Click to edit Master title style

Feeding a growing population: How can China and India contribute to global food security? Shenggen Fan Director General | International Food Policy Research Institute

Natural Resources in Demand Symposium Adelaide | October 11, 2012 Shenggen Fan, October 2012

China/India global security Click to editand Master titlefood style  Increasing challenges facing global and China/India’s food security  China and India play significant role in global food security  Opportunities exist for policies in China and India to improve global food security

Shenggen Fan, October 2012

50+ countries have serious / alarming / Click to edit Master title style extremely alarming levels of hunger 2012 Global Hunger Index GHI components: •Proportion of undernourished •Prevalence of underweight in children •Under-five mortality rate

Shenggen Fan, October 2012

Source: von Grebmer et al. 2012

China and India: many remain hungry Click to edit Master title style despite rapid progress Prevalence of undernourishment (% of population), 2006-2008

INDIA

19%

CHINA

10%

225 million

130 million

Indian people are undernourished

Chinese people are undernourished

Shenggen Fan, October 2012

Source: FAO 2012

China and India: risingtitle overweight Click to edit Master style and obesity Prevalence of overweight and obesity (%), male and female, age 15-100 60

40 India China 20

0 2002 Shenggen Fan, October 2012

2005

2010

2015 Source: WHO Global Infobase 2012

Trends global andstyle China/India’s Click toaffecting edit Master title food security

 Population growth and shifting demographics  Strong economic growth and diet changes  Natural resource constraints

 Climate change

Shenggen Fan, October 2012

Population growth and shifting Click to edit Master title style demographics…. Population 1970-2050 (millions)

China

2000

India

2000

1500

1500

1000

1000

URBAN URBAN

500

500

RURAL 0 1970

1990

RURAL

2010

2030

2050

0 1970

1990

2010

2030

2050

--- Urban population exceeds rural population

Currently, about half and one-third of China and India’s populations live in urban areas Source: FAO 2012

Shenggen Fan, October 2012

China and India: futuretitle economic Click to edit Master style growth strong but slower pace Forecasts of GDP growth through 2025 (%) 10

9

8.4

8 5.7

6 4

5.6

3.8 2.8

Low Average High

2 0 China

India Source: RAND 2011

How to make economic growth more green and encourage sustainable growth patters? Shenggen Fan, October 2012

Click to editgrowing Mastermiddle title style …alongside class Income Distribution China Cumulative percent of population

Cumulative percent of population

India

Annual income (2005 PPP$, log scale)

Shenggen Fan, October 2012

Annual income (2005 PPP$, log scale)

Larger and wealthier population will demand more and better food

Source: OECD 2010

Would reduction in meat consumption in richer countries Click to edit Master style Economic growth andtitle meat consumption improve food security in developing countries?

www.ifpri.org Shenggen Fan, October 2012

Source: Rosegrant Page2012 7

Growing resource Click to natural edit Master title scarcities style Global loss of annual net primary productivity, 1981-2003 (due to degradation)

Peak phosphorus?

Source: Cordell et al. 2009

Source: Bai et al. 2007 (LADA, FAO/ISRIC)

Physical and economic water scarcity

With “business as usual,” high water stress by 2050 puts at risk globally:

Shenggen Fan, October 2012

Source: IWMI 2007

•

52% of population

•

49% of grain production

•

45% of GDP

Source: Veolia Water and IFPRI 2011

Widespread land and water scarcity in Click to edit Master title style China and India

Source: UN SOLAW 2012

Shenggen Fan, October 2012

High to climate change in Clickvulnerability to edit Master title style Asia

Overall vulnerability: Physical impacts adjusted for coping ability

Direct risks: Physical climate impacts • • •

Extreme Weather Sea Level Rise Agricultural Productivity Loss Shenggen Fan, October 2012

Source: Wheeler 2011

Climate impact agriculture Click to change edit Master titleon style

Rainfed maize, 2080

Total global production: -37.3%

Irrigated wheat, 2080

Shenggen Fan, October 2012

Total global production: -28.8%

Source: IFPRI 2011

Click to edit Master title style

China and India’s role in global food security and price volatility

Shenggen Fan, October 2012

China and India play large Click to edit Master title role stylein global food security

LARGE:  Consumers of food  Producers of food

 Traders of food  Contributors of FDI Shenggen Fan, October 2012

Click share to editinMaster Large globaltitle foodstyle consumption Share of global food consumption, 2009 (%) 60

India

China

40

20

0

Certain crops are increasingly being diverted from food to biofuel feedstock, e.g. maize, oil crops, and sugar crops Shenggen Fan, October 2012

Source: FAO 2012

Large share globaltitle food supply Click to edit in Master style Share of global production, 2011 (%)

Share of global stocks, 2012 (%) 80

60

60 40

40 20 20

0

0

Maize

Oil Crops

Maize

Rice Wheat

India Shenggen Fan, October 2012

Rice

Wheat

China Source: FAO 2012

Click to in Growth edit exports Masterand titleimports style Share of global food and raw agricultural trade (%)

Imports

Exports

10

5

8

4

6

3

China India

4

2

2

1

0

0

1995 1999 2003 2007 2011

Shenggen Fan, October 2012

China India

1995 1999 2003 2007 2011

Source: UNCTAD 2012

Increasing in global FDI Click to editrole Master title style FDI flows, US$ billions

 Provide cushion for developing countries during crisis

160

India

China

120 US$, billion

Can:

 Promote technologies and business practices more suitable for developing country markets

80

40

0 2000

2005 Outward

2011

2000

2005

2011

Inward Source: UNCTAD 2012

Shenggen Fan, October 2012

Click to edit Master title style

Opportunities for China and India to play a positive role in global food security

Shenggen Fan, October 2012

1. Improve China and India’s food security Click to edit Master title style  Expand agricultural productivity • •

Increase agricultural R&D Facilitate access to productive assets, inputs, & services

 Promote climate-smart agriculture •

Support “triple win” (adaptation/mitigation/productivity) potential of agriculture

 Increase market linkages •

Improve infrastructure, information technologies, and vertical coordination

 Invest in productive social protection programs •

Explore new approaches (e.g. cross-sectoral) to secure basic livelihoods and protect from risk

Shenggen Fan, October 2012

2. Promote mutually Click to edit Masterbeneficial title styletrade China-Africa trade

 Eliminate harmful trade restriction

 Prevent resource exploitation and Dutchdisease effects on agricultural sector

Source: Renaissance Capital and Afrographique.tumblr.com

Shenggen Fan, October 2012

 Develop capacity of developing countries to export more agricultural and value-added products

3. Increase pro-poor Click to edit Master FDI title style  Increase focus of FDI on: • Agricultural and rural development • Diversified and higher value-added sectors • Linking producers with markets, e.g. rural infrastructure

 Explore new approaches for (public-private) partnerships

 Promote corporate social responsibility • Stronger linkages with domestic markets • Greater engagement of local workforce • Adoption of higher environmental standards Shenggen Fan, October 2012

4. Support mutual learning of experiences Click to edit Master title style  Development experiences of emerging countries--such as China and India--more accurately reflect current geo-economic and political landscape  Offer examples of alternative channels to Washington Consensus and its successors • Broad-based agriculture-led development Services • Pragmatic and evolutionary trial-and-error approach Manufacture Agriculture Shenggen Fan, October 2012

Source: Gulati and Fan 2007

5. Improve coordination between China, Click to edit Master title style India, and other donors  Competition is good for business? • Major consequences for bargaining power of recipient states → alternative sources of financing

 Engage emerging donors in dialogue at multilateral, regional, and sectoral levels • Promote greater transparency and cooperation through inclusive process to set common standards in aid system • Share key experiences on what has and has not worked • Use existing and new institutional structures Shenggen Fan, October 2012

Australia has Master an activetitle rolestyle to play Click to edit  Australia has long played an active role in advancing global food and nutrition security, e.g. • AusAID, ACIAR, ANU… • Sir John Crawford—served as an architect of the CGIAR and first-ever board chairman of IFPRI

 Exploit large knowledge-base • Capacity building and knowledge sharing with developing countries

 Engage in broader, innovative, and productive partnerships Shenggen Fan, October 2012

Opportunities to enhance Australia’s role in Click to edit Master title style global food security

Triangular cooperation with emerging economies to complement each other’s strengths • Provide financial resources alongside lessons and advice

• Overcome constraints of South-South and North-South cooperation • Needs to be long-term, demand driven

Shenggen Fan, October 2012

Source: CCI-EIA 2012