Asiamoney's 2013 Best Domestic Equity House
2014 Asiamoney’s Finance 2013 Asia's Best Best Domestic Equity House Equity House
Beacon
Alpha Southeast Asia 2014 Best Research Call FMCG Sector
2015 Institutional Investors Highest Ranked Local Research House
2015 Global Banking & Finance Review Best Research House
12 February 2016
IDX: 4,776 (+0.9%) Turnover: IDR3.6tn (+8.9%) Foreign Net SELL IDR133.2bn (from Net BUY IDR337.4bn)
Indonesia Morning Brief
INDICES
CORPORATE FLASH Sri Rejeki Isman (SRIL IJ): Too cheap to ignore Analyst: Renaldy Effendy Limited support from garment in 2016F with … … margin enhancement to stem from lower raw materials prices Lower earnings on expansion delays
ECONOMIC FLASH Stimulus Package no.10: Deregulation = Positive over medium term Analyst: Fakhrul Fulvian & Sarah Hutapea Opens foreign investment for 35 business sectors Excludes 83 businesses from recommendation Opens 20 business sectors for foreigners with certain stock ownership
TODAY’S NEWS POLITICS Political surprise move: Democrats (SBY) turn on KPK law revision ECONOMICS Govt: Paying tax payable necessary for tax amnesty program RI, Thailand vow to boost trade after 3-year slow decline Moody’s: Indonesia’s growth to stabilize near current levels BKPM: Investment could reach IDR3,500tn in 2021 BOURSE Lippo plans to list mataharimall.com MRA Group to IPO in 2018 INDUSTRY Automotive: January unofficial retail sales: 4W: +1% y-y; 2W: -17%
Asia Last Chg% Hang Seng (HK) 18,545.8 (3.8) IDX (Indonesia) 4,775.9 0.9 KLCI (Mal.) 1,644.0 (0.0) KOSPI (Korea) 1,861.5 (2.9) Nikkei (Japan) 15,713.4 (2.3) PCOMP (Phil.) 6,663.4 0.4 SENSEX (India) 23,191.1 (2.4) SET (Thailand) 1,290.4 (1.1) SHCOMP (China) 2,763.5 (0.6) SHENZHEN (China) 1,750.7 (1.1) STI (Singapore) 2,542.1 (1.5) TWSE (Taiwan) 8,063.0 (0.8) VNI (Vietnam) 544.8 0.5 Europe, USA and Ems CAC 40 (France) 3,896.7 (4.1) DAX (Germany) 8,752.9 (2.9) Dow Jones (USA) 15,660.2 (1.6) FTSE 100 (UK) 5,537.0 (2.4) IBOV (Brazil) 39,318.3 (2.6) MEXBOL (Mexico) 42,359.3 (0.4) NGSEINDX (Nigeria) 24,664.9 2.2 Nasdaq (USA) 4,266.8 (0.4) RTSI (Russia) 671.3 (3.6) S&P 500 (USA) 1,829.1 (1.2) XU100 (Turkey) 70,941.7 (0.9)
ytd % (15.4) 4.0 (2.9) (5.1) (17.4) (4.2) (11.2) 0.2 (21.9) (24.2) (11.8) (3.3) (5.9)
y-y % (24.9) (10.5) (8.6) (4.8) (11.0) (13.3) (18.7) (19.6) (10.2) 17.1 (26.2) (15.3) (5.1)
(16.0) (18.5) (10.1) (11.3) (9.3) (1.4) (13.9) (14.8) (11.3) (10.5) (1.1)
(16.7) (18.6) (12.3) (18.8) (18.5) 1.0 (14.1) (11.1) (19.3) (11.6) (15.0)
Source: Bloomberg
ETF, ADR & COMMODITIES
Last Chg% ytd % y-y % EEM US (USD) 28.8 (1.7) (10.5) (26.8) EIDO US (USD) 22.6 1.2 8.4 (15.9) y-y TLK US (IDR) 3,428 0.6 14.7 15.0 Honda recalls 367k cars due to airbag problems Como Index (USD) 155.0 (0.9) (12.0) (30.2) BI: Flat primary residential prices in 4Q15 Coal (USD/t) 50.7 (0.6) 0.1 (25.6) 135.8 0.0 1.5 (6.3) FSA to appoint 19 banks to disburse subsidized micro loans (KUR) in Corn (USD/mtn) Coffee (USD/t) 2,438.3 (0.1) (5.8) (23.1) 2016 Copper (USD/t) 4,474.0 (0.7) (4.8) (20.8) ESDM has not set 2016 coal production target Cotton (USD/t) 1,287.9 (0.8) (7.7) (5.8) Media - Nielsen: 2015 ad spend +7% y-y; TV ad spend +12% y-y CPO Rott (USD/t) 647.5 0.8 2.0 (1.9) Gold demand +4% y-y in 4Q15, but -0.3% y-y in 2015 Gold (USD/oz.) 1,239.6 3.4 16.8 1.4 Iron ore (USD/mtn) 41.9 0.0 (3.5) (34.3) CORPORATE Milk (USD/cwt) 14.1 0.6 (0.9) (13.9) JSMR 4Q15 results: Above our and consensus on lower opex Nickel (USD/t) 7,710.0 (4.1) (11.0) (47.6) ADHI: 1M16 new contracts reached IDR1.1tn Oil Brent (USD/barrel) 30.1 (2.5) (19.4) (45.0) SMCB completes IDR2.1tn merger with Lafarge Indonesia Rice (IDR/kg) 4,914.0 0.0 (2.8) 4.5 BSDE to launch 2 clusters in February 2016 Rubber (USD/t) 104.9 (1.6) (7.7) (26.6) Silver (USD/oz) 15.7 2.5 13.2 (7.0) SSIA sets IDR1.3tn for industrial land expansion Soybean oil (USD/t) 696.4 1.9 3.4 (0.5) Steel (USD/t) 305.6 0.0 0.8 (22.6) ECONOMIC INDICATORS MARKET DATA Sugar (USD/t) 294.1 (0.1) (10.7) (9.6) 15,600.0 (1.6) 6.8 (12.5) 15F 16F 17F 15F 16F 17F Tins (USD/t) Wheat (USD/t) 168.4 (0.7) (2.5) (17.5) Cur acc bal (%GDP) (2.0) (2.3) (2.3) Op.prof.gwt.(%) (2.3) 11.4 12.7 Source: Bloomberg, CEIC Fiscal bal (%GDP) (2.7) (2.7) (2.5) EPS growth (%) (7.5) 13.6 14.3 CURRENCIES & RATES GDP growth (%y-y) 4.7 5.1 5.2 P/E (x) 19.9 17.3 15.2 Last Prev. Ytd % y-y % Private spending (%) 5.0 5.0 5.1 PEG (x) (3.9) 1.2 1.1 AUD/1USD 0.713 0.711 2.2 8.5 Investment (%y-y) 3.6 5.0 6.6 EV/EBITDA (x) 13.8 12.7 11.1 EUR/1USD 1.132 1.128 (4.0) 0.8 Total exports (%y-y) 0.3 2.4 1.0 P/BV (x) 9.9 8.7 7.7 IDR/1USD 13,465 13,463 2.4 (5.5) Total imports (%y-y) (4.1) 2.4 3.3 P/BV exc. 3.5 3.1 2.7 JPY/1USD 112.370 113.34 7.0 6.0 0 1.390 1.391 2.1 (2.4) Inflation (%y-y) 2.9 4.5 5.0 Div. Yield (%) 2.0 2.2 2.5 SGD/1USD 5.40 5.40 (2.2) (0.4) IDR/USD 13,788 14,500 14,000 Net gearing (%) 20.8 18.9 16.3 JIBOR (%) BI rate (%) 7.25 7.25 (0.3) (0.5) BI rate (% p.a.) 7.50 6.75 6.25 ROAE (%) 31.7 29.1 29.1 TD – 1 month (%) 7.06 7.02 (0.0) (0.3) Brent Oil (Usd/bbl) 52.5 30.0 60.0 ROAA (%) 12.2 11.9 12.4 CDS (bps) 265.62 251.49 54.4 71.4 FX reserve (USDb) 105.9 105.0 110.0 ROIC (%) 26.6 26.6 26.6 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bahana estimates
Source: Bahana estimates
Disclosure: Bahana Securities does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
Asiamoney's 2013 Best Domestic Equity House
2014 Finance Asia's Best Equity House
Alpha Southeast Asia 2014 Best Research Call FMCG Sector
2015 Institutional Investors Highest Ranked Local Research House
2015 Global Banking & Finance Review Best Research House
POLITICS Political surprise move: Democrats (SBY) turn on KPK law revision The House of Representatives on Thursday canceled a plenary session at which the deliberation of a revision to the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) law was set to begin after the Democratic Party joined the Gerindra Party in opposing the revision. All members of the legislation body, except those from Gerindra, agreed to the 12 points of an amendment to Law No. 30/2002 on the KPK on Monday, but the Democratic Party retracted its agreement after the party’s chairperson, former President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY), ordered the party’s lawmakers to oppose the revision. (The Jakarta Post). Bahana comment: Based on many political analysts on the ground, this amendment will weaken the power of the KPK, suggesting that corruption could be on the way up going forward. According to a recent survey, 54% of respondents believe that this amendment would weaken the KPK. Note that political observers have been encouraging President Jokowi to turn against this KPK law revision, warning that the passing of this law could result in lower public approval rating.
ECONOMICS Govt: Paying tax payable necessary for tax amnesty program Even though the tax amnesty bill is still being discussion, the government has indicated that there could be some strict requirements in order to join the tax amnesty program including obligation to settle tax payables, as stated in the article no. 7 in the draft of the bill. MoF Bambang Brodjonegoro also stated that tax payers would need to be first declared “clean and clear”, prior to joining the tax amnesty program. (Kontan) RI, Thailand vow to boost trade after 3-year slow decline A decline in bilateral trade was among the issues addressed in Thursday’s meeting between Indonesia Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi and Thai Foreign Minister Don Pramudwina. The two have vowed to enhance economic relations to boost trade figures, including a potential aircraft purchase from Indonesian aerospace company PT Dirgantara Indonesia (PTDI). (The Jakarta Post) Moody’s: Indonesia’s growth to stabilize near current levels Moody's Investors Service says that growth for Indonesia will stabilize near current levels as the economy has adapted to lower commodity prices and policy has turned more accommodative. Moody's conclusions were contained in its credit analysis on Indonesia, and which examines the sovereign in four categories: economic strength, which is assessed as "high (+)"; institutional strength "low (+)"; fiscal strength "high ()"; and susceptibility to event risk "moderate (-)". It also follows Moody's decision on 28 January to affirm Indonesia's Baa3 government bond rating. (IQ Plus) BKPM: Investment could reach IDR3,500tn in 2021 Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM) Speaker Franky Sibarani is optimistic that investment value could reach IDR3,500tn in 2021 due to the government’s aggressiveness on investment. Franky stated that investment realization during 2010-2014 reached IDR1,600tn, while he expects that the value would be increased to IDR600tn in 2016. (Investor Daily)
BOURSE Lippo plans to list mataharimall.com Lippo Group plans to spinoff its e-commerce business, mataharimall.com, through an IPO in the next 2-3 years. Currently, Lippo Group owns mataharimall.com shares through its subsidiary Lippo Karawaci (LPKR IJ-REDUCE-IDR995-TP:IDR1,130). Recently, mataharimall.com obtained USD500mn loans, of which USD200mn came from US/European investment banks, while the remaining USD300mn was from the Lippo Group. (britama.com) MRA Group to IPO in 2018 Mugi Rekso Abadi (MRA) Group plans to IPO in 2018. CEO of MRA Group Soetikno Soedarjo stated that the company plans to sell 20-30% stake to the public to be used to expand its business. (cnnindonesia.com) PT Bahana Securities – Equity Research – Bahana Beacon - The Daily
Asiamoney's 2013 Best Domestic Equity House
2014 Finance Asia's Best Equity House
Alpha Southeast Asia 2014 Best Research Call FMCG Sector
2015 Institutional Investors Highest Ranked Local Research House
2015 Global Banking & Finance Review Best Research House
INDUSTRY Automotive: January unofficial retail sales: 4W: +1% y-y; 2W: -17% y-y Based on unofficial retail sales figures released by Gaikindo (4W association) and AISI (2W association), January 4W sales reached 82k units (+1% y-y but -14% m-m), with 2W sales reaching 416k units (-17% yy and -20% m-m). For the 4W, Toyota (ASII) booked monthly sales of 25.4k units (+13% y-y). For the 2W, Honda (ASII) booked monthly sales of 287.8k units (-15% y-y). Furthermore, 4W January wholesale sales reached 84.9k units (-10% y-y) as auto distributors want to lower their inventory level. (Bisnis Indonesia). Bahana comment: In 2016, we expect flat 4W and 2W sales volumes on the back of weak purchasing power. We will be closely watching 2W sales progress ahead as the January figure has been much lower than our expectation. Honda recalls 367k cars due to airbag problems Honda Prospect Motor (HPM), sole distributor of 4W Honda, recalled 367k units of 4W that were sold during 2002-2013 on the back of airbag problems. Takata airbags have received world-wide complaints due to safety problems. Thus, HPM decided to recall all cars using Takata airbags. (Kontan). BI: Flat primary residential prices in 4Q15 According to BI’s residential property survey, the primary property price index only grew 0.73% q-q, but was up 4.62% y-y in 4Q15, compared to 3Q15 that grew 0.99% q-q and 5.46% y-y. BI expects this trend will continue into 1Q16. However, the survey also showed that property sales in 4Q15 only grew 6.02% q-q (3Q15: +7.66% q-q). (bi.go.id). Bahana comment: This primary property survey is pretty much in line with our secondary property market survey last week, which stated that Serpong’s ASP only grew 3% y-y with an average selling period of 19-21 months (normally 12 months). FSA to appoint 19 banks to disburse subsidized micro loans (KUR) in 2016 The Financial Services Authority (FSA) will appoint 19 banks to disburse up to IDR103.2tn of subsidized micro loans (KUR) from the budget allocation in 2016. In terms of details, 70% of the budget (IDR92tn) would be distributed by three SOE banks (BBRI,BBNI, BMRI), and the remaining 30% (IDR11.2tn) would be spread among the remaining 16 banks, consisting of 7 regional development banks and 9 private banks. 2016 KUR allocation breakdown Total allocation budget IDR 103.2tn 70% of the budget SOE banks: IDR 92tn Bank Rakyat Indonesia IDR 67.5tn Bank Mandiri IDR 11.5tn Bank Negara Indonesia IDR 13tn 30% allocation budget Regional Development Banks: BPD Kalimantan Barat BPD Nusa Tenggara Timur BPD DI Yogyakarta BPD Sulawesi Selatan BPD Sulawesi Barat BPD Jawa Tengah BPD Sumatra Utara
IDR 11.2tn
Other private banks: Bank Central Asia Bank Bukopin Bank Artha Graha Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional 5 banks waiting for approval Source: CNNIndonesia, IQplus
ESDM has not set 2016 coal production target The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry (ESDM) stated that they have not set 2016 coal production target as they still working on the draft budget, currently they expect 383mn mt, flat compared to 2015’s figure. For the national Mid-term Plan 2015-2019, coal production was set at 419mn mt. (Bisnis Indonesia) PT Bahana Securities – Equity Research – Bahana Beacon - The Daily
3
Asiamoney's 2013 Best Domestic Equity House
2014 Finance Asia's Best Equity House
Alpha Southeast Asia 2014 Best Research Call FMCG Sector
2015 Institutional Investors Highest Ranked Local Research House
2015 Global Banking & Finance Review Best Research House
Media - Nielsen: 2015 ad spend +7% y-y; TV ad spend +12% y-y Based on a recent study by Nielsen, 2015 total ad spend reached IDR118tn, up 7.3% y-y from IDR110tn in 2014, with the e-commerce sector leading the growth, while government and political organizations dominated the volumes on the back of regional elections last year. The ad spend from e-commerce players reached IDR3.5tn, up around 44% from last year with significant contribution from the likes of Tokopedia with IDR625bn (+16x y-y) and Traveloka with IDR697bn (+187% y-y). The biggest ad spenders by products were still the FMCG led by instant noodle brands, Indomie (IDR971bn) and Mie Sedap (IDR734bn). Most of the total ad spend went to TV, reaching IDR84.7tn (contributed around 72%), +12% y-y, and the reminder went to newspapers (contributed 26%, -13.4% y-y) and magazines (contributed 3%, -4.0% y-y). (Jakarta Globe). Bahana Comment: We note that the ad spend figure above stemmed from 15 FTA TVs, 101 newspapers and 132 magazines. While digital ads were not included, we believe it has been growing at the expense of printed medias, as TV ad spend still showed modest growth. Additionally, we see that TV ad spend recovered in 4Q15 backed by increasing confidence among advertisers as 1H15 TV ad spend only reached IDR41tn (+9% y-y). However, it is worth to note that the figures above are based on gross rate cards excluding any discounts, promo and other marketing gimmicks which may lead to an overstated number. Gold demand +4% y-y in 4Q15, but -0.3% y-y in 2015 World gold demand in 4Q15 increased 4% y-y to a 10-quarter high of 1,117.7 tons. Full-year demand was virtually unchanged, down 0.3% y-y to 4,212 tons, while supply growth saw its slowest growth since 2008. Weakness in 1H15 was negated by strength in 2H15. 4Q15 growth was driven by central banks (+33 tons) and investment (+25 tons), offset by a marginal contraction in jewelries (-6 tons) and continued declines in technology (-6 tons). Supply remained constrained: annual mine production increased by the slowest rate since 2008 (+1%) and recycling dropped to multi-year lows. Total supply declined 4% to 4,258 tons – the lowest since 2009. (World Gold Council, Platts)
CORPORATE JSMR 4Q15 results: Above our and consensus on lower opex Jasa Marga (JSMR IJ-BUY-IDR6,000-TP:IDR6,250) booked above our and consensus 4Q15 net earnings of IDR505bn (+73.7% q-q, +39.6% y-y), supported by a hefty drop in 4Q15 operating expenses to IDR971bn (-16.3% q-q, -23.1% y-y). This translated to 2015 net earnings of IDR1,466bn (+3.1% y-y), or 115% and 109%, respectively, of our and consensus estimates. On the top line, JSMR booked a relatively in-line 2015 sales of IDR7.6tn (+5.4% y-y) while net interest expenses rose to IDR1.4tn (+15.6% y-y). Meanwhile, JSMR’s 4Q15 net gearing remained steady at 121% (3Q15: 118%), although its debt level rose to IDR15.9tn (+14.4% y-y). In 2015, JSMR’s traffic increased to 1.37bn vehicles (+4.5% y-y). (Company). Bahana comment: JSMR’s opex unexpectedly fell in 4Q15 despite the operation of its new GempolPandaan toll road and an 11.2% increase in Indonesia’s average 2015 minimum wage. However, low opex growth could help JSMR to dampen the increase in interest costs due to the operation of new toll roads (additional 71km in 2016) as well as the company’s rising capex (management: IDR14tn, Bahana: IDR7.4tn). We plan to revisit our model following the release of the full set of financial statements. JSMR 4Q15 Results (IDRb) Sales Operating expense Operating profit Net interest inc./(exp.) Other income/(exp.) Pretax profit Taxation Minority interest Net profit BS & ratio analysis Operating margin (%) Net margin (%) Receivable Days Total cash Total debt Net gearing (%)
4Q14 2,007 1,263 744 (547) 287 484 (197) 75 362 4Q14 37.1 18.0 7 3,291 12,672 82.1
3Q15 1,834 1,160 674 (332) 32 374 (134) 51 291 3Q15 36.7 15.9 8 2,498 13,920 118.2
4Q15 2,168 971 1,197 (496) 139 840 (351) 16 505 4Q15 55.2 23.3 9 3,323 15,921 120.9
q-q (%) 18.2 (16.3) 77.6 49.5 334.7 124.5 162.0 (68.2) 73.7
y-y (%) 8.0 (23.1) 60.9 (9.3) (51.5) 73.5 78.3 (78.5) 39.6
4Q15/ 4Q15F 107.0 177.6
173.7
2014 7,253 4,477 2,775 (1,215) 291 1,851 (614) 185 1,422 2014 38.3 19.6 7 3,291 13,283 101.3
2015 7,646 4,411 3,235 (1,405) 239 2,068 (749) 147 1,466 2015A 42.3 19.2 7 3,323 15,921 120.9
y-y (%) 5.4 (1.5) 16.5 15.6 (17.9) 11.8 22.1 (20.8) 3.1 2015F 37.8 16.8 7 3,431 16,176 120.4
2015/ 2015F 100.7
2015/ Cons. 89.1
112.7
108.5
130.5
117.1
114.7 2016F 38.5 16.6 7 3,131 20,258 147.1
109.1 2017F 38.1 15.4 7 2,701 23,518 164.0
Source: Company, Bahana forecasts, Bloomberg
PT Bahana Securities – Equity Research – Bahana Beacon - The Daily
4
Asiamoney's 2013 Best Domestic Equity House
2014 Finance Asia's Best Equity House
Alpha Southeast Asia 2014 Best Research Call FMCG Sector
2015 Institutional Investors Highest Ranked Local Research House
2015 Global Banking & Finance Review Best Research House
ADHI: 1M16 new contracts reached IDR1.1tn Adhi Karya (ADHI IJ-BUY-IDR2,670) recorded 1M16 new order books of IDR1.1tn (1M15: IDR192bn), of which the majority was still derived from private investors (47%), followed by SOEs (27%) and government (26%). Several new projects which were booked in January 2016 included Bojong flat (IDR242bn), Kimia Farma building facility (IDR136bn) and UNHAS faculty (IDR129bn). In 2016, ADHI targets total new contracts of IDR25.1tn (Bahana: IDR25.3tn). (Company) SMCB completes IDR2.1tn merger with Lafarge Indonesia Holcim Indonesia (SMCB IJ-REDUCE-IDR915) has completed its merger process with Lafarge Indonesia with a total transaction of IDR2.1tn on 10 February 2016. SMCB would use two credit facilities from its parent company, Holderfin BV, totaling EUR150m with interest rates of 4.1-4.3% above Euribor. Post-merger, SMCB’s 3Q15 liabilities would increase to IDR13.4tn with total debt of IDR9.4tn (net gearing: 99%). On the bottom line, SMCB would instead book a post-merger net profit of IDR70.8bn from net loss of IDR372bn prior to the merger. (Company, Investor Daily). Bahana comment: Total acquisition cost of IDR2.1tn translates to a rather inexpensive EV/ton of USD100 based on Lafarge Indonesia’s plant capacity of 1.6mnt per annum. Nevertheless, we remain cautious on the rising debt levels which need to be taken by SMCB to complete the merger amid falling margins and intense competition from new players. We plan to revisit our model to take into consideration the merger. BSDE to launch 2 clusters in February 2016 Bumi Serpong Damai (BSDE IJ-BUY-IDR1,765-TP:IDR2,020) plans to launch 2 clusters in BSD City named Sevilla and Vanya parks in February 2016. Total available units to sell are 329 houses with prices starting from IDR994m-1.6bn. (Company). Bahana comment: We expect that BSDE will struggle to sell its 2 new clusters given the current weak demand on the ground. Based on our survey last week, Serpong’s ASP only grew 3% y-y in 2015 with an average selling period of 19-21 months (normally 12 months). However, these two new clusters may help the company to achieve its 2016 marketing sales target of IDR6.8tn (Bahana: IDR6.6tn). SSIA sets IDR1.3tn for industrial land expansion Surya Semesta Internusa (SSIA IJ-BUY-IDR610-TP:IDR720) plans to establish a joint venture company with initial capital IDR1.3tn for industrial land expansion in Karawang. According to SSIA President Director Johannes Suriadjaja, the company is currently in talks with one potential partner for the joint venture establishment, where SSIA will be the majority shareholder of the new company. The IDR1.3tn fund will be used to acquire 160ha of land. The joint venture targets to work on 400ha of land where 110ha belongs to SSIA and 130ha belongs to SSIA’s potential partner. The joint venture is part of SSIA’s land expansion strategy, given SSIA’s limited land bank. (Bisnis Indonesia). Bahana comment: We believe this JV project should be able to boost SSIA’s expansion strategy this year given SSIA’s limited land bank in Karawang. At this stage, the company only has 136ha of land bank, the smallest amongst industrial players.
PT Bahana Securities – Equity Research – Bahana Beacon - The Daily
5
Asiamoney's 2013 Best Domestic Equity House
2014 Finance Asia's Best Equity House
Alpha Southeast Asia 2014 Best Research Call FMCG Sector
2015 Institutional Investors Highest Ranked Local Research House
2015 Global Banking & Finance Review Best Research House
BAHANA EQUITY COVERAGE, LEADERS & LAGGARDS (Daily) COMPANY Bank Danamon Indonesia Adaro Energy Astra International Summarecon Agung Kimia Farma Ramayana Lestari Sentosa Ciputra Development Surya Citra Media J Resources Salim Ivomas Pratama Agung Podomoro Land Mitra Adiperkasa Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Pakuwon Jati Waskita Karya Timah Krakatau Steel Total Bangun Persada Aneka Tambang Nippon Indosari Corpindo Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estates Surya Semesta Internusa Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Multipolar Adhi Karya Jasa Marga Semen Indonesia Sri Rejeki Isman Bank Bukopin Bank Mandiri Ace Hardware Indonesia Bumi Serpong Damai Kawasan Industri Jababeka Unilever Indonesia Soechi Lines Pembangunan Perumahan Mayora Indah Bank Negara Indonesia Bukit Asam Telekomunikasi Indonesia Indo Tambangraya Megah Holcim Indonesia Express Transindo Utama Bank Tabungan Negara Sido Muncul Indomobil Sukses Internasional AKR Corporindo Wijaya Karya Indonesian Stock Exchange Alam Sutera Realty Lippo Cikarang Bank Rakyat Indonesia Tunas Baru Lampung Ciputra Property Semen Baturaja Perusahaan Gas Negara Bank Central Asia Lippo Karawaci Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional Cardig Aero Services Electronic City HM Sampoerna Tempo Scan Pacific Siloam International Hospitals Merdeka Copper Gold Dharma Satya Nusantara Austindo Nusantara Jaya Japfa Comfeed Indonesia Malindo Feedmill Pelayaran Tempuran Emas Wintermar Offshore Marine Xl Axiata Tower Bersama Infrastructure Anabatic Technologies Blue Bird United Tractors Kalbe Farma Indosat Hero Supermarket Wijaya Karya Beton Matahari Putra Prima Vale Indonesia Indofood Sukses Makmur Gudang Garam Erajaya Swasembada Bank Jawa Timur Matahari Department Store Medco Energi Internasional Bank Jawa Barat dan Banten Gajah Tunggal Harum Energy Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat Puradelta Lestari Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Adi Sarana Armada Astra Agro Lestari Tiphone Mobile Indonesia PP Property Sampoerna Agro London Sumatra Indonesia Garuda Indonesia Sarana Menara Nusantara Media Nusantara Citra
Source: Bloomberg, Bahana estimates
STOCK CODE BDMN IJ ADRO IJ ASII IJ SMRA IJ KAEF IJ RALS IJ CTRA IJ SCMA IJ PSAB IJ SIMP IJ APLN IJ MAPI IJ INTP IJ PWON IJ WSKT IJ TINS IJ KRAS IJ TOTL IJ ANTM IJ ROTI IJ BEST IJ SSIA IJ CPIN IJ MLPL IJ ADHI IJ JSMR IJ SMGR IJ SRIL IJ BBKP IJ BMRI IJ ACES IJ BSDE IJ KIJA IJ UNVR IJ SOCI IJ PTPP IJ MYOR IJ BBNI IJ PTBA IJ TLKM IJ ITMG IJ SMCB IJ TAXI IJ BBTN IJ SIDO IJ IMAS IJ AKRA IJ WIKA IJ JCI ASRI IJ LPCK IJ BBRI IJ TBLA IJ CTRP IJ SMBR IJ PGAS IJ BBCA IJ LPKR IJ BTPN IJ CASS IJ ECII IJ HMSP IJ TSPC IJ SILO IJ MDKA IJ DSNG IJ ANJT IJ JPFA IJ MAIN IJ TMAS IJ WINS IJ EXCL IJ TBIG IJ ATIC IJ BIRD IJ UNTR IJ KLBF IJ ISAT IJ HERO IJ WTON IJ MPPA IJ INCO IJ INDF IJ GGRM IJ ERAA IJ BJTM IJ LPPF IJ MEDC IJ BJBR IJ GJTL IJ HRUM IJ MIKA IJ DMAS IJ ICBP IJ ASSA IJ AALI IJ TELE IJ PPRO IJ SGRO IJ LSIP IJ GIAA IJ TOWR IJ MNCN IJ
RATING BUY BUY REDUCE BUY BUY REDUCE BUY HOLD BUY HOLD REDUCE BUY REDUCE HOLD BUY REDUCE REDUCE BUY REDUCE BUY REDUCE BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY HOLD BUY HOLD BUY HOLD BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY REDUCE REDUCE REDUCE BUY HOLD HOLD BUY BUY
TARGET PRICE 3,400 700 5,550 1,820 1,350 640 1,400 3,250 1,400 290 220 4,750 16,400 490 2,250 411 275 940 207 1,450 300 720 3,500 550 2,550 6,250 10,600 500 730 9,700 875 2,020 270 46,000 630 4,300 31,000 5,700 7,800 3,750 5,200 925 120 1,520 480 2,000 7,000 3,100
Up/(Downside)(%) (16.7) 15.7 (22.1) 14.8 20.0 0.0 6.5 12.3 48.9 (17.6) (30.4) 28.4 (17.5) 3.8 17.5 (26.6) (27.4) 62.1 (41.4) 5.5 48.5 18.0 (6.4) 164.4 (4.5) 4.2 (3.4) 88.7 36.4 (3.0) 1.2 14.4 13.9 10.7 46.9 8.9 17.0 5.6 75.5 9.3 7.0 1.1 30.4 6.3 (5.0) (2.4) (12.2) 14.8
REDUCE BUY BUY BUY REDUCE HOLD REDUCE BUY REDUCE REDUCE HOLD REDUCE BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY REDUCE BUY BUY BUY HOLD BUY HOLD BUY REDUCE HOLD HOLD BUY REDUCE BUY BUY HOLD BUY BUY BUY REDUCE BUY BUY BUY BUY REDUCE SELL BUY BUY BUY REDUCE BUY HOLD HOLD BUY BUY BUY BUY
300 8,300 13,000 570 365 300 2,500 14,700 1,130 2,350 1,250 700 115,000 2,000 14,700 2,200 535 1,000 880 1,700 3,000 190 4,400 6,500 800 4,700 16,000 1,480 6,800 650 1,100 2,750 1,400 6,600 65,000 850 420 19,800 1,300 1,020 860 500 1,900 290 16,800 130 14,300 1,180 180 1,800 1,500 400 5,000 2,000
(9.9) 47.6 9.5 15.2 (2.7) (6.3) 1.8 10.1 13.6 12.4 0.0 0.0 7.5 13.6 64.2 15.8 13.8 (41.2) 13.5 27.8 60.0 69.6 10.7 6.1 30.1 (21.0) (2.9) 12.1 23.6 (38.4) 11.7 47.5 1.4 (1.9) 6.6 53.2 1.9 18.6 91.2 12.7 78.4 (16.0) (10.0) 41 11.6 30.0 (11.7) 81.5 (4.8) 0.0 5.3 (9.3) 18.9 40.4
02/11/2016 4,080 605 7,125 1,585 1,125 640 1,315 2,895 940 352 316 3,700 19,875 472 1,915 560 379 580 353 1,375 202 610 3,740 208 2,670 6,000 10,975 265 535 10,000 865 1,765 237 41,550 429 3,950 26,500 5,400 4,445 3,430 4,860 915 92 1,430 505 2,050 7,975 2,700 4,776 333 5,625 11,875 495 375 320 2,455 13,350 995 2,090 1,250 700 107,000 1,760 8,950 1,900 470 1,700 775 1,330 1,875 112 3,975 6,125 615 5,950 16,475 1,320 5,500 1,055 985 1,865 1,380 6,725 61,000 555 412 16,700 680 905 482 595 2,110 205 15,050 100 16,200 650 189 1,800 1,425 441 4,205 1,425
02/10/2016 3,800 575 6,800 1,520 1,080 615 1,265 2,785 905 339 305 3,575 19,225 457 1,855 545 369 565 344 1,340 197 595 3,650 203 2,610 5,875 10,750 260 525 9,825 850 1,735 233 40,850 422 3,890 26,100 5,325 4,385 3,385 4,800 905 91 1,415 500 2,030 7,900 2,675 4,732 330 5,575 11,775 491 372 318 2,440 13,275 990 2,085 1,250 700 107,000 1,760 8,950 1,900 470 1,700 775 1,330 1,875 112 3,975 6,125 615 5,950 16,500 1,325 5,525 1,060 990 1,875 1,390 6,775 61,500 560 416 16,900 690 920 490 605 2,150 209 15,350 102 16,525 665 194 1,850 1,470 460 4,390 1,505
CHANGE (%) 7.4 5.2 4.8 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.1 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (0.2) (0.4) (0.5) (0.5) (0.5) (0.5) (0.7) (0.7) (0.8) (0.9) (1.0) (1.2) (1.4) (1.6) (1.6) (1.7) (1.9) (1.9) (2.0) (2.0) (2.0) (2.3) (2.6) (2.7) (3.1) (4.1) (4.2) (5.3)
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PT Bahana Securities – Equity Research – Bahana Beacon - The Daily
6
2014 Finance Asia's Best Equity House
Asiamoney's 2013 Best Domestic Equity House
Ticker
Rating N BUY HOLD
441 1,250
400 1,250
25,869 2,087
14.9 56.6
Mkt cap (IDRb) 14,017 11,408 2,609
3M avg to (IDRb) 9.8 9.8 0.0
AUTOMOTIVE ASII IJ IMAS IJ GJTL IJ
UW REDUC E HOLD BUY
7,125 2,050 482
5,550 2,000 860
40,484 2,765 3,485
49.8 10.5 39.8
295,794 288,445 5,669 1,680
248.1 247.2 0.1 0.8
215,860 184,851 18,176 12,833
227,222 193,520 19,770 13,932
247,701 211,196 21,414 15,091
18,472 17,427 96 950
19,678 18,498 149 1,031
21,842 20,496 229 1,117
BANKS BBC A IJ BBRI IJ BMRI IJ BBNI IJ BDMN IJ BTPN IJ BBTN IJ BJBR IJ BJTM IJ BBKP IJ
N BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY REDUC E BUY BUY REDUC E HOLD
13,350 11,875 10,000 5,400 4,080 2,090 1,430 905 412 535
14,700 13,000 9,700 5,700 3,400 2,350 1,520 1,020 420 730
24,655 24,669 23,333 18,649 9,585 5,840 10,582 9,696 14,918 9,087
50.8 43.2 40.0 40.0 32.5 50.8 39.9 25.0 20.0 40.5
1,042,354 329,144 292,946 233,333 100,703 39,105 12,206 15,133 8,775 6,146 4,861
842.6 185.4 288.0 187.4 137.6 9.1 0.1 22.0 9.6 1.6 1.8
266,270 48,667 66,953 62,897 37,239 20,353 8,452 7,439 6,392 3,633 4,247
291,640 52,850 73,440 69,286 40,951 21,026 9,489 8,816 6,898 4,052 4,832
323,366 58,014 81,052 77,120 45,725 23,106 10,678 10,234 7,494 4,518 5,423
99,194 22,474 28,314 26,068 9,966 3,623 2,444 2,215 1,432 1,290 1,366
109,580 24,585 31,205 26,665 13,232 4,017 2,665 2,686 1,599 1,398 1,528
121,941 26,964 34,621 30,171 14,595 4,681 2,817 3,039 1,790 1,575 1,687
CEMENT SMGR IJ INTP IJ SMC B IJ SMBR IJ
UW HOLD REDUC E REDUC E HOLD
10,975 19,875 915 320
10,600 16,400 925 300
5,932 3,681 7,663 9,838
49.0 36.0 19.4 23.8
148,423 65,098 73,164 7,012 3,148
110.1 59.6 46.9 0.7 2.9
54,849 26,545 17,473 9,352 1,479
56,706 27,486 18,073 9,619 1,528
59,100 28,611 18,951 9,904 1,633
11,007 5,612 4,768 287 340
11,320 5,594 4,834 566 325
11,840 5,873 5,084 538 345
COAL UNTR IJ ADRO IJ* ITMG IJ* PTBA IJ HRUM IJ*
UW HOLD BUY REDUC E BUY REDUC E
16,475 605 4,860 4,445 595
16,000 700 5,200 7,800 500
3,730 31,986 1,130 2,304 2,704
40.5 43.0 34.8 28.7 28.8
98,147 61,454 19,352 5,491 10,242 1,609
125.1 63.8 18.7 7.4 34.7 0.5
130,282 49,968 39,074 23,102 14,428 3,710
127,128 49,619 38,836 19,323 15,832 3,518
131,490 51,535 38,626 21,830 15,981 3,518
19,416 8,357 5,712 2,643 2,661 42
17,610 8,192 5,264 1,351 2,774 28
15,141 8,437 3,570 629 2,547 (42)
6,000 2,700 3,950 1,915 985 2,670 580
6,250 3,100 4,300 1,975 1,100 2,550 940
6,800 6,149 4,842 13,572 8,715 3,561 3,410
30.0 34.9 45.7 34.0 28.1 74.2 33.7
122,592 40,800 16,603 19,128 25,991 8,585 9,507 1,978
228.3 36.1 26.7 21.4 48.0 18.0 74.6 3.5
64,550 7,592 12,150 14,909 15,174 2,570 9,817 2,338
85,995 8,703 14,875 20,378 20,580 4,160 14,680 2,618
104,429 9,631 17,597 24,313 24,605 5,824 19,059 3,400
8,556 2,870 1,297 1,695 1,434 258 784 218
11,084 3,351 1,718 2,223 1,918 454 1,155 266
12,947 3,669 2,050 2,659 2,148 620 1,483 317
2,895 16,700 1,425 1,865 865 1,055 640 3,700 700
3,250 19,800 2,000 2,750 650 650 640 4,750 700
14,622 2,918 14,276 5,378 17,150 4,184 7,096 1,660 1,334
38.2 79.5 36.4 23.7 40.0 13.4 40.5 44.0 25.0
153,120 42,330 48,729 20,343 10,030 14,835 4,414 4,541 6,964 934
113.7 19.1 57.9 12.1 12.9 7.3 0.0 1.1 3.2 0.0
76,680 4,253 9,340 6,675 14,286 4,698 15,118 7,774 12,760 1,776
84,783 4,573 10,872 7,006 16,331 5,086 16,906 8,038 14,054 1,917
95,235 4,983 12,699 7,519 18,267 5,647 19,439 8,534 16,027 2,121
11,515 2,408 3,346 2,936 839 787 72 282 778 67
107,000 41,550 61,000 1,320 6,725 15,050 26,500 1,760 505 1,375 1,125 2,110 8,950
115,000 46,000 65,000 1,480 6,600 16,800 31,000 2,000 480 1,450 1,350 1,900 14,700
4,653 7,630 1,924 46,875 8,780 5,831 894 4,500 15,000 5,062 5,554 14,551 1,156
7.5 15.0 23.5 43.3 49.9 19.5 66.9 21.9 19.0 29.3 10.0 18.0 29.2
1,234,369 497,841 317,027 117,369 61,875 59,048 87,756 23,700 7,920 7,575 6,960 6,248 30,702 10,347
424.7 107.9 62.9 58.0 69.2 48.2 28.2 0.6 0.3 2.3 1.7 4.8 0.0 40.5
346,896 88,712 36,115 69,029 17,786 64,352 32,115 14,886 8,220 2,268 2,189 5,070 2,038 4,116
380,892 97,119 40,257 73,916 19,300 70,849 35,481 16,395 9,160 2,424 2,693 5,754 2,301 5,242
424,517 107,376 45,540 81,379 20,943 78,078 39,775 18,557 10,888 2,719 3,343 6,599 2,645 6,675
48,566 14,004 7,976 8,963 2,549 6,801 3,936 1,697 640 495 389 342 560 215
52,638 14,253 8,943 9,718 2,812 7,610 4,507 1,773 713 530 458 422 622 276
59,726 16,717 10,108 10,751 3,080 8,547 5,071 1,917 785 598 575 524 704 350
4,286 1,375 756 411 845 900
4,883 1,711 851 321 937 1,063
AVIATION GIAA IJ* C ASS IJ
Price (IDR)
TP (IDR)
Shares (m)
Free float (%)
Revenue (IDRb) 2015F 2016F 2017F 59,049 66,614 76,230 57,368 64,708 74,084 1,680 1,905 2,146
Opt. profit (IDRb) 2015F 2016F 2017F 1,468 1,969 2,577 1,050 1,474 2,005 418 496 571
Net profit (IDRb) 2015F 2016F 2017F 1,090 1,724 2,165 966 1,582 2,005 124 142 160
2017F 6.5 na 16.4
EV/EBITDA (x) 2015F 2016F 7.2 5.8 7.6 6.0 5.6 4.8
2017F 5.2 5.4 4.3
2015F 1.1 0.1 5.6
P/BV (x) 2016F 0.9 0.1 4.6
2017F 0.7 0.0 3.8
2015F 0.2 0.0 1.2
Yield (%) 2016F 0.3 0.0 1.4
2017F 0.3 0.0 1.5
Net gearing (%) 2015F 2016F 2017F (101.3) (86.9) (77.1) (125.2) (108.1) (97.2) 3.1 5.5 11.0
ROAE (%) 2016F 14.1 11.1 27.5
2017F 13.8 11.2 25.4
16.2 16.8 (5.6) (7.7)
15.8 16.2 2.3 1.3
16.1 16.3 5.2 8.4
2015F 11.7 7.6 29.7
ROAA (%) 2016F 4.7 3.3 10.9
2017F 5.0 3.6 11.2
6.8 7.0 (1.3) (2.6)
6.8 7.0 0.5 0.4
7.1 7.2 1.0 2.4
2.6 3.1 2.9 2.1 2.2 1.3 2.2 1.1 1.5 2.2 1.2
2.5 3.0 2.8 2.1 2.2 1.2 2.1 1.0 1.5 2.2 1.2
12.1 10.7 14.7 0.5 9.0
11.6 10.0 14.3 0.8 6.1
2015F 3.7 2.2 10.7
ROIC (%) 2016F 9.1 5.1 26.3
2017F 8.9 5.5 23.4
10.9 11.2 0.6 0.5
11.3 11.5 1.2 3.4
na na na na na na na na na na na
na na na na na na na na na na na
22.3 17.6 28.3 (1.7) 33.1
19.2 15.6 24.4 0.7 13.7
18.5 14.4 24.4 1.0 7.1
2015F 8.0 3.9 26.2
10.9 4.9 na na
14.0 11.1 na na
18.5 17.2 na na
16.6 16.4 44.8 27.1
14.6 14.8 19.4 3.9
13.8 13.5 33.0 5.1
13.2 12.8 32.5 4.7
12.1 11.7 30.8 5.7
2.7 2.8 1.1 0.3
2.5 2.5 1.0 0.3
2.3 2.3 1.0 0.3
2.6 2.6 0.0 0.0
2.7 2.7 0.6 0.9
3.0 3.0 1.3 6.5
50.7 45.9 269.4 130.5
49.4 44.1 297.2 129.3
46.2 40.4 316.2 130.3
80,313 18,176 24,426 20,004 8,372 2,613 1,822 1,663 1,227 942 1,067
88,704 19,883 26,815 20,330 11,022 2,998 1,987 2,084 1,368 1,023 1,194
98,536 21,806 29,624 22,958 12,153 3,475 2,099 2,419 1,529 1,153 1,320
0.7 10.3 0.8 0.7 (22.4) 0.3 (1.7) 49.1 9.5 0.3 47.3
10.4 9.4 9.8 1.6 31.7 14.8 9.0 25.3 11.5 8.6 11.9
11.1 9.7 10.5 12.9 10.3 15.9 5.7 16.1 11.7 12.7 10.6
13.0 18.1 12.0 11.7 12.0 15.0 6.7 9.1 7.2 6.5 4.6
11.8 16.6 10.9 11.5 9.1 13.0 6.1 7.3 6.4 6.0 4.1
10.6 15.1 9.9 10.2 8.3 11.3 5.8 6.3 5.7 5.3 3.7
na na na na na na na na na na na
na na na na na na na na na na na
na na na na na na na na na na na
2.6 3.7 2.5 2.0 1.6 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.6
2.2 3.1 2.1 1.8 1.4 1.1 0.8 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.6
1.9 2.7 1.8 1.5 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.5
1.7 1.2 1.7 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.2 7.7 9.7 4.4
1.8 1.3 1.8 1.7 2.2 2.1 2.4 2.4 7.8 9.6 4.9
1.8 1.3 1.8 1.7 2.1 2.2 2.6 2.4 7.8 9.8 5.4
na na na na na na na na na na na
na na na na na na na na na na na
na na na na na na na na na na na
19.8 22.0 22.9 18.2 14.0 7.8 14.3 12.9 16.8 15.2 14.8
18.6 20.3 21.2 16.3 16.4 8.4 13.7 14.3 17.3 15.6 14.8
17.7 19.0 19.8 16.1 15.8 9.1 12.9 14.7 17.6 16.3 14.5
2.6 3.1 2.9 2.2 1.9 1.3 2.3 1.0 1.5 2.3 1.3
9,245 4,503 4,353 89 300
9,667 4,727 4,558 129 252
(25.4) (21.8) (17.7) na 10.9
4.7 3.5 0.3 na (17.5)
4.6 5.0 4.7 na (16.0)
16.8 15.0 16.9 na 8.6
16.1 14.5 16.8 78.9 10.5
15.4 13.8 16.1 54.4 12.5
10.5 9.4 11.6 12.1 3.9
10.2 9.3 11.3 8.8 6.4
9.5 8.5 10.7 8.2 8.5
2.7 2.5 3.0 0.9 1.1
2.5 2.3 3.0 0.9 1.0
2.4 2.0 2.9 0.9 0.9
3.6 2.0 5.3 0.0 2.9
3.6 2.1 5.4 1.0 2.4
3.8 2.2 5.6 1.4 2.0
4.3 2.6 nc 66.6 nc
7.1 9.6 nc 61.7 nc
5.2 6.3 nc 51.5 nc
16.6 17.6 17.7 (2.7) 12.8
16.3 16.6 17.9 1.1 9.7
16.1 15.5 18.3 1.6 7.6
12.8 11.8 15.0 (1.3) 11.9
12,401 6,383 2,856 992 2,198 (28)
10,797 6,395 1,960 546 1,990 (95)
12.1 27.5 40.9 (44.9) 7.7 (50)
(8.4) (6.8) (1.1) (35.9) 1.3 (1,000)
(12.9) 0.2 (33.7) (44.9) (9.4) 289
7.2 9.0 6.5 3.6 4.7 595.0
7.9 9.6 6.6 5.5 4.7 (66.1)
9.1 9.6 9.9 10.1 5.1 (17.0)
3.0 3.7 2.6 0.5 3.1 (10.9)
2.6 3.4 2.3 0.4 3.6 (20.1)
1.2 1.5 0.5 0.5 1.1 0.4
1.1 1.4 0.4 0.5 1.0 0.4
1.0 1.3 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.4
6.2 4.5 4.6 22.5 11.7 0.2
5.6 4.3 4.6 14.4 11.8 0.0
5.8 5.3 3.0 13.5 10.7 (1.0)
5.1 nc 26.0 nc nc nc
2.6 nc 13.2 nc nc nc
0.3 nc 1.7 nc nc nc
15.8 17.5 7.9 13.4 24.4 0.0
13.4 14.7 6.8 8.2 22.6 (0.7)
11.6 13.6 4.5 4.6 18.7 (2.4)
9.2 10.5 3.6 8.8 14.0 0.0
7.9 8.9 3.3 5.4 12.8 (0.5)
7.0 8.5 2.3 2.9 10.6 (1.8)
18.8 21.5 5.9 19.2 29.6 0.0
17.4 20.6 5.7 12.8 25.6 (2.5)
16.0 20.5 4.2 7.5 19.7 (9.7)
4,146 1,278 559 704 818 195 395 197
5,374 1,445 785 914 1,116 349 534 230
6,099 1,481 957 1,066 1,174 475 690 255
5.2 (9.0) (9.2) 32.4 37.9 (45.5) 0.9 20.4
24.6 13.1 40.6 29.8 17.3 79.5 (17.4) 16.7
8.9 2.5 21.8 16.6 5.2 36.1 29.2 10.9
29.6 31.9 29.7 27.2 26.9 44.1 14.7 10.0
22.8 28.2 21.1 20.9 23.0 24.6 17.8 8.6
20.1 27.5 17.3 17.9 21.8 18.1 13.8 7.7
14.0 14.0 12.1 11.6 15.2 24.2 10.8 6.0
12.1 12.9 9.4 9.2 14.9 15.0 9.8 5.0
10.9 12.4 7.9 8.1 14.4 11.3 7.2 4.2
3.6 3.9 3.7 4.6 2.9 3.9 2.0 2.2
3.2 3.5 3.2 4.0 2.6 3.5 1.8 2.0
2.8 3.2 2.7 3.4 2.4 3.1 1.6 1.8
1.0 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.6 0.7 1.4 5.2
1.2 1.1 1.4 1.4 0.9 1.2 1.1 6.0
1.4 1.1 1.7 1.7 0.9 1.7 1.5 7.0
56.7 120.4 51.7 35.0 19.1 1.6 nc nc
76.0 147.1 49.7 44.9 47.5 nc 41.6 nc
86.4 164.0 44.7 55.3 71.6 nc 25.4 nc
14.2 12.5 13.2 21.7 14.1 8.9 12.0 23.3
14.5 13.0 16.2 20.4 12.1 14.9 10.6 24.3
14.6 12.2 16.9 20.4 11.6 18.0 12.4 24.0
4.0 3.7 3.4 4.3 4.4 5.2 3.2 7.6
4.3 3.7 4.3 4.5 4.1 8.2 3.3 8.3
4.2 3.3 4.5 4.3 3.7 8.9 3.7 8.4
10.9 5.9 9.7 16.5 11.0 9.8 10.8 73.8
10.2 5.5 10.8 14.5 9.0 14.1 9.2 62.6
9.5 4.8 11.5 13.5 7.2 16.7 9.3 53.5
6,000 1,519 1,859 1,280 451 559 (29) 311 34 15
7,422 1,674 2,219 1,648 587 608 57 333 242 54
8,820 1,848 2,620 1,990 666 674 191 369 380 82
(7.1) 4.4 31.0 (27.3) (18.6) 1.4 na (12.3) (53.7) (88.0)
25.1 10.2 19.3 28.7 30.3 8.9 na 6.8 605.4 245.5
20.3 10.4 18.1 20.7 13.4 10.9 na 11.1 57.4 52.6
25.5 27.9 26.2 15.9 22.2 26.6 na 14.6 179.2 60.3
20.6 25.3 22.0 12.3 17.1 24.4 76.8 13.7 25.4 17.4
17.4 22.9 18.6 10.2 15.1 22.0 23.2 12.3 16.1 11.4
16.9 20.3 17.3 8.4 10.6 19.5 50.6 5.7 10.6 na
14.2 18.4 14.4 7.8 8.3 17.4 22.2 5.0 8.1 12.2
12.0 16.6 11.8 7.1 6.9 15.2 12.0 4.4 6.7 6.2
15.4 13.3 33.2 2.1 3.2 5.3 0.8 1.3 2.1 0.5
9.5 11.7 16.6 1.9 2.9 4.5 0.8 1.2 1.9 0.5
7.0 10.2 10.4 1.7 2.6 3.8 0.7 1.2 1.8 0.5
1.9 2.7 1.5 3.1 1.8 0.8 0.0 3.4 0.0 0.2
2.3 3.0 1.8 4.1 2.3 0.8 0.0 3.7 0.6 0.6
2.7 3.3 2.2 4.9 2.7 0.9 0.0 4.1 0.9 0.9
8.0 nc nc 30.7 nc nc 7.1 nc 80.7 nc
6.6 nc nc 24.8 nc nc 7.7 nc 67.2 nc
5.3 nc nc 16.7 nc nc 13.2 nc 59.3 nc
89.9 46.1 225.8 14.1 15.1 21.6 (0.5) 9.1 1.3 0.9
51.7 49.7 100.6 16.8 17.8 19.9 1.0 9.3 7.9 3.0
41.5 48.0 68.8 18.3 18.1 18.9 3.3 9.8 11.4 4.4
27.6 33.1 46.7 9.0 7.3 17.4 (0.3) 6.7 0.4 0.8
26.8 35.7 41.1 10.7 8.5 16.2 0.6 7.0 2.5 2.7
25.2 35.5 35.5 12.0 8.7 15.5 2.0 7.4 3.7 3.9
23.8 64.4 na 11.1 20.6 27.2 (0.5) 18.9 0.6 1.2
25.7 67.6 na 13.2 24.4 28.5 1.0 20.4 4.6 4.0
27.2 70.6 na 15.2 24.9 30.5 3.0 21.4 7.0 5.7
32,189 10,389 5,885 5,445 1,949 2,084 3,082 1,161 575 424 265 279 558 94
36,512 11,161 6,612 5,950 2,167 3,454 3,543 1,122 622 455 322 327 636 142
41,690 12,806 7,489 6,674 2,400 4,196 4,039 1,218 672 517 416 367 699 197
3.1 (2.3) 2.5 1.4 (5.6) (46.4) 18.4 187.6 (0.7) 1.4 40.3 19.1 4.3 49.7
12.5 6.5 12.4 9.3 11.2 65.7 15.0 (3.4) 8.1 7.1 21.6 17.1 10.3 63.0
14.0 14.5 13.3 12.2 10.7 21.5 14.0 8.6 7.8 13.3 29.2 12.1 9.3 28.8
38.3 47.6 53.9 21.6 31.7 28.3 28.5 20.4 13.8 18.0 26.3 22.4 54.1 110.5
33.8 44.7 47.9 19.7 28.6 17.1 24.8 21.1 12.7 16.8 21.6 19.1 49.1 67.8
29.6 39.0 42.3 17.6 25.8 14.1 21.7 19.5 11.8 14.9 16.7 17.0 44.9 52.6
28.8 32.9 38.4 12.3 19.8 7.9 19.0 12.1 8.1 11.5 14.1 17.5 45.7 17.6
27.0 32.3 34.7 11.4 17.2 6.8 16.8 11.4 7.3 10.4 11.8 14.7 41.0 13.8
23.6 27.7 30.7 10.3 15.7 5.9 14.8 10.4 6.5 9.0 9.8 14.9 36.6 10.6
24.0 14.5 64.6 3.2 5.9 2.3 5.6 4.7 1.8 2.6 6.0 3.1 9.7 6.0
21.7 14.6 56.0 2.9 5.3 2.1 4.9 4.0 1.7 2.3 5.0 2.8 9.5 5.6
19.6 14.6 48.4 2.7 4.8 1.9 4.4 3.4 1.4 2.0 4.1 2.5 8.9 5.1
1.8 2.1 1.7 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.0 3.3 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.6 0.1
2.1 2.2 2.0 2.2 1.8 2.8 1.8 0.9 3.5 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.5 0.2
2.3 2.6 2.2 2.4 1.9 3.4 2.0 1.0 3.8 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.5 0.3
6.2 nc (8.6) 45.2 nc 58.1 nc 48.7 nc nc 39.2 7.7 nc 20.6
7.1 nc nc 42.7 nc 38.7 nc 37.2 nc nc 17.6 15.4 nc 32.8
6.5 nc nc 40.8 nc 27.2 nc 27.5 nc nc 18.2 79.6 nc 34.5
55.2 43.6 123.8 15.6 19.7 8.1 20.6 25.9 13.4 15.1 25.0 14.8 23.3 5.5
51.2 32.6 125.1 15.4 19.7 12.8 21.1 20.8 13.4 14.4 25.2 15.4 20.4 7.9
52.7 37.5 122.6 15.8 19.6 14.3 21.4 19.2 13.1 14.5 26.7 15.4 21.0 10.1
24.5 26.7 40.0 8.8 15.0 2.4 11.7 10.7 9.7 14.1 11.1 9.0 19.7 3.2
23.2 22.5 41.0 8.7 15.1 3.8 12.1 9.7 9.8 13.5 11.4 9.4 17.5 4.5
24.5 25.7 40.9 9.0 15.1 4.4 12.4 9.9 9.6 13.6 12.7 7.6 18.0 5.4
66.5 61.6 135.4 10.5 24.0 5.0 28.6 15.5 21.2 23.0 16.3 15.1 65.2 4.7
65.9 61.7 132.7 10.7 24.6 8.7 27.9 14.6 19.8 22.0 19.7 13.8 61.2 6.3
64.8 63.2 126.1 11.1 25.0 10.7 26.7 14.6 18.3 21.5 22.6 10.3 54.8 7.6
5,636 1,859 952 444 1,095 1,284
3,576 1,520 283 225 579 970
4,065 1,705 431 159 618 1,152
4,776 1,799 600 326 716 1,334
18.6 57.7 (31.1) (42.5) 39.4 15.0
13.7 12.2 52.6 (29.3) 6.8 18.7
17.5 5.5 39.1 104.9 15.9 15.8
6.6 6.5 17.3 8.7 5.0 4.0
5.8 5.8 11.4 12.3 4.6 3.4
4.9 5.5 8.2 6.0 4.0 2.9
6.0 6.2 8.6 6.4 3.2 3.9
5.4 4.9 7.7 9.7 3.0 3.4
4.6 4.3 6.7 7.4 2.6 2.7
1.1 1.3 1.1 0.6 0.9 1.1
1.0 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.8 0.8
0.8 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.6
2.9 4.6 1.7 1.5 4.0 0.0
3.4 5.2 2.6 1.2 4.3 0.0
3.8 5.5 3.7 2.0 5.0 0.0
16.2 nc 62.2 23.9 10.3 nc
16.3 nc 56.5 39.5 10.0 nc
14.8 nc 48.4 43.3 9.5 nc
18.7 22.0 6.4 7.6 20.0 30.8
18.0 21.2 9.2 5.1 18.2 27.4
17.7 19.4 11.7 9.7 18.2 24.5
13.2 18.9 3.1 5.4 8.8 18.7
13.1 19.3 4.3 3.2 8.2 16.8
13.0 18.5 5.4 5.9 8.5 15.7
20.2 26.0 4.1 6.6 18.6 33.9
19.2 25.6 5.8 3.9 16.5 29.7
18.5 23.6 7.7 6.9 16.6 26.2
(2,367) (3,047) 60 696 (75)
(1,640) (2,636) 110 930 (43)
(1,198) (2,513) 146 1,176 (7)
na na (12.7) 25.6 na
na na 65.0 32.3 na
na na 17.3 6.7 na
na na 10.5 5.1 na
na na 7.9 5.1 na
3.3 na 6.8 5.7 5.5
3.3 na 5.8 4.7 7.7
3.0 na 4.9 3.9 8.2
0.7 0.3 1.5 1.2 0.3
0.6 0.3 1.5 1.0 0.3
0.6 0.3 1.3 1.0 0.3
2.7 0.0 1.7 1.5 13.6
0.8 0.0 1.3 2.0 0.0
0.9 0.0 2.4 2.0 0.0
87.6 83.6 52.4 138.1 nc
88.2 112.8 50.7 104.2 1.1
32.9 0.0 47.1 80.9 6.1
0.7 (16.9) 12.4 20.1 (0.9)
3.4 (11.8) 14.8 20.8 (0.5)
3.6 (12.7) 17.1 21.8 (0.1)
(0.4) (7.0) 2.8 6.9 (0.3)
21.6 22.2 0.7 6.4
19.7 20.2 2.2 7.6
17.8 18.2 2.4 8.6
11.4 11.7 0.2 2.1
8,832 4,352 4,340 (225) 364 13,545 6,847 2,982 1,546 2,170 0
CONSUMER - STAPLES HMSP IJ UNVR IJ GGRM IJ KLBF IJ INDF IJ IC BP IJ MYOR IJ TSPC IJ SIDO IJ ROTI IJ KAEF IJ MIKA IJ SILO IJ
OW BUY BUY BUY HOLD BUY BUY BUY BUY HOLD BUY BUY SELL BUY
INDUSTRIAL ESTATES DMAS IJ KIJA IJ BEST IJ SSIA IJ LPC K IJ
N BUY BUY REDUC E BUY BUY
48,198 20,662 9,647 4,705 696
10.0 68.9 41.8 68.6 57.8
44.7 2.1 11.8 10.5 14.2 6.1
12,775 2,175 2,810 681 5,282 1,828
13,561
290 270 300 720 8,300
23,512 9,881 4,897 1,949 2,870 3,915
11,841
205 237 202 610 5,625
3,031 563 6,065 2,183
3,291 743 6,939 2,589
INDUSTRY - Various KRAS IJ* ATIC IJ SRIL IJ MLPL IJ
REDUC E BUY BUY BUY
379 615 265 208
275 800 500 550
15,775 1,875 18,593 10,065
20.0 1.5 43.9 68.0
14,152 5,979 1,153 4,927 2,093
37.5 1.4 0.0 34.0 2.1
49,489 19,341 2,626 8,388 19,134
96,347 20,947 2,964 9,520 22,097
39,757 0 3,375 11,073 25,298
(1,061) (2,555) 178 1,596 (280)
70 (1,635) 217 1,812 (324)
2,047 0 263 2,156 (373)
LAND TRANSPORTATION BIRD IJ TAXI IJ ASSA IJ
UW REDUC E REDUC E BUY
5,950 92 100
4,700 120 130
2,502 2,146 3,398
15.0 49.0 37.4
15,425 14,887 197 340
4.9 0.8 4.0 0.1
7,845 5,552 953 1,340
22,802 6,250 1,009 1,552
15,612 6,988 1,074 1,779
1,621 1,197 200 224
1,802 1,298 238 266
1,918 1,354 255 308
902 840 6 55
METALS INC O IJ* ANTM IJ TINS IJ PSAB IJ* MDKA IJ*
N HOLD REDUC E REDUC E BUY BUY
1,380 353 560 940 1,900
1,400 207 411 1,400 2,200
9,936 24,031 7,448 5,292 3,570
20.5 74.2 35.0 7.4 36.2
38,122 13,712 8,483 4,171 4,974 6,782
98.4 11.9 43.3 2.0 1.2 40.0
31,900 10,486 11,890 5,632 3,892 0
29,826 10,920 13,290 5,616 4,788 0
32,767 12,230 14,812 5,725 5,628 868
2,684 1,442 (8) 60 1,274 (84)
4,061 2,100 281 28 1,792 (140)
6,925 2,891 826 29 2,717 462
897 980 (449) 16 448 (98)
OIL & GAS PGAS IJ* AKRA IJ MEDC IJ*
N REDUC E BUY BUY
2,455 7,975 680
2,500 7,000 1,300
24,242 3,949 3,332
43.0 40.1 49.0
93,272 59,513 31,494 2,266
141.2 71.4 68.1 1.7
66,063 40,166 19,344 6,553
74,087 41,538 23,231 9,318
84,807 46,380 27,077 11,351
9,896 8,302 1,345 249
12,465 8,134 2,043 2,288
14,902 9,606 2,014 3,282
PLANTATIONS AALI IJ SIMP IJ LSIP IJ DSNG IJ ANJT IJ* SGRO IJ TBLA IJ
N REDUC E HOLD BUY BUY REDUC E HOLD BUY
16,200 352 1,425 470 1,700 1,800 495
14,300 290 1,500 535 1,000 1,800 570
1,575 15,816 6,823 10,599 3,336 1,890 5,342
20.3 21.6 40.4 34.1 10.1 33.0 45.6
57,499 25,511 5,567 9,723 4,981 5,670 3,402 2,644
50.1 22.7 1.3 23.8 0.3 0.1 1.7 0.1
39,836 13,566 13,243 3,988 4,366 1,746 2,928 5,251
41,373 13,873 13,632 4,117 4,783 1,864 3,105 5,237
43,698 15,215 13,840 4,384 4,941 2,063 3,255 6,526
5,264 1,569 1,470 622 431 175 441 557
5,814 1,804 1,534 659 536 215 504 562
N BUY BUY BUY
3,740 775 1,330
3,500 880 1,700
16,398 10,661 2,239
44.5 42.5 58.7
72,568 61,329 8,262 2,978
33.0 26.4 4.9 1.7
68,492 32,909 30,705 4,878
77,643 38,526 33,937 5,181
87,631 44,678 37,146 5,807
4,809 3,416 1,198 195
PROPERTY BSDE IJ LPKR IJ PWON IJ SMRA IJ C TRA IJ ASRI IJ APLN IJ C TRP IJ PPRO IJ
UW BUY REDUC E HOLD BUY BUY REDUC E REDUC E REDUC E HOLD
1,765 995 472 1,585 1,315 333 316 375 189
2,020 1,130 490 1,820 1,400 300 220 365 180
19,247 23,078 48,160 14,427 15,331 19,649 20,501 6,256 14,044
35.4 94.7 47.8 67.7 69.5 48.5 27.1 44.7 35.0
140,712 33,970 22,962 22,731 22,866 20,160 6,543 6,478 2,346 2,654
270.4 26.7 88.9 27.6 50.1 15.8 38.8 3.3 1.8 17.4
46,269 6,389 9,111 4,837 6,150 7,232 3,107 5,594 2,360 1,489
51,109 7,523 11,042 5,373 6,622 8,154 3,039 5,769 1,917 1,671
54,838 8,403 10,731 6,220 7,140 9,335 3,061 5,934 2,162 1,852
SHIPPING SOC I IJ TMAS IJ WINS IJ
N BUY BUY HOLD
429 1,875 112
630 3,000 190
7,059 1,141 4,038
15.0 13.5 42.3
5,684 3,092 2,139 452
8.8 8.4 0.2 0.1
3,198 134 1,700 1,364
3,523 163 1,810 1,551
3,430 3,975 6,125 4,205 5,500 650 555
3,750 4,400 6,500 5,000 6,800 1,180 850
100,800 8,541 4,797 10,203 5,434 7,123 2,900
48.8 33.6 47.8 67.3 20.7 23.0 39.7
226.8 198,093 223,225 189.7 102,143 113,031 8.9 22,754 23,798 9.0 3,437 3,801 1.9 4,415 4,845 3.6 26,249 28,395 9.0 20,524 29,578 4.7 18,569 19,777 2,981 1,688,906 1,856,409
488,104 345,744 33,952 29,379 42,903 29,887 4,630 1,610 4,043,713
PER (x) 2016F 8.1 7.3 18.4
(17.0) (12.6) na na
N HOLD BUY BUY BUY REDUC E REDUC E REDUC E BUY REDUC E
TELCOS OW TLKM IJ BUY EXC L IJ BUY TBIG IJ HOLD TOWR IJ BUY ISAT IJ BUY TELE IJ BUY ERAA IJ BUY Market N Note: *USD reporting OW: Overweight, N: Neutral, UW: Underweight
2015F 12.9 11.9 21.1
20,271 19,543 292 436
CONSUMER - DISCRE. SC MA IJ LPPF IJ MNC N IJ MPPA IJ AC ES IJ HERO IJ RALS IJ MAPI IJ EC II IJ
POULTRY C PIN IJ JPFA IJ MAIN IJ
EPS growth (%) 2016F 2017F 33.5 19.2 63.8 26.7 14.6 12.5
na na 12.2
17,779 17,591 126 62
N BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY
9,998 2,192 2,868 2,724 738 704 (113) 246 608 31
2015F
2015 Global Banking & Finance Review Best Research House
16,030 16,764 (312) (422)
CONS. & TOLL ROADS JSMR IJ WIKA IJ PTPP IJ WSKT IJ WTON IJ ADHI IJ TOTL IJ
8,650 1,997 2,474 2,580 567 648 (215) 218 399 (17)
2015 Institutional Investors Highest Ranked Local Research House
Alpha Southeast Asia 2014 Best Research Call FMCG Sector
958 870 19 69
982 877 22 83
0.6 (0.0) (95.0) 29.0
6.3 3.6 228.6 24.0
na na 32.1 0.0 na 2.4 0.7 14.9 20.5
3.2 3.9 2.9 0.4 3.0 (8.9)
17.1 17.7 33.8 6.1
16.1 17.1 10.3 4.9
15.7 17.0 8.9 4.1
8.5 8.7 4.1 3.7
7.9 8.1 3.8 3.7
7.6 7.7 3.8 3.5
3.6 3.7 0.2 0.4
3.2 3.3 0.2 0.4
2.8 2.9 0.2 0.3
2.3 2.3 0.5 4.9
2.4 2.3 1.8 6.1
2.5 2.4 2.0 7.3
48.1 43.0 197.5 186.8
54.4 48.9 214.0 206.4
61.3 55.4 239.7 214.4
9.9 3.8 20.4 13.8 5.3 na
7.3 2.9 13.8 12.4 3.8 na
5.1 2.3 8.1 11.5 2.3 na
0.7 0.6 0.5 0.8 1.1 3.8
0.6 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.9 4.3
0.6 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.8 3.8
1.9 4.3 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
3.0 6.8 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
3.0 6.5 0.6 0.0 0.0 1.0
28.8 nc 38.7 39.4 82.5 7.7
27.0 nc 46.7 39.3 57.4 75.0
24.8 nc 49.5 41.9 36.4 53.5
1,942 1,498 (172) 14 812 (210)
4,149 2,117 228 (31) 1,597 238
(60.1) (53.6) (76.5) (97.9) 59.8 58.3
116.5 59.2 (63.2) (13.2) 83.6 na
113.7 36.6 (237.9) (319.9) 96.3 na
42.5 14.1 na 267.3 12.9 na
19.6 8.8 na 307.9 7.0 na
9.2 6.5 na (140.0) 3.6 na
2.8 4.2 (3.1) 0.3 10.8 (9.0)
4.5 6.0 (1.0) 0.3 13.6 (10.2)
6,507 5,821 1,047 (361)
7,732 6,060 1,495 177
9,248 7,419 1,535 295
(34.2) (42.5) 28.1 (391.9)
18.8 4.1 42.8 (150.9)
19.6 22.4 2.7 0.0
14.3 11.0 30.0 NA
12.1 10.5 21.0 12.4
10.1 8.6 20.4 12.4
11.1 6.3 20.4 8.5
8.7 6.0 14.3 4.2
7.9 4.8 13.9 4.0
2.6 1.4 5.1 0.2
2.3 1.3 4.3 0.2
2.0 1.2 3.7 0.2
3.5 5.0 1.3 (6.4)
4.0 5.2 1.9 3.2
4.8 6.4 2.0 3.1
16.4 nc 40.9 108.5
16.8 nc 40.9 124.5
11.9 nc 24.1 156.0
15.1 14.1 18.2 (3.0)
15.5 12.5 22.3 1.4
6,469 2,087 1,484 726 592 267 568 745
2,051 638 235 548 171 18 252 189
2,656 978 267 573 247 82 282 227
3,824 1,645 380 617 306 132 316 427
(65.3) (74.5) (72.1) (40.2) (73.7) na (25.8) (59.8)
29.5 53.4 13.8 4.6 44.2 na 11.8 20.3
43.9 68.3 42.3 7.6 24.0 na 11.8 88.0
28.0 40.0 23.7 17.7 29.1 na 13.5 14.0
21.6 26.1 20.8 17.0 20.2 67.5 12.0 11.6
15.0 15.5 14.7 15.8 16.3 43.3 10.8 6.2
11.3 13.0 4.6 10.3 14.8 11.1 7.6 7.1
10.3 11.8 4.5 9.8 12.9 10.1 7.0 6.9
8.5 10.5 4.6 9.1 12.1 0.0 6.5 5.8
1.8 2.3 0.4 1.3 2.1 1.6 1.1 1.0
1.7 2.2 0.4 1.3 1.9 1.6 1.0 1.0
1.5 2.0 0.4 1.2 1.8 1.5 1.0 0.8
1.5 1.1 1.3 2.3 0.9 1.1 3.7 1.4
1.9 1.7 1.4 2.4 1.2 1.5 4.1 1.7
2.6 2.9 2.0 2.5 1.5 1.5 4.6 3.2
52.5 65.4 44.9 nc 132.3 14.6 64.6 147.0
58.4 74.7 50.7 nc 136.0 17.0 71.7 148.6
56.7 73.9 53.9 nc 134.1 0.0 76.0 138.7
5.4 5.7 1.7 7.5 7.4 0.4 8.3 7.6
6,368 4,268 1,742 357
7,750 5,341 1,953 456
2,434 1,885 519 29
3,697 2,810 653 234
4,953 3,746 901 306
22.0 7.9 na na
51.9 49.1 na 553.5
34.0 33.3 na 31.0
29.8 32.5 na 83.3
19.6 21.8 12.6 12.8
14.7 16.4 9.2 9.7
16.0 17.1 9.1 13.0
13.0 14.0 7.0 8.6
10.5 11.2 6.4 7.2
4.5 5.0 1.5 2.1
3.8 4.2 1.4 1.8
3.2 3.5 1.2 1.6
0.7 0.8 0.0 0.2
1.0 0.9 1.4 1.6
1.4 1.3 1.9 2.1
52.9 39.1 138.9 99.2
48.1 34.4 133.8 91.9
39.1 25.9 121.6 81.8
15,769 2,957 2,215 2,411 1,948 2,114 1,770 1,349 643 363
17,253 3,457 2,801 2,656 2,101 2,288 1,674 1,351 513 412
18,587 3,804 2,861 3,035 2,273 2,511 1,649 1,415 576 462
9,724 2,299 1,240 1,588 1,259 1,281 774 609 412 262
11,183 2,694 1,860 1,790 1,357 1,380 877 649 295 281
12,448 3,023 2,046 2,118 1,456 1,517 954 660 338 337
(30.8) (42.5) (51.3) (36.9) (9.1) (3.3) (29.5) (28.8) 2.8 60.4
15.0 17.2 50.0 12.7 7.8 7.7 13.2 6.7 (28.4) 7.5
11.3 12.2 10.0 18.3 7.3 10.0 8.8 1.7 14.5 19.7
14.5 14.8 18.5 14.3 18.2 15.7 8.5 10.6 5.7 10.1
12.6 12.6 12.3 12.7 16.8 14.6 7.5 10.0 8.0 9.4
11.3 11.2 11.2 10.7 15.7 13.3 6.9 9.8 6.9 7.9
10.5 12.0 11.9 9.2 12.2 9.2 7.0 5.8 7.3 8.4
9.6 10.4 10.0 8.5 11.5 8.6 7.6 6.4 9.7 8.4
8.9 9.6 9.6 7.5 10.7 7.8 7.9 6.2 9.1 7.1
2.1 2.0 1.4 3.0 3.0 2.4 1.0 0.9 0.5 1.2
1.9 1.7 1.3 2.5 2.6 2.1 0.9 0.9 0.5 1.1
1.6 1.5 1.2 2.1 2.3 1.8 0.8 0.8 0.5 1.0
1.2 0.7 1.3 1.0 1.2 1.0 2.4 1.9 5.3 3.0
1.4 0.8 2.0 1.0 1.2 1.1 3.0 2.0 3.8 3.2
1.6 0.9 2.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 3.5 2.0 4.3 3.8
40.3 27.3 50.0 33.8 56.9 18.4 93.9 46.6 70.2 29.0
42.8 29.4 52.2 33.6 56.9 20.9 93.7 64.2 80.4 45.3
3,911 170 2,056 1,685
455 42 378 34
815 56 520 240
996 59 659 278
312 38 332 (58)
516 45 425 46
709 45 571 93
(38.1) (20.4) 63.7 (118.9)
65.1 21.6 28.2 (182.5)
37.4 (4.1) 34.3 96.4
18.2 5.7 6.4 (7.8)
11.0 4.6 5.0 9.5
8.0 4.8 3.7 4.8
34.0 58.0 5.3 5.5
26.7 46.0 4.0 3.2
24.9 43.3 3.0 2.4
1.5 0.8 2.8 0.2
1.1 0.7 2.0 0.2
0.9 0.6 1.4 0.2
3.8 4.6 3.9 (1.9)
4.9 5.3 5.0 1.6
6.1 6.2 6.7 3.1
78.8 65.5 99.5 71.5
246,852 124,788 25,507 4,229 5,315 30,758 34,851 21,403 2,045,745
42,543 32,141 1,186 2,637 2,493 2,953 758 375 301,595
48,548 36,256 1,393 2,915 2,866 3,799 905 412 335,956
55,773 41,388 1,691 3,243 3,274 4,637 1,074 466 378,529
17,097 15,778 (128) 1,056 986 (1,187) 382 210 203,278
23,051 17,773 351 1,289 1,591 1,334 462 252 233,323
28,654 20,468 1,024 1,593 2,133 2,545 592 299 266,587
17.6 7.8 na (18.8) 17.3 40.3 25.2 (0.6) (7.5)
34.8 12.6 na 22.0 61.3 19.9 21.0 19.8 13.6
24.3 15.2 na 23.0 34.1 46.2 28.3 18.7 14.3
28.5 21.9 na 27.8 43.5 NA 12.0 7.7 19.9
21.2 19.5 na 22.8 27.0 22.4 9.9 6.4 17.3
17.0 16.9 na 18.4 20.1 11.7 7.7 5.4 15.2
9.9 9.7 6.9 16.6 13.3 4.2 8.7 6.3 13.8
8.8 8.7 6.1 15.2 11.7 3.5 8.5 5.7 12.7
7.8 7.4 5.6 16.2 10.2 2.8 9.5 4.8 11.1
4.9 4.6 2.4 10.1 7.7 2.4 1.6 0.5 9.9
4.3 4.2 2.4 7.3 6.0 2.1 1.4 0.5 8.7
3.7 3.8 2.3 5.5 4.7 1.7 1.3 0.5 7.7
2.2 3.0 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 2.1 5.2 2.0
2.5 3.3 0.0 0.9 0.0 1.3 2.5 6.3 2.2
3.0 3.8 0.0 1.1 0.0 2.5 3.2 7.4 2.5
75.8 8.4 168.7 647.2 112.9 138.9 64.1 33.4 20.8
7.6 8.1 1.3 (0.6) 23.9 11.4
0.9 (5.1) 4.4 7.8 (0.2) 10.9 11.3 0.6 2.4
11.0 11.3 (1.6) (3.6) na na na na na na na na na na na
1.6 (4.7) 5.2 9.0 (0.0)
(0.5) (8.9) 6.4 8.4 (0.9)
9.5 9.7 0.6 2.6
15.9 16.1 0.2 2.3
1.5 3.1 (1.8) 0.2 3.6 (4.6)
2.9 4.7 (0.6) 0.2 6.2 (6.9)
5.0 6.6 0.8 (0.3) 12.2 6.5
1.7 4.5 (2.2) 0.2 5.1
15.8 14.3 19.6 2.2
6.5 6.6 7.1 (1.0)
7.2 6.4 9.1 0.4
7.7 7.6 8.3 0.7
10.9 10.7 12.1 (1.4)
7.1 8.5 1.9 7.6 10.0 1.6 8.9 8.6
9.7 13.3 2.6 7.8 11.4 2.5 9.5 14.6
3.2 3.2 0.8 6.2 2.3 0.3 4.4 2.5
3.9 4.3 0.8 6.3 3.1 1.1 4.6 2.8
5.1 6.6 1.2 6.5 3.5 1.8 4.8 4.8
15.0 16.2 10.1 2.3
19.6 20.9 11.6 15.1
22.0 23.3 14.3 17.4
7.8 8.8 3.3 0.8
10.8 11.9 3.9 6.0
39.8 29.5 46.6 29.0 52.4 19.1 90.1 64.2 81.8 34.4
15.6 14.0 7.7 23.1 21.2 16.0 12.0 9.2 9.2 16.3
15.4 14.5 10.8 21.5 19.4 15.1 12.3 9.2 6.2 12.4
15.0 14.2 10.9 21.1 17.9 14.6 12.1 8.7 6.8 13.5
6.1 7.3 3.1 8.8 7.3 5.1 4.4 2.4 4.2 7.1
63.3 62.9 64.6 59.6
48.6 58.4 35.5 44.3
24.5 10.3 50.7 (2.0)
24.6 13.6 45.4 1.7
29.7 23.9 43.6 3.4
52.7 3.4 134.3 481.2 64.3 90.1 74.4 31.2 18.9
37.1 (2.5) 118.9 365.6 25.4 90.1 74.4 26.8 16.3
18.7 22.1 (0.9) 30.7 19.2 (9.1) 14.4 7.0 31.7
21.4 22.6 2.5 37.3 25.0 10.0 15.4 7.9 29.1
22.7 23.6 7.0 33.9 26.2 16.1 17.4 8.9 29.1
1.5 (6.0) 9.8 9.5 (0.6) 13.7 13.9 0.7 2.5 3.2 6.4 (0.7) 0.2 8.1
11.8 11.9 0.7 2.8 4.8 8.9 0.9 (0.4) 16.3
11.2 9.1 15.8 0.6
11.9 10.8 14.8 0.9
4.1 3.8 1.1 8.9 3.4 0.3 5.3 3.3
4.8 5.0 1.3 8.6 4.3 1.4 5.3 3.5
6.2 7.6 1.7 8.6 4.8 2.1 5.5 6.0
12.8 14.1 5.1 7.6
10.0 11.2 4.3 1.1
13.8 15.3 4.9 7.8
16.3 17.9 6.3 9.3
6.1 7.3 4.2 8.5 6.8 4.9 4.6 2.3 2.6 5.5
6.0 7.2 4.3 8.7 6.4 4.8 4.7 2.0 2.8 5.5
11.7 11.9 5.3 17.6 13.9 13.7 6.2 6.5 5.8 13.4
11.1 11.3 7.1 16.1 12.4 12.6 6.4 5.9 3.5 9.0
10.9 11.0 7.3 16.1 11.6 12.2 6.3 5.3 3.8 9.7
9.0 3.6 18.8 (0.8)
11.3 6.2 21.0 0.7
16.1 12.2 24.8 1.4
13.5 13.4 23.4 (1.3)
9.2 9.0 25.3 1.0
9.9 9.7 29.5 2.2
8.1 10.4 (0.2) 4.5 5.4 (2.2) 6.5 3.3 12.2
8.9 10.7 0.6 5.1 8.4 2.5 6.5 3.8 11.9
10.0 11.5 1.8 5.8 11.2 4.9 7.6 4.3 12.4
15.3 20.4 (0.3) 4.9 8.3 (3.8) 6.1 5.1 26.6
17.1 21.4 1.1 5.5 13.6 4.7 7.0 5.9 26.6
19.6 23.5 3.1 6.4 18.5 9.8 5.9 6.8 26.6
Source: Bloomberg, Bahana estimates
PT Bahana Securities – Equity Research – Bahana Beacon - The Daily
2.5 (5.6) 11.5 11.4 (0.1)
7
Asiamoney's 2013 Best Domestic Equity House
2014 Finance Asia's Best Equity House
Alpha Southeast Asia 2014 Best Research Call FMCG Sector
2015 Institutional Investors Highest Ranked Local Research House
2015 Global Banking & Finance Review Best Research House
FULL YEAR 2015 EARNINGS RELEASE (ESTIMATED) Ticker BBRI IJ BBNI IJ BDMN IJ BJTM IJ JSMR IJ EXCL IJ BMRI IJ ITMG IJ LPPF IJ AALI IJ BBTN IJ ASII IJ UNTR IJ INCO IJ LSIP IJ WSKT IJ ADHI IJ ANJT IJ HERO IJ JPFA IJ IMAS IJ SMBR IJ SIMP IJ SMGR IJ ANTM IJ PTBA IJ ANTM IJ TBIG IJ BBCA IJ PTPP IJ PGAS IJ BTPN IJ TLKM IJ MPPA IJ TINS IJ KAEF IJ SMCB IJ ADRO IJ BJBR IJ WTON IJ KRAS IJ WINS IJ INTP IJ TOTL IJ WIKA IJ BSDE IJ HMSP IJ INDF IJ AKRA IJ GIAA IJ SRIL IJ PWON IJ LPCK IJ TBLA IJ MDLN IJ LPKR IJ SCMA IJ TOWR IJ ROTI IJ SIDO IJ SILO IJ BIRD IJ KLBF IJ GGRM IJ CPIN IJ
Corporate Bank Rakyat Indonesia Bank Negara Indonesia Bank Danamon Bank Pembangunan Daerah Jawa Timur Jasa Marga XL Axiata Bank Mandiri Indo Tambangraya Megah Matahari Department Store Astra Agro Lestari Bank Tabungan Negara Astra International United Tractors Vale Indonesia PP London Sumatera Indonesia Waskita Karya Adhi Karya Austindo Nusantara Jaya Hero Supermarket Japfa Indomobil Sukses International Semen Baturaja Salim Invomas Pratama Semen Indonesia Aneka Tambang Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Aneka Tambang Tower Bersama Infrastructure Bank Central Asia PP Persero Perusahaan Gas Negara Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional Telekomunikasi Indonesia Matahari Putra Prima Timah Persero Kimia Farma Holcim Indonesia Adaro Energy Bank Pembangunan Daerah Jawa Barat Wijaya Karta Beton Krakatau Steel Wintermar Offshore Indocement Tunggal Perkasa Total Bangun Persada Wijaya Karya Bumi Serpong Damai H M Sampoerna Indofood Sukses Makmur AKR Corporindo Garuda Indonesia Sri Rejeki Isman Pakuwon Jati Lippo Cikarang Tunas Baru Lampung Modernland Realty Lippo Karawaci Surya Citra Media Sarana Menara Nusantara Nippon Indosari Corpindo Industri Jamu dan Farmasi Sido Muncul Siloam International Hospitals Blue Bird Kalbe Farma Gudang Garam Charoen Pokphand Indonesia
Date 1/26/2016 1/29/2016 1/29/2016 1/29/2016 2/5/2016 2/5/2016 2/9/2016 2/16/2016 2/17/2016 2/23/2016 2/24/2016 2/24/2016 2/24/2016 2/24/2016 2/25/2016 2/25/2016 2/25/2016 2/25/2016 2/26/2016 2/26/2016 2/26/2016 2/26/2016 2/26/2016 2/29/2016 2/29/2016 3/1/2016 3/1/2016 3/2/2016 3/3/2016 3/3/2016 3/3/2016 3/3/2016 3/4/2016 3/4/2016 3/4/2016 3/4/2016 3/7/2016 3/8/2016 3/8/2016 3/10/2016 3/11/2016 3/11/2016 3/16/2016 3/16/2016 3/17/2016 3/17/2016 3/17/2016 3/18/2016 3/18/2016 3/21/2016 3/23/2016 3/24/2016 3/24/2016 3/24/2016 3/24/2016 3/24/2016 3/24/2016 3/24/2016 3/24/2016 3/24/2016 3/24/2016 3/24/2016 3/28/2016 3/29/2016 3/30/2016
PT Bahana Securities – Equity Research – Bahana Beacon - The Daily
Time 16:00 16:00 16:00 16:00 09:00 16:00 16:00 16:00 16:00 16:00 8
Asiamoney's 2013 Best Domestic Equity House
2014 Finance Asia's Best Equity House
Alpha Southeast Asia 2014 Best Research Call FMCG Sector
2015 Institutional Investors Highest Ranked Local Research House
2015 Global Banking & Finance Review Best Research House
FULL YEAR 2015 EARNINGS RELEASE (ESTIMATED) Ticker GJTL IJ MYOR IJ SMRA IJ UNVR IJ KIJA IJ ISAT IJ MEDC IJ CTRA IJ SSIA IJ PSAB IJ TMAS IJ MNCN IJ MAIN IJ ASRI IJ HRUM IJ CASS IJ ERAA IJ TELE IJ TAXI IJ ASSA IJ SOCI IJ PPRO IJ DMAS IJ MIKA IJ MDKA IJ ATIC IJ
Corporate Gajah Tunggal Mayora Indah Summarecon Agung Unilever Indonesia Kawasan Industri Jababeka Indosat Medco Energi International Ciputra Development Surya Semesta Internusa J Resources Asia Pasifik Pelayaran Tempuran Emas Media Nusantara Citra Malindo Feedmill Alam Sutera Harum Energy Cardig Aero Service Erajaya Swasembada Tiphone Mobile Indonesia Express Transindo Utama Adi Sarana Armada Soechi Lines PP Properti Puradelta Lestari Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat Merdeka Copper Gold Anabatic Technologies
Date 3/30/2016 3/30/2016 3/30/2016 3/30/2016 3/30/2016 3/30/2016 3/30/2016 3/30/2016 3/30/2016 3/30/2016 3/30/2016 3/30/2016 3/30/2016 3/30/2016 3/30/2016 3/30/2016 3/30/2016 3/30/2016 3/30/2016 3/30/2016 3/30/2016 3/31/2016 3/31/2016 3/31/2016 3/31/2016 3/31/2016
Time -
Source: Bloomberg, Bahana
PT Bahana Securities – Equity Research – Bahana Beacon - The Daily
9
Asiamoney's 2013 Best Domestic Equity House
2014 Finance Asia's Best Equity House
Alpha Southeast Asia 2014 Best Research Call FMCG Sector
2015 Institutional Investors Highest Ranked Local Research House
2015 Global Banking & Finance Review Best Research House
AGM & EGM SCHEDULE Corporate Actions AEGM AEGM AEGM AEGM AEGM AEGM AEGM AEGM AEGM AEGM AGM AEGM AGM AGM AGM AGM AEGM AGM AEGM AEGM AGM AEGM AGM AEGM AGM AEGM AEGM AEGM Source: Bloomberg
Ticker KREN IJ ASDM IJ GSMF IJ SRAJ IJ PTSP IJ CLPI IJ UNSP IJ DGIK IJ INTD IJ APII IJ ARGO IJ MGNA IJ RICY IJ JPRS IJ SRSN IJ KONI IJ AISA IJ GDST IJ MBTO IJ ADMG IJ BTON IJ OKAS IJ POOL IJ POLY IJ ALDO IJ RIMO IJ RANC IJ ALTO IJ
Corporate Kresna Graha Sekurindo Asuransi Dayin Mitra Equity Development Investment Sejahteraraya Anugrahjaya Pioneerindo Gourmet International Colorpak Indonesia Bakrie Sumatera Plantations Nusa Konstruksi Enjiniring Inter Delta Arita Prima Indonesia Argo Pantes Magna Finance Ricky Putra Globalindo Jaya Pari Steel Indo Acidatama Perdana Bangun Pusaka Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Food Gunawan Dianjaya Steel Martina Berto Polychem Indonesia Betonjaya Manunggal Ancora Indonesia Resources Pool Advista Indonesia Asia Pacific Fibers Alkindo Naratama Rimo Catur Lestari Supra Boga Lestari Tri Banyan Tirta
PT Bahana Securities – Equity Research – Bahana Beacon - The Daily
Date 6/15/2015 6/15/2015 6/15/2015 6/15/2015 6/15/2015 6/15/2015 6/15/2015 6/15/2015 6/15/2015 6/15/2015 6/15/2015 6/15/2015 6/15/2015 6/16/2015 6/16/2015 6/16/2015 6/16/2015 6/16/2015 6/16/2015 6/16/2015 6/16/2015 6/16/2015 6/16/2015 6/16/2015 6/16/2015 6/17/2015 6/17/2015 6/17/2015
Time 14:00 08:00 10:30 10:00 10:00 10:00 10:00 09:00 10:00 09:00 10:00 14:00 09:30 10:00 14:00 09:00 10:00 09:00 10:00 14:00 09:30 10:00 11:00 10:30 13:30 14:00 14:00 11:30
10
Asiamoney's 2013 Best Domestic Equity House
2014 Finance Asia's Best Equity House
Alpha Southeast Asia 2014 Best Research Call FMCG Sector
2015 Institutional Investors Highest Ranked Local Research House
2015 Global Banking & Finance Review Best Research House
Actual and upcoming IPOs, 2013-2015 No
Code
1 BBRM 2 HOTL 3 SAME 4 MAGP 5 TPMA 6 ISSP 7 DYAN 8 ANJT 9 NOBU 10 MPMX 11 DSNG 12 SRIL 13 ACST 14 SRTG 15 NRCA 16 SMBR 17 ECII 18 BBMD 19 MLPT 20 VICO 21 CPGT 22 NAGA 23 BMAS 24 SILO 25 APII 26 KRAH 27 IMJS 28 LEAD 29 SSMS 30 SIDO 2013 total 31 PNBS 32 ASMI 33 CANI 34 BINA 35 BALI 36 WTON 37 BLTZ 38 MDIA 39 LRNA 40 DAJK 41 LINK 42 CINT 43 MGNA 44 BPII 45 MBAP 46 TARA 47 DNAR 48 BIRD 49 SOCI 50 IMPC 51 IBFN 52 AGRS 53 GOLL 2014 total 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 2015 total
Date
Company name
Industry
01/08/13 01/10/13 01/11/13 01/16/13 02/20/13 02/22/13 03/25/13 05/08/13 05/20/13 05/29/13 06/14/13 06/17/13 06/24/13 06/26/13 06/27/13 06/28/13 07/03/13 07/08/13 07/08/13 07/08/13 07/09/13 07/09/13 07/11/13 09/12/13 10/29/13 11/08/13 12/10/13 12/11/13 12/12/13 12/18/13
Pelayaran Nasional Bina Buana Saraswati Griya Lestari Sarana Meditama Metropolitan Multi Agro Gemilang Trans Power Marine Steel Pipe Industry of Indonesia Dyandra Media International Austindo Nusantara Jaya Bank Nationalnobu Mitra Pinasthika Mustika Dharma Satya Nusantara Sri Rejeki Isman (Sritex) Acset Indonesia Saratoga Investa Sedaya Nusa Raya Cipta Semen Baturaja Electronic City Indonesia Bank Mestika Dharma Multipolar Technology Victoria Investama Cipaganti group Bank Mitraniaga Bank Maspion Siloam Hospital Arita Prima Indonesia Grand Kartech Indomobil Multi Jasa Logindo Samudramakmur Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Sido Muncul
Shipping Hotel Hospital Management Plantations Transportation Pipes manufacturer Entertainment Plantation Banking Automotive Plantations Textile Construction Finance Construction Cement Retail Banking IT Finance Transportation Banking Banking Hospital Pipe Manufacture Manufacturing Auto finance Marine services Plantations Pharmaceutical
01/15/14 01/16/14 01/16/14 01/16/14 03/13/14 04/08/14 04/10/14 04/11/14 04/15/14 05/14/14 02/06/14 06/27/14 07/07/14 07/08/14 07/10/14 07/11/14 07/11/14 11/05/14 12/03/14 12/17/14 12/22/14 12/22/14 12/23/14
Bank Panin Syariah Mitra Maparya Capitol Nusantara Bank INA Bali Towerindo Sentra Wika Beton Graha Layar Prima Intermedia Capital Eka Sari Lorena Transport Dwi Aneka Jaya Kemasindo Link Net Chitose Internasional Magna Finance Batavia Prosperindo Internasional Mitrabara Adiperdana Sitara Propertindo Bank Dinar Blue Bird Soechi Lines Impack Pratama Industri Intan Baruprana Finance Bank Agris Golden Plantation
Banking Insurance Transporation Banking Construction Construction material Entertainment Entertainment Transportation Paper manufacture Telecommunication Manufacture Finance Finance Coal Property Bank Transportation Shipping Packaging Finance Banking Plantation
Airasia Indonesia Andira Agro Asia Mangan Group Bank DKI Bank Kesejahteraan Ekonomi Bank Muamalat Bank Sumatera Utara Bank Syariah Mandiri Daya Mitra Telekomunikasi Daya Mandiri Resources Indonesia GMF Aero Asia Target Indoprima Gemilang Infomedia Nusantara Intan Baruprana Finance Kawasan Berikat Nusantara Krakatau Wijatama Pacific Agro Sentosa Pegadaian Indonesia Pelita Cengkareng Paper Perkebunan Nusantara III, IV and VII Pertamina Drilling Services Indonesia Pertamina Hulu Energi Pertamina Gas Pertamina Geothermal Energy PLN Batam Pos Indonesia Pos Logistik Puradelta Lestari Semen Batam Siba Surya Sriboga Raturaya
Airlines Plantations Mining Banking Banking Banking Banking Banking Telecommunication Coal mining Aero services Auto-parts Services Multi-finance Industrial estates Steel manufacture Plantations Finance Packaging manufacture Plantations Oil-related Oil-related Gas distribution Electricity Electricity Logistics Logistics Property Cement Logistics Restaurant
Amount (IDRbn) 138 102 72 440 91 856 449 400 808 1,455 509 1,344 375 1,492 260 1,309 1,350 593 180 150 69 80 246 1,405 61 45 225 357 1,005 870 16,735 475 109 42 125 35 1,207 223 541 135 470 487 99 74 75 319 424 55 2,438 582 570 192 99 230 9,016 1,800
Public (%) 13.2 15.5 13.6 66.7 9.0 29.6 22.4 10.0 52.5 21.7 13.0 30.1 31.0 10.0 12.3 23.8 25.0 20.0 18.0 16.3 10.0 27.3 20.0 13.5 25.6 16.9 10.4 19.8 15.8 10.0
458
55.0
49.3 29.0 25.0 24.8 14.7 30.0 31.3 15.0 20.0 40.0 10.0 34.0 70.0 100.0 22.0 40.0 22.2 100.0 15.0 31.0 21.0 100.0 21.8 20.0
800 49.0
1,000
2,760 500 500 7,818
Source: various media (Bloomberg, Kontan, Bisnis Indonesia, Investor Daily, Jakarta Globe, Jakarta Post, Kompas, Indonesian Finance Today)
PT Bahana Securities – Equity Research – Bahana Beacon - The Daily
11
Asiamoney's 2013 Best Domestic Equity House
2014 Finance Asia's Best Equity House
Alpha Southeast Asia 2014 Best Research Call FMCG Sector
2015 Institutional Investors Highest Ranked Local Research House
2015 Global Banking & Finance Review Best Research House
Research: +62 21 250 5081 Harry Su
[email protected] Senior Associate Director Head of Corporate Strategy & Research Consumer, Strategy ext 3600 direct: +62 21 250 5735
Fakhrul Fulvian
[email protected] Economist ext 3602
Sanni Satrio Dwi Utomo
[email protected] Research Analyst Industrial Estate, Property ext 3611
Muhammad Wafi
[email protected] Technical Analyst ext 3609
Made Ayu Wijayati
[email protected] Research Executive ext 3607
Dealing Room: +62 21 527 0808 (Foreign Institutional)
Natalia Surjadiputra
[email protected]
Director of Sales & Client Relationship Management ext 2500
Amelia Husada
[email protected] Vice President Institutional Equity Sales ext 2552
Bram Taarea
[email protected] Institutional Equity Sales ext 2524
Teguh Hartanto
[email protected] Associate Director Deputy Head of Research Banks, Cement, Aviation ext 3610
Bob Setiadi
[email protected] Research Analyst Cement, Infratructure,Toll roads ext 3605
Renaldy Effendy
[email protected] Research Analyst Consumer, Healthcare ext 3606
Nyoman Widita Prabawa
[email protected] Research Associate ext 3623
Zefanya Halim
[email protected] CA Manager ext 3612
Leonardo Henry Gavaza, CFA
[email protected] Senior Research Manager Auto, Heavy equipment, Telco ext 3608
Agustinus Reza Kirana
[email protected] Research Analyst Plantations, Shipping, Transportation ext 3616
Jozabad Jonathan
[email protected] Research Analyst Poultry ext 3620
Sarah Jessica Hutapea
[email protected] Research Associate ext 3693
Senior Equity Institutional Sales ext 2545
John M. Dasaad
[email protected] Institutional Equity Sales ext 2549
Nurul Farida
[email protected] Institutional Equity Sales ext 2547
Bagus Adi Yoga Prawira
[email protected] Research Analyst Consumer, Media ext 3604
Melvin Mikha Reminov
[email protected] Research Associate ext 3621
Gilang Purnama
[email protected] Research Associate ext 3601
Novianty Permata Sari
[email protected] CA ext 3618
+62 21 250 5508 (Domestic Institutional)
Inca Aditya
[email protected]
Arandi Ariantara
[email protected] Research Analyst Coal, Metals, Oil & Gas ext 3619
+62 31 535 2788 (Surabaya Branch)
Ashish Agrawal
[email protected] Vice President Institutional Equity Sales ext 2550 / 2553
Reynard Poernawan
[email protected] Institutional Equity Sales ext 2528
Ari Santosa
[email protected] Sales Trader ext 2554
Yohanes Adhi Handoko
[email protected] Manager, Surabaya Branch ext 7250
Suwardi Widjaja
[email protected] Institutional Equity Sales ext 2548
Hanna Marionda
[email protected] Sales Trader ext 2525
Adriana Kosasih
[email protected] Sales Executive ext 2541
Head Office Graha Niaga, 19th Floor Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 58 Jakarta 12190 Indonesia Tel. 62 21 250 5081 Fax. 62 21 522 6049
http://www.bahana.co.id
PT Bahana Securities – Equity Research – Bahana Beacon - The Daily
Surabaya Branch Wisma BII, Ground Floor Jl. Pemuda 60-70 Surabaya 60271 Indonesia Tel. 62 31 535 2788 Fax. 62 31 546 1157
12
Asiamoney's 2013 Best Domestic Equity House
2014 Finance Asia's Best Equity House
Alpha Southeast Asia 2014 Best Research Call FMCG Sector
2015 Institutional Investors Highest Ranked Local Research House
2015 Global Banking & Finance Review Best Research House
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Investment Banking Relationship Within the preceding 12 months, The subsidiaries and/or affiliates of Daiwa Securities Group Inc. * has lead-managed public offerings and/or secondary offerings (excluding straight bonds) of the securities of the following companies: Modern Land (China) Co. Ltd (1107 HK); econtext Asia Ltd (1390 HK); GF Securities Co Ltd (1776 HK); Mirae Asset Life Insurance Co Ltd (085620 KS); China Reinsurance Group Corporation (1508 HK). *Subsidiaries of Daiwa Securities Group Inc. for the purposes of this section shall mean any one or more of: • Daiwa Capital Markets Hong Kong Limited (大和資本市場香港有限公司) • Daiwa Capital Markets Singapore Limited • Daiwa Capital Markets Australia Limited • Daiwa Capital Markets India Private Limited • Daiwa-Cathay Capital Markets Co., Ltd. • Daiwa Securities Capital Markets Korea Co., Ltd Disclosure of Interest of Bahana Securities Investment Banking Relationship Within the preceding 12 months, Bahana Securities has lead-managed public offerings and/or secondary offerings (excluding straight bonds) of the securities of the following companies: Waskita Karya Persero Tbk PT (WSKT IJ); Adhi Karya Persero Tbk PT (ADHI IJ); PP Properti Tbk PT (PPRO IJ); Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk PT (MDKA IJ); Anabatic Technologies Tbk PT (ATIC IJ); Aneka Tambang Persero Tbk PT (ANTM IJ). Hong Kong This research is distributed in Hong Kong by Daiwa Capital Markets Hong Kong Limited (大和資本市場香港有限公司) (“DHK”) which is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. Recipients of this research in Hong Kong may contact DHK in respect of any matter arising from or in connection with this research. Relevant Relationship (DHK) DHK may from time to time have an individual employed by or associated with it serves as an officer of any of the companies under its research coverage. Singapore This research is distributed in Singapore by Daiwa Capital Markets Singapore Limited and it may only be distributed in Singapore to accredited investors, expert investors and institutional investors as defined in the Financial Advisers Regulations and the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289), as amended from time to time. By virtue of distribution to these category of investors, Daiwa Capital Markets Singapore Limited and its representatives are not required to comply with Section 36 of the Financial Advisers Act (Chapter 110) (Section 36 relates to disclosure of Daiwa Capital Markets Singapore Limited’s interest and/or its representative’s interest in securities). Recipients of this research in Singapore may contact Daiwa Capital Markets Singapore Limited in respect of any matter arising from or in connection with the research. Australia This research is distributed in Australia by Daiwa Capital Markets Australia Limited and it may only be distributed in Austra lia to wholesale investors within the meaning of the Corporations Act. Recipients of this research in Australia may contact Daiwa Capital Markets Stockbroking Limited in respect of any matter arising from or in connection with the research. India This research is distributed in India to Institutional Clients only by Daiwa Capital Markets India Private Limited (Daiwa India) which is an intermediary registered with Securities & Exchange Board of India as a Stock Broker, Merchant Bank and Research Analyst. Daiwa India, its Research Analyst and their family members and its associates do not have any financial interest save as disclosed or other undisclosed material conflict of interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies under coverage. Daiwa India and its associates may have received compensation for any products other than Investment Banking (as disclosed) or brokerage services from the subject company in this report during the past 12 months. Unless otherwise stated in BlueMatrix disclosure link at https://daiwa3.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action, Daiwa India and its associates do not hold more than 1% of any companies covered in this research report. There is no material disciplinary action against Daiwa India by any regulatory authority impacting equity research analysis activities as of the date of this report.
PT Bahana Securities – Equity Research – Bahana Beacon - The Daily
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Asiamoney's 2013 Best Domestic Equity House
2014 Finance Asia's Best Equity House
Alpha Southeast Asia 2014 Best Research Call FMCG Sector
2015 Institutional Investors Highest Ranked Local Research House
2015 Global Banking & Finance Review Best Research House
Taiwan This research is distributed in Taiwan by Daiwa-Cathay Capital Markets Co., Ltd and it may only be distributed in Taiwan to institutional investors or specific investors who have signed recommendation contracts with Daiwa-Cathay Capital Markets Co., Ltd in accordance with the Operational Regulations Governing Securities Firms Recommending Trades in Securities to Customers. Recipients of this research in Taiwan may contact Daiwa-Cathay Capital Markets Co., Ltd in respect of any matter arising from or in connection with the research. Philippines This research is distributed in the Philippines by DBP-Daiwa Capital Markets Philippines, Inc. which is regulated by the Philippines Securities and Exchange Commission and the Philippines Stock Exchange, Inc. Recipients of this research in the Philippines may contact DBP-Daiwa Capital Markets Philippines, Inc. in respect of any matter arising from or in connection with the research. DBP-Daiwa Capital Markets Philippines, Inc. recommends that investors independently assess, with a professional advisor, the specific financial risks as well as the legal, regulatory, tax, accounting, and other consequences of a proposed transaction. DBP-Daiwa Capital Markets Philippines, Inc. may have positions or may be materially interested in the securities in any of the markets mentioned in the publication or may have performed other services for the issuers of such securities. For relevant securities and trading rules please visit SEC and PSE link at http://www.sec.gov.ph/irr/AmendedIRRfinalversion.pdf and http://www.pse.com.ph/ respectively. United Kingdom This research report is produced by Daiwa Securities Co. Ltd. and/or its affiliates and is distributed in the European Union, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland. Daiwa Capital Markets Europe Limited is authorised and regulated by The Financial Conduct Authority (“FCA”) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange and Eurex. This publication is intended for investors who are not Retail Clients in the United Kingdom within the meaning of the Rules of the FCA and should not therefore be distributed to such Retail Clients in the United Kingdom. Should you enter into investment business with Daiwa Capital Markets Europe’s affiliates outside the United Kingdom, we are obliged to advise that the protection afforded by the United Kingdom regulatory system may not apply; in particular, the benefits of the Financial Services Compensation Scheme may not be available. Daiwa Capital Markets Europe Limited has in place organisational arrangements for the prevention and avoidance of conflicts of interest. Our conflict management policy is available at http://www.uk.daiwacm.com/about-us/corporate-governance-regulatory. Germany This document is distributed in Germany by Daiwa Capital Markets Europe Limited, Niederlassung Frankfurt which is regulated by BaFin (Bundesanstalt fuer Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht) for the conduct of business in Germany. Bahrain This research material is distributed by Daiwa Capital Markets Europe Limited, Bahrain Branch, regulated by The Central Bank of Bahrain and holds Investment Business Firm – Category 2 license and having its official place of business at the Bahrain World Trade Centre, South Tower, 7th floor, P.O. Box 30069, Manama, Kingdom of Bahrain. Tel No. +973 17534452 Fax No. +973 535113 This material is provided as a reference for making investment decisions and is not intended to be a solicitation for investment. Investment decisions should be made at your own discretion and risk. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to and no reliance should be placed on the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained in this document, Content herein is based on information available at the time the research material was prepared and may be amended or otherwise changed in the future without notice. All information is intended for the private use of the person to whom it is provided without any liability whatsoever on the part of Daiwa Capital Markets Europe Limited, Bahrain Branch, any associated company or the employees thereof. If you are in doubt about the suitability of the product or the research material itself, please consult your own financial adviser. Daiwa Capital Markets Europe Limited, Bahrain Branch retains all rights related to the content of this material, which may not be redistributed or otherwise transmitted without prior consent. United States This report is distributed in the U.S. by Daiwa Capital Markets America Inc. (DCMA). It may not be accurate or complete and should not be relied upon as such. It reflects the preparer’s views at the time of its preparation, but may not reflect events occurring after its preparation; nor does it reflect PT.Bahana Securities’ or DCMA’s views at any time. Neither PT.Bahana Securities, DCMA nor the preparer has any obligation to update this report or to continue to prepare research on this subject. This report is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of any offer to buy securities. Unless this report says otherwise, any recommendation it makes is risky and appropriate only for sophisticated speculative investors able to incur significant losses. Readers should consult their financial advisors to determine whether any such recommendation is consistent with their own investment objectives, financial situation and needs. This report does not recommend to U.S. recipients the use of any of PT.Bahana Securities’ or DCMA’s non-U.S. affiliates to effect trades in any security and is not supplied with any understanding that U.S. recipients of this report will direct commission business to such non-U.S. entities. Unless applicable law permits otherwise, non-U.S. customers wishing to effect a transaction in any securities referenced in this material should contact a Daiwa entity in their local jurisdiction. Most countries throughout the world have their own laws regulating the types of securities and other investment products which may be offered to their residents, as well as a process for doing so. As a result, the securities discussed in this report may not be eligible for sales in some jurisdictions. Customers wishing to obtain further information about this report should contact DCMA: Daiwa Capital Markets America Inc., Financial Square, 32 Old Slip, New York, New York 10005 (Tel no. 212-612-7000). Ownership of Securities For “Ownership of Securities” information please visit BlueMatrix disclosure Link at https://daiwa3.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action . Investment Banking Relationships For “Investment Banking Relationships” please visit BlueMatrix disclosure link at https://daiwa3.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action. DCMA Market Making For “DCMA Market Making” please visit BlueMatrix disclosure link at https://daiwa3.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action. Research Analyst Conflicts For updates on “Research Analyst Conflicts” please visit BlueMatrix disclosure link at https://daiwa3.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action. The principal research analysts who prepared this report have no financial interest in securities of the issuers covered in the report, are not (nor are any members of their household) an officer, director or advisory board member of the issuer(s) covered in the report, and are not aware of any material relevant conflict of interest involving the analyst or DCMA, and did not receive any compensation from the issuer during the past 12 months except as noted: no exceptions. Research Analyst Certification For updates on “Research Analyst Certification” and “Rating System” please visit BlueMatrix disclosure link at https://daiwa3.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action. The views about any and all of the subject securities and issuers expressed in this Research Report accurately reflect the personal views of the research analyst(s) primarily responsible for this report (or the views of the firm producing the report if no individual analysts[s] is named on the report); and no part of the compensation of such analyst(s) (or no part of the compensation of the firm if no individual analyst[s)] is named on the report) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this Research Report.
PT Bahana Securities – Equity Research – Bahana Beacon - The Daily
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Asiamoney's 2013 Best Domestic Equity House
2014 Finance Asia's Best Equity House
Alpha Southeast Asia 2014 Best Research Call FMCG Sector
2015 Institutional Investors Highest Ranked Local Research House
2015 Global Banking & Finance Review Best Research House
For stocks and sectors in Indonesia covered by Bahana Securities, the following rating system is in effect: Stock ratings are based on absolute upside or downside, which is the difference between the target price and the current market price. Unless otherwise specified, these ratings are set with a 12-month horizon. It is possible that future price volatility may cause a temporary mismatch between upside/downside for a stock based on the market price and the formal rating. "Buy": the price of the security is expected to increase by 10% or more. "Hold": the price of the security is expected to range from an increase of less than 10% to a decline of less than 5%. "Reduce": the price of the security is expected to decline by 5% or more. Sector ratings are based on fundamentals for the sector as a whole. Hence, a sector may be rated “Overweight” even though its constituent stocks are all rated “Reduce”; and a sector may be rated “Underweight” even though its constituent stocks are all rated “Buy”. “Overweight”: positive fundamentals for the sector. “Neutral”: neither positive nor negative fundamentals for the sector. “Underweight”: negative fundamentals for the sector. Ownership of Securities For “Ownership of Securities” information, please visit BlueMatrix disclosure Link at https://daiwa3.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action . Investment Banking Relationships For “Investment Banking Relationship”, please visit BlueMatrix disclosure Link at https://daiwa3.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action . Relevant Relationships (Bahana Securities) Bahana Securities may from time to time have an individual employed by or associated with it serves as an officer of any of the companies under its research coverage. Bahana Securities market making Bahana Securities may from time to time make a market in securities covered by this research. Explanatory Document of Unregistered Credit Ratings (Moody’s Investors Service, Inc.) In order to ensure the fairness and transparency in the markets, Credit Rating Agencies became subject to the Credit Rating Agencies’ registration system based on the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act. In accordance with this Act, in soliciting customers, Financial Instruments Business Operators, etc. shall not use the credit ratings provided by unregistered Credit Rating Agencies without informing customers of the fact that those Credit Rating Agencies are not registered, and shall also inform customers of the significance and limitations of credit ratings, etc. The Significance of Registration Registered Credit Rating Agencies are subject to the following regulations: 1) 2) 3) 4)
Duty of good faith. Establishment of control systems (fairness of the rating process, and prevention of conflict of interest, etc.). Prohibition of the ratings in cases where Credit Rating Agencies have a close relationship with the issuers of the financial instruments to be rated, etc. Duty to disclose information (preparation and publication of rating policies, etc. and public disclosure of explanatory documents).
In addition to the above, Registered Credit Rating Agencies are subject to the supervision of the Financial Services Agen cy (“FSA”), and as such may be ordered to produce reports, be subject to on-site inspection, and be ordered to improve business operations, whereas unregistered Credit Rating Agencies are free from such regulations and supervision. The Name of the Credit Rating Agency Group, etc The name of the Credit Rating Agency group: Moody’s Investors Service, Inc. ("MIS") The name and registration number of the Registered Credit Rating Agency in the group: Moody’s Japan K.K. (FSA commissioner (Rating) No.2) How to acquire information related to an outline of the rating policies and methods adopted by the person who determines Credit Ratings The information is posted under “Unregistered Rating explanation” in the section on “The use of Ratings of Unregistered Agenc ies” on the website of Moody’s Japan K.K. (The website can be viewed after clicking on “Credit Rating Business” on the Japanese version of Moody’s website (http://www.moodys.co.jp) Assumptions, Significance and Limitations of Credit Ratings Credit ratings are Moody’s Investors Service, Inc.’s ("MIS") current opinions of the relative future credit risk of entities, credit commitments, or debt or debtlike securities. MIS defines credit risk as the risk that an entity may not meet its contractual, financial obligations as they come due and any estimated financial loss in the event of default. Credit ratings do not address any other risk, including but not limited to: liquidity risk, market value risk, or price volatility. Credit ratings do not constitute investment or financial advice, and credit ratings are not recommendations to purchase, sell, or hold particular securities. No warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy, timeliness, completeness, merchantability or fitness for any particular purpose of any such rating or other opinion or information is given or made by MIS in any form or manner whatsoever. Based on the information received from issuers or from public sources, the credit risks of the issuers or obligations are assessed. MIS adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a credit rating is of sufficient quality and from sources MIS considers to be reliable. However, MIS is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process. Additional information may be available upon request. Japan - additional notification items pursuant to Article 37 of the Financial Instruments and Exchange Law (This Notification is only applicable where report is distributed by Daiwa Securities Co. Ltd.) If you decide to enter into a business arrangement with us based on the information described in materials presented along with this document, we ask you to pay close attention to the following items. In addition to the purchase price of a financial instrument, we will collect a trading commission* for each transaction as agreed beforehand with you. Since commissions may be included in the purchase price or may not be charged for certain transactions, we recommend that you confirm the commission for each transaction. In some cases, we may also charge a maximum of ¥ 2 million (including tax) per year as a standing proxy fee for our deposit of your securities, if you are a non-resident of Japan. For derivative and margin transactions etc., we may require collateral or margin requirements in accordance with an agreement made beforehand with you. Ordinarily in such cases, the amount of the transaction will be in excess of the required collateral or margin requirements. There is a risk that you will incur losses on your transactions due to changes in the market price of financial instruments based on fluctuations in interest rates, exchange rates, stock prices, real estate prices, commodity prices, and others. In addition, depending on the content of the transaction, the loss could exceed the amount of the collateral or margin requirements. There may be a difference between bid price etc. and ask price etc. of OTC derivatives handled by us.
PT Bahana Securities – Equity Research – Bahana Beacon - The Daily
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Asiamoney's 2013 Best Domestic Equity House
2014 Finance Asia's Best Equity House
Alpha Southeast Asia 2014 Best Research Call FMCG Sector
2015 Institutional Investors Highest Ranked Local Research House
2015 Global Banking & Finance Review Best Research House
Before engaging in any trading, please thoroughly confirm accounting and tax treatments regarding your trading in financial instruments with such experts as certified public accountants. *The amount of the trading commission cannot be stated here in advance because it will be determined between our company and you based on current market conditions and the content of each transaction etc. When making an actual transaction, please be sure to carefully read the materials presented to you prior to the execution of agreement, and to take responsibility for your own decisions regarding the signing of the agreement with us. Corporate Name: Daiwa Securities Co. Ltd. Financial instruments firm: chief of Kanto Local Finance Bureau (Kin-sho) No.108 Memberships: Japan Securities Dealers Association, Financial Futures Association of Japan Japan Securities Investment Advisers Association Type II Financial Instruments Firms Association
PT Bahana Securities – Equity Research – Bahana Beacon - The Daily
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