CalGEMs Conference 2014 June 2-6, 2014
Contents Overview
Performance
Q2/14 Outlook
Overview Performance Q2/14 Outlook
1
Oil Balance Thailand: Jan-Mar 2014
Adequate refining capacity maintains the stability of supply Overview
Performance
Supply Import (81%) 932KBD
Production
Sales
Imported Refined Petroleum Products 96 KBD Crude/ Condensate 836 KBD
Crude/ Condensate Indigenous (19%) 213 KBD 223 KBD
Q2/2014 Outlook
Total Refining Capacity in Thailand: 1,087 KBD
Domestic
Refined Products 957 KBD*
901 KBD PTT’s Associated Refineries : 910 KBD (TOP, PTTGC, SPRC, IRPC, BCP)
Refined Products 155 KBD
(**)
Export
Other Refineries : 177 KBD (ESSO)
Crude Export 10 KBD Source: PTIT Remark :
165 KBD
(*)Refined product from refineries= 859 KBD, including domestic supply of LPG from GSPs and Petrochemical Plants = 98 KBD (**) Not included Inventory KBD = Thousand Barrels per day 2
Natural Gas Balance: Jan – Mar 2014 Main driver of the Thai economy Overview
Supply
Performance
Q2/2014 Outlook
Production
Sales Ethane/ Propane/ LPG/NGL
Gulf of Thailand (80%)
Others 42%
Chevron 32%
PTTEP 26%
(15%)
3,555 MMSCFD
Bypass Gas 1,124 Onshore (3%) MMSCFD
936 MMSCFD (21%)
6 GSPs Total Capacity 2,740 MMSCFD @ Actual Heat
135 MMSCFD
LPG/NGL
Industry Household Transportation (6%)
Methane 1,495 MMSCFD
Power
Import (17%)
(58%)
Industry
LNG 21%
Myanmar 79%
Petrochemical Feedstock
NGV
(14%)
(7%)
774 MMSCFD
Remark: MMSCFD = Million Cubic Feet @ Heating Value 1,000 Btu/ft3
3
PTT is Thailand’s Largest Energy Company Overview
Performance
PTT Public Limited Company (“PTT”)
Q2/2014 Outlook
Robust revenue and Net Income growth since IPO (MMUSD)
Largest company on Thai Stock exchange
94,756
Market cap ~US$27bn1 or ~ THB843bn1
3,155
Group companies:16.8%1 of Thai Stock Exchange market
capitalization
Revenue
12,553
Majority owned by Thai government (66%) 51% by Ministry of Finance 15% by Vayupak Fund
International exploration and production business with 846 1
mmboe2 of proved reserves in 2013 Sole operator and owner of gas transmission pipelines and GSPs in Thailand Largest refinery group in Thailand with stakes in 5 of 6 refineries in the country Largest petrochemical producer group in Thailand with stakes in 6 of 8 major petrochemical plants Leading oil marketing business with 1,381 retail stations and 40% 2 of market share by volume International oil trading business having traded 15.1 bn liters 2 Coal business assets in Indonesia, Madagascar, and Brunei New Power Flagship (GPSC) to capture opportunity in neighboring ASEAN countries
As of 27 March 2014 2 As of March 2014 Note: THB/US$ exchange rate of 31.50
Affiliate
31%
PTT
Net Income 702 19% 81%
Fully integrated and highly diversified over the entire O&G
value chain
59%
2001 IPO
2013
International and local recognition
144th in 2013 167th in 2012 171th in 2011
Thailand best borrower award 2014 Best CEO Best CFO Best Managed Company Best Corporate Governance Best Investor Relations Best Corporate Social Responsibility Best Commitment to Strong Dividend Policy
Platts Top 250 Global Energy Company
18th Overall Performance of 2013
81st Fortune Global 500 in 2013 95th in 2012 128th in 2011
SET Awards Top Corporate
Governance Report Award 2010 & 2011
Dow Jones Sustainability Index (DJSI)
Best Corporate Social
Responsibility Awards 2011 & 2012
DJSI Member 2013-2014 (Listed in 2011)
4
PTT’s Strategic Importance to Thailand Overview
Performance
Ministry of Finance holds majority stake in PTT
Public 34%
PTT ratings at Thai sovereign level
Thai Ministry of Finance 51%
• Foreign 17% • Thai 17%
Q2/2014 Outlook
Vayupak Fund1 15%
Kingdom of Thailand – FC
Baa1
BBB+
BBB+
A-
PTT – FC
Baa1
BBB+
BBB+
A-
PTT – LC
Baa1
BBB+
A-
A
Note: As of March 2014
Largest market cap on the Thai Stock Exchange PTT
PTTEP
PTTGC
TOP
IRPC
BCP
Total
Others
Market cap (BNUSD)2
26.7
19.5
10.3
3.4
2.1
1.3
63.3
319.7
% of SET
7.0%
5.1%
2.7%
0.9%
0.6%
0.4%
16.8%
83.2%
Moody’s rating
Baa1
Baa1
Baa2
Baa1
Ba1
N.A.
-
-
S&P rating
BBB+
BBB+
BBB
BBB
BB+
N.A.
-
-
1
The Vayupak Fund is a registered investment management fund in Thailand in which the Government is a major unit holder. The Government has rights of first refusal with respect to any of our shares to be sold by the fund. Although the fund’s shareholding may be considered to be beneficially owned by the Government under international standards, such shares are not considered to be owned by the Government for the purposes of Thai law or our compliance with certain of our debt covenants 2 Based on data as of 27 March 2014/ THB/US$ exchange rate of 31.50
5
Our Major Businesses & Activities Overview
Intermediate
Upstream
Business Areas
E&P
Gas
New Business
Downstream
Oil Marketing
Performance Company
PTT’s holding (%)
Coal Power
Activities
PTTEP
65.29%
Exploration and Production
PTT PLC • Gas Pipeline • S&M • GSP
100% 100% 100%
Sole owner/operator of the Transmission pipeline Supply & Marketing of Natural Gas Extracting Hydrocarbon contents in NG for Petrochemical’s feedstock
• Oil Marketing
100%
Retail service Stations and commercial Marketing
• Int’l Trading
100%
Import/Export/Out-Out trading of petroleum and petrochemical products
PTTGC
48.89%
Petrochemical Flagship
TOP
49.10%
Integrated Refinery & Petrochemical
IRPC
38.51%
Integrated Refinery & Petrochemical
SPRC
36.00%
Stand alone Complex Refinery
BCP
27.22%
Complex Refinery & Retail Stations
Int’l Trading
Petrochemic al & Refining
Q2/2014 Outlook
PTT Energy Resources 100%
Coal Business
GPSC
Power Flagship
30.10%
6
PTT Aspiration
Strategic direction and target to achieve “Big-Long-Strong” aspiration Overview
Performance
Q2/2014 Outlook
“Thai Premier Multinational Energy Company”
Strong TOP Quartile ROIC
Long
Big
Ranked Fortune 81th
Listed in DJSI since 2011
Technologically Advanced and Green National Oil Company 7
Q1/14 Performance: PTT’s Strong Performance offset weaker Affiliates Overview
Performance
Q2/14 Outlook
MMTHB
35,804 Refinery
Petrochem
PTTEP
3,269
2,595
Gross margin
4,329 487
FX OPEX* gain
4,985
Share of income
6,569
23%
4,002
2,852
27,448
Interest NCI expense & income taxes 12,602
3,516
54%•• 46%
7,450
41%
1,509
Total intake decreased 10% Avg. ACC GRM decreased 30% Overall spread margins drop esp. PX Sales vol. decreased 6%
Sales vol. increased 3% Avg. selling price decreased 3% Gas Avg. NG gas margin increased Avg. GSP sales vol. decreased 8% More loss on NGV
PTT
12,308
Gross margin
FX gain
OPEX * Share of Interest income expense & Income taxes
NCI
13,739
Oil vol. increased 6% Oil margin increased 2% Trading Margin increased 30%
Others
1,056
1,234
Q1/2013
Q1/2014
*including petroleum exploration expenses and royalties
12%
13%
Better coal performance from cost reduction program
8
Contents Overview
Performance
Q2/14 Outlook
Overview Performance Q2/14 Outlook
9
E&P Key Overview in Q1/14 Overview
Performance E&P
Gas
Oil & Trading
Q2/14 Outlook Refining
PetChem
Others
Exploration Portfolio Expansion
Successful Brazil acreage farm-in Proceeding with exploration and appraisal program as planned
Growth-Delivering Development and Solid Operations
Montara gradual ramp-up Zawtika gas delivered to domestic market Resilient domestic gas demand
Value-Accretive Portfolio Management
Consolidate domestic leadership through Hess Thailand acquisition Rationalizing asset value through Canada oil Sands asset swap
10
E&P Performance:
Expenses and prices pressured performance Overview
Performance Gas Oil & Trading
E&P
Product Prices 103.74
Liquid (USD/BBL)
67.03
Weighted Avg. (USD/BOE)
101.53
100.84
64.48**
64.92**
7.96
7.64*
7.79*
Q1/13
Q4/13
Q1/14
Gas (USD/MMBTU)
Refining
Q2/14 Outlook PetChem
Others
Sales Volume 1%QoQ 3% YoY
KBOED
1%QoQ 3% YoY
2%QoQ 2% YoY
0.3% QoQ 3% YoY
292
300
299
101
101
101
Liquid
191
199
198
Gas
Q1/13
Q4/13
Q1/14
* Gas price, if excludes Vietnam 16-1 retroactive sale recording, is 7.98$ for Q4 13 and 7.97$ for Q1 14 ** Average selling price, if excludes Vietnam 16-1 retroactive sale recording is 66.4$ for Q4 13 and 65.91$ for Q1 14
Net Income (100%) MMUSD
60% QoQ 44% YoY
680 380 238
* Not-restated
Q1/13
Key Overview
Q4/13*
Q1/14
QoQ • Sales volume slightly decreased from Vietnam16-1, S-1 project and Yadana while average prices slightly increased. • Net income increased mainly due to lower exploration expense, G&A and lower income tax. YoY • Sales volume increased mainly from start up of Montara/ MTJDAB17 / Natuna Sea A and First Gas sale in March of Zawtika Project. • Net income decreased due to higher loss from non-recurring item, DD&A and Operating expense of PTT Australasia project
11
E&P Roadmap:
Building Strong Platform to Deliver Growth
On target development to achieve solid growth Overview and exploration progress Performance Q2/14 Outlook E&P
Gas
Oil & Trading
Refining
PetChem
Others
On target development and exploration progress to achieve solid growth Q1 2014 Analyst Meeting
Focus Areas
Q1 14
Q2 14
Q3 14
= Completed
Q4 14
2015
~2020
Myanmar M3 appraisal drilling start Brazil farm-in and first entry Maple East-1 exploration drilling start Myanmar PSC-G & EP-2 exploration drilling start Zawtika appraisal drilling start Zawtika gas export to Thailand Zawtika domestic gas delivery Montara sub-sea wells tie-in
Mozambique LNG expected FID Algeria Bir Seba first oil
Expected Contribution • Thornbury • MZ LNG • Myanmar M3
Announce Canada oil sands asset swap Announce Hess Thailand acquisition Pursue M&A strategy and continue to evaluate asset rationalization opportunities
329 KBOED 2013 Actual Production Volume
>10%
~7%
Growth
Growth
~600 KBOED
12
Gas BU Performance:
Better performance from better GSP margin Overview
Performance E&P
Gas
Oil & Trading
MMSCFD 4,695
MMSCFD AVG.
2014 2012
4,695
4,746
4,675 4,611
4,439 4,507
4,488
4,462
4,284
Q1
Q2
Q3
Refining
PetChem
Others
NG Customer Breakdown
NG Sales Volume
2013
Q2/14 Outlook
303 630
4,580
NGV (7%)
319 632
911
910 GSP (21%)
660
710
896
610 IPP (14%)
1,380
1,052
1,258 EGAT (28%)
Q1/13
Q4/13
Q1/14
528 866
4,439
Q4
4,439
308 635
988
4,537
4,462
0.5% QoQ 5% YoY
Industry (14%) SPP (16%)
Key Overview
NGV Sales Volume 4% QoQ 5% YoY 8.57
8.87
8.43
QoQ
•
NG volume decreased mainly from lower demand from EGAT due to cold weather
•
Higher NGV Sales volume due to # NGV stations back to normal operation
YoY
Q1/13 Vol. MMCFD
303
Q4/13
Q1/14
308
319
•
NG volume decreased mainly due to cold weather at beginning of this year dragged demand of Natural Gas from EGAT
•
NGV Sales volume increased by 5%
13
Gas BU Performance :
Better performance from better GSP margin Overview
Performance E&P
Gas
Oil & Trading
1,562
1,539
1,537
1,482
1,535
887
864
858
403
375
338
1,632
PP HDPE
1,555
220
Q4/13
12,381 1,741 4,008
6,562
5,921
4,760
5,977
-4,219
Q1/13
*Not Restated
-5,266
Q4/13*
1,507
1,508 Propane (14%)
552
509
476
Ethane (32%)
184
173
185
NGL (12%)
676
648
638
LPG (42%)
Q1/13
Q4/13
Q1/14
Naphtha
Q1/14
0.1% QoQ 8% YoY 209
Gas BU EBITDA MMTHB
Others
177
GSP Cost
1,535 3,135
PetChem
KTon
USD/Ton
11,773
Refining
GSP Sales Volume
GSP - Reference Product Prices
Q1/13
Q2/14 Outlook
Key Overview 17% QoQ 23% YoY
14,488 1,906
Others
5,675
GSP
6,886
TM
4,757
S&M
-4,736
NGV
QoQ
•
EBITDA increased from higher margin of GSPs and resumption of GSP#5
YoY
•
Better performance from GSPs due to an decrease in NG feed cost and higher margin on GSPs.
•
However, more loss on NGV limit gain on Gas BU performance
Q1/14
14
Gas BU:
4th onshore pipeline delay but negligible Overview
Business & Roadmap E&P
Gas
Performance
Oil & Trading
Q2/14Outlook
Refining
PetChem
New Business
4th onshore pipeline project •
Cost 40 Billion THB
•
1 year delayed
•
Impact manageable
15
Oil BU Performance :
Margin and inventory gain drive performance Overview
Performance Gas Oil & Trading
E&P
Contribution Margin 1/ 39% QoQ 2% YoY
MM Liter
4% QoQ 6% YoY 6,295
0.92
0.90 0.66
Q1/13
Q4/13
5,956
Q1/14
Q1/13 2
Excluded non–oil business
Oil BU - EBITDA 142% QoQ 14% YoY
3,879
5,049
2,088
4,408
Oil
1,445 536
643
641
Q1/13
Q4/13**
Q1/14
* EBITDA from Operating ** Not restated
6,031
Q4/13
Q1/14
/ Only PTT and PTTRM
Key Overview
MMTHB
4,415
Others
Sales Volume 2/
THB/Liter
1/
Refining
Q2/14 Outlook PetChem
Non-Oil*
QoQ • EBITDA surged from better margins and sales volume • Strong performance of non-oil despite political unrest YoY • Better margin mainly from aviation fuel together with stock gain • Higher sales volume from all products esp. diesel and aviation • Growing non-oil business performance following branch expansion
16
Trading BU Performance :
FX and lower condensate discount support margin Overview
Performance E&P
Gas
Q2/14 Outlook
Oil & Trading
Contribution Margin* 44% QoQ 30% YoY
0.13
0.09
Q1/13
Q4/13
PetChem
Others
Sales Volume
THB/Liter
0.10
Refining
MM Liter 16,612
16,824
10% QoQ 9% YoY
15,113
Q1/14
Q1/13
Q4/13
Q1/14
* PTT only : FX Adjustment in compliance with Accounting Standard
Trading BU - EBITDA*
Key Overview 26% QoQ 15% YoY
MMTHB
1,940 1,680
Q1/13
1,541
Q4/13
QoQ • Higher margins from better spread from crude price and condensate • Sales volume dropped mainly from SPRC T/A and lower SPOT sales • YoY • Better margins from lower domestic condensate discount and petrochemical margin of PTTT • Lower sales volume mainly from out – out transactions
Q1/14
17
Refining Business Performance:
GRM drop following tumbled Crude from China slowdown/QE Overview
Performance E&P
Gas
Q2/14 Outlook
Oil & Trading
USD/BBL
108.2
106.8
104.5
7.36
7.11
A/C GIM
19% QoQ 16% YoY
Aggregated Intake (KBD)
5.95
5.45 5.41
3.81
4.07 3.82
2.03
Mkt GRM A/C GRM
Q1/13 Stock Gain/Loss
Q4/13
-0.16
PetChem
Others
Refinery Utilization
GRM/GIM Dubai
Refining
Q1/14
0.95
-0.90
732
733
662
U-Rate (%)
Q1/13
Q4/13
Q1/14
Aggregated U-Rate
93
93
85
TOP
100
101
105
IRPC
85
81
80
SPRC
101
105
BCP
83
84
10% QoQ 10% YoY
T/A (23 days)
60 T/A (38 days) 82
Net Income (100%) YoY
MMTHB
90% QoQ
6,787
52% YoY
2,197
3,269
153
1,565 3,227 1,210
1,721
344
733 784
2,534
10
* Not restated
TOP
+ Better net marketing margin - Decline in Crude run - Decrease in total GRM
IRPC
+ Better A/C GIM from; higher petroleum product spreads
TOP
+ Higher U-Rate - Lower Mkt GRM - More Stock loss from soften Dubai - Pressured PX, while stable BZ margin
SPRC
- Plant Turnaround: 8 Feb – 17 Mar - Lower A/C GRM
194
-1,174
Q1/13
BCP IRPC
BCP
Q4/13*
Q1/14
SPRC
& more usage of domestic crude - T/A 14-23 days (18 Mar – 9 Apr)
18
Refineries : Going forward Overview
Performance
Turnaround
E&P
CDU-3 Major Turnaround (165 KBD) : Jun-July
Oil & Trading
Refining
No major turnaround after planned S/D during 18 Mar-9 Apr
(To produce more diesel/jet at expense of fuel oil) -COD : Q2/2014
• CDU-3 Crude Preheat Train (Reduce fuel usage) -COD: Q3/2014
PetChem
Others
Turnaround Maintenance : 1May15 Jun (46 Days) • Install new CDU (100KBD)
~55 Days • HCU Revamp
Project Updates
Gas
Q2/14 Outlook
•UHV Project on track (Increase Propylene from 412 KTA to 732 KTA) - Upgrading bottom refinery product to high value added for Petrochem feedstock) -COD : Q3/2015
• Solar: Phase 3 (48 MW PPA) - COD earlier than plan (Apr./14)
• Delta Project - Benefit : USD 5.6 MM
•Explore New Geography: Myanmar & Indonesia: by 2014
19
Petrochemical: Olefins In Good Shape; Aromatics Under Pressured Overview
Performance E&P
Gas
Oil & Trading
Global Ethylene Demand/Supply Addition
4
90%
Additional Demand
86.2% 85.6%
Million Metric Ton
3 88.3%
Operating Rate
87.7%
88%
2
86%
Demand 84%
2012
2013
2014
1
Million Metric Ton
Additional Demand 80.7%
Additional Supply Op Rate
Forecast
-1
72.3%
Supply 69%
80.8%
80.1%
6
79.7%
2014
2015
Global PX Demand/Supply Addition
83.4%
84.5%
Additionl Supply
Op Rate
1 78%
2013
2014
2015
65%
90%
83.4%
85%
76.6%
4
2
0
67%
Forecast
Additional Demand
80%
71.3%
3
Demand
Source: IHS as of 3 Mar 14
2013
5
Supply 79.4%
2012
2012
Million Metric Ton 7
80%
2011
73%
Ample capacity add will knock off margins
82%
4 2
72.7% 71.3%
2011
Supply jump from U.S. shale gas will weaken price
6
72.4%
75%
0
2015
Global Propylene Demand/Supply Addition 8
72.1%
Forecast
Additional Demand Additional Supply Operating Rate
Demand
0
2011
Others
71%
85.8%
Supply
2
PetChem
Oversupply from Asian refineries
Forecast
Additional Supply 6
Refining
Global Benzene Demand/Supply Addition
Demand over supply
Million Metric Ton 8
Q2/14 Outlook
75%
70%
Supply
65%
Demand
0
60%
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
20
Petrochemical Business Performance: Pressured PX price stumble performance Overview
Performance E&P
Gas
Q2/14 Outlook
Oil & Trading
Refining
Refineries 101%
4.37
3.73
BTX U-Rate
3.42
4.48 4.12
93%
92%
101% 5.31
22% QoQ 10% YoY
Mkt GRM A/C GRM
91%
669 502
430 PX-Cond
Stock Gain/Loss
Q1/13
Q4/13
Q1/14
-0.91
1.11
-0.69 Q1/13
97% 93%
Unit : MMTHB S/D P: I-1 (37days) 77% U: I-4/1(23days)
590
5% QoQ
USD/Ton
6,766
19% YoY
521
17% QoQ 40% YoY
7,924
12,075
Q4/13
PX-Cond
42%
387
Q1/14
Net Income (100%)
13,303
Q1/13
12%
Q4/13
620
HDPE-Naphtha
BZ-Cond
380
346
YoY
BZ-Cond
Olefins Olefins U-Rate
Others
Aromatics
103%
CDU U-Rate
PetChem
Q1/14
Q1/13
7,420
6,296
Q4/13
Q1/14
Others HMC PTTGC
YoY PTTGC
+ Mkt GRM slightly increased + Olefins spreads improved - Aromatic spreads tumbling - Sales Vol. decreased due to I-1 & I-4/1 S/D
21
Petrochemical : Going Forward Overview
Performance E&P
Gas
Oil & Trading
Q2/14 Outlook Refining
PetChem
Others
22
Other Businesses : Coal - SAR (94.58%) Better performance from cost reduction initiatives Overview
Performance E&P
Gas
Q2/14 Outlook
Oil & Trading
Refining
Avg. Selling Price & Cash cost USD/Ton 76
70
68
3% QoQ 11% YoY
Sales Volume KTon 13% QoQ 17% YoY
Selling price
3,334 2,472
50 44
40
493
Cash Costs
10% QoQ 12% YoY
Q1/13
Q4/13
Q1/14
Net Income (100%) MMUSD
296% QoQ 18% YoY
9.6
8.2
Q1/13
*
Q4/13
Q1/14
Others
PetChem
1,062
1,979
2,272
Q1/13
Q4/13
2,899 941 Sebuku 1,958 Jembayan
Q1/14
Key Overview QoQ • Net income increased mainly from lower depreciation and no write-off, despite lower sales volume and higher cash cost YoY • Sales volume slightly increased due to higher production from Sebuku mine especially from Northern Leases area. • Net income increased as consequence of cost reduction initiatives and mine plan optimization.
-4.9 *Not restated
23
SAR Project Update Overview
Performance E&P
Gas
Oil & Trading
Q2/14 Outlook Refining
PetChem
Others
2014 Operational Plan Overview: • Continue cost reduction initiative program under downturn market (mainly on mining and logistics)
Target to reduce at least 5% from 2013 • Improve working efficiency through corporate reorganization and cost reduction program • Study coal blending to optimize SAR resources • Market expansion in India and South East Asia region as well as domestic market in Indonesia.
24
Other Businesses : Power - GPSC (30.10%) Better performance as a result of TFRIC#4 Overview
Performance E&P
Gas
Q2/14 Outlook
Oil & Trading
Sales Volume
Refining
PetChem
Others
Net Income (100%)
KMWh KTon
MMBaht 6% QoQ
34% QoQ (Power) 8% QoQ (Steam)
2,126
Power
Q4/13
Q1/14
2%
1,591 32
1,521
1,559
2013
As of Q1/2014
*Power only (excludingSteam) According to Business Plan 2014-18 (@ 4 Mar 2014 (To be revised) ** By year-end 2014
18%
1,871 78
1,793
Q4/13*
Q1/14 (Before TFRIC#4)
Q1/14 (After TFRIC#4)
*Not restated
Moving Forward (Capacity*)
32
251
1,111
Steam
1,553
294
312
1,413
1,214
MW
15%QoQ
Renewable
Key Overview QoQ • Lower power sales volume from Sriracha plant S/D • Lower steam sales volume due to customers’ S/D
Conventional
Next Step**
25
GPSC Project Update Overview
Performance E&P
Gas
Oil & Trading
Q2/14 Outlook Refining
PetChem
Others
Update Progress (Q1-2014) Completed transfer shares of 5 power assets from PTT Combined Heat and Power Producing Company Limited (CHPP) Bang Pa-In Cogeneration Company Limited (BIC) Thai Solar Renewable Company Limited (TSR) Natee Synergy Company Limited (NSC) NavaNakorn Electricity Generating Company Limited (NNEG) Credit facility Signed between GPSC and KTB, BAY, TISCO, MIZUHO and GSB in the amount of 8,600 MTHB on Mar 20,2014 Highlight Planned Activities 2014 Transfer shares of the remaining 2 power assets from PTT/PTTER Ratchaburi Power Company Limited (RPCL) Nam Lik 1 Power Company Limited (NL1PC)
GPSC Initial Public Offering Preparation
26
PTT Consolidated Performance: Q1/2014 Performance
Overview
Dubai (USD/BBL)
108.2
106.8
Q2/14 Outlook
Q1/14
104.5
Others
PTTEP 4% QoQ
Unit : MMTHB
2% YoY 749,995
699,864
716,571
4%
8%
PTT - Gas 16%
Revenue 72%
Revenue
PTT - Oil & Trading Q1/2013
Q4/2013*
Q1/2014 9% QoQ 12% YoY 64,492
EBITDA
57,335
Q1/2013
PTT - Gas
Q4/2013 *
23% EBITDA 65%
Q1/2014
6%
27,448
EPS (THB/Share) * Not restated
PetChem
15,392
12.52
Q4/2013* 5.32
4%
13% Net Income
PTTEP 27%
50%
Q1/2014 9.60
PTTEP
Others
Refining
23% YoY
35,804
Q1/2013
4%
8%
58,983
78% QoQ
Net Income
Others
PTT - Oil & Trading
PTT
27
Statement of Financial Position Overview
Performance
MMTHB
Decreased assets : • A/R due to lower sales volume
1.4% 1,805,308 Cash & S/T Invest Other Current Assets
Others Noncurrent Assets
160,370
1,779,380 198,574
509,287
467,065
Q2/14 Outlook
Other Liabilities
Decreased PP&E: • Reclassification of related PP&E as noncurrent assets held-for-sales of PTTEP
363,206 379,137
541,946
465,864
471,395
L/T Liabilities (incl. due within 1 yr)
525,963
12.8
12.6
1.3
1.4
0.4
0.4
Q1/13
Q4/13
4.5 4.0 * 13.6 ICR3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.2 1.5 Net Debt/EBITDA ≤ 2.0 1.0 0.3 0.5 Net Debt/Equity≤ 1.0 0.0 Q1/14
*ICR = EBITDA/Interest Expense
PP&E
739,785
846,451
824,626 675,705
Total Equity
PTT Ratings at Sovereign Level − FC
: Moody’s (Baa1), S&P (BBB+), JCR (A-), FITCH (BBB+)
− LC 31 Dec 13
31 Mar 14
: Moody’s (Baa1), S&P (BBB+), JCR (A), FITCH (A-)
28
Dividend Policy & Historical Payments PTT is firmly committed to pay dividend at no less than 25% of net income
Performance
Overview
32.4%32.6% 29.8% 30.1% 30.3% 30.8%
.
Q2/14 Outlook
43.6% 40.4%
34.7% 34.9% 35.5% 39.3%Dividend payout
PTT’s minimum payout ratio Baht / share
30.57
34.14 34.82
18.33 7.71 8.75 4.00 2.50 2.85 1
6.75
33.07
29.58
22.40 13.43
36.64
.
11.50 10.50 9.25 8.00
21.06 EPS
8.50
10.25
13.00 13.00 13.00 DPS
1
11
1
1 29
PTT: CAPEX (PTT and Wholly Owned Subsidiaries) PTT plans to invest ~Bt 327bn ($10bn) during 2014-2018 Overview
Performance
Q2/2014 Outlook
CAPEX Breakdown : 5 Years By Business Unit
Unit: MMTHB
Investment in Joint Venture and Its subsidiaries Head Office and Others Oil and International Trading JV & Investment in Natural Gas Subsidiaries 38%
LPG import facility 4th
pipeline & extension
Gas 42% M&A and Investment Oversea 24%
R&D, Others 3%
86, LNG, M&A and Investment Oversea 38,404
LNG 14%
, 1
, 1
,
29,043
18,733 457 11,503
6,888 11,753
17,563 3,206 9,319
29,903
22,826
17,177
2014
2015
2016
765 11,925
Oil & Trading 17%
, 18,709 44 10,415
30,103
37,839
201
201 30
Contents Overview
Performance
Q2/2014 Outlook
Overview Performance Q2/14 Outlook
31
Economic Outlook : Challenges ahead Overview
Performance
Q2/14 Outlook
US Market : shows signs of stronger recovery : - US Economics Recovery : - Fed to keep QE tapering on course
EU market: keep an eye on political issue
: - EU Economy tends to recover from recession : - Ukraine and Russia political tension tend to escalate
China market: conservative growth
: - IMF Raise Chinese GDP Forecast to 7.5% in Y2014 : - Chinese Credit Controls : slower sustainable growth
AEC market : effect from Capital Out Flow
: - IMF forecast ASEAN-51 GDP growth in 2014 around 4.9%
: - Risk of Capital Outflow and rising interest rate
Thailand market: Prolonged Politcal Turmoil
: - Export growth according to global economies recovery : - How long Thailand can have election
- Risk of Thailand Credit Rating Downgrade
PTT Performance: Better performance from professional management : - Better Performance under political uncertainty : - Hanging Issue: on LPG and NGV Pricing Cap 1
Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.
32
32
Crude Oil Outlook: Limited Demand on Refinery Turn Around Overview
Q2/14 Outlook
Performance
World Oil Demand/Supply Balance MBD
Dubai
95 94 93 92 91 90 89 88 87 86 85
MBD
Dubai
$109/bbl
$105/bbl
Dubai
$104/bbl 91.8
91.6 90.4 89.2
90.1
7 6 5 4
88.7
3 2
“OPEC spare capacity rises in 2014. OPEC will play an important role to balance global oil demand/supply to maintain oil price of $1 /barrel”
1 0
2012
2013
World oil Demand(LHS)
2014
World Oil Supply(LHS)
OPEC Spare Capacity*(RHS)
Crude Oil Price Forecast range bound 102-104 $/bbl 2013 Dubai $105.5/bbl
2014 Q1 Dubai $104.4/bbl
Dubai Forecast 2014 Range $102-$104/bbl
102.6 102.8
103.3 103.7
103.8 103.8
104.3 104.5
Psychology level @ 100 USD/BBL
Factors to watch Ukraine and Russia political tension remains US and EU Economics Improved
Asia Pacific Refineries turnaround season in Q2/2014 Easing Libyan supply disruption
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13 WTI
Oct-13 Brent
Jan-14 Dubai
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Dubai Forecast (PTT Group PRISM)
Source: EIA report Apr ’14, OPEC World Oil Outlook, (PTT Group) Estimated (28.04.2014)
Chinese economy grows more conservative
33
Henry Hub / JKM Price Outlook: US Gas in Surplus due to Significant Production Growth /Korean ample supply to pressure Performance Q2/14 Outlook JKMOverview Price US LNG Export Terminal Projects
LNG Global Demand/Supply
Excess Supply expected in L-T
Henry Hub Natural Gas Price Forecast
EIA’s projected HH Price in
1 is .
Japan-Korea Market Price Forecast
USD/MMBTU
JKM Price in 2014 is approx. 16-17 USD/MMBTU
Factors to watch Higher
US Gas Demand from Cold Snap Lowest
Factors to watch Uncertainty of Japan Nuclear Policy
Inventory lowest in 5-year average
to restart Nuclear Power Plant
US gas balances in surplus from shale gas asset
Kogas has faced High LNG Inventory as result of mild weather in Korea
Source : Short term 2014 Outlook, April 2014 EIA, Street Research, Bloomberg and PTT
34
Refinery Margin Outlook : Firm GRM in Q2-14 due to tight supply during refinery maintenance Overview
Performance
CDU Additional Vs Additional Demand –AP&ME
Demand Growth
Refinery Maintenance in Asia-Pacific Area
Supply Growth
Jan-14
“Expected supportive GRM in 1 due to limited net capacity addition as refinery closure in Japan, Australia & project postponement in China” 25
Q2/14 Outlook
Feb-14
V
Jul-14
Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14
Nov-14 Dec-14
“Seasonal Peak Refinery maintenance in Asia-Pacific during limits crude oil demand but supports to petroleum product market .”
Singapore GRM Forecast to be around 6-7 $/bbl Forecast
GO
20
Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14
Factors to watch Asia-Pacific Refineries turnaround in 2Q/2014 US stockpiling ahead of driving season
15
Mogas
10 5 0
FO
-5
Stockpiling in the Muslim countries ahead for Ramadan Impact from Jubail Refinery (400KBD) run full operation Off-peak traveling season
-10 -15 Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Source: FACTS, DB, KBC, Reuters , IEA, Reuters, Thaioil and PRISM Estimated (April 2014)
35
Petrochemical Outlook : Olefin spread to move slightly upward from cracker T/A Overview
Asia Propylene Supply/Demand Balance
Asia Ethylene Supply/Demand Balance
Million Metric Tons
Million Metric Tons
4.5
Q2/14 Outlook
Performance
4.5 Note: Domestic demand excludes export volume
4.0
4.0
3.5
3.5
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
*Non-steam cracking availability includes production from metathesis, PDH and FCC Splitter
Olefins Product Spread
Unit :USD/TON 800 Spread HDPE
Spread PP
Y 2014
600
•
HDPE-Naphtha expected to be around 540-640 USD/TON
•
PP-Naphtha expected to be around 560-660 USD/TON
Factors to watch Tighten supply from Propylene Plant T/A
400
US and EU Economics Recovery
200 Uncertainty on PP demand in Indonesia Market
0
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Source: PRISM Estimated, PTTGC
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
More spot available from middle east when UAE’s Borouge Start up ethane cracker in early Jun.
36
Petrochemical Outlook : Weak Downstream Demand Weighs Down PX Market Overview
Q2/14 Outlook
Performance
Asia PX Supply/Demand Balance
Asia Benzene Supply/Demand Balance
AP/ME PX Capacity* and Supply
Demand
Remark:* Normalized capacity to start up period
Unit :USD/TON
AP/ME Benzene Capacity* and Supply
Capacity
Demand
Aromatics Product Spread
800
Spread BZ
Spread PX
Capacity
Remark:* Normalized capacity to start up period
Y 2014
600
•
Bz-Naphtha forecasted to be around 300-400 USD/TON
•
PX-Naphtha forecasted to be around 240-290 USD/TON
Factors to watch Light feed in US to Support BZ Market in Asia Pacific
400
PX producers run cut and PX plants maintenance
200
0
PX Supply overwhelm from New Capacity in South Korea, Chin and Saudi Arabia Soft PTA and Polyester demand Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Source: PRISM Estimated, Thaioil
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
37
Thank you PTT Public Company Limited – Investor Relations Department Tel. +66 2 537-3518, Fax. +66 2 537-3948, E-mail:
[email protected] Website: http://www.pttplc.com
Disclaimer The information contained in our presentation is intended solely for your personal reference only. In addition, such information contains projections and forward-looking statements that reflect our current views with respect to future events and financial performance. These views are based on assumptions subject to various risks and uncertainties. No assurance is given that future events will occur, that projections will be achieved, or that our assumptions are correct. Actual results may differ materially from those projected. Petroleum Reserves and Resources Information In this presentation, the Company discloses petroleum reserves and resources that are not included in the Securities Exchange and Commission of Thailand (SEC) Annual Registration Statement Form 56-1 under “Supplemental Information on Petroleum Exploration and Production Activities”. The reserves and resources data contained in this presentation reflects the Company’s best estimates of its reserves and resources. While the Company periodically obtains an independent audit of a portion of its proved reserves, no independent qualified reserves evaluator or auditor was involved in the preparation of reserves and resources data disclosed in this presentation. Unless stated otherwise, reserves and resources are stated at the Company’s gross basis. This presentation may contain the terms “proved reserves”, “probable reserves”, and/or “contingent resources”. Unless stated otherwise, the Company adopts similar description as defined by the Society of Petroleum Engineers. Proved Reserves - Proved reserves are defined as those quantities of petroleum which, by analysis of geological and engineering data, can be estimated with reasonable certainty to be commercially recoverable, from a given date forward, from known reservoirs and under current economic conditions, operating methods, and government regulations. Probable Reserves - Probable reserves are defined as those unproved reserves which analysis of geological and engineering data suggests are more likely than not to be recoverable. Contingent Resources – Contingent resources are defined as those quantities of petroleum which are estimated, on a given date, to be potentially recoverable from known accumulations, but which are not currently considered to be commercially recoverable. The reasons for non commerciality could be economic including market availability, political, environmental, or technological.
Debt Profile : Control Cost & Manage Risk
Managed debt according to financial risk and policy
Debt Portfolio Unit : MMTHB
Consolidated
PTT Only : Cost of debts : % fixed-rate : Avg. debt life
~ 4.63 % ~ 81.91 % ~ 8.32 years
: Cost of debts : % fixed-rate : Avg. debt life
USD THB
288,171 100,069
125,972
(35%)
(41%)
188,102
181,399
(65%)
31 Dec 12
467,963
462,365
259,665
254,931
(49%)
(55%)
(55%)
221,201
208,298
207,434
436,708
307,371
(59%)
31 Dec 13
305,600
~ 4.42 % ~ 76.97 % ~ 7.57 years
215,507
124,708 (41%)
180,892 (59%)
31 Mar 14
(51%)
31 Dec 12
(45%)
31 Dec 13
(45%)
31 Mar 14
Note : Data as of 31 Mar 14 (THB/USD = 32.5814 THB/JPY = 0.31838) Excluding liabilities from finance leases; Cost of debts includes withholding tax.
39
PTT Group Performance : Q1/14 (YoY) Overview
Performance
Q2/14 Outlook
Performance 100%
% share
Equity Method % PTT
Unit : MMTHB
Q1/13
Q1/14
YoY
Q1/13
Q1/14
PTT Net operating Income
12,308
13,739
12%
12,308
13,739
12%
E&P
20,246
12,435
-39%
12,602
7,450
-41%
13,303
7,924
-40%
6,569
3,516
-46%
12,075
6,296
-48%
48.89%
5,852
2,722
-53%
1,228
1,628
33%
40-50%
717
794
11%
6,787
3,269
-52%
3,269
1,509
-54%
3,227
2,534
-21%
49.10%
1,258
1,303
4%
- IRPC
153
344
n.m.
38.51%
949
125
-87%
- SPRC
1,210
-1,174
n.m.
36.00%
452
-335
n.m.
- BCP
2,197
1,565
-29%
27.22%
610
416
-32%
-740
-589
20%
100%
-799
-555
31%
1,019
1,429
40% 50-100%
1,100
1,018
-7%
987
544
20-30%
280
148
-47%
520
834
60% 33-100%
475
623
31%
Shared of Net Income from Affiliates
42,122
25,846
-39%
23,496
13,709
-42%
PTT Conso. Net Income
54,430
39,585
-27%
35,804
27,448
-23%
- PTTEP
Petro. Business - PTTGC - HMC/PPCL/PTTPL/PTTPM/PTTAC/ PTTES/ PTTME/PTTMCC/PMMA
Refining - TOP
65.29%
YoY
Others Business Inter
- PTTER, PTTGE
Gas
-PTTNGD/ TTM(T)/ TTM (M)/ PTTLNG
Utilities
-GPSC/ TP/ DCAP/ CHPP/ BIP/ BIC/ NNEG
Oil & Oth. - PTTT/SBECL/THAPPLINE/PTTRB/Others
-45%
40
Statements of Consolidated Cash Flows Overview
Performance
Q2/14 Outlook Investing
2013 -95,364
Q1/2014 -27,757
27,448
CAPEX(PP&E, Intangible asset)
-114,457
-28,504
-25,592
11,426
Investment (Sub. &Affiliates)
-11,256
-
Income Tax
-45,822
-2,931
Dividend/Interest Received
18,488
583
Non-Cash Adjustment
126,342
32,925
Others
11,861
164
15,747
3,978
2013 165,327
Q1/2014 72,846
94,652
Changes in assets & liabilities
Operating Net Income
Interest-net
Financing Free Cash flow 69,963
45,089
-55,790
-6,071
Repayment Loans
-76,726
-3,100
Interest paid
-20,089
-4,463
Dividend paid
-46,367
-18
280
-
87,112
1,510
Received from share issue Received from loans/Bonds Adjustment 6,586
Beginning Cash and Cash Equivalents 136,924
157,683
-973
Cash In/(Out) 20,759
38,045
Ending Cash & Cash Equivalents
157,683
195,728
41
Statements of Cash Flows: Q1/2014 & FY2013 (PTT Only) Operating Net Income Changes in assets & liabilities Income Tax Non-Cash Adjustment Interest - net
2013 42,592
Q1/2014 24,133
63,988
21,586
-12,063
5,269
-2,276
-741
-15,199
-3,911
8,142
1,930
2013 16,981
Q1/2014 -2,629
-22,912
-6,557
Investment (Sub. &Affiliates)
-4,281
-7
Dividend/Interest Received
37,880
803
6,294
3,132
Investing CAPEX (PP&E, Intangible asset)
Others
Financing Free Cash flow 59,573
21,504
-43,214
-2,459
Repayment Loans
-55,754
-644
Interest paid
-13,472
-2,766
Dividend paid
-37,116
-4
-
-
63,128
955
Received from share issue Received from loans/Bonds Adjustment -74
Beginning Cash and Cash Equivalents 47,642
63,927
-1
Ending Cash & Cash Equivalents
Cash In/(Out) 16,285
19,044
63,927 42
82,971
42
Data as of 31 Mar 2014
E&P and Gas Business Group Subsidiaries Consolidate PTT Exploration & Production Plc. PTTEP 65.29% PTT Natural Gas Distribution Co., Ltd. PTTNGD 58.00% PTT LNG Co., Ltd. PTTLNG 100.00% Joint Ventures
Proportionate 50.00% 50.00% 35.00%
Trans Thai-Malaysia (Thailand) Co., Ltd. TTM (T) Trans Thai-Malaysia (Malaysia) Sdn. Bhd. TTM (M) District Cooling System and Power Plant DCAP
Associates Thai Oil Power Co., Ltd. Global Power Synergy Co., Ltd Others Ratchaburi Power Co., Ltd.
TP GPSC RPCL
Equity 26.00% 30.10% Cost 15.00%
Subsidiaries PTT (Cambodia) Co., Ltd. Subic Bay Energy Co., Ltd. PTT Retail Business Co., Ltd. Thai Lube Blending Co., Ltd. PTT Tank Terminal Co., Ltd. PTT Oil Myanmar Co., Ltd.
Consolidate PTTCL 100.00% SBECL 100.00% PTTRB 100.00% TLBC* 48.95% PTTTANK 100.00% PTTOM 100.00% Equity 40.00% 36.44% 35.00%
Others Cost PetroAsia (Maoming) Co., Ltd. PA(Maoming) 20.00% PetroAsia (Sanshui) Co., Ltd. PA(Sanshui) 25.00% Intoplane Services Co., Ltd. IPS 16.67% Fuel Pipeline Transportation Co., Ltd.FPT 0.00024%
International Trading Business Group PTTT
Petrochemical Subsidiaries PTT Polymer Marketing Co., Ltd. PTT Polymer Logistics Co., Ltd. PTT PMMA Co., Ltd.
Consolidate PTTPM 50.00% PTTPL 100.00% PTTPMMA 100.00%
Associates PTT Global Chemical Plc. PTT Maintenance and Engineering
Associates Keloil-PTT LPG Sdn. Bhd. KPL Thai Petroleum Pipeline Co., Ltd.THAPPLINE PetroAsia (Thailand) Co., Ltd. PA(Thailand)
Others Bangkok Aviation Fuel Services Plc. BAFS
Subsidiaries PTT International Trading Pte.
Petrochemicals & Refining Business Group
Oil Business Group
Fair Value 7.06%
PTT Energy Solutions Co., Ltd.
Equity PTTGC 48.89% PTTME 40.00% PTTES 40.00%
Joint Ventures HMC Polymers Co., Ltd. PTT Asahi Chemical Co., Ltd. PTT MCC Biochem Co., Ltd.
Proportionate HMC 41.44% PTTAC 48.50% PTTMCC 50.00%
Refining Associates Thai Oil Plc. IRPC Plc. Star Petroleum Refining Co., Ltd. Bangchak Petroleum Plc.
TOP IRPC SPRC BCP
Equity 49.10% 38.51% 36.00% 27.22%
International Investment Subsidiaries PTT Energy Resources Co., Ltd. PTT Green Energy Pte. Ltd
Consolidate 100.00%
PTTER PTTGE
Consolidate 100.00% 100.00%
Others Subsidiaries Consolidate Energy Complex Co., Ltd. EnCo 50.00% Business Service Alliance Co., Ltd. BSA * 25.00% PTT Regional Treasury Center Pte. Ltd. PTTRTC 100.00% Remark :
Associates PTT ICT Solutions Co., Ltd.
PTTICT
Equity 20.00%
Others Dhipaya Insurance Plc.
* Subsidiaries that PTT holds less than 50% but being consolidated because PTT has the power to control the financial and operating policies.
TIP
Fair Value 13.33%
43
Natural Gas Price Structure : Jan-Mar 2014
Gas prices are mostly agreed under long-term contracts and volatility pass-through to ensure stable returns.
Customers1
Sales Price Structure Gas Pool Price
+
Supply Margins
+
Pipeline Tariffs
Power Producers 58% : EGAT
28%
: IPP
14%
: SPP
16%
GSP
21%
1.75% Average Purchased Gas Price
1.75%
21.9 Bt/MMBtu
9.33% Charged at the same price structure of power producers
Petrochemicals Feedstocks Ethane, Propane, LPG
Profit-sharing mechanism based on market prices of petrochemicals
NGL
Reference to Naphtha market price
Local Cooking Gas
Capped at 333 USD/ton
Export Cooking Gas
Reference to Saudi Aramco’s contract price
Industry NGV
14% 7%
Charged at prices comparable to fuel oil Capped at 10.5 Baht/Kg
• Contract periods are ~ 25-30 years or until depletion of gas fields or the expiration of concessions 1 As at Apr, 2014
44
Natural Gas : Strong and Increasing Demand over Long Term
Natural gas is a fuel of choice for power producers and transportation industry
Gas demand forecast (CAGR during 2013-2030) : Total : Power : GSP : Industry : NGV
MMscfd
~ 2% ~ 3% ~ -1% ~ 2% ~ 3%
6,462 8%
NGV
13%
Industry 6% 14%
2,635
12%
GSP
21%
8% 14% 59%
Power
67%
78%
Source : PTT
45
Thailand’s Projected Energy Demand
Commercial Primary Energy Consumption KBD
3,728
4000
3,306
3500
3% Hydro/Import13% 2% Renewable 14% 12% Coal/Lignite 13%
2,321
17%
19%
39%
35%
28%
28%
Source : EPPO/ PDP 2010 Revised 3 (June 2012)/ PTT analysis as of 27 Mar 2014
2029
202
202
2026
2025
2023
29%
Oil
2022
2013
2012
32% 2011
2010
2009
200
200
2006
2005
2004
2003
32%
2021
500
2020
41%
38%
13%
41%
2019
1000
Natural Gas
2016
1500
201
2% 13% 15%
2015
2000
201
1,917
2014
2500
2024
3000
0
3% 13%
2,862
1% Nuclear 4%
46
Gas Business Generates Stable Returns Overview
Gas transmission pipeline capacity
Sole owner and operator of entire gas transmission pipelines in Thailand (3,678 km), a regulated business • IRROE ranges between
Phu Hom
12.5% - 18% for transmission pipeline investment Supply & marketing of natural gas provides fixed margin with long-term contracts of 25-30 years
Thailand Yadana
Ban I Tong The Luang
Nam Phong
Nakhon Ratchasima
Kaong Khoi
Wang Noi NBK
Yetagun
6 Gas Separation Plants; Total production 6.7 MTA; are on petrochemical market price-linked profit sharing basis
Nakhon Sawan
Ratchaburi SBK
Samut Prakan ESB
Bang Pakong
Chon Buri
Rayong
Andaman Sea
Benchamas Tantawan Platong Chevron–Additional Arthit–FPSO Erawan Arthit
Khanom
Songkhla Sadao
Pailin
Bongkot South Bongkot
Natural gas fields Thai-Malaysia (JDA)
Power plants Gas separation plant 1,2,3,5,6 in Rayong Gas separation unit 4 in Nakhon Si Thammarat Existing pipeline Future pipeline
47