Research & Real Capital Analytics
9
2009
Florida Retail Report Miami Market Highlights • Miami remains a sought after market with the highest transaction volume, price PSF, and lowest cap rate in Florida for 2008
Miami
• Despite falling .5% in the second half of 2008, Miami’s occupancy remains the highest in the state, led by the South Dade submarket at over 96%
Local Economy
This global metropolis in the southeastern part of Miami / Dade MSA Employment Data MY08 YE08 Change Florida has been attracting residents to the area for Workforce Size 1,207,086 1,200,504 -0.55% years. Miami is the seventh-largest metro area in the Unemployment Rate 4.7% 5.5% 0.80% country and is called a global city for its significance Source: Florida Research and Economic Database in finance, commerce, media, entertainment and international trade. Major employers in the area are the University of Miami, American Airlines, United Parcel Service, & Carnival Cruise Lines. In 2008, Miami was ranked the 3rd-richest city in the United States and the world’s 22nd-richest city in a UBS study. Due to Miami’s location, it serves as the headquarters of Latin American Miami Historical Rent & Occupancy operations for more than 1400 multinational 97% $22.50 corporations. $22.00 Occupancy
Rental Rate
$21.50
96%
$21.00 $20.50
95%
$20.00 $19.50
94%
$19.00 $18.50
8 '0
'0 Y M
YE
8
7 '0 YE
M
Y
'0
7
6 YE
M
Y
'0
'0
6
5 '0 YE
5 '0 Y M
'0 YE
'0 Y M
4
$18.00 4
93%
Neighborhood and Community Center Rental and Occupancy Rates taken from REIS, Inc
Miami’s entertainment industry has allowed for lucrative marketing opportunities recently. In the Dolphin Stadium alone, it hosted 75th Fedex Orange Bowl and the BCS National Championship game in January of 2009. There are three professional sports teams that are home to Miami: baseball, basketball and football.
Miami Retail Leasing Data Submarket Name Coral Gables / Kendall / Richmond Miami / Miami Beach Opa-Locka / Norland / Hialeah South Dade West Dade
Miami Market Total
Inventory
MY08
Rental Rate YE08 Change
6,791,000 5,479,000 4,142,000 2,547,000 4,208,000
96.4% 93.4% 93.3% 95.8% 94.8%
95.7% 93.3% 93.1% 96.1% 93.5%
-0.7% -0.1% -0.2% 0.3% -1.3%
$27.43 $24.61 $21.12 $18.27 $24.06
$22.80 $24.61 $17.01 $15.51 $19.78
-16.9% 0.0% -19.5% -15.1% -17.8%
23,167,000
94.8%
94.3%
-0.5%
$22.06
$20.84
-5.5%
Neighborhood and Community Center Rental and Occupancy Rates Source: REIS, Inc.
10
Occupancy Rate MY08 YE08 Change
International Council of Shopping Centers
Market Makers
Miami Capital Markets Trends
The Westchester Midwood Investment & Development - Westchester 200,000 SF Publix, TJ Maxx, & Home Depot - Underway
$1.40
Miami Airport Village Courtelis Company & The Easton Group 500,000 SF Mixed-Use Project - Planned Opening 2011/12
$0.80
8.5% Rolling 12-Mo Volume (In Billions)
$1.25
8.0%
Average Cap Rate
$1.10 7.5%
$0.95
7.0%
$0.65
6.5%
$0.50 6.0%
$0.35
The Palms Town & Country Flagler Development Group - Kendall 700,000 SF Publix, Kohl’s, Nordstrom Rack Phase I Open, Phase II Under Construction
8 M
Y
'0
7 '0 YE
7 M
Y
'0
6 '0 YE
6 M
Y
'0
5 '0 YE
'0 Y M
M
YE
Y
'0
'0
4
5
5.5% 4
$0.20
Source: Real Capital Analytics
Flamingo Park Plaza Saglo Development Corp. - Hialeah 149,000 SF Navarro Pharmacy - Completion Oct-2008 West Sunset Square Woolbright Development - West Kendall 82,885 SF Retail Development - Opened Late 2008
Eureka Promenade Brandon Partners - Miami 81,081 SF Publix Anchored - Opening Early 2010 Fifth and Alton Berkowitz Development - Miami Beach Publix, Best Buy, and Staples Anchored - Summer 2009 Promenade at Silver Palm Brandon Company / Publix JV - Miami 72,931 SF Publix Anchored - Planned
127th Street Shopping Center Monroe’s Prestige Group - North Miami Beach 165,248 SF Publix Anchored Redevelopment Construction Beginning Fall 2008
Recent Shopping Center Sales Property City
SF
Opa Locka
47,285
(Anchor) Stadium Corners
Year Price Built $Mil 2007
$8.3
CAP Rate 6.3%
(Super Wal-Mart, Office Depot) Town & Country Plaza
Miami
94,816
1991
$22.5
6.9%
100%
Oct
Buyer
Seller
Stadium Corners
Echion Co
SC LLC 100%
MMG Equity Partners
Town & Country Inc
98%
CalPERS JV Equity One
Courtelis
100%
Wal-Mart Stores
2008 Miami
172,093
1971
$37.0
6.3%
(Publix) Beacon Centre
Dec 2008
(Sedano's)
Airpark Plaza
Sale Date Occ.
Feb. 2008
Opa Locka
(Circuit City & Office Max)
87,005
1993
$15.9
6.2%
Aug 2007
Principal Real Estate Investors
Sales Comps From HFF, L.P. Proprietary Research & Real Capital Analytics
11
2009
Florida Retail Report Orlando Market Highlights
• Winter Garden Village at Fowler Groves was the largest retail asset sale in the Southeast in 2008 at $180.4 million
Local Economy
Orlando has a wealth of attractions for visitors and Orlando MSA Employment Data MY08 YE08 Change residents alike and consistently ranks as a leading Workforce Size 1,115,410 1,130,901 1.37% place to conduct business. This Central Florida City Unemployment Rate 5.0% 7.3% 2.30% has a number of significant new projects underway Source: Florida Research and Economic Database such as the new medical city at Lake Nona featuring the UCF College of Medicine and Burnham Institute for Medical Research. This 600-acre site will also be home to the $656 million Orlando VA Medical Center, Nemours Childrens Hospital, MD Anderson’s Orlando Research Institute, and a UF Orlando Historical Rent & Occupancy Research Center. The project is projected $22.00 96% to have an impact of billions of dollars to 95% the local economy as well as generate $21.00 94% thousands of jobs. Occupancy
Rental Rate
93%
$20.00
92% $19.00
91% 90%
$18.00
89%
8 YE
'0 Y M
Orlando is home to the University of Central Florida, which is the second largest university in Florida in regards to student enrollment and has the 6th largest enrollment count in the nation.
'0
8
7 '0 YE
'0 Y M
YE
7
6 '0
6 '0 Y
YE
M
'0
5 '0 M
Y
'0 YE
'0 Y M
5
$17.00 4
88% 4
Orlando
• SoDo opens with great fanfare near Downtown with SuperTarget, TJ Maxx, and 24 Hour Fitness
Neighborhood and Community Center Rental and Occupancy Rates taken from REIS, Inc
Recent Shopping Center Sales Property City
SF
Winter Garden Village
Winter
758,988
at Fowler Groves
Garden
Tuscawilla Bend
Oviedo
(Anchor)
Year Price Built $Mil 2007
$180.4
CAP Rate 7.4%
83,377
Apopka
1994
$11.9
6.3%
148,100
1985/
$34.0
N/A
$42.4
N/A
2001 Kissimmee
(Target, Jo-Ann Fabrics) Sales Comps From HFF, L.P. Proprietary Research & Real Capital Analytics
12
Buyer
Seller
95%
Cole Capital Partners
Sembler Co.
Mar.
94%
Juster Development
Case Pomeroy
90%
Macquarie
Developers
100%
Heitman Capital
Ramco-Gershenson
Management
Properties
2008
(Albertsons) Kissimmee West
Sep 2008
(Publix) Piedmont Plaza
Sale Date Occ.
115,586
2004
Aug.
Properties
2007 Jul. 2007
Diversified
International Council of Shopping Centers
Market Makers
Orlando Capital Markets Trends
Rolling Oaks Commons Southeast Centers - Kissimmee 330,000 SF Target Anchored - Opening March 2009
$1.60
Town Center at Cagan Crossings Cagan Management Group - Clermont 56,000 SF - Opened 2008
$0.80
9.0% Rolling 12-Mo Volume (In Billions)
$1.40
8.5%
Average Cap Rate
$1.20 8.0%
$1.00
7.5%
$0.60
7.0%
$0.40 6.5%
$0.20
College Station Retail Center Presco Real Estate Group - Clermont 100,000 SF w/ Office Depot, Petco & Matress Barn Phase I Open / Phase II Opens mid-2009 Glenbrook Commons Southeast Centers - Clermont 65,000 SF Sweetbay - Opening Feb-09
8 M
Y
'0
7 '0 YE
7 M
Y
'0
6 '0 YE
6 M
Y
'0
5 '0 YE
M
Y
'0
4 '0 YE
'0 Y
5
6.0% 4
$0.00 M
Millenia Crossing MadisonMarquette - Millenia 100,000 SF Nordstrom Rack Anchor - Opening Late 09
Source: Real Capital Analytics
LOOP West The Wilder Companies - Kissimmee 400,000 SF JC Penney, Belk - Recently Opened Rialto The Wilder Companies - Sand Lake 350,000 SF Lifestyle Center - Recently Opened Phillips Crossing Weingarten Realty - Sand Lake 144,846 SF Whole Foods & Michaels - Recently Opened
Orlando Retail Leasing Data Submarket Name Airport Altamonte / Longwood Apopka Casselberry / Winter Springs Clermont East Colonial Drive Florida Mall Area I - Drive Kissimmee - Local Kissimmee - Tourist Lake Mary Millenia Orlando - Central Area Oviedo - Tuscawilla Rosemont - Pine Hills Sanford South Orange County Southwest St. Cloud Tourist - Sand Lake Winter Garden - Ocoee Winter Park - Maitland
Orlando Market Total
Inventory
Occupancy Rate MY08 YE08 Change
MY08
Rental Rate YE08 Change
2,037,917 3,098,164 1,456,257 1,390,962 1,947,197 2,369,584 2,048,259 1,197,209 3,352,596 1,366,772 1,278,114 673,148 2,159,463 1,546,053 1,841,198 1,657,074 1,394,877 2,097,657 667,980 1,510,495 2,728,917 1,313,981
93.8% 91.3% 88.1% 91.2% 96.5% 95.5% 90.8% 90.7% 93.2% 88.4% 92.6% 95.4% 88.0% 95.6% 94.8% 89.1% 95.5% 93.6% 92.3% 94.8% 91.9% 94.8%
92.6% 91.5% 88.2% 84.8% 94.3% 92.7% 86.2% 87.1% 88.6% 88.1% 93.5% 89.8% 80.3% 86.1% 90.5% 86.9% 94.6% 87.4% 91.2% 89.0% 86.5% 89.5%
-1.2% 0.2% 0.1% -6.5% -2.2% -2.8% -4.6% -3.6% -4.6% -0.4% 0.9% -5.5% -7.7% -9.5% -4.3% -2.2% -0.9% -6.2% -1.2% -5.8% -5.4% -5.4%
$20.83 $20.82 $16.65 $16.39 $23.46 $20.15 $16.98 $26.14 $20.53 $21.29 $25.11 $29.33 $20.27 $19.25 $14.36 $17.23 $20.50 $22.85 $16.07 $27.67 $23.13 $20.94
$20.03 $20.15 $16.77 $15.86 $22.55 $20.31 $16.57 $23.36 $22.38 $21.29 $22.28 $24.63 $21.23 $18.96 $13.10 $16.45 $20.76 $21.33 $15.63 $29.50 $24.19 $21.60
-3.8% -3.2% 0.7% -3.2% -3.9% 0.8% -2.4% -10.6% 9.0% 0.0% -11.3% -16.0% 4.7% -1.5% -8.8% -4.5% 1.3% -6.7% -2.7% 6.6% 4.6% 3.2%
39,133,874
92.6%
89.0%
-3.6%
$20.74
$20.51
-1.1%
Neighborhood and Community Center Rental and Occupancy Rates Source: HFF, L.P. Proprietary Research
13
2009
Orlando
Florida Retail Report Casselberry Square Southern Management & Dvlmt - Casselberry 97,326 SF w/ New Save-A-Lot Anchor Jun-08
Plaza Collina Shopping Center Phoenicia Development - Clermont 950,000 SF - Phase I Opening Fall 2010
Village Shops at Bellalago Southeast Centers - Poinciana 100,000 SF Publix- Anchored - Opened 2008
City Centre at Posner Park Trammell Crow Company - Four Corners 450,000 SF - Site Work Underway
University Commons Southern Management & Dvlmt - East Colonial 73,413 SF - Open Sep-2008
Eagle Creek Town Center Emerson International - Lake Nona 200,000 SF Grocery-Anchored Opening 2010/2011
SoDo Kimco Realty Corp. & North American Properties 450,000 SF Super Target & TJ Maxx - Now Open
Groveland Shoppes Boyd Development Corporation - Groveland 11 Acre Development - Planned
Osceola Village Monroe’s Prestige Group - Kissimmee 116,705 SF Publix & HH Gregg Opened Dec-2008
Nona Park Grandstaff Development & Equinox Development 330,000 SF - Big Box Anchor Construction is Underway
Clermont Landing Weingarten Realty / Epic Theaters JV - Clermont 365,915 SF JC Penney, Epic Theater, TJ Maxx, Ross & Michaels - Opens Mar-2009 Saxon Crossing Michael Collard Properties - Orange City 69,590 SF LA Fitness Anchor - Recently Opened Publix at Cross Creek The Sembler Company - St. Cloud 66,360 SF Publix-Anchored Opened Oct-2008 Shops of Deland Weingarten Realty - Deland Epic Theater & Grocery Anchored Break Ground Oct-2009 Shoppes at Balmy Beach Boyd Development Corporation - Apopka 20 Acres w/ Grocery-Anchored Ground Breaking 2Q09
14
The Village at Lake Lily The Morgan Group - Maitland Mixed-Use with 50,000 SF of Retail Completion Scheduled Q4 09
Lakeland / Polk County
Central Florida
International Council of Shopping Centers
Lakeland Employment Data MY08
YE08
Change
Lakeland is located between two major cities, Orlando Workforce Size 269,437 272,726 1.21% and Tampa, with easy to access two international Unemployment Rate 5.6% 8.3% 2.70% airports less than an hour away. Lakeland has been Source: Florida Research and Economic Database ranked 4th by Business 2.0 in “Top 10 cities: Where to Buy Now.” The headquarters of Florida’s largest private employer, Publix Supermarkets, is located there. Polk County’s economy is based on citrus, cattle, and phosphate mining. Another economy driver is the $72 million generated by the operation of the Spring Training of the Detroit Tigers.
Daytona MSA Employment Data Workforce Size Unemployment Rate
MY08
YE08
Change
253,287
255,677
0.93%
5.9%
8.1%
2.20%
Source: Florida Research and Economic Database
Volusia & Brevard
Volusia and Brevard Counties are homes to popular tourist destinations which host over 8 million visitors per year. Daytona Beach has been a desirable area for retail and vacation seekers for decades. A landmark of the east coast is Port Canaveral, the world’s largest cruise port. Port Canaveral has six major cruise terminals, which handled 4 million tons of cargo in 2004. The port assists Brevard’s economy by $500 million annually. Brevard County’s tourism brings in $1 billion annually to the area. The Brevard economy is driven by trade, transportation, healthcare, manufacturing, hospitality, and construction. Due to the coastal location, these areas will maintain development opportunities as transportation and trade expand. The Pavilion arket akers The Benchmark Group & CBL - Port Orange Southgate Shopping Center JC Penney, Belk, Marshalls, Michaels, Barnes & Crossman & Company - Lakeland Noble, and Hollywood Theaters - Opening Fall 2009 140,000 SF Publix-Anchored Redevelopment
M
M
Gresham Village Hammock Landing Watkins Retail Group - Lakeland The Benchmark Group & CBL - Melbourne 89,831 SF Publix Anchored Opening 2012 Target, Ross, Toys R Us, Kohl’s, Michaels, Marshalls, & Petco - Opening Spring 2009 Shoppes of Newberry Triarch Capital Group - Gainesville Crossroads Shopping Center David’s Bridal Anchor - Opening October 2009 SR7 Palm Bay - Melbourne 107,000 SF Renovation Complete Sep-2008 Recent Shopping Center Sales Property (Anchor) Winter Haven Citi Centre
City
SF
Winter Haven
185,705
Year Price Built $Mil
CAP Rate
2001
$20.0
7.2%
May
1990
$11.0
8.4%
Mar.
1983
$9.4
N/A
(Belk, Staples)
Victoria Square
113,050
(Play It Again Sports)
113,689
Feb. 2008
Seller
Schmier & Feurring Properties
Centre LLC
92%
Southern Realty
Victoria Square LLC
N/A
Orange City
Mortimer
Realty LLC
Zimmerman
2008 Orange City
Buyer
100%
2008 Deland
(Tuesday Morning) Village Fields
Sale Date Occ.
Winter Haven Citi
Group
Sales Comps From HFF, L.P. Proprietary Research & Real Capital Analytics
15
2009
Ft. Lauderdale Market Highlights • Broward County saw a net decrease in population in 2008 • The high volume of new deliveries in 2007 & 2008 which caused a surge of over16% in rental rates from 2004-2007 has put a great deal of pressure on vacancy, which is at 5 year highs
Local Economy
Broward County’s significant tourist industry continually brings in a record of visitors to the area. Fort Lauderdale hosted over 10.7 million visitors who spent over $8.8 billion in 2008 at locations and events including more than 326 sporting events.
Occupancy
95%
Workforce Size Unemployment Rate
MY08
YE08
Change
1,001,280
1,001,139
-0.01%
4.8%
6.6%
1.80%
Source: Florida Research and Economic Database
$17.50
Rental Rate
94%
$17.00
93%
$16.50
92% $16.00
91%
Broward County is projected to acquire an additional 10,000 new households per year through 2012. This projection is anticipated to secure future retail prospects.
$15.50
90%
8 '0
'0 Y M
YE
8
7 YE
'0
7 '0 Y M
'0 YE
6 '0 Y M
'0 YE
5 '0 Y M
'0 YE
'0 Y
6
$14.50 5
88% 4
$15.00
4
89%
Neighborhood and Community Center Rental and Occupancy Rates taken from REIS, Inc
Broward County Retail Leasing Data Submarket Name
Inventory
Occupancy Rate MY08 YE08 Change
MY08
Rental Rate YE08 Change
Cooper City / Pembroke / Miramar Coral Springs / Margate Dania / Hollywood / Hallandale Fort Lauderdale Plantation / Sunrise / Tamarac Pompano Beach / Deerfield Beach
8,170,000 6,299,000 3,745,000 7,732,000 8,083,000 5,396,000
94.1% 88.9% 93.0% 93.0% 91.2% 92.0%
92.5% 83.9% 87.1% 92.7% 90.0% 89.5%
-1.6% -5.0% -5.9% -0.3% -1.2% -2.5%
$18.26 $15.64 $19.26 $16.74 $15.80 $14.92
$18.32 $15.65 $18.77 $16.69 $15.80 $14.84
0.3% 0.1% -2.5% -0.3% 0.0% -0.5%
Ft Lauderdale Market Total
39,425,000
92.1%
89.7%
-2.3%
$16.68
$16.62
-0.3%
Neighborhood and Community Center Rental and Occupancy Rates Source: REIS, Inc.
16
Broward County Employment Data
Broward County is home to many international cruise liners. Royal Caribbean Cruises transport the world’s two largest cruise ships to the Greater Fort Lauderdale area. Experts predict that Port Everglades is to become the world’s top cruise port by 2010. For the first time in 2008, Port Everglades surpassed the Port of Miami to become the Ft. Lauderdale Historical Rent & Occupancy No. 1 containerized cargo port in Florida. $18.00 96%
M
Broward County
Florida Retail Report
International Council of Shopping Centers
Market Makers
Ft. Lauderdale Capital Markets Trends $2.70
The Promenade at Coconut Creek Stanbery Development - Coconut Creek 350,000 SF Lifestyle Retail - Phase I Opened 2008
9.0% Rolling 12-Mo Volume (In Billions)
$2.20
8.5%
Average Cap Rate
8.0% $1.70 7.5%
Caligo Crossing Regency Centers - Coconut Creek 108,927 SF Kohl’s Anchored - Open Aug-2008
$1.20 7.0% $0.70
Commercial Boulevard Shoppes The Sembler Company - Lauderhill 63,000 SF Shopping Center - Opened August 2008
6.5%
8 Y M
'0 YE
Y
'0
7
7 '0
6
M
M
YE
'0
6 Y
'0
5 '0 YE
'0 Y M
M
YE
Y
'0
'0
4
5
6.0% 4
$0.20
Source: Real Capital Analytics
Miramar Town Center Kimco Developers, Inc. - Miramar 150,722 SF w/ 24-Hour Fitness Anchored - Opened 2008
College Crossing Stiles Corp. - Davie +/-500,000 SF - Opening Late 2010
Parkland Commons Monroe’s Prestige Group - Parkland 91,126 SF Publix Anchored - Opened Sep-2008
Sheridan Station RAM Real Estate 300,000 SF of Retail in Mixed-Use Project Opening 2011
Coral Landings III Monroe’s Prestige Group - Coral Springs 265,248 SF BestBuy, HomeGoods, ULTA & Petco
London Square Woolbright Development – Miramar 241,000 SF Kohl’s and Staples Anchored - Early 2009
Sheridan Plaza Equity One - Hollywood 103,000 SF Addition Featuring Kohl’s, LA Fitness, Office Depot, Ross & BB&B - Completed 2008 The Shoppes at Southern Palms Panattoni Development - Palm Beach 215,000 SF Kohl’s & Dick’s Anchored - Opening 1Q09 Recent Shopping Center Sales Property (Anchor) Lakes Mall
City
SF
Ft Lauderdale
255,783
(Office Depot) Plantation Marketplace Ft Lauderdale Penn Dutch Plaza Weston Shops
1970/
$9.4
CAP Rate N/A
1992 230,330 1963/
(Winn-Dixie) (Penn Dutch Food)
Year Price Built $Mil
155,628
1999
$22.0
N/A
Ft Lauderdale
99%
Aug.
92%
2008 $12.0
N/A
Beach
(Walgreens)
Nov
2007
Seller UrbanAmerica
Equity One
REH Capital Partners
Aug.
JV DRA Advisors 73%
2007 30,420
Buyer RMS Properties
2008
1998 Pompano
Sale Date Occ.
$16.4
7.3%
Jul
Equity One
REH Capital Partners
JV DRA Advisors 100%
Cole Capital Partners
Weston Shops Ltd
2008
Sales Comps From HFF, L.P. Proprietary Research & Real Capital Analytics
17
2009
Florida Retail Report • Palm Beach rental rates have dropped considerably as the market has seen negative net absorbtion over the last five consecutive quarters • The Palm Beach market’s pipeline is the smallest seen in over 3 years, which should help restore balance to the supply-demand of the market
Local Economy
Palm Beach County is home to prestigious locations Palm Beach County Employment Data MY08 YE08 Change such as Boca Raton, Palm Beach, Jupiter, and Workforce Size 647,215 648,552 0.21% Manalapan. This are is the 3rd most populous county Unemployment Rate 5.4% 7.6% 2.20% in the state, and the 29th most populated county in Source: Florida Research and Economic Database the United States. It is also home to five colleges and universities. There is a metropolis of medical services, recreational opportunities, historic, nature and cultural events that provide opportunities for vacationers and job-seekers alike. This area is home to the second largest fresh water lake in the country. Along with its Atlantic shores, Palm Beach County attracts affluent denizens whose patronage enables retaliers and local businesses to thrive. Large employers that help drive Palm Beach Historical Rent & Occupancy the economy in the area include public $21.00 96.0% schools, health care, local government, $20.50 and hospitality. Another economic driver 95.0% $20.00 is the St. Louis Cardinals and the Florida $19.50 94.0% Marlins baseball teams which conduct $19.00 93.0% their spring training at the Roger Dean $18.50 92.0% Stadium in Jupiter. $18.00 Occupancy
Rental Rate
91.0%
$17.50
8 '0
'0 Y M
YE
8
7 '0 YE
M
Y
'0
7
6 '0
'0 Y M
YE
6
5 '0 YE
5 '0 Y M
'0 YE
'0 Y
4
$17.00 4
90.0% M
Palm Beach
Palm Beach Market Highlights
Neighborhood and Community Center Rental and Occupancy Rates taken from REIS, Inc
Palm Beach Retail Leasing Data Submarket Name Boca Raton Boynton Beach North Palm Beach / Jupiter West Palm Beach
Palm Beach Market Total
Inventory
MY08
Rental Rate YE08 Change
6,741,000 9,941,000 7,208,000 4,451,000
95.8% 90.7% 90.8% 93.7%
95.2% 89.5% 88.8% 93.2%
0.6% 1.2% 2.0% 0.5%
$22.04 $17.07 $20.06 $16.94
$21.94 $16.81 $19.93 $16.88
-0.5% -1.5% -0.6% -0.4%
28,341,000
92.4%
91.3%
1.2%
$18.99
$18.83
-0.8%
Neighborhood and Community Center Rental and Occupancy Rates Source: REIS, Inc.
18
Occupancy Rate MY08 YE08 Change
International Council of Shopping Centers
Market Makers
Palm Beach Capital Markets Trends $1.00
9.0% Rolling 12-Mo Volume (In Billions)
$0.90
Midtown RAM Real Estate 95,000 SF of Retail in Mixed-Use Development Recently Opened
8.5%
Average Cap Rate
$0.80 8.0%
$0.70 $0.60
7.5%
$0.50
Quantum Village Monroe’s Prestige Group - Boynton Beach 93,144 SF Publix Anchored - Shops Open Late 2008
7.0%
$0.40 6.5%
$0.30
8 M
Y
'0
7 '0 YE
7 M
Y
'0
6 '0 YE
6 M
Y
'0
5 '0 YE
'0 Y M
M
YE
Y
'0
'0
4
5
6.0% 4
$0.20
Source: Real Capital Analytics
Whitworth Farms Monroe’s Prestige Group - Boynton Beach 112,375 SF Publix Anchored Wellington Green Commons Schmier & Feurring Properties - Wellington 124,000 SF Whole Foods Anchored - Opened 2008 Boynton Beach Town Center The Sembler Company - Boynton Beach 410,000 SF Target & Best Buy Anchors - Opened 2008 Jupiter Reserve Pebb Enterprises Full Renovation of Woods Plaza Completed Early 2009 The Shoppes at Woolbright Woolbright Development - Boynton Beach 100,000 SF Publix Anchored - Opened late 2008
Recent Shopping Center Sales Property City
SF
Lake Worth
60,390
(Anchor) Town Commons
Year Price Built $Mil 2004
$6.8
CAP Rate N/A
(Publix) Courtyard Shops
Sale Date Occ. Sep
N/A
Buyer
Seller
Kimco Realty
Albertson's
Federal Realty
AEW Capital
2008 West Palm
(Publix)
Beach
Plaza at Delray
Delray
(Publix, Regal, Staples)
Beach
Shoppes at Jupiter
Jupiter
(Cobb Theater, Staples, Bealls)
127,000 1990/
$37.9
N/A
1998 331,496
1974/
$64.8
N/A
$41.1
N/A
2001 197,097
1981
Sep
N/A
2008 Aug
Investment Trust 92%
Heitman Capital Management
Properties
95%
Crimson Capital
Menin Development
2008 Aug
Ramco-Gershenson
2008
Sales Comps From HFF, L.P. Proprietary Research & Real Capital Analytics
19
2009
Florida Retail Report • Whole Foods Opens in Mandarin Landing • Markets at Town Center Opens Before Christmas with Babies’R’Us and Best Buy • HH Gregg Opens First Jacksonville Location in Avenue Walk
Local Economy
Jacksonville is the anchor city of North Florida. Jacksonville MSA Employment Data MY08 YE08 Change Situated on the St. Johns River and the Atlantic Workforce Size 677,617 681,760 0.61% Ocean, Jacksonville’s ideal location has been Unemployment Rate 5.1% 7.0% 1.90% valuable to the local industries and population Source: Florida Research and Economic Database growth. Forbes has ranked Jacksonville 3rd in the top ten United States cities to relocate to find a job. Jacksonville is consistently rated one of the “Hottest Cities in America” for business expansions and relocations in an annual poll featured in Expansion Management Magazine. In addition, Jacksonville was ranked 11th in Inc. magazine’s list of “Best Cities for Doing Business” in 2006. Jacksonville Historical Rent & Occupancy Jacksonville is consistently ranked in top $15.00 10 places to live by Money Magazine. 95.0% $14.00 94.0%
Occupancy Rental Rate
$13.00
93.0%
$12.00
92.0%
8 '0
'0 Y
YE
8
7 '0
Neighborhood and Community Center Rental and Occupancy Rates taken from REIS, Inc
Industries that make significant contributions to Jacksonville’s economy include: distribution, financial services, information services, and manufacturing. An additional source of revenue is the annual Gator Bowl which added an estimated $32 million to the local economy in 2008.
Jacksonville Retail Leasing Data Submarket Name Arlington / Baymeadows / Mandarin Beaches Northside SW Duval / Northern Clay Westside
Jacksonville Market Total
Inventory
Occupancy Rate MY08 YE08 Change
MY08
Rental Rate YE08 Change
8,793,000 3,298,000 3,036,000 4,091,000 2,912,000
92.5% 95.2% 90.6% 92.4% 96.4%
92.1% 92.9% 90.9% 92.0% 96.2%
-0.3% -2.3% 0.3% -0.4% -0.2%
$13.52 $15.10 $10.25 $13.55 $11.85
$13.53 $15.19 $10.20 $13.56 $11.47
0.1% 0.6% -0.5% 0.1% -3.2%
22,130,000
93.1%
92.6%
-0.5%
$13.64
$13.06
-4.3%
Neighborhood and Community Center Rental and Occupancy Rates Source: REIS, Inc.
20
M
M
YE
Y
'0
7
6 YE
M
Y
'0
'0
6
5 '0 YE
5 '0 Y M
'0 YE
'0 Y
4
$11.00 4
91.0% M
Jacksonville
Jacksonville Market Highlights
International Council of Shopping Centers
Market Makers
Jacksonville Capital Markets Trends
Parkway Shops Ramco-Gershenson - Northside 360,000 SF Retail Center Planned Opening 2011
$0.60
9.0%
$0.40
8.0%
The Markets at Town Center Pinehill Markets Operating, LLC - Southside Toys & Babies R US, Best Buy, Golf Galaxy, ULTA Phase I Open, Phase II Opening April 2009
$0.30
7.5%
$0.20
7.0%
$0.10
6.5%
$0.00
6.0%
Rolling 12-Mo Volume (In Billions)
$0.50
8 M
Y
'0
7 YE
'0
7 Y M
'0 YE
Y M
'0
6
6 '0
5 '0 YE
5 M
Y
'0
M
YE
'0
4
4 '0 Y
Oakleaf Town Center Sembler - Southwest Jacksonville 798,068 SF w/ SuperTarget, Home Depot & Kohl’s All Phases Open
8.5%
Average Cap Rate
Source: Real Capital Analytics
Shoppes at Murabella Stiles Corp. / Hallmark Partners - World Golf Village 100,000 SF Publix Anchored - Opening Feb-2009
Palm Coast Landing at the Town Center Weingarten Realty / Developers Realty Corp JV Super Target, Books-A-Million, TJ Maxx, Ross Palm Coast - Recently Opened
Avenues Walk Kimco Developers, Inc. - Jacksonville Southside 600,000 SF Wal-Mart, Forever 21 and HH Gregg Anchored Phase I Opening 1st Quarter 2009 / Phase II Late 2010
Oakleaf Commons Regency Centers - Southwest Jacksonville 73,717 SF Publix Anchored - Opened Early 2008
Beach Village North American Properties - Flagler County 80,000 SF Publix Anchored - Opening Jun 2009
Tapestry Park Joyce Development Co. - Jacksonville Southside 70,000 SF Retail plus Office, Hotel & Townhomes Completed July 2008
Nocatee Town Center Regency Centers - Ponte Vedra 80,572 SF Publix Anchored - Opening Jan 2010 Epic Village at St. Augustine Weingarten Realty / EPIC Theaters JV - St. Augustine 91,521 SF Epic Theater Anchored - Opening June 2009
Mandarin Landing Equity One - Jacksonville 140,000 SF Whole Foods & Office Depot Anchored Opened Late 2008
Jacksonville Beach Publix Publix & WindCrest Development - Jacksonville 34,030 Publix-Anchored - Opened 2008
Recent Shopping Center Sales Property (Anchor) Cobblestone Crossing
City
SF
Jacksonville
93,272
Year Price Built $Mil 1986
$13.9
CAP Rate N/A
(Publix)
St. Johns Plaza
Sep
100%
2008 Jacksonville
71,370
2003
$12.8
N/A
(Winn-Dixie) Lewis Point Plaza
Sale Date Occ.
Dec.
N/A
2007 St. Augustine
(Food Lion)
83,217
2005
$9.5
8.1%
Dec.
N/A
Buyer
Seller
Halberstein
Woolbright
Investments
Development
Invesco Realty
Prudential Real Estate
Advisors
Investors
Ash Properties Inc.
New Craft Inc.
2007
Sales Comps From HFF, L.P. Proprietary Research & Real Capital Analytics
21
2009
22
Southwest Florida Market Highlights • Waterside Shops introduces a new level of upscale retail with opening of Nordstroms, St. Johns, Van Cleef & Arpels, DeBeers Diamonds • Mercato opens on Tamiami Trail and Vanderbilt Beach Blvd with Whole Foods, Books-A-Million, McCormick & Schmicks, & Capital Grill • The City of Ft. Myers intensifies efforts to redevelop its downtonw “River District” by engaging a public-private partnership and improving the downtown streetscape
Local Economy
Ft. Myers is a located in the Southwestern part of Ft. Myers / Cape Coral MSA Employment Data MY08 YE08 Change Florida and is the present spring training home for Workforce Size 283,296 284,036 0.26% the Boston Red Sox and the Minnesota Twins. As of Unemployment Rate 7.1% 9.8% 2.70% 2008, the Lee County commission has approved an Source: Florida Research and Economic Database agreement with the Boston Red Sox to build a new spring-training facility for the team in south Lee County. The areas of greatest softness in the market are in Bonita Springs where unanchored strips are seeing rent concessions down to the teens Ft. Myers Historical Rent & Occupancy PSF and high vacancy, due to the general $19.00 100% economic softness and the amount of 98% $18.00 space delivered around the Coconut Point 96% and Gulf Coast Town Center. There are $17.00 also unanchored strips in Cape Coral on 94% Pine Island Rd. and on Lee Blvd in Lehigh $16.00 92% that are having similar leasing issues. Occupancy
Rental Rate
$15.00
90%
8 '0
'0 Y M
YE
8
7 '0 YE
M
Y
'0
7
6 '0 YE
M
Y
'0
6
5 '0 YE
'0 YE
'0
4
$14.00 3
88% YE
Ft. Myers / Cape Coral
Florida Retail Report
Neighborhood and Community Center Rental and Occupancy Rates taken from REIS, Inc
Ft. Myers / Cape Coral Retail Leasing Data Submarket Name
Inventory
Occupancy YE08
Rental Rate YE08
Cape Coral City of Ft. Myers Estero Lehigh North Ft. Myers South Ft. Myers / San Carlow The Islands
4,712,000 2,601,000 1,306,000 659,000 1,584,000 7,829,000 452,000
92.4% 87.5% 80.4% 93.8% 90.9% 92.4% 99.6%
$19.31 $11.58 $20.81 $15.90 $12.64 $20.45 N/A
Ft. Myers Market Total
19,143,000
91.0%
$17.70
Shopping Center & Power Center Rental Rates and Occupancy Rates Source: CoStar Property
International Council of Shopping Centers
Market Makers
Southwest Florida Capital Markets Trends
Plaza Venezia Michael Collard Properties - Venice 77,000 SF Grocery-Anchored Breaking Ground Nov-09
$0.80
8.5%
$0.60
7.5%
The Forum North American Properties - Ft. Myers 480,000 SF Anchored by Target, Home Depot, Ross, Best Buy, BB&B, Staples, Books-A-Million & Petco - Open
$0.50
7.0%
$0.40
6.5%
$0.30
6.0%
$0.20
5.5%
Rolling 12-Mo Volume (In Billions)
$0.70
8 M
Y
'0 YE
M
'0
7
7 Y
'0 YE
Y M
'0
6
6 '0
5 '0 YE
5 M
Y
'0 YE
'0
4
4 '0 M
Y
Northpoint Shopping Center North American Properties - Cape Coral 110,000 SF Circuit City & PetsMart - Open
8.0%
Average Cap Rate
Source: Real Capital Analytics
Alico Commons Pelican Bay Development - Ft. Myers 97,663 SF Publix & Office Depot Anchor - Opening Feb-10 The Great LOOP Southwest The Wilder Companies - Punta Gorda 1.2 Million SF Mixed-Use & Retail - Opening 2011
Alico Lakes Village Strathmore Development - Estero 300,000 SF Ashley Furniture & City Furniture Anchored Phase I Opened, Phase II Opening Early 2009 Plaza at Island Pass Desco Group - San Carlos 232,620 SF Super Target Anchored Center Opens Summer 2008
Estero Crossings The Wilder Companies - Estero 310,000 SF Open-Air Retail Planned
Bell Tower Shops Madison Marquette - Ft. Myers 350,000 SF Saks, Regal Cinema, Fresh Market, Ulta, BB&B Renovation Completed 2009
Brooks Town Center Courtelis Company - Eserto 80,000 SF Sweetbay Anchored Opened Summer 2008
First Street Village Regency Centers - Ft. Myers 88,026 SF Publix Anchored - Planned
Recent Shopping Center Sales Property (Anchor) Gulf Coast Plaza
City
SF
Cape Coral
71,051
Year Price Built $Mil 1965
$9.0
CAP Rate N/A
(Publix)
Jun.
100%
2008
Coral Walk
Cape Coral
300,000
2007
$127.0
N/A
(Super Target) Sunshine Shopping Plaza
Sale Date Occ.
June
Buyer Shops at Cape Coral Parkway
N/A
Cole Capital Partners
North American
99%
DeBartolo Dev JV
Dalfen America Corp
2008 Lehigh Acres
(Winn-Dixie)
111,333
1966/ 1997
$8.9
N/A
Jan. 2008
Seller Southside Properties
Properties Forge Realty Group
Sales Comps From HFF, L.P. Proprietary Research & Real Capital Analytics
23
2009
Florida Retail Report Naples Employment Data MY08
Naples is one of Florida’s best sandboxes. The lure Workforce Size 150,325 of the sun and fun activities have helped make the Unemployment Rate 5.7% Naples economy largely based on tourism. Some of Source: Florida Research and Economic Database the visitor favorites include Marco Island and the Everglades. These attractions Naples Historical Rent & Occupancy make the city a popular vacation area 99% known as the Paradise Coast. CNN and 97% Money Magazine have both recognized 95% Collier County as one of the top five “Best places for a long life in the United States.” 93% There are more than 80 championship 91% golf courses in the Naples area. Major 89% employers for the area include health care 87% services and national law firms.
YE08
Change
151,269
0.62%
8.0%
2.30%
$26.00
Occupancy
$24.00
$22.00
$20.00
$18.00
8 '0 YE
Y
'0
8
7
$16.00 M
M
YE
Y
'0
'0
7
6
'0
'0 Y M
YE
6
5
YE
'0
4
'0 YE
'0
3
Rental Rate
YE
Naples
Naples Economy
Neighborhood and Community Center Rental and Occupancy Rates taken from REIS, Inc
Naples Retail Leasing Data Submarket Name Bonita Springs East Naples Golden Gate Lely Marco Island Naples North Naples Outlying Collier County
Ft. Myers Market Total
Inventory
Occupancy YE08
Rental Rate YE08
2,311,000 1,964,000 527,000 430,000 775,000 535,000 6,982,000 657,000
86.8% 94.2% 99.1% 87.9% 96.0% 90.7% 92.4% 96.0%
$18.34 $17.00 $20.85 $19.64 $22.24 $17.65 $26.73 $13.04
14,181,000
92.1%
$22.36
Shopping Center & Power Center Rental Rates and Occupancy Rates Source: CoStar Property
Market Makers
The Mercato Barron Collier Company - Lutgert 375,000 SF Mixed Use Anchored by Whole Foods Books-A-Million, Sur La Table Brooks Village The Sembler Company - East Naples 101.535 SF Publix Anchored - Opening June-09
Publix at Ave Maria Courtelis Company JV Barron Collier Company 36,000 SF Publix Anchored Expansion Opening Fall 2009 Bonita Exchange Strathmore Development Company 175,000 SF Home Depot Shadow-Anchor Delivering 2nd Half 2009
Recent Shopping Center Sales Property City
SF
The Promenade of Naples Centre
Naples
165,000
Naples Walk (Publix)
Naples
(Anchor)
Sales Comps From HFF, L.P. Proprietary Research & Real Capital Analytics
24
125,490
Year Price Built $Mil
CAP Rate
Sale Date Occ.
Buyer
Seller
2007
$48.5
N/A
May 2008
98%
GLL Real Estate Partners
Sembler Co.
1999
$33.1
5.7%
Jul. 2007
N/A
Regency Centers
North American Properties
Sarasota Economy
Sarasota/Bradenton
International Council of Shopping Centers
Sarasota Employment Data MY08
YE08
Change
Located south of the Bay Area, Sarasota/Bradenton is Workforce Size 329,131 330,786 0.50% full of development and retail potential. The national Unemployment Rate 5.8% 8.0% 2.20% media have ranked this area as one of the best places Source: Florida Research and Economic Database in America to live and work due to its consistent job and population growth. Tourism remains the biggest economic sector in the area. Situated along the Gulf of Mexico, the area is surrounded by both fresh and saltwater. The Eastern side of Bradenton is growing at a rapid rate. Initially starting as the popular subdivision Lakewood Ranch, it is now becoming a heavily populated part of town. The region has earned many accolades such as being named one of the “hottest major metro areas for jobs” by American Business Journals.
Market Makers
Prime Outlets Prime Retail - Ellenton 135,000 SF “Main Street” Expansion Neiman Marcus Last Call Anchored - Opens 2010
Southwood Shops Southern Management & Development New 39,079 SF Sweetbay & Redevelopment Completed Aug-2008 Park Place Benderson Development - Bradenton 254,500 SF Kohl’s & Fresh Market - Opened 2008 Publix at Beeridge North American Properties 58,000 SF Publix Anchored - Opening Summer 2009 Heron Creek Place The Sembler Company - North Port 280,000 SF Retail Opening Fall 2009
Paley Place The Sembler Company - Bradenton 59,800 SF Publix Anchored Opening Spring 2010 River Club CASTO - Bradenton 235,000 SF Big-Box Anchored Opening 2009 / 2010
University Town Center Phase II Benderson Development - Sarasota 1.8 Million SF - Nordstrom & Muvico Mixed Use w/ Office, Hotel, & Convention
Recent Shopping Center Sales Property (Anchor) Town Plaza
City
SF
Longboat Key
79,480
Year Price Built $Mil 1980
$14.0
CAP Rate N/A
(Publix) Manatee Town Center
Sale Date Occ. Sep
N/A
Buyer Avenue of Flowers
Dead River
Joseph Mogel
Manatee Town
2008 Bradenton
(Sweetbay)
80,013
1990
$10.3
6.6%
Jan 2008
Seller Properties
100%
Center LLC
Sales Comps From HFF, L.P. Proprietary Research & Real Capital Analytics
25
2009
The Panhandle
Florida Retail Report Market Makers
Panama City MSA Employment Data
Publix at South Walton WindCrest Development Group - Walton County 57,300 SF Publix Anchored - Opening Late 2009
Workforce Size Unemployment Rate
MY08
YE08
Change
86,719
87,071
0.40%
4.5%
7.4%
2.90%
Source: Florida Research and Economic Database
Pensacola MSA Employment Data
Destin Commons Turnberry - Destin Recently Opened
Workforce Size Unemployment Rate
MY08
YE08
Change
212,515
214,818
1.07%
4.9%
6.7%
1.80%
Source: Florida Research and Economic Database
Santa Rosa Commons Mpirical Development - Pace Target, Publix, PetsMart & TJ Maxx Anchored Opened Summer 2008
Okaloosa County Employment Data Workforce Size Unemployment Rate
MY08
YE08
Change
99,018
97,891
-1.15%
3.8%
5.4%
1.60%
Source: Florida Research and Economic Database
Bellview Shopping Center Kimco Realty Corp. - Pensacola 156,150 SF Publix Anchored - Opened 2008
Walton County Employment Data Workforce Size Unemployment Rate
University Mall Simon Properties - Pensacola Redevelopment into Lifestyle Center Construction Underway
MY08
YE08
Change
35,606
33,941
-4.91%
3.3%
5.0%
1.70%
Source: Florida Research and Economic Database
Recent Shopping Center Sales Property (Anchor)
City
SF
Riley Place
Milton
65,650
Year Price Built $Mil
CAP Rate
1990
$6.7
N/A
1968
$5.8
7.9%
(Winn-Dixie, Best Buy) Mariner Plaza
Oct
Buyer
Seller
96%
Flag Warf
River City Capital
100%
JW Mariner Corp
Tarragon Corp.
2008 Panama City
(Unanchored Sales Comps From HFF, L.P. Proprietary Research & Real Capital Analytics
26
Sale Date Occ.
54,027
Sep 2008
International Council of Shopping Centers
Tallahassee Economy
MY08
YE08
Change
The Tallahassee economy has experienced a smaller Workforce Size 185,465 189,958 2.37% scale of downturn compared to larger areas in Florida. Unemployment Rate 4.1% 5.5% 1.40% The Tallahassee Board of Realtors has stated that, Source: Florida Research and Economic Database “because the area did not see a huge climb in property appreciation, the fall was not as hard, when comparing to other markets.” Florida’s capital city is home to state and local government agencies which offer steady employment to local residents. Florida State University, Florida Agricultural and Mechanical University, and Tallahassee Community College are also major employers in the area. Inc. magazine has ranked Tallahassee among the “Best Small Metro Areas to start and grow a business.” The fastest growing business sectors are telecommunications, computer hardware vendors, software developers, and trade associations. Another reason to relocate to Tallahassee and start a business is due to Newsweek Magazine’s ranking of the Top 1000 Schools for 2006, which lists 4 of Leon County’s 5 public high schools in the top 200 in the United States. Tallahassee is also experiencing national attention due to university-related development. Tallahassee’s Innovation Park is located on 208 acres near the capital and nestled between Florida State University and Florida A&M University. The research park was established for the technology industry and government scientists. The National High Magnetic Field Laboratory, which holds the largest and highest-powered magnet laboratory in the world and located in Innovation Park, was featured in the December 2008 issue of US Airways Magazine. Tallahassee Retail Leasing Data Submarket Name Northeast Southeast Central Northwest Southwest South
Tallahassee Market Total
Inventory
Occupancy Rate 2007 2008 Change
2007
Rental Rate 2008 Change
1,417,655 1,171,248 544,442 265,509 369,459 344,248
91.5% 89.0% 96.6% 79.5% 100.0% 90.6%
93.1% 86.8% 94.5% 78.7% 93.6% 94.5%
1.6% -2.2% -2.1% -0.8% -6.4% 3.9%
$19.27 $17.56 $12.00 $12.20 $16.38 $13.50
$18.04 $17.10 $12.25 $12.88 $17.75 $12.50
-6.4% -2.6% 2.1% 5.6% 8.4% -7.4%
4,112,561
91.4%
90.7%
-0.7%
$16.62
$16.18
-2.6%
Source: Southland Commercial Year End Retail Survey
Market Makers
Fallschase AIG Baker Development 750,000 SF Featuring Wal-Mart & Costco
Tallahassee
Tallahassee Employment Data
The Pinnacle at Cross Creek Colonial Properties 900,000 SF Lifestyle Center Anchored by Department Store & Movie Theater
Southwood Marketplace The Sembler Company 460,000 SF w/ Discount Dept Store & Lowe’s Planned July 2011 Opening 27
2009
Florida Retail Report
The Villages
The Villages Economy
28
The Villages is the largest single site residential development in the United States, spanning over 26,000 acres in adjoining Sumter, Lake, and Marion counties. Home to more than 75,000 residents, The Villages has a projected build out of more than 107,000 residents by the year 2014. The Villages exemplifies the “Live, Work, Play” environment in which all of life’s necessities and amenities are available within the community. The Villages attracts affluent retirees and active adults looking for a lifestyle, not just a home. Life in The Villages centers around an active schedule and golf cart access. More than 80% of surveyed residents own a golf cart and use it daily while 60% participate weekly in more than 1,600 clubs and recreational sports teams. In a recent Forbes.com article, The Villages was named a ‘retail safe haven’ amidst the national home building crisis, attributing the community’s success to the recession proof income of its residents. In 2008, The Census Bureau ranked The Villages as the fastest growing micropolitan area in the nation. New home sales surged in 2007 while foreclosure activity remained at a mere 0.05%. Despite the national economic downturn, The Villages experienced 13.5% residential growth from 2007 through 2008. Combined with the average household income exceeding $94,000, The Villages is one of the hottest retail markets in the nation. The Villages’ retail market includes 3.7 million SF of commercial buildings, including two town centers with over 800,000 SF of retail space. A third town center, Brownwood, consisting of 350,000 SF, and Bellaire power center, consisting of 850,000 SF, is currently under development. Villages’ residents are dedicated to supporting business and community growth and have quickly helped the area become the retail destination for the greater tri-county area.
Market Makers
Lake Sumter Landing Crossman & Company - The Villages 510,555 SF w/ New Sweetbay Anchor
Colony Plaza Sembler - The Villages 130,515 SF Publix Anchored Center
Spanish Springs Crossman & Company - The Villages 375,455 SF Town Center
Lady Lake Crossing The Benchmark Group - Lady Lake 130,000 SF Kohl’s Anchored - Opened 2008
Buffalo Ridge Crossman & Company - The Villages 1.2 Million SF Anchored by Wal-Mart Beall’s & Fresh Market Opening Late 2008
Brownwood Crossman & Company - The Villages 350,000 SF Planned Town Center
Village Crossroads The Benchmark Group - Lady Lake 160,000 SF - Best Buy, JoAnn, PetsMart, BB&B Recently Open
Bellaire Crossman & Company - The Villages 500,000 SF Planned Power Center
International Council of Shopping Centers
Ocala Economy
Ocala Employment Data MY08
YE08
Change
Major employers in the area include Munroe Regional Medical Center, Wal-Mart, Publix Super Markets, and Ocala Regional Medical Center & West Marion Community Hospital. Both of Ocala’s premier hospitals, Munroe Regional Medical Center and Ocala Regional Medical Center, were nationally recognized by HCIASachs as recipients of the 100 Top Hospitals Award for 2003 and 2004.
Market Makers
Market Street at Heath Brook United American Realty - Ocala 684,000 SF Dillard’s, Old Navy, ULTA, Dick’s, Barnes Recently Opened Canopy Oak Center Regency Centers - Ocala 90,040 SF Publix Anchored - Opened Late ‘08 Berkshire Oaks Berkshire Development - Ocala 255,000 SF Kohl’s, HH Gregg, PetCo Anchored Breaking Ground Early 2009
Shops at Stoneybrook Hills WindCrest Development - Mt Dora 67,000 SF Publix Anchor Opening Sep-09 Loch Leven Landing Morse Properties - Mt Dora 160,000 SF Publix Anchor - Breaking Ground 2009
Ocala
Ocala’s local economy has grown over the years due Workforce Size 138,270 140,597 1.66% to the access in resources in neighboring cities, like Unemployment Rate 6.7% 9.7% 3.00% Orlando, Tampa, and Jacksonville. Residents have a Source: Florida Research and Economic Database choice to be in town or in the country, either of which are never far from health care, churches, shopping centers, or schools. This diverse county has supported an economy that has total retail sales over $3.55 billion.
Shops at Foxwood Michael Collard Properties - Ocala 120,000 SF Grocery-Anchored - Starting June 2009
Recent Shopping Center Sales Property (Anchor)
City
SF
Quail Meadow
Ocala
50,788
Commons
CAP Rate
1997
$5.9
6.8%
2002
$12.7
N/A
(Publix)
Heathbrook Commons
Year Price Built $Mil
Sale Date Occ. Jun
Buyer
Seller
100%
Victory Real Estate
MHP Retail Centers
100%
Invesco Realty
Strategic Realty
Advisors
Advisors
2008 Ocala
(Publix)
79,550
Dec. 2007
Sales Comps From HFF, L.P. Proprietary Research & Real Capital Analytics
29
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For questions, comments or to request additional copies of the report please contact Justin Greider at
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The information in this report, including all charts, graphs, photos and data is believed to be accurate and complete and is not warranted by HFF, L.P., Crossman & Company, any of the contributors, or any of their affiliates.