March  1st,  2015  

Cencosud:  Without  limits  to  dream     “The  Colombian  purchase  is  a  unique  opportunity  we  can't  let  go"                             -­‐Horst  Paulmann,  founder  and  President,  Cencosud  

  Carrefour  Colombia:  An  Opportunity  Arises       Juan  Manuel  Parada  felt  restless.  As  the  newly  appointed  CFO  of  Cencosud,  he  had  just  received  a  report   that  could  change  the  course  of  the  company.  It  contained  information  on  Carrefour,  the  world’s  second-­‐ largest  retailer  and  competitor  of  Cencosud.  Looking  to  cut  costs  and  debt,  due  to  the  difficult  economic   situation   in   Europe,   Carrefour   was   contemplating   whether   to   sell   its   Colombian   operations.   Present   in   Colombia  since  1998,  Carrefour  operates  72  hypermarkets,  16  convenience  stores  and  4  cash  and  carry   stores  in  the  country.  Although  Cencosud  had  no  current  plans  to  grow  through  acquisitions  in  Colombia,   this  deal  would  allow  them  to  penetrate  the  market  in  a  way  that  wouldn’t  have  been  possible  via  organic   growth.   Furthermore,   Carrefour   stores   share   a   similar   format   to   Cencosud   stores,   which   would   make   them  a  good  fit  with  Cencosud’s  current  operations.     Juan  Manuel  worried  that  disclosing  this  information   to  the  board  could  lead  Horst  Paulmann,  Founder   and  President  of  Cencosud,  to  make  a  hasty  decision.  This  could  be  Juan  Manuel’s  first  acquisition  and  he   didn’t  want  it  to  be  a  value-­‐destroying  one.  Carrefour’s  Colombian  operations  represented  a  large  asset   that   would   require   Cencosud   to   undertake   more   debt   than   usual.   He   needed   time,   to   put   together   a   valuation  but  knew  he  didn’t  have  much.  Since  he  had  this  report,  it  meant  that  other  competitors  also   did.  He  needed  to  reach  a  conclusion  fast  or  risk  Wal-­‐Mart  and  Falabella  beating  them  to  the  punch.  

The  Fuqua  School  of  Business  at  Duke  University    

Competitive  Landscape     Retail  industry  and  major  players  in  Chile     The  retail  industry  in  Chile  is  highly  competitive  and  developed,  and  has  grown  significantly  in  the  last  20   years  through  the  consolidation  of  strong  local  players  and  with  little  presence  of  international  players.   Financial  services  associated  to  the  retail  business,  including  credit  cards  and  loyalty  programs,  are  strong   in  Chilean  retail,  and  have  been  determinant  for  the  success  of  local  players,  and  at  the  same  time,  have   been   an   important   reason   of   the   failure   of   international   players   trying   to   set   foot   in   the   Chilean   retail   industry.  Giant  retailers  JCPenney,  Home  Depot,  and  Carrefour  are  some  examples.   The  Chilean  retail  industry  can  be  divided  into  three  main  categories:  department  stores,  supermarkets,   and  home  improvement.  The  total  retail  market  as  of  2011  is  valued  near  $25  billion  and  has  experienced   a  sharp  growth  in  the  past  years,  motivated  by  high  GDP  growth  rates,  5.8%  and  5.8%  in  2010  and  2011,   respectively.  Market  projections  show  the  growth  in  food  retail  to  be  7.3%  and  3.5%  for  the  apparel  retail   in   the   2013   –   2018   periodI.   This   is   in   line   with   the   healthy   economy   of   Chile,   which   has   presented   consistent   growth   in-­‐hand   with   a   stable   political   environment,   wide   access   to   credit,   and   solid   growth   projections  for  coming  years.       The  two  dominant  retail  players  in  Chile,  with  activities  in  all  the  three  retail  categories,  are  Falabella  and   Cencosud.  These  two  conglomerates  face  competition  in  the  department  stores  and  home  improvement   categories   from   smaller   and   local   players,   with   a   more   focused   approach   in   a   particular   segment.   However,   in   the   supermarket   segment,   the   two   dominant   players   compete   against   giant   Wal-­‐Mart.   In   addition,  Falabella  and  Cencosud  face  competition  from  SMU,  a  group  formed  from  a  series  of  mergers   between   12   smaller   regional   supermarket   chains.   Please   refer   to   Exhibit   1   that   contains   a   table   summarizing  the  main  characteristics  of  the  largest  retail  players  in  Chile.  

Chilean  Consolidation  and  diversification   The  period  between  the  years  1990  and  2005  is  referred  as  the   “golden  years”  for  the  retail  industry  in   ChileII.   Leading   players   developed   a   consolidation   and   high   growth   strategy   that   was   executed   both   via   acquisitions  and  organic  growth.  Big  technological  improvements  made  a  significant  difference  in  terms   of  cost  efficiency,  and  positioned  the  principal  players  a  huge  step  ahead  of  the  rest  of  the  competitors.   The   incorporation   of   code   bars   and   laser   readers   by   1991   was   vital   to   improve   stocking   and   inventory  

 

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The  Fuqua  School  of  Business  at  Duke  University     efficiency,  and  also  the  development  of  distribution  centers  that  solved  logistic  issues  for  the  chains  that   were  expanding  within  the  countryIII.     By   the   mid-­‐90s   in   the   supermarket   segment,   “Lider”,   now   Wal-­‐Mart,   followed   a   strategy   leaned   to   organic  growth.  Santa  Isabel,  acquired  by  Cencosud  in  2003,  acquired  smaller  regional  chains  Multimarket   and  Marmentini  Letelier.  By  2004,  Falabella  entered  the  supermarket  arena  by  acquiring  Supermercados   San  Francisco,  later  on  rebranded  as  Tottus,  now  with  64  stores  in  Chile  and  PeruIV.     In  the  Department  Stores  segment,  Cencosud  made  a  key  consolidation  move  in  April  2005.  The  company   acquired   Falabella’s   main   competitor,   Almacenes   Paris,   for   $950   million.   This   acquisition   allowed   Cencosud  to  enter  the  department  store  and  retail  financial  services  businessesV.     The   home   improvement   is   the   most   fragmented   of   the   three   segments,   however   we   have   seen   huge   resources   devoted   by   the   big   players   in   order   to   consolidate   their   presence   in   this   business.   Cencosud   formed  “Easy”  by  1993  and  followed  an  organic  growth  strategy  with  a  combination  of  small  acquisitions   of  some  of  the  Chilean  assets  of  The  Home  Depot  and  ProTerra  in  2000.  On  the  other  hand,  Falabella  took   an  aggressive  move  in  2003  by  acquiring  Sodimac,  the  leader  in  this  segment,  a  transaction  valued  in  $2.5   billionVI.  To  further  consolidate,  Falabella  acquired  Imperial  in  2008.   As  conclusion,  in  this  1990  –  2005  period  we  can  observe  that  the  largest  Chilean  players  were  filing  the   market   rapidly   and   diversifying   their   presence   in   the   retail   industry   to   its   three   segments.   The   evident   growth   strategy   in   order   to   continue   having   such   successful   rates   was   to   tap   other   markets   in   Latin   America.   However,   there   they   would   face   other   country   risk,   market   dynamics,   competitors   and   particularities  from  each  the  markets.    

Latin  American  players  

Argentina   Efforts  to  rebuild  credit  following  the  financial  and  political  crises  of  1999-­‐2002  had  a  positive  impact  on   consumer  expenditure  and,  consequently,  retail  sales  in  ArgentinaVII.  However  continuous  economic  and   political   issues,   and   rising   inflation   rates   challenged   the   development   of   the   retail   sector,   especially   for   foreign   companies.   Nevertheless,   three   main   players   in   the   supermarket   segment,   Carrefour,   Cencosud   and  Wal-­‐Mart,  are  foreign.  The  total  food  retail  market  for  2011  was  valued  at  $33  billionVIII.   Both   the   department   store   and   the   home   improvement   segments   are   not   well   developed   in   Argentina   due   to   consumer’s   preferences   to   shop   in   smaller   local   and   specialized   storesIX.   Falabella   is   the   only  

 

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The  Fuqua  School  of  Business  at  Duke  University     significant   department   store   with   an   income   of   $511   million   in   2011.   The   group   is   also   present   with   Sodimac  and  competes  against  Easy  (Cencosud)  in  the  home  improvement  segment.  

Brazil   Brazil   is   the   world’s   third-­‐biggest   grocery   market,   next   only   to   America   and   China,   with   strong   players   operating  in  the  market,  both  foreign  and  domesticX.  The  food  retail  market  in  Brazil  for  2011  had  total   sales  for  $128  billionXI.  Global  retailers  such  as  Wal-­‐Mart  compete  against  domestic  market  leaders  like   Pão   de   Açúcar.   In   terms   of   market   share,   Pão   de   Açúcar   has   of   about   18%   of   the   market;   the   French   retailer  has  about  14.5%  and  Walmart  12%XII.  Competition  is  expected  to  intensify  in  the  next  few  years  as   the  supermarket  penetration  remains  low  at  40%,  significantly  lower  than  the  70%  penetration  achieved   in  Chile.XIII   Strong   local   players   such   as   Casa   Bahia,   Lojas   Americanas,   and   Companhia   Hering   characterize   the   department   stores   segment   in   Brazil.   The   apparel   retail   market   in   Brazil   had   $37   billion   in   sales   for   2011XIV.  

Colombia   Since  the  beginning  of  the  new  century,  the  Colombian  market  has  been  expanding  very  rapidly.  Growth   in  personal  income  and  changes  in  purchasing  habits  led  Colombia  to  become  one  of  the  most  attractive   markets  in  the  region.XV    Market  researchers  expect  the  food  retail  in  Colombia  to  grow  6.7%  CAGR  (see  

Exhibit   2   for   projections)   in   the   2013-­‐2018   periodXVI.   International   players   mainly   make   up   the   retail   industry,   and   given   its   high   growth   potential   market   researchers   expect   this   trend   to   continue.   For   the   coming   years,   market   researchers   expect   a   good   environment   for   international   investment   in   Colombia   because   of   GDP   expansions   above   Latin   America’s   average,   a   controlled   inflation,   decreasing   unemployment  rates  and  a  healthy  financial  system.     Grupo  Exito,  who  owns  61%  of  the  market  share,  dominates  the  supermarket  segment,  Carrefour  follows   with  19%,  Olimpica,  with  15%,  and  La  14,  with  5%.  Total  food  retail  market  was  $58.2  billion  in  2011XVII.   The  two  main  department  stores  are  the  Chileans  Falabella  and  La  Polar.  Finally,  Chilean  players  Falabella   and   Cencosud,   with   their   respective   brands   Sodimac   and   Easy,   also   dominate   the   home   improvement   segment  XVIII.  

Mexico   Mexico   is   a   hybrid   country,   where   new,   world-­‐class   retail   development   shares   the   street   with   an   estimated  2.3  million  single-­‐shop  stores  and  traditional  markets.  Still,  it  is  a  very  attractive  market  due  to  

 

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The  Fuqua  School  of  Business  at  Duke  University     its  large  and  growing  middle  class  populationXIX.  Food  retail  in  Mexico  is  a  market  with  total  sales  of  $151   billion  in  2011XX  with  the  major  players  being  WalMex,  Organizacion  Soriana,  Chedraui  and  ComerciXXI.   The  department  store  segment,  especially  in  the  apparel  component  has  experimented  moderate  growth   in  recent  years,  however  it  is  expected  to  growth  slightly  in  the  2011  –  2016  period  at  a  2.9%  CAGRXXII.   The  main  department  stores  players  are  Liverpool,  Suburbia,  Sears  and  El  Palacio  del  Hierro.  

Peru   Retail  industry  prospects  in  Peru  are  very  attractive.  Real  wages  in  Peru  are  expected  to  growth  twice  the   average  of  Latin  America’sXXIII.  This,  combined  with  the  lowest  penetration  of  “developed”  retail,  makes   the   country   tempting   to   new   players.   The   three   main   players   in   the   supermarket   segment   are   Wong,   acquired   by   Cencosud   in   2007   for   $468   million,   Supermercados   Peruanos,   and   Falabella’s   Tottus.   Chilean’s   Falabella   and   Ripley   dominate   the   department   stores   segment.   Finally,   Sodimac   followed   by   local  Maestro  leads  the  home  improvement  segment.  

Cencosud:  A  leader  is  born   In   1976   Horst   Paulmann,   a   German   immigrant,   opened   the   first   hypermarket   “Jumbo”   in   the   south   of   Chile.  Little  did  he  know  that  five  decades  later  his  company  would  be  recognized  as  one  of  the  largest   and  most  prestigious  retail  conglomerates  in  Latin  America.  With  over  800  stores,  25  shopping  centers,   4.2  million  credit  cards  issued  and  130,000  employees  in  5  countries1,  Cencosud  is  a  force  to  be  reckoned   with.   It   has   acquired   over   ten   companies   in   the   past.   The   company   offers   more   than   450   thousand   products  through  diversified  business  segments  and  15  brand  names  present  in  5  countries  (Exhibit   3   shows  a  breakdown  of  brands  by  country).  Additionally,  it  had  a  very  strong  financial  performance  in  2011   with  $15.6billion  in  revenues  and  an  EBITDA  of  $1.287  billion  that  has  increased  by  more  than  3x  since   2005XXIV.    

Cencosud:  Multi-­‐Format  Strategy   Cencosud  currently  operates  five  lines  of  business  (Exhibit   4   specifies  revenue  and  EBITDA  breakdown   by  business  line):     1. Superm arkets:   Its   most   relevant   business   division   with   over   720   stores   across   4   countriesXXV.   They   have   a   quality-­‐service   and   quality-­‐price   strategy   that   helps   them   segment   customers.   It   holds   brands   such   as   “Jumbo”,   “GBarbosa”,   and   “Disco”   that   are   well   known   and   have   high   customer  recognition.                                                                                                                           1

 

 As  of  December  31,  2011  

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The  Fuqua  School  of  Business  at  Duke  University     2. Home   improvement:  Founded  in  1993,  it  is  the  second  most  important  business  division  with   over  80  stores  in  Argentina,  Chile,  and  Colombia.  Stores  offer  products  and  services  oriented  to   improve  and/or  maintain  home.  Its  main  brand  is  “Easy”.   3. Departm ent   stores:   In   2005   Cencosud   began   its   participation   in   this   industry   by   acquiring   Chilean  department  store  chain  Almacenes  Paris.  The  division  is  primarily  focused  in  Chile.  Stores’   main  activity  is  the  retail  sale  of  clothing,  appliances,  electronics  and  technology.  By  the  end  of   2011   the   company   successfully   completed   a   phase   of   its   ambitious   expansion   cycle   with   the   acquisition  of  Johnson  department  stores  in  Chile.   4. Shopping   centers:  With  over  20  shopping  centers  in  Chile,  Argentina,  and  Peru  the  shopping   center   division   represents   2%   of   revenues.   Cencosud   seeks   to   promote   flow   of   consumers   through   additional   stores   by   having   “Jumbo”   and   “Easy”   as   anchors   in   its   shopping   malls.   Cencosud’s  desire  to  ensure  that  their  customers  have  a  superior  shopping  experience  has  led  to   the  creation  of  its  Costanera  Center,  the  tallest  building  in  Latin  America,  expected  to  open  in  the   second  quarter  of  2012.   5. Financial   Services:  Encompasses  mainly  credit  card  and  consumer  finance  operations,  as  well   as   insurance.   With   over   4.2   million   credit   cards   issued,   this   business   segment   represents   3%   of   revenues.   The   main   objective   is   to   strengthen   the   relationship   with   clients   by   offering   a   more   complete   service   and   generating   greater   added   value   from   the   synergies   that   exist   between   all   subsidiariesXXVI.  

 

Cencosud:  Business  Strategy   The  company’s  business  strategy  resides  in  leveraging  the  competitive  advantages  of  all  business  lines  to   provide  consumers  with  exceptional  shopping  experiences.  To  accomplish  this  Cencosud  focuses  on  five   key  pointsXXVII:     1. Continue   developing   a   multi-­‐format   and   multi-­‐brand   strategy:   this   allows   Cencosud   to   offer   a   wide   range   of   products   and   brands   associated   with   different   shopping   experiences   therefore   achieving   consumer   loyalty   as   well   as   benefiting   from   synergies   between   the   different   business   units.     2. Centralize   efforts   in   continuing   to   increase   margins:   focus   on   operational   efficiency   and   rationalization  of  distribution  capacity  making  use  of  the  increasing  economies  of  scale  to  obtain   favorable  buying  conditions.    

 

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The  Fuqua  School  of  Business  at  Duke  University     3. Continue  organic  growth  and  new  acquisitions:  Take  advantage  of  its  well-­‐known  brand  portfolio   and   reputation   to   continue   with   its   aggressive   plan   of   organic   growth,   leveraging   significant   opportunities  to  expand  their  presence  in  Peru  and  Brazil.   4. Obtain  synergies  through  the  integration  of  our  acquisitions:  Achieved  synergies  and  cost  savings   by  integrating  acquisitions  with  operations  in  Chile  and  Argentina.     5. Improve  service  commitment  and  customer  satisfaction:  Given  the  highly  competitive  nature  of   the   retail   business   Cencosud   is   looking   to   attract   and   retain   customers   through   combination   of   quality  products,  good  service,  reasonable  prices  and  attractive  shopping  environment.  In  order   to   anticipate   customer   demand,   the   company   plans   to   improve   its   information   technology   systems,  databases  and  CRM.  

International  expansion   Cencosud’s  geographic  diversification  campaign  has  allowed  the  firm  to  ensure  its  growing  participation   in  Latin  America.  Organic  growth  in  neighbor  countries  plus  a  sequence  of  key  acquisitions  positioned  the   firm,   3   decades   later,   as   one   of   the   most   prestigious   and   profitable   retailers   in   the   region   (Exhibit   5   provides   a   timeline   from   1976   to   2012).   After   this   period   of   continued   growth,   the   company   maintains   international   operations   in   Argentina,   Brazil,   Colombia   and   Peru   (Exhibit   6   presents   Cencosud’s   revenues  by  country).  

1982  –  2001:  Organic  growth  in  Argentina   During   this   period,   and   despite   Argentina’s   continued   economic   and   political   challenges,   Cencosud   underwent  an  aggressive  growth  plan  in  the  country.  The  company’s  expansion  plan  in  Argentina  started   in  1982  when  the  company  opened  the  first  hypermarket,  Jumbo,  an  almost  100,000  square-­‐foot  facility.   The  country  was  experiencing  triple-­‐digit  inflation,  but  Buenos  Aires  had  more  inhabitants  than  all  of  Chile   and  thus,  represented  a  good  business  opportunity  to  boost  international  revenues.  XXVIII   In  1988,  Cencosud  recognized  the  value  of  a  multi-­‐format  strategy  and  a  multi-­‐brand  strategy  (Exhibit   7   provides   Cencosud   brands   and   their   market   position)   and   inaugurated   its   first   shopping   center,   Unicenter,   a   987,811   square-­‐foot   facility   of   rentable   space.   XXIX     The   success   of   Unicenter   plus   the   desirable  economic  conditions  remaining  in  Argentina,  where  inflation  had  ended,  led  Cencosud  to  focus   most  of  the  company’s  international  growth  in  Argentina.  Between  1993  and  2001,  the  firm  opened  10   commercial  centers,  8  in  Buenos  Aires,  1  in  the  province  of  Neuquen  and  1  in  the  city  of  Mendoza.XXX  

 

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The  Fuqua  School  of  Business  at  Duke  University    

2002  –  2006:  Acquisitions  in  Argentina   In   2002,   the   company   started   its   acquisition   process   by   taking   over   four   Home   Depot   stores   and   converting  them  into  Easy  stores.  This  move  represented  a  big  step  for  Cencosud,  who  took  loans  from  4   different  banks  to  pay  the  $90  million  acquisition.  XXXI   Argentina’s  currency  problems  forced  foreign  investors,  such  as   Wal-­‐Mart  and  Casino,  to  freeze  further   expansion   in   Argentina.   Cencosud   took   advantage   of   the   static   business   environment   and   in   2004   acquired  Disco,  the  nation  second  largest  supermarket  chain,  which  accounted  for  19.2%  of  the  market   share.  XXXII   By   early   2006,   as   the   Argentine   recession   was   threatening   to   slow   down   Cencosud’s   growth,   the   firm   started  looking  into  alternative  markets  to  continue  its  expansion  process  in  Latin  America.    

2007  –  2011:  Expansion  to  Colombia,  Peru  and  Brazil   Cencosud   decided   to   enter   the   Colombian   market   in   2007   through   a   joint   venture   with   giant   French   retailer   Casino.   Cencosud   hold   a   70%   stake   in   this   partnership   and   Casino   the   remaining   30%.   The   rationale   behind   this   strategic   alliance,   called   Easy   Colombia,   was   two-­‐fold.   First,   Cencosud   wanted   to   take  advantage  of  Casino’s  local  market  knowledge.  And  second,  both  parties  wanted  to  set  a  framework   to  potentially  enter  other  markets  in  Latin  America.XXXIII   The   same   year,   the   company   entered   the   Peruvian   market,   when   it   acquired   Grupo   Wong,   the   top   operator   of   supermarkets   and   shopping   centers.   The   $500   million   acquisition   allowed   Cencosud   to   become  the  largest  supermarket  operator  in  the  country.     Expansion  in  Brazil  helped  Cencosud  to  position  the  firm  as  a  regional  retail  powerhouse.  Growth  came  in   large  part  from  a  steady  acquisition  campaign,  which  cost  the  company  over  $2  billion.   XXXIV  In  2008  the   firm  purchased  the  GBarbosa  chain  and  two  years  later  the  firm  added  Perini,  Mercantil  Rodrigues,  Super   Familia   and   Bretas   supermarket   chains,   which   allowed   the   firm   to   double   its   presence   in   Brazil.XXXV   Recently,  in  2011,  the  company  acquired  the  Cardoso  supermarket  chain  and  took  over  Prezunic  in  Rio  de   Janeiro.  This  last  move  allowed  Cencosud  to  become  the  fourth  largest  supermarket  chain  in  Brazil,  after   Pão  de  Açúcar,  Carrefour  Brazil  and  Wal-­‐Mart  Brazil.  

Looking  ahead:  Growth  in  current  markets  vs.  untapped  markets   Cencosud  has  been  considering  the  idea  of  expanding  into  new  markets.  Mexico  represent  an  attractive   destination  for  Cencosud  due  to  its  growing  middle  class,  a  retail  sector  that  is  expected  to  grow  by  12%   by  2014  and  a  population  of  110  million  people.   XXXVI  However,  it  has  also  proved  to  be  one  of  the  most   challenging  markets  in  Latin  America  for  the  retail  sector.  Many  multinational  players,  like  Carrefour,  have  

 

8  

The  Fuqua  School  of  Business  at  Duke  University     been  unsuccessful  in  exploring  the  Mexican  market,  where  the  $49.4  billion  WalMex,  the  largest  grocery   store   chain   in   the   country,   rests   strong   and   dominates.XXXVII   Additionally,   entering   the   Mexican   market   would  require  a  significant  investment  for  Cencosud.  Another  market  Cencosud  is  considering  is  Panama.   The   country   has   become   one   of   the   fastest   and   best   managed   markets.   While   the   country   population   doesn’t  reach  the  3.5  million  people,  a  US  dollar-­‐based  economy  and  the  rapid  growth  in  infrastructure   and  real  state  might  position  Panama  as  a  very  attractive  destination  for  Cencosud.XXXVIII   At  the  same  time,  penetration  of  the  retail  sector  in  Brazil,  Colombia  and  Peru  remains  low.2    While  the   company  understands  additional  acquisitions  will  be  required  to  consolidate  its  presence  in  these  markets   and  close  the  gap  with  local  competitors,  Cencosud  has  to  be  careful  when  choosing  its  next  step.  Should   they   continue   pursuing   its   aggressive   diversification   strategy   and   expand   into   new   markets,   or   should   they  consolidate  its  market  position  in  Peru,  Colombia  and  Brazil?    

Carrefour  Colombia   Carrefour   is   a   French   multinational   retailer   headquartered   in   Boulogne   Billancourt,   France,   in   Greater   Paris.   It’s   one   of   the   largest   hypermarket   chains   in   the   world   (with   1,452   hypermarkets   at   the   end   of   2011),  the  fourth  largest  retail  group  in  the  world  in  terms  of  revenue  (after  Wal-­‐Mart,  Tesco  and  Costco),   and  the  third  in  profit  (after  Wal-­‐Mart  and  Tesco).    In  1973  it  began  its  international  expansion  by  opening   its   first   hypermarket   in   Spain,   under   the   store   Pryca   banner.   Later   on   1975,   Carrefour   arrived   to   Latin   America  by  opening  a  hypermarket  in  Brazil.     The  still  undergoing  European  crisis  damaged  Carrefour’s  European  operations.  Carrefour  has  struggled  in   recent   years   with   lower   sales   and   strategic   mistakes.   Analysts   attribute   its   poor   performance   to   overreliance   on   its   outdated   hypermarkets   and   to   fierce   competition   in   Western   Europe.   The   newly   appointed   CEO,   George   Plassat,   has   a   three-­‐year   plan   where   he   will   prioritize   lowering   the   company's   financial  costs  and  review  the  company's  operations  in  some  markets.     Carrefour  Colombia  (see   Exhibit   8  for  financial  information)  proved  to  be  a  successful  venture,  since  its   arrival   in   Colombia   in   1997   the   company   operates   72   hypermarkets,   16   convenience   stores   and   4   cash   and  carry  store  with  some  400,000  sqm  of  sales  area,  representing  revenues  over  $2  billion,  establishing   itself  as  the  second  largest  supermarket  chain  in  Colombia  with  a  market  share  of  some  17%XXXIX.    

                                                                                                                        2

 

 As  of  December  2011  

9  

The  Fuqua  School  of  Business  at  Duke  University    

Cencosud  and  the  Colombian  market   Although   Cencosud   has   displayed   a   longtime   interest   in   growing   its   presence   in   Colombia,   the   firm   has   not  been  successful  in  penetrating  the  market.    In  2006,  Cencosud  offered  to  buy  25%  of  Almacenes  Exito   (Colombia’s   food   retailer).   However,   the   offer   didn’t   go   through   and   Almacenes   Exito   remained   in   the   hands   of   the   Casino   Group   and   the   Toro   Family.   The   next   year,   Cencosud   secured   a   joint   venture   agreement   with   the   Casino   Group   to   develop   Cencosud’s   home   improvement   stores   in   Colombia.   However,   the   partnership   has   been   unsuccessful   in   growing   the   number   of   stores   due   to   real   state   unavailability  in  urban  areas.  On  June  of  this  year,  the  Company  manifested  its  interest  of  expanding  its   business  in  Colombia,  but  they  explicitly  mentioned  that  there  were  no  acquisition  plans  in  this  country   for  the  nearest  future.  

Principal  players  interested  in  the  transaction   After   several   months   of   work,   on   September   2010,   Credit   Suisse   distributed   invitations   to   strategic   participants   to   take   part   in   the   sales   process   of   Carrefour   Colombia.   This   meant   that   the   process   was   going  to  be  a  very  competitive  one.  Cencosud  knew  its  rivals,  Wal-­‐mart  and  Falabella,  were  interested  in   growing   its   operations   in   the   Colombian   market.   Cencosud   understood   that,   if   they   finally   decide   to   go   ahead  with  the  acquisition,  they  would  have  to  bear  some  additional  risks  in  order  to  beat  its  competitors   and  secure  its  offer.        

Going  forward   Juan   Manuel   was   at   a   crossroads.   The   acquisition   of   Carrefour   Colombia   was   certainly   a   unique   opportunity   for   Cencosud   to   penetrate   the   growing   Colombian   market   (Exhibit   9   details   growth   perspectives  in  the  Colombian  market).  It  would  allow  them  to  enter  the  supermarket  sector,  but  also,  by   acquiring   real   state   in   urban   areas,   they   could   grow   the   home   improvement   and   shopping   center   segments.     However,  Juan  Manuel  recognized  certain  risks.  This  transaction  would  represent  the  largest  acquisition   in  the  history  of  Cencosud.  Although  the  firm  has  proved  to  be  an  extraordinary  supermarket  operator,   this   acquisition   would   stress   Cencosud   debt   levels   and   would   probably   require   a   capital   increase.   Also,   Cencosud   could   not   continue   operating   with   the   Carrefour   brand.   The   firm   would   have   to   invest   in   a   massive  marketing  campaign  to  introduce  Cencosud  brands,  Jumbo  and  Maxi,  to  the  Colombian  market.     As  the  company  did  not  have  any  experience  in  rebranding,  he  was  concerned  about  the  results.    

 

10  

The  Fuqua  School  of  Business  at  Duke  University     Juan   Manuel   had   a   few   options   and   needed   to   act   fast.   Should   he   start   a   very   thorough   due   diligence   process  to  make  sure  the  acquisition  was  the  best  move  for  Cencosud,  and  then  disclose  his  findings  to   the  board?  Should  he  reach  out  immediately  to  Mr.  Paulmann  and  explain  why  he  believed  Cencosud  had   to  acquire  Carrefour  Colombia  before  its  competitors?  Or,  should  he  decide  not  to  participate  in  the  sales   process   and   wait   for   another   opportunity   once   he   acquires   more   experience   in   his   role   as   CFO?   With   these  questions  in  mind,  Juan  Manuel  knew  that  his  restlessness  was  justified.  

 

11  

 

The  Fuqua  School  of  Business  at  Duke  University     Exhibit  1:  Chilean  main  retail  players   Company

(in  $  million)

(in  $  million)

Market Cap.   2011

$15,749

$1,436

$13,107

27.6 million

Chile,  Argentina, Peru,  Brazil,   Colombia

$10,633

$1,591

$18,710

18.9  million

Chile,  Peru,   Argentina,   Colombia

NA

$5,394

$531

$3,172

7.5  million

Chile

NA

NA

$2,474

$221

$1,845

3.9 million

Chile,  Peru

NA

NA

$344

N.M.

$278

2.0  million

Chile,  Colombia

NA

NA

$471

$46

$235

0.9  million

Chile

Supermarkets

Department   Stores

Home   Improvement

Sales  2011 EBITDA  2011

Other brands  in  Latam markets

NA

(in  $  million)

Total Square   Latam Footprint   Feet 2011 2011

    Exhibit  2:  Projections  Of  Food  Retail  in  Colombia   Year   2013   2014   2015   2016   2017   2018   CAGR:  2013–18  

$  Billion   68.7   73.1   78.0   83.3   88.9   94.8  

COP  billion   128,503.2   136,614.1   145,888.3   155,717.1   166,208.6   177,311.6  

  Exhibit  3:  Brand  Portfolio  by  Country XL  

   

  12  

€  Billion   51.7   55.0   58.7   62.7   66.9   71.4  

%  Growth   6.4%   6.3%   6.8%   6.7%   6.7%   6.7%   6.7%  

The  Fuqua  School  of  Business  at  Duke  University     Exhibit  4:  Revenue  and  EBITDA  breakdown  by  business  segment XLI  

Revenue  By  Business  Segment     2%  

3%  

9%  

Supermarkets   Home  Improvement  

12%  

Department  Stores   Shopping  center  

74%  

Financial  Services  

 

EBITDA  by  Business  Segment  

13%   Supermarkets   Home  Improvement  

14%  

Department  Stores  

55%  

6%  

Shopping  center   Financial  Services  

12%  

           

 

 

13  

The  Fuqua  School  of  Business  at  Duke  University     Exhibit  5:  Cencosud  timeline XLII  

    Exhibit  6:  Cencosud’s  revenues  by  country  in  2011  

 

Source:  Cencosud  2011  Annual  Report.    

 

 

14  

The  Fuqua  School  of  Business  at  Duke  University     Exhibit  7:  Cencosud  Formats,  M arket  Position  and  Brands XLIII    

                       

 

15  

The  Fuqua  School  of  Business  at  Duke  University     Exhibit  8:  Carrefour  Colombia  Financial  Information  (all  figures  in  COP$  ‘000)   Income  Statem ent   REVENUES COST  OF  GOODS  SOLD GROSS  MARGIN ADMINISTRATIVE  EXPENSES SALES  EXPENSES OPERATIONAL  INCOME NON  OPERATIONAL  INCOME NON  OPERATIONAL  EXPENSES INTEREST  EXPENSE PROFIT  BEFORE  TAXES TAXES NET  PROFIT

$3,959,771,118 $3,172,582,701 $787,188,417 $364,924,341 $332,795,906 $89,468,170 $95,701,140 $120,728,888 $32,087,528 $64,440,422 $19,148,431 $45,291,991

DEPRECIATION  EXPENSE

 

 

$141,593,791  

 

16  

The  Fuqua  School  of  Business  at  Duke  University     Balance  Sheet   CASH%AND%CASH%EQUIVALENTS SAVINGS%ACCOUNTS SUBTOTAL SHORT%TERM%INVESTMENTS ACCOUNTS%RECEIVABLE TRADE%AND%OTHER%RECEIVABLES SHORT%TERM%PROMISES%OF%SALE DEPOSITS OTHR%SHORT%TERM%PROMISES%OF%SALE INCOME%RECEIVABLE TAX%ADVANCES SHORT%TERM%CLAIMS RECEIVABLES%FROM%EMPLOYEES OTHER%RECEIVABLES DOUBTFUL%ACCOUNTS SHORTDTERM%PROVISIONS SUBTOTAL%SHORT%TERM%DEBTORS OUTSOURCED%GOODS INTRANSIT%INVENTORIES PROVISIONS INVENTORY%SUBTOTAL PREPAID%EXPENSES DEFERRED%SUBTOTAL TOTAL%CURRENT%ASSETS INVESTMENTS PROMISES%OF%SALE VARIOUS%DEBTORS SUBTOTAL%LONG%TERM%DEBTORS PROPERTY,%PLANT%AND%EQUIPMENT COMMERCIAL%CREDIT RIGHTS ACCUMULATED%DEPRECIATION SUBTOTAL%INTANGIBLES DEFERRED%CHARGES ACCUMULATED%DEPRECIATION SUBTOTAL%DEFERRED ART%AND%CULTURE%PROPERTY SUBTOTAL%OTHER%ASSETS FIXED%ASSETS SUBTOTAL%VALUATIONS TOTAL%NONCURRENT%ASSETS TOTAL%ASSETS

$9,685,803 $50,503,730 $60,189,533 $542,478,532 $80,720,041 $22,959,804 $23,019,262 $1,129,824 $59,804,073 $296,206 $42,541,929 $8,032,351 $54,476 $1,244,915 $8,046,552 $8,046,551 $239,802,882 $378,528,221 $10,704,918 $26,204,794 $363,028,345 $7,765,767 $7,765,767 $1,213,265,059 $37,084 $22,283,624 $29,632,708 $51,916,332 $1,839,467,700 $92,092,956 $141,074,209 $20,373,286 $212,793,879 $218,167,045 $69,282,873 $148,884,172 $18,094 $18,094 $535,765,945 $535,765,945 $2,788,883,206 $4,002,148,265

       

 

17  

 

The  Fuqua  School  of  Business  at  Duke  University     SHORT&TERM)FINANCIAL)OBLIGATIONS SUPPLIERS PAYMENTS)TO)RELATED)COMPANIES PAYMENTS)TO)CONTRACTORS SHORT)TERM)EXPENSES)PAYABLE SHORT)TERM)OFFICIAL)CREDITORS WHITHOLDING)TAX SALES)TAX INDUSTRY)TAX PAYROLL)WITHHOLDINGS)AND)CONTRIBUTIONS CREDITORS SUBTOTAL)ACCOUNTS)PAYABLE TAX)FEES)AND)DUTIES LABOR)OBLIGATIONS PROVISIONS)FOR)COSTS)AND)EXPENSES PROVISIONS)FOR)LABOR)OBLIGATIONS PROVISIONS)FOR)FISCAL)OBLIGATIONS PROVISIONS)FOR)MAINTENANCE)AND)REPAIRS PROVISIONS)FOR)CONTINGENCIES SUBTOTAL)PROVISIONS DEFFERED)COSTS DEPOSITS)RECEIVED INCOME)RECEIVED)FOR)THIRD)PARTIES SUBTOTAL)LIABILITIES TOTAL)SHORT)TERM)LIABILITIES TAX)FEES)AND)DUTIES DEFERRED)TAXES SUBTOTAL)DEFERRED)TAXES TOTAL)LONG&TERM)LIABILITIES TOTAL)LIABILITIES PAID&IN)CAPITAL SUBTOTAL)CAPITAL SUBTOTAL)CAPITAL)SURPLUS RESERVES NET)INCOME VALORIZATION)SURPLUS TOTAL)ASSETS TOTAL)ASSETS)+)LIABILITIES PAXABLE)TAXES PAYABLES MEMORANDUM)CREDIT)ACCOUNTS CONTINGENCY)LIABILITIES TAX)CREDITORS MEMORANDUM)PAYABLE)ACCOUNTS

$519,230,540 $863,792,138 $1,217,808 $9,306,408 $46,777,542 $12,503,428 $4,588,249 $4,222,128 $613,252 $2,173,437 $5,183,046 $86,585,298 $46,052,250 $12,254,892 $17,038,634 $3,511,430 $16,571,036 $301,938 $2,106,327 $39,529,365 $11,732,121 $2,150,248 $5,555,516 $7,705,764 $1,586,882,368 $55,916,375 $13,295,921 $13,295,921 $69,212,296 $1,656,094,664 $920,500,000 $920,500,000 $324,000,000 $520,495,666 $45,291,991 $535,765,944 $2,346,053,601 $4,002,148,265 $166,848,361 $30,710,105 $76,398,582 $23,374,155 $53,024,427 $197,558,466

       

 

 

18  

 

The  Fuqua  School  of  Business  at  Duke  University     Exhibit  9:  Growth  Perspectives  for  the  Colom bian  M arket  

   

 

               

 

19  

The  Fuqua  School  of  Business  at  Duke  University     Bibliography   1. 2. 3.

4.

Carrefour  Group  Site.  History.  http://www.carrefour.com/content/history   The  Wall  Street  Journal.  “Carrefour  Loss  Narrows”.  NADYA  MASIDLOVER.   http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10000872396390444914904577620680509686036   The  Wall  Street  Journal.  “Carrefour  Names  CEO  for  Retail  Turnaround”.  Passsariello,  Masidlover  and   Landauro.  January  31,  2012. http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052970204740904577192192183472350 Reuters.  “Carrefour  faces  tough  choices  to  fund  revival”.  Aug  22,   2012.http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/22/carrefour-­‐funding-­‐idUSL6E8IV4HE20120822

  Sources                                                                                                                           I

 Market  Line  –  Chile  food  and  apparel  retail    “La  historia  del  Retail  en  Chile”.  http://archivosuai.eclass.cl/comunidad/articulo/45296/la-­‐historia-­‐del-­‐retail-­‐en-­‐ chile     III  Ibid.   IV  Falabella  Conference  –  Citibank,  NYC,  March  2012.   V  Cencosud  Presentation  –  2008.   VI  Economia  y  Negocios.  http://www.economiaynegocios.cl/noticias/noticias.asp?id=27645     VII  Argentina  Retail  Report  Q3  2011  –  Research  and  Markets.   VIII  Market  Line  –  Argentina  food  retail.   IX  CorpResearch  –  Retail  Sector  Report.   X  Thomas  White  International.  http://www.thomaswhite.com/global-­‐perspectives/retail-­‐sector-­‐in-­‐brazil-­‐riding-­‐the-­‐ wave-­‐of-­‐middle-­‐class-­‐growth-­‐and-­‐consumer-­‐credit-­‐boom/     XI  Market  Line  –  Brazil  food  retail.   XII  Thomas  White  International.  http://www.thomaswhite.com/global-­‐perspectives/retail-­‐sector-­‐in-­‐brazil-­‐riding-­‐the-­‐ wave-­‐of-­‐middle-­‐class-­‐growth-­‐and-­‐consumer-­‐credit-­‐boom/     XIII  ADVFN,  “With  Brazil  Acquisition,  Chile  Cencosud  Flexes  Its  Muscle”,  2011,   http://www.advfn.com/nyse/StockNews.asp?stocknews=WMT&article=44834315   XIV  Market  Line  –  Brazil  apparel  retail.   XV  My  EIU,  “Cencosud  leads  Chilean  incursion  into  Colombian  market”,  October  2012,     http://country.eiu.com/article.aspx?articleid=181377802&Country=Chile&topic=Economy&oid=1391538923&flid=1 579732542   XVI  Market  Line  –  Colombia  Food  Retail   XVII  Market  Line  –  Colombia  food  retail   XVIII  CorpResearch  –  Retail  Sector  Report.   XIX  PwC  Mexico  retail  sector  report   XX  Market  Line  –  Mexico  food  retail.   XXI  CorpResearch  –  Retail  Sector  Report.   XXII  Market  Line  –  Mexico  food  retail   XXIII  Ibid.   XXIV  Cencosud  Annual  Report  2011,  http://www.cencosud.com/wp-­‐content/files_mf/memoria201142.pdf   XXV  Cencosud  Report.  “Roadshow  Presentation”,  June  2012,  http://www.cencosud.com/wp-­‐ content/files_mf/6.enginvestorpresentationjune201237.pdf   XXVI  Cencosud.  “Financial  Retailing”,  http://www.cencosud.com/en/unidades-­‐de-­‐negocio/retail-­‐financiero/   XXVII  Cencosud  Annual  Report  2011.  “Business  Strategy”,  http://www.cencosud.com/wp-­‐ content/files_mf/memoria201142.pdf   XXVIII  Funding  Universe  http://www.fundinguniverse.com/company-­‐histories/cencosud-­‐s-­‐a-­‐history/   XXIX  Funding  Universe  http://www.fundinguniverse.com/company-­‐histories/cencosud-­‐s-­‐a-­‐history/   XXX  Funding  Universe  http://www.fundinguniverse.com/company-­‐histories/cencosud-­‐s-­‐a-­‐history/   II

 

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The  Fuqua  School  of  Business  at  Duke  University                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   XXXI

 Funding  Universe  http://www.fundinguniverse.com/company-­‐histories/cencosud-­‐s-­‐a-­‐history/    Progressive  Grocer,  “Cencosud  Reaches  Agreement  to  Acquire  Disco  From  Ahold”,  November  2003,   http://www.progressivegrocer.com/node/64253?sort_order=ASC     XXXIII  Business  Wire,  “Casino  Announces  Its  Intention  to  Enter  into  a  Joint  Venture  with  Cencosud  to  Develop  The  DIY   (Do-­‐It-­‐Yourself)  and  Home  Improvement  Retail  Business  in  Colombia”,  May  2007,   http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20070502005473/en/Casino-­‐Announces-­‐Intention-­‐Enter-­‐Joint-­‐Venture-­‐ Cencosud#.VN0aDy79yRg     XXXIV  Merger  Market  report,  “Clash  of  the  Titans”,  September  2012     XXXV  Bloomberg,  “Cencosud  Climbs  on  Purchase  of  Brazilian  Grocery  Chain”,  October  2010,   http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2010-­‐10-­‐18/chile-­‐s-­‐cencosud-­‐buys-­‐brazil-­‐retailer-­‐bretas-­‐in-­‐biggest-­‐deal-­‐ in-­‐five-­‐years   XXXVI  ATKearney  Report,  “2011  Global  Retail  Development  Index”,  2011   XXXVII  Merger  Market  report,  “Clash  of  the  Titans”,  September  2012   XXXVIII  ATKearney  Report,  “2011  Global  Retail  Development  Index”,  2011   XXXIX  Santander  Investment  research  department   XL  Cencosud  Report.  “Roadshow  Presentation”,  June  2012,  http://www.cencosud.com/wp-­‐ content/files_mf/6.enginvestorpresentationjune201237.pdf   XLI  Ibid   XLII  Ibid   XLIII  Ibid       XXXII

 

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