BANKING IN CEE AND THE ROLE OF INTERNATIONAL PLAYERS
July 2006
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
All around the CEE region, the banking sector is characterised by widespread relevance of foreign capital. A limited number of international players considers the region as a second home market. Such international players are among the top players in several countries of the region and profit from a widespread cross-regional network.
While structural transformation is almost completed in most of the traditional destinations, additional markets are
gradually opening and represent the new opportunity for international players. In particular, we view Russia, Turkey, Ukraine as the new frontiers of a regional strategy. The consolidation process at the international level represents another significant driver for structural transformation in the region, like in the case of the UniCredit-HVB merger, which brought to the creation of the by far largest player at the regional level and to a renewed process of consolidation at the single country level.
The CEE region represents a fast growing market of more than 1,000 billion euro of total banking assets, with still bright prospects for growth, given the persistently favourable macroeconomic environment and relative underpenetration compared to Eurozone countries
Loans financial deepening is increasing, fuelled by both demand and supply factors, resulting in a significant increase of loans over GDP ratio from 24% to 32% in the 2000-2005 period (CEE12). Lending growth has been particularly fast in SEE countries and Russia followed by Turkey. Fast lending expansion is expected to continue, driven by the retail segment and sustained by favourable corporate lending performance. The fastest dynamic is expected in Russia, Serbia, Turkey and Romania.
Increasing financial deepening on the lending side has been accompanied by substantially stable pattern in
deposits. In the years to come, acceleration of investment activities and portfolio diversification are expected to lead to a reduction in the deposit over GDP ratio in Central Europe (Poland, the Czech R., Hungary, Croatia and Slovakia) while still a good dynamic is expected in the rest of the region
Overall, the banking profitability outlook remains positive 2
AGENDA
Evolution of banking systems in CEE Presence and ranking of international banking groups in the region Relevance and positioning of international players at single country level
3
MORE THAN 1,000 € BLN MARKET IN TERMS OF TOTAL ASSETS, WITH LARGELY INTERNATIONAL BANKS AND STILL IMPORTANT GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES 2005i
No. of banks(1)
Total Assets(3)
Market share Foreign banks
TOP 3(2)
Total Gross Loans
Total Deposits
€ bln
% of GDP
€ bln
% of GDP
€ bln
% of GDP
EU Members 61(4)
70%(4)
37%(4)
152
60%
77
30%
99
39%
Hungary
34
84%(5)
38%
75
87%
46
53%
37
43%
Czech Republic
36
85%(6)
56%
102
99%
40
39%
65
63%
Slovakia
23
98%
47%
37
96%
14
36%
21
55%
Slovenia
22(6)
50%
29
107%
15
56%
16
57%
Estonia
13
88%
12
112%
6
56%
5
47%
54%
16(7)
123%
7
55%
4
31%
67%
13
63%
7
32%
6
28%
Poland
Latvia Lithuania
23 12
(6)
19%
99% 58% (8)
86%
EU Candidates Croatia
34
91%
54%
35
114%
21
68%
19
61%
Bulgaria
34
76%
34%(9)
17
78%
9
43%
10
49%
Romania
39
88%(10)
50%(11)
35(7)
45%
17
22%
22
28%
Turkey
31
19%
45%
249
81%
96(16)
31%
152
50%
Others Russia
1,205(15)
9%
39%
285(7)
45%
159
25%
156
25%
Serbia
40(12)
66%
36%
9
48%
5
27%
5
25%
Bosnia-Herzegovina
33
89%/98%(13)
54%(14)
6(7)
81%
4
51%
4
47%
Ukraine
165
n.a.
n.a.
36
50%
23
32%
18
25%
1,805
46%(17)
50%(18)
1,108
66%
545
33%
638
38%
6,403(6)
25%(6)
-
17,895
224%
9,141(16)
115%
7,395
93%
Total CEE 17 Euro Area
4 Sources: local Central Banks, ECB, Banking Associations and Supervisory Authorities and Unicredit-NE Research Network (i) All banking systems’ figures converted using eop exchange rates vs €; nominal GDP converted using avg exchange rates
(1) Including commercial and savings banks, foreign bank branches while excl. cooperatives; (2) Based on unconsolidated figures unless otherwise stated; market shares are based on net assets figures according to local accounting standards; (3) Figures are expressed as net values unless otherwise stated; (4) As of Q3 2005; (5) Based on gross assets; (6) As of 2004; (7) Gross figures; (8) Based on share capital of Lithuanian Banks owned by foreign investors; (9) Based on IAS results; (10) Including BCR; (11) Including HVB Tiriac & UCR proforma; (12) Excluding OFIs; (13) Data refer to Rep of Srpska; (14) For Hypo Alpe Adria, market share based on Group’s results; (15) Excluding non-bank credit organisations; (16) Based on net figures; (17) Excluding Ukraine; (18) Unweighted average
DEMAND AND SUPPLY FACTORS (BOTH STRUCTURAL AND CYCLICAL) BEHIND LENDING GROWTH
Evolution of banking loans in CEE-12(1) (% of GDP)
Total loans’ volumes growth(2) (2000 =100, in € terms) CAGR ’00-’08 1,500
50%
Central Europe (Poland,Czech R.,Hungary,Slovakia) SEE (Croatia,Slovenia,Serbia,Bosnia,Romania,Bulgaria)
40%
40% 35%
Russia
37%
Turkey
32%
30%
Russia 39% p.a.
1,000
28% 24%
24%
25% 22%
20% 500
SEE 21% p.a. Turkey 12% p.a.
10%
CE 12% p.a.
0
0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006f 2007f 2008f
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006f 2007f 2008f 5 Sources: Unicredit-NE Research Network based on local Central Banks’ data (1) Including Poland, Czech R., Hungary, Slovakia, Slovenia, Romania, Bulgaria, Croatia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Serbia, Russia and Turkey; excl. Ukraine and the baltics; (2)Total loans include general govt, non-financial corporations and retail and where available non-profit institutions serving households (NPISHs) and Non-MFIs
TWO DIGITS LENDING GROWTH LEADING TO FAST INCREASES IN BANKING PENETRATION ON THE ASSETS SIDE (+2.7% OF GDP ON AVERAGE PER YEAR), HOWEVER WITH STRONG CROSS COUNTRIES DIFFERENCES
Evolution of banking
loans1
% country over CEE loans
by country (% of GDP)
2008 Poland Turkey Croatia Russia Bulgaria Czech Republic Hungary Romania Slovakia Bosnia Slovenia Serbia CEE-12
100 2005
2008 79
80
78
68 63
62
60 50
40 30
32
36
51
46
43
42
56
53 42
39
36 31
31 25
42
27
40 32
22
20
0 Poland
Turkey Croatia
Russia Bulgaria Czech R. Hungary Romania Slovakia Bosnia Slovenia Serbia
6 Sources: Unicredit-NE Research Network based on local Central Banks’ data (1) Total loans include general govt, non-financial corporations, households and where available NPISHs and Non-MFIs
CEE-12
11% 16% 3% 45% 2% 6% 7% 4% 2% 1% 3% 1% -
Total loans CAGR '05-'08 (loc. currency) 10% 27% 13% 34% 16% 14% 13% 25% 14% 17% 19% 34% 24%
RETAIL LENDING TO REMAIN THE MAIN DRIVER OF VOLUMES GROWTH, WITH GOOD MACRO PROSPECTS SUPPORTING A FAVOURABLE CORPORATE LENDING PERFORMANCE Expected evolution of retail loans1 (CAGR ’05-’08, local currency)
Expected evolution of corporate loans (CAGR ’05-’08, local currency)
CEE-12
CEE-12
Poland
Poland
Turkey
Turkey
Croatia
Croatia
Russia
Russia
Bulgaria
Bulgaria
Czech R.
Czech R.
Hungary
Hungary
Romania
Romania
Slovakia
Slovakia
Bosnia
Bosnia
Slovenia
Slovenia
Serbia
Serbia
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0%
60% 7
Sources: Unicredit-NE Research Network based on local Central Banks’ data (1) Including households and (when available) NPISHs
10%
20%
30%
40%
RELATIVELY STABLE BANKING PENETRATION ON THE LIABILITIES SIDE, …
Evolution of banking deposits in CEE-12(1) (% of GDP)
Total deposits’ volumes growth(2) (2000 =100, in € terms) CAGR ’00-’08
1,000
60%
Central Europe (Poland,Czech R.,Hungary,Slovakia)
Russia 32% p.a.
SEE (Croatia,Slovenia,Serbia,Bosnia,Romania,Bulgaria) Russia
39%
40%
35% 32%
34%
34%
39%
39%
41%
Turkey
36% 500 SEE 17% p.a.
20%
Turkey 11% p.a.
CE 9% p.a.
0
0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006f 2007f 2008f
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006f 2007f 2008f 8 Sources: Unicredit-NE Research Network based on local Central Banks’ data (1) Including Poland, Czech R., Hungary, Slovakia, Slovenia, Romania, Bulgaria, Croatia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Serbia, Russia and Turkey; excluding Ukraine and the baltics; (2) Total deposits include general govt, non-financial corporations, households and when available NPISHs and Non-MFIs
… WITH DIFFERENT PATTERNS AMONG COUNTRIES
Evolution of banking deposits by country (% of
% country over Total deposits CEE deposits
GDP)1
2008 Poland Turkey Croatia Russia Bulgaria Czech Republic Hungary Romania Slovakia Bosnia Slovenia Serbia CEE-12
100 2005
2008
80
61
60
55
63 60
55
50
40
39
58 54
55 53
49
57 58
47
43 43
41 39
38 33 25
35
32 28
25
20
0 Poland
Turkey
Croatia
Russia
Bulgaria Czech R. Hungary Romania Slovakia
Bosnia
Slovenia
Serbia
CEE-12
9 Sources: Unicredit-NE Research Network based on local Central Banks’ data (1) Total deposits include general govt, non-financial corporations, households and where available NPISHs and Non-MFIs
13% 20% 2% 41% 2% 8% 5% 4% 3% 1% 2% 1% -
CAGR '05-'08 (loc. currency) 7% 19% 7% 32% 16% 4% 7% 16% 7% 14% 7% 29% 17%
GOOD PROFITABILITY OF THE CORPORATE SECTOR EXPECTED TO SUSTAIN GROWTH IN DEPOSITS’ VOLUMES AT THE REGIONAL LEVEL WITH RETAIL PLAYING A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN RUSSIA, ROMANIA, BULGARIA, SERBIA, BOSNIA AND TURKEY Expected evolution of retail deposits1 (CAGR ’05-’08, local currency)
Expected evolution of corporate deposits (CAGR ’05-’08, local currency)
CEE-12
CEE-12
Poland
Poland
Turkey
Turkey
Croatia
Croatia
Russia
Russia
Bulgaria
Bulgaria
Czech R.
Czech R.
Hungary
Hungary
Romania
Romania
Slovakia
Slovakia
Bosnia
Bosnia
Slovenia
Slovenia
Serbia
Serbia
0%
10%
20%
30%
0%
40% 10
Sources: Unicredit-NE Research Network based on local Central Banks’ data (1) Including households and (when available) NPISHs
10%
20%
30%
40%
WE EXPECT THE REGION TO CONTINUE TO DELIVER GOOD RESULTS IN TERMS OF BANKING PROFITABILITY
CAGR ’05-’08 (local currency)
Net Interest Income
Net noninterest income
Net revenues
Net profit(1)
Poland
10%
9%
9%
10%
Turkey
5%
10%
7%
14%
€ bn
Croatia
4%
9%
6%
10%
35.0
Russia
24%
24%
24%
21%
Bulgaria
12%
14%
12%
13%
Czech R.
5%
9%
7%
7%
Hungary
7%
12%
9%
8%
Romania
10%
19%
15%
11%
Slovakia
1%
16%
7%
9%
CEE-9
13%
14%
13%
15%
CAGR 2005-08: +15.2%
NET PROFITS Before tax / extr items
€32.0bn €28.4bn
30.0 €25.4bn
25.0 20.0
€21.0bn €16.5bn
% country over CEE-9 NetProfit(1) (2005)
Romania Slovakia 3% Hungary 3% Poland 7% 13% Czech R. 7% Turkey Bulgaria 26% 2%
15.0
Croatia 3%
0.0
Russia 35%
11 Sources: Central Banks and Unicredit-NE Research Network (1)Net Profit for the Banking Sector is before tax and extraordinary items.
10.0 5.0
2004
2005
2006f
2007f
2008f
AGENDA
Evolution of banking systems in CEE Presence and ranking of international banking groups in the region Relevance and positioning of international players at single country level
12
INTERNATIONAL PLAYERS PREVAIL ALL OVER THE REGION WITH STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION STILL ONGOING IN RUSSIA, TURKEY AND SLOVENIA
CEE Total assets2 by ownership, 2005*
Market share of foreign-owned banks1 (% of total banking system assets, 2005)
Foreignowned 46%
91% 76%
70%
85% 84% 88%
99%
98% 89%
86% 66%
58%
(3)
36%
*Excl. Russia and Turkey foreign ownership ∼ 78%
13 Sources: Unicredit-NE Research Network based on local Central Banks’ data (1) For Czech R. and Slovenia figures refer to end of 2004; for Lithuania, figures refer to share capital of Lithuanian Banks owned by foreign investors; the ratio is computed considering 100% of assets when shareholding > 50% (2) Excluding Ukraine; (3) Including total assets controlled by non-residents with less than 50% of management rights
Lithuania
Latvia
Estonia
Serbia
Slovenia
Bosnia
Slovakia
Romania
Hungary
Czech R.
19% Bulgaria
Russia
9% Croatia
Poland
Privately &State owned 54%
Turkey
19%
A SMALL NUMBERS OF INTERNATIONAL PLAYERS DOMINATING THE MARKET WITH ROUGHTLY 26% MARKET SHARE IN TERMS OF ASSETS…
Proforma 2005, as of perimeter May 2006i Consol. Assets (€ bln)i
UniCredit
86.2(1)
39.4 (3)
Erste
OTP
42.3(5)
40.7
RZB
Intesa
4,379(1)
1,744 (3)
42.7
KBC
SocGen
48.7(4)
26.9
20.1
(8)
30.1(7)
22.1(9)
19.0 19.1(11)
Net Profit before min.int. (€ mln)ii
Total Revenues (€ mln)
1,325(1)
530 (3)
2,406(4)
1,435
1,083
(8)
2,026(5)
490
301
1,212(9)(10)
1,545 1,561(11)
(8)
608
14
5
15
9
531(7)
326(9)
609(11)
(2)
6(4)
5
481(5)
460
1,551(7)
Source: Unicredit-NE Research Network; numbers converted using avg and eop ex. rates from UIC for P&L and BL figures, respectively (i) 100% of total assets, revenues and profit after tax (before min.interests) for controlled Companies (stake > 50%) and share owned for non controlled companies; proforma results include also banks acquired during 2005 and 2006; (ii) After tax, before minority interest (iii) Including direct and indirect presence in the 21 CEE countries, excluding representative offices
711(4)
17
556
1,928
1,898
Countries of presenceiii
7
5
(6)
10(7)
9(9)
6(11)
(1) Excluding Splitska Banka, Vienna Profit Center and other UCI’s minorities (Unicredit Securities&Unicredit leasing BG) while including proforma Nova Banjalucka Banka (full year), Hypo Stavebni Sporitelna and 50% of KFS-Yapi combined entity (full 2005 normalised for Yapi); BankTiriac, Hebros and Eksimbanka consolidated proforma for the full year; (2) Including Azerbaijan; (3) Including proforma Erste Serbia; (4) Including proforma BCR; (5) Including proforma Impexbank; Bank Aval fully consolidated since 1st Oct 2005; (6) Excluding Kosovo; (7) Including proforma Splitska Banka; (8) Including proforma KMB and Intesa Beograd; (9) Including proforma Ukrsotsbank and UPI Banka (as of Sep ’05); (10) Revenues for KMB and UPI Banka n.a.; (11) Including proforma Niska Banka and Zepter Banka; profits are before tax; P&L of OTP Hrvatska doesn’t include Q1 2005
… AND STRONG FINANCIAL PENETRATION AND CEE FRANCHISE WITH AROUND 12,000 BRANCHES AND 230,000 EMPLOYEES
Proforma 2005, as of perimeter May 2006i
Branches UniCredit Erste KBC
2,956(1)
Intesa OTP
Loans+Deposits (€ bln)ii
65.0(1)
99.7(1)
32.2(2)
1,668(2)
1,237
RZB SocGen
Employees (ths)
28.6
1,027(4)
16.7(4)
24.9(5)
1,286(5)
1,000(6)
46.1
48.7(3)
2,633(3)
14.7(6)(7)
55.3(2)
51.1(3)
34.5(4)
27.1(5)
22.1(6)
15 Source: Unicredit-NE Research Network (i) 100% of branches (excluding representative offices) and employees; for Unicredit, figures on employees are FTE; (ii) Only loans/deposits to/from customers (excluding amounts to/from banks); figures for loans are net values
(1) Excluding Splitska Banka while including Nova Banjalucka Banka, Eksimbanka (employees as of Sep ’05) and 100% of KFS-Yapi branches and employees; including Splitska, branches and employees would be 3,068 and 66.3 ths, respectively; figures as of dec 2005 recasted end of March; figures for loans and deposits do not include Vienna Profit Center; (2) Including proforma BCR and Erste Bank Serbia; (3) Including proforma Impexbank; (4) Including proforma Splitska banka; employees of SG Yugoslav bank n.a. (5) Including proforma KMB, Intesa Beograd, Ukrsotsbank and UPI banka; (6) Including proforma Niska banka, Zepter banka and OTP Hrvatska; (7) Employees of Zepter banka n.a.
INTERNATIONAL PLAYERS IN THE FIELD WITH DIFFERENT BACKGROUND AND MARKET APPROACH Perimeter as of May 2006
UNICREDIT
PL
TK
HR
CZ
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
ERSTE KBC RZB
9
SOCGEN
9
9
9
I
INTESA
R
R
9
BG
HU
9
9
9 9
OTP CITIGROUP
RU
RO
SK BiH
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
I 9
9
AL AJ(2) KZ(3) MK BY(4) BLT(5)
R
9
M
9 9
FRY(1) UA
SI
9
9
I
9
M
9
R
9 9
9
R
9
R(6)
R
9
9
9
Among the top 5 banks in the country in terms of total assets
R
Representative Office
16 I
Indirect presence
Note: (1) Serbia & Montenegro (2) Azerbaijan (3) Kazakhstan (4) Belarus; (5) Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania; (6) Lithuania Source: Banks’ Annual Report and Investor Relations
M
Minority stake
Presence
STRATEGIC POSITIONING OF INTERNATIONAL GROUPS IN THE CEE REGION – FOCUSED VS WIDESPREAD STRATEGY
Strategic positioning: country of operation and size in each market (size = total assets controlled in the region)
Number of Top 5
12 10 8 6 4 2 0 0
5
10
15
Number of countries of active presence(i)
17 Source: Unicredit-NE Research Network (i) Including both direct and indirect presence
20
AGENDA
Evolution of banking systems in CEE Presence and ranking of international banking groups in the region Relevance and positioning of international players at single country level
18
TOP BANKS IN BOSNIA & HERZEGOVINA
Total Assets1, market share and ownership Market share2
Total Assets LAS (€bn) UniCredit Zagrabačka Banka+HVB Central Profit Banka (proforma)
(3)
∼25%
(UniCredit Group)
∼21%
(Raiffeisen International)
0,8
∼13%
(UniCredit Group)
(3)
1,5
1,3
Raiffeisen Bank BiH
UniCredit Zagrebačka Banka
Majority shareholder
HVB Central Profit Banka
0,7
∼12%
(UniCredit Group)
Hypo Alpe-Adria Mostar
0,7
∼11%
(Hypo Alpe-Adria-Group)
∼8%
(Hypo Alpe-Adria-Group)
∼4%
(Intesa Group)
0,5
Hypo Alpe-Adria Banja Luka
UPI banka
0,2 19
Source: Unicredit-NE Research Network based on local banks’ financial statements and press releases (1) Total assets according to local accounting standards based on unconsolidated results; for Nova Banjalucka Banka (NBB) figures are according to IFRS and expressed as gross values thus the overall market share may be overestimated due to the different standard (2) Based on net unconsolidated figures for total banking system’s assets according to local accounting standards; (3) Including proforma Nova Banjalucka Banka
TOP BANKS IN CROATIA
Total Assets1, market share and ownership Market share2
Total Assets LAS (€bn) Zagrebačka Banka
8,6 6,4
Privredna Banka Zagreb Erste & Steiermarkische Bank
4,1
Raiffeisenbank Austria
3,9
Splitska banka
3,2
Hypo Alpe-Adria-Bank OTP Hrvatska Slavonska banka
2,6 1,2 1,0 20
Source: Unicredit-NE Research Network based on Banka Magazine figures (1) Total assets according to local accounting standards based on unconsolidated results; (2) Based on net unconsolidated figures for total banking system’s assets according to local accounting standards
Majority shareholder
24%
(UniCredit Group)
18%
(Intesa Group)
12%
(Erste Group)
11%
(Raiffeisen International)
9%
(UniCredit Group until June ’06 Société Générale Group as of July)
7%
(Hypo Alpe-Adria-Group)
3%
(OTP Group)
3%
(Hypo Alpe-Adria-Group)
TOP BANKS IN BULGARIA
Total Assets1, market share and ownership Market share2
Total Assets IAS (€bn) Bulbank+HVB Bank Biochim+Hebros Bank (proforma)
3,5 2,3
DSK bank 1,8
Bulbank
Majority shareholder
∼21%
(UniCredit Group)
∼14%
(OTP Group)
∼11%
(UniCredit Group)
HVB Bank Biochim & Hebros Bank
1,7
∼10%
(UniCredit Group)
UBB
1,6
∼10%
(NBG)
∼9%
(Raiffeisen International)
∼8%
(Majority private capital)
∼5%
(EFG Eurobank)
1,4
Raiffeisen Bulgaria
1,3
First Investment Bank Bulgarian Post Bank
0,9 21
Source: Unicredit-NE Research Network based on local banks’ financial statements and BNB (1) Total assets according to international accounting standards based on consolidated results; for DSK bank, figures are according to hungarian IAS (2) Based on net unconsolidated figures for total banking system’s assets according to international accounting standards;
TOP BANKS IN ESTONIA
Total Assets1, market share and ownership Market share2
Total Assets IAS (€bn)
6,94
Hansapank
2,54
Eesti Ühispank
Nordea Bank
1,06
0,90
Sampo Pank
Eesti Krediidipank Tallinna Äripanga
0,20
0,04
59%
Majority shareholder
(Swedbank)
21%
(SEB)
~9%
(Nordea Group)
8%
(Sampo Group)
2%
(Latvian Business Bank)
0.3%
22 Source: Unicredit-NE Research Network based on local banks’ financial statements and Central Bank (1) Total assets according to international accounting standards based on unconsolidated results; for Nordea Bank figures are consolidated and thus overall market share may be overestimated due to different standard (2) Based on net unconsolidated figures for total banking system according to international accounting standards
(Majority private local capital)
TOP BANKS IN THE CZECH REPUBLIC
Total Assets1, market share and ownership Market share2
Total Assets IAS (€bn)
CSOB
25,4
Česká Spořitelna
22,6
Komercni Banka
17,8
HVB Bank Czech Rep.Živnostenská Banka (proforma)
7,4
HVB Bank Czech Rep.
Commerzbank
Raiffeisenbank
5,7
3,6
2,7
23 Source: Unicredit-NE Research Network based on local banks’ financial statements and CNB (1) Total assets according to international accounting standards based on consolidated results (except for Commerzbank whose figures are unconsolidated according to local accounting standards; (2) Based on net unconsolidated figures for total banking system’s assets according to local accounting standards
Majority shareholder
∼25%
(KBC Group)
∼22%
(Erste Group)
∼17%
(Société Générale Group)
∼7%
(UniCredit Group)
∼6%
(UniCredit Group)
∼4%
(Commerzbank)
∼3%
(Raiffeisen International)
TOP BANKS IN HUNGARY
Total Assets1, market share and ownership Market share2
Total Assets LAS (€bn)
14,2
OTP
7,5
K&H
MKB
6,5
Majority shareholder
19%
(Majority foreign capital)
10%
(KBC Group)
9%
(Bayerische Landesbank)
CIB
5,8
8%
(Intesa Group)
Erste
5,7
8%
(Erste Group)
7%
(Raiffeisen International)
5%
(UniCredit Group)
Raiffeisen Hungary HVB Bank Hungary
5,0
4,0
24 Source: Unicredit-NE Research Network based on local banks’ financial statements and MNB (1) Total assets according to local accounting standards based on unconsolidated results; (2) Based on net unconsolidated figures for total banking system’s assets according to local accounting standards
TOP BANKS IN LATVIA
Total Assets1, market share and ownership Market share2
Total Assets IAS (€bn)
3.2
Hansabanka
2.8
SEB Unibanka
2.6
Parex Bank
NORD/LB Latvija
Rietumu banka
Nordea Bank
1.1
1.0
0.8
Majority shareholder
∼20%
(Swedbank)
∼17%
(SEB)
∼17%
(Majority private local capital)
∼7%
(DnB Nord Bank ASA)
∼6%
(Majority private capital)
∼5%
(Nordea Group)
25 Source: Unicredit-NE Research Network based on local banks’ financial statements and Central Bank (1) Total assets according to international accounting standards based on consolidated results; (2) Based on gross unconsolidated figures for total banking system’s assets according to local accounting standards
TOP BANKS IN LITHUANIA
Total Assets1, market share and ownership Market share2
Total Assets IAS (€bn)
4.4
Vilniaus Bankas
AB Bankas Hansabankas
3.5
NordLB (DnB Nord Bank)
1.5
1.3
Bankas Snoras
Sampo bankas
Nordea Bank
0.9
0.8
26 Source: Unicredit-NE Research Network based on local banks’ financial statements and Central Bank (1) Total assets according to international accounting standards based on consolidated results; (2) Based on net unconsolidated figures for total banking system’s assets according to local accounting standards
Majority shareholder
∼34%
(SEB)
∼27%
(Swedbank)
∼12%
(DnB Nord Bank ASA)
∼10%
(Conversgroup - LUX)
∼7%
(Sampo Bank Plc.)
∼6%
(Nordea)
TOP BANKS IN POLAND
Total Assets1, market share and ownership Market share2
Total Assets IAS (€bn) Bank Pekao-Bank BPH (proforma)
31,0 23,8
PKO BP 16,1
Bank Pekao
15,0
Bank BPH 10,9
ING Bank Slaski SA
Majority shareholder
∼20%
(UniCredit Group)
∼16%
(State)
∼11%
(UniCredit Group)
∼10%
(UniCredit Group)
∼7%
(ING Group)
BRE Bank
8,6
∼6%
(Commerzbank)
Citibank Handlowy
8,5
∼6%
(CitiGroup)
∼5%
(AIB Ltd)
Bank Zachodni WBK
7,7 27 Source: Unicredit-NE Research Network (1) Total assets according to international accounting standards based on consolidated results; (2) Based on net unconsolidated figures for total banking system’s assets according to local accounting standards
TOP BANKS IN RUSSIA
Total Assets1, market share and ownership Market share2
Total Assets LAS (€bn)
73.7
Sberbank
18.4
Vneshtorgbank
12.7
Gazprombank
Majority shareholder
∼26%
(State)
∼6%
(State)
∼4%
(Gazprom – State3)
Alfa-bank
6.8
∼2%
(Majority private local capital)
Uralsib bank
6.7
∼2%
(Majority private local capital)
Bank of Mocow
6.5
∼2%
(Moscow City Government)
Rosbank
5.9
∼2%
(Private local capital)
28 Source: Unicredit-NE Research Network based on Interfax Rating Agency (1) Total assets according to local accounting standards based on unconsolidated results; (2) Based on gross figures for total banking system’s assets; (3) In the end of 2005 Dresdner bank acquired ~33% stake
TOP BANKS IN SLOVAKIA
Total Assets1, market share and ownership Market share2
Total Assets IAS (€bn) Slovenská Sporitelna
6,8 6,0
VUB
Majority shareholder
∼18%
(Erste Group)
∼16%
(Intesa Group)
Tatra Banka
4,9
∼13%
(Raiffeisen International)
CSOB
4,8
∼13%
(KBC Group)
∼9%
(UniCredit Group)
∼7%
(ING Group)
∼5%
(UniCredit Group)
HVB Bank Slovakia+UniBanka (proforma)
3,4 2,8
ING Bank 2,0
HVB Bank Slovakia UniBanka
1,4
∼4% 29
Source: Unicredit-NE Research Network based on local banks’ financial statements and NBS (1) Total assets according to international accounting standards based on consolidated results except for ING (unconsolidated and LAC) and CSOB (unconsolidated); (2) Based on total banking system’s assets according to harmonised statistics (IAS)
(UniCredit Group)
TOP BANKS IN ROMANIA
Total Assets1, market share and ownership Market share2
Total Assets LAS (€bn) 9,0
Banca Comerciala Romana Banca Romana Pentru Dezvoltare
5,2
Majority shareholder
26%
(Erste Group)
15%
(Société Générale Group)
UniCredit Romania+HVB Bank Romania+Banca Tiriac (proforma)
3,1
9%
(UniCredit Group)
Raiffeisen Bank (Romania)
3,0
9%
(Raiffeisen International)
7%
(UniCredit Group)
5%
(ING Group)
HVB Bank Romania+ Banca Tiriac (proforma) ING Barings Romania
2,6 1,8
Banc Post
1,6
4%
(EFG Eurobank)
Casa de Economii si Consemnaiuni
1,5
4%
(State)
30 Source: Unicredit-NE Research Network based on local banks’ financial statements and BNR (1) Total assets according to local accounting standards based on unconsolidated results; (2) Based on unconsolidated net figures for total banking system’s assets according to local accounting standards
TOP BANKS IN SLOVENIA
Total Assets1, market share and ownership Market share2
Total Assets LAS (€bn)
Nova Ljubljanska banka
9,2
Nova kreditna banka Maribor
3,0
2,5
Abanka Vipa
SKB banka
2,0
31%
Majority shareholder
(State & KBC)
10%
(State)
9%
(Majority private local capital)
7%
(Société Générale Group)
Bank Austria Creditanstalt
1,9
6%
(UniCredit Group)
Banka Koper
1,8
6%
(SanPaolo IMI Group)
Banca Celje
1,7
6%
(Nova Ljubljanska banka)
31 Source: Unicredit-NE Research Network based on local banks’ financial statements and Central Bank (1) Total assets according to local accounting standards based on unconsolidated results; (2) Based on net unconsolidated figures for the total banking system’s assets according to local accounting standards
TOP BANKS IN SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO
Total Assets1, market share and ownership Market share2
Total Assets IAS (€bn) Raiffeisenbank Beograd
1,4
Banca Intesa Beograd
1,0
Komercijalna banka Beograd
0,9
Hypo AlpeAdria-Bank Beograd HVB Bank
Vojvodanska banka Novi Sad
0,8
0,5
0,5
32 Source: Unicredit-NE Research Network based on local banks’ financial statements and NBS (1) Total assets according to international accounting standards based on consolidated results; (2) Based on net unconsolidated assets for the overall banking system according to local accounting standards
Majority shareholder
∼16%
(Raiffeisen International)
∼11%
(Intesa Group)
∼10%
(State)
∼9%
(Hypo Alpe-Adria-Group)
∼6%
(UniCredit Group/BA-CA)
∼5%
(State)
TOP BANKS IN TURKEY
Total Assets1, market share and ownership Market share2
Total Assets LAS (€bn)
Ziraat
40,9 40,0
Is Ak
32,9
Koç+YKB (proforma)
25,2
Garanti
22,9 20,3
Vakif
17,0
Halk YKB Koç
15,0 9,3
Majority shareholder
16%
(State)
16%
(IsBank Pension fund)
13%
(Sabanci Group)
10%
(UniCredit & Koc Group)
9%
(Doğuş Group & GE)
8%
(State)
7%
(State)
6%
(UniCredit & Koc Group)
4%
(UniCredit & Koc Group)
33 Source: Unicredit-NE Research Network based on Bankers’ Association figures and BRSA (1) Total assets according to local accounting standards based on unconsolidated results; for the Koc-YKB combined entity figures refer to proforma results including only Q4 of YKB P&L data; (2) Based on net unconsolidated figures for total banking system’s assets according to local accounting standards
METHODOLOGY
The comparison covers the following 16 countries: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia and Montenegro, Slovakia, Slovenia, Ukraine and Turkey;
In the ranking of international players, the CEE region includes the above mentioned 16 countries plus Albania, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Macedonia;
Banking results’ in the first part of the comparison (up to slide 17) are according to local IAS (with the exception of SKB and SG Vostok – owned by SocGen – UPI Banka – owned by Intesa – Niska Banka and Zepter Banka – owned by OTP – in local accounting standards). For Erste Bank Croatia and RZB figures are according to austrian IAS while for OTP according to hungarian IAS and may thus slightly differ from the local IAS;
Data are proforma 12M including deals closed as of May 2006. Only in a few cases proforma 12M results are not available (for details see notes on the slides);
Data refer to consolidated results of the bank (with the exception of OTP Hungary);
Figures may differ from those published in Groups’ results due to differences in the accounting standards (local vs home country ones), number of quarters consolidated (as we include where available full year results) and consolidation effects;
Data correspond to the sum of stand-alone results of CEE subsidiaries considering 100% of total assets, revenues and net profits (after tax and before minority interests) if shareholding > 50%. If < 50%, figures are shown proquota; for employees and branches, we consider 100%; only for RZB figures refer to overall results of Raiffeisen international as no data were available for most of its subsidiaries. This implies some underestimation of 2005 performance given that some banks are not fully owned (i.e. Tatra Banka, Priorbank, Raiffeisen Croatia, Raiffeisen Czech R., Raiffeisen Hungary, Raiffeisen Serbia, Raiffeisen Bosnia and Raiffeisen Krekova Banka);
The comparison among top banks at single country level (from slide 18) is based on a variety of different data which not always correspond to international accounting standards. Moreover, results will be/were published in individual countries only after this report was prepared. Market shares have been calculated based on data reported to the national banks on unconsolidated basis and according to LAS. Therefore in some countries (Bulgaria, Czech R., Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Serbia and Slovakia) the numerator and the denominator do not have the same delineation and may thus overestimate the overall size of each bank in the market. The comparison nonetheless gives a picture of the relative sizes and trends in the single banking markets of the region. Closing date Mid June 2006 34
