Weather Hazards and Forests in NC Ryan Boyles State Climatologist N th C North Carolina li St State t U University i it [email protected] NC Forestry Association Annual Meeting Asheville, NC October 4, 2012

About the State Climate Office • Public Service Center at NCSU • Statewide p public resource for weather and climate information and services – Extension of research to community applications – Research on NC weather and climate – Outreach – Education NC Forestry Association - Asheville, NC - October 4, 2012

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Challenging Climate • Highly variable climate – Daily, y, seasonal,, multi-year, y , decadal variations – Only cool season has any predictability

• You name the weather, NC experiences it* – Every kind of severe weather – Few other locations face these challenges

• Extremes from day to day, day over short distances

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Extremes in NC Asheville Driest Weather Station 37.32 inches (annual average)

Lake Toxaway Wettest Weather Station 91.72 inches (annual avg.) NC Forestry Association - Asheville, NC - October 4, 2012

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Why is Weather & Climate Important? • Impacts everyday life • Economy is very sensitive – At least 1/3 of economic activity directly sensitive to weather and climate – $100B annual in NC

• Impacts to various sectors: – Agriculture, Agric lt re energ energy production, prod ction reser reservoirs, oirs cit city planning, infrastructure, tourism/recreation, insurance, wildfires, air/water quality

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Weather vs. Climate • Weather = short-term occurrence • Climate = long-term weather frequency Durham Bulls Individual Stats (Batting) Player Luke Scott Henry Wrigley Chris Gimenez Leslie Anderson Stephen Vogt Stephen Vogt Brandon Guyer Nevin Ashley Rich Thompson Cole Figueroa Jeff Keppinger Jeff Keppinger Matt Mangini

NC Forestry Association - Asheville, NC - October 4, 2012

POS DH 1B C 1B C RF C LF 2B 2B 1B

AB 8 225 152 323 218 85 48 218 206 21 293

AVG 0.375 0.342 0.336 0.316 0 307 0.307 0.294 0.292 0.289 0.286 0 286 0.286 0.276

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What does it mean for NC? • NC is sensitive to weather – Lots of Hazards – Enormous exposure in agriculture, natural resources,, tourism

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What forces f our climate? ? • • • •

Energy Balance Earth’s Earth s complex surface Earth’s atmospheric composition O Location Our L ti on E Earth th

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• Insert energy balance figure

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Latitude Topography p g p y

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Proximity to Oceans •11 11

RESULT – We get it all • Insert collage of hazards photos

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Variations in Climate • Short-term – Earth’s surface – Winter – Summer

• Longer-term – Atmospheric p composition p – Earth’s surface

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El Niño – Ocean Temps •you you are here

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•Typical T i l El Niñ Niño Winter Wi t Jet J t Stream St

•Storms, moisture track along •Storms •Gulf of Mexico & east of •Appalachian Mountains •Several coastal storms

•Forest Biology Research NC •EPA-NIEHS Forestry Cooperative Association ClimateAnnual Change - Asheville, Advisory Workshop, NC Council - October June Meeting, 17,4,2011 2012 September 30, 2011

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•El El Niñ Niño Winter Wi t Precipitation P i it ti •Decreased D d Precip P i

•Increased Precip

•Forest Biology Research NC Forestry Cooperative Association Annual - Asheville, AdvisoryNC Council - October Meeting, 4, 2012 September 30, 2011

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La Niña - Ocean Anomalies •you you are here

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•La L Niñ Niña Winter Wi t Jet J t Stream St

•Storms, moisture track along •Ohio River Valley & west of •Appalachian Mountains •Few to zero coastal storms

•Forest Biology Research NC Forestry Cooperative Association Annual - Asheville, AdvisoryNC Council - October Meeting, 4, 2012 September 30, 2011

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•La L Niñ Niña Winter Wi t Precipitation P i it ti •Increased I d Precip P i

•Decreased Precip

•Forest Biology Research NC Forestry Cooperative Association Annual - Asheville, AdvisoryNC Council - October Meeting, 4, 2012 September 30, 2011

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Bermuda High Pressure • Strength, location is crucial to amount of warm season p precipitation p in SEUS  drought • Unpredictable beyond few days in advance

NCSU Alumni Reception - Asheville, NC - July 20, 2011

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Typical Summer Conditions

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Typical Summer Drought (2007)

Drought

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Climate and Forests • Complexity help drive forest diversity • Growth, Growth productivity due to warm warm, moist conditions • Hazards create risk

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Climate Risks to Forests • • • •

Ice Drought Thunderstorms /Lightning Wi d Wind

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Hail ? •Hail Events: 2002-2011

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Tornadoes 1982-2011

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Tornadoes?

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Hurricanes

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Pests – Disease and Insects • Tree disease, insects impacted by weather

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Long-term Changes • Atmospheric Composition • Cloud type and amounts • Surface land/ocean – land l d use – vegetation – ice i cover

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Changing Impacts to Forests? • Possible increase in drought, lightning activity y • Fewer, more intense hurricanes • Already experience almost every climate hazards • Known K managementt strategies t t i will ill continue to be important NC Forestry Association - Asheville, NC - October 4, 2012

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Climate Challenges in NC • Challenges in monitoring, predicting impacts p – Hourly, daily decision making – Seasonal, long term planning

• NC is vulnerable to our extreme weather and climate – Good planning can increase resilience

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Climate Science Needs • Observations – Source for all scientific advancement – Must be local, accurate

• Applications – Tools to let public, businesses use science

• Education – Lots of climate awareness, little climate education

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How do we meet the challenge? • Integrated sciences – Multi Multi-disciplinary disciplinary – Extension, research, education

• Training for undergraduate undergraduate, graduate students • Applied science research – Doesn’t end with a science paper

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[email protected] http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu p 919 515 3056 or 877 919-515-3056 877-718-5544 718 5544

How do we monitor and detect? • Remote Sensing (Satellite, Radar) • Surface sensors • Proxies – Tree T rings i – Ice cores – Soil S il sediment di t cores

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How do we predict? • Models – Weather – Seasonal climate – Long Long-term term climate – Downscaling – Validation

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