Weekly Weather Flash
NOV.15 - Nov.28
United States • Nov. 15–21: North America Remains Warmer than Last Year, Keeping Seasonal Demand Soft. Severe Weather in the Southern Plains. Snow in the West, Rain in the East.
• Nov. 22–28: Finally…Thanksgiving Will Bring Colder Temperatures than Last Year Across Much of North America. A Wet Week Includes Threats of Rain over Black Friday Weekend.
Europe • Nov. 15–21: The Weather Remains Very Warm All over the Continent. • Nov. 22–28: A Cold Push for Western Europe Early in the Week, but Warmth Expands Back from the East Starting Midweek.
November 18, 2015
United States
Week of November 15–21
Temperature vs. L ast Year
Sports Drinks +3% Sweaters -‐2% Firewood -‐19%
Source: Planalytics
Retail implications: The unseasonably warm weather will persist and continue to hinder fall demand.
•
Last year saw the coldest third week of November in over 50 years: Only the West Coast saw warmer-‐than-‐normal temperatures, while the rest of the US saw the coldest third week of November in over 50 years.
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Severe weather outbreak: Heavy rain and severe thunderstorms will move across the Plains into the Mississippi Valley early in the week. High winds, hail and tornadoes will threaten these regions. Flash flooding is possible in the Lower Mississippi Valley. Heavy snow will move across the West early in the week.
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Tropics go quiet again: With Hurricane Kate a distant memory, the last two weeks of the 2015 tropical season look to be very quiet. Tropical showers will extend from the southern Gulf of Mexico into the Caribbean early in the week.
DEBORAH WEINSWIG, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR–HEAD OF GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
[email protected] US: 917.655.6790 H K: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 Copyright © 2015 The Fung Group. All rights reserved.
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November 18, 2015
United States Week of November 22-28
Temperature vs. Last Year
Jackets +9%
Source: Planalytics
Retail implications: With cold conditions reaching the West, strong seasonal demand can finally be expected.
•
Last year, this week was the warmest since 2011: Last year, the US had the warmest and wettest end to November since 2011, and the snowiest since 2001. Thanksgiving Day was the warmest since 2012, the wettest since 2010 and the snowiest since 1989. A storm early in the week cleared by Black Friday weekend, which was colder than normal, with below-‐normal levels of rain and snow.
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Thanksgiving and Black Friday weekend: A cold front will push across the Eastern US on Thanksgiving Day, and light rain is likely. The rain should linger into Black Friday weekend. Seasonal conditions are expected for the eastern half of the US, with the coldest temperatures focused in the West.
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Coldest in the West: Areas from the West Coast to the Plains will see colder-‐than-‐normal temperatures. The active pattern will continue, especially early in the week. Rain and snow are expected from the Rockies to the Plains.
DEBORAH WEINSWIG, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR–HEAD OF GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
[email protected] US: 917.655.6790 H K: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 Copyright © 2015 The Fung Group. All rights reserved.
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November 18, 2015
Europe
Week of November 15–21
Temperature vs. Last Year
Outerwear (Great Britain) ↓ Jumpers (Spain) ↓
Source: Planalytics
Retail implications: Demand for fall products will remain low, due to abnormally warm weather all over the continent.
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Remaining very warm: High pressure will continue to dominate the continent, keeping the high temperatures in place. Northern areas will be slightly cooler, with west to northwest winds.
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Wetter weather spreads south: The persistent storm track will shift southward slightly, bringing rain and gusty winds as far south as the Alps and Carpathians. The Mediterranean Basin will be mostly dry.
DEBORAH WEINSWIG, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR–HEAD OF GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
[email protected] US: 917.655.6790 H K: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 Copyright © 2015 The Fung Group. All rights reserved.
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November 18, 2015
Europe
Week of November 22–28
Temperature vs. Last Year
Winterwear (France) ↑ Heaters (Greece) ↓
Source: Planalytics
Retail implications: Cold weather conditions in Southern and Western Europe will drive demand for winter products. • Warmth will rebuild late in the week: The cold push will reach Central Europe early in the week, while warmth in the East will expand back into the West through the end of the month. • Rain will be focused in the East: Rain will fall along a stalled front in the East early in the week. Another round of rain will surge northward along the front to end the period.
DEBORAH WEINSWIG, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR–HEAD OF GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
[email protected] US: 917.655.6790 H K: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 Copyright © 2015 The Fung Group. All rights reserved.
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November 18, 2015 Deborah Weinswig, CPA
Executive Director—Head of Global Retail & Technology Fung Business Intelligence Centre New York: 917.655.6790 Hong Kong: +852 6119 1779
[email protected]
Filippo Battaini
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Marie Driscoll, CFA
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John Harmon, CFA
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Aragorn Ho
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John Mercer
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Shoshana Pollack
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Kiril Popov
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Jing Wang
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Steven Winnick
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DEBORAH WEINSWIG, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR–HEAD OF GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
[email protected] US: 917.655.6790 H K: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 Copyright © 2015 The Fung Group. All rights reserved.
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