Tuesday, 3 July 2012
Bahana Beacon
IDX: 3,991.5 (+0.9%) Turnover: IDR3.5t (-8.8%) Foreign net buy: IDR195b (-67.7%)
Indonesia Morning Brief ECONOMIC FLASH
For details please refer to our separate report(s)
Inflation & trade updates June’s headline inflation spiked on seasonal effects Inflation to remain contained with BI rate to stay flat Exports weakened; Higher imports caused external trade deficit
SPOTLIGHT
For details please refer to our separate report(s)
Ciputra Development - Like no other First mover advantage in ex-Java, helped by JO schemes 44 projects to reach 2012 pre-sales of IDR6.2t (+70% y-y) 2013: Strong growth with more recurring; 20 new cities & projects
TODAY’S NEWS ECONOMICS Pertamina: Oil stealing to disturb lifting target 2012 poverty rate dropped to 11.96%
CORPORATE PGAS demands revision on upstream gas prices BUMI’s USD231m investment on hold ISAT aims 1m handheld sales GMF to build USD52m hangar ASRI announced internal restructuring and transaction to acquire GWK
MARKET DATA
11A Cur acc bal (%GDP) 0.4 Fiscal bal (%GDP) (1.3) GDP growth (%y-y) 6.5 Private spending (% 4.7 Investment (%y-y) 8.8 Total exports (%y-y) 13.6 Total imports (%y-y 13.3 Inflation (%y-y) 3.8 IDR/USD 9,075 BI rate (% p.a.) 6.00 Oil (USd/bbl) 98.8 FX reserve (USDb) 111.3
Op.prof.gwt.(%) Op.prof.gwt. exc. coal EPS growth (%) EPS gwt exc. Coal (%) P/E (x) P/E exc. coal (x) PEG (x) PEG exc. coal (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) Div. yield (%) ROE (%)
Source: Bahana estimates
12F 13F (0.1) 1.0 (2.5) (1.5) 6.1 6.4 5.3 5.8 9.8 9.9 3.5 9.4 10.5 11.5 4.1 4.3 9,150 9,000 5.75 5.75 90.0 87.0 117.0 127.0
Source: Bahana estimates
Last
Chg%
ytd %
y-y %
Hang Seng (HK) 19,441.5 IDX (Indonesia) 3,991.5 KLCI (Malaysia) 1,600.9 KOSPI (Korea) 1,851.7 Nikkei (Japan) 9,003.5 PCOMP (Phil.) 5,300.2 SENSEX (India) 17,399.0 SET (Thailand) 1,188.7 SHCOMP (China) 2,226.1 Shenzhen (China) 932.5 STI (Singapore) 2,910.6 TWSE (Taiwan) 7,345.2 VNI (Vietnam) 419.3 Europe, USA and SA CAC 40 (France) 3,240.2 DAX (Germany) 6,496.1 Dow Jones (USA) 12,871.4 FTSE 100 (UK) 5,640.6 IBOV (Brazil) 54,692.8 NASDAQ (USA) 2,951.2 RTSI (Russia) 1,363.0 S&P 500 (USA) 1,365.5
2.2 0.9 0.1 (0.1) (0.0) 1.0 (0.2) 1.4 0.0 1.2 1.1 0.7 (0.7)
5.5 4.4 4.6 1.4 6.5 21.2 12.6 15.9 1.2 7.6 10.0 3.9 19.3
(13.2) 1.6 1.1 (12.9) (8.8) 21.8 (7.3) 14.1 (19.3) (19.8) (7.3) (16.0) (1.4)
1.4 1.2 (0.1) 1.2 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.2
2.5 10.1 5.4 1.2 (3.6) 13.3 (1.4) 8.6
(19.1) (12.4) 2.3 (5.8) (13.7) 4.8 (29.7) 1.9
Last
Chg%
ytd %
y-y %
8,189 4,258 45,608 90 268 3,378 7,635 1,591 1,013 5,500 1,596 134 380 16,732 83.4 831 8,300 2,885 1,154 645 525 18,908 285
0.3 (2.8) (1.1) (0.9) 2.9 3.1 (0.7) (0.0) 0.8 0.0 (0.1) (0.4) (0.1) 0.2 (0.5) (0.8) 0.0 1.9 0.3 (0.2) 0.4 0.7 0.4
14.3 (28.0) (64.8) (19.9) 9.8 (18.2) 0.6 (21.4) (2.6) 28.0 2.1 (3.6) (0.3) (10.6) (15.7) (0.3) 1.2 (11.8) 0.5 (3.0) 2.7 (1.3) 10.5
2.0 (24.1) (73.4) (26.0) 11.9 (29.4) (19.0) (55.3) (8.0) 72.4 7.3 (20.4) 7.0 (27.1) (12.2) (18.8) 21.2 (34.2) (5.1) (13.6) 9.7 (26.1) 3.0
ADRS & COMMODITIES
INDUSTRY AIF to fund five infrastructure projects in Indonesia Taxes on hybrid vehicles to be slashed to support local industry Airlines passengers reached 26.5m people in May
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
INDICES Asia
11A 18.7 6.7 30.4 20.0 17.7 18.5 0.6 0.9 9.1 6.9 2.3 31.6
material
12F 9.0 10.9 8.7 11.7 15.9 16.3 1.8 1.4 7.9 5.7 2.6 30.4
13F 9.2 11.7 9.5 14.7 14.3 14.2 1.5 1.0 7.0 4.8 2.9 29.5
TLK US (IDR) IIT US (IDR) BUMI LN (IDR) Coal (USD/t) Corn (USD/mtn) Coffee (USD/t) Copper (USD/t) Cotton (USD/t) CPO (USD/mtn-CIF) DOC (IDR/kg) Gold (USD/oz.) Iron ore (USD/mtn) Milk (USD/t) Nickel (USD/t) Oil (USD/barrel) Pulp (USD/t)* Rice (IDR/kg) Rubber (USD/t) Soybean oil (USD/t) Steel (USD/t) Sugar (USD/t) Tins (USD/t) Wheat (USD/t)
CURRENCIES & RATES AUD/USD USD/EUR IDR/USD JPY/USD SGD/USD JIBOR (%) BI rate (%) TD – 1 month (%) CDS (bps) Source: Bloomberg
Last
Prev.
Ytd %
y-y %
1.024 1.258 9,378 79.470 1.268 3.97 5.75 5.29 188.62
1.023 1.264 9,375 79.780 1.268 3.98 5.75 5.26 191.58
(0.3) 2.9 3.3 3.3 2.2 (0.6) (0.3) (0.9) (9.44)
4.7 13.5 10.0 1.6 (3.5) (2.1) (1.0) (1.2) 40.11
*Based on weekly price on Tuesday
Disclosure: Bahana Securities does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
ECONOMICS Pertamina: Oil stealing to disturb lifting target Pertamina EP, the upstream business unit of the state-owned oil and gas company (Pertamina), lost 59k barrels of crude oil in June alone due to stealing in Jambi and South Sumatra. The company estimated that its total losses from the pipeline had reached 100k barrels of crude oil worth IDR90b-100b and this will disturb the oil lifting target of 930k/bpd in the 2012 state budget. (Jakarta Post) 2012 poverty rate dropped to 11.96% Central Statistics Office (BPS) reported that 2012 poverty rate dropped to 11.96% compared to last year of 12.36% on the back of higher wages for workers in farm and construction sectors. (Kompas, Kontan)
INDUSTRY AIF to fund five infrastructure projects in Indonesia The government ensures five national infrastructure projects will obtain financing loans from the ASEAN Infrastructure Fund (AIF) through 2014. The fund totals to USD400m. The five projects are (1) JAVA-Bali 500 KV Power Transmission Crossing worth USD75m, (2) Projects to strengthen connectivity worth USD100m, (3) Geothermal power plant worth USD75m, (4) Interconnected electricty project SumateraMalaysia worth USD75m, and (5) road development phase II Java – Borneo worth USD75m. The five projects were approved from nine AIF projects initially proposed by the government. (Indonesia Finance Today) Taxes on hybrid vehicles to be slashed to support local industry Imported low cost and low carbon emission vehicles will enjoy lower taxes and import duties after a new government regulation is passed as Indonesia tries to conserve energy and reduce its house gas emissions. The new rules should be submitted to president SBY in the next six weeks, Industry Minister M. S. Hidayat said on Monday. At the same time, June car sales were reported to reach 100k units, the highest ever, on implementation of higher down payment policy starting 16th of June 2012. This monthly sales brought 5M12 sales to 534k units, up 28% y-y. Bahana: We believe this policy will be positive for Indonesia’s hybrid vehicle development, which is in line with our long-term view of the country’s positive auto prospect. We expect 2012 car sales to reach 965k units, up 8% y-y. (Jakarta Globe & Bisnis Indonesia) Airlines passengers reached 26.5m people in May BPS recorded the domestic and international airlines passengers reached 26.5m people in May, up 7.7% yy. Domestic passenger reached 21.7m people, up 6% y-y and 4.5% m-m (April: 4.8m passengers) with the highest contribution from Jakarta and Surabaya. International passengers reached 4.8m people, up 12.8% y-y and 1.7% m-m (April: 972k passengers) with the highest contribution from Jakarta and Bali. (Indonesia Finance Today)
CORPORATE PGAS demands revision on upstream gas prices Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS-BUY-IDR3,475-TP:IDR4,400) proposed revisions on upstream gas prices following the government’s announcement that gas prices in West Java will be increased gradually starting September 2012 (+35%) and April 2013 (+15%), slightly lower than initial plans of 55%. PGAS proposed upstream gas price increase not to exceed 200%. Previously, PGAS has finalized price renegotiation with ConocoPhillips to raise gas prices from previously USD1.85/mmbtu to USD5.6/mmbtu (+203%) starting in April 2012. PGAS also inked an agreement with Pertamina EP to raise gas prices from USD2.23/mmbtu to USD5.5/mmbtu (+147%). (Indonesia Finance Today) BUMI’s USD231m investment on hold Bumi Resources (BUMI-REDUCE-IDR1,160-TP:IDR1,080) announced it has not received USD231m funds from Recapital Asset Management expected to be received in the first half of this year. The fund is expected to help BUMI to repay its USD600m debt to CIC this year. Currently, the management of BUMI is engaged in an active dialogue with Recapital regarding the timing of the repayment, which is due to be repaid on 27 August 2012. (Jakarta Post) ISAT aims 1m handheld sales PT Bahana Securities – Equity Research – Bahana Beacon - The Daily
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Indosat (ISAT-HOLD-IDR4,250-TP:IDR4,500) targets 1m handheld sales through its bundling program. ISAT has cooperated with 8 local and international vendors to achieve its target. Eric Meijer, ISAT’s chief commercial officer, stated that the bundling program can be used to improve ISAT’s basic and value added service. (Indonesia Finance Today)
GMF to build USD52m hangar GMF AeroAsia, a subsidiary of Garuda Indonesia (GIAA-BUY-IDR690-TP:IDR820), plans to construct its fourth hangar in September this year. The new hangar will be built on 18,000 square-meters of land and will be equipped with a docking platform for heavy maintenance. Dwi Prasmono Adji, GMF’s corporate secretary, stated that the hangar will cost USD52m and is expected to be completed by the end of 2013. He also stated that the company is planning to build a fifth hangar as soon as the fourth hangar construction started and is expected to be completed by the end of 2014 (Jakarta Post) ASRI announced internal restructuring and material transaction to acquire GWK Alam Sutera (ASRI-BUY-IDR500-TP:IDR880) has announced that two of its shareholders (Selaras Citramanunggal and Bukit Asri Padang Gold) sold their stakes totaling to 3.18b shares (16.19% of ASRI total outstanding shares) worth IDR1.46t (USD155m, translating to IDR460/share) to other founders, Tangerang Fajar Industrial Estate and Manunggal Prime Development. The company said that the purpose of this transaction was an internal restructuring to improve efficiency in decision making process. On separate news, ASRI has provided additional disclosure related to its material transaction to acquire minimum 90.3% stake on Garuda Adhimatra Indonesia (who manage the Garuda Wisnu Kencana (GWK) cultural park) worth IDR812b. (Investor Daily, Business Indonesia).
PT Bahana Securities – Equity Research – Bahana Beacon - The Daily
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BAHANA EQUITY COVERAGE, LEADERS & LAGGARDS (Daily) COMPANY Surya Citra Media Vale Indonesia Adaro Energy Bakrie Sumatra Plantations Harum Energy Timah BW Plantation Indo Tambangraya Megah Indocement Bumi Resources Semen Gresik Bukit Asam AKR Corporindo Gozco Plantations Surya Semesta Internusa Unilever Indonesia Adhi Karya Indika Energy Sampoerna Agro Pelat Timah Nusantara United Tractors Wintermar Offshore Gajah Tunggal Bank Jabar Banten Alam Sutera Realty Gudang Garam Borneo Lumbung Energi Bumi Serpong Damai Kawasan Industri Jababeka Ciputra Development Ciputra Property Aneka Tambang Indomobil Sukses International Astra Agro Lestari Ramayana Lestari Sentosa Total Bangun Persada IDX Tempo Scan Pacific Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Astra International Bank Mandiri Bank Central Asia Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada Bank Bukopin Bank Danamon Bank Negara Indonesia Bank Rakyat Indonesia Bank Tabungan Negara Delta Dunia Makmur Indofood Sukses Makmur Jasa Marga Kalbe Farma Lippo Cikarang Lippo Karawaci Medco Energy Salim Ivomas Pratama Sarana Menara Nusantara XL Axiata Nippon Indosari Corpindo Telekomunikasi Indonesia Mitra Adiperkasa Bayan Resources London Sumatra Indonesia Wijaya Karya Perusahaan Gas Negara Bakrie Telekomunikasi Japfa Comfeed Indonesia Pembangunan Perumahan Indosat Summarecon Agung Garuda Indonesia Agung Podomoro Land Cardig Aero Service Charoen Pokphand Indonesia
BUY HOLD REDUCE HOLD REDUCE REDUCE BUY REDUCE HOLD REDUCE BUY HOLD HOLD HOLD HOLD HOLD BUY UR UR UR HOLD BUY HOLD BUY BUY BUY REDUCE BUY BUY BUY BUY REDUCE BUY HOLD HOLD BUY
TARGET PRICE 10,450 2,400 1,120 300 5,300 1,200 1,950 29,750 20,000 1,080 14,400 13,100 4,700 320 1,100 18,250 1,200 3,200 4,100 380 21,750 620 2,750 1,320 880 71,000 480 1,810 285 950 910 1,100 10,500 18,500 1,000 710
Up/(Downside) Potential (%) 1.5 (17.2) (28.2) 55.4 (11.7) (17.2) 30.0 (21.1) 10.2 (6.9) 22.0 (13.8) 30.6 8.5 8.9 (22.7) 17.6 67.5 34.4 81.0 (0.5) 37.8 18.3 40.4 76.0 13.3 (15.8) 50.8 51.6 43.9 37.9 (19.1) 47.9 (8.9) 5.3 43.4
BUY BUY HOLD BUY HOLD BUY HOLD HOLD BUY BUY BUY HOLD BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY HOLD BUY * BUY REDUCE HOLD BUY BUY REDUCE BUY BUY REDUCE BUY BUY HOLD BUY HOLD
3,800 7,200 7,300 8,700 8,900 2,700 780 5,600 5,200 8,300 1,850 600 6,000 6,500 4,500 5,000 1,110 3,200 1,650 18,000 5,500 4,800 * 8,400 6,000 2,350 1,200 4,400 50 5,100 770 4,500 2,350 820 430 770 2,925
32.2 24.1 5.8 20.0 21.1 37.8 23.8 (6.7) 35.9 30.7 43.4 51.9 23.7 20.4 19.2 53.8 38.8 77.8 26.0 16.1 (10.6) 17.1 * 18.3 (48.3) (11.3) 15.4 26.6 (74.6) 5.2 28.3 5.9 48.7 18.8 28.4 6.9 (10.0)
STOCK CODE
RATING
SCMA INCO ADRO UNSP HRUM TINS BWPT ITMG INTP BUMI SMGR PTBA AKRA GZCO SSIA UNVR ADHI INDY SGRO NIKL UNTR WINS GJTL BJBR ASRI GGRM BORN BSDE KIJA CTRA CTRP ANTM IMAS AALI RALS TOTL IDX TSPC ICBP ASII BMRI BBCA CMNP BBKP BDMN BBNI BBRI BBTN DOID INDF JSMR KLBF LPCK LPKR MEDC SIMP TOWR EXCL ROTI TLKM MAPI BYAN LSIP WIKA PGAS BTEL JPFA PTPP ISAT SMRA GIAA APLN CASS CPIN
6/2/2012 10,300 2,900 1,560 193 6,000 1,450 1,500 37,700 18,150 1,160 11,800 15,200 3,600 295 1,010 23,600 1,020 1,910 3,050 210 21,850 450 2,325 940 500 62,650 570 1,200 188 660 660 1,360 7,100 20,300 950 495 3,992 2,875 5,800 6,900 7,250 7,350 1,960 630 6,000 3,825 6,350 1,290 395 4,850 5,400 3,775 3,250 800 1,800 1,310 15,500 6,150 4,100 8,100 7,100 11,600 2,650 1,040 3,475 197 4,850 600 4,250 1,580 690 335 720 3,250
6/29/2012 9,500 2,675 1,450 182 5,700 1,380 1,430 35,950 17,350 1,110 11,300 14,650 3,475 285 980 22,900 990 1,860 2,975 205 21,350 440 2,275 920 490 61,500 560 1,180 185 650 650 1,340 7,000 20,050 940 490 3,956 2,850 5,750 6,850 7,200 7,300 1,950 630 6,000 3,825 6,350 1,290 395 4,850 5,400 3,775 3,250 800 1,800 1,310 15,500 6,150 4,125 8,150 7,150 11,700 2,675 1,050 3,525 200 4,925 610 4,325 1,620 710 345 750 3,425
CHANGE (%) 8.4 8.4 7.6 6.0 5.3 5.1 4.9 4.9 4.6 4.5 4.4 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (0.6) (0.6) (0.7) (0.9) (0.9) (1.0) (1.4) (1.5) (1.5) (1.6) (1.7) (2.5) (2.8) (2.9) (4.0) (5.1)
Source: Bloomberg *In regard to the engagement letter from the companies, PT. Bahana Securities will not produce the companies’ ratings and target prices during the engagement period to ensure the opinions given are fair and reasonable.
PT Bahana Securities – Equity Research – Bahana Beacon - The Daily
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JCI Code
Rating
AERO SERVICE GIAA C ASS
N BUY BUY
Price (IDR)
TP (IDR)
# of shares (m)
690 720
820 770
22,641 2,087
F ree float (%) 28.0 15.0
Mkt cap* (IDRb) 17,125 15,622 1,503
3M av g to* (IDRb) 20.4 16.7 3.7
Rev enue (IDRb)* 2012 2013 34,244 38,266 33,177 37,066 1,067 1,200
Opt. profit (IDRb)* 2012 2013 2,193 3,028 1,923 2,728 270 300
Net profit (IDRb)* 2012 2013 1,280 1,703 1,177 1,579 103 124
EPS growth (%) 2012 2013 46.1 31.7 46.1 32.7 46.5 20.2
PER (x) 2012 2013 13.4 10.2 13.3 10.0 14.6 12.1
EV/EBITDA (x) 2012 2013 5.8 4.9 5.8 5.0 5.0 4.2
P/BV (x) 2012 2013 2.0 1.6 1.8 1.5 3.9 3.0
Yield (%) 2012 2013 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.8
Net gearing (%) 2012 2013 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 nc nc
ROAE (%) 2012 2013 15.8 17.5 14.4 16.5 30.3 27.9
AUTO & EQUIP. ASII UNTR IMAS GJTL DOID
OW HOLD HOLD BUY HOLD HOLD
6,900 21,850 7,100 2,325 395
7,300 21,750 10,500 2,750 600
40,484 3,730 2,765 3,485 8,148
45.2 40.5 29.6 40.3 59.9
391,794 279,336 81,503 19,633 8,102 3,219
453 241.7 168.3 23.3 7.4 12.0
292,691 181,559 65,402 24,906 12,655 8,169
338,837 204,480 78,706 32,212 13,961 9,478
32,267 19,625 9,552 1,013 1,165 911
36,680 21,117 11,647 1,289 1,491 1,135
28,773 19,033 7,142 1,393 840 365
32,967 20,902 8,765 1,744 1,102 454
11.8 7.0 13.4 71.4 22.9 167.4
17.2 9.8 22.7 25.2 31.2 24.3
13.8 14.7 11.4 14.1 9.6 9.0
12.2 13.4 9.3 11.3 7.4 7.2
9.9 10.5 5.6 20.3 7.0 4.0
8.9 9.8 4.6 16.6 5.3 1.1
3.6 3.9 2.6 3.3 1.6 1.7
3.0 3.4 2.2 2.7 1.3 1.4
2.9 3.1 2.9 0.8 2.2 0.0
3.2 3.4 3.5 1.8 0.0 0.0
36.0 45.8 nc 5.0 17.3 339.5
24.1 30.4 nc 2.5 nc 272.2
27.7 29.0 24.8 26.3 17.3 21.1
26.7 27.3 25.6 26.4 19.1 21.2
BANKING BBC A BMRI BBRI BBNI BDMN BJBR BBTN BBKP
N HOLD BUY BUY BUY HOLD BUY BUY HOLD
7,350 7,250 6,350 3,825 6,000 940 1,290 630
8,900 8,700 8,300 5,200 5,600 1,320 1,850 780
24,655 23,333 24,669 18,649 9,585 9,696 8,841 7,968
54.9 40.0 43.2 40.0 32.4 49.4 28.2 40.8
661,409 181,214 169,167 156,649 71,331 57,508 9,115 11,405 5,020
651.0 89.5 155.3 251.2 60.1 61.1 12.8 10.4 10.5
172,333 30,287 42,080 45,050 23,842 18,789 4,132 4,762 3,391
199,576 34,814 50,026 51,862 27,553 21,093 4,820 5,531 3,877
71,198 14,338 18,226 20,064 8,398 5,951 1,566 1,583 1,073
81,423 16,362 21,079 22,438 9,885 6,778 1,833 1,805 1,244
56,446 11,766 13,686 17,044 6,869 3,820 1,206 1,193 862
64,686 13,430 15,962 19,064 8,080 4,380 1,410 1,359 1,001
10.9 8.8 10.2 13.0 18.3 4.5 25.3 6.6 13.5
14.4 14.1 16.6 11.9 17.6 14.7 16.9 14.0 16.0
12.3 15.4 12.4 9.2 10.4 15.1 7.6 9.5 5.8
10.7 13.5 10.6 8.2 8.8 13.1 6.5 8.4 5.0
na na na na na na na na na
na na na na na na na na na
2.6 3.6 2.3 2.5 1.6 2.0 1.5 1.4 1.0
2.1 3.0 2.0 2.0 1.4 1.8 1.3 1.2 0.9
1.8 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.8 6.8 2.1 5.2
1.9 1.7 1.9 1.8 2.0 1.9 7.0 2.4 6.0
na na na na na na na na na
na na na na na na na na na
23.0 25.3 20.1 30.2 16.9 14.0 21.2 15.3 18.4
21.8 24.0 19.9 26.7 17.3 14.4 22.0 15.4 18.6
CEMENT INTP SMGR
OW HOLD BUY
18,150 11,800
20,000 14,400
3,681 5,932
49.0 49.0
136,806 66,814 69,992
120 52.1 67.4
35,670 16,727 18,943
40,750 19,088 21,662
11,412 5,712 5,700
13,012 6,425 6,587
9,058 4,470 4,588
10,498 5,096 5,402
21.2 24.3 16.9
15.5 14.0 17.7
15.1 14.9 15.3
13.0 13.1 13.0
9.7 8.9 10.4
8.0 7.5 8.5
3.8 3.5 4.1
3.1 2.9 3.4
2.3 2.0 2.6
2.5 2.3 2.7
nc nc nc
nc nc nc
27.3 25.6 28.9
26.3 24.2 28.3
CONSTRUC. TOWR WIKA PTPP TOTL ADHI
OW BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY
15,500 1,040 600 495 1,020
18,000 1,200 770 710 1,200
1,020 6,069 4,842 3,410 1,801
49.9 34.1 29.1 35.3 49.0
28,557 15,815 6,311 2,905 1,688 1,837
34 0.2 11.0 8.6 5.4 8.5
29,743 2,061 9,669 7,280 1,922 8,811
37,009 2,403 11,764 9,317 2,176 11,349
3,448 1,144 831 654 182 638
4,267 1,353 1,026 844 209 835
1,644 525 456 323 156 183
2,304 670 588 441 179 428
68.0 84.9 28.7 34.6 24.6 0.7
29.9 27.6 28.8 36.2 14.8 133.3
21.8 30.1 13.3 9.0 10.8 10.0
16.9 23.6 10.4 6.6 9.4 4.3
9.2 12.2 6.1 5.6 4.7 3.3
7.6 10.3 4.7 5.1 3.7 2.3
5.3 7.8 2.5 1.7 2.4 1.6
4.1 5.9 2.2 1.4 2.1 1.2
1.2 0.0 2.0 2.5 4.4 3.0
1.4 0.0 2.6 3.3 5.5 3.0
129.8 224.6 nc 22.7 nc 48.0
76.4 131.0 nc 26.2 nc 18.4
25.5 29.6 20.5 20.9 23.1 17.4
26.6 28.4 22.6 23.8 23.6 32.9
CONSUMER UNVR GGRM INDF KLBF IC BP TSPC MAPI RALS ROTI
OW HOLD BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY HOLD BUY
23,600 62,650 4,850 3,775 5,800 2,875 7,100 950 4,100
18,250 71,000 6,000 4,500 7,200 3,800 8,400 1,000 4,800
7,630 1,924 8,780 10,156 5,831 4,500 1,660 7,096 1,012
15.0 24.4 49.9 40.0 20.0 4.9 44.0 40.3 19.3
450,971 180,068 120,544 42,585 38,339 33,820 12,938 11,786 6,741 4,151
261 35.4 57.0 53.2 67.2 15.3 5.3 16.5 9.4 1.3
181,214 27,178 47,355 48,961 13,247 21,649 6,796 7,568 7,335 1,124
202,457 31,378 51,881 52,882 15,408 23,582 7,919 9,694 8,294 1,419
29,063 6,270 7,695 7,511 2,262 3,049 882 766 435 192
32,592 7,223 8,464 8,100 2,614 3,385 1,086 969 492 261
19,548 4,734 5,544 3,484 1,735 2,276 731 467 427 150
22,346 5,469 6,321 3,850 2,009 2,525 887 599 480 205
13.6 13.7 13.3 13.2 17.1 15.2 29.2 29.5 13.0 29.6
14.3 15.5 14.0 10.5 15.7 11.0 21.3 28.2 12.6 36.8
26.8 38.0 21.7 12.2 22.1 14.9 17.7 25.3 15.8 27.6
23.2 32.9 19.1 11.1 19.1 13.4 14.6 19.7 14.0 20.2
18.2 28.1 14.0 4.6 14.4 8.9 10.8 11.5 8.6 18.5
15.8 24.4 12.6 3.7 12.5 7.9 8.9 9.7 7.5 13.4
17.2 37.2 4.3 2.0 5.4 2.8 3.8 5.3 2.2 6.2
14.0 29.9 3.7 1.8 4.7 2.4 3.4 4.3 2.0 5.0
2.0 2.2 1.4 2.5 2.1 1.3 3.8 0.6 3.1 0.7
2.3 2.6 1.6 3.0 2.5 1.5 4.7 0.8 3.5 0.9
12.8 29.3 1.3 nc nc nc nc 28.5 nc 2.8
12.3 29.4 nc nc nc nc nc 21.7 nc nc
52.9 100.4 21.5 18.7 25.0 20.0 22.9 23.5 14.4 24.1
50.9 94.8 22.1 18.7 24.5 19.2 24.8 24.3 14.9 26.8
BUY
10,300
10,450
1,950
19.4
20,085 20,085
2 2.2
2,681 2,681
3,097 3,097
1,433 1,433
1,716 1,716
1,083 1,083
1,304 1,304
18.7 18.7
20.4 20.4
18.4 18.4
15.3 15.3
13.4 13.4
11.2 11.2
13.1 13.1
12.9 12.9
5.4 5.4
6.4 6.4
nc nc
nc nc
71.6 71.6
85.3 85.3
497 71.2 0.6 116.8 79.5 53.4 29.1 65.1 37.8 14.0 19.3 10.0
234,886 35,858 23,205 37,363 23,205 11,733 8,997 8,560 9,353 61,795 6,182 8,636
222,713 32,662 18,974 32,376 18,974 10,944 10,591 7,941 9,731 63,662 6,950 9,907
60,671 10,697 5,997 8,672 5,997 3,868 2,918 2,252 1,130 17,741 300 1,100
48,719 8,488 4,777 6,515 4,777 2,866 3,646 1,809 872 13,373 344 1,251
38,166 4,833 4,578 2,264 5,136 3,293 2,062 1,570 1,264 10,730 1,602 835
32,628 3,634 3,684 1,843 5,560 2,490 2,659 1,224 1,040 7,663 1,906 925
(7.6) (5.6) (12.6) 10.8 (10.4) 6.7 (34.1) 7.3 (34.5) (37.4) 34.3 (6.9)
(19.9) (26.0) (26.4) (20.5) (20.0) (24.4) 29.0 (22.0) (17.7) (28.6) 19.0 10.8
12.5 10.6 24.1 10.8 9.6 10.6 14.9 10.3 10.3 8.8 6.2 8.7
15.4 14.3 32.8 13.6 12.0 14.1 11.6 13.2 12.5 12.3 5.2 7.9
6.0 4.4 5.9 5.2 5.7 6.9 7.2 6.1 6.9 0.8 14.7 5.6
6.4 5.3 7.1 6.0 4.7 8.9 5.7 7.4 8.3 1.1 11.5 5.0
3.8 2.0 6.8 1.9 4.4 3.7 1.8 11.3 1.1 5.4 1.4 1.5
3.6 1.9 6.2 1.5 4.4 3.5 1.6 10.9 1.1 5.0 1.2 1.3
4.9 4.8 1.7 1.3 9.9 5.3 5.8 6.3 2.9 0.0 6.0 5.7
4.5 3.7 1.7 2.7 8.3 5.6 3.8 6.8 2.4 0.0 8.0 6.3
28.7 21.1 nc 239.6 nc nc nc nc nc 62.5 44.9 nc
20.3 2.6 nc 194.2 nc nc nc nc nc 42.4 35.4 nc
36.0 21.1 50.9 42.0 50.0 39.2 20.9 59.1 17.0 23.2 23.7 19.4
33.6 22.6 42.2 32.8 47.1 37.9 23.6 52.8 15.9 25.8 24.4 19.1
MEDIA SC MA MINING ADRO BYAN BUMI ITMG PTBA INC O HRUM ANTM BORN INDY TINS
N REDUC E REDUC E REDUC E REDUC E HOLD HOLD REDUC E REDUC E REDUC E UR REDUC E
1,560 11,600 1,160 37,700 15,200 2,900 6,000 1,360 570 1,910 1,450
1,120 6,000 1,080 29,750 13,100 2,400 5,300 1,100 480 3,200 1,200
31,986 3,333 20,773 1,130 2,304 9,936 2,704 9,538 17,693 5,210 5,033
40.2 5.1 70.8 35.0 35.0 21.2 29.8 35.0 27.0 36.5 35.0
275,626 49,898 38,667 24,097 42,598 35,023 28,815 16,221 12,972 10,085 9,951 7,298
OIL & GAS PGAS AKRA MEDC
N BUY HOLD BUY
3,475 3,600 1,800
4,400 4,700 3,200
24,242 3,851 3,332
43.0 40.7 41.0
104,103 84,239 13,865 5,998
159 104.6 43.6 11.2
49,250 23,203 24,835 1,212.0
61,490 28,798 31,434 1,257.8
9,507 8,263 985 260
10,603 9,079 1,248 276
7,367 6,513 791 63
8,406 7,342 997 67
(12.5) 9.7 51.9 (24.8)
13.8 12.7 52.9 2.5
13.4 12.9 17.4 10.4
11.7 11.5 13.8 10.1
9.4 7.9 11.8 24.9
8.2 6.9 9.3 23.9
4.1 4.4 3.6 1.4
3.5 3.7 3.2 1.4
4.0 4.3 2.9 1.9
4.3 4.6 3.6 1.9
10.6 nc nc 184.0
12.3 nc nc 213.1
31.7 35.9 17.6 6.0
31.6 35.2 19.8 7.9
PLANTATIONS AALI SIMP LSIP SGRO BWPT UNSP GZC O
N HOLD BUY HOLD UR BUY HOLD HOLD
20,300 1,310 2,650 3,050 1,500 193 295
18,500 1,650 2,350 4,100 1,950 300 320
1,575 15,816 6,823 1,890 4,043 13,720 5,000
20.3 20.3 40.5 33.0 37.9 95.2 39.8
86,720 31,967 20,719 18,081 5,765 6,065 2,648 1,475
123.0 23.0 11.4 32.7 8.4 27.9 16.9 2.8
40,737 11,787 14,249 4,999 3,193 1,116 4,741 651
46,216 12,664 15,557 5,335 3,595 1,523 6,772 769
10,903 2,897 3,402 2,027 580 583 1,232 182
12,301 3,147 3,732 2,184 809 816 1,389 222
7,194 2,116 1,825 1,708 444 381 536 185
8,129 2,294 2,013 1,846 619 508 641 207
(10.5) (12.1) 0.4 0.4 (18.0) 18.8 (29.0) 10.5
9.6 8.5 10.3 8.1 39.5 33.5 19.5 12.0
12.8 15.1 11.4 10.6 13.0 15.9 5.0 8.0
11.3 13.9 10.3 9.8 9.3 11.9 4.2 7.1
7.9 9.4 5.4 6.9 7.2 12.1 6.6 9.6
6.7 8.4 4.9 5.8 5.1 8.5 5.6 8.3
2.6 3.7 1.5 2.6 2.0 3.4 0.3 1.0
2.3 3.3 1.4 2.2 1.7 2.7 0.3 0.9
3.5 4.9 3.2 2.8 2.3 0.8 1.3 3.4
3.5 4.3 3.5 3.1 3.2 0.9 1.5 3.8
7.2 nc 4.9 nc nc 39.6 76.5 53.4
5.4 nc 6.0 nc nc 15.2 67.1 50.9
21.7 28.4 11.2 24.2 23.7 21.7 5.0 13.5
21.6 28.7 11.5 22.2 22.1 24.6 6.5 13.5
POULTRY C PIN JPFA
OW HOLD BUY
3,250 4,850
2,925 5,100
16,398 2,132
44.5 43.3
63,634 53,294 10,341
34.2 27.5 6.7
38,514 20,813 17,702
43,618 23,595 20,023
5,510 4,010 1,500
6,266 4,567 1,699
4,125 3,261 864
4,766 3,739 1,027
38.9 38.4 40.0
15.9 14.7 18.9
15.6 16.3 11.6
13.5 14.3 9.8
11.3 12.6 4.9
9.9 11.0 4.3
6.0 6.7 2.5
5.2 5.8 2.0
2.4 2.7 1.2
4.4 4.9 1.7
7.5 nc 46.1
5.0 nc 30.6
45.1 48.5 27.5
42.8 46.2 25.1
PROPERTY BSDE LPKR ASRI C TRA SMRA APLN SSIA C TRP KIJA LPC K
OW BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY HOLD HOLD BUY BUY BUY
1,200 800 500 660 1,580 335 1,010 660 188 3,250
1,810 1,110 880 950 2,350 430 1,100 910 285 5,000
17,497 23,078 19,649 15,166 6,873 20,501 84 6,150 19,817 696
40.0 82.1 53.9 61.3 70.0 30.0 79.5 43.9 44.0 54.4
91,819 20,996 18,462 9,825 10,009 10,860 6,868 4,752 4,059 3,726 2,262
261 50.6 35.0 43.0 16.0 20.8 10.5 41.4 6.0 16.1 21.3
28,547 3,375 4,999 2,268 2,983 2,936 4,453 3,329 670 1,950 1,583
35,648 3,973 5,733 3,132 4,183 3,739 5,258 3,738 1,021 2,484 2,387
8,421 1,165 1,190 1,188 713 747 1,194 765 265 642 553
11,112 1,403 1,426 1,624 1,091 941 1,373 1,112 439 836 866
5,777 1,038 838 598 444 501 660 531 230 471 465
7,432 1,286 994 599 628 627 776 834 301 624 763
42.9 23.5 18.4 48.3 36.4 27.8 13.6 106.1 45.2 44.4 80.6
38.9 23.9 18.5 41.2 41.5 25.2 17.5 57.2 30.6 32.6 64.1
17.6 20.2 22.0 10.0 22.6 21.7 10.4 9.0 17.6 7.9 4.9
13.9 16.3 18.6 7.1 15.9 17.3 8.9 5.7 13.5 6.0 3.0
11.0 13.7 13.5 6.9 11.2 13.6 3.9 5.3 13.9 7.0 4.3
8.5 11.0 11.7 4.6 7.3 10.8 2.5 3.5 10.1 5.1 2.5
2.3 2.7 1.9 2.3 1.8 3.8 1.4 3.0 1.1 0.9 1.8
2.0 2.4 1.8 1.8 1.7 3.2 1.3 2.0 1.0 0.8 1.1
1.3 1.0 1.1 2.5 1.3 0.9 1.7 1.0 1.7 2.6 0.0
1.8 1.3 1.3 3.5 1.9 1.2 1.9 2.0 2.2 3.8 0.0
12.9 nc 16.2 nc nc 22.8 67.2 nc nc 38.6 15.3
16.3 nc 28.9 0.1 0.4 32.5 69.2 nc 2.0 26.1 11.2
13.9 12.7 8.2 24.6 7.7 14.5 13.8 32.9 5.0 10.8 29.9
14.2 15.3 7.8 21.1 8.6 14.2 15.1 30.7 5.8 12.7 29.2
SHIPPING WINS
N BUY
450
620
3,557
26.5
1,601 1,601
2 1.6
1,046 1,046
1,220 1,220
243 243
21.4 21.4
51.1 51.1
9.9 9.9
6.6 6.6
7.6 7.6
5.2 5.2
1.2 1.2
1.1 1.1
1.7 1.7
2.0 2.0
79.6 79.6
73.5 73.5
12.2 12.2
14.8 14.8
244,549 163,296 52,437 23,094 5,723
202 174.1 14.9 7.1 6.1
120,048 75,452 20,091 21,667 2,838
126,138 78,704 21,414 23,028 2,992
13.8 13.7 16.5 13.9 (8.0)
12.6 12.6 14.5 13.1 (8.3)
5.0 4.6 6.3 3.0 11.6
4.7 4.4 5.7 2.9 11.3
2.8 2.8 3.3 1.2 1.5
2.5 2.6 2.8 1.1 1.9
3.3 3.7 2.1 3.6 0.0
3.7 4.0 3.1 3.8 0.0
42.9 28.6 41.6 119.8 150.7
27.1 21.8 11.6 55.8 205.3
19.5 21.6 21.3 9.6 (17.6)
19.3 20.9 22.7 9.7 (20.7)
530 530
1 1.2
1,686 1,686
1,911 1,911
48 48
83 83
33 33
61 61
81.9 81.9
28.9 87.3
16.3 16.3
8.7 8.7
11.9 11.9
7.0 7.0
1.1 1.1
1.0 1.0
2.5 2.5
4.6 4.6
nc nc
nc nc
6.6 6.6
12.1 12.1
40,640 36,720 3,920 2,615,969
74 67.0 7.2 2,893
6,744 5,815 928 1,270,036
7,634 6,638 996 1,406,580
3,221 2,704 517 280,754
3,646 3,087 560 298,967
1,912 1,529 383 198,596
2,121 1,704 417 216,888
13.5 14.1 7.3 8.7
11.2 11.4 8.8 9.5
22.7 24.0 10.2 15.9
20.4 21.5 9.4 14.3
13.0 13.8 6.0 7.9
11.8 12.5 5.3 7.0
3.8 4.0 1.6 5.7
3.4 3.6 1.4 4.8
2.0 1.8 4.0 2.6
2.3 2.1 4.3 2.9
89.0 98.5 nc 18.7
87.3 96.6 nc 13.9
19.1 19.2 18.5 30.8
19.7 19.9 17.9 29.8
TELCOS TLKM EXC L ISAT BTEL TINPLATE NIKL TOLL ROAD JSMR C MNP Market Note: *Total,
N ** HOLD REDUC E REDUC E N UR N BUY BUY OW
285 8,100 6,150 4,250 197
** 5,500 4,500 50
20,160 8,526 5,434 29,048
48.8 20.2 29.9 75.0
210
380
2,523
24.9
5,400 1,960
6,500 2,700
6,800 2,000
30.0 89.6
226 226 31,232 23,461 4,796 3,224 (249)
346 346 33,175 24,527 5,327 3,481 (160)
161 161 16,029 11,906 3,163 1,661 (700)
17,293 12,612 3,596 1,765 (679)
12.0 8.6 11.8 98.9 10.2
9.2 8.4 13.7 6.3 (3.0)
**In regard to the engagement letter from the companies, PT. Bahana Securities will not produce the companies’ ratings and target prices during the engagement period to ensure the opinions given are fair and reasonable.
OW: Overweight, N: Neutral, UW: Underweight, UR: Under Review
*** Theoretical ex-rights price based on current price
++ Post-rights
PT Bahana Securities – Equity Research – Bahana Beacon - The Daily
5
Global Business and Economic Indicators Agenda Date Time 06/28/2012 06/28/2012 06/28/2012 06/28/2012 06/28/2012 06/28/2012 06/28/2012 06/28/2012 06/28/2012 06/28/2012 06/28/2012 06/28/2012 06/28/2012 06/28/2012 06/28/2012 06/28/2012 06/28/2012 06/28/2012 06/28/2012 06/28/2012 06/28/2012
Country 06:50 06:50 06:50 08:30 13:00 14:00 14:00 14:00 15:00 15:30 15:30 16:00 18:00 19:30 19:30 19:30 19:30 20:45 22:00
JN JN JN AU UK HU SP TH IT UK UK IT BZ US US US US US US IS RU
Event
Period Consensus
Retail Trade YoY Retail Trade MoM SA Large Retailers' Sales Job vacancies Nat'wide House prices nsa(YoY) Unemployment Rate Consumer Price Index (YoY) Mfg. Production Index ISIC SA PPI (YoY) GDP (YoY) Total Business Investment(YoY) CPI - EU Harmonized (YoY) FGV Inflation IGP-M (YoY) GDP QoQ (Annualized) Personal Consumption Initial Jobless Claims Continuing Claims Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity Unemployment Rate Gold & Forex Reserve USD
MAY MAY MAY MAY JUN MAY JUN P MAY MAY 1Q F 1Q F JUN P JUN 1Q T 1Q T Jun-12 Jun-12 Jun-12 JUN MAY Jun-12
0 0.20% -0.01 --0.60% 0.113 0.019 -0.03 0.00 0.14 3.40% 0.0506 0.019 0.027 385K 3280K -4 ---
Actual 0 0.70% -0.01 -------------------
Prior 0 0.00 -0.01 0.007 -0.007 0.115 0.019 180.07 0.03 0.00 0 3.50% 0.04 0.019 0.027 387K 3299K -37.9 9.00 0.07 512.2B
Global Economic Forecasts and Calendar Indicator Indonesia CPI – inflation (%, y-y) GDP (%, y-y) Reference rate (%) FX reserves (USDb) China CPI – inflation (%, y-y) GDP (%, y-y) Reference rate (%) Unemployment rate (%) Japan CPI – inflation (%, y-y) GDP (%, y-y) Reference rate (%) Unemployment rate (%) India CPI – inflation (%, y-y) GDP (%, y-y) Reference rate (%) Singapore CPI – inflation (%, y-y) GDP (%, y-y) Reference rate (%) Unemployment rate (%) Malaysia CPI – inflation (%, y-y) GDP (%, y-y) Reference rate (%) Unemployment rate (%) Thailand CPI – inflation (%, y-y) GDP (%, y-y) Reference rate (%) Unemployment rate (%) US CPI – inflation (%, y-y) GDP (%, y-y) Reference Rate (%) Unemployment rate (%)
Period
Release
Previous
Consensus
Jan 4Q Feb Jan
½ 2/7 2/9 2/12
4.8 6.5 6.00 110.1
4.7 6.5 6.00 -
4.7 6.5 5.75 112.0
Jan 4Q Feb Sep
2/11 2/20 -
4.1 9.1 6.6 4.1
4.4 8.9 -
4.5 8.9 6.6 4.1
Des 4Q Feb Des
1/31 2/14 2/28
-0.5 -0.5 0.1 4.5
-0.2 0.1 4.5
-0.2 -1.0 0.1 4.6
Jan 4Q Feb
2/3 2/3 2/13
8.4 8.4 7.5
7.1 7.5
9.4 6.9 7.5
Jan 4Q Feb Des
2/13 2/10 2/2
5.7 6.0 0.01 2.0
5.5 3.9 2.1
5.5 3.6 0.01 2.0
Des 4Q Feb Des
2/8 2/11 2/12 1/31
3.3 5.8 3.00 3.0
3.1 5.4 3.00 -
3.0 5.2 3.00 3.1
Jan 4Q Feb Dec
2/2 2/13 2/11 1/12
3.5 3.7 3.25 0.6
3.4 1.6 3.00 -
3.4 -9.0 3.00 0.8
Jan 4Q Feb Jan
2/10 2/3 2/5 2/6
0.0 1.5 0.25 8.5
0.1 0.25 9.4
0.2 1.6 0.25 8.3
Actual
Source: Bloomberg
PT Bahana Securities – Equity Research – Bahana Beacon - The Daily
6
AGM & EGM SCHEDULE Corporate Actions AGM AEGM AGM AEGM AGM AGM AGM
Corporate Rimo Catur Lestari Katarina Utama Sierad Produce Hotel Sahid Jaya International Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Bhuwanatala Indah Permai Bank Himpunan Saudara
Date 7/3/2012 7/14/2012 7/17/2012 7/17/2012 7/18/2012 7/25/2012 7/27/2012
Time 10:00 10:00 10:00 10:00 09:30 14:00 15:00
Source: Bloomberg
DIVIDEND SCHEDULE Corporate
Price (IDR) 17,200 1,080 5,700 4,775 1,280 1,480 5,700 790 4,100 2,250 355 11,000 4,100 335 260 123 32 165 8 36 46 1,550 150 54 239 120.5 62.5 174 34
Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Bumi Resources Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Indofood Sukses Makmur Aneka Tambang Persero Asuransi Ramayana Indospring Bisi International Elang Mahkota Teknologi Gajah Tunggal J.A. Wattie Goodyear Indonesia Elang Mahkota Jaya Agra Wattie Suparma Agung Podomoroland Tunas Baru Lampung Sampoerna Agro Colorpak Indonesia Citra Marga Nusaphala Fastfood Indonesia Plaza Indonesia Japfa Comfeed Indonesia Mandala Multifinance Krakatau Steel Alam Sutera Realty Bakrie Sumatera Plantations Bumi Serpong Damai Unggul Indah Cahaya Source: Bloomberg
Cash (IDR) 293 14 169 175 91 43 114 10 100 10 10 260 100 10 8 6 6.5 87.3 27.1 18 100 85 75 41 15 6.13 4.5 10 90
Yield (%) 1.7% 1.3% 3.0% 3.7% 7.1% 2.9% 2.0% 1.3% 2.4% 0.4% 2.7% 2.4% 2.4% 2.9% 3.1% 2.0% 1.3% 0.0% 1.6% 0.9% 0.0% 5.5% 1.7% 0.0% 2.0% 1.1% 2.6% 0.9% 0.0%
Ex date 6/19/2012 6/20/2012 7/16/2012 7/18/2012 6/28/2012 6/19/2012 6/19/2012 6/19/2012 6/20/2012 6/20/2012 6/20/2012 6/21/2012 6/19/2012 6/20/2012 6/21/2012 6/28/2012 7/6/2012 7/6/2012 7/13/2012 7/6/2012 7/19/2012 8/14/2012 8/15/2012 7/19/2012 7/11/2012
Record date 6/21/2012 6/22/2012 7/18/2012 7/20/2012 7/2/2012 6/21/2012 6/21/2012 6/21/2012 6/22/2012 6/22/2012 6/22/2012 6/25/2012 6/22/2012 6/22/2012 6/25/2012 7/2/2012 7/10/2012 7/10/2012 7/17/2012 7/23/2012 8/16/2012 8/23/2012 7/23/2012 -
Payment date 7/5/2012 7/6/2012 7/31/2012 8/3/2012 7/16/2012 7/5/2012 7/5/2012 7/5/2012 7/6/2012 7/6/2012 7/5/2012 7/9/2012 7/6/2012 7/5/2012 7/9/2012 7/16/2012 7/24/2012 7/20/2012 7/31/2012 7/24/2012 7/24/2012 9/5/2012 9/6/2012 8/6/2012 7/27/2012
Ticker INTP BUMI ICBP INDF ANTM ASRM INDS BISI EMTK GJTL JAWA GDYR EMTK JAWA SPMA APLN TBLA SGRO CLPK CMNP FAST PLIN JPFA MFIN KRAS ASRI UNSP BSDE UNIC
*Interim Dividend
COMPANY/SITE VISITS/EVENTS Date
Time
Description
PT Bahana Securities – Equity Research – Bahana Beacon - The Daily
Analyst
7
IJ IJ IJ IJ IJ IJ IJ IJ IJ IJ IJ IJ IJ IJ IJ IJ IJ IJ IJ IJ IJ IJ IJ IJ IJ IJ IJ IJ IJ
Actual and upcoming IPOs, 2011-2012 No
Code
1 EMDE 2 MBTO 3 GIAA 1Q11 total 4 MBSS 5 SRAJ 6 HDFA 7 BULL 8 JAWA 9 SIMP 10 MTLA 2Q11 total 11 TIFA 12 SDMU 13 PTIS 14 ALDO 15 STAR 16 SMRU 17 SUPR 18 ARII 19 GEMS 20 VIVA 21 CASS 22 ABMM 23 ERAA 24 GWSA 25 BAJA 2011 total 27 PADI 28 TELE 29 ESSA 30 BEST 31 RANC 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 2012 total Grand total
Date
Company name
Industry
1/12/11 1/13/11 2/11/11
Megapolitan Development Martina Berto Garuda Indonesia
Property Cosmetics Aviation
4/6/11 4/11/11 5/11/11 5/23/11 5/30/11 6/9/11 6/20/11
Mitra Bahtera Segara Sejati Sejahteraraya Anugrahjaya HD Finance Buana Listya Tama Jaya Agra Wattie Salim Ivomas Metropolitan Land
7/8/11 7/12/11 7/12/11 7/12/11 7/13/11 10/10/11 10/11/11 11/8/11 11/17/11 11/21/11 12/05/11 12/06/11 12/14/11 12/23/11 12/21/11
Tifa Finance Sidomulyo Selaras Indo Straits Alkindo Naratama Star Petrochem SMR Utama Solusi Tunas Pratama Atlas Resources Golden Energy Visi Media Asia Cardig Aero Service ABM Investama Erajaya Swasembada Greenwood Sejahtera Sarana Central Bajatama
1/9/12 1/12/12 2/1/12 4/10/12 5/14/12
Minna Padi Investama Tiphone Mobile Indonesia Surya Esa Perkasa Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estates Supra Boga Lestari Semen Baturaja Express Transindo Utama Pertamina Drilling Service Geothermal Energy Garuda Maintenance Facility Air Asia Indonesia Bumi Kencana Eka Sakti Cipaganti group Aditech Cakrawiyasa Tugu Pratama MNC Sky Vision Riau Baraharum Waskita Karya Bahtera Niaga Internasional Telesindo Shop PLN Enjiniring Prima Jaya Kreasi Asuransi Mitra Maparya Newmont Nusa Tenggara Bank Jatim Lion Air Bank Sulut Bank Mitraniaga Hutama Karya Toba Bara Sejahtera Angkasa Pura I GarudaFood Intan Baruprana Mitratel Tri Banyan Krakatau Wajatama Bank Sumut Eka Sari Lorena Transport Trisula International
Coal shipping Hospital management Motorcycle financing Shipping Plantation Agribusiness Property Finance Transportation Shipping Paper processing Plastic Manufacture Mining Telecommunication Mining Mining Media Aviation service Coal mining Cellular distribution Property Steel Financial market Cellular distribution Petroleum gas Industrial estates Retail Cement Transportation Oil & gas services Energy Aviation service Aviation Coal mining Transportation Household goods Insurance Media Coal mining Construction Shipping Telecommunication Electricity Entertainment Insurance Mining Banks Aviation Banks Banks Construction Mining Airport services Food & beverage Heavy equipment financing Telecommunication Consumer Steel Banks Transportation Fashion distribution
PT Bahana Securities – Equity Research – Bahana Beacon - The Daily
Amount (IDRb) 213 263 4,751 5,227 280 90 92 1,030 566 3,480 455 5,993 56 74 96 34 204 300 340 975 2,205 4,480 125 2,566 3,000 14,455 119 419 153 300 156 1,000 500 1,800 1,000 750 250 750 2,700 5,000 900 200 300 300 300 8,500 1,000 9,000 300 200 3,440 250 800 113 40,500 66,175
Public (%) 25.4 33.2 26.0 12.5 13.5 29.9 39.8 30.0 20.0 30.0 25.8 30.0 18.2 27.3 41.0 33.3 16.7 25.0 15.0 14.2 15.0 20.0 40.0 35.0 22.2 23.1 25.2 31.3 20.1 20.0 30.0 20.0 20.0 35.0-40.0 20.0-30.0 25.0 20.0-25.0 35.0 40.0 20.0-30.0 35.0 20.0-30.0 25.0 30.0 30.0 40.0 20.0-40.0 30.0
8
Actual and upcoming rights issues, 2010-2011 No
Code
1 BMRI 2 AMRT 3 BBKP 4 PBRX 5 EPMT 1Q11 total 6 ABDA 7 INDS 8 UNTR 9 DOID 10 BVIC 2Q11 total 11 IMAS 12 KREN 13 APIC 14 LPPS 15 BDMN 16 AISA 17 AMAG 18 KIJA 19 BEKS 20 CFIN 21 PNLF 22 DKFT 23 PWON 24 PSAB 25 MDLN 26 MASA 2H11 total 27 ASRI 28 ATPK 29 FREN 30 APOL 31 BSIM 32 AMRT 33 KIAS 34 SUGI 35 RAJA 36 NISP 37 MITI 38 RAJA 39 OKAS 40 TPIA 41 INTA 42 IGAR 43 SMMA 44 CMNP 45 BKSL 46 BABP 2012 total Grand total
Ex-rights date
Company name
Industry
01/26/11 01/24/11 01/20/11 01/24/11 02/01/11
Bank Mandiri Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Bank Bukopin Pan Brothers Enseval Putra Megatrading
04/28/11 05/16/11 06/03/11 06/27/11 06/27/11
Asuransi Bina Dana Arta Indospring United Tractors Delta Dunia Makmur Bank Victoria
Insurance Automotive components Heavy equipment Mining contracting Banks
07/01/11 07/08/11 07/05/11 07/06/11 09/28/11 10/02/11 10/04/11 10/14/11 10/21/11 10/24/11 11/03/11 12/02/11 12/09/11 12/23/11 12/23/11 12/28/11
Indomobil Sukses Internasional Kresna Graha Securindo Pasific Strategic Financial Lippo Securities Bank Danamon Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Food Asuransi Multi Artha Guna Kawasan Industri Jababeka Bank Pundi Indonesia Clipan Finance Panin Financial Central Omega Resources Pakuwon Jati Pelita Sejahtera Abadi Moderland Realty Multistrada Arah Sarana
Automotive Financial Financial Finance Banks Consumer Insurance Construction Banks Financing Financial Mining Property Trading Property Automotive components
01/25/12 01/27/12 02/22/12 02/23/12 03/15/12 03/12/12 03/16/12 05/11/12 05/29/12 05/30/12
Alam Sutera Realty ATPK Resources Smartfren Telecom Arpeni Pratama Ocean Line Bank Sinarmas Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Keramika Indonesia Asosiasi Sugih Energy Rukun Raharja Bank OCBC NISP Mitra Investindo Rukun Raharja Ancora Indonesia Chandra Asri Intraco Penta Champion pacific Indonesia Sinar Mas Multi Artha Citra Marga Nushapala Sentul City ICB Bumiputera
Banks Retail Banks Textile Pharmacy distribution
Property Coal mining Telecommunication Transportation Banks Retail Ceramics, Glass, Porcelain Energy Energy Banks Granite Property Mining Petrochemical Heavy equipment Basic industry Financial Toll road Property Banks
Amount (IDRb) 11,684 1,039 1,066 433 300 14,522 144 188 6,100 1,200 199 7,831 2,770 106 286 206 4,998 702 215 1,509 500 469 499 984 1,304 1,444 802 1,500 18,294 1,336 343 863 2,427 230 1,506 450 203 135 3,600 4,287 135 1,600 240 334 150 17,839 58,486
Source: Various media
PT Bahana Securities – Equity Research – Bahana Beacon - The Daily
9
1Q12 Results Round – ups No
Company
Operating profit (IDRb)
Code
1 Gajah Tunggal GJTL 2 Lippo Cikarang LPCK 3 Ciputra Property CTRP 4 Perusahaan Gas Negara* PGAS 5 Alam Sutera Realty ASRI 6 Surya Semesta Internusa SSIA 7 Cita Marga Nusaphala CMNP 8 Summarecon Agung SMRA 9 Ramayana Lestari Sentosa RALS 10 Bumi Serpong Damai BSDE 11 Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur ICBP 12 Charoen Pokphand Indonesia CPIN 13 Wintermar Offshore Marine WINS 14 Bank Rakyat Indonesia BBRI 15 Kalbe Farma KLBF 16 Indofood Sukses Makmur INDF 17 Bank Tabungan Negara BBTN 18 Bank Mandiri BMRI 19 Ciputra Development CTRA 20 Jasa Marga JSMR 21 United Tractors UNTR 22 Unilever Indonesia UNVR 23 Indomobil Sukses International IMAS 24 Bank Danamon BDMN 25 Semen Gresik SMGR 26 Pelat Timah Nusantara NIKL 27 Total Bangun Persada TOTL 28 AKR Corporindo AKRA 29 Harum Energy HRUM 30 Gudang Garam GGRM 31 Astra International ASII 32 Timah TINS 33 Mitra Adiperkasa MAPI 34 Salim Ivomas Pratama SIMP 35 Wijaya Karya WIKA 36 BW Plantation BWPT 37 Xl Axiata EXCL 38 Cardig Aero Service CASS 39 Bank Jabar Banten BJBR 40 Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa INTP 41 Gozco Plantations GZCO 42 Surya Citra Media SCMA 43 Bank Central Asia BBCA 44 Japfa Comfeed Indonesia JPFA 45 Bank Bukopin BBKP 46 Pembangunan Perumahan PTPP 47 Bukit Asam PTBA 48 Aneka Tambang ANTM 49 Nippon Sari Corporindo ROTI 50 Adaro Energy* ADRO 51 Kawasan Industri Jababeka KIJA 52 PP London Sumatra LSIP 53 Astra Agro Lestari AALI 54 Bayan Resources* BYAN 55 Adhi Karya ADHI 56 Vale Indonesia* INCO 57 Sampoerna Agro SGRO 58 Garuda Indonesia* GIAA 59 Delta Dunia Makmur DOID Source: Bloomberg, Company, Bahana estimates
Actual 393 102 78 277 371 272 103 205 24 245 794 1,050 63 5,147 515 2 433 4,316 147 688 1,932 1,570 155 1,385 1,256 (7) 27 197 625 1,743 4,660 287 113 737 150 120 1,178 60 374 1,208 15 217 2,819 362 235 58 1,004 353 41 262 82 324 531 52 34 15 80 (7) 113 *In USDm
Bahana 301 91 55 225 297 214 124 164 26 245 692 926 53 4,616 468 1,502 396 4,282 135 676 1,958 1,518 222 1,488 1,227 (6) 30 197 622 1,734 4,956 283 106 855 149 134 1,137 61 376 1,428 38 262 3,225 376 263 72 1,173 463 50 356 103 480 666 75 45 11 194 7 180
(%) 130.6 112.4 141.1 122.7 125.1 127.2 82.9 125.0 90.3 100.0 114.8 111.3 120.1 111.5 110.2 118.2 109.4 100.8 108.7 101.8 98.7 103.4 69.6 93.1 102.4 88.6 90.0 99.9 100.5 100.5 94.0 101.4 106.2 95.4 100.3 89.4 103.6 97.8 99.5 84.6 39.5 82.8 87.4 96.3 89.5 80.7 85.6 76.2 82.2 73.5 79.5 67.5 79.0 69.9 75.4 142.8 41.5 (58.3) 62.8
PT Bahana Securities – Equity Research – Bahana Beacon - The Daily
Net profit (IDRb) Comment Above Above Above Above Above Above Below Above Below In line Above Above Above In line In line Above In line In line Above In line In line In line Below In line In line Below Below In line In line In line In line In line Above Below In line Below In line In line In line Below Below Below Below Below Below Below Below Below Below Below Below Below Below Below Below Below Below Below Below
Actual 254 90 72 276 345 262 80 150 40 265 591 784 39 4,233 403 815 313 3,403 83 411 1,527 1,163 237 900 1,011 (11) 31 160 424 1,209 4,647 208 58 418 95 82 667 19 270 1,000 34 163 2,304 185 181 28 871 379 32 121 53 299 378 33 5 4 61 (11) (96)
Bahana (%) 111 229.1 44 203.3 44 165.4 181 152.2 245 140.8 187 139.9 57 138.6 115 129.9 33 121.8 218 121.6 496 119.3 726 108.1 37 105.1 3,749 112.9 360 112.0 732 109.9 286 109.4 3,216 105.8 80 104.3 398 103.3 1,500 101.8 1,144 101.7 235 100.5 897 100.3 1,010 100.1 (11) 100.1 32 99.0 162 98.9 435 97.5 1,243 97.3 4,786 97.1 215 96.8 61 95.3 437 108.2 100 94.7 88 93.9 718 93.0 20 92.9 296 91.5 1,095 91.3 37 90.9 181 90.1 2,589 89.0 210 88.3 207 87.6 32 86.6 1,007 86.4 443 85.5 40 81.1 157 77.2 71 74.5 404 74.0 487 69.3 51 64.8 8 59.4 9 42.7 148 41.5 12 (161.0) 19 na
Comment Above Above Above Above Above Above Above Above Above Above Above Above Above In line In line In line In line In line In line In line In line In line In line In line In line In line In line In line In line In line In line In line In line Below Below Below Below Below Below Below Below Below Below Below Below Below Below Below Below Below Below Below Below Below Below Below Below Below Below
10
Research: +62 21 250 5081
Harry Su
[email protected] Head of Research Strategy, Telcos, Consumer, Aviation ext 3600 direct: +62 21 250 5735
Teguh Hartanto
[email protected] Deputy Head of Research Banks, Cement ext 3610
Leonardo Henry Gavaza
[email protected] Research Analyst Automotive, Plantations, Metal Mining, Heavy Equipment ext 3608
Natalia Sutanto
[email protected] Research Analyst Property, Toll Road ext 3601
Irwan Budiarto
[email protected] Research Analyst Coal, Oil and Gas ext 3606
Arga Samudro
[email protected] Economist ext 3602
Aditya Eka Prakasa
[email protected] Research Analyst Poultry ext 3603
Stifanus Sulistyo
[email protected] Research Analyst Small cap ext 3611
Zefanya Angeline
[email protected] Research Associate ext 3612
Anthony Alexander
[email protected] Research Analyst Construction ext 3613
Salman Fajari Alamsyah
[email protected] Research Associate ext 3605
Isna Alfiathi
[email protected] Research Executive ext 3607
Giovanni Aristo
[email protected] Research Associate ext 3604
Nico Laurens
[email protected] Research Associate ext 3604
Chandra Widjanarka
[email protected] Technical Analyst ext 3609
Dealing Room: +62 21 250 5508
Yolanda Sondak
[email protected] Head of Equity Sales and Trading ext 2545
Haselinda Rifman
[email protected] Equity Sales ext 2524
Suwardi Widjaja
[email protected] Equity Sales ext 2548
Tjokro Wongso
[email protected] Equity Sales ext 2547
John M. Dasaad
[email protected] Equity Sales ext 2549
Ashish Agrawal
[email protected] Equity Sales ext 2553
Yohanes Adhi Handoko
[email protected] Manager, Surabaya Branch ext 7250
Head Office Graha Niaga, 19th Floor Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 58 Jakarta 12190 Indonesia Tel. 62 21 250 5081 Fax. 62 21 522 6049
http://www.bahana.co.id
Surabaya Branch Wisma BII, Ground Floor Jl. Pemuda 60-70 Surabaya 60271 Indonesia Tel. 62 31 535 2788 Fax. 62 31 546 1157
DISCLAIMER The information contained in this report has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. However, none of P.T. Bahana Securities and/or its affiliated companies and/or their respective employees and/or agents makes any representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any responsibility or liability as to, or in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any other such information or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue thereof. We expressly disclaim any responsibility or liability (express or implied) of P.T. Bahana Securities, its affiliated companies and their respective employees and agents whatsoever and howsoever arising (including, without limitation for any claims, proceedings, action , suits, losses, expenses, damages or costs) which may be brought against or suffered by any person as a results of acting in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this report and neither P.T. Bahana Securities, its affiliated companies or their respective employees or agents accepts liability for any errors, omissions or mis-statements, negligent or otherwise, in the report and any liability in respect of the report or any inaccuracy therein or omission there from which might otherwise arise is hereby expresses disclaimed. The information contained in this report is not be taken as any recommendation made by P.T. Bahana Securities or any other person to enter into any agreement with regard to any investment mentioned in this document. This report is prepared for general circulation. It does not have regards to the specific person who may receive this report. In considering any investments you should make your own independent assessment and seek your own professional financial and legal advice.
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