Upstream versus Downstream interventions Banny Banerjee Associate Professor Stanford d.school, Stanford Design Program Director, Stanford ChangeLabs Associate Professor
d.
Mechanical Engineering Department Stanford University
With contributions from
Jason Bade Johannes Zachrisson Daae David Miller S TA N F O R D
DESIGN
ChangeLabs.
PROGRAM
Global Score Card 2030 Targets
Confidence Level
50% reductions in CO2e 45-50% more FOOD 39-45% more ENERGY 40% more FRESHWATER 3-4 orders of magnitude
LOW
slowdown in EXTINCTION rates
0
in EXTREME POVERTY
($1.25/Day)
LOW LOW LOW NIL LOW
Sources: The energy challenge, Mike Hightower1 & Suzanne A. Pierce, Nature 452, 285-286 (20 March 2008). Word Bank 2013 Water report, Information brief on Water and Agriculture in the Green Economy. UNW-DPAC, 2011, Oct 9, 2013 World Bank announcement on Poverty Eradication Goals
Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
intervention
challenge
Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
“What kind of interventions will change the ecosystem behavior?”
Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
In all it’s messiness
Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
OVER-ARCHING QUESTIONS AND ISSUES
Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
OVER-ARCHING QUESTIONS AND ISSUES How do we make SIGNIFICANT reductions in energy usage and GHGs?
Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
OVER-ARCHING QUESTIONS AND ISSUES How do we make SIGNIFICANT reductions in energy usage and GHGs? How do we make it financially viable? Revenue positive?
Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
OVER-ARCHING QUESTIONS AND ISSUES How do we make SIGNIFICANT reductions in energy usage and GHGs? How do we make it financially viable? Revenue positive? How do we create a business ecosystem when a KWH is so cheap?
Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
OVER-ARCHING QUESTIONS AND ISSUES How How How How
do we make SIGNIFICANT reductions in energy usage and GHGs? do we make it financially viable? Revenue positive? do we create a business ecosystem when a KWH is so cheap? to get the plans past our internal organizational and decision systems?
Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
OVER-ARCHING QUESTIONS AND ISSUES How How How How How
do we make SIGNIFICANT reductions in energy usage and GHGs? do we make it financially viable? Revenue positive? do we create a business ecosystem when a KWH is so cheap? to get the plans past our internal organizational and decision systems? do we diffuse the enabling technologies at scale?
Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
OVER-ARCHING QUESTIONS AND ISSUES How do we make SIGNIFICANT reductions in energy usage and GHGs? How do we make it financially viable? Revenue positive? How do we create a business ecosystem when a KWH is so cheap? How to get the plans past our internal organizational and decision systems? How do we diffuse the enabling technologies at scale? Getting people to save energy is harder than getting them to floss their teeth!
Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
OVER-ARCHING QUESTIONS AND ISSUES How do we make SIGNIFICANT reductions in energy usage and GHGs? How do we make it financially viable? Revenue positive? How do we create a business ecosystem when a KWH is so cheap? How to get the plans past our internal organizational and decision systems? How do we diffuse the enabling technologies at scale? Getting people to save energy is harder than getting them to floss their teeth! Death by a thousand cuts
Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
OVER-ARCHING QUESTIONS AND ISSUES How do we make SIGNIFICANT reductions in energy usage and GHGs? How do we make it financially viable? Revenue positive? How do we create a business ecosystem when a KWH is so cheap? How to get the plans past our internal organizational and decision systems? How do we diffuse the enabling technologies at scale? Getting people to save energy is harder than getting them to floss their teeth! Death by a thousand cuts When you want a toast, you want a toast!
Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
OVER-ARCHING QUESTIONS AND ISSUES How do we make SIGNIFICANT reductions in energy usage and GHGs? How do we make it financially viable? Revenue positive? How do we create a business ecosystem when a KWH is so cheap? How to get the plans past our internal organizational and decision systems? How do we diffuse the enabling technologies at scale? Getting people to save energy is harder than getting them to floss their teeth! Death by a thousand cuts When you want a toast, you want a toast! Okay to spend $2000 on a bigger TV but not on weatherizing one’s home
Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
OVER-ARCHING QUESTIONS AND ISSUES How do we make SIGNIFICANT reductions in energy usage and GHGs? How do we make it financially viable? Revenue positive? How do we create a business ecosystem when a KWH is so cheap? How to get the plans past our internal organizational and decision systems? How do we diffuse the enabling technologies at scale? Getting people to save energy is harder than getting them to floss their teeth! Death by a thousand cuts When you want a toast, you want a toast! Okay to spend $2000 on a bigger TV but not on weatherizing one’s home Mental models - recycling a soda can before boarding a flight Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
ENABLING TECHNOLOGIES Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
ENABLING TECHNOLOGIES
G IN Y AL SC TEG RA ST
Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
ENABLING TECHNOLOGIES
G IN Y AL SC TEG RA ST
BU
SIN MO ESS DE L
Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
ENABLING TECHNOLOGIES
G IN Y AL SC TEG RA ST
BU
SIN MO ESS DE L
ORG BEHAVIOR & DECISION SYSTEMS
Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
ENABLING TECHNOLOGIES
G IN Y AL SC TEG RA ST
BU
SIN MO ESS DE L
ORG BEHAVIOR & DECISION SYSTEMS & Y LIC RY O P ATO TE UL IMA G CL RE
Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
ENABLING TECHNOLOGIES
G IN Y AL SC TEG RA ST
BU
SIN MO ESS DE L
ORG BEHAVIOR & DECISION SYSTEMS
IN
VE S
TM
EN T
& Y LIC RY O P ATO TE UL IMA G CL RE
Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
ENABLING TECHNOLOGIES
G IN Y AL SC TEG RA ST
BU
SIN MO ESS DE L
ORG BEHAVIOR & DECISION SYSTEMS
IN
VE S
TM
EN T
& Y LIC RY O P ATO TE UL IMA G CL RE
GOAL Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
TH CH EORI AN ES GE OF
ENABLING TECHNOLOGIES
G IN Y AL SC TEG RA ST
BU
SIN MO ESS DE L
ORG BEHAVIOR & DECISION SYSTEMS
IN
VE S
TM
EN T
& Y LIC RY O P ATO TE UL IMA G CL RE
GOAL Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
SIN MO ESS DE L
TH CH EORI AN ES GE OF
ENABLING TECHNOLOGIES
G IN Y AL SC TEG RA ST
BU
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IN D AN R T RS VIO E D A UN BEH OF
ORG BEHAVIOR & DECISION SYSTEMS
IN
VE S
TM
EN T
& Y LIC RY O P ATO TE UL IMA G CL RE
GOAL Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
SIN MO ESS DE L
TH CH EORI AN ES GE OF
ENABLING TECHNOLOGIES
G IN Y AL SC TEG RA ST
BU
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IN D AN R T RS VIO E D A UN BEH OF
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GOAL Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
TH CH EORI AN ES GE OF
ENABLING TECHNOLOGIES
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BU
SIN MO ESS DE L
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IN D AN R T RS VIO E D A UN BEH OF
ORG BEHAVIOR & DECISION SYSTEMS & Y LIC RY O P ATO TE UL IMA G CL RE
TM VE S
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GOAL
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Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
TH CH EORI AN ES GE OF
ENABLING TECHNOLOGIES
G IN Y AL SC TEG RA ST
BU
SIN MO ESS DE L
ORG BEHAVIOR & DECISION SYSTEMS
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IN D AN R T RS VIO E D A UN BEH OF
INNOVATION PROCESS
& Y LIC RY O P ATO TE UL IMA G CL RE
TM VE S
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GOAL
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Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
TH CH EORI AN ES GE OF
ENABLING TECHNOLOGIES
G IN Y AL SC TEG RA ST
BU
SIN MO ESS DE L
ORG BEHAVIOR & DECISION SYSTEMS
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IN D AN R T RS VIO E D A UN BEH OF
INNOVATION PROCESS
& Y LIC RY O P ATO TE UL IMA G CL RE
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GOAL
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Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
TH CH EORI AN ES GE OF
ENABLING TECHNOLOGIES
G IN Y AL SC TEG RA ST
BU
SIN MO ESS DE L
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IN D AN R T RS VIO E D A UN BEH OF
OR
ORG BEHAVIOR & DECISION SYSTEMS
INNOVATION PROCESS
& Y LIC RY O P ATO TE UL IMA G CL RE
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Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
Behavior
Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
The cheapest barrel of oil is the one that we don’t use
Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
For most systems, behavior is a choke point
Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
For most systems, behavior is a choke point Behavior change allows demand-side interventions
Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
For most systems, behavior is a choke point Behavior change allows demand-side interventions Behavior change can scale faster than infrastructure Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES! IN AN ALTERED ECOSYSTEM! CLOUD!
PV! Sensors!
Feedback, ! Nudges,! Incentives!
Mobile! Device! Smart ! Controls!
E V
Appliances! Storage!
Smart Meter! ( + Smart Grid)!
Changing regulations, pricing structures, markets, competitive landscape, energy futures, sensibilities! tariffs, social norms, relationship with home-owners, and information landscapes!
Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
Upstream Interventions
Downstream Interventions
BannyBanerjee, Banerjee,Stanford StanfordUniversity University Banny
How do we change the energy consumption of a region?
How do we get people to use a different thermostat set-point
BannyBanerjee, Banerjee,Stanford StanfordUniversity University Banny
US Home Energy use breakdown # )3 & *3 " *3 ,3 ' -3
(Gardner & Stern)
.3
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# & $ -3
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Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
Upstream Interventions
Downstream Interventions
Target Profile
Contexts
Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
KWH CAPITA ENERGY SOURCE
INFRASTRUCTURE
BEHAVIOR PATTERNS
KWH CAPITA
PEAK KW
CURRENT ECOLOGY
MENTAL MODELS, FRAMES
STANDARDS
BUSINESS MODELS
PV/ ALT-SOURCE
INFRASTRUCTURE
PEAK KW
FUTURE ECOLOGY
STANDARDS
BIZ MODELS
BEHAVIOR
FRAMES
Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
KWH CAPITA ENERGY SOURCE
INFRASTRUCTURE
BEHAVIOR PATTERNS
KWH CAPITA PV/ ALT-SOURCE
PEAK KW
CURRENT ECOLOGY
MENTAL MODELS, FRAMES
STANDARDS
BUSINESS MODELS
f
INFRASTRUCTURE
PEAK KW
FUTURE ECOLOGY
STANDARDS
BIZ MODELS
BEHAVIOR
FRAMES
Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
Scaled Innovation KWH CAPITA ENERGY SOURCE
INFRASTRUCTURE
BEHAVIOR PATTERNS
KWH CAPITA
PEAK KW
CURRENT ECOLOGY
MENTAL MODELS, FRAMES
STANDARDS
BUSINESS MODELS
PV/ ALT-SOURCE
INFRASTRUCTURE
PEAK KW
FUTURE ECOLOGY
STANDARDS
BIZ MODELS
BEHAVIOR
FRAMES
Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
Scaled Innovation Behavioral, Technical & Business Determinants
KWH CAPITA ENERGY SOURCE
INFRASTRUCTURE
BEHAVIOR PATTERNS
KWH CAPITA
PEAK KW
CURRENT ECOLOGY
MENTAL MODELS, FRAMES
STANDARDS
BUSINESS MODELS
PV/ ALT-SOURCE
INFRASTRUCTURE
PEAK KW
FUTURE ECOLOGY
STANDARDS
BIZ MODELS
BEHAVIOR
FRAMES
Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
Scaled Innovation Behavioral, Technical & Business Determinants
KWH CAPITA ENERGY SOURCE
INFRASTRUCTURE
BEHAVIOR PATTERNS
KWH CAPITA PV/ ALT-SOURCE
PEAK KW
CURRENT ECOLOGY
MENTAL MODELS, FRAMES
STANDARDS
BUSINESS MODELS
Strategic Framing Scaled Concepts
INFRASTRUCTURE
PEAK KW
FUTURE ECOLOGY
STANDARDS
BIZ MODELS
BEHAVIOR
FRAMES
Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
Scaled Innovation Behavioral, Technical & Business Determinants
KWH CAPITA ENERGY SOURCE
INFRASTRUCTURE
BEHAVIOR PATTERNS
KWH CAPITA PV/ ALT-SOURCE
PEAK KW
CURRENT ECOLOGY
MENTAL MODELS, FRAMES
STANDARDS
Strategic Framing Scaled Concepts
BUSINESS MODELS
INFRASTRUCTURE
PEAK KW
FUTURE ECOLOGY
BIZ MODELS
BEHAVIOR
Strategic Roadmaps Implementation & Scaling
STANDARDS
FRAMES
Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
Scaled Innovation Behavioral, Technical & Business Determinants
Strategic Framing Scaled Concepts
Strategic Roadmaps Implementation & Scaling
Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
Scaled Innovation Behavioral, Technical & Business Determinants
Behavioral, Technological DRIVERS Extrinsic factors: SITUATIONAL CONSTRAINTS Ecosystem Analysis: STAKEHOLDER RELATIONSHIPS
Strategic Framing Scaled Concepts
Strategic Roadmaps Implementation & Scaling
Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
Scaled Innovation Behavioral, Technical & Business Determinants
Behavioral, Technological DRIVERS Extrinsic factors: SITUATIONAL CONSTRAINTS Ecosystem Analysis: STAKEHOLDER RELATIONSHIPS STRATEGIC PATHWAYS & PLATFORMS
Strategic Framing Scaled Concepts
Design of SOLUTIONS, SERVICES, BIZ MODELS
SCALING and DIFFUSION STRATEGY Strategic Roadmaps Implementation & Scaling
Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
Scaled Innovation Behavioral, Technical & Business Determinants
Behavioral, Technological DRIVERS Extrinsic factors: SITUATIONAL CONSTRAINTS Ecosystem Analysis: STAKEHOLDER RELATIONSHIPS STRATEGIC PATHWAYS & PLATFORMS
Strategic Framing Scaled Concepts
Design of SOLUTIONS, SERVICES, BIZ MODELS
SCALING and DIFFUSION STRATEGY Strategic Roadmaps Implementation & Scaling
Organizational & Decision Processes Strategic Partnerships
Rapid Pilots and Implementation rollouts
Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
The innovation process is like an accordion
Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
Cognitive intervention Piggyback intervention Stealth intervention Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
KWH Potential
High
Low Low
High
Behavior
Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
KWH Potential
High
Low Low
High
Behavior
Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
KWH Potential
High
Vs Low Low
High
Behavior
High Conversion of Small Segment
Low Conversion of Larger Segment
Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
Prospect Theory Losses are felt twice as much as equivalent gains.
(Kahneman and Tversky 1974) Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
Hyperbolic Discounting
Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
PRINCIPLES
Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
PRINCIPLES Understand the local cultural, behavioral and motivational frames
Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
PRINCIPLES Understand the local cultural, behavioral and motivational frames Parse the qualitative insights through behavioral lenses
Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
PRINCIPLES Understand the local cultural, behavioral and motivational frames Parse the qualitative insights through behavioral lenses Business models and organizational behavior can ultimately limit success
Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
PRINCIPLES Understand the local cultural, behavioral and motivational frames Parse the qualitative insights through behavioral lenses Business models and organizational behavior can ultimately limit success Consider hybrid behavioral-techno-business strategies
Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
PRINCIPLES Understand the local cultural, behavioral and motivational frames Parse the qualitative insights through behavioral lenses Business models and organizational behavior can ultimately limit success Consider hybrid behavioral-techno-business strategies Upstream platforms that enable multiple downstream interventions
Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
PRINCIPLES Understand the local cultural, behavioral and motivational frames Parse the qualitative insights through behavioral lenses Business models and organizational behavior can ultimately limit success Consider hybrid behavioral-techno-business strategies Upstream platforms that enable multiple downstream interventions When known solutions do not exist, innovate!
Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
PRINCIPLES Understand the local cultural, behavioral and motivational frames Parse the qualitative insights through behavioral lenses Business models and organizational behavior can ultimately limit success Consider hybrid behavioral-techno-business strategies Upstream platforms that enable multiple downstream interventions When known solutions do not exist, innovate! Allow matches between motivational frames and solution frames
Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
PRINCIPLES Understand the local cultural, behavioral and motivational frames Parse the qualitative insights through behavioral lenses Business models and organizational behavior can ultimately limit success Consider hybrid behavioral-techno-business strategies Upstream platforms that enable multiple downstream interventions When known solutions do not exist, innovate! Allow matches between motivational frames and solution frames If you don’t build in scale, it will be harder to build it in later
Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
QUESTIONS
Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
QUESTIONS Is the segmentation based on motivation, behaviors, and identity?
Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
QUESTIONS Is the segmentation based on motivation, behaviors, and identity? Is it a Pull or Push intervention?
Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
QUESTIONS Is the segmentation based on motivation, behaviors, and identity? Is it a Pull or Push intervention? Will it self propel or do you have to scale distribution?
Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
QUESTIONS Is the segmentation based on motivation, behaviors, and identity? Is it a Pull or Push intervention? Will it self propel or do you have to scale distribution? What is the driving motivation for the user?
Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
QUESTIONS Is the segmentation based on motivation, behaviors, and identity? Is it a Pull or Push intervention? Will it self propel or do you have to scale distribution? What is the driving motivation for the user? Is it a Cognitive, Piggyback, or Stealth intervention?
Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
QUESTIONS Is the segmentation based on motivation, behaviors, and identity? Is it a Pull or Push intervention? Will it self propel or do you have to scale distribution? What is the driving motivation for the user? Is it a Cognitive, Piggyback, or Stealth intervention? Is it a Downstream intervention or a Upstream Intervention?
Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
QUESTIONS Is the segmentation based on motivation, behaviors, and identity? Is it a Pull or Push intervention? Will it self propel or do you have to scale distribution? What is the driving motivation for the user? Is it a Cognitive, Piggyback, or Stealth intervention? Is it a Downstream intervention or a Upstream Intervention? Is it a Single Agency play or Multi-Agency requiring strategic partnerships?
Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
QUESTIONS Is the segmentation based on motivation, behaviors, and identity? Is it a Pull or Push intervention? Will it self propel or do you have to scale distribution? What is the driving motivation for the user? Is it a Cognitive, Piggyback, or Stealth intervention? Is it a Downstream intervention or a Upstream Intervention? Is it a Single Agency play or Multi-Agency requiring strategic partnerships? Is there a strategy for rapid diffusion of enabling technology?
Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
QUESTIONS Is the segmentation based on motivation, behaviors, and identity? Is it a Pull or Push intervention? Will it self propel or do you have to scale distribution? What is the driving motivation for the user? Is it a Cognitive, Piggyback, or Stealth intervention? Is it a Downstream intervention or a Upstream Intervention? Is it a Single Agency play or Multi-Agency requiring strategic partnerships? Is there a strategy for rapid diffusion of enabling technology? Does it piggyback on infrastructure that has already scaled?
Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
QUESTIONS Is the segmentation based on motivation, behaviors, and identity? Is it a Pull or Push intervention? Will it self propel or do you have to scale distribution? What is the driving motivation for the user? Is it a Cognitive, Piggyback, or Stealth intervention? Is it a Downstream intervention or a Upstream Intervention? Is it a Single Agency play or Multi-Agency requiring strategic partnerships? Is there a strategy for rapid diffusion of enabling technology? Does it piggyback on infrastructure that has already scaled? Does this lead to a new culture and choice architecture? Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
Potency of Intervention
Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
Potency of Intervention
*
Scale of Implementation
Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
Potency of Intervention
* Time to*Impact
Scale of Implementation
Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
Potency of Intervention
* Time to*Impact Degree of*Integration
Scale of Implementation
Banny Banerjee, Stanford University
Thank you
