World Overview of Cleaner Fuels and Vehicle Trends Conference on Cleaner Fuels and Vehicles For Eastern Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia 2424-25 January 2008 Tbilisi, Georgia

Michael P. Walsh International Motor Vehicle Consultant Chairman, Board of Directors, International Council on Clean Transportation

International Council on Clean Transportation Goal of the ICCT is to dramatically reduce conventional pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions from personal, public and goods transportation in order to improve air quality and human health, and mitigate climate change.

Figure 6: Annual Production of Cars, Trucks and Buses 70

Millions

60

50

40

30 1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

R-square = 0.909 # pts = 34 y = -1.6e+009 + 8.3e+005x

Figure 5: World Motor Vehicle Population Millions 1200 1000 800 600

Motorcycles Commercial Vehicles Cars

400 200 0 1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

Calendar Year

1980

1990

2000

Automobiles and the Environment Global Environment

CO2

Urban Environment

Emissions VOC,NOx,PM

Alternative Fuels

Recycle

Energy Security

Economy Convenience

Safety

Growth of Vehicle Population in Shanghai, 19882002

E:\Changhong CHEN\对外合作\能源基金会\交通项目\基础数据\机动车统计报表.xls

6

China is Rapidly Moving From Coal Based Pollution To Motor Vehicle Related Pollution Shanghai November 2004

Beijing November 2004

Increased Risk of Premature Mortality Due To 10µg/m3 PM2.5 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3%

All Causes Pulmonary Lung Cancer

2% 1% 0% Journal of American Medical Association, March 2002 9

•OZONE AND PM CAUSE SERIOUS ADVERSE HEALTH EFFECTS INCLUDING PREMATURE DEATH

10

PM And Black Carbon Emissions Important For Both Urban Air Pollution and Global Climate Change • WHO Estimates ~ 800,000 Premature Deaths Each Year From All Sources – Primarily Urban PM • Black Carbon A Potent Greenhouse Pollutant- GWP Estimates Vary – Hansen et al – 2000 for 20 Year – Jacobsen 800-1200 – Delucchi CEF ~ 4700

Most Scientists Conclude That Climate Change Is Already Underway

Transportation is Most Rapidly Growing Contributor!

Annex 1 Party Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Energy Sector Change 1990-2004 (%) 30%

24%

20% 9%

10% 0% -4%

-10%

-8% -17%

-20% Energy Industries Transportation Manufacturing Industries and Construction

Fugitive Emissions Other Sectors

Hotter Days Lead to Higher Emissions and More Smog

0.30

Ozone (ppm)

0.25

hLos Angeles Ozone Levels (1995-1998))

0.20 0.15

h10 warmest years of the last century all occurred within the last 15 years.

0.10 California Ozone Standard

0.05 0.00 40

50

60

Source: Air Resources Board, 2000

70

80

90

Temperature (oF)

100

110

EU and US Passenger Car Exhaust Emissions Standards NOx Emissions Standards Grams/Kilometer 5

4

3

US Gasoline

EU Gasoline

US Diesel

EU Diesel

2

1

0 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009

1970 Car Vs. a 2007 Car in the US 1970's Vehicle

1990's Vehicle

CO2

700 gpm*

375 gpm

375 gpm

VOC

7.5 gpm

1.5 gpm

0.09 gpm

CO

88 gpm

19 gpm

4.2 gpm

NOx

3.5 gpm

1.6 gpm

0.07 gpm

Lead

0.22 gpm

0.00003 gpm

0.00003 gpm

Evap

11 gpm

0.9 gpm

0.03 gpm

12.7 mpg

23.7 mpg

23.7 mpg

50,000 miles

100,000 miles

120,000 miles**

In-use FE Useful Life

* gpm = grams per mile

2007 Vehicle EU = 130 By 2012

* 120,000 miles = ~ 193,000 km

Slide -- 16

Comparison of NOx and PM regulations for HD diesel vehicle among Japan, USA and Europe

PM g/kWh

0.3

1997 JAPAN

0.2

2003 JAPAN

1998 US

2004 US

0.1 2007 US

0.0 2009 JAPAN Challenging value

2000 EURO3

0

2008 EURO5

2005 JAPAN

2009 JAPAN

2

2005 EURO4

4

NOx g/kWh

ICCT Is Actively Encouraging Global Harmonization of HD Regulation To The Most Stringent Levels

Bellagio Principles • Design Programs & Policies That Reduce Conventional, Toxic, Noise and Greenhouse Emissions in Parallel • Treat Vehicles and Fuels As A System • Expect & Require Best Technologies and Fuels Worldwide – in Both Industrialized and Developing Countries

6

We Have Lots of Experience With Metallic Additives; Mostly Very Bad

The Experience With Lead • Lowest Cost Octane Booster • But Serious Health Impacts – Warning Signals Ignored or Suppressed for Over 50 Years – Still Marketed Today In Spite of Conclusive Proof of Toxicity to Children

• Destructive of Vehicle Pollution Controls

Blood Lead Levels Considered Elevated Micrograms per Deciliter 30

27

26

25 20

17

15 10

7

5 0 1975

1980

1985

1990

Year

Is Any Lead Acceptable From A Health Standpoint?

Global Distribution of On Road Unleaded Gasoline KTOE Thousands

18 Countries Remain; That’s 18 Too Many!

1200 1000 800 Dual Fuel Leaded Unleaded

600 400 200 0 2005

2008

2010

2010 Aggressive

What Other Fuel Changes Are Needed? • Some changes are required for emissions performance of exhaust treatment emissions devices Gasoline

Diesel

Very Low Sulphur : Exhaust Catalyst/particulate trap performance

• Some changes are required for combustion related emission improvements Gasoline

Diesel

Sulfur: SO2, HC, Nox, CO, Toxics RVP: HC, Toxics Benzene: Toxics Aromatics: Toxics, Nox, HC Oxygenates: CO (older vehicles) Olefins: Reactivity, toxics Distillation: HC, NOx

Sulfur: SO2, Nox,PM Cetane: HC, CO, NOx Density: PM, NOx

22

Close Linkage Between Vehicle Emissions Standards and Fuel Sulfur Levels 2000

2002

2004

15 months

EPA

Consent Decree 10/02

g/bhp-hr

2005

2006

Caterpillar, Cummins, Detroit Diesel, Volvo, Mack Trucks/Renault Navistar

2007

2008

2010

Diesel 15 ppm

EPA 98

EPA 04

EPA 07

NOx = 4.0 P = 0.10

NOx = 2.5 P = 0.10

NOx = 0.25 P = 0.01

EURO III NOx = 5.0 P = 0.10

EURO

Combined EURO III-IV

EURO IV

EURO V

NOx = 3.5 P = 0.02

NOx=2.0 P=0.02

Diesel 50/10 ppm

g/kW-hr

10/05

10/08

Why Low Sulfur Fuel? • Lowers Emissions From Existing Vehicles – SO2 From All Vehicles – PM From Diesel Vehicles – CO, HC, NOx, Toxics From All Catalyst Vehicles

• Enables Advanced Technologies & Tight Standards For New Vehicles • Enables Retrofit Technologies To Clean Up Existing Vehicles

Sulfur Poisoning of Catalyst Poisoning of Precious Metal HC, CO, NOx SO2 Precious Metal

Poisoning of Washcoat SO2

Lower O2 Storage Ability Cerium

SO3

CeO2 ⇒ Ce（SO4)2

O2 O2

Alumina Al2O3 ⇒ Al2（SO4)3

Precious Metal

Effects of Sulfur in Gasoline on Exhaust Emissions

SULEV

100

LEV1-LEV LEV1-LEV LEV2 ULEV SULEV

150

50 LEV,ULEV

SULEV

100

LEV1-LEV LEV1-LEV LEV2 ULEV SULEV

50 LEV,ULEV

0

0 -50

Relative NOx

Relative THC

150

0

100 200 300 400 500 Sulfur (ppmw)

600

-50

0

100

200 300 400 500 600 Sulfur (ppmw)

SULEV : Super Ultra Low Emission Vehicle, ULEV : Ultra Low Emission Vehicle, LEV : Low Emission Vehicle

SAE SAE 2000-01-2019 2000-01-2019

Increase in In-Use Vehicle Emissions in Bangkok Due To Sulfur in Fuel (Gasoline) Percent Increase Compared to 150 PPM Sulfur 67%

60%

500 ppm

800 ppm

50% 70%

40% 33%

30%

74% 30%

20% 26%

10% 0% CO/10

HC

NOx

Impact on Vehicles Meeting EURO 3 Standards

Global Distribution of On Road Gasoline Sulfur Content (PPM) 2005 10 3.5%

2008 Above 500 19.4%

10 16.8%

Above 500 18.8% 500 12.0%

500 16.9% 150 0.9%

50 59.3%

150 0.7% 50 51.7%

2010 10 17.8%

2010 Aggressive Above 500 18.4% 500 1.9%

Above 500 19.4% 500 10.5% 150 1.3%

50 51.0%

50 9.6% 10 70.1%

Linkage Between Fuel Sulfur and PM Emissions 0.06 PM Filter

0.05 PM Emissions grams/kilometer

Oxidation Catalyst

0.04 Other PM Sulfur

0.03 0.02 0.01 0 0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Fuel Sulfur PPM

Global Distribution of On Road Diesel Fuel Sulfur Content (PPM) 2005

2008

Total: 581,872

Total: 624,319

10/15 5.9%

Above 500

Above 500

16.6%

23.4%

50

29.9%

500

10/15

18.0%

57.2%

350

1.8%

350

1.8%

500

38.9%

50

6.4%

2010

2010 Aggressive

Total: 652,591

Total: 652,591

Above 500

Above 500

7.9%

16.5%

500

10.0%

500

14.0%

10/15 58.8%

350

3.0%

50

7.6%

10/15 61.8%

50

20.2%

In Addition To Cleaning Up Fuels

BE VERY CAREFUL WHAT YOU ADD!

The Same Company That Gave Us Lead Has Come Up With A New Gift MMT – Lowest cost lead alternative, octane response less than lead. – 10-20% of the MMT derived manganese from the fuel is emitted from the tailpipe- the majority remains within the engine, catalyst and exhaust system – Most major auto-makers recommend against using MMT, advising that any damage caused by MMT not covered by the warranty – Because of Growing Concerns Regarding Adverse Health Effects of Manganese & Possible Damage to Advanced Pollution Controls, Very little MMT is Used in OECD Countries and it is Banned in India & Brazil

Health Effects Institute Statement (December 2005) • There is a large body of evidence that – under certain circumstances, manganese can accumulate in the brain, – chronic exposure can cause irreversible neurotoxic damage over a lifetime of exposure, – manganese may cause neurobehavioral effects at relatively low doses, and – these effects follow inhalation of manganesecontaining particles. HEI’s Comments on the Afton Rebuttal; HEI is Much More Credible Than Afton.

Health Concerns With MMT Lead to the Brescia Declaration •

•

Scientific Committee on Neurotoxicology and Psychophysiology and the Scientific Committee on the Toxicology of Metals of the International Commission on Occupational Health (ICOH) convened an International Workshop; Scientists and physicians from 27 nations participated. Conclusions: – – – –

Exposures of pregnant women and young children to manganese need to be reduced to prevent subclinical neurotoxicity. In children, evidence from two recent epidemiological studies suggests that exposure to manganese in early life causes subclinical developmental neurotoxicity. The addition of organic manganese compounds to gasoline should be halted immediately in all nations. New data raise grave concerns about the likelihood that addition of manganese to gasoline could cause widespread developmental toxicity similar to that caused by the worldwide addition of tetraalkyllead to gasoline. These Doctors Are Much More Credible Than Afton!

Effects of Manganese Based-Gasoline Additive on Catalyst Performance (1) Effects of Mn concentration and Ex. Gas temp. on Catalyst Plugging Exhaust gas temperature

Close Coupled Catalyst Quick warm-up Higher Temperature

SAE2007-01-1070

Effects of Manganese Based-Gasoline Additive on Catalyst Performance (2) Effects of Mn concentration and Cell Density on Catalyst Plugging

Cold Bag NMHC, g/mile

High Cell Density 0.3 0.2 0.1 0

4mil 2mil 2mil 2mil 400cpsi 600cpsi 800cpsi 900cpsi

Cell Density SAE2007-01-1070

SAE 2003-01-0817

Conclusions • The health impacts of vehicles are very significant and without aggressive action are likely growing. • Stringent vehicle emissions standards are spreading around the world and combined with clean low sulfur fuels are a major step towards improving air quality and reducing health impacts. • Vehicle standards will not be as effective without equally stringent fuel quality standards. • Even in economic terms, the benefits of clean vehicles and fuels will far outweigh the costs. • Don’t replace the octane benefit from lead additives with other metallic additives which pose similar risks.

Costs & Benefits of Clean Fuels and Vehicles cost

Tier 2 Light-duty highway

benefit

Total Cost: $11 billion Total Benefits: $175 billion

Heavy-duty highway

Tier 4 nonroad

0

20

40

60

$ Billion Annually in 2030

80

100 38