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VIETNAM ANIMAL FEED ANNUAL REPORT 2012 AND OUTLOOK FOR 2013

Analysts: Tran Ngoc Yen Tran Thi Nga

Vietnam Market Analysis and Forecast Joint Stock Company AgroMonitor 5th Floor, No.97 Hao Nam Street, O Cho Dua Ward, Dong Da District, Hanoi Tel: +84 4 62733596 Fax: +84 4 62730190 Website: www.agromonitor.vn Customer Service Department : Tel: + 84 943 411 411 Email: [email protected]

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Vietnam Animal Feed Annual Report 2012 & Outlook for 2013

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Vietnam Animal Feed Annual Report 2012 & Outlook for 2013

TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES LIST OF TABLES ABBREVIATIONS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY PART I: WORLD FEED INGREDIENT MARKET I. Corn – DDGS 1. Supply 2. Demand 3. Trade 4. Development of corn prices in 2012 II. Wheat 1. Supply 2. Demand 3. Trade 4. Development of wheat prices in 2012 III. Soybeans - Soymeal 1. Supply 2. Demand 3. Trade 4. Development of soybean and soymeal prices IV. Peruvian fishmeal PART II. VIETNAM FEED INGREDIENT MARKET I. Domestic feed ingredient production II. Feed ingredient imports 1. General imports 2. Imports by type 3

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Vietnam Animal Feed Annual Report 2012 & Outlook for 2013

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2.1. Ingredients providing calories 2.1.1. Whole-grain corn, DDGS and corn gluten 2.1.2. Wheat 2.1.3. Wheat bran and rice bran 2.2. Ingredients providing protein 2.2.1. Oilmeals 2.2.2. Ingredients providing protein 2.3. Feed additives 3. Imports by market 3.1. Argentina 3.2. Australia 3.3. India 3.4. Brazil 3.5. The United States 4. Imports of ingredients and finished feed by enterprise III. Developments of ingredient import prices and domestic prices in 2012 1. Development of import prices 1.1. Soymeal-Rapeseed meal 1.2. Fishmeal – Bone-meat meal 1.4. Wheat 2. Developments of domestic ingredient prices 2.1. Whole-grain corn 2.2. Feed cassava IV. Some factors affecting feed and ingredient market 1. Feed production 2. Macro-economic changes 3. Husbandry and aquaculture situation PART III: OUTLOOK 4

Vietnam Animal Feed Annual Report 2012 & Outlook for 2013

I. World feed ingredient supply – demand – price 1. Corn 2. Wheat 3. Soybeans 4. Fishmeal II. Domestic feed ingredient demand – supply - prices 1. Plan of husbandry and fishery sectors in 2013 1.1. Plan of husbandry sector 1.2. Plan of fishery sector 2. Plan for animal feed sector in 2013 Regarding material zone expansion Regarding the production plan 3. Outlook on prices of feed ingredients and imports APPENDIX APPENDIX IN STATISTICAL INDICATORS

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LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1: Global corn output and harvested area by year, 2000-2012 (Million ton, million ha) Figure 2: Global corn yield by year, 2000-2012 (Ton/ha) Figure 3: Corn output of the world’s major corn producing countries, 20102012 (Million tons) Figure 4: Corn output proportion of major producing countries, 2011-2012 (%) Figure 5: Correlation between global corn output and consumption, 2000-2012 (Million tons) Figure 6: Top 10 corn consuming countries in the world, 2011-2012 (Million tons) Figure 7: Corn export volume proportion of top countries, 2010-2012 (%) Figure 8: Top 10 corn importing countries in the world, 2010/11-2011/12 (Million tons) Figure 9: Development of CBOT corn prices by month, 2011-2012 (US$/ton) Figure 10: Development of CBOT corn prices by day, 2011-2012 (US$/ton) Figure 11: Global wheat harvested area and wheat output, 2000-2012 (Million ha, million tons) Figure 12: Top 10 wheat producing countries in the world, 2011-2012 (Million tons) Figure 13: Correlation between wheat output and wheat consumption by year, 2000-2012 (Million tons) Figure 14: Top 10 wheat consuming countries in the world, 2010/20112011/2012 (Million tons) Figure 15: Wheat export volume proportion of major countries, 2010/20112011/2012 (%) Figure 16: Wheat imports of major countries, 2010/2011-2011/2012 (Million tons) Figure 17: Development of CBOT wheat prices by month, 2000-2012 (US$/ton) 6

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Figure 18: Development of CBOT wheat prices by day, 2011- 2012 (US$/ton) . Figure 19: Global soybean-planted area and output by year, 2000-2012 (Million tons) Figure 20: Soybean output of three major producing countries by year, 2008/2009-2011/2012 (Million tons) Figure 21: Global soymeal output by year, 2000/2001-2011/2012 (Million tons) Figure 22: Soymeal output of top producing countries in the world, 2010/20112011/2012 (Million tons) Figure 23: Correlation between global soybean output and consumption by year, 2000/2001-2011/2012 (Million tons) Figure 24: Correlation between global soymeal output and consumption by year, 2000/2001-2011/2012 (Million tons) Figure 25: Top 10 soybean consuming countries in the world, 2010/20112011/2012 (Million tons) Figure 26: Top 10 soymeal consumers in the world, 2010/2011-2011/2012 (Million tons) Figure 27: Soybean export volume proportion of major producers, 2010/20112011/2012 Figure 28: Soymeal export volume proportion of major producers, 2010/20112011/2012 Figure 29: Soybean importhe top countriesortion of top countries in the world, 2010/2011-2011/2012 (%) Figure 30: Soymeal imports of top countries, 2010/2011-2011/2012 (Million tons) Figure 31: Development of CBOT soybean prices by month, 2000-2012 (US$/ton) Figure 32: Development of CBOT soymeal prices by month, 2000-2012 (US$/ton) Figure 33: Global fishmeal output by year, 2000-2012 (Million tons) Figure 34: Correlation between global fishmeal output and consumption by year, 2008-2012 (Million tons) 7

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Figure 35: Correlation between fishmeal exports and imports by year, 20062012 (Million tons) Figure 36: Development of Peruvian fishmeal 65% protein by month, 20002012 (US$/ton) Figure 37: Imports of feed and ingredients of Vietnam by month, January 2010-October 2012 (Million US$) Figure 38: Imports of five major ingredients for the first 10 months of 2012 and compared to the same period of 2011 (Million US$) Figure 39: Growth in import value of 10 most-imported ingredients in 2012 (compared to 2011) (%) Figure 40: Import proportion of feed and ingredients of Vietnam for the first 10 months of 2012 and compared to the same period of 2011 (%) Figure 41: Top 10 feed and ingredient exporters to Vietnam for the first 10 months of 2012 (compared to the same period of 2011) (%) Figure 42: Top 10 feed and ingredient exporters to Vietnam with high value growth rate for the first 10 months of 2012 (Million US$, %) Figure 43: Imports of whole-grain corn, DDGS and corn gluten of Vietnam by month, 2011-2012 (Million US$) Figure 44: Imports of whole-grain corn, DDGS and corn gluten of Vietnam by month, 2011-2012 (Thousand tons) Figure 45: Wheat imports of Vietnam, 2011-2012 (Thousand tons, million US$) Figure 46: Correlation between wheat import volume of Vietnam and CBOT wheat prices (Thousand tons, US$/ton) Figure 47: Imports of wheat bran and rice bran of Vietnam, 2011-2012 (Thousand tons) Figure 48: Imports of wheat bran and rice bran of Vietnam, 2011-2012 (Million US$) Figure 49: Vietnam’s imports of oilmeals, 2011-2012 (Million US$) Figure 50: Correlation between soybean import value and soymeal import value of Vietnam, 2011-2012 (Million US$) Figure 51: Imports of oilmeals by type, 2011-2012 (Thousand tons) 8

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Figure 52: Imports of soybeans by market for the first 10 months, 2011-2012 (Million US$) Figure 53: Imports of ingredients providing protein of Vietnam, 2011-2012 (Million US$) Figure 54: Import proportion of protein meals of Vietnam by type for the first 10 months of 2012 and compared to the same period of 2011 (%) Figure 55: Imports of protein meals by month, 2011-2012 (Thousand tons) Figure 56: Imports of feed additives of Vietnam, 2011-2012 (Million US$) Figure 57: Imports of feed and ingredients of Vietnam from Argentina, 20112012 (Million US$) Figure 58: Structure of feed and ingredients imported by Vietnam from India for the first 10 months of 2011 and 2012 (%) Figure 59: Imports of feed and ingredients of Vietnam from Brazil for the first 10 months of 2011 and 2012 (Million US$) Figure 60: Structure of ingredients imported from the U.S. for the first 10 months of 2011 and 2012 (%) Figure 61: Imports of top 20 feed and ingredient importing enterprises for the first 10 months of 2011 and 2012 (Million US$) Figure 62: Prices of soymeal imported to Vietnam ports from some major markets, 2010-2012 (US$/ton, CFR) Figure 63: Prices of fishmeal imported from major markets for the first 10 months of 2012 (US$/ton, CFR) Figure 64: Prices of fishmeal imported from Peru by month, 2011-2012 (US$/ton, CFR) Figure 65: Prices of bone-meat meal imported from Italy by month, 2011-2012 (US$/ton, CFR) Figure 66: Prices of DDGS imported from the U.S. by month, 2011-2012 (US$/ton, CFR) Figure 67: Average wheat import prices from some markets in 2012 (US$/ton) Figure 68: Prices of wheat imported from Australia by month, 2009-2012 (US$/ton)

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Vietnam Animal Feed Annual Report 2012 & Outlook for 2013

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Figure 69: Procurement prices of whole-grain corn of enterprises in 2012 (VND/kg) Figure 70: Procurement prices of domestic feed cassava of Vietnam in 2012 (VND/kg) Figure 71: Production index of feed for livestock, poultry and fisheries by month, 2011-2012 (%) Figure 72: Changes in production index of feed for livestock, poultry and fisheries by month in 2012, compared to the same period last year (%) Figure 73: Base interest rate of Vietnam dong, 2009-2012 (%) Figure 74: Forecast on world corn prices in 2013-2020 by WB (US$/ton) Figure 75: Forecast on wheat prices in 2012-2020 by WB (US$/ton) Figure 76: Forecast on soybean and soymeal prices in 2012 - 2020 by WB (US$/ton) Figure 77: Industrial animal feed output (converted), 2009-2013 (Thousand tons)

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Vietnam Animal Feed Annual Report 2012 & Outlook for 2013

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LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Changes in soybean output of the world and some major producing countries, 2010/11-2011/12 Table 2: Area and output of some major crops used as feed ingredients, 20112012 (Thousand ha, Thousand tons) Table 3: Imports of soymeal by market for the first 10 months of 2012 and compared to the same period of 2011 (Thousand tons, Million US$, %) Table 4: Imports of rapeseed meal by markets for the first 10 months of 2012 and compared to the same period of 2011 (Thousand tons, Million US$, %) Table 5: Imports of feed and ingredients of Vietnam from Australia for the first 10 months of 2011 and 2012 (Million US$) Table 6: Top 20 feed and ingredient importing enterprises for the first 10 months of 2011 and 2012 (Million US$) Table 7: Changes in rank of top 20 feed and ingredient importing enterprises for the first 10 months of 2012 and compared to the same period of 2011 Table 8: Changes in rank of top 20 feed and ingredient importing enterprises for the first 10 months of 2011 and compared to the same period of 2012 Table 9: Imports of feed and ingredients of top 5 enterprises by month, 20112012 (Million US$) Table 10: Prices of bone-meat meal imported from markets for the first 10 months of 2012 and compared to the same period of 2011 (US$/ton, CFR) Table 11: Average import prices of DDGS and corn gluten of Vietnam from some major markets, 2011-2012 (US$/ton, CFR) Table 12: Average corn import prices by month in 2012 (US$/ton, CFR) Table 13: Prices of corn imported by market in 2012 (US$/ton, CFR) Table 14: Prices of corn imported from India to Vietnam through some ports in 2012 (US$/ton, CFR) Table 15: Prices of corn imported from Cambodia to Vietnam in 2012 (US$/ton, DAF) Table 16: 2012/2013 global corn supply – demand (Million tons) Table 17: 2012/13 global wheat supply – demand (Million tons) 11

Vietnam Animal Feed Annual Report 2012 & Outlook for 2013

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Table 18: 2012/13 global soybean and soymeal supply – demand (Million tons) Table 19: 2012/13 fishmeal supply – demand (Million tons) Table 20: Plan for raising the number of livestock and poultry in 2013 (Thousand units) Table 21: Plan of fishery sector in 2013 Table 22: Forecast on Vietnam economic growth in 2012 and 2013 from major international economic organizations Table 23: USDA’s forecast on Vietnam’s imports of corn, wheat, soybeans and soymeal in 2013 (compared to 2012, million tons) Table 24: Corn harvested area, output and consumption of the world, 2000/2001-2011/2012 (Million ton, million ha) Table 25: Top 5 corn producing countries in the world (Million tons) Table 26: Top 10 corn consuming countries in the world (Million tons) Table 27: Corn export proportion of major countries (%) Table 28: Top 10 corn exporting countries in the world, 2010/2011-2011/2012 (Million tons) Table 29: Wheat area, output and consumption of the world, 2000/20012011/2012 (Million ha, Million tons) Table 30: Wheat output of some major countries, 2011-2012 (Million tons) Table 31: Top 10 wheat consuming countries in the world, 2010/20112011/2012 (Million tons) Table 32: Wheat export proportion of major countries, 2010/2011-2011/2012 (%) Table 33: Top 10 wheat importing countries in the world, 2010/20112011/2012 (Million tons) Table 34: Soybean area, output and consumption of the world, 2000/20012011/2012 (Million ha, Million tons) Table 35: Soybean output of three major producing countries, 2008/20092011/2012 (Million tons) Table 36: Soymeal output and consumption of the world, 2000/20012011/2012 (Million tons) 12

Vietnam Animal Feed Annual Report 2012 & Outlook for 2013

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Table 37: Top 10 soybean consuming countries in the world, 2010/20112011/2012 (Million tons) Table 38: Top 10 soymeal consuming countries in the world, 2010/20112011/2012 (Million tons) Table 39: Soybean import proportion of major countries, 2010/2011-2011/2012 (%) Table 40: Soymeal imports of major countries, 2010/2011-2011/2012 (Million tons) Table 41: Fishmeal output and consumption of the world, 2008-2012 (Million tons) Table 42: Fishmeal imports and exports of the world, 2006-2012 (Million tons) Table 43: Imports of feed and ingredients of Vietnam by month, 2010-2012 (Million US$) Table 44: Imports of feed and ingredients of Vietnam by type for the first 10 months, 2011-2012 Table 45: Top 10 exporters of feed and ingredients to Vietnam for the first 10 months, 2011-2012 (Million US$) Table 46: Top 10 feed and ingredient importing countries in value growth rate for the first 10 months of 2012 and compared to the same period of 2011 (Million US$, %) Table 47: Imports of DDGS, corn gluten and whole-grain corn by month, 2011-2012 (Thousand tons) Table 48: Imports of DDGS, corn gluten and whole-grain corn by month, 2011-2012 (Million US$) Table 49: Imports of wheat by month, 2011-2012 (Thousand tons, million US$) Table 50: Imports of rice bran and wheat bran by month, 2011-2012 (Thousand tons, million US$) Table 51: Imports of oilmeals by type for the first 10 months, 2011-2012 (Thousand tons, million US$, %) Table 52: Imports of oilmeals by month, 2011-2012 (Thousand tons) Table 53: Imports of ingredients providing protein, 2011-2012 (Million US$) 13

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Table 54: Imports of feed and ingredients from Argentina for the first 10 months, 2011-2012 (Million US$, %) Table 55: Imports of feed and ingredients from India, for the first 10 months, 2011-2012 (Million US$, %) Table 56: Imports of feed and ingredients from Brazil, for the first 10 months, 2011-2012 (Million US$, %) Table 57: Imports of feed and ingredients from the United States, for the first 10 months, 2011-2012 (Million US$, %) Table 58: Prices of fishmeal imported from Peru by month, 2011-2012 (US$/ton, CFR) Table 59: Prices of bone-meat meal imported from Italy by month, 2011-2012 (US$/ton, CFR) Table 60: Prices of DDGS and corn gluten imported from the United States by month, 2011-2012 (US$/ton, CFR)

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