Climate change and the Baltic Sea How will the climate change transform ecosystem services in the Baltic Sea?
Riku Lumiaro
Markku Viitasalo Finnish Environment Institute - Marine Research Center Educators for the Baltic Sea –seminar 8.9.2009
M. Viitasalo, SYKE
Costanza et al. 1997: The value of the world’s ecosystem services and natural capital. -Nature 387: 253-260.
”For the entire biosphere, the value is... an average of USD 33 1012 per year. Global GNP is USD 18 1012 per year.”
M. Viitasalo, SYKE
Costanza et al. 1997: Global map of the value of ecosystem services
100
1000
USD ha-1 year-1
10000
M. Viitasalo, SYKE
Costanza et al. 1997: Global map of the value of ecosystem services
100
1000
10000
USD ha-1 year-1
Ecosystem services of the Baltic Sea (sensu Costanza et al.): Gas regulation Climate regulation Nutrient cycling Waste treatment
Biological control Habitat/refugia Food production
Genetic resources Recreation Cultural
M. Viitasalo, SYKE
Costanza et al. 1997: Global map of the value of ecosystem services
100
1000
10000
USD ha-1 year-1
Ecosystem services of the Baltic Sea (sensu Costanza et al.): Gas regulation Climate regulation Nutrient cycling Waste treatment
Biological control Habitat/refugia Food production
Genetic resources Recreation Cultural
M. Viitasalo, SYKE
Can the climate induce a change in ecosystem (services) in the sea?
Art: Juha Flinkman
M. Viitasalo, SYKE
A new record of seagulls in Utö (Archipelago Sea): 21.500 common gulls - Helsingin Sanomat 8.2.2008
M. Viitasalo, SYKE
”The peculiarities of the Archipelago Sea perhaps induced by winds” Margus Ellermaa, Birdlife (Helsingin Sanomat 10.2.2008)
M. Viitasalo, SYKE
The North Sea in 1955-87 : ”Parallel long-term trends across four trophic levels and weather” W-winds
phytoplankton
pikkuk. pesuekoko
Aebischer et al. 1990 -Nature 347: 753 - 755
zooplankton
M. Viitasalo, SYKE
The North Sea in 1955-87 : ”Parallel long-term trends across four trophic levels and weather” W-winds
phytoplankton
herring
pikkuk. pesuekoko
Aebischer et al. 1990 -Nature 347: 753 - 755
zooplankton
M. Viitasalo, SYKE
The North Sea in 1955-87 : ”Parallel long-term trends across four trophic levels and weather” W-winds
phytoplankton
herring
zooplankton
kittiwake laydate
kittiwake chicks
Aebischer et al. 1990 -Nature 347: 753 - 755
M. Viitasalo, SYKE
Baltic Sea: Herring get smaller and salmon fewer in the Gulf of Finland 7.0
herring w-a-a
60 6.8 50
6.6
salinity
200
150
100
30
salmon landings (1000 tn)
herring WAA (grams)
salinity (psu)
6.2
5.8
salmon catches
40
6.4
6.0
250
50 20 0 10 1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
Year
1990
1995
2000
Data: sal. and herring w-a-a: FIMR, Rönkkönen et al. 2004; salmon catches: ICES CM 2004/ACFM:23
M. Viitasalo, SYKE
Baltic Sea: Common guillemot chicks lose weight in Stora Karlsö (Gotland)
Henrik Österblom 2006: Complexity and change in a simple food web: Studies in the Baltic Sea. –Ph.D. thesis, Univ. Stockholm
M. Viitasalo, SYKE
Yes! Climate induced ecosystem changes are taking place in the Baltic Sea! Two basic mechanisms 1. Warming up 2. Increase of rainfall
M. Viitasalo, SYKE
Mechanism 1: The Baltic Sea warms up Air temperature increases
Water temperature
Stratification
Ice cover Nutrient conditions
Warm water species increase
Plankton community changes
M. Viitasalo, SYKE
Mechanism 2: Freshwater runoff to the Baltic increases Runoff increases Nutrient flow increases
Salinity decreases
Saline pulses decrease
Stratification gets stronger(?) Eutrophication gets worse
Pelagic communities change
Oxygen conditions get worse
Species geographic limits shift
Benthic communities change
M. Viitasalo, SYKE
How does this affect me?
Photo: Seppo Keränen
M. Viitasalo, SYKE
Example 1: Geographic limits of species change
Limnocalanus
Neritic copepods
Aurelia
mackerel Belone
”Oceanization” of the Baltic Sea 1930s-1950s Segerstråle 1952, 1969 Lindqvist 1959
Cyanea Fritillaria Oithona cod, flatfish
M. Viitasalo, SYKE
Example 2: Non-indigenous species increase Photos: Ari Laine
Miljoonaa tonnia
2000 ships on the Baltic!
Organisms from a ballast tank
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Example 3: Effects of harmful substances get worse? Physiological functions speed up Resistance to environmental stress weakens?
Acetylcholinesterase (AChE)
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Example 4: Herrings get smaller 10 High growth rate 1975-80
9
)k
8
salinity
7 6 5 4
Slope of the growth rate (
Low growth rate 1986-93
3 2 1960
1965
1970
1975
Rönkkönen et al. 2004, CJFAS 61: 219-229
1980
1985
1990
1995
Why me?
Juha Flinkman
Example 5: Benthic communities change 1928
Sven G. Segerstråle 1928
2000
M. Viitasalo, SYKE
Example 5: Benthic communities change 1928
Sven G. Segerstråle 1928
2000
M. Viitasalo, SYKE
M. Viitasalo, SYKE
How do benthic animals affect the benthos?
A mysid shrimp in an aquarium Viitasalo & Viitasalo 2004 - MEPS 281: 155-163
M. Viitasalo, SYKE
Example 6: Blue-green algal blooms increase 10.7.2005
Kaitala & Stutz, FIMR
Example 7: Eutrophication gets worse Blue green algal blooms
Eutrophied bays
Drifting algal mats
Filamentous algae
T. Lindholm
M. Viitasalo, SYKE
Example 7: Eutrophication gets worse Or does it? Peak = high bacterial production, low primary production!
Johan Wikner & Agneta Andersson, Umeå University, Sweden, unpublished results FROM GULF OF BOTHNIA
Why? Because organic carbon (in river water) is ”good food” for bacteria!
M. Viitasalo, SYKE
Summary Abiotic factors • Temperature increases • Salinity decreases • Nutrient runoff increases • Stratification…? • Oxygen conditions…? • Internal loading of nutrients…?
Biota • • • • •
Geographic limits shift Plankton community changes Sprat and herring stay thin Less valuable fish increase Non-indigenous species increase • Blue green algae increase • …
M. Viitasalo, SYKE
Conclusions Climate change 1. Worsens eutrophication (but effects vary from basin to basin) 2. Alters diversity and ecosystem functioning 3. Influences ecosystem services:
Waste treatment capacity of the sea Biological control by keystone species Habitats/refugia Food production Genetic resources Recreational and cultural values
M. Viitasalo, SYKE
Conclusions Climate change needs to be taken into account in ecosystem-based management and spatial planning of the Baltic Sea
M. Viitasalo, SYKE
Remember: Baltic Sea is not dead, yet! The young of today are the decision-makers of tomorrow!
Fejan, Stockholm archipelago 17.06.2005 M. Viitasalo
