Advances in Flood Risk Analysis S.N. (Bas) Jonkman Professor of Hydraulic Engineering, Delft University Advisor, Rijkswaterstaat
Challenge the future...
Advances in Flood Risk Analysis S.N. (Bas) Jonkman Professor of Hydraulic Engineering, Delft University Advisor, Rijkswaterstaat
Challenge the future
Damages due to hurricane Ike (2008)
Challenge the future
Houston Galveston Bay Region
Challenge the future
4
Outline 1. Advances in flood risk assessment in the Netherlands 2. Methods for loss of life estimation 3. Research on levee failures
Challenge the future
Tour of the flood management system Holland coast
Closure dam
Rotterdam
Southwest Delta
Challenge the future
Introduction of risk-based approach • Flooding probabilities: • Dike ring systems • Multiple failure mechanisms
• Consequences: Life loss, economic
Challenge the future
Failure mechanisms – New Orleans Instability
Overflow / overtopping
Piping
Transitions
Challenge the future
Probability of flooding System modelling and fault tree dunes
Flooding
( y (system failure)) sluice
levee section
piping
failure element #1
overtopping
slope failure
failure element #2
… Challenge the future
Probability of flooding VNK, Example of resultsc
Annual probability of failure
>
International data collection and sharing effort
2. Benchmarking of models using validation cases (USACE, NL)
2. Benchmarking cases 1. Empirical data collection
Challenge the future
Loss of life: challenges & agenda 1. Empirical data collection for calibration and validation => International data collection and sharing effort
2. Benchmarking of models using validation cases (USACE, NL) 3. Development of international guidance for users • Low-severity flooding and evacuation effectiveness • How to use for acceptable risk evaluation (FN)
4. Experimental research on specific components: cars, buildings 5. International partnership Evacuation models
Challenge the future
Closing remarks • • • •
Field of flood risk analysis is advancing Many uncertainties in failure and consequence analysis To be advanced through data and event analysis Connect probabilistic and deterministic approaches
• Levee database: contributions / cases are very welcome • International collaboration in event evaluation and riskassessment
Challenge the future
Models for Loss of Life Estimation
Challenge the future
BC Hydro LSM LifeSim
Instability tests
HEC-FIA
Meso: Zone or location
Flood Risks to people Jonkman 1953 Graham
DeKay and McClelland
Macro: event
Level of detail
Micro: individual
Methods: Loss of Life
Katrina
Mechanistic
Empirical Basic modelling principles
N (1 FE ) FD N PAR
N – loss of life FE – evacuation and shelter fraction FD – mortality fraction NPAR – number of people at risk Challenge the future
Loss of life Based on 1953 disaster Breach location zones:
• Based on historical disasters, three hazard zones distinguished:
4 12
2 6
Zone with rapidly rising water
7
11
13
Breach zone
5
3
8
• Breach zone • Zone with rapidly rising • water • Remaining zone
Remaining zone
9
14
10
NL 1953
UK 1953
fit Exponential
fit Lognormal
Japan 1959
1
mortality (-)
0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 0 0
2
4
6
w ater depth (m )
Challenge the future
8
Loss of life New Orleans (around 800) 0.05
m o rta lity (-)
0.04
0.03
observations Orleans observations St. Bernard
0.02
bestfit trendline
0.01
0.00 0
1
2
3
4
w ater depth (m)
Challenge the future
Model developments
BC Hydro’s LSM
• Simulation models • Powerful visualization and communication tools • Hard to calibrate, Input output
• Empirical models • USBR’s RCEM method (next slide) • Additional cases collected from China, Indonesia etc.
Jakarta, Situ Gintung (2009)
Banqiao dam failure (1975)
Challenge the future
Source: USBR, RCEM
Challenge the future
Loss of life: challenges & agenda 1. Empirical data collection for calibration and validation => International data collection and sharing effort
1. Int. Levee Performance Database (ILPD)
Challenge the future
Loss of life: challenges & agenda 1. Empirical data collection for calibration and validation => International data collection and sharing effort
2. Benchmarking of models using validation cases (USACE, NL)
2. Benchmarking cases 1. Empirical data collection
Challenge the future
Loss of life: challenges & agenda 1. Empirical data collection for calibration and validation => International data collection and sharing effort
2. Benchmarking of models using validation cases (USACE, NL) 3. Development of guidance for users as part of risk assessment • Low-severity flooding and evacuation levees • How to use for acceptable risk evaluation (FN)
3. FN criteria
Challenge the future
Loss of life: challenges & agenda 1. Empirical data collection for calibration and validation => International data collection and sharing effort
2. Benchmarking of models using validation cases (USACE, NL) 3. Development of guidance for users as part of risk assessment • Availability of a suite of models • Low-severity flooding and evacuation levees • How to use for acceptable risk evaluation (FN)
4. Experimental research on specific components: cars, buildings Source: G. Smith, UNSW
Challenge the future
Loss of life: challenges & agenda 1. Empirical data collection for calibration and validation => International data collection and sharing effort
2. Benchmarking of models using validation cases (USACE, NL) 3. Development of guidance for users as part of risk assessment • Availability of a suite of models • Low-severity flooding and evacuation levees • How to use for acceptable risk evaluation (FN)
4. Experimental research on specific components: cars, buildings 5. International network / community
