Daily

Nickel — LME on-warrant inventory falling sharply

LME on-warrant nickel inventory has fallen sharply since the beginning of February, falling 21,414 mt or nearly 13% to 146,514 mt and reaching the lowest level since April 2013. Headline inventory, in contrast, is currently 268,710 mt and still around all-time record levels, while cancelled warrants account for 45.5% of total LME stocks. The main reason for the fall in on-warrant inventory has been a surge in warrant cancellations in Johor, which have climbed 21,954 mt since the beginning of February and now represent 49.6% of total LME inventory at that location. Headline inventory at Johor has meanwhile continued to edge higher over the course of February, with small outflows only recently starting to emerge. The two other main locations for nickel inventory, namely Antwerp and Rotterdam, meanwhile show completely different trends for both headline and on-warrant inventory. Antwerp has seen cancelled warrants surge to 91.6% of headline stocks, leaving only 1,332 mt of material on-warrant there. Headline inventory has meanwhile come under slow and steady downwards pressure since early October as cancelled material is slowly removed from the system. Rotterdam has meanwhile seen steady recharging and drawing down of headline inventory, though interestingly; on-warrant inventory (and cancelled warrants) has been pretty static since early November 2013. Currently, cancelled warrants account for 40.4% of total inventory in that location compared to 45.5%. The concentrated nature of nickel inventory, along with what will likely be the steady tightening of the refined market in the wake of the Indonesian ore export ban, suggests that physical premia and prices will likely edge higher still. In that regard, it is locations like Rotterdam, which lack the queues seen in places like Johor and Antwerp that will likely see the most movement in premia. By Leon Westgate

LME nickel inventory by region

Commodities Strategist Walter de Wet [email protected] +27-11-415-4176 Commodities Strategist Leon Westgate [email protected] +44-203-145-6822 Commodities Strategist Melinda Moore [email protected] +44-203-145-6887 This material is "non-independent research". Non-independent research is a "marketing communication" as defined in the UK FCA Handbook. It has not been prepared in accordance with the full legal requirements designed to promote independence of research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

Source: LME, Standard Bank Research

www.standardbank.com/research

Global | Commodities

21 February 2014

Standard Bank

Global | Commodities 21 February 2014

Base metals Chatter from the G-20 meeting is making headlines today, though the noise surrounding “concrete actions” to bolster growth and hopes for the optimisation of Fed tapering plans, in order not to disrupt EM economies, are still all pretty vague and largely irrelevant for the industrial metals at least. The base metals are generally firmer, though volumes are down markedly from recent days, with the complex limping into the weekend. Copper turnover has been particularly muted, with prices trading sideways heading into US trade. The Chinese market remains rather low key, though fresh selling interest has started to emerge. Physical markets in Shanghai are trading at a sizeable Rmb 220/mt discount to the March SHFE contract, something underlined by yet another increase in SHFE warehouse inventory. This morning saw the SHFE stock data come in showing a 13,770 mt increase this week to 194,111 mt. The increase all occurred in the domestic warehouses, with inventory in the bonded warehouses monitored by the exchange remaining unchanged. China’s refined imports for January came in at 397,459 mt, up 27% m/m and 63.4% y/y. The data was well flagged by the preliminary data however, with little additional impact on prices or sentiment overnight. Refined exports were up only very marginally however, coming in at 25,933 mt, up 3% m/m and down 1% y/y. Given the duration and extent of the LME backwardation, it’s interesting to note that refined exports have remained fairly static. Nickel has recovered following yesterday’s weakness, though it’s worth noting a sharp drop-off in LME Select turnover. Chinese trade data suggest, as expected, that there was a surge in ore imports from Indonesia ahead of the export ban, with imports of nickel ore from Indonesia surging 21% m/m to 6.12 Mt, compared to 5.04 Mt in December and 3.99 Mt in January 2013. By Leon Westgate

Precious metals This morning, China released platinum and palladium data for January. For both metals, the import number was disappointing. China’s platinum imports dropped to almost half of December last year (369Kozs), at 195Kozs in January. China has become much more price-sensitive since the start of 2012, as yet again demonstrated by the January data. Platinum averaged $1,424 in January 2014, and only $1,356 in December 2013. Palladium imports declined from 70.7Kozs in December to 54.4Kozs in January. While palladium imports tend to decline in January, this year’s print is still the lowest import number for China since at least 2009. Swiss customs data was released yesterday. Switzerland was a net importer of platinum and a net exporter of palladium in January. The main features of the data were that Russian exports to Switzerland had remained stable, and SA’s exports to Switzerland rose in January (although February is likely to be down, due to strike action). There is still gold support in the US. In Asia, demand is still muted. We believe that Asia physical demand must be brisk to move gold higher on a sustainable basis. The SGE premium dropped as low as $0.75/oz this morning – a level not seen for some time. Silver keeps running into resistance on approach of $22.00. Silver’s fundamentals are weak, and rallies are likely to fade. We believe that China’s silver inventory levels remain high (possibly up to 15 months’ worth of fabrication demand). In fact, silver is the only

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Global | Commodities 21 February 2014

mainstream precious metal that has not seen a y/y rise in imports by China because Asia is not responding to lower prices. By Walter de Wet

Bulks Relatively benign trading conditions prevailed in Chinese steel markets today, a typical no-news Friday. Liquidity costs remained low despite the PBOC’s cash drainage of RMB 108bn across the week, providing re-stockers some relief and stabilising IO swaps pricing. Shanghai Equities fell 1.17% to 2,114 points, although bouncing off the 2,100 levels. The Securities Journal pointed out that Chinese investment growth would slow as manufacturing sector expansion curbs continue, in the drive to reduce overcapacity. Shanghai 7-day interbank rates closed at 3% today – the lowest level since May last year. While the market expects the PBOC to conduct further drainage operations, yesterday’s contractionary PMI flash results may have scared Beijing into giving growth a little respite. Shanghai Rebar Futures May-14 contract closed off RMB 6/t at RMB 3,389/t. Dazong HRC April-14 futures shifted RMB 20/t higher to RMB 3,455/t. The SHFE continues to plan for the launch of a HRC futures contract for H1:14, with regulatory approvals gained in January from the CSRC. Among physical steels, Tangshan billet prices rose RMB 20/t back to RMB 2,900/t. Rebar prices fell RMB 20-30/t in Beijing, while remaining unchanged in Shanghai. Shagang has cut its rebar list prices for end-Feb by RM 50/t, with Yonggang & Zenith following suit. Shagang suggests however that warmer weather and restocking is likely to mean this will be the final price cut for this quarter. HRC prices dropped a further RMB 10-20/t in Shanghai and Beijing, with stocks in Beijing falling w/w by 4,000 tonnes, but rising by 6,000 tonnes in Shanghai. Dalian Commodity Exchange IO active May-14 contract prices down just RMB 1/t to RMB 851/t. Among physical iron ore, RioT closed a PB Fe 61.4% fines tender at $121.89/t today into south-China. PB fines port stocks are trading at RMB 830/t in Shandong. The TSI Fe 62% China CFR price index fell 50 cents to $122.40/t (MTD: $122.30/t). The Platts Fe 62% index fell 25 cents to $122/t (MTD: $122.28/t), while the TSI Fe 58% index fell 20 cents to $111/t (MTD: $111.87/t). The Metal Bulletin Fe 62% index fell 47 cents to $122.14/t, while its Fe 58% index fell 77 cents to $107.29/t. Argus Fe 62% fell 50 cents to $120.40/t. Mysteel’s Fe 62% index fell 25 cents to $122.25/t, while its Fe 58% index fell 25 cents to $110.25/t. In IO supply news, India’s Congress party leader suggests that Goa’s e-auction bidding had under-priced the true value of the region’s ore. However, he may well not quite understand the pricing of Fe 1% or the internal logistics issues. The Baltic Exchange Cape index shifted 4% higher to $10,144 /day (up 21% across the week), with C3 at $18.87/t and C5 at $8.37/t. Work on the Panama Canal expansion (72% complete) is believed to be restarting this week, after the dispute over $1.6bn cost overruns has reached preliminary agreement. Completion is now scheduled for June 2015, which will significantly change the thermal coal supply-demand balances between the Atlantic and the Pacific, realigning pricing for the two markets. We would expect Atlantic prices to rise and Pacific prices to fall as a

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Global | Commodities 21 February 2014

result. However, given uncertainties over the exact completion dates, we do not expect swaps prices to adjust accordingly just yet. The euro gapped down yesterday following release of the region’s poorer PMI data, with expectations the ECB would need to cut rates again. For Q2:14 thermal coal prices, API 2 is trading at $74.25/t; API 4 is trading at $73.95/t; while Newcastle is trading at $77.40/t. Australian NAR 5500 is trading c.$66/t, while RBCT is at $65/t. 3 NEWC cargoes have traded today, including one April at $77.20/t; a June at $78/t and a July at $78/t versus Cal15 swaps at $79/t. Negotiations for the NEWC April-contract year will intensify in coming weeks. BHPB has weighed into next week’s “48 hr stop work” threats by Aurizon rail unions over pay and work conditions, suggesting it will take train drivers to court due to the irresponsible harm caused by delaying coal deliveries to customers. Goldman Sach is negotiating with Carbosan to use its 6mtpa port facilities, which would further increase Colombian supplies if agreed. Germany is to close 11.9 GW of thermal generating capacity and replace with 8.6GW, by end-2018, reducing coal demand by at least 9mtpa. Zhengzhou Futures May-14 contract price rose RMB 3/t to RMB 532.6/t. Major Chinese port stock inventories dropped 0.7% to 18.91mt d/d and by 3.2% w/w due to some industrial re-stocking demand since CNY as well as improved railings. Large producers such as Shenhua are expected to lock in LT contract prices in the RMB 550560/t range in coming weeks. Shenhua settled Q1 prices at RMB 558.8/t. Power plants are continuing to see improving consumption patterns, with burn rates at 0.71mt /day this week, compared to 0.66mt/day last week. This compares with 0.34mt/day at the beginning of the month, during CNY holidays. Traders are expecting a 5% rise in near-term pricing as a result, ahead of the hydro season. The CEC expects China’s power consumption to lift by 7% this year, down from 7.5% last year, with 95GW of fresh demand entering the market, lifting total capacity to over 1300GW. Of the new capacity, only 30GW (100mtpa) is expected to be thermal, down from 36.5GW in 2013 and 51GW in 2012, with totals at 890GW. New Hydro units of 20GW are also expected, down from 30GW in 2013, with 300GW in total installed. Nuclear capacity will increase by 5GW in 2014, leading to 20GW in total installed. Solar plans to increase by 14GW this year to reach 30GW installed. Wind plans to add 18GW taking its total capacity to 90GW. Biomass will amount to 10GW. Premium Hard Coking Coal spot prices are trading in the $122-127/t Qld FOB range, with China CFR prices ranging $134-139/t. Sentiment appears to be bottoming for steels. Walter Energy could sell its Mobile port facility as part of efforts to shore up its balance sheet. The company lost $359m in 2013, caught by high cost operations and falling end-pricing: last year at this time, HCC was trading at $170/t Qld fob. On the Dalian Exchange, May-14 coke price traded RMB 6/t lower to RMB 1,328/t, while HCC prices closed off RMB 1/t to RMB 932/t, as sentiment began to stabilise. By Melinda Moore

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Global | Commodities 21 February 2014

Commodity Prices Base Metals LME 3 month

Open

Close

High

Low

Cash - 3m

1 717.50 7 185.00 2 124.00 14 265.00 23 050.00 2 035.00

Change in cash settle -9 -35 -31 -210 -180 -40

Aluminium Copper Lead Nickel Tin Zinc

1 764 7 175 2 155 14 491 23 170 2 055

1 772 7 155 2 138 14 365 23 095 2 049

1 774 7 180 2 162 14 540 23 170 2 059

1 753 7 113 2 134 14 300 22 950 2 027

Daily LME Stock Change (mt) Metal

Today

Yesterday

In

Cancelled warrants (%) 46 58 17 45 44 27

Contract turnover

-111 700 -81 075 -13 100 7 074 -1 255 -149 575

Cancelled warrants (mt) 2 466 150 165 125 34 150 122 196 3 705 210 400

5 346 375 285 350 201 350 268 710 8 430 783 900

5 353 425 289 600 201 275 269 214 8 430 788 875

0 0 100 0 0 0

Open 13480 50450 23 170

Last 13495 50510 23 095

1d Change 10 -50 0

COMEX Ali Feb'14 Cu Feb'14

Open 326.1

Close 325.6

Change -0.5

Change (%) -0.15

Aluminium

Copper

Lead

Nickel

Tin

Zinc

23 555 24 031

158 199 161 499

255 625 259 646

22 568 23 036

ZAR/USD fix 11.0900 11.2425

19 047 19 922

79 682 80 440

AM Fix

PM Fix

High bid

Low offer

Closing bid

1 313.75 1 419.00 737.00

1 316.25 21.59 1 413.00 736.00

1 325.17 21.90 1 420.38 738.50

1 307.41 21.41 1 406.75 729.45

1 322.72 21.82 1 415.00 736.80

Daily change 0.90 -0.11 -4.25 0.30

Gold Silver Platinum Palladium

-0.9/-0.5 -2/0 +1.5/+3.5 +0.0/+1.0

Forwards (%) Gold Silver USD Libor

1 month -0.052 0.62 0.1555

2 months -0.034 0.616 0.19695

3 months -0.012 0.618 0.2356

6 months 0.032 0.612 0.3295

12 months 0.112 0.568 0.5538

30-day RSI

10-day MA

20-day MA

Resistance

1 308.56 21.13 1 413.27 732.28

1 282.55 20.37 1 401.39 721.15

200-day MA 1 302.13 21.02 1 425.26 725.03

Support

59.71 59.82 52.12 54.2

100-day MA 1 266.79 20.54 1 404.10 726.97

1 316.40 21.61 1 415.27 735.82

1 325.69 21.88 1 424.87 738.12

COMEX SLV

NYMEX PLAT 1412.5 63377 2343

1320.5 1463 197

TOCOM GLD 4353 72500 -30242

CBOT GLD

21.775 145275 11988

NYMEX PAL 736.25 41179 4841

DGCX GLD

Settlement Open Interest Change in Open Interest

COMEX GLD 1320.9 390918 -3514

Energy Energy futures pricing Sing Gasoil ($/bbbl) Gasoil 0.1% Rdam ($/mt) NWE CIF jet ($/mt) Singapore Kero ($/bbl) 3.5% Rdam barges ($/mt) 1% Fuel Oil FOB ($/mt) Sing FO180 Cargo ($/mt)

1 month 123.982 936.5 988.14 123.184 579.462 625.63 613.95

Change -0.14 -1.00 -1.22 -0.13 0.38 1.37 0.78

2 month 125.297 933.5 997.39 124.427 587.813 636.09 618.021

Change -0.42 -0.50 -3.42 -0.37 1.22 3.31 2.05

3 month 124.802 929.25 995.29 123.932 586.268 627.35 615.435

Change -0.40 -0.25 -3.38 -0.42 1.03 2.49 1.61

6 month 123.164 920.5 989.7 122.804 583.813 617.94 612.088

Change -0.45 -0.50 -2.58 -0.47 0.89 1.19 1.04

Q2 14 76.25 74.40

Change -0.80 -0.55

Q3 14 77.20 74.85

Change -0.35 -0.40

Q4 14 79.15 76.05

Change -0.20 -0.45

Cal 15 81.60 78.15

Change -0.25 -0.20

Aluminium Copper Lead Nickel Tin Zinc Shanghai 3-month Aluminium Copper Zinc ZAR metal prices Cash 3-month

Daily change 8 -20 -17 -126 -75 -6

Change (%)

Cash Settle

0.44 -0.28 -0.80 -0.87 -0.32 -0.27

Out

One day change

YTD change (mt)

7 050 4 250 25 504 0 4 975

-7 050 -4 250 75 -504 0 -4 975

Precious metals

Technical Indicators Gold Silver Platinum Palladium Active Month Future

Thermal coal API2 (CIF ARA) API4 (FOB RBCT)

Source: LME, NYMEX, COMEX, SHFE, Standard Bank Research

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EFP's

1317.1 36 -277

-43.50 43.00 -18.00 -39.50 30.00 0.75

246 411 106 309 52 500 58 097 9 423 125 910

Standard Bank

Global | Commodities 21 February 2014

Commodity Prices Latest Price

1-week

1-month

3-month

6-month

1-year

Bulks Steel—Physical Turkish Scrap 80:20 (Iskinderun CFR) $/t China Tangshan Steel Billet $/t China HRC export (Shanghai FOB) $/t North Europe HRC domestic (ex-works) $/t North America HRC domestic (Midwest FOB) $/t

392.98 496.00 533.00 430.00 684.00

0.14% -1.59% 0.00% 0.00% 0.29%

1.96% -0.20% 0.19% 0.00% 0.15%

10.61% 1.43% 0.57% -1.71% 6.21%

10.86% -0.60% 6.18% -1.71% 8.06%

-0.80% -7.81% -6.16% -8.51% 8.40%

Steel—Futures LME Billet Cash $/t LME Billet Futures (1-mth) $/t LME Steel Billet Stocks—change Shanghai Rebar Futures (Active contract) $/t Shanghai Rebar Futures On-Warrant Stocks—change SHFE Rebar - Open Interest SHFE Rebar - Total Volume China Steel Inventory (million tonnes)

315.00 315.00 0.00 532.14 0.00 6420.00 1020.00 12.98

9.95% 9.95% -3.20% 1.25%

23.53% 23.53% -7.66% 0.39%

50.00% 48.58% -4.07% -10.12%

120.28% 115.75% 3.15% -18.71%

7.51% 6.78% -14.09% 1.55%

Iron ore China Iron Ore Fines (62% Fe; CFR Tianjin) $/t China Iron Ore Fines (58% Fe; CFR Tianjin) $/t SGX AsiaClear IO Swaps 62% Fe $/t (1-mth) Platinum China Iron Ore Inventory (million tonnes)

131.50 122.10 131.31 37358.00 81.50

-2.59% 1.08% -1.55% 0.26%

-5.67% -3.02% -5.31% 0.73%

-0.23% -0.33% 0.88% 16.30%

6.31% 6.82% 7.58% 12.62%

-17.03% -16.71% -13.11% 11.69%

Coking coal Premium Hard Coking Coal (Qld FOB) $/t

136.25

0.00%

-1.70%

-9.02%

-4.39%

-15.90%

Capesize freight Saldanha South Africa-Beilun China

17.75

-6.58%

-13.41%

-21.98%

31.48%

42.00%

6.06 4.02 2030.93

0.07% -19.28% -3.72%

-0.29% -10.67% -9.26%

-1.06% -10.67% -8.18%

-1.22% 11.67% 3.33%

-2.75% 34.45% -10.74%

Financials pricing RMB Currency China 7-day repo API2 (CIF ARA) Source: LME, SGX, McCloskey, SHFE, Bloomberg

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Global | Commodities 21 February 2014

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Global | Commodities 21 February 2014

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