Big world trends and the opportunities these create for ICT
Big world trends and the opportunities these create for ICT Hamish McRae
• • •
Five great medium-term global shifts and … … their implications for t...
Big world trends and the opportunities these create for ICT Hamish McRae
• • •
Five great medium-term global shifts and … … their implications for the world of finance Three big questions about the future
The Future? The Future?
… All futures have roots in the past
The presentation's structure
• • • • •
Five great medium-term global shifts … … and how each might affect ICT applications Thoughts on the future of ICT applications … … in the six areas of the foresight project … … and some big questions about human needs
Five great global trends
• • • • •
Demography – how do we turn this to advantage? The environment – we all need to be greener Globalisation – the historic shift of power to Asia Technology – towards a global level playing field Government – will spend less and regulate more
Ageing societies are different
• • • • • •
The developed world is getting older … … but at different rates Immigration does help – but only at the margin For Europe this is not just fixing pensions … … but also adapting to different types of work … … lifestyles, values and attitudes
What this might mean for ICT
• • • • • • •
The European economy faces headwinds … … and ICT is one of the few weapons we have to cope Mechanical implications for using older workers … … part-timers, students and the unwaged Implications beyond the workplace But stress between old people and young technologies So ICT should be an invisible helping hand
It’s good to be green
• • • • • •
We can start to glimpse the end of the oil era … … recent price falls don't change the big trends Uncertain energy supplies, coupled with … … huge demand from the US, China and India The quest for mobility however will continue … … and concerns about climate change will rise
Is world oil production about to peak?
What this might mean for ICT
• • • • •
A world where resources are no longer abundant … … substitutes technology for energy Obvious applications: driving up efficiency Less obvious: the push to "better", not "more" What follows the Western consumer economic model?
Globalisation is our friend
• • • • • •
The two “new” giants: China and India China lowest cost manufacturer in the world India lowest cost service provider Russia is quite different! So how can we justify European wages? Answer: intellect, culture and education
What this might mean for ICT
• • • • • •
The greatest shift of economic power for 150 years … … a shift in part driven by the new technologies Obvious applications in outsourcing … … but that is a hard way to earn a decent living So how do you use ICT to improve competitiveness? Answer: the only room is at the top of the market
ICT: application is the key
• • • • •
It is a global level playing field … … and there is no "fringe" anymore Europe has no advantage over Asia So what can we do better than others? Answer: culturally sensitive applications
What this might mean for ICT
• • • • • •
The new technologies are universally available … … so application matters more than development … … but you need master technology The need to deploy European intelligence and creativity Estonia has some competitive advantages … … but there is no magic wand, just attention to detail
Government in the 21st century
• • • • • •
There are some things only governments can do But huge financial pressures as demands rise … … and revenues of most governments are cut away Government becomes an enabler, nudging society … … with light but effective regulation … … towards greater personal responsibility
What this might mean for ICT
• • • • • •
We are seeing a resurgence of the authority of the state But this is a blip on the path to "new government" "New government" is not just about lower taxes … … but about being more responsive to needs Estonia has special opportunities for using ICT E.g. How do you best connect with the diaspora?
The six foresight areas
• • • • • •
Education Health care Industry Energy Financial services ICT security
New education … He could be wireless HeG7could be OUTPUT wireless INDUSTRIAL 102 G 7 INDUST RIAL OUT P UT
100
G 7 INDUST RIAL OUT P UT
102
PEAK MONTH = 100
96 94 92
100
102
98
100
96
98
PEAK MONTH = 100
PEAK MONTH = 100
98
94
96
92
94
90
92
88
90
86
88 -3
90
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3
6
9
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0
3
6
12
86
88
36
39
42
45
48
MO N TH S F RO M CYCL E PE AK 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 FE B 08 MAY 74 FE B 80 D EC 0 0 MO N TH S F RO M CYCL E PE AK
15
18
36
39
42
45
FE B 08
21
24
MAY 74
27
30
33
FE B 80
48
D EC 0 0
86 -3
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
24
27
30
33
36
MONTHS FROM CYCLE PEAK FEB 08
MAY 74
FEB 80
DEC 00
39
42
45
48
… old education?
G7 INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT 102 100
PEAK MONTH = 100
98 96 94 92 90 88 86 -3
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
24
27
30
33
36
MONTHS FROM CYCLE PEAK FEB 08
MAY 74
FEB 80
DEC 00
39
42
45
48
Education - lighting a fire
• • • • • •
Education becomes a two way street … … demand-driven as much as supply-driven All ages - not one shot A good university is a club … … and an industry … … and a magnet for economic success
Old health care …
G7 INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT 102 100
PEAK MONTH = 100
98 96 94 92 90 88 86 -3
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
24
27
30
33
36
MONTHS FROM CYCLE PEAK FEB 08
MAY 74
FEB 80
DEC 00
39
42
45
48
… new health care?
G7 INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT 102 100
PEAK MONTH = 100
98 96 94 92 90 88 86 -3
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
24
27
30
33
36
MONTHS FROM CYCLE PEAK FEB 08
MAY 74
FEB 80
DEC 00
39
42
45
48
Health - physician heal thyself
• • • •
How to you foster a healthier society? ICT enables people to control their own health So how do you persuade them to do so? Information. Education. Persuasion.
Old industry …
G7 INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT 102 100
PEAK MONTH = 100
98 96 94 92 90 88 86 -3
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
24
27
30
33
36
MONTHS FROM CYCLE PEAK FEB 08
MAY 74
FEB 80
DEC 00
39
42
45
48
… new industry?
G7 INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT 102 100
PEAK MONTH = 100
98 96 94 92 90 88 86 -3
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
24
27
30
33
36
MONTHS FROM CYCLE PEAK FEB 08
MAY 74
FEB 80
DEC 00
39
42
45
48
Industry - the march to services
• • • • • •
Industry in Europe will be high-tech or crafts … … as mass manufacturing goes to Asia So ICT has to support niches … … support exportable services … … foster start-ups … … and use the workforce it has got
Old energy …
G7 INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT 102 100
PEAK MONTH = 100
98 96 94 92 90 88 86 -3
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
24
27
30
33
36
MONTHS FROM CYCLE PEAK FEB 08
MAY 74
FEB 80
DEC 00
39
42
45
48
… new energy?
G7 INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT 102 100
PEAK MONTH = 100
98 96 94 92 90 88 86 -3
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
24
27
30
33
36
MONTHS FROM CYCLE PEAK FEB 08
MAY 74
FEB 80
DEC 00
39
42
45
48
Energy - efficiency is the key
• • • • •
Efficiency in energy use … … in energy education … … and in lifestyles So do the standard applications but … … remember life has to be fun!
Old finance …
G7 INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT 102 100
PEAK MONTH = 100
98 96 94 92 90 88 86 -3
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
24
27
30
33
36
MONTHS FROM CYCLE PEAK FEB 08
MAY 74
FEB 80
DEC 00
39
42
45
48
… new finance?
G7 INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT 102 100
PEAK MONTH = 100
98 96 94 92 90 88 86 -3
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
24
27
30
33
36
MONTHS FROM CYCLE PEAK FEB 08
MAY 74
FEB 80
DEC 00
39
42
45
48
Finance - under huge pressure
• • • •
The global supply of services will shrink … … and trust is very low But underlying demand will rise So how does ICT rebuild trust and meet demand?
Old ICT security …
G7 INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT 102 100
PEAK MONTH = 100
98 96 94 92 90 88 86 -3
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
24
27
30
33
36
MONTHS FROM CYCLE PEAK FEB 08
MAY 74
FEB 80
DEC 00
39
42
45
48
… new ICT security?
G7 INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT 102 100
PEAK MONTH = 100
98 96 94 92 90 88 86 -3
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
24
27
30
33
36
MONTHS FROM CYCLE PEAK FEB 08
MAY 74
FEB 80
DEC 00
39
42
45
48
ICT security - the global threat
• • • •
The world is at war … … and will continue to be for a generation How do we get out of the trenches? Don't get into them in the first place
We need to be self-critical … Lennart Meri
I am not always happy with the compliments Estonia has received
… but also self-confident … Lennart Meri
The country and society is strong enough to tell the truth with a straight back
