Weather Forecasting: Will We Ever Get it Right?!#$

From: http://www.offthemark.com/search-results/key/weatherman/

Weather Forecasting Can Be a Very Dangerous Business!!

Hurricane Hunters

Weather Forecasting Can Be a Dangerous Occupation Weatherman Francisco Arias Olivera was a popular TV personality in the small Peruvian town of Sicuani with its 21,000 residents. The story goes that everyone trusted Francisco’s weather predictions until one ill-fated day when a forecasted 2-inch rainfall turned into a 19-inch deluge that inundated the region. The Vilcanota River surged over its banks and tore through the town, washing away 250 homes and drowning 17 unsuspecting residents.

Essentials of Meteorology: An Invitation to the Atmosphere, by C. Donald Ahrens, (3rd edition). 2001. Pacific Grove, California: Brooks/Cole. (p. 227).

Weather Forecasting Can Be a Dangerous Occupation Outraged citizens stormed the town’s only TV station, claiming that Francisco had not done his job. Several vigilantes dragged the bewildered weatherman from his office to a tree behind the station and lynched him. Six people were charged with murder but were released upon claiming justifiable homicide.

Essentials of Meteorology: An Invitation to the Atmosphere, by C. Donald Ahrens, (3rd edition). 2001. Pacific Grove, California: Brooks/Cole. (p. 227).

Rumor has it that the town is almost back to normal… except that the forecasting position is still open at the TV station!!

Essentials of Meteorology: An Invitation to the Atmosphere, by C. Donald Ahrens, (3rd edition). 2001. Pacific Grove, California: Brooks/Cole. (p. 227).

Weather Lore The body of informal tales, music, legends, oral history, proverbs, jokes, popular beliefs, customs, etc. related to the prediction of the weather.

Which of the following weather sayings do you think are true?

Red sky at night, sailor's delight, Red sky in the morning, sailors take warning.

Mackerel sky and mares' tails make lofty ships carry low sails.

Red sky at night, sailor's delight, Red sky in the morning, sailors take warning.

Seagull, seagull sit on the sand. It's never good weather when you're on land.

Seagull, seagull sit on the sand. It's never good weather when you're on land.

When halo rings the moon or sun, rain's approaching on the run.

When windows won't open, and the salt clogs the shaker, The weather will favour the umbrella maker!

When windows won't open, and the salt clogs the shaker, The weather will favour the umbrella maker!

A cow with its tail to the West makes the weather best, A cow with its tail to the East makes the weather least.

A coming storm your shooting corns presage, And aches will throb, your hollow tooth will rage.

A coming storm your shooting corns presage, And aches will throb, your hollow tooth will rage.

If spring comes in like a lion, it will go out like a lamb.

And celebrated every year in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania: “…If on February 2, Groundhog Day, the groundhog sees its shadow, six weeks of winter remain. If not, spring will follow immediately…”

Handler for Punxsutawney Phil groundhog apologizes for failed early spring forecast Ohio prosecutor… threatens charges 10:46 AM, Mar 25, 2013

PITTSBURGH - An Ohio prosecutor who has… filed charges against the famous Pennsylvania groundhog who fraudulently "predicted" an early spring says he may consider a pardon now that the animal's handler is taking the blame. That's right, Bill Deeley, president of the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club's Inner Circle says the animal rightly predicted six more weeks of winter, but Deeley tells The Associated Press he mistakenly announced an early spring because he failed to correctly interpret Phil's "groundhog-ese." Butler County, Ohio prosecutor, Mike Gmoser tells the AP he's reconsidering the charges in light of the new evidence and may issue a full pardon.

The Associated Press, 2013

Frequently Asked Questions About Groundhog Day 1. Yes, Punxsutawney Phil is the only true weather forecasting groundhog. The others are just imposters. 2. There has been only one Punxsutawney Phil. Punxsutawney Phil gets his longevity from drinking "groundhog punch" (a secret recipe). One sip, which is administered every summer at the Groundhog Picnic, gives him seven more years of life. 3. On February 2nd, Phil comes out of his burrow on Gobbler's Knob, in front of thousands of faithful followers from all over the world, to predict the weather for the rest of the winter. 4. According to legend, if Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow, there will be six more weeks of winter weather. If he does not see his shadow, there will be an early spring. 5. No, Punxsutawney Phil's forecasts are not made in advance by the Inner Circle. After Phil emerges from his burrow on February 2nd, he speaks to the Groundhog Club President in Groundhogese. His proclamation is then translated for the world. 6. The celebration of Groundhog Day began with the Germans, Pennsylvania's earliest settlers. They brought with them the legend of Candlemas Day, which states "For as the sun shines on Candlemas day, so far will the snow swirl in May...". The settlers found that groundhogs were plentiful and were the most intelligent and sensible animal to carry on the legend of Candlemas Day. 7. Punxsutawney held its first Groundhog Day in the 1800's. The first official trek to Gobbler's Knob made on February 2nd, 1887. 8. So the story goes, Punxsutawney Phil was named after King Phillip. Prior to being called Phil, he was called Br'er Groundhog. From: The Punxsutawney Groundhog Club – Groundhog Day – (est. 1887) http://www.groundhog.org/more-to-know/faq/

A Little History About Weather Forecasting -> Aristotle’s Meteorologica (~340 BC)

-> Invention & Design of Weather Instruments -> Hygrometer (Nicolas Cusa - c. 1401-1464) -> Thermometer (Galileo Galilei - 1564-1642) -> Barometer (Evangelista Toricelli – 1608-1647)

-> Telegraph & Telegraph Networks (mid 1800’s) -> Weather Balloons/ Radiosondes (1920s) -> Mathematical Equations to Describe the Atmosphere (Vilhelm Bjerknes – 1904)

-> Use of Computers in Numerical Weather Prediction

(Institute for Advanced Study - Princeton, NJ - late 1940s)

-> Satellite Technology

(Tiros-1 launched 01 April 1960)

Satellite Images – 50 Years Apart

From: http://www.earth.nasa.gov/history/tiros/tiros.html http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat_products.html

Some Data Sources Used To Help Forecast the Constantly-Changing Weather Conditions

Surface Observations

Weather Station Networks

Anne Arundel Community College WeatherBug Stations – Arnold, Glen Burnie, Hanover Campuses http://weather.weatherbug.com/MD/Arnold-weather.html?zcode=z6286&zip=21012 http://weather.weatherbug.com/MD/Glen%20Burnie-weather.html?zcode=z6286 http://weather.weatherbug.com/MD/Hanover-weather.html

Surface Weather Data & Analysis

Upper Air Data & Analysis

Weather Balloon

Radiosonde

Weather Person

Upper Air “Soundings” from Weather Balloon Radiosondes

Ground-Based Precipitation Radar

Satellite Imagery (Visible)

Satellite Imagery (Infrared)

Animated Infrared Satellite Imagery

Microwave Satellite Imagery:

Wind Speeds Over the Ocean

Weather Forecasters Need Thick Skins!!

“…When I get it right, nobody remembers… When I get it wrong, nobody forgets…” -the weather forecasters’ lament-

Weather Forecasters Need Thick Skins!!

Actual Weather Conditions Rain

Rain

Predicted Weather Conditions No Rain

No Rain

Weather Forecasters Need Thick Skins!!

Actual Weather Conditions Rain

Rain

Predicted Weather Conditions No Rain

No Rain

Weather Forecasters Need Thick Skins!!

Actual Weather Conditions Rain

Rain

Predicted Weather Conditions No Rain

No Rain

Weather Forecasters Need Thick Skins!!

Actual Weather Conditions Rain

Rain

Predicted Weather Conditions No Rain

No Rain

Weather Forecasters Need Thick Skins!!

Actual Weather Conditions Rain

Rain

Predicted Weather Conditions No Rain

No Rain

Weather Forecasters Need Thick Skins!! People will be happy with the weather forecaster only 25% of the time!! (Only when the forecast calls for “no rain” AND it does not rain!!). 

Actual Weather Conditions Rain

Rain

Predicted Weather Conditions No Rain

No Rain

Chaos Theory …the study of nonlinear dynamics, in which seemingly random events are actually predictable from simple deterministic equations… “…The flapping of a single butterfly's wing today produces a tiny change in the state of the atmosphere. Over a period of time, what the atmosphere actually does diverges from what it would have done. So, in a month's time, a tornado that would have devastated the Indonesian coast doesn't happen. Or maybe one that wasn't going to happen, does…” (Ian Stewart, Does God Play Dice? The Mathematics of Chaos, pg. 141)

Part of chaos theory deals with “sensitive dependence on initial conditions” a circumstance discovered by Edward Lorenz (who is generally credited as the first experimenter in the area of chaos) in the early 1960s.

Animation of a double compound pendulum showing chaotic behavior. The two sections have the same length and mass, with the mass being distributed evenly along the length of each section, and the pivots being at the very ends.

“…the essence of chaos theory – very small changes in a system can have very large and unexpected consequences…”

Animation of a double compound pendulum showing chaotic behavior. The two sections have the same length and mass, with the mass being distributed evenly along the length of each section, and the pivots being at the very ends.

“…the essence of chaos theory – very small changes in a system can have very large and unexpected consequences…”

Lorenz’s Conclusion: “…it is impossible to predict weather more than three weeks ahead of time with any degree of certainty…”

Some Basic Mathematical Equations in Meteorology

Γs = Γdry + Lv dws cp dz

“...there is no way to solve problems on the sphere that does not require some complicated programming and careful attention to detail…” “…In the future, weather forecasts will be even more accurate and more detailed than forecasts nowadays. And who knows, maybe one day mathematicians will find a way to overcome the two weeks forecasting limit, so that long-range forecasts can be produced…” Stefanie Eminger (University of St Andrews) http://www-groups.dcs.st-and.ac.uk/history/HistTopics/Weather_forecasts.html

“Discovering” the Jet Stream

The “jet stream” had already been theorized to exist for a number of years before, but in November 1944 high-altitude B-29s, flying a mission to Tokyo, actually verified the strong winds which blow in a general west-to-east direction.

Forecasting the Weather: A Beach Ball Analogy (Professor Marshall Shepherd)

Accuracy in Weather Forecasting Improvements in the Future?

“...there is no way to solve problems on the sphere that does not require some complicated programming and careful attention to detail…” “…In the future, weather forecasts will be even more accurate and more detailed than forecasts nowadays. And who knows, maybe one day meteorologists & mathematicians will find a way to overcome the two weeks forecasting limit, so that long-range forecasts can be produced…”

Will We Be Able To Control the Weather? Do We Want To?

The Human Factor in Weather Prediction

The Human Factor in Weather Prediction

We also feel better having a human to blame for bad forecasts rather than blaming a computer!! 

Questions or Comments??

Dan V. Ferandez Physical Sciences Department 410-777-2031 [email protected]

References Ahrens, C. D. (2001). Essentials of Meteorology: An Invitation to the Atmosphere, (3rd ed.) Brooks/Cole Thomson Learning. American Meteorological Society DataStreme Atmosphere Project, http://www.ametsoc.org/dstreme Chaos Theory: A Brief Introduction http://www.imho.com/grae/chaos/chaos.html Hess, S. (1979). Introduction to Theoretical Meteorology. Malabar, FL: Krieger Publishing Company. Intellicast.com – The Authority in Expert Weather http://www.intellicast.com/ NASA – Earth Observatory http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Library/WxForecasting/printall.php NRL Monterey Satellite Meteorology http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat_products.html WeatherBug http://www.weather.weatherbug.com