DEMENTIA PREVALENCE IN VICTORIA THE STATISTICS 2013 Victoria is currently facing a dementia epidemic. In 2013, there are around 75,000 people living with dementia in Victoria. This number is projected to increase to almost 246,000 by 2050, unless there are medical breakthroughs. This growth will primarily be driven by increased population numbers and ageing; however, modifiable risk factors (e.g. lack of physical activity) will also play a role. Deloitte Access Economics was commissioned by Alzheimer’s Australia Vic in 2012 to provide estimates and projections of dementia prevalence in Victoria. The methodology used by Deloitte Access Economics to estimate and project dementia prevalence is based on population growth, demographic ageing and dementia prevalence from epidemiological studies. This report provides a detailed summary of the estimates and projections of dementia prevalence in Victoria, from 2013 through to 2050. The data provided in this report includes estimates and projections for Victorian Department of Health Regions, Victorian Federal Electoral Divisions, Victorian State Electoral Districts and Victorian Local Government Areas. Prevalence figures indicate the estimated numbers of people with dementia at a given time in a given area. For example, “the prevalence of dementia in Australia in 2013 is 321,600” means there are currently an estimated 321,600 people living with dementia in Australia. This does not represent the number of people with a diagnosis of dementia; rather it is the number of people estimated to have dementia. Incidence figures indicate the estimated numbers of new cases of dementia during the specified time period. For example, “the incidence of dementia in Australia for 2013 is 86,100” means there is predicted to be 86,100 new cases (or incident cases) of dementia during 2013. This is not the number of new diagnoses made, but the number of people who will develop dementia in 2013. It is very important to remember that these numbers are estimates only. They are based on models that predict how many people will have dementia; they are not based on an actual count of dementia cases. Because the numbers are estimates, they should be rounded. Even though the tables in this report provide figures to the nearest one person, there is a margin of error and the numbers do not suggest a known precise figure.

Overall Prevalence in Victoria • • • • •

2013 prevalence: around 74,600 people are estimated to be living with dementia 2020 prevalence: around 98,100 people will be living with dementia 2050 prevalence: almost 246,000 people will be living with dementia There will be an estimated 229% growth in dementia prevalence between 2013 and 2050 Prevalence is predicted to almost double by 2030, increasing to more than 141,000 people living with dementia

Victorian Department of Health (DoH) Regions (8 regions) • • • • • •

In 2013, the DoH region with the highest estimated prevalence is North and West Metropolitan (18,200 cases), while Grampian has the lowest estimated prevalence (3,500 cases) By 2050, the DoH region with the highest prevalence will remain North and West Metropolitan (60,500 cases), and the region with the lowest prevalence will remain Grampian (12,200 cases) In 2013, the order of prevalence in DoH regions (from highest to lowest) is: o North and West Metropolitan, Southern Metropolitan, Eastern Metropolitan, Barwon-South Western, Loddon Mallee, Gippsland, Hume and Grampian By 2050, the order of prevalence in DoH regions will remain as above The growth in prevalence between 2013 and 2050 is estimated to range from a 207% increase in Eastern Metropolitan to a 274% increase in Loddon Mallee Details for all DoH regions are provided in Table 1

© Alzheimer's Australia Vic 2013 Source: Deloitte Access Economics, April 2012 Dementia Prevalence Data Commissioned by Alzheimer’s Australia Vic

1

Victorian Federal Electoral Divisions (FEDs) (37 divisions) •

• • • • •

In 2013, the FED with the highest estimated prevalence is Flinders (2,800 cases), while the FED with the lowest dementia prevalence is Scullin (1,400 cases) By 2050, the FED with the highest prevalence will remain Flinders (9,900 cases), while Wills is expected to have the lowest prevalence (4,400 cases) In 2013, the 10 FEDs with the highest prevalence are (in order): o Flinders, Goldstein, Corangamite, Mallee, Bendigo, Wills, Chisholm, Murray, Dunkley and Gippsland By 2050, the 10 FEDs with the highest prevalence are predicted to be (in order): o Flinders, Corangamite, Lalor, McMillan, Bendigo, McEwen, Gippsland, Ballarat, Murray and Dunkley The growth in prevalence between 2013 and 2050 is estimated to range from a 84% increase in Willis to a 507% increase in Lalor Details for all Victorian FEDs are provided in Table 2

Victorian State Electoral Districts (SEDs) (88 districts) Note: The 88 SEDs form 8 Upper House Regions, which are referenced in brackets below. • In 2013, the SED with the highest estimated prevalence is Bellarine (Eastern Victoria; 1,700 cases), while the SED with the lowest dementia prevalence is Yuroke (Western Metropolitan; 500 cases) • By 2050, the SED with the highest prevalence will be Bass (Eastern Victoria; 4,800 cases), while Brunswick (Northern Metropolitan Region) is expected to have the lowest prevalence (1,900 cases) • In 2013, the 10 SEDs with the highest prevalence are (in order): o Bellarine (Western Victoria), Nepean (Eastern Victoria), South Barwon (Western Victoria), Gippsland East (Eastern Victoria), Box Hill (Eastern Metropolitan), Lowan (Western Victoria), Bentleigh (Southern Metropolitan), Mornington (Eastern Victoria), Bass (Eastern Victoria) and Murray Valley (Northern Victoria) • By 2050, the 10 SEDs with the highest prevalence are predicted to be (in order): o Bass (Eastern Victoria), Nepean (Eastern Victoria), South Barwon (Western Victoria), Melton (Western Victoria), Gippsland East (Eastern Victoria), Bellarine (Western Victoria), Mornington (Eastern Victoria), Narre Warren South (South Eastern Metropolitan), Narracan (Eastern Victoria), and Murray Valley (Northern Victoria) • The growth in prevalence between 2013 and 2050 is expected to range from a 86% increase in Pascoe Vale (Western Metropolitan) to a 504% increase in Melton (Western Victoria) • Details for all SEDs are provided in Table 3

Victorian Local Government Areas (LGAs) (79 areas) •

• • • • •

In 2013, the LGA with the highest estimated prevalence is Greater Geelong (3,600 cases) and the LGA with the lowest dementia prevalence is West Wimmera (90 cases) By 2050, the LGA with the highest prevalence will remain Greater Geelong (11,600 cases) and the LGA with the lowest prevalence will remain West Wimmera (200 cases) In 2013, the 10 LGAs with the highest prevalence are (in order): o Greater Geelong, Mornington Peninsula, Monash, Whitehorse, Boroondara, Glen Eira, Moreland, Kingston, Darebin and Banyule By 2050, the 10 LGAs with the highest prevalence will be (in order): o Greater Geelong, Mornington Peninsula, Casey, Monash, Whitehorse, Brimbank, Boroondara, Knox, Manningham and Greater Dandenong The growth in prevalence between 2013 and 2050 is estimated to range from a 100% increase in Hindmarsh to a 570% increase in Melton Details for all LGAs are provided in Table 4

© Alzheimer's Australia Vic 2013 Source: Deloitte Access Economics, April 2012 Dementia Prevalence Data Commissioned by Alzheimer’s Australia Vic

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DEMENTIA PREVALENCE IN VICTORIA DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH REGIONS Table 1: Dementia prevalence and prevalence ranking by DoH region in 2013 and 2050, and percentage change from 2013 to 2050. Victorian Department of Health Region

PREVALENCE

RANK in 2013

Victorian Department of Health Region

RANK in 2050

Victorian Department of Health Region

RANK % change

Victorian Department of Health Region

2013

2050

% change

15124

46398

207

1

North and West Metro

1

North and West Metro

1

6172

22862

270

2

Southern Metro

2

Southern Metro

2

Gippsland

4487

15026

235

3

Grampian

3517

12181

246

4

Hume

4207

13306

216

5

5027

18808

274

6

Gippsland

6

Gippsland

6=

18154

60500

233

7

Hume

7

Hume

6=

Hume

17928

56732

216

8

Grampian

8

Grampian

8

Eastern Metro

Eastern Metro BarwonSouth Western

Loddon Mallee North and West Metro Southern Metro

Eastern Metro BarwonSouth Western Loddon Mallee

3 4 5

Eastern Metro BarwonSouth Western Loddon Mallee

© Alzheimer's Australia Vic 2013 Source: Deloitte Access Economics, April 2012 Dementia Prevalence Data Commissioned by Alzheimer’s Australia Vic

Loddon Mallee BarwonSouth Western

3

Grampian

4

Gippsland

5

North and West Metro Southern Metro

3

DEMENTIA PREVALENCE IN VICTORIA FEDERAL ELECTORAL DIVISIONS Table 2: Dementia prevalence and prevalence ranking by FED in 2013 and 2050, and percentage change from 2013 to 2050. Victorian Federal Electoral Division

PREVALENCE

RANK in 2013

Victorian Federal Electoral Division

RANK in 2050

Victorian Federal Electoral Division

RANK % change

Victorian Federal Electoral Division

2013

2050

% change

Aston Ballarat Batman Bendigo Bruce Calwell Casey Chisholm Corangamite Corio Deakin Dunkley Flinders Gellibrand Gippsland Goldstein Gorton Higgins

1596 2106 2237 2416 2170 1376 1468 2373 2531 2145 1918 2290 2774 1965 2278 2544 1613 2139

5757 7601 5462 8223 7326 6082 5302 5996 9509 6395 5060 7485 9876 5568 8086 6035 6926 6236

260.71 261 144 240 238 342 261 153 276 198 164 227 256 183 255 137 329 192

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Flinders Goldstein Corangamite Mallee Bendigo Wills Chisholm Murray Dunkley Gippsland Batman Wannon Bruce Menzies McMillan Corio Higgins Ballarat

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Flinders Corangamite Lalor McMillan Bendigo McEwen Gippsland Ballarat Murray Dunkley Holt Bruce Mallee Menzies Gorton Jagajaga Corio Wannon

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Holt

1584

7363

365

19

Jagajaga

19

Higgins

19

Hotham Indi Isaacs Jagajaga Kooyong LaTrobe Lalor

2026 2027 1999 2084 2059 1365 1503

5125 5849 6165 6495 5009 5634 9128

153 189 208 212 143 313 507

20 21 22 23 24 25 26

20 21 22 23 24 25 26

2439

7097

191

27

27

Mallee

Maribyrnong McEwen McMillan Melbourne Melbourne Ports Menzies Murray Scullin Wannon

1934 1728 2151 1579

6055 8092 8599 6050

213 368 300 283

28 29 30 31

28 29 30 31

Isaacs Calwell Maribyrnong Melbourne Goldstein Chisholm Indi Melbourne Ports Aston LaTrobe Gellibrand Batman

20 21 22 23 24 25 26

Mallee

Kooyong Indi Hotham Isaacs Gellibrand Maribyrnong Deakin Melbourne Ports McEwen Gorton Aston Holt

Lalor McEwen Holt Calwell Gorton LaTrobe McMillan Scullin Melbourne Corangamite Casey Ballarat Aston Flinders Gippsland Bendigo Bruce Murray Melbourne Ports Dunkley Menzies Maribyrnong Jagajaga Isaacs Corio Higgins

28 29 30 31

Indi Gellibrand Wannon Deakin

1767

5777

227

32

Melbourne

32

Scullin

32

Hotham

2170 2305 1363 2220

6934 7549 5349 6245

220 228 292 181

33 34 35 36

Lalor Casey Calwell LaTrobe

33 34 35 36

Casey Hotham Deakin Kooyong

33 34 35 36

Chisholm Batman Kooyong Goldstein

Wills

2374

4373

84

37

Scullin

37

Wills

37

Wills

27

© Alzheimer's Australia Vic 2013 Source: Deloitte Access Economics, April 2012 Dementia Prevalence Data Commissioned by Alzheimer’s Australia Vic

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DEMENTIA PREVALENCE IN VICTORIA STATE ELECTORAL DISTRICTS Table 3: Dementia prevalence and prevalence ranking by SED in 2013 and 2050, and percentage change from 2013 to 2050. Victorian State Electoral District

PREVALENCE

RANK in 2013

Victorian State Electoral District

RANK in 2050

Victorian State Electoral District

RANK % change

Victorian State Electoral District

2013

2050

% change

Albert Park

743

3208

332

1

Bellarine

1

Bass

1

Melton

Altona

789

3057

287

2

Nepean

2

Nepean

2

Tarneit

Ballarat East

891

3158

254

3

South Barwon

3

South Barwon

3

Yan Yean

Ballarat West

934

3157

238

4

Gippsland East

4

Melton

4

Yuroke

Bass

1062

4796

352

5

Box Hill

5

Gippsland East

5

Gembrook

Bayswater

786

2664

239

6

Lowan

6

Bellarine

6

Narre Warren South

Bellarine

1718

4013

134

7

Bentleigh

7

Mornington

7

Hastings

Benalla

982

2994

205

8

Mornington

8

Narre Warren South

8

Melbourne

Benambra

685

2074

203

9

Bass

9

Narracan

9

Cranbourne

Bendigo East Bendigo West Bentleigh

947

3251

243

10

Murray Valley

10

Murray Valley

10

Keilor

923

2941

219

11

Pascoe Vale

11

Morwell

11

Bass

1086

2521

132

12

Preston

12

Bendigo East

12

Mill Park

Box Hill

1095

3009

175

13

Burwood

13

Cranbourne

13

Seymour

Brighton Broadmeadows Brunswick

1014

2645

161

14

Brighton

14

Hastings

14

Macedon

762

2205

189

15

Ivanhoe

15

Albert Park

15

Albert Park

782

1878

140

16

Narracan

16

Seymour

16

Kororoit

Bulleen

896

2920

226

17

Benalla

17

Ballarat East

17

Ferntree Gully

Bundoora

797

2395

201

18

Bendigo East

18

Gembrook

18

Narre Warren North

Burwood

1031

2884

180

19

19

Ballarat West

19

Morwell

Carrum

920

2536

176

20

20

Yan Yean

20

Altona

Caulfield

884

1987

125

21

Polwarth Mount Waverley Ripon

21

Melbourne

21

Eltham

Clayton

928

2569

177

22

Doncaster

22

Doncaster

22

Lyndhurst

Cranbourne

711

3249

357

23

Sandringham

23

Altona

23

Scoresby

Dandenong

804

2671

232

24

Ballarat West

24

Warrandyte

24

South Barwon

Derrimut

724

2466

240

25

Geelong

25

Box Hill

25

Monbulk

Doncaster

942

3077

227

26

Clayton

26

Benalla

26

Gippsland East

Eltham

614

2325

279

27

Swan Hill

27

Mildura

27

Evelyn

Essendon

834

2086

150

28

Bendigo West

28

Rodney

28

Kilsyth

Evelyn Ferntree Gully Footscray

637

2316

263

29

Forest Hill

29

Lyndhurst

29

Lara

637

2623

312

30

Mildura

30

Bendigo West

30

Warrandyte

777

1964

153

31

Carrum

31

Bulleen

31

Ballarat East

Forest Hill

922

2793

203

32

Mordialloc

32

Keilor

32

Mulgrave

Frankston

891

2497

180

33

Kew

33

Lara

33

Bendigo East

Geelong

932

2474

165

34

Oakleigh

34

Burwood

34

Derrimut

Gembrook

640

3158

394

35

Mitcham

35

Polwarth

35

Bayswater

Gippsland East

1123

4082

263

36

South-West Coast

36

Macedon

36

Narracan

Gippsland South

893

2846

219

37

Rodney

37

Gippsland South

37

Richmond

© Alzheimer's Australia Vic 2013 Source: Deloitte Access Economics, April 2012 Dementia Prevalence Data Commissioned by Alzheimer’s Australia Vic

5

Victorian State Electoral District

PREVALENCE 2013

2050

% change

RANK in 2013

Victorian State Electoral District

RANK in 2050

Victorian State Electoral District

Hastings

689

3220

367

38

Bulleen

38

Scoresby

38

Ballarat West

Hawthorn

832

2309

177

39

Gippsland South

39

South-West Coast

39

Dandenong

Ivanhoe

1012

2700

167

40

Frankston

40

Lowan

40

Mornington

Keilor

642

2916

354

41

Malvern

41

Mulgrave

41

Nepean

Kew

917

2304

151

42

Ballarat East

42

Tarneit

42

Rodney

Kilsyth

747

2712

263

43

Caulfield

43

Niddrie

43

Doncaster

Kororoit

585

2464

321

44

Niddrie

44

Forest Hill

44

Bulleen

Lara

804

2907

262

45

Shepparton

45

Shepparton

45

Niddrie

Lowan

1088

2829

160

46

Warrandyte

46

Kilsyth

46

Mildura

Lyndhurst

787

2954

275

47

Morwell

47

Ivanhoe

47

Shepparton

Macedon

661

2873

335

48

Essendon

48

Malvern

48

Bendigo West

Malvern

891

2682

201

49

Hawthorn

49

Dandenong

49

Gippsland South

Melbourne

681

3138

361

50

Northcote

50

Mitcham

50

South-West Coast

Melton

696

4203

504

51

Thomastown

51

Bayswater

51

Murray Valley

Mildura

920

2986

224

52

Dandenong

52

Brighton

52

Prahran

Mill Park

549

2408

339

53

Lara

53

Ripon

53

Benalla

Mitcham

913

2668

192

54

Mulgrave

54

54

Polwarth

Monbulk

568

2083

267

55

Bundoora

55

55

Forest Hill

Mordialloc

918

2387

160

56

Altona

56

Ferntree Gully Mount Waverley Yuroke

56

Benambra

Mornington

1070

3528

230

57

Lyndhurst

57

Clayton

57

Malvern

Morwell Mount Waverley Mulgrave Murray Valley Narracan Narre Warren North Narre Warren South Nepean

837

3259

289

58

Bayswater

58

Carrum

58

Bundoora

944

2602

176

59

Brunswick

59

Bentleigh

59

Mitcham

803

2806

249

60

Footscray

60

Frankston

60

Broadmeadows

1055

3261

209

61

Prahran

61

Geelong

61

Williamstown

990

3353

239

62

Williamstown

62

Derrimut

62

Ripon

535

2181

308

63

Broadmeadows

63

Kororoit

63

Frankston

727

3502

382

64

Scoresby

64

Mill Park

64

Burwood

1435

4731

230

65

Kilsyth

65

Bundoora

65

Hawthorn

Niddrie

859

2797

226

66

Albert Park

66

Mordialloc

66

Clayton

Northcote

816

2034

149

67

Seymour

67

Prahran

67

Carrum

Oakleigh

916

2243

145

68

Narre Warren South

68

Swan Hill

68

Mount Waverley

Pascoe Vale

1052

1959

86

69

Derrimut

69

Eltham

69

Box Hill

Polwarth

946

2882

205

70

Cranbourne

70

Evelyn

70

Ivanhoe

Prahran

773

2384

209

71

Melton

71

Hawthorn

71

Geelong

Preston

1043

2273

118

72

Hastings

72

Kew

72

Thomastown

Richmond

597

2023

239

73

Benambra

73

Preston

73

Brighton

Ripon

943

2642

180

74

Melbourne

74

Oakleigh

74

Lowan

Rodney

904

2966

228

75

Macedon

75

Williamstown

75

Mordialloc

Sandringham

935

2032

117

76

Keilor

76

Broadmeadows

76

Swan Hill

Scoresby

756

2835

275

77

Gembrook

77

Narre Warren North

77

Footscray

Seymour

734

3190

335

78

Evelyn

78

Thomastown

78

Kew

Shepparton

843

2718

222

79

Ferntree Gully

79

Essendon

79

Essendon

South

1141

4273

275

80

Eltham

80

Monbulk

80

Northcote

© Alzheimer's Australia Vic 2013 Source: Deloitte Access Economics, April 2012 Dementia Prevalence Data Commissioned by Alzheimer’s Australia Vic

RANK % change

Victorian State Electoral District

6

Victorian State Electoral District Barwon

2013

2050

% change

RANK in 2013

South-West Coast

910

2835

211

81

Richmond

81

Benambra

81

Oakleigh

Swan Hill

925

2372

156

82

Yan Yean

82

Northcote

82

Brunswick

Tarneit

522

2799

436

83

Kororoit

83

Sandringham

83

Bellarine

Thomastown

812

2123

162

84

Monbulk

84

Richmond

84

Bentleigh

Warrandyte

841

3024

260

85

Mill Park

85

Caulfield

85

Caulfield

86

Footscray

86

Preston

PREVALENCE

Victorian State Electoral District

RANK in 2050

Victorian State Electoral District

RANK % change

Victorian State Electoral District

Williamstown

771

2207

186

86

Narre Warren North

Yan Yean

589

3145

434

87

Tarneit

87

Pascoe Vale

87

Sandringham

Yuroke

497

2602

424

88

Yuroke

88

Brunswick

88

Pascoe Vale

© Alzheimer's Australia Vic 2013 Source: Deloitte Access Economics, April 2012 Dementia Prevalence Data Commissioned by Alzheimer’s Australia Vic

7

DEMENTIA PREVALENCE IN VICTORIA LOCAL GOVERNMENT AREAS Table 4: Dementia prevalence and prevalence ranking by LGA in 2013 and 2050, and percentage change from 2013 to 2050. PREVALENCE 2013

2050

% change

RANK in 2013

Alpine

246

670

172

1

Ararat

216

605

180

2

Ballarat Banyule

1409 1999

4680 5837

232 192

3 4

Greater Geelong Mornington Peninsula Monash Whitehorse

Bass Coast

640

2154

237

5

Baw Baw Bayside Benalla Boroondara

650 1742 306 2638

2453 4144 755 6945

277 138 147 163

Brimbank

1898

7044

Buloke

161

Central Goldfields

Victorian LGA

Victorian LGA

RANK in 2050

Victorian LGA

RANK % change

Victorian LGA

3 4

Greater Geelong Mornington Peninsula Casey Monash

Boroondara

5

Whitehorse

5

6 7 8 9

Glen Eira Moreland Kingston Darebin

6 7 8 9

6 7 8 9

271

10

Banyule

10

10

Mansfield

412

156

11

Casey

11

Brimbank Boroondara Knox Manningham Greater Dandenong Yarra Ranges

Cardinia Wyndham Golden Plains Casey Mitchell Nillumbik Whittlesea

11

Hume

293

745

154

12

Manningham

12

Whittlesea

12

Moorabool

Campaspe

658

2193

233

13

13

Banyule

13

Cardinia Casey

708 1984

4310 9656

509 387

14 15

Greater Dandenong Brimbank Knox

14 15

Kingston Hume

14 15

Colac Otway

367

1122

206

16

Bayside

16

Maroondah

16

Corangamite

308

827

169

17

Darebin East Gippsland Frankston

2165

4951

129

18

883

3122

254

19

1661

5392

225

20

Gannawarra

233

581

149

21

Glen Eira

2338

5268

125

22

Glenelg

354

1026

190

138

790

1554

Golden Plains Greater Bendigo Greater Dandenong Greater Shepparton Greater Geelong Hepburn

Moonee Valley Frankston Yarra Ranges Maroondah Greater Bendigo

1 2

1

Melton

2

Melbourne

3 4

Macedon Ranges Surf Coast Murrindindi Yarra Ranges

18

Greater Bendigo Frankston

19

Glen Eira

19

Brimbank

20

Wyndham

20

21

Darebin

21

Stonnington

22

Moonee Valley

22

23

Ballarat

23

Melton

23

Maroondah East Gippsland Greater Bendigo Mornington Peninsula

472

24

Whittlesea

24

Moreland

24

Yarra

5463

252

25

Hume

25

Ballarat

25

Wellington

1901

6325

233

26

Hobsons Bay

26

Stonnington

26

Bass Coast

894

2878

222

27

Latrobe

27

Cardinia

27

Port Phillip

3623

11594

220

28

Port Phillip

28

Bayside

28

Mildura

252

763

203

29

Greater Shepparton

29

Latrobe

29

South Gippsland

17

© Alzheimer's Australia Vic 2013 Source: Deloitte Access Economics, April 2012 Dementia Prevalence Data Commissioned by Alzheimer’s Australia Vic

17

Baw Baw

18

Knox

8

PREVALENCE Victorian LGA

RANK in 2013

Victorian LGA

RANK in 2050

Victorian LGA

RANK % change

Victorian LGA

2013

2050

% change

Hindmarsh

172

344

100

30

East Gippsland

30

Hobsons Bay

30

Hobsons Bay

1209

3641

201

31

Wyndham

31

Melbourne

31

Horsham

357

1059

197

32

Mildura

32

32

Hume

1320

5771

337

33

Maribyrnong

33

33

Manningham

Indigo

220

710

223

34

Yarra

34

34

Moira

Kingston Knox Latrobe Loddon Macedon Ranges

2218 1777 1167 181

5794 6623 3687 511

161 273 216 182

35 36 37 38

Cardinia Melton Wellington Campaspe

35 36 37 38

Port Phillip East Gippsland Greater Shepparton Mildura Yarra Baw Baw Wellington

Greater Dandenong Ballarat

35 36 37 38

Strathbogie Frankston Indigo Warrnambool

483

1928

299

39

Baw Baw

39

Campaspe

39

Wodonga

Manningham

1947

6449

231

40

Bass Coast

40

Nillumbik

40

Mansfield

115

506

340

41

Moira

41

Bass Coast

41

Maribyrnong Maroondah

810 1611

1939 5759

139 257

42 43

42 43

577

3520

510

44

Moira Maribyrnong Macedon Ranges

42 43

Melbourne

44

Stonnington

Melton

705

4722

570

45

Melbourne Wangaratta Macedon Ranges South Gippsland

Greater Shepparton Greater Geelong Latrobe Colac Otway

Mitchell

45

Hepburn

Mildura

817

2733

235

46

Warrnambool

46

46

Monash

Mitchell

354

1685

376

47

Nillumbik

47

South Gippsland Warrnambool

47

Moira

594

1966

231

48

Wodonga

48

Wangaratta

48

Monash Moonee Valley Moorabool Moreland Mornington Peninsula Mount Alexander

2807

8491

202

49

Colac Otway

49

Moorabool

49

Hobsons Bay Mount Alexander Horsham

1738

4871

180

50

Horsham

50

Surf Coast

50

Whitehorse

331 2324

1391 4706

320 102

51 52

51 52

Wodonga Colac Otway

51 52

Pyrenees Moyne

2971

10153

242

53

53

Horsham

53

Banyule

342

1024

199

54

Glenelg Mitchell Mount Alexander Southern Grampians

54

Glenelg

54

Glenelg

Moyne

251

733

192

55

Surf Coast

55

55

Wangaratta

Murrindindi

232

892

284

56

Moorabool

56

56

Loddon

234

591

153

57

Corangamite

57

Murrindindi

57

465 933

2171 3123

367 235

58 59

58 59

132

386

192

60

60

Corangamite

Queenscliffe Southern Grampians South Gippsland

123

327

166

61

61

Corangamite Swan Hill Golden Plains Hepburn

58 59

Pyrenees

Benalla Swan Hill Central Goldfields Hepburn

Moonee Valley Ararat Alpine

61

Swan Hill

340

893

163

62

Moyne

62

Benalla

62

Queenscliffe

472

1575

234

63

Alpine

63

Central Goldfields

63

Boroondara

Northern Grampians Nillumbik Port Phillip

44 45

60

© Alzheimer's Australia Vic 2013 Source: Deloitte Access Economics, April 2012 Dementia Prevalence Data Commissioned by Alzheimer’s Australia Vic

Mount Alexander Southern Grampians

Campaspe

9

PREVALENCE Victorian LGA

RANK in 2013

Victorian LGA

2013

2050

% change

Stonnington

1475

4467

203

64

Strathbogie Surf Coast

227 340

745 1347

228 296

65 66

Northern Grampians Gannawarra Murrindindi

Swan Hill

303

807

166

67

Towong

133

312

135

Wangaratta

514

1485

Warrnambool Wellington West Wimmera Whitehorse

467 674

RANK in 2050

Victorian LGA

RANK % change

64

Strathbogie

64

65 66

Moyne Indigo

65 66

Strathbogie

67

Alpine

67

68

Indigo

68

Ararat

68

189

69

Ararat

69

1507 2281

223 238

70 71

Yarriambiack Loddon

70 71

Northern Grampians Gannawarra Loddon

85

198

133

72

Hindmarsh

72

2723

8000

194

73

Whittlesea

1325

5957

350

74

Wodonga Wyndham Yarra Yarra Ranges

369 866 751

1189 5036 2565

222 482 242

75 76 77

Buloke Golden Plains Towong Pyrenees Queenscliffe

1620

6141

279

78

190

398

109

79

Yarriambiack

Victorian LGA

Southern Grampians Kingston Buloke Central Goldfields Northern Grampians

69

Gannawarra

70 71

Benalla Maribyrnong

Mansfield

72

Bayside

73

Buloke

73

74

Yarriambiack

74

75 76 77

Pyrenees Hindmarsh Queenscliffe

75 76 77

Towong West Wimmera Darebin Glen Eira Yarriambiack

Mansfield

78

Towong

78

Moreland

West Wimmera

79

West Wimmera

79

Hindmarsh

© Alzheimer's Australia Vic 2013 Source: Deloitte Access Economics, April 2012 Dementia Prevalence Data Commissioned by Alzheimer’s Australia Vic

10