Morning Brief Daily | Jan 29, 2016 IHSG (Jakarta Composite Index)
JCI Movement
4602.83 January 28 +19.20 pts (+0.42%) Chg 4.73 Volume (bn shares) 5.56 Value (IDR tn) Adv 131 Dec 121 Unc 284 Untr 194
Foreign Transaction
JCI - intraday
Source: Bloomberg
JCI - one month
Source: Bloomberg
Indonesian Market Recap JCI bravely shook-off uninspired regional movement yesterday by closing above 4,600 again as investors were started to calculate earnings outlook. Top gainers: Misc Ind (+1.45%), Agri (+1.43%), Basic Ind (+1.36%).
Today’s Outlook: On resistance For today we estimate JCI to move flat within support range of 4556-4568 and resistance range of 4619-4622. Markets now are surrounded by positive sentiments, which are different with last week, bringing JCI now has been on the resistance of intermediate sideways. Positive sentiment comes from US rally helped by earnings reports. Meanwhile, V-shape rebound of oil on the beginning of this week has been likely confirmed as oil continues to rally, supported by expectation of cutting output.
2,642 2,634 9
NB Val. 124.2 40.1 22.0 21.1 17.2
LQ-45 Index Gainers ADRO SSMS LSIP WTON BBTN
Trading Buy: APLN, AALI, BSDE
Global Market United States US markets rose last night helped by better-than-expected earning report from Facebook in the middle of extended oil rally. Europe European markets fell yesterday as investors looked on weak corporate earnings offsetting positive sentiment from oil rally. Asia Asian markets struggled yesterday to ended mixed as China’s markets extended losses while the rest markets trimmed its losses after the Fed statement.
Company News : Obtains IDR 1.27 trillion of bank loan : Acquires Rudi Hadisuwarno : Allocates IDR 2 trillion for capex : Accelerates revenue from drugstore
Domestic and Global News
%
4.4% 3.6% 3.0%
Tenor: 10 year USD/IDR KRW/IDR Index
Quarterly Indicator
16.7 13.9 13.1
Last
Chg.
8.6646% 13,873.00 11.48
-0.10% -0.02% -0.54%
Chg.
%
Dow Jones
16,069.64
125.18
0.79%
S&P 500
1,893.36
10.41
0.55%
Nasdaq
4,506.68
38.51
0.86%
FTSE 100
5,931.78
(58.59)
-0.98%
CAC 40
4,322.16
(58.20)
-1.33%
DAX
9,639.59
(241.23)
-2.44%
Nikkei
17,041.45
(122.47)
-0.71%
Hang Seng
19,195.83
143.38
0.75%
Shanghai
2,655.66
(79.90)
-2.92%
KOSPI
1,906.94
9.07
0.48%
Commodity
Last
41.7 34.4
Last
Indonesia Economic Data Prev.
NS Val.
Global Indexes
Commodities
Last
Top Sell HMSP BMRI TLKM BBNI SMRA
Top Gainers & Losers Losers % -4.9% TBIG -3.9% MNCN -3.5% ITMG -1.8% BMTR -1.7% JSMR
9.0% 5.8%
Moody’s affirms Indonesia’s Baa3 sovereign rating Russian Energy Minister: Saudi is ready to cooperate on output Monthly Indicator
(IDR bn)
Government Bond Yield & FX
Technical Recommendation (details on the next page)
AISA MBTO TBIG KAEF
Buy Sell Net Buy (Sell) Top Buy ASII INDF SMGR LPKR GGRM
Last
Chg.
%
Gold (USD /troy oz.)
1,115.3
(9.6)
-0.86%
Prev.
Crude Oil (USD /bbl)
33.22
0.92
2.85%
2.18
0.03
1.16%
BI Rate
7.25%
7.50%
Real GDP
4.73%
4.67%
Gas (USD /mmbtu)
FX Reserve (USD bn)
105.93
100.24
Current Acc (USD bn)
(4.00)
(4.25)
Nickel LME (USD /MT)
8,590
(65.0)
-0.75%
6.56%
2.13%
CPO (MYR/Ton)
2,481
(22.0)
-0.88%
5.01
4.28
Trd Balance (USD bn)
Govt Spending Yoy
(0.24)
(0.35)
Exports Yoy
-17.66%
-17.58%
FDI (USD bn)
Imports Yoy
-16.02%
-18.03%
Business Confidence
106.04
105.46
4.89%
Cons. Confidence*
107.50
103.70
Inflation Yoy
3.35%
NH Korindo Securities Indonesia
Raphon Prima | Analyst +62 21 797 6202, ext:214
[email protected]
Technical Recommendation APLN
Last = 309
Analysis
Long white candlestick after long-shadowed spinning candlestick indicating confirmed bullish reversal. MACD indicator is going to form golden cross. Price is on rebound from its MA50 day average line.
Range
305-328
Action
Trading buy as price above 305
AALI
Last = 17225
Analysis
Long white candlestick on support of intermediate uptrend. Volume increased significantly. MA 20 day line is going to cross above MA 50 day line forming golden cross.
Range
16975-18000
Action
Trading buy as price above 16975
BSDE
Last = 1725
Analysis
Long white candlestick after spinning candlestick indicating bullish continuation possibility. MACD indicator is going to form golden cross. Price is on rebound from MA100 day support line.
Range
1710-1790
Action
Trading buy as price above 1710
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
Sector Rotation Relative Rotation Graph - Last 10 Days 102
Leading
Improving
101
Consumer
Misc Ind. Basic Ind.
Agriculture
100
Mining Trade
99
98
Finance Infrastructure Property
Weakening
Lagging 96
98
100
102
Source: Bloomberg
PT NH Korindo Securities Indonesia — Morning Brief | www.nhsec.co.id
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Relative Valuation Market Cap (IDR tn) JCI Index Finance BBCA BBRI BMRI BBNI BDMN BBTN BJBR BJTM Consumer UNVR GGRM ICBP KLBF INDF ROTI Infrastructure TLKM PGAS JSMR EXCL TBIG Trade UNTR LPPF SCMA AKRA MNCN ACES BMTR Property BSDE LPKR PWON WSKT SMRA CTRA PTPP WIKA ADHI ASRI APLN Misc Ind. ASII SRIL Basic Ind. INTP SMGR CPIN WTON Mining ADRO INCO PTBA ANTM ITMG Agriculture AALI SSMS LSIP
4,890.4 1,228.5 324.2 277.5 221.7 92.5 32.7 14.7 8.5 6.6 706.0 284.2 111.6 86.6 63.8 52.5 6.9 643.7 328.6 58.2 38.8 29.0 28.1 579.2 62.6 47.9 39.1 29.1 17.7 14.0 11.5 364.4 33.2 24.1 21.2 23.5 20.9 19.9 19.1 17.1 8.8 6.3 6.3 306.9 253.0 5.0 289.5 73.6 63.5 54.5 8.7 155.5 16.6 13.8 10.0 7.8 5.3 119.2 27.1 19.1 9.7
Price / BVPS
Return EVA Dividend Price / EPS EV/EBITDA on Equity Spread Yield (TTM) (TTM) (%) (%) TTM (%)
Sales Growth Yoy (%)
EPS Growth Yoy (%)
Adjusted Beta
3.77 2.58 2.00 1.20 0.97 1.11 1.18 1.05
18.4 11.3 11.1 10.2 13.7 9.3 6.7 7.5
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
22.0 24.7 19.2 13.4 7.3 12.7 18.2 14.3
6.4 9.0 4.2 0.8 (0.1) (1.5) 2.1 5.0
1.2 2.6 2.2 2.9 2.4 1.5 8.2 9.4
27.3 24.5 19.3 5.7 7.8 18.7 9.0 14.1
15.6 13.6 9.2 (15.7) (35.6) (28.5) (18.7) (5.8)
1.2 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.1 0.9
49.38 3.13 5.85 6.35 2.04 6.14
48.4 20.5 29.1 30.9 26.3 27.5
34.0 11.6 18.0 20.6 9.4 14.5
104.6 16.1 21.0 22.1 9.8 24.7
63.8 2.8 19.0 7.4 (5.2) 3.2
2.0 1.4 1.5 1.4 3.7 0.4
12.2 17.6 19.6 8.5 14.3 24.9
7.3 24.0 17.2 7.3 64.3 19.3
0.9 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.9
4.52 1.45 4.01 2.13 10.08
21.7 9.2 31.6 N/A 28.8
6.9 6.6 13.8 6.3 16.4
21.8 15.8 12.5 (3.6) 27.4
8.7 (0.1) (4.6) (5.3) (3.3)
2.7 6.0 1.3 N/A N/A
8.1 13.6 (10.7) 10.3 22.9
1.6 (25.0) 36.6 N/A 5.7
0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.8
1.56 69.27 10.97 4.86 2.04 5.65 1.08
10.1 27.5 26.2 26.9 17.3 24.3 N/A
3.2 19.3 18.5 19.5 7.8 16.1 6.1
16.2 N/A 44.9 19.4 12.1 24.7 (1.0)
1.0 77.6 23.5 (0.1) 1.6 8.3 (5.5)
4.7 1.8 4.7 1.8 5.1 2.0 3.1
4.2 17.3 9.8 0.6 2.2 16.6 6.4
11.1 23.3 11.0 24.2 4.2 9.2 15.6
1.1 1.0 1.2 0.5 1.2 1.2 1.5
1.80 1.45 3.12 2.79 3.51 2.48 6.68 4.09 3.13 1.06 0.94
13.7 15.3 9.0 23.8 15.8 14.4 30.9 28.0 14.5 20.8 8.6
11.9 10.5 10.1 16.5 12.1 11.0 N/A 15.3 14.5 6.9 6.3
14.1 10.1 40.3 14.3 24.0 18.5 24.8 14.5 22.6 5.8 11.5
(3.0) (3.8) 1.5 (4.1) 2.1 (1.3) 0.7 (3.0) (0.9) (1.9) (2.4)
0.9 1.6 1.0 0.6 1.4 0.3 0.6 0.7 1.2 2.2 N/A
(3.0) 74.8 27.8 6.2 30.3 25.0 6.6 4.9 (11.7) (1.4) 8.1
37.4 107.4 122.1 35.9 26.9 35.1 26.4 7.8 (20.2) 25.2 0.4
1.5 1.3 1.7 1.1 1.7 1.8 1.0 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.0
2.52 1.36
15.1 1.0
11.8 5.7
17.5 27.8
(6.4) (8.3)
3.5 2.0
4.0 23.1
(1.2) 41.8
1.5 0.9
3.23 2.51 4.57 3.99
15.4 13.6 42.1 24.9
10.4 8.8 17.8 26.3
20.7 19.6 11.3 23.1
5.7 4.2 (0.7) 0.6
6.8 3.5 0.5 1.2
7.0 10.1 13.6 24.0
5.2 3.6 (30.7) N/A
1.6 1.4 1.4 1.6
0.41 0.54 0.99 0.27 0.43
8.7 10.1 4.8 N/A 3.6
2.5 3.6 2.9 23.9 0.2
4.8 5.1 22.3 (9.8) 12.2
(3.8) (8.3) 5.6 (13.3) 2.9
6.4 N/A 7.5 N/A 29.5
1.2 12.6 16.7 (16.6) (10.8)
(23.8) 325.0 12.7 N/A (11.8)
1.5 0.8 1.2 0.7 1.0
2.50 6.47 1.36
35.4 26.7 14.2
10.3 20.5 7.5
7.1 27.6 9.7
(1.0) 7.5 (0.7)
2.7 1.1 3.7
28.6 11.1 14.3
39.0 (18.0) 18.8
0.9 1.0 0.6
1 Year Change (%) (12.5) (7.5) (1.3) (3.8) (13.4) (19.3) (24.2) 38.5 6.1 (14.4) (2.8) 5.3 2.3 1.0 (26.3) (19.0) (1.1) (12.3) 14.6 (52.7) (20.3) (31.5) (39.4) (13.0) (7.8) 6.3 (22.4) 56.9 (56.6) 9.4 (56.2) (15.2) (13.5) (8.3) (12.0) 6.6 (11.3) (8.8) 3.7 (24.4) (21.2) (46.2) (27.1) (20.8) (19.4) 77.0 (20.9) (12.6) (25.7) (15.8) (25.7) (41.4) (47.2) (60.4) (61.9) (64.1) (69.8) (22.2) (25.8) 22.3 (21.9)
Source: Bloomberg
PT NH Korindo Securities Indonesia — Morning Brief | www.nhsec.co.id
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Company News AISA : Obtains IDR 1.27 trillion of bank loan PT Tiga Pilar Sejahtera, Tbk has obtained IDR 1.27 trillion of loan from three banks for paying subsidiaries’ loans. The focus on this corporate action is refinancing. Three banks which gave loan to the company are PT Rabobank International Indonesia, PT Bank Maybank Indonesia, Tbk, and The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ LTD Jakarta Branch. (Bisnis)
MBTO : Acquires Rudi Hadisuwarno PT Martina Berto, Tbk has officially acquired Rudi Hadisuwarno brand with total transaction of IDR 58 billion. The transaction was done on January 25th, based on decision made in extraordinary shareholder meeting on June 16th 2015. With this acquisition, now the company owns 10 cosmetics brand. (Bisnis)
TBIG : Allocates IDR 2 trillion for capex PT Tower Bersama Infrastructure, Tbk allocates IDR 2 trillion for capital expenditure in this year. The company plans to acquire 2,500 telecommunication towers owned by PT XL Axiata, Tbk. In addition, fund will be used to finance maintenance and establishing towers. The company plans to establish 1,500 - 2,000 new towers in this years. (Kontan)
KAEF : Accelerates revenue from drugstore PT Kimia Farma, Tbk is targeting revenue from its subsidiary in drugstore business, PT Kimia Farma Apotek, to grow 26% from last year result which was above IDR 3 trillion. This higher target is due to company’s plan to add 135 new drugstores throughout Indonesia. In the end of last year, the company operated 725 drugstores, 315 clinics, and 43 laboratories. (Bisnis)
Domestic & Global News Moody’s affirms Indonesia’s Baa3 sovereign rating Moody’s Investors Service yesterday affirmed the Government of Indonesia’ Baa3 issuer rating, Baa3 senior unsecured bond ratings, and Baa3 senior unsecured MTN program rating with a stable outlook. The key drivers of the affirmation are Moody’s expectations that: 1. Indonesia will maintain its strong balance sheet against the current backdrops of widening fiscal defisits, 2. Policymakers will continue to effectively manage the risks from lower commodity prices and weaker growth to ensure the sustainability of Indonesia’s external payments position. (Moody’s) Russian Energy Minister: Saudi is ready to cooperate on output Russian Energy Minister, Alexander Novak stated yesterday that Saudi Arabia had proposed oil production cuts up to 5 percent by each country. But a senior Gulf OPEC delegate later said that Saudi Arabia has not proposed scaling back output or asked Russia to do the same, according to The Wall Street Journal report. The official told that 5 percent cut was previously proposed by Algeria and Venezuela. But Saudi Arabia and Persian Gulf countries are ready to cooperate with others to bring stability to international oil markets. (CNBC)
PT NH Korindo Securities Indonesia — Morning Brief | www.nhsec.co.id
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Global Economic Calendar
Monday 25 - Jan
JPN JPN JPN GER GER GER
Hour Jakarta 06:50 06:50 06:50 16:00 16:00 16:00
Tuesday 26 - Jan
USA
22:00
Consumer Confidence Index
Jan
98.1
96.5
96.5
Wednesday 27- Jan
CHN GER USA USA
08:30 14:00 19:00 22:00
Industrial Profits YoY GfK Consumer Confidence MBA Mortgage Applications New Home Sales
Dec Feb 22-Jan Dec
-4.70% 9.4 8.8 544k
-9.3 -500k
-1.40% 9.4 9.00% 490k
Thursday 28 - Jan
USA USA JPN JPN UK UK EU GER GER GER GER USA USA
02:00 02:00 06:50 06:50 16:30 16:30 17:00 20:00 20:00 20:00 20:00 20:30 20:30
FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) Retail Sales MoM Retail Trade YoY GDP QoQ GDP YoY Consumer Confidence CPI EU Harmonized MoM CPI EU Harmonized YoY CPI MoM CPI YoY Durable Goods Orders Initial Jobless Claims
27-Jan 27-Jan Dec Dec 4Q A 4Q A Jan F Jan P Jan P Jan P Jan P Dec P 23-Jan
0.25% 0.50% -0.20% -1.10% 0.50% 1.90% -6.3 -0.90% 0.40% -0.80% 0.50% -5.10% 278k
0.25% 0.50% 0.90% 0.20% 0.50% 1.90% --1.00% 0.40% -0.80% 0.50% -0.50% --
0.25% 0.50% -2.50% -1.00% 0.40% 2.10% -6.3 0.00% 0.20% -0.10% 0.30% 0.00% 293k
Friday 29 - Jan
JPN JPN JPN JPN JPN JPN UK EU EU EU USA USA USA
Tentative 06:30 06:30 06:30 06:50 06:50 07:05 16:00 17:00 17:00 20:30 21:45 22:00
Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Statement Jobless Rate Job-To-Applicant Ratio Natl CPI YoY Industrial Production MoM Industrial Production YoY GfK Consumer Confidence M3 Money Supply YoY CPI Core YoY CPI Estimate YoY GDP Annualized QoQ Chicago Purchasing Manager U. of Mich. Sentiment
Dec Dec Dec Dec P Dec P Jan Dec Jan A Jan 4Q A Jan Jan F
3.30% 1.27 0.20% -1.40% -1.60%
3.30% 1.26 0.20% -0.30% -0.60% 1 5.20% 0.90% 0.40% 0.70% 45.8 92.5
3.30% 1.25 0.30% -0.90% 1.70% 2 5.10% 0.90% 0.20% 2.00% 42.9 93.3
Date
Country
Event
Period
Actual
Consensus
Previous
Exports YoY Imports YoY Trade Balance IFO Business Climate IFO Current Assessment IFO Expectations
Dec Dec Dec Jan Jan Jan
-8 -18.0 ¥140.2b 107.3 112.5 102.4
-7 -16.4 ¥117.0b 108.5 112.7 104.3
-3.3 -10.2 -¥379.7b 108.7 112.8 104.7
Source: Bloomberg
PT NH Korindo Securities Indonesia — Morning Brief | www.nhsec.co.id
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Domestic Economic Calendar Date Tuesday 26 - Jan
Hour Event Jakarta Tentative Money Supply M1 YoY Tentative Money Supply M2 YoY
Period
Actual
Dec Dec
9.20% 10.02%
Consensus
Prev 10.00% 9.20%
Source: Bloomberg
Corporate Calendar Date Monday 25 - Jan
Event
Company
Extraordinary Shareholder Meeting
Wednesday Stock Split 27 - Jan Extraordinary Shareholder Meeting Thursday 28 - Jan
Annual Shareholder Meeting
Friday 29 - Jan
Extraordinary Shareholder Meeting Annual Shareholder Meeting
TPIA
10 for 1 (Par Value from IDR 1,000 to IDR 100 per share) TIRA PDES
GSMF, KONI BJTM Source: Bloomberg
PT NH Korindo Securities Indonesia — Morning Brief | www.nhsec.co.id
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