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ALBERTA ENERGY O I L S AN D S 2 0 0 4 - 2 0 1 4

P R O D U C T I O N

P R O F I L E :

Energy Technical Services Resource Development Policy Division January 31, 2016

2004 - 2014 Christopher Holly Martin Mader Shoshi Soni Jesse Toor

ISBN: 978-1-4601-2723-0 (PDF)

This paper was prepared by the Energy Technical Services Branch, Alberta Energy, to illustrate technology developments in the Alberta oil and gas industry. The Government of Alberta shall have no liability whatsoever to third parties for any defect, deficiency, error or omission in the contents, analyses and evaluations presented in this paper. Any questions about this paper should be directed to Branch Head Energy Technical Services Alberta Energy 9945 – 108 Street Edmonton, Alberta Canada T5K 2G6

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Table of Contents Introduction ............................................................................................................................................ 4 Methodology .......................................................................................................................................... 5 Oil Sands Areas ..................................................................................................................................... 6 Production Technologies ....................................................................................................................... 7 Primary/Enhanced Oil Recovery ............................................................................................................................7 Cyclic Steam Stimulation........................................................................................................................................7 Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage ...........................................................................................................................7 Surface Mining ........................................................................................................................................................7 Diagram of different production technologies:......................................................................................................8 Data & Analysis...................................................................................................................................... 9 Annual Oil Sands Production .................................................................................................................................9 Annual Oil Sands Production by Technology .................................................................................................... 10 Annual Oil Sands Production by Area ................................................................................................................ 12 Annual Oil Sands Areas Production by Technology ......................................................................................... 14 Annual Oil Sands Production - SAGD ............................................................................................................... 17 Annual Oil Sands Production - CSS ................................................................................................................... 19 Appendix I ............................................................................................................................................ 21 2004 – 2014 Oil Sands Project Production Volumes ......................................................................................... 21 Appendix II ........................................................................................................................................... 22 Calculations........................................................................................................................................................... 22

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Introduction Canada is endowed with significant crude oil resources, in the order of two trillion barrels of oil in place. Although these oil deposits are some of the most challenging in the world to develop, innovative research and production technologies have enabled them to move from resources to proven reserves. Canada is a net exporter of oil, and is consistently the top supplier of oil imports to the United States. As of 2014, Canada is responsible for 19 percent of oil exports to the United States1, of which 77 percent is from Alberta’s Oil Sands2. The purpose of this report is to provide a detailed overview of oil production volumes from the oil sands region based on production information submitted to the Ministry of Energy3. Specifically, this report will provide an analysis of production volumes based on (1) region, and (2) production technology as defined by the Alberta Energy. The report also shows steam-to-oil ratios trends for thermal in-situ projects from 2004 - 2015.

1

http://www.neb.gc.ca/clf-nsi/rnrgynfmtn/sttstc/crdlndptrlmprdct/crdlndptrlmprdct-eng.html, Retrieved October 9, 2015 http://www.neb.gc.ca/nrg/sttstc/crdlndptrlmprdct/index-eng.html, Retrieved September 22, 2014 3 The ministry consists of the Department of Energy, the Alberta Energy Regulator (AER), the Alberta Utilities Commission (AUC), the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission (APMC) and the Post-Closure Stewardship Fund. The AER regulates the safe, efficient, orderly and environmentally responsible development of Alberta’s energy resources. This includes allocating and conserving water resources, protecting the environment and managing public lands, which benefit Alberta’s economy and environment. The AUC regulates the utilities sector, natural gas and electricity markets to protect the social, economic and environmental interests of Alberta where competitive market forces do not. The APMC is a provincial agency that markets the Crown’s crude oil royalty barrels. The APMC supports projects that economically benefit the province through improving market access or maximizing the value of Alberta’s non-renewable resources. The Post-Closure Stewardship Fund, financed by carbon-capture and storage operators in Alberta, is a liability fund that has been established to ensure that carboncapture and storage sites are properly maintained in the long-term after carbon-capture operations cease. Alberta Energy Business Plan 2015-18, October 15, 2015 2

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Methodology The main objectives of the Oil Sands Production Profile (OSPP) are to identify the growth trend in different production technologies over the past 10 years, how these technologies have been applied to different Oil Sands Areas and energy efficiency of thermal projects. The total production volumes given in this profile are reflective of the Alberta Energy Regulator (AER) data, which includes experimental commercial and freehold Oil Sands projects. Growth trends were measured and assessed for accuracy (R2 ≥ 0.99 for total Oil Sands production)4. Production data is categorized by operators, area (Athabasca North, Wabiskaw, Conklin, Peace River and Cold Lake), and production technology (Primary/Enhanced Oil Recovery, Cyclic Steam Simulation, Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage, and Surface Mining).

4

See Appendix II – Growth trends

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Oil Sands Areas In Alberta, there are three main Oil Sands Areas. These areas are as follows: 1. Athabasca 2. Cold Lake 3. Peace River To identify with greater clarity where growth is occurring, the Athabasca Oil Sands Area (AOSA) is divided into three sub-areas or segments: 1. Athabasca (North) – The AOSA, North of Township 86 (known hereafter as “Athabasca North Area”) 2. Athabasca (Wabiskaw) – The AOSA, South of Township 86, from Range 16 West (known hereafter as “Wabiskaw Area”). 3. Athabasca (Conklin) – The AOSA, from Township 86 South, East of Range 16 (known hereafter as “Conklin Area”). The map in Figure 1-i shows the locations of these areas. The reservoir characteristics vary significantly among these areas, as shown in Figure 1-ii. Figure 1 i.

5

Alberta Areas5

Oil Sands

Map modified from http://www.energy.alberta.ca/LandAccess/pdfs/OSAagreeStats.pdf

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Production Technologies There are four generalized extraction methods outlined as the main production technologies currently used in the Oil Sands Areas: Primary/Enhanced Recovery, Cyclic Steam Stimulation, Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage, and Surface Mining. The resource quality determines the recovery technology to be used as it is critical to match the recovery process to the unique characteristics of a reservoir such as location, geology, etc. Primary/Enhanced Oil Recovery Primary recovery from a reservoir is typically the first method of producing oil from a given reservoir. It uses energy which is already in the reservoir, such as gravity, and water or gas pressure (also known as waterdrive or gasdrive), to displace oil and drive it to surface facilities. Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) is typically any form of technology for producing oil after primary production is no longer economically viable. Some examples of EOR include: water-flooding, gas injection, and polymer/chemical flooding. In some cases, these EOR production technologies are applied at the start of production, rather than being used as the secondary or tertiary recovery mechanism, in order to increase the ultimate recovery of oil from the reservoir. Cyclic Steam Stimulation Cyclic Steam Stimulation (CSS), or “huff and puff” as it is sometimes called, is a thermal production technology in which one well is used to both inject steam and produce oil. Steam is injected at pressures high enough that the hydraulic fractures are induced in the reservoir, allowing steam to access and heat new areas of the reservoir. After weeks or even months, the injection cycle is completed; a few days are allowed for the steam to condense and then the production of oil and water begins. Production initially occurs due to increased reservoir pressures, but later, cycles require artificial lift technologies to produce the remaining oil during the production cycle. This cycle is then repeated after the production rates become too small (as determined by the producer). CSS is a viable option for deeper reservoirs that have a thick, capping shale to manage the high steam injection pressure. The high injection pressure and multiple recovery mechanisms enable CSS to work effectively with a broader range of reservoirs, especially with heterogeneous characteristics. Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD) is a thermal production technology which utilizes two parallel horizontal wells, known as a well pair, one to inject steam, and the other to produce water and oil. Initially, steam is circulated in both wells to establish communication between the wells. The top horizontal well then continuously injects steam to heat the reservoir, creating a steam chamber. The oil from the chamber drains to the production well below to allow for production initially through pressure drive, and then by artificial lift or gas lift. The steam injection and oil production happen continuously and simultaneously once production starts. This technology has a high ultimate recovery of oil from the reservoir relative to other in situ production technologies. Surface Mining Truck and shovel technology is used to move sand saturated with bitumen from the mining area to an extraction facility. Surface mining is used to recover oil sands deposits less than 75 meters below the surface, while in-situ technologies are used to recover deeper deposits. The bitumen is then

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treated to remove the sand, mineral fines and other impurities in processes which vary among industry competitors. Once the extraction process is completed, it is ready for refining or upgrading, depending on the company’s objective and the treatment process used. Diagram of different production technologies:

Source: Government of Alberta

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Data & Analysis Annual Oil Sands Production Crude Oil production from Oil Sands was calculated on an annual basis for 2004-2014 production years6 and is presented in Figure 2. Figure 2 i) Annual Crude Oil Production from Oil Sands

Annual Crude Oil Production from Oil Sands 2004 - 2014 2,500,000

Production (bpd)

2,000,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Year

ii) Annual Crude Oil Production from Oil Sands Year bpd

2004 1,088,799

2005 1,063,639

Annual Crude Oil Production from Oil Sands 2004 - 2014 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1,254,226 1,320,271 1,304,546 1,488,843 1,612,127 1,748,296

2012 1,956,031

2013 2,142,264

2014 2,323,535

Figure 2 shows growth in total crude production for all of the oil sands areas. The average annual growth was determined to be 121,526 bpd with a 7.8 percent Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)7.

6 7

See Methodology and Appendix I See Appendix II for sample calculation

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Annual Oil Sands Production by Technology To emphasize the growth of separate technologies over the past decade, annual production was further analyzed based on the four generalized commercial production technologies: 1) Primary/EOR, 2) CSS, 3) SAGD, and 4) Surface Mining8. Figure 3-i and 3-ii shows production by the various technologies. Figure 3 i)

Annual Crude Oil Production from Oil Sands by Technology

1,200,000

CSS Surface Mining

1,000,000

Production (bpd)

Primary/EOR SAGD

800,000

600,000

400,000

200,000

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Year

ii)

Annual Crude Oil Production (bpd) from Oil Sands by Technology Technology CSS Surface Mining Primary/EOR SAGD Total

8

2004 175,535 704,777 115,537 72,627 1,068,476

2005 198,860 612,751 117,970 86,440 1,016,021

2006 224,277 760,839 128,878 108,398 1,222,393

2007 225,218 770,835 153,296 128,212 1,277,561

2008 219,029 721,491 169,131 180,248 1,289,900

2009 207,947 825,842 174,422 244,507 1,452,718

2010 237,892 856,876 173,145 322,644 1,590,557

2011 264,064 890,940 169,660 378,853 1,703,517

2012 264,705 929,662 178,442 518,542 1,891,351

2013 256,531 978,208 210,810 626,403 2,071,952

2014 251,666 1,038,479 226,964 686,324 2,203,433

As described in Methodology and Appendix I

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iii)

Crude Oil Growth Rates from Oil Sands by Technology Technology

Average Growth (bbl/year)

Compounded Annual Growth (CAGR)

CSS

7,613

3.7%

Surface Mining

33,370

4.0%

Primary/EOR

11,143

7.0%

SAGD

61,370

25.2%

Total

113,496

7.5%

Separating production allowed for calculation of the individual CAGR of the technologies, and showed the corresponding trends. Growth rates can be seen in Figure 3-iii. CAGR for CSS (3.7%), Mining (4%) and Primary (7%) exhibited growth trends9, similar to total annual production (7.5%) as shown in Figure 2-i and 2-ii, while SAGD production exhibited more growth with a significantly greater CAGR (25.2%) than all other production technologies.

9

Appendix II-i

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Annual Oil Sands Production by Area Production trends were also examined within the distinct Oil Sands Areas10. Annual crude production was determined for: 1) Athabasca North, 2) Cold Lake, 3) Conklin, 4) Peace River, and 5) Wabiskaw areas11. Figure 4-i and 4-ii shows the annual production volumes for the various regions. Figure 4 i)

Annual Crude Oil Production from Oil Sands by Area

1,300,000 1,200,000

Production (bpd)

1,100,000 1,000,000

Athabasca North

900,000

Cold Lake

800,000

Conklin

700,000

Peace River

600,000

Wabiskaw

500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Year ii)

Annual Crude Oil Production (bpd) from Oil Sands by Area Annual Crude Oil Production from Oil Sands by Area Area 2004 2005 2006 2007 Athabasca 733,869 654,428 816,442 829,825 North Cold Lake 237,534 246,594 276,332 285,400 Conklin 42,741 44,129 52,304 62,897 Peace River 15,167 21,864 20,077 36,087 Wabiskaw 39,165 49,006 57,238 63,351 Total 1,068,476 1,016,021 1,222,393 1,277,560

10 11

2008

2009

2010

787,655

904,831

941,981

2011

2012

2013

2014

980,539 1,060,921 1,151,935 1,240,106

293,347 286,669 323,505 364,004 349,944 354,521 350,473 105,840 155,543 226,811 273,600 351,535 427,104 459,162 38,633 41,133 37,037 41,807 41,634 47,659 52,608 64,425 64,542 61,223 61,567 75,294 89,837 101,084 1,289,900 1,452,718 1,590,557 1,721,517 1,879,328 2,071,056 2,203,433

See Oil Sands Areas As described in Methodology and Appendix I

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iii)

Annual Crude Oil Growth Rates from Oil Sands by Area Annual Crude Oil Growth Rates from Oil Sands by Area Area Athabasca North Cold Lake Conklin Peace River Wabiskaw Total

Average Annual Growth Rate Growth (bpd/year) 50,624 11,294 41,642 3,744 6,192 113,496

Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) 5.4% 4.0% 26.8% 13.2% 9.9% 7.5%

CAGRs were calculated for Athabasca North (5.4%), Cold Lake (4%), and Wabiskaw (9.9%) areas (Figure 4-iii). All areas exhibited CAGRs less than 10%, with the exception of the Peace River (13.2%) area, and the Conklin area which exhibited larger growth (26.8%)12.

12

Appendix II-iii and II-iv

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Annual Oil Sands Areas Production by Technology Regional production volumes were further sub-divided on the basis of technology to determine production trends in each area. Results are shown in Figure 5-i to 5-vi. Figure 5 Annual Crude Oil Production from Oil Sands by Area – Athabasca North

i)

1,200,000

Production (bpd)

1,000,000 800,000

Surface Mining SAGD

600,000 400,000 200,000 0

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Year Annual Crude Oil Production from Oil Sands by Area – Cold Lake

ii)

300,000

Production (bpd)

250,000 200,000

CSS Primary/EOR

150,000

SAGD

100,000 50,000 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Year

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Annual Crude Oil Production from Oil Sands by Area – Conklin

iii)

500,000 450,000

Production (bpd)

400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000

SAGD

200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000

0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Year Annual Crude Oil Production from Oil Sands Area by Area – Peace River

iv)

50,000

Production (bpd)

45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000

CSS

25,000

Primary/EOR

20,000

SAGD

15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Year

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Annual Crude Oil Production from Oil Sands Area by Region – Wabiskaw

v)

Production (bpd)

120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000

Primary/EOR SAGD

40,000 20,000 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Year

vi)

Annual Crude Oil Production (bpd) and Growth Rates from Oil Sands Regions by Technology 2004

Surface Mining 704,777

Athabasca 2009 2010

2005

2006

2007

2008

2011

2012

612,751

760,839

770,835

721,491

825,842

856,876

890,940

929,662

978,208 1,038,479

2013

2014 Growth (bbl/year) CAGR 33,370

4.0%

17,254

21.4%

SAGD

29,092

41,677

55,585

58,990

66,164

78,989

85,105

89,597

131,255

173,725

201,627

CSS Primary/EOR SAGD

2004 167,455 69,285 794

2005 189,912 56,048 634

2006 217,747 58,093 492

2007 216,196 62,879 6,325

2008 210,217 74,885 8,245

Cold Lake 2009 2010 202,468 233,681 74,226 79,097 9,975 10,728

2011 261,552 69,093 15,359

2012 261,787 65,520 22,637

2013 253,536 83,344 17,641

2014 Growth (bbl/year) CAGR 247,656 8,020 4.0% 83,225 1,394 1.9% 19,592 1,880 37.8%

SAGD

2004 42,741

2005 44,129

2006 52,304

2007 62,897

2008 105,840

Conklin 2009 2010 155,543 226,811

2011 273,600

2012 350,047

2013 425,787

2014 Growth (bbl/year) CAGR 459,162 41,642 26.8%

2004 2005 2006 CSS 8,080 8,948 6,530 Primary/EOR 7,087 12,916 13,548 SAGD *Not enough data to determine CAGR

2007 9,021 27,066 -

2008 8,812 29,821 -

Peace River 2009 2010 5,479 4,212 35,654 32,825 -

2011 2,512 30,674 9

2012 2,918 33,698 5,019

2013 2,995 36,310 1,003

2014 Growth (bbl/year) CAGR 4,010 -407 -6.8% 44,313 3,723 20.1% 4,285 1,425 *

2004 2005 2006 Primary/EOR 39,165 49,006 57,238 SAGD *Not enough data to determine CAGR

2007 63,351 -

2008 64,425 -

Wabiskaw 2009 2010 64,542 61,223 -

2011 61,279 288

2012 74,497 797

2013 89,837 897

2014 Growth (bbl/year) CAGR 99,426 5,478 9.8% 1,658 457 *

CAGRs for technologies in all regions exhibited similar growth displayed by technologies in the overall oil sands area (Figure 5-vi), with SAGD based production showing major growth in most producing regions.

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Annual Oil Sands Production - SAGD To further examine the growth trends for SAGD operations13, annual SAGD production was further analyzed to determine the steam-oil ratio (SOR). SOR is a measure of efficiency for thermal projects. It measures the average volume of steam needed to produce one barrel of bitumen. SOR is based on the amount of steam injected at a project site per barrel of oil produced. There are two ways to measure SOR: 1. Instantaneous steam-oil ratio (ISOR): measures the current or instantaneous rate of steam required to produce one barrel of bitumen. 2. Cumulative steam-oil ratio (CSOR): measures the average volume of steam (over the life of the operation) required to produce one barrel of bitumen. The annual (calendar year – January 1st to December 31st) SOR for SAGD projects were examined to identify ISOR and CSOR (Figure 6-ii and iii). A low SOR indicates that steam is more efficiently utilized and, as a result, the associated costs related to fuel and water is lower. Figure 6 i) Annual Crude Oil Production from Oil Sands - SAGD Production

800,000 700,000

Production (bpd)

600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000

SAGD

100,000 2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Year

13

Appendix II-ii

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ii) Annual Crude Oil Production from Oil Sands SAGD – Annual Weighted Average ISOR

140.0

5.0 4.5

120.0

4.0 100.0

3.5 3.0

Steam (e6m3)

80.0

2.5

Bitumen (e6m3)

60.0

2.0 Annual SOR (m3/m3)

40.0

1.5 1.0

20.0

0.5

0.0

0.0

Annual Average Steam to Oil Ratio (m3/m3)

Annual Steam Injection and Bitumen Production Million m3

All SAGD Wells in Alberta - Steam Quality ~100%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Year

All SAGD Wells in Alberta - Steam Quality ~100% CSOR

140.0

4.5 4.0

120.0

3.5

100.0 3.0 Steam (e6m3)

80.0

2.5

Bitumen (e6m3)

2.0

60.0 Cumulative SOR (m3/m3)

1.5

40.0 1.0

20.0

0.5

0.0

Cumulative Steam to Oil Ratio (m3/m3)

Annual Steam Injection and Bitumen Production Million m3

iii) Annual Crude Oil Production from Oil Sands SAGD – CSOR

0.0 2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009 2010 Year

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Comparing the CSOR from 2004 to 2014 shows a steady decline in steam use per barrel of bitumen produced for all SAGD projects operating in Alberta. In 2014, the average CSOR for SAGD bitumen production has dropped to 2.7.

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Annual Oil Sands Production - CSS As Alberta operators also use CSS as a thermal technology, annual CSS production was further analyzed to determine the ISOR and CSOR on absolute production. Figure 7 i) Annual Crude Oil Production from Oil Sands - CSS Production

300,000

Production (bpd)

250,000

CSS

200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009 Year

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

ii) Annual Crude Oil Production from Oil Sands CSS – Annual Weighted Average SOR

4.40

60.00

4.20

50.00

Annual Average Steam to Oil Ration (m3/m3)

Annual Steam Injection and Bitumen Production Million m3

All CSS Wells in Alberta - Steam Quality ~75% ISOR 70.00

4.00

40.00

3.80 30.00

3.60

20.00

Steam e6m3

3.40

10.00

Bitumen e6m3

0.00

3.20 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Year

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iii) Annual Crude Oil Production from Oil Sands CSS – CSOR

All CSS Wells in Alberta - Steam Quality ~75% CSOR

60.00 4.0

50.00 3.9

40.00 30.00

3.9

20.00 Steam e6m3

10.00

3.8

Bitumen e6m3 0.00

Cumulative Average Steam to Oil Ration

4.0

Annual Steam Injection and Bitumen Production Million m3

70.00

3.8 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Year

Comparing the CSOR from 2004 to 2014 shows a decline in steam use per barrel of bitumen produced for all CSS projects operating in Alberta. In 2015, the average CSOR for CSS bitumen production is around 3.8. It is important to note that CSS and SAGD SORs are not comparable on an energy basis as 75 percent quality steam for CSS contains less energy than the same water volume of steam at 100 percent quality for SAGD. Therefore, SAGD is not necessarily more energy efficient than CSS. Steam quality is the proportion of saturated steam (vapour) in a saturated liquid/vapour mixture. A steam quality of 0 percent indicates 100 percent liquid (condensate), while a steam quality of 100 percent indicates 100 percent of steam14.

14

Definition of steam quality - https://www.swagelok.com/~/media/Distributor%20Media/C-G/Chicago/Services/ES%20%20Steam%20Quality_BP_23.ashx, retrieved January 5, 2016.

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Appendix I 2004 – 2014 Oil Sands Project Production Volumes Please note - Appendix I has been removed due to confidential industry information.

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Appendix II Calculations Growth rates were calculated using Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) calculation: r = [(x1/x2)(1/n)] – 1 Where: r = Compounded annual growth rate x1 = 2014 annual production volume x2 = 2004 Annual Production volume n= Production Years/Periods Trend types and R-squared values were generated using Microsoft Excel. Please see figures below for corresponding equations. i) Annual Crude Oil Production from Oil Sands

Annual Crude Oil Production from Oil Sands 2,500,000

Production (bpd)

2,000,000

1,500,000

y = 8928.1x2 - 4E+07x + 4E+10 R² = 0.9912

1,000,000 Series1 Poly. (Series1)

500,000

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Year

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ii) Annual Crude Oil Production from Oil Sands by Technology

CSS

1,200,000

Surface Mining

Production (bpd)

1,000,000

Primary/EOR SAGD

y = 626629e0.0443x R² = 0.8806

800,000

y = 54379e0.2418x R² = 0.9924

Poly. (CSS) Expon. (Surface Mining) Expon. (Primary/EOR)

600,000

Expon. (SAGD)

400,000 y = -150.63x4 + 3593.8x3 - 28943x2 + 97238x + 101778 R² = 0.9091

200,000 y = 111062e0.0627x R² = 0.9085

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

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2009 Year

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

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iv) Annual Crude Oil Production from Oil Sands by Area

1,300,000

Athabasca North

1,200,000 Cold Lake

1,100,000 1,000,000

Conklin

y = 3605.2x2 + 8650.9x + 700669 R² = 0.9552

Production (bpd)

900,000 Peace River

800,000

Wabiskaw

700,000 600,000 y = -215.42x3 + 3278.1x2 + 531.13x + 237536 R² = 0.9271

500,000 400,000

Poly. (Cold Lake)

y = -568.78x3 + 14182x2 - 52684x + 89126 R² = 0.9969

300,000

Poly. (Athabasca North)

Poly. (Conklin)

200,000 y = 324.59x2 + 835.04x + 46125 R² = 0.8434

100,000

Linear (Peace y = 3317.3x + 15888 River) R² = 0.8656

0 2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Poly. (Wabiskaw)

Year

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