BUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES IN UGANDA FACT PACK 2016 Business Sweden in Nairobi

UGANDA BRIEF FACTS BASIC FACTS

MAP OF UGANDA

 Population:

38,8 million (2014)

 Area:

241,038 sq. km

 Capital:

Kampala

 Languages:

English (official), numerous indigenous languages

SOUTH SUDAN

UGANDA

 Currency:

Uganda Shilling (UGX)

 GDP:

USD 26,3 billion (2014)

 GDP growth:

4,5% (2013)

RW

 Inflation:

4,3% (2014)

BUR

 Exports:

USD 2,4 billion (2013)

 Imports:

USD 5,8 billion (2013)

 Swedish Export:

SEK 109 million (2014)

 Swedish Import:

SEK 31 million (2014)

KENYA Kampala

DR CONGO

TANZANIA

SOURCES: WORLD BANK, UN COMTRADE, NATIONAL BOARD OF TRADE – KOMMERSKOLLEGIUM BUSINESS SWEDEN

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POLITICAL AND ECONOMICAL EVENTS  Idi Amin orders approx. 60,000 Asians who are not  Milton Obote citizens to leave the toppled in coup led by Army chief country Idi Amin

1962

1971

1972

 Treaty Establishing the East African Community (EAC) entered into force

1979

1986

 Commercial oil reserves discovered estimated at 6,5 billion barrels

2000

2006

2009

 Uganda expects to be a middle income economy

2014

2040

 Uganda gets  Idi Amin declares  National Resistance Army independence himself president rebels take Kampala and  GDP expands by from United for life and claims install Yoweri Museveni as  Discovery of 13% after the state Kingdom parts of Kenya president rebased its additional  Uganda engages in calculations to commercially border clashes with incorporate new viable deposits Tanzania sectors in the of 2.5 billion  Tanzania invades Uganda leading economy barrels to Idi Amin’s fall from power THE DISCOVERY OF LARGE DEPOSITS OF OIL IS EXPECTED TO BOLSTER UGANDA GROWTH TO MIDDLE INCOME STATUS SOURCES: BUSINESS SWEDEN ANALYSIS, UGANDA BUREAU OF STATISTICS, EAST AFRICA COMMUNITY SECRETARIAT, BBC BUSINESS SWEDEN

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UGANDA AIMS TO BE A MIDDLE-INCOME ECONOMY BY 2040  Uganda has developed a long term perspective development plan that aims to change the country from a predominantly low income to a competitive upper middle income country by year 2040  The plan comprises of three main approaches

Business Approach

Quasi-market Approach

Socioeconomic transformation Approach

 Continuous institutional restructuring will be implemented and the country will adopt new public management techniques  Implementation of reforms such as deregulation of bureaucratic government rules and procedures enabling efficient and effective service delivery while harnessing synergies  Pursuit by government to investment in strategic areas and private sector market driven actions  Promotion and encouragement of public-private partnerships and investments in strategic areas and areas of national interest  Investments in better urban systems that enhance productivity, liveability and sustainability  Strengthen urban infrastructure and public service facilities to enable the government to provide better services such as basic physical infrastructure, housing and social amenities

THE MULTI-DIMENSIONAL APPROACH AIMS TO TRANSFORM THE COUNTRY TO A MODERN AND PROSPEROUS SOCIETY SOURCE: UGANDA VISION 2040 BUSINESS SWEDEN

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UGANDA’S SERVICE SECTOR DOMINATES ITS ECONOMY CONTRIBUTION TO GDP BY SECTOR (2013)

ICT 7%

Agriculture 22% Services 45%

Industry 26%

CHARACTERISTICS  The services sector that dominates Uganda’s GDP comprises of activities such as wholesale and retail trade, tourism, financial intermediation and financial services, public administration, education, and health and other personal & community services  The industry sector is made up of the manufacturing, mining, electricity & water supply and construction sectors. The sector attributes its contribution to the economy through the recovery of manufacturing activities as well as a strong recovery in electricity supply  The agricultural sector contribution is through activities including cash crops, food crops, agricultural support activities, livestock, forestry and fishing. Increased food crop activities is due to favourable weather conditions

 The ICT sector in Uganda has chiefly been driven by the unprecedented expansion of mobile telephony and mobile broadband services with mobile internet connectivity standing at 3.6 million by the end of 2013 compared to 2.7 million in 2012 SOURCES: BUSINESS SWEDEN ANALYSIS; UGANDA BUREAU OF STATISTICS, UGANDA COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION (UCC) BUSINESS SWEDEN

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UGANDA’S ECONOMY IS ANTICIPATED TO GROW AT AN AVERAGE RATE OF 6.7% UNTIL YEAR 2017 MAIN DRIVERS OF THE ECONOMY  Uganda's medium-term economic outlook is expected to be significantly boosted by the discovery of commercially viable oil wells on Lake Albert with the government and involved oil companies now expecting initial production during 2017–18

NOMINAL GDP 2012-2017E USD billion

31,9 29,9 23,7

24,7

26,3

28

 Strong regional demand, infrastructure investment, and regulatory integration within the East African Community support economic growth in which Uganda stands to benefit in the medium term  The country’s economic growth is expected to continue for the long term as investment in the infrastructure and oil sectors, largely foreign-financed, accelerates and lower inflation shoots private consumption growth

2012

2013

2014

2015e

2016e

2017e

CAGR* SOURCES: BUSINESS SWEDEN ANALYSIS, WORLD BANK COUNTRY PAGE UGANDA AND WORLD BANK DATA GDP TABLE, NEW VISION, IHS Inc. BUSINESS SWEDEN

 Foreign-financed construction of the Karuma and Isimba hydropower plants and the Mombasa-Kampala standard gauge railway are expected to support an acceleration of construction sector growth, with oil sector investments expected to intensify towards the next several years

* COMPOUND ANNUAL GROWTH RATE 12 FEBRUARY, 2016

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EXPORTS BETWEEN UGANDA AND SWEDEN HAD A SIGNIFICANT PEAK IN 2011 BUT HAVE SINCE DECLINED SWEDISH EXPORTS TO UGANDA, 2010-2014 USD million

SWEDISH IMPORTS FROM UGANDA, 2010-2014 USD million

109,4 6,5

6,8

5,4 4,4

62,5

2010

3,5

2011

25,3

22,6

2012

2013

15,8 2014

2010

SWEDISH EXPORTS TO UGANDA, 2014 Chemicals & related products 7% Manufactured goods 7% Miscellaneous manufactured articles 7% SOURCE: UN COMTRADE BUSINESS SWEDEN

2011

2012

2013

2014

SWEDISH IMPORTS FROM UGANDA, 2014 Other 1%

Miscellaneous manufactured goods 2%

Machinery & transport equipment 78% Food & live animals* 98%

* MAINLY COFFEE, TEA, FRUITS AND CUT FLOWERS 12 FEBRUARY, 2016

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LARGE ONGOING INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS ARE AN INTEGRAL PART OF UGANDA’S GROWTH PLANS

Airports Upgrade and Development 2014 – TBD The USD 386 million project to upgrade the Entebbe International Airport in Entebbe and develop regional airports with the latter expected to improve upcountry infrastructure and boost tourism. The overall vision is to make the Ugandan aviation industry the safest, most efficient and affordable in Africa and beyond

Gulu

Malaba

Kampala

Oil Refinery Project 2018 – 2020 The discovery of commercially viable oil reserves in the country is intended to initially increase electricity supply. When completed in 2020, the USD 3 billion oil refinery is expected to have a capacity of 60,000 barrels a day. The facility will be located in the Western part of the country, not far from Lake Albert

Kasese Bus Rapid Transit 2014 – TBD Uganda’s BRT project which is part of a larger mass rapid transit project is being implement in the greater Kampala metropolitan area The project’s estimated budget is USD~650 million

Standard Gauge Railway 2013 – 2017 Construction has already started in Mombasa, Kenya and once complete, the new line will connect Mombasa to Malaba, then onward to Kampala then Kigali. The construction that will join Kampala through Malaba to Nimule in South Sudan is at an estimated cost of USD 3.3 billion

SOURCES: BUSINESS SWEDEN ANALYSIS, UGANDA CIVIL AVIATION AUTHORITY, NEW VISION, UGANDA MINISTRY OF ENERGY & MINERAL DEVELOPMENT BUSINESS SWEDEN

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BUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES FOR SWEDISH COMPANIES ARE IN SEVERAL VIBRANT SECTORS Energy  Power generation stations to increase electricity supply  Oil, natural gas and petroleum exploration in other potential regions of the country  Rural Electrification projects  Generation of energy using renewable sources and solar power  Construction of petroleum pipeline and petroleum product terminals

Real Estate  Construction of office buildings  Building shopping malls and complexes  Construction of residential villas, apartment complexes and housing estates  Construction of hotels, resorts and lodges

Infrastructure  Expansion and upgrade of the International airport and development of regional airports countrywide  Supply of buses, operation and maintenance of fleet, stations and terminals  Consultancy and service providers for BRT

Business with the United Nations

ICT  Establishment of information and communication infrastructure and broadband services  Business Process Outsourcing and Information Technology Virtual Zones (ITVZ)  Software development  ICT business services incubation and training facilities  Setting up of Internet Service Provider (ISP) facilities in other parts of Uganda

 The UN in Africa is procuring goods and services worth 28 billion SEK annually  One of UN’s two main procurement hubs in Africa is located in Entebbe Large interest for Swedish solutions in ICT, energy and environmental technology, healthcare, prefabricated shelter solutions, civil security and water and sanitation

SOURCES: BUSINESS SWEDEN ANALYSIS, UGANDA INVESTMENT AUTHORITY, UGANDA CHAMBER OF COMMERCE & INDUSTRY BUSINESS SWEDEN

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CONTACT US BUSINESS SWEDEN IN KENYA Business Sweden Eden Square, 3rd floor, off Westlands road Box 13799, 00800 Nairobi T +254 20 3749760 [email protected] www.business-sweden.se/kenya