Features of Natural Disaster Risk Hirokazu Tatano Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University Economics of Natural Disaster, April 16, 2008
Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University
Economics of Natural Disaster, April 16, 2008
Contents
Natural Disaster in the World Natural Disaster in Japan Features of Natural Disaster Risk How can we deal with this risk?: HFA
Hirokazu Tatano
Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University
Economics of Natural Disaster, April 16, 2008
Great Natural Disasters in the World
Source: Munich RE. 2005
Hirokazu Tatano
Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University
Economics of Natural Disaster, April 16, 2008
Economic losses and insured losses with trend
Source: Munich RE. 2005
Hirokazu Tatano
Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University
Economics of Natural Disaster, April 16, 2008
Trend of Natural Disaster in the world
Larger catastrophic disaster is more likely to occur.
Economic losses glowed in high rate
Number of Disaster for which some international aid is executed. 60s：90s=1:3 60s：90s= 1:9
Insured losses increased in higher rate
Anti-catastrophe insurance available in highincome countries 60s：90s =1：16 Hirokazu Tatano
Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University
Economics of Natural Disaster, April 16, 2008
What is happening?
Increase in exposure :
Population and assets are concentrating to hazardous area
Vulnerability : Population and
assets have not enough resistance against natural hazards Hirokazu Tatano
Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University
Economics of Natural Disaster, April 16, 2008
Natural Hazard →Disaster Consequences of Human Behavior Vulnerability: degree of resistance of the asset & population against disaster Population & Asset Exposure：population and asset exposed to the threat of natural hazards
Hazard: Flood, Earthquakes,etc Hirokazu Tatano
Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University
Economics of Natural Disaster, April 16, 2008
Urban population is dominating in the world
http://www.faculty.fairfield.edu/faculty/hodgson/Courses/so11/population/urbanization.htm
Hirokazu Tatano
Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University
Economics of Natural Disaster, April 16, 2008
Higher vulnerability in less income countries
Large natural disasters over period 1980- 2005 Source: Munich Re. 2005
Hirokazu Tatano
Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University
Economics of Natural Disaster, April 16, 2008
Proactive Counter Measures of Disaster Risk Management RRisiskk AAvo e nntio void idaannccee/P /Pre revve tionn RRisiskk CCoonntro trol l A ctio n s tak en b efo re catastro p h ic ev en ts as to p rev en t/red u ce (d irect) lo sses
¾¾LLan andd uuse se RReg eguulatio lationn
M Mitig itigaatio tionnss
¾¾BBuuild ildiningg co coddee ¾¾HHigighh-T -Tech ech. .In Instru strummen ents: ts: (A ctu ato r, d u m p er, etc) (A ctu ato r, d u m p er, etc)
Benefit of Mitigation can be different. It depends on the possibility of risk transfer [ Kobayashi & Yokomastu 2000].
RRisiskk TTra rannssfe ferr
¾¾In Insu suran rance ce ¾¾AARRTT, ,CCat-B at-Boonndd
R R is in R is in Ris iskkkkFFFFin inaaaannnncccceeee A ctio n s tak en b efo re catastro p h ic ev en ts as to p rep are fu n d s fo r reco v ery p ro cess
RRisiskk AAcccceeppta tannccee
¾¾BBuuild ildiningg RRisk isk RReserv eservee ¾¾SSelf-In elf-Insu suran rance, ce,CCap aptiv tivee FFininite, ite,etc etc
Needs for integration Combination of Risk control and financing measure is important! Hirokazu Tatano
Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University
Economics of Natural Disaster, April 16, 2008
Smaller insurance coverage natural disaster losses in lower income countries
Large natural disasters over period 1980- 1999 Source: Munich Re. 2003
Hirokazu Tatano
Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University
Economics of Natural Disaster, April 16, 2008
Proactive risk financing is less used in developing countries
Source: Warner 2005. Hirokazu Tatano
Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University
Economics of Natural Disaster, April 16, 2008
Current and ideal disaster risk management counter measures in developing countries
Source: Warner 2005.
Hirokazu Tatano
Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University
Economics of Natural Disaster, April 16, 2008
Observations and Issues
Disaster related losses are increasing in the world. Less developed countries are more vulnerable and have less insurance coverage. Proactive disaster risk management is ideal but difficult in practice in developing countries. How can we overcome such problems?
Hirokazu Tatano
Natural Disasters in Japan A Natural disaster-prone country
Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University
Economics of Natural Disaster, April 16, 2008
JAPAN: A Disaster-Prone Country • Japan covers only 0.25% of the land area on the grove, the number of earthquakes and distribution of active volcanoes is quite high. • 20% of earthquakes with magnitude of 6.0 or larger were occurred in Japan. • 10% of active volcanoes is located in Japan. Number of active volcanoes
Number of earthquakes with magnitude of 6.0 or larger
Japan, 95, 21%
Japan, 96, 11%
Other, 743, 89%
Other, 359, 79% Hirokazu Tatano
Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University
Economics of Natural Disaster, April 16, 2008
Epicenters of Earthquakes which were magnitude 4.0 or above from 1980 to 1996
International Seismological Centre
Hirokazu Tatano
Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University
Economics of Natural Disaster, April 16, 2008
The Number of Deaths and Missing in Natural Disasters in Japan Tonankai quake
Hanshin-Awaji earthquake Fukui quake
Typhoon Ise-wan
Weather Related Disasters
Hirokazu Tatano
Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University
Economics of Natural Disaster, April 16, 2008
Amount of Damage of Facilities due to Disasters (billion Yen)
Percentage in the GDP
Annual Damage
Percentage in the GDP
Amount of Damage of Facilities
Hirokazu Tatano
Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University
Economics of Natural Disaster, April 16, 2008
Disaster Relief Act (1947) Large Earthquakes struck Japan during 1940s. 1943 Tottori Earthquake
1,083
1944 Tohnankai Earthquake
1,223
1945 Mikawa Earthquake
2,306
1945 Typhoon Makurazaki
3,756
1946 Nankai Earthquake
1,443
Government’s relief policy was established
Hirokazu Tatano
Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University
Economics of Natural Disaster, April 16, 2008
Large scale flood disasters frequently happened from 1930s to 1950s. Year-Mon.
Cause
Death
Missing
Causality
1934.9
Muroto Typhoon Makurazaki Typhoon Catharine Typhoon Toyamaru Typhoon Isewan Typhoon
2702
334
14994
2473
1283
2452
1077
853
1547
1361
400
1601
4697
401
38921
1945.9 1947.9 1954.9 1959.9
http://www.ffortune.net/social/seso/nihon-mei/muroto-taihu.htm Hirokazu Tatano
Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University
Economics of Natural Disaster, April 16, 2008
High Tide Disaster by Isewan Typhoon in 1959
http://www12.freeweb.ne.jp/photo/ajapskwn/saigai/p02.html Hirokazu Tatano
Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University
Economics of Natural Disaster, April 16, 2008
Disaster Management Policy
Needs for change of the policy from reactive to proactive approach. In 1961, the Disaster Countermeasure Basic Act was legislated.
Hirokazu Tatano
Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University
Economics of Natural Disaster, April 16, 2008
Disaster Countermeasure Basic Act (1961)
The immense damage caused by the Typhoon Ise-wan in 1959 was a turning point for disaster management, giving rise to a movement to plan and prepare a comprehensive disaster management system, and in 1961, the Disaster Countermeasures Basic Act was enacted. Thereafter, the disaster management system has been improved and strengthened following the occurrence of large natural disasters and accidents.
Hirokazu Tatano
Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University
Economics of Natural Disaster, April 16, 2008
Change in Disaster Management Related Budget
Hirokazu Tatano
Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University
Economics of Natural Disaster, April 16, 2008
Changes in Disaster Management Budget by Category Classification
Hirokazu Tatano
Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University
Economics of Natural Disaster, April 16, 2008
Regional Disaster Prevention Plan
Triggered by Isewan disaster and enforced. Every level of public sectors shall have a plan by disaster prevention basic act (legal duty). A plan shall include long-term establishment plan on (1) forecasting system, (2) facilities for flood fighting, (3) warning criteria, (4) rescue system, and (5) communications in emergency. Hirokazu Tatano
Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University
Economics of Natural Disaster, April 16, 2008
The Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake, 1995 Effective Disaster Response is required. Rapid Response, Information systems, Crisis Management, etc
Hirokazu Tatano
Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University
Economics of Natural Disaster, April 16, 2008
Disaster Management Systems
Organizational Change in the National Government
At the time of the reorganization of the Central Government in 2001, the Cabinet Office undertook the administrative duties for disaster management. The Director-General for Disaster Management is mandated to undertake basic policy making and planning, coordinate the activities of all ministries and agencies and respond to large-scale disasters. In addition, the position“Minister of State for Disaster Management” was newly established as the Minister State for Special Missions.
Disaster Information Systems
Disaster Management Related Communication Network
Etc. Hirokazu Tatano
Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University
Economics of Natural Disaster, April 16, 2008
Disaster Management Radio Communications System
Hirokazu Tatano
Trend of Natural Disaster in the world Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University
Larger catastrophic disaster is more likely to occur.
Number of Disaster for which International Aid is executed. 60‘s：90’s=１：３
Economic losses glowed in high rate
Economics of Natural Disaster, April 16, 2008
60‘s：90’s= １：９
Insured losses increased in higher rate
Anti-catastrophe insurance available in advanced countries 60‘s：90’s =１：16 Hirokazu Tatano
Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University
Economics of Natural Disaster, April 16, 2008
What is happening?
Increase in exposure :
Population and assets are concentrating to hazardous area
Vulnerability : Population and
assets have not enough resistance against natural hazards Hirokazu Tatano
Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University
Economics of Natural Disaster, April 16, 2008
Natural Hazard →Disaster Consequences of Human Behavior Vulnerability: degree of resistance of the asset & population against disaster Population & Asset Exposure：population and asset exposed to the threat of natural hazards
Hazard: Flood, Earthquakes,etc Hirokazu Tatano
Counter Measures of Disaster Risk Management
Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University
Risk Risk Avoidance/Prevention Avoidance/Prevention Risk Risk Control Control Actions taken before catastrophic events as to prevent/reduce (direct) losses
¾Land ¾Landuse useRegulation Regulation
Mitigations Mitigations
¾Building ¾Buildingcode code ¾High-Tech. ¾High-Tech.Instruments: Instruments: (Actuator, dumper, (Actuator, dumper,etc) etc)
Economics of Natural Disaster, April 16, 2008
Benefit of Mitigation can be different. It depends on the possibility of risk transfer [ Kobayashi & Yokomastu 2000].
Risk Risk Transfer Transfer
¾Insurance ¾Insurance ¾ART, ¾ART,Cat-Bond Cat-Bond
Risk Risk Finance RiskFinance Finance Risk Finance Actions taken before catastrophic events as to prepare funds for recovery process
Risk Risk Acceptance Acceptance
¾Building ¾BuildingRisk RiskReserve Reserve ¾Self-Insurance, ¾Self-Insurance,Captive Captive Finite, Finite,etc etc
Needs for integration Combination of Risk control and financing measure is important! Hirokazu Tatano
Economics of Natural Disaster, April 16, 2008
Ｌｏｇ Ｙ
Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University
レベル効果 ２次的被害 （フロー被害）
復旧期間 時間 Hirokazu Tatano
Economics of Natural Disaster, April 16, 2008
Ｌｏｇ Ｙ
Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University
レベル効果 ２次的被害 （フロー被害）
復旧期間
復旧政策 （ファイナンス）
防災投資 ミチゲーション
時間 Hirokazu Tatano
Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University
Economics of Natural Disaster, April 16, 2008
Hirokazu Tatano
Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University
Economics of Natural Disaster, April 16, 2008
Features of Contemporary Disaster Risk Low Frequency ⇒ difficulty in learning from the past experience ⇒ existence of perception bias ⇒ unknowns & uncertainties, ambiguities
High Impact (correlation in space and time) ⇒ Importance of pro-active preparation: RISK MANAGEMENT ⇒ Low insurability ⇒ Long-term effects and Spill-over effects in space
Changes in Disaster Environment ⇒ Urbanization, Globalization ⇒ Sustainable Development Hirokazu Tatano
