Chart-pack on recent economic and financial market developments* 15 December 2015

As of the 30th of June, 2005 the Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary) publishes a comprehensive chart-pack about the latest information in financial markets and the macro-economy. Our aim is to provide analysts and the public with a frequently updated, easy-to-use, clear-cut data set, in order to promote better knowledge and understanding of the current economic and financial market situation. The updated chart-pack is published on the day of each rate-setting meeting at 5 pm. Earlier versions of the chart-pack are accessible on the website of Magyar Nemzeti Bank via the following address. http://www.mnb.hu/en/publications/studies-publications-statistics/chart-packon-recent-economic-and-financial-market-developments Questions and comments are welcome, and should be addressed to [email protected].

*

The data sources of this document, in whole or in part, do not fall within the scope of Act XLVI of 1993 on statistics, therefore the data contained in the tables and charts are not to be considered as official statistical data. Magyar Nemzeti Bank excludes all liability for any damage caused by the usage of the herein published non-official statistical data.

EUR/HUF (left-hand scale)

Source: Thomson Reuters.

Notes: reverse scale.

1

USD/HUF

CHF/HUF

9 Dec.

8 Dec.

7 Dec.

CHF/HUF

4 Dec.

3 Dec.

2 Dec.

1 Dec.

30 Nov.

27 Nov.

EUR/HUF

26 Nov.

24 Nov.

23 Nov.

20 Nov.

19 Nov.

18 Nov.

17 Nov.

16 Nov.

13 Nov.

12 Nov.

11 Nov.

10 Nov. 1 Jan. 2010 12 Feb. 26 Mar. 7 May 18 June 30 July 10 Sep. 22 Oct. 3 Dec. 14 Jan. 2011 25 Feb. 8 Apr. 20 May 1 July 15 Aug. 26 Sep. 7 Nov. 19 Dec. 30 Jan. 2012 12 Mar. 23 Apr. 4 June 17 July 28 Aug. 9 Oct. 20 Nov. 1 Jan. 2013 12 Feb. 26 Mar. 7 May 18 June 30 July 11 Sep. 23 Oct. 4 Dec. 15 Jan. 2014 26 Feb. 9 Apr. 21 May 3 July 15 Aug. 26 Sep. 7 Nov. 19 Dec. 30 Jan. 2015 13 Mar. 24 Apr. 8 June 20 July 1 Sep. 14 Oct. 25 Nov.

Interest Rates and Exchange Rates 11 December 2015

1. Developments in HUF exchange rate

HUF 176 HUF 176

196 196

216 216

236 236

256 256

276 276

296 296

316 316

336 336

USD/HUF

Source: Thomson Reuters.

Notes: reverse scale, daily observations.

2. Developments in HUF exchange rate (last 1 month)

HUF 300 HUF 280

302 282

304 284

306 286

308 288

310 290

312 292

314

294

316

296

318

298

320

300

EUR/HUF

EUR/PLN

Source: Thomson Reuters.

Notes: cumulative change, 5-minute frequency. Positive values mean appreciation.

2

EUR/CZK

EUR/RON

10 Dec.

9 Dec.

EUR/CZK

8 Dec.

7 Dec.

3 Dec.

2 Dec.

1 Dec.

EUR/PLN

30 Nov.

27 Nov.

26 Nov.

25 Nov.

24 Nov.

EUR/HUF

23 Nov.

20 Nov.

19 Nov.

18 Nov.

16 Nov.

13 Nov.

12 Nov.

11 Nov.

10 Nov.

9 Nov.

1 Jan. 2010 5 Feb. 12 Mar. 16 Apr. 21 May 25 June 30 July 3 Sep. 8 Oct. 12 Nov. 17 Dec. 21 Jan. 2011 25 Feb. 1 Apr. 6 May 10 June 15 July 22 Aug. 26 Sep. 31 Oct. 5 Dec. 9 Jan. 2012 13 Feb. 19 Mar. 23 Apr. 28 May 3 July 7 Aug. 11 Sep. 17 Oct. 21 Nov. 26 Dec. 30 Jan. 2013 6 Mar. 10 Apr. 15 May 19 June 24 July 29 Aug. 3 Oct. 7 Nov. 12 Dec. 16 Jan. 2014 20 Feb. 27 Mar. 1 May 5 June 11 July 18 Aug. 22 Sep. 27 Oct. 1 Dec. 5 Jan. 2015 11 Feb. 19 Mar. 23 Apr. 1 June 6 July 10 Aug. 17 Sep. 22 Oct. 26 Nov.

Interest Rates and Exchange Rates 11 December 2015

3. Emerging markets exchange rates

% 10 % 10

5 5

0 0

-5 -5

-10 -10

-15 -15

-20 -20

EUR/RON

Source: Thomson Reuters.

Notes: 1 January 2010 = 0; cumulative change. Positive values mean appreciation.

4. Emerging markets exchange rates (last 1 month)

% 2,0 % 2,0

1,5 1,5

1,0 1,0

0,5 0,5

0,0 0,0

-0,5 -0,5

-1,0

-1,0

-1,5

-1,5

-2,0

-2,0

-2,5

-2,5

CZK

PLN

RON

Source: Thomson Reuters.

Notes: cumulative change, 5-minute frequency. Positive values mean HUF appreciation.

3

ZAR

TRY

10 Dec.

ZAR

9 Dec.

8 Dec.

7 Dec.

3 Dec.

RON

2 Dec.

1 Dec.

30 Nov.

27 Nov.

PLN

26 Nov.

25 Nov.

24 Nov.

23 Nov.

CZK

20 Nov.

19 Nov.

18 Nov.

16 Nov.

13 Nov.

12 Nov.

11 Nov.

10 Nov.

9 Nov. 1 Jan. 2010 5 Feb. 12 Mar. 16 Apr. 21 May 25 June 30 July 3 Sep. 8 Oct. 12 Nov. 17 Dec. 21 Jan. 2011 25 Feb. 1 Apr. 6 May 10 June 15 July 22 Aug. 26 Sep. 31 Oct. 5 Dec. 9 Jan. 2012 13 Feb. 19 Mar. 23 Apr. 28 May 3 July 7 Aug. 11 Sep. 17 Oct. 21 Nov. 26 Dec. 30 Jan. 2013 6 Mar. 10 Apr. 15 May 19 June 24 July 29 Aug. 3 Oct. 7 Nov. 12 Dec. 16 Jan. 2014 20 Feb. 27 Mar. 1 May 5 June 11 July 18 Aug. 22 Sep. 27 Oct. 1 Dec. 5 Jan. 2015 11 Feb. 19 Mar. 23 Apr. 1 June 6 July 10 Aug. 17 Sep. 22 Oct. 26 Nov.

Interest Rates and Exchange Rates 11 December 2015

5. HUF vis-á-vis emerging market exchange rates

% 40 % 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0

-10 -10

-20 -20

-30 -30

TRY

Source: Thomson Reuters.

Notes: 1 January 2010 = 0; cumulative change. Positive values mean HUF appreciation.

6. HUF vis-á-vis emerging market exchange rates (last 1 month)

% 8

8

7 7

6 6

5 5

4 4

3 3

2 2

1 1

0

0

-1

-1

-2

-2

-3

-3

-4

-4

%

Interest Rates and Exchange Rates

11 December 2015

7. Implied and historical volatilities of the forint-euro exchange rate % 25

20

20

15

15

10

10

5

5

0

0 3 Jan. 2011 31 Jan. 28 Feb. 28 Mar. 25 Apr. 23 May 20 June 18 July 15 Aug. 12 Sep. 10 Oct. 7 Nov. 5 Dec. 2 Jan. 2012 30 Jan. 27 Feb. 26 Mar. 23 Apr. 21 May 18 June 16 July 13 Aug. 10 Sep. 8 Oct. 5 Nov. 3 Dec. 31 Dec. 28 Jan. 2013 25 Feb. 25 Mar. 22 Apr. 20 May 17 June 15 July 12 Aug. 9 Sep. 7 Oct. 4 Nov. 2 Dec. 30 Dec. 27 Jan. 2014 24 Feb. 24 Mar. 21 Apr. 19 May 16 June 14 July 12 Aug. 9 Sep. 7 Oct. 4 Nov. 2 Dec. 1 Jan. 2015 2 Feb. 2 Mar. 30 Mar. 30 Apr. 3 June 1 July 29 July 26 Aug. 23 Sep. 21 Oct. 18 Nov.

% 25

1 week (implied)

12 month (implied)

Historic (GARCH) volatility (rhs)

Source: Bloomberg. Notes: GARCH is weighted volatility calculated using historical data; implied volatility (based on foreign exchange option quotes) can be interpreted as an indicator of risk perceived by the market.

8. Risk reversal and skewness of exchange rate expectations %

5

10

4

8

3

6

2

4

1

2

0

0

-1

3 Jan. 2011 14 Feb. 28 Mar. 9 May 20 June 1 Aug. 12 Sep. 24 Oct. 5 Dec. 16 Jan. 2012 27 Feb. 9 Apr. 21 May 2 July 13 Aug. 24 Sep. 5 Nov. 17 Dec. 28 Jan. 2013 11 Mar. 22 Apr. 3 June 15 July 26 Aug. 7 Oct. 18 Nov. 30 Dec. 10 Feb. 2014 24 Mar. 5 May 16 June 29 July 9 Sep. 21 Oct. 2 Dec. 15 Jan. 2015 2 Mar. 16 Apr. 3 June 15 July 26 Aug. 7 Oct. 18 Nov.

12

Risk reversal

skewness (right-hand scale)

Source: Bloomberg. Notes: based on option quotes for 1-month 25D risk reversal; skewness=RR/Volatility*10. Risk reversal can be regarded as a "nominal" indicator for the skewness of the distribution of exchange rate expectations, while skewness eliminates the effect of changes in volatility.

4

Interest Rates and Exchange Rates

11 December 2015

9. Implied HUF yields based on FX-swap market trades and quotes

10. Difference between interbank yields and implied yields based on FX-swap markets basis points

basis points

% 10

% 10

400

8

8

350

350

6

6

300

300

4

4

250

250

2

2

200

200

0

0

150

150

-2

-2

100

100

50

50

-4

-4

0

0

-6

-6

3 Jan. 2011 14 Mar. 23 May 1 Aug. 10 Oct. 19 Dec. 27 Feb. 2012 7 May 16 July 24 Sep. 3 Dec. 11 Feb. 2013 22 Apr. 1 July 10 Sep. 19 Nov. 28 Jan. 2014 8 Apr. 17 June 28 Aug. 6 Nov. 15 Jan. 2015 26 Mar. 5 June 14 Aug. 23 Oct.

20 July 2012 14 Sep. 9 Nov. 4 Jan. 2013 1 Mar. 26 Apr. 21 June 16 Aug. 11 Oct. 6 Dec. 31 Jan. 2014 28 Mar. 23 May 18 July 12 Sep. 7 Nov. 2 Jan. 2015 27 Feb. 24 Apr. 19 June 14 Aug. 9 Oct. 4 Dec. Interest rate corridor

6 months

400

O/N

3 months (USDHUF)

6 months (USDHUF)

3 months (EURUSD)

6 months (EURUSD)

Source: MNB, Thomson Reuters.

Source: MNB, Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg.

Notes: implied forint yields based on USDHUF FX-swap trades in the case of O/N maturity, and based on USDHUF FX-swap quotes provided by Thomson Reuters in the cases of 6-month maturity.

Notes: implied yields based on USDHUF and EURUSD FX-swap quotes provided by Thomson Reuters; interbank HUF yields are estimated via spline method based on BUBOR, FRA, IRS data.

11. Difference between interbank yields and implied yields based on FX-swap markets basis points 300

basis points 300

250

250

200

200

150

150

100

100

50

50

0

0

Average spread of 3 month EUR/HUF transactions

Average spread of 6 month EUR/HUF transactions

22 Oct.

24 Nov.

24 Sep.

27 Aug.

28 July

30 June

4 May

2 June

2 Apr.

5 Mar.

5 Feb.

8 Jan. 2015

21 Nov.

22 Oct.

23 Sep.

29 July

27 Aug.

1 July

2 June

30 Apr.

2 Apr.

5 Mar.

5 Feb.

8 Jan. 2014

28 Oct.

-150 26 Nov.

-150 26 Sep.

-100 29 Aug.

-100 26 July

-50

28 June 2013

-50

Average spread of O/N EUR/HUF transactions

Source: MNB, Thomson Reuters. Notes: implied forint yields based on EURHUF FX-swap quotes provided by Thomson Reuters; interbank yields are estimated via spline method based on BUBOR, FRA, IRS data.

5

Interest Rates and Exchange Rates

11 December 2015

12. Implied 3 month forward interest rate curves (based 13. Implied 3 month forward interest rate curve (based on government securities yields) on interbank yields) % 5,5

% 5,5

% 5,5

% 5,5

5,0

5,0

5,0

5,0

4,5

4,5

4,5

4,5

4,0

4,0

4,0

4,0

3,5

3,5

3,5

3,5

3,0

3,0

3,0

3,0

2,5

2,5

2,5

2,5

2,0

2,0

2,0

2,0

1,5

1,5

1,5

1,5

1,0

1,0

1,0

1,0

0,5

0,5

0,5 0

1

2

3

4

9 November 2015

5

6

7

8

2 December 2015

9

0,5 0

years later

9 December 2015

1

2

3

4

9 November 2015

5

6

7

8

2 December 2015

9

years later

9 December 2015

Source: MNB, ÁKK.

Source: MNB, Thomson Reuters.

Notes: estimated by the MNB using the Svensson-technique.

Notes: estimated by the MNB from interbank money market (FRA) and interest rate swap quotes using the spline technique.

14. Spread between 3-month forward yields in EUR and HUF

15. Segmentation of the difference between the quoted rate of the 3 month FRA and the current base rate

% 5

% 5

4

4

3

3

2

2

1

1

0

0

-1

-1 0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

HUF (9 Dec. 2015)

EUR (25 Nov. 2015)

HUF (25 Nov. 2015)

Forward diff. (9 Dec. 2015)

Forward diff. (25 Nov. 2015)

basis points

20

10

10

0

0

-10

-10

-20

year

EUR (9 Dec. 2015)

Source: ÁKK, ECB, MNB.

20

basis points

-20 1x4

2x5

3x6

1x4

2015.11.11

2x5

3x6

2015.12.02

FRA-BUBOR difference

1x4

2x5

3x6

2015.12.09 BUBOR-base rate difference

FRA-base rate difference Source: Thomson Reuters.

Notes: estimated by the ECB using the Svensson-technique, based on AAA-rated euro Notes: based on FRA quotes provided by Tulett & Tokio Liberty on Reuters. Columns area central government bonds. represent the difference between the quoted rate of the 3 month forward rate agreement starting from the given date and the base rate.

6

Interest Rates and Exchange Rates

11 December 2015

16. 2-week rate expectations derived from money market rates

17. 2-week rate expectations derived from government bond yields

4,5

4,5

4,5

4,0

4,0

4,0

4,0

3,5

3,5

3,5

3,5

3,0

3,0

3,0

3,0

2,5

2,5

2,5

2,5

2,0

2,0

2,0

2,0

1,5

1,5

1,5

1,5

1,0

1,0

1,0

1,0

0,5

0,5

0,5

0,5

9 November 2015

2 December 2015

8 Jan. 2013

9 December 2015

9 November 2015

2 December 2015

Source: MNB, Thomson Reuters.

Source: MNB, ÁKK.

Notes: estimated by the MNB from interbank interest rates using the splinetechnique.

Notes: estimated by the MNB using the Svensson-technique.

15 Aug.

4,5

28 Mar. 2017

5,0

8 Nov.

5,0

21 June

5,0

15 Sep.

5,0

2 Feb. 2016

5,5

9 Dec.

5,5

28 Apr. 2015

5,5

22 July

5,5

4 Mar. 2014

% 6,0

28 May

% 6,0

15 Oct.

% 6,0

2 Jan. 2013 24 Apr. 14 Aug. 4 Dec. 26 Mar. 2014 16 July 5 Nov. 25 Feb. 2015 17 June 7 Oct. 27 Jan. 2016 18 May 7 Sep. 28 Dec. 19 Apr. 2017 9 Aug. 29 Nov.

% 6,0

9 December 2015

18. MNB base rate and money market rates 9

%

8

8

7

7

6

6

5

5

4

4

3

3

2

2

1

1

0

0 29 June 2012 27 July 28 Aug. 25 Sep. 25 Oct. 26 Nov. 24 Dec. 25 Jan. 2013 22 Feb. 25 Mar. 23 Apr. 23 May 20 June 18 July 15 Aug. 13 Sep. 11 Oct. 12 Nov. 10 Dec. 10 Jan. 2014 7 Feb. 7 Mar. 4 Apr. 6 May 3 June 2 July 31 July 29 Aug. 26 Sep. 24 Oct. 21 Nov. 19 Dec. 28 Jan. 2015 25 Feb. 25 Mar. 22 Apr. 27 May 24 June 22 July 19 Aug. 22 Sep. 22 Oct. 26 Nov.

% 9

O/N interbank

Baserate (2-week central bank bill)

3M BUBOR

1x4 FRA

O/N central bank deposit

O/N central bank loan

Source: MNB, ÁKK, Thomson Reuters. Notes: O/N interbank yield is the calculated average yield weighted by turnover data, FRA yield is the close mid-quote provided by Thomson Reuters.

7

Interest Rates and Exchange Rates

11 December 2015 20. Short-term government securities - interbank yield spreads

19. Short-term interbank yields

basis points

3 month

basis points

100

100

50

50

0

0

-50

-50

-100

-100

-150

-150 3 Jan. 2012 28 Feb. 3 May 2 July 28 Aug. 25 Oct. 4 Jan. 2013 1 Mar. 30 Apr. 27 June 26 Aug. 24 Oct. 20 Dec. 25 Feb. 2014 22 Apr. 19 June 14 Aug. 10 Oct. 8 Dec. 10 Feb. 2015 7 Apr. 3 June 4 Aug. 1 Oct. 1 Dec.

% 9,0 8,5 8,0 7,5 7,0 6,5 6,0 5,5 5,0 4,5 4,0 3,5 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 3 Jan. 2012 28 Feb. 24 Apr. 22 June 17 Aug. 15 Oct. 14 Dec. 14 Feb. 2013 15 Apr. 12 June 7 Aug. 7 Oct. 5 Dec. 10 Feb. 2014 7 Apr. 3 June 30 July 25 Sep. 21 Nov. 23 Jan. 2015 20 Mar. 18 May 13 July 9 Sep. 9 Nov.

% 9,0 8,5 8,0 7,5 7,0 6,5 6,0 5,5 5,0 4,5 4,0 3,5 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0

1 year

3 month

1 year

Source: MNB, Thomson Reuters.

Source: ÁKK, Thomson Reuters.

Notes: swap yields are estimated via spline method based on BUBOR, FRA, IRS data.

Notes: the bond yields are estimated via Svensson-, swap yields via spline method.

21. Long-term interbank yields

22. Long-term government security - interbank yield spreads basis points

basis points

% 8,5

% 8,5

225

8,0

8,0

200

200

7,5

7,5

7,0

7,0

175

175

6,5

6,5

150

150

6,0

6,0

125

125 100

225

5,5

5,5

100

5,0

5,0

75

75

4,5

4,5

50

50

4,0

4,0

3,5

3,5

25

25

3,0

3,0

0

0

2,5

2,5

-25

-25 -50 -75

2,0

1,5

1,5

-75

5 year

3 Jan. 2012 28 Feb. 3 May 2 July 28 Aug. 25 Oct. 4 Jan. 2013 1 Mar. 30 Apr. 27 June 26 Aug. 24 Oct. 20 Dec. 25 Feb. 2014 22 Apr. 19 June 14 Aug. 10 Oct. 8 Dec. 10 Feb. 2015 7 Apr. 3 June 4 Aug. 1 Oct. 1 Dec.

3 Jan. 2012 28 Feb. 24 Apr. 22 June 17 Aug. 15 Oct. 14 Dec. 14 Feb. 2013 15 Apr. 12 June 7 Aug. 7 Oct. 5 Dec. 10 Feb. 2014 7 Apr. 3 June 30 July 25 Sep. 21 Nov. 23 Jan. 2015 20 Mar. 18 May 13 July 9 Sep. 9 Nov.

2,0

-50

10 year

5 year

10 year

Source: MNB, Thomson Reuters.

Source: ÁKK, Thomson Reuters.

Notes: swap yields are estimated via spline method based on BUBOR, FRA, IRS data.

Notes: the bond yields are estimated via Svensson-, swap yields via spline method.

8

3M

6M

1Y

Source: Thomson Reuters, FTSE.

3Y

Notes: intraday 15-minute frequency data.

9

5Y

10Y

10 Dec 10.00

5Y

9 Dec 10.00

8 Dec 10.00

7 Dec 10.00

3Y

4 Dec 10.00

3 Dec 10.00

2 Dec 10.00

12M

1 Dec 10.00

30 Nov 10.00

27 Nov 10.00

3 Jan. 2011 28 Feb. 2 May 29 June 24 Aug. 19 Oct. 16 Dec. 10 Feb. 2012 12 Apr. 13 June 8 Aug. 4 Oct. 5 Dec. 6 Feb. 2013 8 Apr. 5 June 31 July 27 Sep. 26 Nov. 30 Jan. 2014 27 Mar. 28 May 25 July 22 Sep. 18 Nov. 21 Jan. 2015 18 Mar. 25 May 20 July 16 Sep. 13 Nov.

3 Jan. 2011 10 Mar. 1 June 4 Aug. 6 Oct. 13 Dec. 15 Feb. 2012 27 Apr. 4 July 7 Sep. 15 Nov. 24 Jan. 2013 2 Apr. 7 June 12 Aug. 16 Oct. 20 Dec. 3 Mar. 2014 9 May 14 July 17 Sep. 20 Nov. 30 Jan. 2015 8 Apr. 17 June 19 Aug. 27 Oct.

23. Short-term yields of benchmark government securities

26 Nov 10.00

25 Nov 10.00

6M

24 Nov 10.00

23 Nov 10.00

20 Nov 10.00

19 Nov 10.00

3M

18 Nov 10.00

17 Nov 10.00

16 Nov 10.00

13 Nov 10.00

12 Nov 10.00

11 Nov 10.00

10 Nov 10.00

Interest Rates and Exchange Rates 24. Long-term yields of benchmark government securities

11 December 2015

% 10 % 10 % 11 % 11

9 9 10 10

8 8 9 9

7 7 8 8

6 6 7 7

5 5 6 6

4 4 5 5

3 3 4 4

2 2 3 3

1 1 2 2

0 0 1 1

Source: ÁKK. Source: ÁKK. 10Y 15Y

Notes: daily reference yields provided by Government Debt Agency. Notes: daily reference yields provided by Government Debt Agency.

25. Yields of benchmark government securities

% 4,25 4,00 3,75 3,50 3,25 3,00 2,75 2,50 2,25 2,00 1,75 1,50 1,25 1,00 0,75 0,50 0,25 0,00

4,25 4,00 3,75 3,50 3,25 3,00 2,75 2,50 2,25 2,00 1,75 1,50 1,25 1,00 0,75 0,50 0,25 0,00

%

15Y

Financial Markets

11 December 2015

26. Spot turnover on the forint currency market HUF bn 600

27. Swap turnover on the forint currency market HUF bn 600

550

550

500

500

450

450

400

400

350

HUF bn 1000

HUF bn 1000

900

900

800

800

700

700

350

600

600

300

300

500

500

250

250

400

400

200

200

150

150

300

300

100

100

200

200

50

50

100

100

0

0

5-day MA

0 2 Jan. 2012 27 Feb. 24 Apr. 22 June 17 Aug. 15 Oct. 11 Dec. 11 Feb. 2013 10 Apr. 7 June 2 Aug. 30 Sep. 27 Nov. 24 Jan. 2014 21 Mar. 20 May 16 July 11 Sep. 7 Nov. 8 Jan. 2015 4 Mar. 30 Apr. 29 June 25 Aug. 20 Oct.

2 Jan. 2012 27 Feb. 24 Apr. 22 June 17 Aug. 15 Oct. 11 Dec. 11 Feb. 2013 10 Apr. 7 June 2 Aug. 30 Sep. 27 Nov. 24 Jan. 2014 21 Mar. 20 May 16 July 11 Sep. 7 Nov. 8 Jan. 2015 4 Mar. 30 Apr. 29 June 25 Aug. 20 Oct.

0

25-day MA

5-day MA

25-day MA

Source: MNB.

Source: MNB.

Notes: forint against foreign exchange deals by domestic banks; moving averages calculated based on deal date data.

Notes: forint against foreign exchange deals by domestic banks; moving averages calculated based on deal date data.

28. Forward turnover on the forint currency market

29. Option turnover on the forint currency market

HUF bn 240

200

200

160

160

120

120

80

80 40

0

0

5-day MA

HUF bn 80

70

70

60

60

50

50

40

40

30

30

20

20

10

10

0

0

2 Jan. 2012 27 Feb. 24 Apr. 22 June 17 Aug. 15 Oct. 11 Dec. 11 Feb. 2013 10 Apr. 7 June 2 Aug. 30 Sep. 27 Nov. 24 Jan. 2014 21 Mar. 20 May 16 July 11 Sep. 7 Nov. 8 Jan. 2015 4 Mar. 30 Apr. 29 June 25 Aug. 20 Oct.

40

HUF bn 80

2 Jan. 2012 27 Feb. 24 Apr. 22 June 17 Aug. 15 Oct. 11 Dec. 11 Feb. 2013 10 Apr. 7 June 2 Aug. 30 Sep. 27 Nov. 24 Jan. 2014 21 Mar. 20 May 16 July 11 Sep. 7 Nov. 8 Jan. 2015 4 Mar. 30 Apr. 29 June 25 Aug. 20 Oct.

HUF bn 240

25-day MA

5-day MA

25-day MA

Source: MNB.

Source: MNB.

Notes: forint against foreign exchange deals by domestic banks; moving averages calculated based on deal date data.

Notes: forint against foreign exchange deals by domestic banks; moving averages calculated based on deal date data.

10

Financial Markets

11 December 2015

30. Net FRA position of non-residents and FRA-base rate 31. Net Forint forward stock of residents and the spreads exchange rate HUF bn 0

EUR/HUF 255

100

260

200

265

300

270

400

275

500

280

600

285

700

290

800

295

900

300

1000

305

1100

310

1200

315

1300

320

1400

325

26 Jan. 2012 24 Apr. 23 July 16 Oct. 21 Jan. 2013 17 Apr. 12 July 9 Oct. 9 Jan. 2014 3 Apr. 3 July 29 Sep. 29 Dec. 25 Mar. 2015 23 June 21 Sep.

HUF bn 1650 1500 1350 1200 1050 900 750 600 450 300 150 0 -150 -300 -450 -600 -750

4 Jan. 2012 26 Mar. 15 June 7 Sep. 26 Nov. 14 Feb. 2013 10 May 1 Aug. 24 Oct. 16 Jan. 2014 9 Apr. 30 June 16 Sep. 9 Dec. 3 Mar. 2015 25 May 17 Aug. 6 Nov.

basis points 200 175 150 125 100 75 50 25 0 -25 -50 -75 -100 -125 -150 -175 -200

Base rate - 1x4 FRA yield differential Base rate - 3x6 FRA yield differential

net forward stock of residents (inverted scale)

net FRA position of foreigners (right-hand scale)

exchange rate (right-hand scale, inverted scale)

Source: MNB, Thomson Reuters.

Source: MNB.

Notes: Based on FRA yield quotes provided by Tulett & Tokio Liberty on Reuters and daily reporting by domestic banks on interest rate derivatives transactions. The net FRA position aggregates non-residents' FRA-payer (long) and FRA-receiver (short) transactions (at par values). Positive values (long positions) indicate more transactions, where non-residents are paying the fixed FRA yields and receiving the floating rates; the long position has a positive pay off when market yields eventually exceed the FRA-yield.

Notes: Based on the daily fx-reports of credit institutions. Due to the nature of the banks' daily report on FX transactions, the components of the statistic do not close to zero. As a result, the information contained in the data series is relevant mainly to evaluate the direction of short-term fluctuations. The MNB does not hold responsibility for the accuracy of the data. Revisions due to reporting errors and nonstandard transactions might lead to significant subsequent modifications of the data series.

32. Forint FX Swap stock of non-residents HUF billions 6000

HUF billions 6000

5000

5000

4000

4000

3000

3000

2000

2000

1000

1000

0

0 -1000

-2000

-2000

-3000

-3000 3 Jan. 2011 7 Feb. 14 Mar. 18 Apr. 23 May 27 June 1 Aug. 5 Sep. 10 Oct. 14 Nov. 19 Dec. 23 Jan. 2012 27 Feb. 2 Apr. 7 May 11 June 16 July 20 Aug. 24 Sep. 29 Oct. 3 Dec. 7 Jan. 2013 11 Feb. 18 Mar. 22 Apr. 27 May 1 July 5 Aug. 9 Sep. 14 Oct. 18 Nov. 23 Dec. 27 Jan. 2014 3 Mar. 7 Apr. 12 May 16 June 21 July 25 Aug. 29 Sep. 3 Nov. 8 Dec. 12 Jan. 2015 16 Feb. 23 Mar. 27 Apr. 1 June 6 July 10 Aug. 14 Sep. 19 Oct. 23 Nov.

-1000

HUF/FX - max 1W

HUF/FX - 1W-3M

HUF/FX - 3M-1Y

HUF/FX - min 1Y

FX/HUF - max 1W

FX/HUF - 1W-3M

FX/HUF - 3M-1Y

FX/HUF - min 1Y

Source: MNB. Notes: due to the nature of the banks' daily report on FX transactions, the components of the FX transactions statistic do not close to zero. As a result, the information contained in the data series on net forint purchase of non-resident investors - and its components - is relevant mainly to evaluate the direction of short-term fluctuations. An increase in the swap stock stands for swaps with a long forint spot leg. Based on the daily fx-reports of credit institutions.Calculated from swap transactions between credit institutions and non-resident investors. The MNB does not hold responsibility for the accuracy of the data. Revisions due to reporting errors and non-standard transactions might lead to significant subsequent modifications of the data series.

11

Financial Markets

11 December 2015 33. Non-residents' open FX-position in HUF

Long HUF - Short FX

Short HUF - Long FX

Total net position

03 Dec

26 Nov

19 Nov

12 Nov

05 Nov

29 Oct

22 Oct

15 Oct

08 Oct

01 Oct

24 Sep

17 Sep

09 Sep

02 Sep

26 Aug

HUF/EUR 285 287 289 291 293 295 297 299 301 303 305 307 309 311 313 315 317 319 321 323 325 19 Aug

12 Aug

Billion HUF 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60 -70 -80 -90 -100

EURHUF exchange rate (right-hand, inverted scale)

Source: MNB.

34. Non-residents' cumulated position in HUF and the EURHUF exchange rate Mrd Ft 400

forint/euro 260 272

0

284

-200

296

-400

308

-600

320

-800

332

-1000

344 3 Jan. 2011 7 Feb. 14 Mar. 18 Apr. 23 May 27 June 1 Aug. 6 Sep. 11 Oct. 15 Nov. 20 Dec. 24 Jan. 2012 28 Feb. 3 Apr. 8 May 12 June 18 July 22 Aug. 26 Sep. 31 Oct. 5 Dec. 9 Jan. 2013 13 Feb. 20 Mar. 24 Apr. 29 May 3 July 7 Aug. 12 Sep. 17 Oct. 21 Nov. 26 Dec. 30 Jan. 2014 6 Mar. 10 Apr. 15 May 19 June 25 July 1 Sep. 6 Oct. 10 Nov. 15 Dec. 19 Jan. 2015 23 Feb. 30 Mar. 5 May 9 June 14 July 19 Aug. 24 Sep. 29 Oct. 3 Dec.

200

Cumulated position

EURHUF (right, reverse scale)

Source: MNB.

12

Financial Markets

11 December 2015 35. Forint FX Swap stock of non-residents

HUF billions 4000

HUF billions 4000

3500

3500

3000

3000

2500

2500

2000

2000

1500

1500

1000

1000

500

500

0

0 -500 -1000

-1500

-1500

-2000

-2000

-2500

-2500 30 June 2011 8 Aug. 14 Sep. 21 Oct. 29 Nov. 5 Jan. 2012 13 Feb. 21 Mar. 27 Apr. 5 June 12 July 20 Aug. 26 Sep. 2 Nov. 11 Dec. 17 Jan. 2013 25 Feb. 3 Apr. 10 May 18 June 25 July 2 Sep. 9 Oct. 15 Nov. 24 Dec. 30 Jan. 2014 10 Mar. 16 Apr. 23 May 1 July 7 Aug. 15 Sep. 22 Oct. 28 Nov. 6 Jan. 2015 12 Feb. 23 Mar. 29 Apr. 5 June 14 July 20 Aug. 28 Sep. 4 Nov.

-500 -1000

total net FX swap stock of foreigners

cumulated HUF purchase of foreigners

Source: MNB. Notes: due to the nature of the banks' daily report on FX transactions, the components of the FX transactions statistic do not close to zero. As a result, the information contained in the data series on net forint purchase of non-resident investors - and its components - is relevant mainly to evaluate the direction of short-term fluctuations. An increase in the swap stock stands for swaps with a long forint spot leg. Based on the daily fx-reports of credit institutions.Calculated from swap transactions between credit institutions and non-resident investors. The MNB does not hold responsibility for the accuracy of the data. Revisions due to reporting errors and non-standard transactions might lead to significant subsequent modifications of the data series.

36. Forint financial assets held by non-residents HUF billions 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 -200 -400 -600 -800 -1000 -1200

2 Jan. 2008 13 Feb. 27 Mar. 13 May 24 June 5 Aug. 17 Sep. 31 Oct. 12 Dec. 30 Jan. 2009 13 Mar. 24 Apr. 9 June 21 July 2 Sep. 14 Oct. 26 Nov. 11 Jan. 2010 22 Feb. 7 Apr. 19 May 1 July 12 Aug. 24 Sep. 8 Nov. 17 Dec. 31 Jan. 2011 16 Mar. 27 Apr. 8 June 21 July 1 Sep. 13 Oct. 28 Nov. 10 Jan. 2012 21 Feb. 5 Apr. 22 May 4 July 15 Aug. 28 Sep. 15 Nov. 3 Jan. 2013 14 Feb. 29 Mar. 14 May 26 June 7 Aug. 20 Sep. 5 Nov. 17 Dec. 4 Feb. 2014 18 Mar. 30 Apr. 16 June 28 July 9 Sep. 21 Oct. 4 Dec. 22 Jan. 2015 5 Mar. 23 Apr. 8 June 20 July 2 Sep. 14 Oct. 7 Dec.

HUF billions 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 -200 -400 -600 -800 -1000 -1200

government securities

central bank (two-week) bills

equity

Source: MNB, KELER. Notes: 2 January 2008 = 0; cumulative change. Equity data are not comprehensive, it contains data for large- and mid-cap stocks quoted on the Budapest Stock Exchange.

13

Jan. 2012 Feb. 2012 Mar. 2012 Apr. 2012 May 2012 June 2012 July 2012 Aug. 2012 Sep. 2012 Oct. 2012 Nov. 2012 Dec. 2012 Jan. 2013 Feb. 2013 Mar. 2013 Apr. 2013 May 2013 June 2013 July 2013 Aug. 2013 Sep. 2013 Oct. 2013 Nov. 2013 Dec. 2013 Jan. 2014 Feb. 2014 Mar. 2014 Apr. 2014 May 2014 June 2014 July 2014 Aug. 2014 Sep. 2014 Oct. 2014 Nov. 2014 Dec. 2014 Jan. 2015 Feb. 2015 Mar. 2015 Apr. 2015 May 2015 June 2015 July 2015 Aug. 2015 Sep. 2015 Oct. 2015 Nov. 2015 Dec. 2015 2 Jan. 2014 16 Jan. 30 Jan. 13 Feb. 27 Feb. 13 Mar. 27 Mar. 10 Apr. 25 Apr. 13 May 27 May 11 June 25 June 9 July 23 July 6 Aug. 21 Aug. 4 Sep. 18 Sep. 2 Oct. 16 Oct. 3 Nov. 17 Nov. 1 Dec. 15 Dec. 6 Jan. 2015 20 Jan. 3 Feb. 17 Feb. 3 Mar. 17 Mar. 31 Mar. 15 Apr. 29 Apr. 14 May 29 May 12 June 26 June 10 July 24 July 7 Aug. 25 Aug. 8 Sep. 22 Sep. 6 Oct. 20 Oct. 4 Nov. 18 Nov. 2 Dec.

Financial Markets

Total amount

T-Bill redemption

11 December 2015

37. Change in government securities of non-residents by tenor

HUF Bln 1800 HUF Bln 1800

1500 1500

1200 1200

900 900

600 600

300

0

300

0

-300 -300

-600 -600

-900 -900

-1200 -1200

-1500 -1500

-1800 -1800

Maturing before 31 Dec. 2015

T-Bond redemption Maturing between 1 Jan. 2016 and 31 Dec. 2018

T-Bill auction

Source: MNB.

Notes: monthly change. The last month contains information on available data.

14

T-Bond auction

Maturing later than 1 Jan. 2019

Source: MNB.

Notes: 2 January 2014 = 0; cumulative change without central bank bills.

38. Government securities held by non-residents

HUF bln 300 HUF bln 300

250 250

200 200

150 150

100 100

50 50

-50 0 0

-50

-100 -100

-150 -150

-200

-200

-250

-250

-300

-300

-350

-350

-400

-400

Secondary market

Total

Financial Markets

11 December 2015

39. Government securities held by non-residents and the 40. Government securities held by non-residents and proportion to the total amount outstanding the proportion to the total amount outstanding HUF bn 5250

% 41

HUF bn 5400

80

5000

40

5250

75

4750

39

5100

70

4500

38

4950

65

4250

37

4800

60

4000

36

4650

55

3750

35

4500

50

3500

34

4350

45

3250

33

4200

40

3000

32

4050

35

2750

31

3900

30

2500

30

3750

25

2250

29

3600

20

2000

28

3450 2 June 2014 24 June 15 July 5 Aug. 27 Aug. 17 Sep. 8 Oct. 31 Oct. 21 Nov. 12 Dec. 9 Jan. 2015 30 Jan. 20 Feb. 13 Mar. 3 Apr. 27 Apr. 19 May 10 June 1 July 22 July 12 Aug. 4 Sep. 25 Sep. 16 Oct. 9 Nov. 30 Nov.

2 Jan. 2006 11 July 30 Nov. 2 May 2007 21 Sep. 21 Feb. 2008 16 July 8 Dec. 5 May 2009 24 Sep. 16 Feb. 2010 9 July 30 Nov. 20 Apr. 2011 9 Sep. 1 Feb. 2012 28 June 23 Nov. 23 Apr. 2013 16 Sep. 12 Feb. 2014 8 July 28 Nov. 27 Apr. 2015 18 Sep.

% 85

stock (right-hand scale)

stock (right-hand scale)

percentage of total amount outstanding

percentage of total amount outstanding

Source: MNB.

Source: MNB.

Notes: MNB calculations excluding central bank bills.

Notes: MNB calculations excluding central bank bills.

41. The average time to maturity of residents' and nonresidents' government security portfolio

42. The relative average time to maturity of residents' and non-residents' government security portfolio

year 5,4

year 5,4

5,2

5,2

5,0

5,0

4,8

month 18

month 18

4,8

12

12

4,6

4,6

9

9

4,4

4,4

4,2

4,2

6

6

4,0

4,0

3

3

3,8

3,8

3,6

3,6

0

0

3,4

3,4

-3

-3

3,2

3,2

-6

-6

3,0

3,0

2,8

2,8

-9

-9

2,6

2,6

-12

-12

total

non-residents

5 Jan. 2009 28 Mar. 24 June 17 Sep. 11 Dec. 9 Mar. 2010 4 June 30 Aug. 23 Nov. 15 Feb. 2011 12 May 5 Aug. 28 Oct. 25 Jan. 2012 23 Apr. 19 July 15 Oct. 18 Jan. 2013 16 Apr. 11 July 7 Oct. 8 Jan. 2014 2 Apr. 2 July 24 Sep. 19 Dec. 20 Mar. 2015 17 June 11 Sep. 7 Dec.

15

26 Jan. 2010 22 Apr. 16 July 11 Oct. 4 Jan. 2011 30 Mar. 24 June 16 Sep. 13 Dec. 7 Mar. 2012 7 June 3 Sep. 30 Nov. 1 Mar. 2013 30 May 26 Aug. 20 Nov. 19 Feb. 2014 19 May 12 Aug. 7 Nov. 6 Feb. 2015 5 May 29 July 26 Oct.

15

residents

non-residents

residents

Source: MNB.

Source: MNB.

Notes: MNB calculations including T-Bonds and T-Bills and excluding central bank (two-week) bills.

Notes: MNB calculations; including T-Bonds and T-Bills, and excluding central bank (two week) bills.

15

Financial Markets

11 December 2015

43. The turnover and yield data of the Hungarian primary t-bill and t-bond issues HUF billions 3 month T-bill 200

% 4,0

10 year T-bond

5 year T-bond

3 year T-bond

12 month T-bill

2,0

75

1,5

50

1,0

25

0,5

0

0,0

Total bid (billion HUF)

Accepted (billion HUF)

Max yield (% - rhs)

Avg yield (% - rhs)

26 Nov. 2015

29 Oct. 2015

26 Nov. 2015

3 Dec. 2015

3 Dec. 2015

19 Nov. 2015

8 Dec. 2015

1 Dec. 2015

Announced (billion HUF)

15 Oct. 2015

100

19 Nov. 2015

2,5

12 Nov. 2015

125

26 Nov. 2015

3,0

12 Nov. 2015

150

5 Nov. 2015

3,5

24 Nov. 2015

175

Min yield (% - rhs)

Source: ÁKK. Notes: the turnover and yield data of the Hungarian primary t-bill and t-bond issues. In case of floating rate bonds the yield data are not be plotted.

44. Government securities issues, buybacks, redemptions

T-bond issuance

Net T-bill issuance

Bonds bought back

Source: ÁKK.

16

Bonds matured

7 Oct.

6 Dec.

8 Aug.

9 June

10 Apr.

9 Feb. 2015

12 Oct.

11 Dec.

13 Aug.

14 June

15 Apr.

14 Feb. 2014

16 Dec.

17 Oct.

18 Aug.

19 June

20 Apr.

19 Feb. 2013

21 Dec.

22 Oct.

23 Aug.

24 June

25 Apr.

25 Feb. 2012

27 Dec.

28 Oct.

29 Aug.

30 June

1 May

HUF bn 2400 2200 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 -200 -400 -600 -800 -1000 -1200 2 Mar.

1 Jan. 2011

HUF bn 2400 2200 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 -200 -400 -600 -800 -1000 -1200

Net change

Financial Markets

11 December 2015

45. Turnover on the forint unsecured interbank market 46. Turnover on the forint FRA market HUF bn 300

HUF bn 300

275

250

250

225

225

200

200

175

175

150

150

125

125

100

100

75

75

50

50

25

25

0

0

175

175

150

150

125

125

100

100

75

75

50

50

25

25

0

0

2 Jan. 2012 27 Mar. 22 June 17 Sep. 11 Dec. 11 Mar. 2013 7 June 2 Sep. 27 Nov. 24 Feb. 2014 21 May 14 Aug. 10 Nov. 5 Feb. 2015 4 May 28 July 21 Oct. 5-day moving averages

HUF bn 200

2 Jan. 2012 27 Mar. 22 June 17 Sep. 11 Dec. 11 Mar. 2013 7 June 2 Sep. 27 Nov. 24 Feb. 2014 21 May 14 Aug. 10 Nov. 5 Feb. 2015 4 May 28 July 21 Oct.

275

HUF bn 200

25-day moving averages

5-day moving averages

25-day moving averages

Source: MNB.

Source: MNB.

Notes: deal dates, based on reporting by domestic banks; central moving averages.

Notes: deal dates, based on reporting by domestic banks; central moving averages.

47. Turnover on the secondary market of government securities

less than 1 year

1 to 3 years

3 to 5 years

Source: KELER Notes: 10-day moving averages.

17

more than 5 years

19 Oct

24 July

30 Apr

5 Feb 2015

7 Nov

14 Aug

21 May

24 Feb 2014

27 Nov

2 Sep

7 June

11 Mar 2013

12 Dec

17 Sep

22 June

HUF bln 450 425 400 375 350 325 300 275 250 225 200 175 150 125 100 75 50 25 0 27 Mar

2 Jan 2012

HUF bln 450 425 400 375 350 325 300 275 250 225 200 175 150 125 100 75 50 25 0

International and Regional Environment

11 December 2015 48. ECB policy rate expectations

11 November 2015

3 December 2015

3 Oct.

28 Nov.

8 Aug.

13 June

18 Apr.

21 Feb. 2017

1 Nov.

27 Dec.

6 Sep.

17 May

12 July

22 Mar.

26 Jan. 2016

6 Oct.

1 Dec.

11 Aug.

16 June

21 Apr.

-0,50 24 Feb. 2015

-0,50

4 Nov.

-0,25

30 Dec.

-0,25

9 Sep.

0,00

20 May

0,00

15 July

0,25

25 Mar.

0,25

28 Jan. 2014

0,50

8 Oct.

0,50

3 Dec.

0,75

13 Aug.

0,75

23 Apr.

1,00

18 June

1,00

26 Feb.

% 1,25

1 Jan. 2013

% 1,25

9 December 2015

Source: ECB. Notes: estimated by the ECB using the Svensson-technique, based on AAA-rated euro area central government bonds.

49. Fed policy rate expectations

11 November 2015

3 December 2015

Source: Thomson Reuters. Notes: derived from Fed funds futures contracts.

18

9 December 2015

5 Dec.

6 Oct.

7 Aug.

8 June

9 Apr.

8 Feb. 2017

10 Dec.

11 Oct.

12 Aug.

13 June

14 Apr.

14 Feb. 2016

16 Dec.

17 Oct.

18 Aug.

19 June

20 Apr.

19 Feb. 2015

0,00 21 Dec.

0,00 22 Oct.

0,25

23 Aug.

0,25

24 June

0,50

25 Apr.

0,50

25 Feb. 2014

0,75

27 Dec.

0,75

28 Oct.

1,00

29 Aug.

1,00

30 June

1,25

1 May.

1,25

2 Mar.

% 1,50

1 Jan. 2013

% 1,50

EUR

Source: Thomson Reuters.

19

9 Oct.

17 July

USD

7 Dec.

basis points 200

12 Oct.

Fed funds target rate

17 Aug.

22 June

24 Apr.

27 Feb.

2 Jan. 2015

7 Nov.

12 Sep.

CHF yield

21 May

26 Mar.

29 Jan. 2014

4 Dec.

SNB

13 Aug.

18 June

23 Apr.

26 Feb.

EUR yield

1 Jan. 2013

6 Nov.

11 Sep.

17 July

22 May

27 Mar.

ECB

31 Jan. 2012

6 Dec.

11 Oct.

16 Aug.

20 June

25 Apr.

28 Feb.

3 Jan. 2011 1 Jan. 2009 26 Feb. 23 Apr. 18 June 13 Aug. 8 Oct. 3 Dec. 28 Jan. 2010 25 Mar. 20 May 15 July 28 Sep. 29 Nov. 24 Jan. 2011 21 Mar. 16 May 11 July 5 Sep. 31 Oct. 26 Dec. 20 Feb. 2012 16 Apr. 11 June 6 Aug. 1 Oct. 29 Nov. 24 Jan. 2013 21 Mar. 16 May 11 July 5 Sep. 31 Oct. 26 Dec. 20 Feb. 2014 17 Apr. 12 June 8 Aug. 3 Oct. 28 Nov. 18 Feb. 2015 15 Apr. 18 June 13 Aug. 8 Oct. 3 Dec.

International and Regional Environment 11 December 2015

50. Policy rates of the ECB, Fed, Swiss National Bank and the 3-month money market interest rates

% 3,0 % 3,0

2,5 2,5

2,0 2,0

1,5 1,5

1,0 1,0

0,5 0,5

0,0 0,0

-0,5 -0,5

-1,0 -1,0

-1,5 -1,5

-2,0 -2,0

-2,5 -2,5

USD yield

Source: Thomson Reuters.

51. 3 month interbank and treasury yield spreads basis points 200

175 175

150 150

125 125

100 100

75 75

50

50

25

25

0

0

3 Jan. 2011 14 Feb. 28 Mar. 9 May 20 June 1 Aug. 12 Sep. 24 Oct. 5 Dec. 16 Jan. 2012 27 Feb. 10 Apr. 22 May 3 July 14 Aug. 25 Sep. 7 Nov. 19 Dec. 4 Feb. 2013 18 Mar. 29 Apr. 10 June 22 July 2 Sep. 14 Oct. 25 Nov. 6 Jan. 2014 17 Feb. 31 Mar. 12 May 23 June 5 Aug. 16 Sep. 28 Oct. 9 Dec. 20 Jan. 2015 3 Mar. 17 Apr. 4 June 16 July 27 Aug. 8 Oct. 19 Nov. 4 Jan. 2011 8 Feb. 15 Mar. 19 Apr. 26 May 30 June 4 Aug. 9 Sep. 14 Oct. 18 Nov. 23 Dec. 30 Jan. 2012 5 Mar. 11 Apr. 17 May 21 June 26 July 30 Aug. 4 Oct. 8 Nov. 13 Dec. 22 Jan. 2013 28 Feb. 8 Apr. 14 May 18 June 23 July 28 Aug. 2 Oct. 6 Nov. 11 Dec. 20 Jan. 2014 24 Feb. 28 Mar. 7 May 11 June 17 July 22 Aug. 26 Sep. 31 Oct. 5 Dec. 14 Jan. 2015 18 Feb. 25 Mar. 1 May 5 June 10 July 14 Aug. 18 Sep. 23 Oct. 27 Nov.

International and Regional Environment 11 December 2015

52. 3 month LIBOR - OIS spreads

basis points 100 basis points 100

75 75

50 50

25 25

0 0

EUR USD

Source: Thomson Reuters.

53. Long-term EUR and USD benchmark yields

% 4,0 % 4,0

3,5 3,5

3,0 3,0

2,5 2,5

2,0 2,0

1,5 1,5

1,0 1,0

0,5

0,5

0,0

0,0

10-year EUR

10-year USD

Source: Thomson Reuters.

Notes: based on benchmark yield data provided by Thomson Reuters.

20

2 Jan. 2012 31 Jan. 29 Feb. 29 Mar. 27 Apr. 28 May 26 June 25 July 23 Aug. 21 Sep. 22 Oct. 20 Nov. 19 Dec. 17 Jan. 2013 15 Feb. 18 Mar. 16 Apr. 15 May 13 June 12 July 12 Aug. 10 Sep. 9 Oct. 7 Nov. 6 Dec. 6 Jan. 2014 4 Feb. 5 Mar. 3 Apr. 2 May 2 June 1 July 30 July 28 Aug. 26 Sep. 27 Oct. 25 Nov. 24 Dec. 22 Jan. 2015 20 Feb. 23 Mar. 21 Apr. 20 May 18 June 17 July 17 Aug. 15 Sep. 14 Oct. 12 Nov. 3 Jan. 2011 31 Jan. 28 Feb. 28 Mar. 25 Apr. 23 May 20 June 18 July 16 Aug. 13 Sep. 11 Oct. 8 Nov. 6 Dec. 3 Jan. 2012 31 Jan. 28 Feb. 27 Mar. 24 Apr. 22 May 19 June 18 July 15 Aug. 12 Sep. 10 Oct. 7 Nov. 5 Dec. 2 Jan. 2013 30 Jan. 27 Feb. 27 Mar. 24 Apr. 22 May 19 June 17 July 14 Aug. 12 Sep. 10 Oct. 7 Nov. 5 Dec. 2 Jan. 2014 30 Jan. 27 Feb. 27 Mar. 24 Apr. 22 May 19 June 18 July 18 Aug. 15 Sep. 13 Oct. 10 Nov. 8 Dec. 5 Jan. 2015 2 Feb. 2 Mar. 30 Mar. 27 Apr. 26 May 23 June 21 July 18 Aug. 15 Sep. 13 Oct. 10 Nov. 8 Dec.

International and Regional Environment 11 December 2015

54. Major currencies versus the dollar

% 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 -35 -40 -45 -50 -55 -60 % 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 -35 -40 -45 -50 -55 -60

USD/EUR USD/GBP USD/CHF

USD/barrel; index values

Source: Thomson Reuters.

Notes: Brent crude oil and gold buillon: nominal values, *Standard&Poor's Goldman Sachs Commodity index: 2 January 2012=100.

21 USD/JPY

Source: Thomson Reuters.

Notes: 3 January 2011 = 0; cumulative change. Positive values indicate USD depreciation.

55. Commodity benchmarks

140 USD/ounce

2000

120 1800

100 1600

80 1400

60 1200

40

1000

20

800

Brent crude oil (USD/barrel)

S&P GSCI main index*

S&P GSCI agricultural and livestock index*

Gold bullion (USD/troy ounce, right-hand scale)

BUX (Hungary)

PX50 (Czech Rep.)

5 Apr.

Source: Thomson Reuters.

Notes: 4 January 2011 = 0; cumulative change.

22

Shanghai Composite

WIG (Poland)

28 Oct.

8 Sep.

17 July

29 May

FTSE 100

7 Apr.

13 Feb. 2015

18 Dec.

28 Oct.

5 Sep.

16 July

26 May

S&P 500

1 Apr.

11 Feb. 2014

16 Dec.

25 Oct.

5 Sep.

16 July

28 May

DJ STOXX

12 Feb. 2013

18 Dec.

26 Oct.

5 Sep.

17 July

29 May

3 Apr.

10 Feb. 2012

22 Dec.

3 Nov.

13 Sep.

25 July

3 June

14 Apr.

22 Feb.

4 Jan. 2011 4 Jan. 2011 1 Feb. 1 Mar. 29 Mar. 28 Apr. 26 May 23 June 21 July 19 Aug. 16 Sep. 14 Oct. 11 Nov. 9 Dec. 9 Jan. 2012 6 Feb. 5 Mar. 2 Apr. 3 May 31 May 28 June 26 July 23 Aug. 20 Sep. 18 Oct. 15 Nov. 13 Dec. 15 Jan. 2013 12 Feb. 13 Mar. 12 Apr. 10 May 7 June 5 July 2 Aug. 2 Sep. 30 Sep. 28 Oct. 25 Nov. 23 Dec. 23 Jan. 2014 20 Feb. 20 Mar. 17 Apr. 19 May 16 June 15 July 14 Aug. 12 Sep. 13 Oct. 10 Nov. 9 Dec. 13 Jan. 2015 11 Feb. 11 Mar. 10 Apr. 11 May 8 June 6 July 4 Aug. 1 Sep. 30 Sep. 28 Oct. 25 Nov.

International and Regional Environment 11 December 2015

56. Developed market stock indices

% 110 % 110

100 100

90 90

80 80

70 70

60 60

50 50

40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0

-10 -10

-20 -20

-30 -30

NIKKEI 225

Source: Thomson Reuters.

Notes: 4 January 2011 = 0; cumulative change.

57. Emerging market stock indices

% 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60 -70

% 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60 -70

RTS (Russia)

International and Regional Environment

11 December 2015 58. Major risk aversion indicators

% 50

basis points 500

40

400

30

300

20

200

10

100

VIX index

EUR/USD 1 month implied volatility

2 Nov.

10 Aug.

18 May.

23 Feb.2015

1 Dec.

8 Sep.

16 Jun.

24 Mar.2014

30 Dec.

7 Oct.

15 Jul.

22 Apr.

28 Jan.2013

5 Nov.

13 Aug.

21 May.

27 Feb.2012

5 Dec.

12 Sep.

20 Jun.

28 Mar.

0 3 Jan.2011

0

EMBI Global (right-hand scale)

Source: Thomson Reuters; JP Morgan. Notes: increases indicate declining risk appetite or increasing risk aversion. VIX is the implied volatility of S&P500 index.

59. Key CDS composite indices basis points 350

basis points 1050

300

900

250

750

200

600

150

450

100

300

50

150

iTraxx Europe

iTraxx Europe HiVol

iTraxx Crossover (right-hand scale)

CDX high yield (right-hand scale)

2 Oct.

13 July

20 Apr.

28 Jan. 2015

5 Nov.

13 Aug.

22 May

18 Mar. 2014

26 Dec.

7 Oct.

15 July

22 Apr.

28 Jan. 2013

5 Nov.

13 Aug.

21 May

27 Feb. 2012

5 Dec.

12 Sep.

20 June

28 Mar.

0 3 Jan. 2011

0

CDX investment grade

Source: Thomson Reuters. Notes: iTraxx Europe index is composed of the most liquid 125 CDS referencing European investment grade names. iTraxx HiVol is a subset of the main index consisting of the 30 most risky constituents. Crossover index comprises the 45 most liquid sub-investment grade entities. CDX North American Investment Grade index consists of 125 names, CDX North American High Yield index comprises 100 names.

23

International and Regional Environment

11 December 2015

60. 5 year sovereign CDS spreads in emerging markets basis points 800

basis points 800

700

700

600

600

500

500

400

400

300

300

200

200

100

100

Hungary

Bulgaria

2 Dec.

9 Sep.

21 Oct.

29 July

6 May

Croatia

17 June

25 Mar.

31 Dec.

11 Feb. 2015

8 Oct.

19 Nov.

27 Aug.

4 June

16 July

23 Apr.

12 Mar.

29 Jan. 2014

6 Nov.

Romania

18 Dec.

25 Sep.

14 Aug.

3 July

22 May

10 Apr.

27 Feb.

5 Dec.

16 Jan. 2013

24 Oct.

1 Aug.

12 Sep.

9 May

20 June

28 Mar.

15 Feb.

0 4 Jan. 2012

0

CEEMEA SovX

Source: Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg. Notes: CEEMEA is a composite index calculated from the 15 most liquid sovereign CDS-speads in the CEEMEA region.

61. 5 year sovereign CDS spreads in emerging markets (last months) basis points 350

basis points 350

150

100

100

Romania

Bulgaria

12 Nov.

9 Oct.

17 Sep.

26 Aug. Hungary

Croatia

Source: Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg. Notes: CEEMEA is a composite index calculated from the 15 most liquid sovereign CDS-speads in the CEEMEA region.

24

4 Dec.

150

24 Nov.

200

2 Nov.

200

21 Oct.

250

29 Sep.

250

7 Sep.

300

14 Aug.

300

CEEMEA SovX

International and Regional Environment

11 December 2015

62. 5 year sovereign CDS spreads in peripherial eurozone countries basis points 1600 1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

3 Jan. 2011 14 Feb. 28 Mar. 9 May 20 June 1 Aug. 12 Sep. 24 Oct. 5 Dec. 16 Jan. 2012 27 Feb. 9 Apr. 21 May 2 July 13 Aug. 24 Sep. 5 Nov. 17 Dec. 28 Jan. 2013 11 Mar. 22 Apr. 3 June 15 July 26 Aug. 7 Oct. 18 Nov. 30 Dec. 10 Feb. 2014 24 Mar. 5 May 16 June 28 July 8 Sep. 20 Oct. 1 Dec. 12 Jan. 2015 23 Feb. 6 Apr. 18 May 29 June 10 Aug. 21 Sep. 2 Nov.

basis points 1600 1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

Spain

Italy

Ireland

WE SovX

Portugal

Source: Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg. WE SovX is a composite index calculated from the 15 most liquid sovereign CDS-speads in the Western European region.

63. 5 year sovereign CDS spreads in peripherial eurozone countries (last months) basis points

basis points

150

100

100

50

50

0

0

Spain

Ireland

WE SovX

Source: Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg. WE SovX is a composite index calculated from the 15 most liquid sovereign CDS-speads in the Western European region.

25

24 Nov.

29 Sep. Italy

8 Dec.

150

10 Nov.

200

27 Oct.

200

13 Oct.

250

15 Sep.

250

1 Sep.

300

18 Aug.

300

Portugal

International and Regional Environment

11 December 2015

64. 5 year sovereign CDS spreads in emerging European 65. 5 year sovereign CDS spreads in emerging European countries countries (last months) basis points

basis points

700

700

600

600

500

500

400

650

400

300

300

200

200

100

100

Czech Republic

Turkey

Estonia

650 600

550

550

500

500

450

450

400

400

350

350

300

300

250

250

200

200

150

150

100

100

50

50

0

0

0

Poland

basis points

600

7 Jan. 2014 18 Feb. 1 Apr. 13 May 24 June 5 Aug. 16 Sep. 28 Oct. 9 Dec. 20 Jan. 2015 3 Mar. 14 Apr. 26 May 7 July 18 Aug. 29 Sep. 10 Nov.

3 Jan. 2011 14 Mar. 23 May 1 Aug. 10 Oct. 19 Dec. 27 Feb. 2012 7 May 16 July 24 Sep. 3 Dec. 11 Feb. 2013 22 Apr. 1 July 9 Sep. 18 Nov. 27 Jan. 2014 7 Apr. 16 June 25 Aug. 3 Nov. 12 Jan. 2015 23 Mar. 1 June 10 Aug. 19 Oct.

0

basis points

Russia

Source: Thomson Reuters.

Poland

Czech Republic

Turkey

Estonia

Russia

Source: Thomson Reuters.

66. Emerging market sovereign foreign currency bond spreads

Hungary

all emerging

Latin America

CEE

5 Oct.

30 Nov.

10 Aug.

20 Apr.

15 June

29 Dec.

23 Feb. 2015

8 Sep.

3 Nov.

19 May

14 July

24 Mar.

27 Jan. 2014

7 Oct.

2 Dec.

12 Aug.

17 June

22 Apr.

25 Feb. 2013

5 Nov.

31 Dec.

10 Sep.

21 May

16 July

26 Mar.

5 Dec.

30 Jan. 2012

10 Oct.

15 Aug.

25 Apr.

basis points 900 850 800 750 700 650 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 20 June

28 Feb.

3 Jan. 2011

basis points 900 850 800 750 700 650 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0

Asia

Source: Thomson Reuters. Notes: calculated from JP Morgan Euro EMBI data. The series are differences between euro denominated (liquid) foreign currency bond yields and euro zero coupon yields of the corresponding maturities.

26

3 Jan. 2011 31 Jan. 28 Feb. 28 Mar. 26 Apr. 24 May 22 June 20 July 17 Aug. 14 Sep. 12 Oct. 10 Nov. 8 Dec. 6 Jan. 2012 3 Feb. 2 Mar. 2 Apr. 3 May 1 June 29 June 27 July 28 Aug. 25 Sep. 25 Oct. 26 Nov. 24 Dec. 25 Jan. 2013 22 Feb. 25 Mar. 23 Apr. 23 May 20 June 18 July 15 Aug. 13 Sep. 11 Oct. 12 Nov. 10 Dec. 10 Jan. 2014 7 Feb. 7 Mar. 4 Apr. 6 May 3 June 2 July 30 July 28 Aug. 25 Sep. 23 Oct. 20 Nov. 18 Dec. 23 Jan. 2015 20 Feb. 20 Mar. 17 Apr. 18 May 15 June 13 July 10 Aug. 8 Sep. 6 Oct. 4 Nov. 2 Dec.

3 Jan. 2011 14 Feb. 30 Mar. 12 May 24 June 5 Aug. 19 Sep. 2 Nov. 14 Dec. 26 Jan. 2012 8 Mar. 24 Apr. 8 June 20 July 4 Sep. 19 Oct. 6 Dec. 24 Jan. 2013 7 Mar. 22 Apr. 5 June 17 July 2 Sep. 14 Oct. 27 Nov. 15 Jan. 2014 26 Feb. 9 Apr. 23 May 8 July 22 Aug. 3 Oct. 14 Nov. 5 Jan. 2015 18 Feb. 1 Apr. 20 May 1 July 13 Aug. 30 Sep. 19 Nov.

International and Regional Environment

Lithuania

11 December 2015

67. Policy rates and 3-month interbank deposit rates in CEE countries

% 8 8

6 6

4 4

2 2

0 0

-2 -2

%

Hungary Poland Czech Republic Romania

HUF interbank depo PLN interbank depo CZK interbank depo RON interbank depo

Source: Thomson Reuters.

Notes: interbank deposit rates based on Reuters quotes.

68. 3-month interbank deposit rates in some Central European and Baltic counties

% 8 % 40

6 30

4 20

2

10

0

0

Latvia

Bulgaria

Source: Thomson Reuters.

Notes: 3-day moving averages.

27

Ukraine (right-hand scale)

International and Regional Environment

11 December 2015

69. Spreads of CEE foreign currency bond yields over benchmarks basis points 1200

basis points 1200

1100

1100

1000

1000

900

900

800

800

700

700

600

600

500

500

400

400

300

300

200

200

100

100

basis points 700

basis points 700

600

600

500

500

400

400

300

300

200

200

100

100

0

0 4 Jan. 2012 29 Feb. 25 Apr. 20 June 15 Aug. 10 Oct. 5 Dec. 30 Jan. 2013 27 Mar. 22 May 17 July 11 Sep. 6 Nov. 1 Jan. 2014 26 Feb. 23 Apr. 18 June 13 Aug. 8 Oct. 3 Dec. 28 Jan. 2015 25 Mar. 20 May 15 July 9 Sep. 4 Nov.

0 4 Jan. 2012 29 Feb. 25 Apr. 20 June 15 Aug. 10 Oct. 5 Dec. 30 Jan. 2013 27 Mar. 22 May 17 July 11 Sep. 6 Nov. 1 Jan. 2014 26 Feb. 23 Apr. 18 June 13 Aug. 8 Oct. 3 Dec. 28 Jan. 2015 25 Mar. 20 May 15 July 9 Sep. 4 Nov.

0

70. Spreads of Baltic and Eastern European foreign currency bond yields over benchmarks

Hungary (2018)

Poland (2018)

Slovenia (2018)

Latvia (2018)

Czech Republic (2018)

Romania (2018)

Lithuania (2018)

Turkey (2019)

Source: Thomson Reuters.

Source: Thomson Reuters.

Notes: spreads of Eastern European foreign currency bond yields over the appropriate Notes: spreads of Eastern European foreign currency bond yields over the appropriate German benchmark yields. German benchmark yields.

71. Benchmark yield curves of Hungary, Poland, Italy and Germany % 5

% 5

4

4

3

3

2

2

1

1

0

0

-1

-1 1Y

18M

2Y

3Y

4Y

5Y

6Y

7Y

8Y

9Y

10Y

15Y

20Y

30Y

Hungary 10 Dec 2015

Poland 10 Dec 2015

Italy 10 Dec 2015

Germany 10 Dec 2015

Hungary 10 Nov 2015

Poland 10 Nov 2015

Italy 10 Nov 2015

Germany 10 Nov 2015

Source: Thomson Reuters.

28

3 Jan. 2011 7 Feb. 14 Mar. 18 Apr. 23 May 27 June 1 Aug. 5 Sep. 10 Oct. 14 Nov. 19 Dec. 23 Jan. 2012 27 Feb. 2 Apr. 7 May 11 June 16 July 20 Aug. 24 Sep. 29 Oct. 3 Dec. 7 Jan. 2013 11 Feb. 18 Mar. 22 Apr. 27 May 1 July 5 Aug. 9 Sep. 14 Oct. 18 Nov. 23 Dec. 27 Jan. 2014 3 Mar. 7 Apr. 12 May 16 June 21 July 25 Aug. 29 Sep. 3 Nov. 8 Dec. 12 Jan. 2015 16 Feb. 23 Mar. 27 Apr. 1 June 6 July 10 Aug. 14 Sep. 19 Oct. 23 Nov. 3 Jan. 2011 31 Jan. 28 Feb. 28 Mar. 25 Apr. 23 May 20 June 18 July 15 Aug. 12 Sep. 10 Oct. 7 Nov. 5 Dec. 2 Jan. 2012 30 Jan. 27 Feb. 26 Mar. 23 Apr. 21 May 18 June 16 July 13 Aug. 10 Sep. 8 Oct. 5 Nov. 3 Dec. 31 Dec. 28 Jan. 2013 25 Feb. 25 Mar. 22 Apr. 20 May 17 June 15 July 12 Aug. 9 Sep. 7 Oct. 4 Nov. 2 Dec. 30 Dec. 27 Jan. 2014 24 Feb. 24 Mar. 21 Apr. 19 May 16 June 14 July 11 Aug. 8 Sep. 6 Oct. 3 Nov. 1 Dec. 29 Dec. 26 Jan. 2015 23 Feb. 23 Mar. 20 Apr. 18 May 15 June 13 July 10 Aug. 7 Sep. 5 Oct. 2 Nov. 30 Nov.

International and Regional Environment 11 December 2015

72. Spreads over 5 year euro spot zero coupon yields

basis points 700 basis points 700

600 600

500 500

400 400

300 300

200 200

100 100

0 0

-100 -100

HUF CZK

HUF

CZK

Source: Thomson Reuters.

Notes: based on swap rates provided by Reuters.

29 PLN

Source: Thomson Reuters.

Notes: zero-coupon yields provided by Reuters.

73. 5 year implied spreads over euro rates in 5 year's time

basis points 550 basis points 550

500 500

450 450

400 400

350 350

300 300

250 250

200 200

150 150

100 100

50

50

0

0

-50

-50

-100

-100

PLN

Liquidity Position of the Banking Sector

11 December 2015

74. Developments in central bank balance sheet HUF billions 7000 6500 6000 5500 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 -500

3 Jan. 2012 12 Feb. 23 Mar. 2 May 11 June 21 July 30 Aug. 9 Oct. 18 Nov. 28 Dec. 6 Feb. 2013 18 Mar. 27 Apr. 6 June 16 July 25 Aug. 4 Oct. 13 Nov. 23 Dec. 1 Feb. 2014 13 Mar. 22 Apr. 1 June 11 July 20 Aug. 29 Sep. 8 Nov. 18 Dec. 27 Jan. 2015 8 Mar. 17 Apr. 27 May 6 July 15 Aug. 24 Sep. 3 Nov.

HUF billions 7000 6500 6000 5500 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 -500

reserve balances

net stock of O/N instruments

two-week deposit/bond

FX-swap instruments

O/N loan

one/two-week loan

three/six-month loan

two-week limited instrument

three-month deposit

total HUF liquidity

Source: MNB.

75. Recourse to central bank instruments HUF billions 200

HUF billions 200

100

100

0

0

net stock of O/N instruments

FX-swap instruments

one/two-week loan

Source: MNB.

30

three/six-month loan

9 Dec.

7 Dec.

5 Dec.

3 Dec.

1 Dec.

29 Nov.

27 Nov.

25 Nov.

23 Nov.

21 Nov.

19 Nov.

17 Nov.

15 Nov.

13 Nov.

11 Nov.

-300 9 Nov.

-300 7 Nov.

-200

5 Nov.

-200

3 Nov.

-100

1 Nov.

-100

two-year loan

Inflation

11 December 2015 77. Developments in underlying inflation indicators

76. The CPI and the Core CPI % 9

% 9

8

8

7

7

6

6

% 10

% 10

9

9

8

8

7

7

6

6

5

5

5

4

4

4

4

3

3

3

3

2

2

1

1

2

2

1

1

0

0 -1

-2

-2

0 -1

-2

-2

-3

-3

-4

-4

-5

-5

Jan. 2003 July Jan. 2004 July Jan. 2005 July Jan. 2006 July Jan. 2007 July Jan. 2008 July Jan. 2009 July Jan. 2010 July Jan. 2011 July Jan. 2012 July Jan. 2013 July Jan. 2014 July Jan. 2015 July

-1

0 -1

Jan/2002 Sep/2002 May/2003 Jan/2004 Sep/2004 May/2005 Jan/2006 Sep/2006 May/2007 Jan/2008 Sep/2008 May/2009 Jan/2010 Sep/2010 May/2011 Jan/2012 Sep/2012 May/2013 Jan/2014 Sep/2014 May/2015

5

Core Consumer Price Index

Range of underlying inflation indicators

Consumer Price Index

Core inflation excluding indirect tax changes

Source: HCSO, MNB

Source: HCSO, MNB.

Notes: seasonally adjusted year-on-year growth rates (HCSO adjustments); The time series of core inflation have changed due to the change in the calculation method.

Notes: The range is constructed of the median, weighted median, trimmed mean and Edgeworth-index indicators.

78. Decomposition of the Consumer Price Index Consumer Price Index

Weight - 2015

Aug 2015

Sept 2015

Oct 2015

Nov 2015

100,0

0,0

-0,4

0,1

0,5

thereof Unprocessed food

6,1

6,2

5,9

7,0

8,6

Processed food

13,2

-2,0

-2,2

-1,2

-1,2

Manufactured goods

21,9

0,3

0,9

1,6

1,4

Market services

22,1

2,8

2,6

2,1

1,9

Non-regulated household energy

1,0

-0,6

-2,0

-2,1

-1,4

Alcohol, tobacco

9,7

3,8

3,8

3,7

3,7

Gasoline prices

8,2

-11,8

-17,0

-16,4

-12,6

Regulated prices

17,8

-0,8

-0,6

0,7

0,6

Core Consumer Price Index

66,8

1,2

1,3

1,5

1,4

CPI without Tax Changes

100,0

-0,1

-0,5

0,0

0,4

Source: HCSO, MNB decomposition Notes: annual growth rates (%); The time series of industrial products, market services, regulated prices have changed because the method of the core inflation developed by the CSO and the NBH has broken down several items (like pharmaceutical products, the telephone, the other travels, the TV fee) from 2009.

31

Inflation

11 December 2015 79. The HUF/EUR exchange rate and the analysts' expectations

HUF/EUR 225

HUF/EUR 225 240

255

255

270

270

285

285

300

300

315

315

330

330 2 Jan. 2008 26 Mar. 18 June 10 Sep. 3 Dec. 25 Feb. 2009 20 May 12 Aug. 4 Nov. 27 Jan. 2010 21 Apr. 14 July 6 Oct. 29 Dec. 23 Mar. 2011 15 June 7 Sep. 30 Nov. 22 Feb. 2012 16 May 8 Aug. 31 Oct. 23 Jan. 2013 17 Apr. 10 July 2 Oct. 25 Dec. 19 Mar. 2014 11 June 3 Sep. 26 Nov. 18 Feb. 2015 13 May 5 Aug. 28 Oct. 20 Jan. 2016 13 Apr. 6 July 28 Sep. 21 Dec.

240

Mean of analysts' expectations (inverted scale)

Source: Thomson Reuters, MNB. Notes: inverted scale, projected band with a central exchange rate taken to be fixed at 276,1 from October 1 2001, and at 282,36 from June 4 2003. The thin continuous line represents analysts' average exchange rate expectations according to the most recent Reuters CEE FX Poll.

80. The Brent crude oil price and market expectations USD/barrel 160

USD/barrel 160 140

120

120

100

100

80

80

60

60

40

40

20

20 2 Jan. 2003 8 May 11 Sep. 15 Jan. 2004 20 May 23 Sep. 3 Feb. 2005 14 June 18 Oct. 23 Feb. 2006 29 June 25 Oct. 23 Jan. 2007 23 Apr. 22 July 20 Oct. 18 Jan. 2008 17 Apr. 16 July 14 Oct. 12 Jan. 2009 12 Apr. 11 July 9 Oct. 7 Jan. 2010 7 Apr. 6 July 4 Oct. 2 Jan. 2011 2 Apr. 1 July 29 Sep. 28 Dec. 27 Mar. 2012 25 June 23 Sep. 22 Dec. 22 Mar. 2013 20 June 18 Sep. 17 Dec. 17 Mar. 2014 15 June 13 Sep. 12 Dec. 12 Mar. 2015 10 June 8 Sep. 7 Dec. 6 Mar. 2016 4 June 2 Sep. 1 Dec. 1 Mar. 2017 30 May

140

Historical

Analysts' expectations*

Futures**

MNB technical assumption***

Source: Bloomberg, Consensus Economics. Notes: Consensus Economics Forecast (latest survey); ** Based on the latest available futures prices ***Technical assumption underlying the MNB's inflation forecast published in the most recent Quarterly Report on Inflation.

32

Inflation

11 December 2015 81. Monetary conditions % 190

7

180

6

170

5

160

4

150

3

140

2

130

1

120

0

110

-1

100

-2

90 Jan. 2000 May Sep. Jan. 2001 May Sep. Jan. 2002 May Sep. Jan. 2003 May Sep. Jan. 2004 May Sep. Jan. 2005 May Sep. Jan. 2006 May Sep. Jan. 2007 May Sep. Jan. 2008 May Sep. Jan. 2009 May Sep. Jan. 2010 May Sep. Jan. 2011 May Sep. Jan. 2012 May Sep. Jan. 2013 May Sep. Jan. 2014 May Sep. Jan. 2015 May Sep.

% 8

1-year real interest rate* (left-hand scale)

CPI-based real exchange rate** (right-hand scale)

Source: Reuters, KSH, Eurostat, ÁKK, MNB. Notes: * calculated from the 1-year zero-coupon yield and analysts' corresponding 1-year forward inflation expectations derived from the Reuters-poll by the MNB. ** Monthly depreciation of the forint relative to the euro (until April 2001 the pre-announced rate of devaluation), adjusted by the corresponding Hungarian CPI and the EMU's HICP (1 January 1997 = 100%; increase represents appreciation).

82. Fan chart of the inflation forecast

Q3

Q2

Q4

2017 Q1

Q3

Q2

Q4

2016 Q1

Q3

Q2

Q4

2015 Q1

Q3

Q2

2014 Q1

-2 Q4

-2

Q3

-1

Q2

-1

2013 Q1

0

Q4

0

Q3

1

Q2

1

Q4

2

2012 Q1

2

Q3

3

Q2

3

Q4

4

2011 Q1

4

Q3

5

Q2

5

Q4

6

2010 Q1

6

Q3

%

Q2

7

2009 Q1

% 7

Source: MNB, HCSO. Notes: the fan chart represents the uncertainty around the central projection. Overall, the coloured area represents a 90 per cent probability. The central area containing the central projection for the consumer price index illustrated by the dotted line (as the mode of distribution) refers to 30 per cent of the probability. The horizontal lines show the value of the announced inflation target and the tolerance band.

33

Inflation

11 December 2015 83. Analysts' expectations for the inflation rate in 2015 % 5,0

4,0

4,0

3,0

3,0

2,0

2,0

1,0

1,0

0,0

0,0

-1,0

-1,0 Jan. 2013 Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. 2014 Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. 2015 Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec.

% 5,0

Source: Thomson Reuters. Notes: the thin continuous line represents the trimmed mean calculated by cutting off the lowest and the highest value. The flat line indicates the medium-term inflation target.

84. Analysts' expectations for the inflation rate in 2016

Dec.

Nov.

Oct.

Sep.

Aug.

July

June

May

Apr.

1,0 Mar.

1,0 Feb.

1,5

Jan. 2015

1,5

Dec.

2,0

Nov.

2,0

Oct.

2,5

Sep.

2,5

Aug.

3,0

July

3,0

June

3,5

May

3,5

Apr.

4,0

Mar.

4,0

Feb.

% 4,5

Jan. 2014

% 4,5

Source: Thomson Reuters. Notes: the thin continuous line represents the trimmed mean calculated by cutting off the lowest and the highest value. The flat line indicates the medium-term inflation target.

34

Inflation

11 December 2015

85. The latest central projection of the MNB compared to other prognoses 2014

2015

2016

2017

Consumer Price Index (annual average growth rate, %) MNB (September 2015)

-0,2

0,0

1,9

Consensus Economics (October 2015)¹

-0,2

(-0,3) – 0,1 – 0,5

1,0 – 2,0 – 2,9

European Commission (October 2015)

0,0

0,1

1,9

2,5

IMF (October 2015)

-0,3

0,3

2,3

2,9

OECD (November 2015)

-0,2

0,1

2,2

2,7

Reuters survey (November 2015)¹

-0,2

(-0,1) – 0,0 – 0,0

1,4 – 1,8 – 2,3

2,3 - 2,7 - 2,9

GDP (annual growth rate, %) MNB (September 2015)

3,6

3,2

2,5

Consensus Economics (October 2015)¹

3,6

2,4 – 2,8 – 3,1

1,9 – 2,3 – 2,6

European Commission (October 2015)

3,6

2,9

2,2

2,5

IMF (October 2015)

3,6

3,0

2,5

2,3

OECD (November 2015)

3,6

3,0

2,4

3,1

Reuters survey (November 2015)¹

3,6

2,6 – 2,8– 2,9

1,9 – 2,2 – 2,5

MNB (September 2015)

4,1

5,4

6,6

European Commission (October 2015)

4,4

4,3

5,5

6,1

IMF (October 2015)

4,2

5,0

4,3

3,7

OECD (November 2015)

4,1

4,3

5,5

6,4

Current account balance³

Budget deficit (ESA-95 method)3,4 MNB (September 2015)

2,6

2,4

2,0

Consensus Economics (October 2015)¹

2,6

1,5 – 2,4 – 2,7

1,2 – 2,4 – 2,7

European Commission (May 2015)

2,5

2,3

2,1

IMF (October 2015)

2,6

2,7

2,3

OECD (November 2015)

2,5

2,3

1,9

Reuters survey (November 2015)¹

2,6

1,6 – 2,5 – 4,4

1,2 – 2,4 – 4,2

MNB (September 2015)

2,2

3,4

4,0

European Commission (October 2015)

3,6

4,2

4,8

5,5

IMF (October 2015)

3,2

3,2

4,9

5,3

OECD (November 2015)

3,7

4,6

4,2

5,0

2,0 1,5

Forecasts on the size of Hungary's export markets (annual growth rate, %) 2

Forecasts on the GDP growth rate of Hungary's trade partners (annual growth rate, %) 2 MNB (September 2015)

1,5

1,7

1,8

European Commission (October 2015)

1,7

2,0

2,2

2,3

IMF (October 2015)

1,4

1,6

2,1

2,2

OECD (November 2015)

1,7

1,8

2,1

2,3

1

For Reuters and Consensus Economics surveys, in addition to the average value of the analysed replies (i.e. the median value), we also indicate the lowest and the highest values to illustrate the 2

Values calculated by the MNB; the projections of the named institutions for the relevant countries are adjusted with the weighting system of the MNB, which is also used for the calculation of the bank’s own external demand indices. Certain institutions do not prepare forecast for all partner 3 countries. As a percentage of GDP. 4

With complete cancellation of free reserves. Source: Consensus Economics, European Commission, IMF, OECD, Reuters poll

35

Inflation

11 December 2015 86. Consumer price index and the core inflation excluding indirect taxes

per cent 10

per cent 10

9

9

8

8

7

7

6

6

5

5

4

4

3

3

2

2

1

1

0

0

-1

-1

-2

-2 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Core inflation excluding indirect taxes

2014

2015

Consumer price index

Source: HCSO and MNB calculation

87. Sticky price inflation and the demand sensitive inflation per cent 5

per cent 5

4

4

3

3

2

2

1

1

0

0 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Sticky price inflation

2013

2014

Demand sensitive inflation

Source: HCSO and MNB calculation

36

2015

External Balance

11 December 2015 88. Net financing capacity of the household sector % 14

12

12

10

10

8

8

6

6

4

4

2

2

0

0

-2

-2

-4

-4

-6

-6

-8

-8

-10

-10

-12

-12 2000 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2001 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2002 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2003 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2004 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2005 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2006 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2007 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2008 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2009 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2010 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2011 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2012 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2014 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2015 Q1 Q2 Q3

% 14

Net lending

Assets

Liabilities

Source: MNB. Seasonally adjusted, as a percentage of GDP. Time series data displayed above are seasonally adjusted using direct alignment methodology therefore the difference of assets and liabilities is not necessarily equal to the seasonally adjusted value of net savings.

89. Net financing capacity of the non-monetary corporate sector % 15

10

10

5

5

0

0

-5

-5

-10

-10 2006 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2007 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2008 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2009 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2010 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2011 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2012 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2014 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2015 Q1 Q2

% 15

Net lending

Liabilities

Source: MNB. Notes: seasonally adjusted; as a percentage of GDP.

37

Assets

External Balance

11 December 2015 90. Net borrowing of the household sector

HUF billions 150

1470

HUF billions 150

125

125

100

100

75

75

50

50

25

25

0

0

-25

-25 -1810

-50

-75 Jan. 2003 May Sep. Jan. 2004 May Sep. Jan. 2005 May Sep. Jan. 2006 May Sep. Jan. 2007 May Sep. Jan. 2008 May Sep. Jan. 2009 May Sep. Jan. 2010 May Sep. Jan. 2011 May Sep. Jan. 2012 May Sep. Jan. 2013 May Sep. Jan. 2014 May Sep. Jan. 2015 May Sep.

-75

-50

Consumption and other loans

Mortgages (in HUF)

Mortgages (in foreign currency)

Total amount of loans

Source: MNB. Notes: monthly change, seasonally adjusted data. Data in march 2015 is significantly influenced by settlement and conversion of fx-loans.

91. Change in export and import volumes (goods and services) % 30

25

25

20

20

15

15

10

10

5

5

0

0

-5

-5

-10

-10

-15

-15

-20

-20

-25

-25 2000 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2001 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2002 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2003 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2004 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2005 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2006 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2007 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2008 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2009 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2010 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2011 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2012 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2014 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2015 Q1 Q2 Q3

% 30

Export

Import

Source: MNB. Notes: annual growth rate.

38

Domestic Business Cycle

11 December 2015

92. Annual GDP growth rate

93. Quarterly GDP growth rate

% 8

% 8

6

6

4

4

2

2

0

0

-2

-2

-4

-4

-6

-6

2,0

2,0

1,5

1,5

1,0

1,0

0,5

0,5

0,0

0,0

-0,5

-0,5

-1,0

-1,0

-1,5

-1,5

-2,0

-2,0

-2,5

-2,5

-3,0

-3,0

-3,5

-3,5

-4,0

-4,0

-4,5

-4,5 Mar 2000 Mar 2001 Mar 2002 Mar 2003 Mar 2004 Mar 2005 Mar 2006 Mar 2007 Mar 2008 Mar 2009 Mar 2010 Mar 2011 Mar 2012 Mar 2013 Mar 2014 Mar 2015

% 2,5

Mar 2015

Mar 2014

Mar 2013

Mar 2012

Mar 2011

Mar 2010

Mar 2009

Mar 2008

Mar 2007

Mar 2006

Mar 2005

Mar 2004

Mar 2003

Mar 2002

Mar 2001

-8

Mar 2000

-8

% 2,5

Source: HCSO.

Source: HCSO.

Notes: annual growth rate.

Notes: seasonally adjusted quarterly growth rate.

94. Fan chart of the GDP forecast

Jun 2017

Sep 2017

Mar 2017

Dec 2016

Jun 2016

Sep 2016

Mar 2016

Dec 2015

Jun 2015

Sep 2015

Mar 2015

Dec 2014

Jun 2014

Sep 2014

Mar 2014

Dec 2013

Jun 2013

-8

Sep 2013

-7

-8 Mar 2013

-6

-7 Dec 2012

-5

-6

Sep 2012

-5

Jun 2012

-4

Mar 2012

-3

-4

Dec 2011

-2

-3

Sep 2011

-1

-2

Jun 2011

0

-1

Mar 2011

1

0

Dec 2010

2

1

Sep 2010

3

2

Jun 2010

3

Mar 2010

4

Dec 2009

5

4

Sep 2009

5

Jun 2009

% 6

Mar 2009

% 6

Source: MNB, HCSO. Notes: the fan chart represents the uncertainty around the central projection. Overall, the coloured area represents a 90 per cent probability. The central area containing the central projection for the GDP illustrated by the dotted line (as the mode of distribution) refers to 30 per cent of the probability.

39

Domestic Business Cycle

11 December 2015

95. New dwelling trends

96. Developments in home prices % 80

120

140

70

70

115

130

60

60

50

50

110

120

40

40

30

30

105

110

20

20

100

100

10

10

0

0

95

90

90

80

85

70

80

60

-10

-20

-20

-30

-30

-40

-40

-50

-50

-60

-60 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1

-10

Mar 2007 Sep 2007 Mar 2008 Sep 2008 Mar 2009 Sep 2009 Mar 2010 Sep 2010 Mar 2011 Sep 2011 Mar 2012 Sep 2012 Mar 2013 Sep 2013 Mar 2014 Sep 2014 Mar 2015

% 80

HCSO second hand home price index HCSO new home price index

Constructed dwellings (seasonally adjusted)

FHB real home price index

Issued construction permits (seasonally adjusted)

Source: HCSO.

Source: KSH, FHN.

Notes: year-on-year volume indices of trend-estimates.

Notes: 2010=100, real home price indices; CPI deflated.

97. Household consumption and the accumulation of gross fixed assets % 20

15

15

10

10

5

5

0

0

-5

-5

-10

-10

-15

-15

2000 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2001 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2002 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2003 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2004 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2005 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2006 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2007 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2008 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2009 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2010 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2011 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2012 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2014 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2015 Q1 Q2 Q3

% 20

Household consumption

Gross fixed capital formation

Source: HCSO. Notes: annual growth rates.

40

Jan. 2005 Mar. May July Sep. Nov. Jan. 2006 Mar. May July Sep. Nov. Jan. 2007 Mar. May July Sep. Nov. Jan. 2008 Mar. May July Sep. Nov. Jan. 2009 Mar. May July Sep. Nov. Jan. 2010 Mar. May July Sep. Nov. Jan. 2011 Mar. May July Sep. Nov. Jan. 2012 Mar. May July Sep. Nov. Jan. 2013 Mar. May July Sep. Nov. Jan. 2014 Mar. May July Sep. Nov. Jan. 2015 Mar. May July Sep. Jan. 2005 Mar. May July Sep. Nov. Jan. 2006 Mar. May July Sep. Nov. Jan. 2007 Mar. May July Sep. Nov. Jan. 2008 Mar. May July Sep. Nov. Jan. 2009 Mar. May July Sep. Nov. Jan. 2010 Mar. May July Sep. Nov. Jan. 2011 Mar. May July Sep. Nov. Jan. 2012 Mar. May July Sep. Nov. Jan. 2013 Mar. May July Sep. Nov. Jan. 2014 Mar. May July Sep. Nov. Jan. 2015 Mar. May July Sep.

Domestic Business Cycle 11 December 2015

98. Industrial production and the output of the manufacturing sector

% 20 % 20

15 15

10 10

5 5

0 0

-5 -5

-10 -10

-15 -15

-20 -20

-25 -25

-30 -30

Industrial production Manufacturing sector

Source: HCSO.

Notes: year-on-year volume indices of seasonally adjusted data.

99. New orders in selected branches of the manufacturing sector

% 100 % 100

80 80

60 60

40 40

20 20

0 0

-20

-20

-40

-40

-60

-60

New domestic orders

New export orders

Source: HCSO, MNB.

Notes: year-on-year volume indices of seasonally adjusted data.

41

Domestic Business Cycle

11 December 2015

100. European Commission household confidence index (reweighted) 101. Quarterly growth rates of automobile sales level 10

0

0

-10

-10

-20

-20 -30

-40

-40

-50

-50

-60

-60

-70

-70

% 140

120

120

100

100

80

80

60

60

40

40

20

20

0

0

-20

-20

-40

-40

-60

-60

-80

-80

Mar 2000 Dec 2000 Sep 2001 Jun 2002 Mar 2003 Dec 2003 Sep 2004 Jun 2005 Mar 2006 Dec 2006 Sep 2007 Jun 2008 Mar 2009 Dec 2009 Sep 2010 Jun 2011 Mar 2012 Dec 2012 Sep 2013 Jun 2014 Mar 2015

-30

% 140

Mar 2000 Dec 2000 Sep 2001 Jun 2002 Mar 2003 Dec 2003 Sep 2004 Jun 2005 Mar 2006 Dec 2006 Sep 2007 Jun 2008 Mar 2009 Dec 2009 Sep 2010 Jun 2011 Mar 2012 Dec 2012 Sep 2013 Jun 2014

level 10

Automobile sales

Source: European Commission

3 month moving average

Source: Association of Hungarian Motor Vehicle Importers.

Notes: the re-weighted consumer confidence index takes into account those subData publication has ended in 2014. indices of the European Commission survey which are the most highly correlated with the time series of household consumption expenditure. (For more details see: MNB Background Studies 2001/2)

102. Total volume of retail trade % 35

% 35

30

30

25

25

20

20

15

15

10

10

5

5

Total retail sales

July

July

Jan. 2015

Jan. 2014

July

July

Jan. 2013

Jan. 2012

July

July

Jan. 2011

July

Jan. 2010

Jan. 2009

July

July

Jan. 2008

July

Jan. 2007

Jan. 2006

July

July

Jan. 2005

July

-25 Jan. 2004

-25 Jan. 2003

-20

July

-15

-20

July

-15

Jan. 2002

-10

Jan. 2001

-5

-10

July

0

Jan. 2000

0

-5

3-month central moving average

Source: HCSO. Notes: seasonally adjusted annualised monthly growth rates. The data of total retail sales contain beyond the narrow retail sales the turnover of motor vehicles and automotive fuel as well.

42

Domestic Business Cycle

11 December 2015

103. Creditworthiness standards and credit conditions in corporate sector

Large and medium-sized enterprises

Small and micro-sized enterprises

2015 Q1

2015 Q4 - 2016 Q1 (e.)

2014 Q2

2013 Q3

2012 Q4

2012 Q1

2011 Q2

2010 Q3

2009 Q4

2009 Q1

2007 H2

2006 H1

2004 H2

2015 Q2

2014 Q3

2013 Q4

2013 Q1

2012 Q2

2011 Q3

2010 Q4

2010 Q1

2008 H1

2009 Q2

2006 H2

2005 H1

2015 Q3

2014 Q4

2014 Q1

2013 Q2

2012 Q3

2011 Q4

2011 Q1

2010 Q2

2008 H2

% 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60 -70 -80 2009 Q3

% 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60 -70 -80

Commercial real estate loans

Source: MNB. Notes: credit conditions estimated by lending officers. Negative value indicates easing, positive indicates tightening compared to the last quarter (before 2009 to previous half a year).

104. Creditworthiness standards and credit conditions in corporate sector % 100

% 100

80

80

60

60

40

40

20

20

0

0 -20

-40

-40

-60

-60

-80

-80 2002 H2 2003 H1 2003 H2 2004 H1 2004 H2 2005 H1 2005 H2 2006 H1 2006 H2 2007 H1 2007 H2 2008 H1 2008 H2 2009 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2010 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2011 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2012 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 - 2016 Q1 (e.)

-20

Credit conditions - consumer loans

Credit conditions - housing loans

Source: MNB. Notes: credit conditions estimated by lending officers. Negative value indicates easing, positive indicates tightening compared to the last quarter (before 2009 to previous half a year).

43

Jan. 2004 Mar. May July Sep. Nov. Jan. 2005 Mar. May July Sep. Nov. Jan. 2006 Mar. May July Sep. Nov. Jan. 2007 Mar. May July Sep. Nov. Jan. 2008 Mar. May July Sep. Nov. Jan. 2009 Mar. May July Sep. Nov. Jan. 2010 Mar. May July Sep. Nov. Jan. 2011 Mar. May July Sep. Nov. Jan. 2012 Mar. May July Sep. Nov. Jan. 2013 Mar. May July Sep. Nov. Jan. 2014 Mar. May July Sep. Nov. Jan. 2015 Mar. May July Sep. Jan. 2004 Mar. May July Sep. Nov. Jan. 2005 Mar. May July Sep. Nov. Jan. 2006 Mar. May July Sep. Nov. Jan. 2007 Mar. May July Sep. Nov. Jan. 2008 Mar. May July Sep. Nov. Jan. 2009 Mar. May July Sep. Nov. Jan. 2010 Mar. May July Sep. Nov. Jan. 2011 Mar. May July Sep. Nov. Jan. 2012 Mar. May July Sep. Nov. Jan. 2013 Mar. May July Sep. Nov. Jan. 2014 Mar. May July Sep. Nov. Jan. 2015 Mar. May July Sep.

Labour Market 11 December 2015

105. Wage growth in the manufacturing sector

% 16 % 16

14 14

12 12

10 10

8 8

6 6

4 4

2 2

0 0

Average gross wage ex-bonus payments Average gross wage

Source: HCSO, seasonally adjusted by NBH

Notes: annual growth rates.

106. Wage growth in the market service sector

% 14 % 14

12 12

10 10

8 8

6 6

4

4

2

2

0

0

Average gross wage ex-bonus payments

Average gross wage

Source: HCSO, seasonally adjusted by NBH.

Notes: annual growth rates.

44

Labour Market

11 December 2015

107. Wage growth in the private sector

108. Unit labour cost in the private sector

% 16

% 16

14

14

12

12

% 24

% 24

20

20

16

16

12

12

8

8

-12

0

0

-16

-16

Average gross wage ex-bonus payments

Average gross wage

Private sector ULC annualised q/q

Mar 2009

-12

Mar 2009

-8

2

Mar 2009

-8

2

Mar 2009

-4

Mar 2009

-4

Mar 2010

4

Mar 2009

4

Mar 2008

0

Mar 2007

0

Mar 2006

6

Mar 2005

6

Mar 2004

4

Mar 2003

4

Mar 2002

8

Mar 2001

8

Mar 2000

10

Jan. 2004 July Jan. 2005 July Jan. 2006 July Jan. 2007 July Jan. 2008 July Jan. 2009 July Jan. 2010 July Jan. 2011 July Jan. 2012 July Jan. 2013 July Jan. 2014 July Jan. 2015 July

10

4 quarter-moving average

Source: HCSO, seasonally adjusted by NBH.

Source: HCSO.

Notes: annual growth rates.

Notes: seasonally adjusted, annualised quarterly growth rates.

109. Activity and unemployment thousand persons 4700

thousand persons 500 450

4300

400

4100

350

3900

300

3700

250

3500

200 Jan. 1998 May Sep. Jan. 1999 May Sep. Jan. 2000 May Sep. Jan. 2001 May Sep. Jan. 2002 May Sep. Jan. 2003 May Sep. Jan. 2004 May Sep. Jan. 2005 May Sep. Jan. 2006 May Sep. Jan. 2007 May Sep. Jan. 2008 May Sep. Jan. 2009 May Sep. Jan. 2010 May Sep. Jan. 2011 May Sep. Jan. 2012 May Sep. Jan. 2013 May Sep. Jan. 2014 May Sep. Jan. 2015 May Sep.

4500

number of employed

economically active

Source: HCSO. Notes: levels, seasonally adjusted.

45

unemployed (right-hand scale)

International and Regional Environment

11 December 2015

110. 10-year government benchmark yields in CEE countries

111. Budget deficit in the CEE countries

12

12

11

11

10

10

9

9

8

8

7

7

6

6

5

5

4

4

3

3

2

2

1

1

0

0

Hungary

Poland

Czech Republic

Maastricht reference value

% 10

% 10

9

9

8

8

7

7

6

6

5

5

4

4

3

3

2

2

1

1

0

0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015f 2016f

% 13

Jan. 2005 July Jan. 2006 July Jan. 2007 July Jan. 2008 July Jan. 2009 July Jan. 2010 July Jan. 2011 July Jan. 2012 July Jan. 2013 July Jan. 2014 July Jan. 2015 July

% 13

Hungary (12-month average)

Hungary

Source: Eurostat.

Poland

Czech Republic

Source: Eurostat, Consensus Economics forecasts. Notes: as a percentage of GDP. In the case of Poland and the Czech Republic privatisation revenues are not included.

112. Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices % 10

8

8

6

6

4

4

2

2

0

0

-2

-2 Jan. 2005 Apr. July Oct. Jan. 2006 Apr. July Oct. Jan. 2007 Apr. July Oct. Jan. 2008 Apr. July Oct. Jan. 2009 Apr. July Oct. Jan. 2010 Apr. July Oct. Jan. 2011 Apr. July Oct. Jan. 2012 Apr. July Oct. Jan. 2013 Apr. July Oct. Jan. 2014 Apr. July Oct. Jan. 2015 Apr. July Oct.

% 10

Hungary

Poland

Czech Republic

Maastricht reference value

Source: Eurostat Notes: annual growth rate.

46

Hungary (12-month average)

International and Regional Environment

11 December 2015 113. GDP growth rate in CEE

Hungary

Czech Republic

Sep 2015

Mar 2015

Sep 2014

Mar 2014

Sep 2013

Mar 2013

Sep 2012

Mar 2012

Sep 2011

Sep 2010

Mar 2011

Sep 2009

Mar 2010

Sep 2008

Mar 2009

Sep 2007

Poland

Mar 2008

Mar 2007

Sep 2006

-8

Mar 2006

-8 Sep 2005

-4

Mar 2005

-4

Sep 2004

0

Mar 2004

0

Sep 2003

4

Mar 2003

4

Sep 2002

8

Sep 2001

8

Mar 2002

12

Sep 2000

12

Mar 2001

% 16

Mar 2000

% 16

Slovakia

Source: Eurostat. Notes: same period of previous year = 100; seasonally adjusted data.

114. External financing capacity in the CEE countries % 12

10

10

8

8

6

6

4

4

2

2

0

0

-2

-2

-4

-4

-6

-6

-8

-8

-10

-10

-12

-12 2004 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2005 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2006 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2007 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2008 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2009 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2010 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2011 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2012 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2014 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2015 Q1 Q2

% 12

Hungary

Poland

Czech Republic

Source: Eurostat, MNB, CNB, NBP. Notes: seasonally adjusted, as a percentage of GDP.

47

Slovakia

International and Regional Environment

11 December 2015 116. The annual growth rate of the volume of imported goods and services

115. Business climate indices in the EMU 4,0

112,5

3,5

110,0

3,0

107,5

2,5

105,0

2,0

102,5

1,5

100,0

1,0

97,5

0,5

95,0

0,0

92,5

-0,5

90,0

-1,0

87,5

-1,5

85,0

-2,0

82,5

-2,5

80,0

-3,0

77,5

-3,5

75,0

-4,0

IFO

% 25

% 25

20

20

15

15

10

10

5

5

0

0

-5

-5

-10

-10

-15

-15

-20

-20 2000 Q1 Q3 2001 Q1 Q3 2002 Q1 Q3 2003 Q1 Q3 2004 Q1 Q3 2005 Q1 Q3 2006 Q1 Q3 2007 Q1 Q3 2008 Q1 Q3 2009 Q1 Q3 2010 Q1 Q3 2011 Q1 Q3 2012 Q1 Q3 2013 Q1 Q3 2014 Q1 Q3 2015 Q1 Q3

Jan. 2000 Jan. 2001 Jan. 2002 Jan. 2003 Jan. 2004 Jan. 2005 Jan. 2006 Jan. 2007 Jan. 2008 Jan. 2009 Jan. 2010 Jan. 2011 Jan. 2012 Jan. 2013 Jan. 2014 Jan. 2015

115,0

EABCI (right-hand scale)

Eurozone

United States

Source: IFO; European Committee.

Source: Thomson Reuters.

Notes: IFO: Business Climate Index of the German Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (Average of year 2000 = 100); EABCI: Business Climate Index of the European Committee (deviations from the long-run average), seasonally adjusted.

Notes: seasonally adjusted data.

Japan

117. GDP growth rate in the EMU, US and Japan

EMU

Notes: seasonally adjusted quarterly growth rates

48

Japan

Sep 2015

Sep 2014

Mar 2015

Sep 2013

Mar 2014

Mar 2013

Sep 2012

Sep 2011

Mar 2012

Sep 2010

Mar 2011

Mar 2010

Sep 2009

Sep 2008

USA

Source: EUROSTAT.

Mar 2009

Mar 2008

Sep 2007

Sep 2006

Mar 2007

Sep 2005

Mar 2006

Mar 2005

Sep 2004

Sep 2003

Mar 2004

Sep 2002

Mar 2003

Sep 2001

Mar 2002

Mar 2001

Sep 2000

% 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0,0 -0,5 -1,0 -1,5 -2,0 -2,5 -3,0 -3,5 -4,0 -4,5 Mar 2000

% 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0,0 -0,5 -1,0 -1,5 -2,0 -2,5 -3,0 -3,5 -4,0 -4,5

Jan. 1998 Apr. July Oct. Jan. 1999 Apr. July Oct. Jan. 2000 Apr. July Oct. Jan. 2001 Apr. July Oct. Jan. 2002 Apr. July Oct. Jan. 2003 Apr. July Oct. Jan. 2004 Apr. July Oct. Jan. 2005 Apr. July Oct. Jan. 2006 Apr. July Oct. Jan. 2007 Apr. July Oct. Jan. 2008 Apr. July Oct. Jan. 2009 Apr. July Oct. Jan. 2010 Apr. July Oct. Jan. 2011 Apr. July Oct. Jan. 2012 Apr. July Oct. Jan. 2013 Apr. July Oct. Jan. 2014 Apr. July Oct. Jan. 2015 Apr. July Oct.

115

CPI based

Source: HCSO, MNB, ECB

Notes: average of year 2000 = 100.

49

%

PPI based

Mar 2015

Sep 2014

Mar 2014

Sep 2013

Mar 2013

Sep 2012

Mar 2012

Sep 2011

Mar 2011

Sep 2010

Mar 2010

Sep 2009

Mar 2009

Sep 2008

Mar 2008

Sep 2007

Mar 2007

Sep 2006

Mar 2006

Sep 2005

Mar 2005

Sep 2004

Mar 2004

Sep 2003

Mar 2003

Sep 2002

Mar 2002

Sep 2001

Mar 2001

Sep 2000

Mar 2000

Real Exchange Rates 11 December 2015

118. ULC based real effective exchange rate of the HUF

% 105 % 105

100 100

95 95

90 90

85 85

80 80

75 75

Source: HCSO.

Notes: average of year 2000 = 100%.

119. CPI and PPI based real effective exchange rates of the HUF % 115

110 110

105 105

100 100

95 95

90 90

85 85

80 80

75

75

70

70

65

65

60

60

M1

M2

Source: MNB.

50

M3

Oct.

July

Apr.

Jan. 2015

Oct.

M2

July

Apr.

Jan. 2014

Oct.

July

Apr.

Jan. 2013

Oct.

July

M1

Apr.

Jan. 2012

Oct.

July

Apr.

Jan. 2011

Oct.

July

Apr.

Jan. 2010

Oct.

July

Apr.

Jan. 2009

Oct.

July

Apr.

Jan. 2008

Oct.

July

Apr.

Jan. 2015

Oct.

July

Apr.

Jan. 2014

Oct.

July

Apr.

Jan. 2013

Oct.

July

Apr.

Jan. 2012

Oct.

July

Apr.

Jan. 2011

Oct.

July

Apr.

Jan. 2010

Oct.

July

Apr.

Jan. 2009

Oct.

July

Apr.

Jan. 2008

Monetary aggregates 11 December 2015

120. Real growth rate of monetary aggregates (year-on-year basis)

% 25 % 25

20 20

15 15

10 10

5 5

0 0

-5 -5

-10 -10

M3

Source: MNB.

121. Real growth rate of monetary aggregates (annualized from quarterly rates)

% 35 % 35

30 30

25 25

20 20

15 15

10 10

5 5

0 0

-5 -5

-10

-10

-15

-15

-20

-20

-25

-25

-30

-30