Trends & Statistics - May 2013

Insight Department VisitScotland May 2013 1

Welcome In today’s rapidly changing world, having an informed outlook is vital. The tourism and hospitality sectors are increasingly sensitive to consumer trends and economic conditions. The VisitScotland Insights Team combines consumer perspectives with industry knowledge to allow Scottish Tourism to meet the challenges of today’s marketplace. Our monthly Trends and Statistics Summary is a snapshot of industry performance. It also provides a commentary on the drivers influencing consumers and business now and in the future.

Insights Summary Domestic overnight visitor trips were up 13% in January compared to January 2012. Both holiday and business trips were up. Spend was up by 8.4%. During 2012 international visits were down on 2011. There was an increase in visitors from China, Germany, the Netherlands and Norway. With continued difficult economic conditions, people are becoming savvy spenders, not always going for the cheapest option but seeking value for money and individual products that will last. A survey by Aviva found over a third of holidaymakers were sharing trips with friends or extended family to share cost, childcare expenses and responsibilities. Confidence among hotels (3 month outlook) is at 75%, 10% up on last year, while confidence levels among B&Bs are down by 4% and self-catering by 18%.

2

Tourism Performance Domestic Overnight Tourism to Scotland (GB Residents)

International Outbound Trips from UK There were just under 3.5 million outbound trips from the UK during March, 4% down on March 2012. A trend for shorter trips abroad is continuing. Visits to North America in Q1 are 11% down on last year, while trips to Europe are up by 1%.

25.0% Domestic Overnight Tourism 20.0% % Change Year-on-Year

In January, numbers of domestic overnight trips were up 13% on January 2012, bucking the trend seen in GB as a whole (down 9%). The total number of nights was up just 1.5% and spend up 8.4%. Due to the small sample size for January these results hould be viewed with caution. Holiday trips were up 50% and spend up 16%, while business trips were up 60% and spend 19%. However VFR trips were 27% down and spend 23% down.

15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0%

% Change Jan-12 Jan-13

Trips (m) 19.6% 0.546 0.65

Night (m) 1.5% 1.503 1.53

Spend (£m) 8.4% £95 £103

International Tourism to Scotland International Inbound Tourism 20.0%

% Change Year-on-Year

15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% Trips (m)

Night (m)

Spen d (£m)

% Change

-5.1%

-0.7%

-6.0%

Q1-4 2011

2.35

17.62

1489.67

Q1-4 2012

2.23

17.50

1400.89

During 2012 as a whole trips were down 5%, nights down 0.7% and spend down 6% on 2011 figures. The decline is likely a result of the ongoing global economic situation, particularly the Eurozone crisis. There was growth from some markets including China, Norway, the Netherlands and Germany, which had the highest number of trips for 4 years but fewer nights indicating a trend towards shorter trips. Numbers from Italy improved on 2011 but were still low compared to previous years. Provisional IPS data for GB shows inbound visitor spend up 14% in March. The month saw a 3% decrease in visits however over the first quarter visits were 2% up on Q1 2012. After a very strong February, March saw a decrease in holiday and VFR trips, but continued growth in business trips.

3

Tourism Performance Tourism Day Visits to Scotland (GB Residents) Tourism Day Visits 20.0% 15.0%

% Change Year-on-Year

Day visits during the first quarter are down 12.5% from Q1 2012, while spend is up 18%. March is slightly up on 2011 and 2012, but that is expected with an early Easter. Average spend is down from January and February, although this may be due to the small sample size. Average spend in March is £36.04 compared to £26.72 in March 2012.

10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0%

% Change

Trips (m)

Spend (£m)

-12.5%

18.0%

Jan-Mar 2012

32

£855

Jan-Mar 2013

28

£1,009

Accommodation Occupancy Accommodation occupancy for all sectors was up in March compared to March 2011 and 2012. However, this is probably largely a result of Easter being in March this year. Hostel occupancy was up 7% and hotel room occupancy up 6% compared to last March. Meanwhile, confidence (3 month outlook) over the first quarter is at 75% in hotels, up 10% on the same period last year. In self-catering confidence is down 18% at 50% and among B&Bs it is down 4% at 53%. 42% of hostels are confident.

4

Tourism Trends Trend

Consumer Conditions

Exchange Rates Weather

Commentary With consumers adopting savvy spending, there is a resurgence in craft industries including the British tradition of made-to-measure bicycle building. Growth in Scotland’s private sector slowed in March according to the Bank of Scotland, while poor weather contributed to poor retail sales in March according to the British Retail Consortium. High streets saw a 7% drop in footfall and covered shopping centres saw a 2.4% fall compared to March 2012. Petrol prices have fallen slightly following a reduction in wholesale prices and better exchange rates. The € remains relatively weak versus the £, with around €1.18 to £1, meaning poor value for money for inbound visitors from the Eurozone. The £ remains fairly stable against the $. Worries about the Eurozone continue. The European Central Bank lowered interest rates and said it would act if more was needed to boost the eurozone’s economic health. April started cold and frosty with some rain and snow. Mid-month it turned milder but wet and windy. The 19 and 20 were dry and settled then windy and unsettled weather returned. Temperatures across the UK were below average for April, although eastern England did see temperatures up to 23 C on the 25 . Riverside Museum in Glasgow is looking to exhibit part of the fuselage of PanAm 103, the Boeing 747 blown up over Lockerbie in December 1988. Glasgow City Council plan to introduce a city bike hire scheme in time for the Commonwealth Games. Revamped planning rules may see wind farms banned in Scotland’s national parks and designated scenic areas, and located further from settlements. Hebrides - Islands on the Edge, a new BBC documentary narrated by Ewan McGregor and filmed by an acclaimed wildlife film team, portrays Hebridean wildlife over a year, featuring dramatic weather and stunning scenery. It’s the first in BBC’s ‘Wild Scotland’ season that will also feature narration by Sir David Attenborough. The Scottish Government has called for Airport Passenger Duty (APD) to be devolved before the Commonwealth Games and Ryder Cup. Edinburgh Airport now has free wifi. Glasgow Central Station is to become a music venue featuring weekly jazz concerts, dance performances and other cultural events on the main concourse. A new £3m visitor centre is planned at Pitlochry Dam. A survey by BDO showed a strong performance by Glasgow hotels in February with 73.7% occupancy, up from 70.9% in Feb 2012. Occupancy in Aberdeen was down on last year but room rates stayed buoyant, however Edinburgh was seen to underperform with occupancy at 65.8%, down 0.4% on last year and revenue per available room down 6.3% at £43.01. Turkish Airlines are increasing their 4x weekly flights between Edinburgh and Istanbul to a daily operation. VisitBritain are partnering with Emirates to promote Britain overseas. Mount Etna has been active, affecting some flights to Sicily, while volcanic activity in Alaska’s Aleutian Islands has led to precautionary rerouting of flights between the US and the Far East. March saw falling passenger numbers at Edinburgh Airport. However, international passenger numbers were up, and the airport blamed weather disruption at other airports for the drop in domestic passenger numbers. VIC footfall was down at both Glasgow and Edinburgh airports (Jan-Apr, compared to same period last year), however bookings were up with Glasgow seeing strong growth in bookings and bed-nights. A survey by Aviva found over a third of holidaymakers were sharing trips with friends or extended family to share costs, childcare expenses and responsibilities. 35-44 year olds were as likely as the 25-34 group to take the opportunity of a paid trip. 1 in 5 had a free trip by travelling with family or friends. The UK is still the biggest market in Europe for low-cost airlines with capacity up by 15% over the last year. th

th

o

News

Tourism Industry

Travel Demand

th

Information Sources GBTS - Great Britain Tourism Survey IPS - International Passenger Survey GBDVS - Great Britain Day Visit Survey SAOS - Scottish Accommodation Occupancy Survey (SAOS represented as % of total occupancy.) Unless stated % Change and percentage point difference is calculated against comparable period in previous 12 months. For further information on this briefing please contact the Insights Department - [email protected]

Disclaimer: This document has been produced by VisitScotland Insight Department. Due to data collection methodology figures are considered provisional, may be subject to change upon revision and may not total 100% due to rounding. VisitScotland are subject to data provision from third parties and cannot guarantee the availability of specific data. No representation or warranty is given (expressed or implied) as to accuracy or correctness of the information and of the opinions contained in this report. The material shouldn’t be regarded as specific advice and no action should be taken with reliance on it. Neither the authors nor VisitScotland accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss or damage in any way or reliance put upon the material.

5

Notes

6