The

NEBI YEARBOOK 2 0 00 North Europea n and Baltic Sea Integration

Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg GmbH

The

NEBI Y E A R B O OK 2000 North European and Baltic Sea Integration General Editors: Lars Hedegaar d and Bjarne Lindströ m Co-editors: Pertti Joenniem i Anders Östhol Karin Pesche l Carl-Einar Stälvant

Springer

N O RD REGIO Nordi c Centr e for Spatia l Developmen t

Lars Hedegaard Nordregio Box 1658 S-11186 Stockholm Bjarne Lindström Department of Statistics and Economic Research in Aland Box 60 FIN-22101 Mariehamn Aland Islands

I S B N 978-3-642-63541-0 I S B N 978-3-642-58337-7 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-58337-7 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Die Deutsche Bibliothek - CIP-Einheitsaufnahme The NEBI Yearbook: North European and Baltic Sea Integration / Nordregio, Nordic Centre for Spatial Development. - 1998 - . - Berlin; Heidelberg; New York; Barcelona; Hong Kong; London; Milan; Paris; Singapore; Tokyo: Springer, 1998 Erscheint jährlich. - Bibliographische Deskription nach 2000 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilm or in any other way, and storage in data banks. Duplication of this publication or parts thereof is permitted only under the provisions of the German Copyright Law of September 9, 1965, in its current version, and permission for use must always be obtained from Springer-Verlag. Violations are liable for prosecution under the German Copyright Law.

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2000 Originally published by Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg New York 2000 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2000 The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. SPIN 10734601

43/2202-5 4 3 2 1 0 - Printed on acid-free paper

The computer-enhanced photo on the cover shows six bright stars in Cassiopeia and - in the top left-hand corner - the Polar Star. With its characteristic W-shape, Cassiopeia is among the most easily identifiable constellations in the NEBI area's night sky. Its name comes from Quassio-peaer, meaning Rose-Coloured Face in Phoenician and being the name of a queen who reigned over a world far from Greece. Ptolemy attributed to Cassiopeia the qualities of Saturn and Venus, meaning power, respect and command. When the combination was negative, however, it generated exaggerated pride and great presumption. Among countless depictions throughout the centuries is the above from Bayer's Cassiopeia (1603). TYcho's Nova is the famous exploding star discovered by the Danish astronomer Tycho Brahe on 11 November 1572 and described in his book De nova stella (1573). The new star quickly dimmed, and in March 1574 it could no longer be seen. The Editors wish to acknowledge the kind assistance provided by the Tycho Brahe Planetarium, Copenhagen.

Cover design: Rita Baving, Copenhagen

List of Partners

The publication of The NEBI Yearbook 2000 has been made possible by generous grants from the following Partners: Danish Institute ofInternational Affairs (DUPI), Copenhagen The Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Finland The Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Norway The Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Sweden The Government of Aland, Mariehamn Centre for Regional Science (CERUM), Umea Conference of Peripheral Maritime Regions of Europe (CPMR) - Baltic Sea Commission, Stockholm Copenhagen Peace Research Institute (COPRI) Federation of County Councils, Stockholm Institute for East-West Trade, Turku The Kvarken Co-operation, Vasa The Malardal Council, Stockholm Nordic Centre for Spatial Development (Nordregio), Stockholm Ostsee-Akademie, Travemiinde Schleswig-Holstein Institute for Peace Research (SHIP), Kiel The Skargard Co-operation, Mariehamn Swedish Institute for Regional Research (SIR), Ostersund University of Joensuu

Editorial Advisory Board

Thorvald Stoltenberg, President, Norwegian Red Cross, Oslo, Chairman of the Editorial Advisory Board Hallgeir Aalbu, Nordic Centre for Spatial Development (Nordregio) Dag Briseid, The Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Norway Imants Gross, The Malardal Council Goran Hallin, Swedish Institute for Regional Research (SIR) Jaakko Iloniemi, Centre for Finnish Business and Policy Studies Jorg Hackmann, Ostsee-Akademie Bjorn Kinberg, Conference of Peripheral Maritime Regions of Europe (CPMR) - Baltic Sea Commission Urpo Kivikari, Institute for East-West Trade Hannu Mantyvaara, The Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Finland Hans Mouritzen, Danish Institute ofInternational Affairs (DUPI) Mats Nystrom, The Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Sweden Karl-Henrik Strom, Federation of County Councils Perttu Vartiainen, University of Joensuu Christian Wellmann, Schleswig-Holstein Institute for Peace Research (SHIP) Lars Westin, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM) Hahn Wiberg, Copenhagen Peace Research Institute (COPRI) Bo. Wijkmark, The Government of Aland, The Kvarken Co-operation and The Skargard Co-operation

Foreword Thorvald Stoltenberg President ofthe Norwegian Red Cross Chairman ofthe Editorial Advisory Board

The 2000 edition of the NEBI Yearbook goes to press a few weeks before the opening of the fIxed 0resund Link between Copenhagen and Malmo, and the celebrations of this magnifIcent construction have already begun. Way back in the nineteenth century visionaries started dreaming of this connection between lands that used to belong together but had been torn apart by the visitations of the modern era: fanaticism, war, genocide and competing nationalisms. To be sure, the 0resund Link will have major economic impacts in both halves of the Zealand-Skane 0resund region, and the benefIcial consequences can already be detected in the shape of rising investments and falling unemployment in both the Greater Copenhagen and the Malmo-Lund areas. But to understand the true measure of the Link, one has to consider its political and even symbolic implications. The bridge is nothing less than the physical embodiment of a most welcome reversal of historical trends towards division, isolation and strife that have for too long afflicted not only Denmark and Sweden bur influenced relations all around the Baltic Sea and in the territories adjacent to the Barents Sea in the far north - in short the entire NEBI area. Of course the mending of relations in the area started long ago with the growing understanding between the Nordic countries in the nineteenth century, which accelerated to become institutionalised Nordic co-operation after World War II. An even bigger boost to NEB I-wide rapprochement was provided by the demise of the former Soviet Empire following the collapse of the Berlin Wall in 1989, which in turn paved the way for the emergence of pan-Baltic and pan-Barents institutions. Almost ten years after the last hurrah of the old Soviet order, i.e. the aborted coup in Moscow in August 1991, one cannot help reflecting on how much could have gone wrong and what a magnifIcent success we have been fortunate enough to experience. As Peter van Ham - an observer with roots outside the NEBI area - points out in this volume, 'Where Kosovo and the Balkans have become metaphors for ethnic conflict and political chaos, Europe's northeast is often singled our as a region

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Foreword

which has dealt with disputes and looming conflicts in an exemplary way. Calling for the Nordicisation of the Balkans would imply learning lessons from Norway's separation from Sweden without bloodshed, as did Iceland from Denmark. It would mean learning from the civilised treatment of the many (mainly Russian, or Russian-speaking) minorities in the Baltic States as the basis for goodneighbourly relations. It would also mean overcoming historical hostilities, and, like Finland, reconciling oneself with the separation from the territories in Karelia, which was the site of its national myths.' That is the kind of praise which northern and northeastern Europeans would hesitate to heap on themselves, but which is nevertheless a characterisation of a number of recent accomplishments in the NEBI area that one is happy to accept. It would have been unreasonable to expect the deep divisions of the northern and northeastern European space to have been smoothed over in the course of the few years that have elapsed since the breakdown of communism. Almost any indicator normally used to describe economic, political, social and cultural reality points to the fact that the path to true societal cohesion in this vast area will be long and arduous. The present volume is full of examples of problems that have not been solved. What matters, however, is the fact that the countries and regions of the NEBI area have entered the path of reconciliation and crossborder integration and that there is little disagreement as to where it should lead - despite reversals and false starts. Unless serious mistakes are made - and why should they be? - we may yet turn the NEB! area into a European test case of how to overcome political and economic division.

Contents

List of Partners ........................................ .. . . . . . . . . . . Editorial Advisory Board .......................................... Foreword ......................................................... Thorvald Stoltenberg 1. Cross-border Integration in the 0resund Region: A NEBI Showcase? Lars Hedegaard and Bjarne Lindstrom

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PART I: ECONOMIC INTEGRATION Edited by Karin Peschel 2. Migration Potential and Migration Effects after EU Enlargement Johannes Brocker 3. Unemployment, Migration and the Effects of EU Membership on the Polish Labour Market ..................................... Zenon Wisniewski 4. Immigration to Scandinavia: Good or Bad for the Nordic Economies? Thomas Straubhaar 5. Approaching a Single Labour Market: Emerging Migration Patterns in the Baltic Sea Area ......................................... Mats Johansson and Lars OlafPersson 6. Cross-border Commuting and Integration Michael Schack

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Contents

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PART II: SPATIAL PLANNING AND THE ENVIRONMENT

Edited by Carl-Einar Stalvant

7. The Politics of Sustainability in the European Arctic

117

Monica Tennberg 8. Underwriting the Environment: Development Bank Influence in the Barents Region ...............................................

127

Steven G. Sawhill 9. Environmental Aid to Poland and Win-Win Strategies

145

Mikael Sandberg 10. The Regional Economic Effects of the Ferner Belt Link for the Western Baltic Area ...............................................

163

Bjarne Madsen and Chris Jensen-Butler 11. Russia in the Baltic Sea Roundwood Trade

185

Anna-Liisa Myllynen and Olli Saastamoinen

PART III: TRANSBORDER REGIONAL CO-OPERATION

Edited by Anders Osthol 12. Transborder Co-operation: An Assessment

201

Malcolm Anderson 13. The European Union and the Baltic Sea Region: Problems and Prospects for Stability .........................................

217

Michael Davis 14. The Union's Institutional Reform and Enlargement

227

Thomas Konig and Thomas Brauninger 15. State to Region: Nordic Co-operation and the Winds of Change ..

243

Iver B. Neumann 16. Regional Lobbying in Brussels

Carl Magnus Hoog

251

Contents

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PART IV: POLITICAL INTEGRATION, TERRITORIAL GOVERNANCE AND SECURITY Edited by Pertti Joenniemi 17. Building Military Stability in the Baltic Sea Region Zdzislaw Lachowski

259

18. US Policy Toward Northern Europe: Political and Security Aspects Peter van Ham

275

19. Security Development in the Barents Region Arto Nokkala

289

20. The Process of Russian Decentralisation: Baltic Policy Implications Graeme P. Herd

299

2l. Security Aspects of the EU's Northern Dimension Clive Archer

315

NORTH EUROPEAN AND BALTIC STATISTICS Compiled by Juri Kol4 Statistics Sweden

329

List of Figures .................................................... List of Tables ..................................................... Index ............................................................ About the Authors and Editors .....................................

467 469 471 483