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WDP78 November 1990
World Bank Discussion Papers
The GreenhouseEffect Implicationsfor Economic Development
Erik Arrhenius Thomas W. Waltz
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78
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World Bank Discussion Papers
The GreenhouseEffect Implicationsfor Economic Development
Erik Arrhenius Thomas W. Waltz
The World Bank Washington, D.C.
Copyright C 1990 The World Bank 1818 H Street, N.W Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A. All rights reserved Manufactured in the United States of America First printing April 1990 Second printing November 1990 Discussion Papers are not formal publications of the World Bank. They present preliminary and unpolished results of country analysis or research that is circulated to encourage discussion and comment; citation and the use of such a paper should take account of its provisional character. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the author(s) and should not be attributed in any manner to the World Bank, to its affiliated organizations, or to members of its Board of Executive Directors or the countries they represent. Any maps that accompany the text have been prepared solely for the convenience of readers; the designations and presentation of material in them do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the World Bank, its affiliates, or its Board or mernber countries concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city, or area or of the authorities thereof or concerning the delimitation of its boundaries or its national affiliation. Because of the informality and to present the results of research with the least possible delay, the typescript has not been prepared in accordance with the procedures appropriate to formal printed texts, and the World Bank accepts no responsibility for errors. The material in this publication is copyrighted. Requests for permission to reproduce portions of it should be sent to Director, Publications Department, at the address shown in the copyright notice above. The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally give permission promptly and, when the reproduction is for noncommercial purposes, without asking a fee. Permission to photocopy portions for classroom use is not required, though notification of such use having been made will be appreciated. The complete backlist of publications from the World Bank is shown in the annual Index of Publications, which contains an alphabetical title list and indexes of subjects, authors, and countries and regions; it is of value principally to libraries and institutional purchasers. The latest edition is available free of charge from Publications Sales Unit, Department F, The World Bank, 1818 H Street, N.W, Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A., or from Publications, The World Bank, 66, avenue d'Ilna, 75116 Paris, France. Erik Arrhenius is principal adviser in science and technology in the Office of the Vice President for Sector Policy and Research; Thomas W. Waltz is a consultant to this unit of the World Bank. ISSN 0259-21OX Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication
Data
Arrhenius, Erik, 1931The greenhouse effect : implications for economic tBevelopment/ Erik Arrhenius, Thomas W. Waltz. p. cm. -- (World Bank discusslon papers ; 78) Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 0-8213-1520-X 1. Economic development--Environmental aspects. 2. Greenhouse effect, Atmospheric. 3. Climatic changes. I. Waltz, Thomas W., 1940. II. Title. III. Series. HD75.6.A77 1990 338.9--dc2O 90-12308 CIP
Preface
This paper presents a scientific perspective on the global climate change issue and establishes a comprehensive framework for efficient response to the implications for natural resource conservation and economic development. It has benefitted from extensive comment and review within the international scientific community, as well as within the World Bank. It comprises an extensive summary and critique, from a development viewpoint, of the sometimes conflicting scientific literature and opinion on the greenhouse effect, the related theoretical and empirical evidence, and prospects for global climate change. Finally, it presents a set of conclusions which are worthy of serious consideration by everyone concerned with the enlightened stewardship of our global environment.
E. A. Arrhenius
Hii
La question des temperatures terrestres, l'une plus importantes et des plus difficiles de toute la philosophie naturelle, se compose d'elements assez divers qui doivent etre consideres sous un point de vue general.
Jean-Baptiste Fourier 1827
iv
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page I.
EXECUTIVE SIJMMARY .............................
I
II.
THE THREAT OF CLIMATE CHANGE .....................
2
A. Climate and the Greenhouse Effect
2
......................
B. Industrial Contributions to the Greenhouse Gas Burden
...
........
3
C. Patterns of Change in Climatic Risk ......................
7
III. WHY THE DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY SHOULD BE CONCERNED ...................................
9
IV. OPPORTUNITIES IN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT A. Mitigation of Climatic Risks
..........
.
.
.
10 10
(a) Industry and Energy ..........................
11
(b) Carbon Dioxide Options .......................
11
(c) Chlorofluorocarbon Options .....................
13
(d) Agriculture and Rural Development .................
13
B. Adjusting to Climatic Risk
.
.
(a) Industry and Energy .......................... (b) Infrastructure and Urban Development
V.
...
.
14 14
...............
15
(c) Agricultural and Rural Development .................
15
(d) Population and Human Resources ..................
16
CONCLUSIONS ..................................
VI. BIBLIOGRAPHY .................................
V
16 17
I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY It has been known since late in the last century that an anthropogenic (manmade) warming of the earth's climate system was possible due to the atmospheric emissions and radiative properties of industrial and agricultural "greenhouse gases". Indeed, the theory of the "greenhouse effect" was conceived over a century ago by the French mathematician, J-B. Fourier (Fourier, 1827), and given support by Tyndall's studies (Tyndall, 1861) on the absorption of heat by gases. The first analysis of a possible climate change caused by industrial emissions of radiatively active gases was published in 1896, by the Swedish physical chemist, Svante Arrhenius, who calculated that there would be a global warming of 3.2-4.0 degrees Celsius from a doubling of the earth's atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, a level which could be attained sometime in the next century (Arrhenius, 1896). Since then, the theory of the greenhouse effect has passed from conception, to hypothesis, to the consensus view that it is both real and the probable driving force for global climate change in our day (Jaeger, et al., 1988). The greenhouse effect is, in fact, normal to earth and essential to life. Without it, the earth would be more than 30 degrees Celsius (60 degrees Fahrenheit) cooler, and life as we know it would not exist. It is the additional greenhouse effect-underway since the industrial revolution began-that poses the threat of climate change to society. An inevitable legacy of the fossil fuel based industrial era will be future climate changes. The extent and character of such changes in the future, however, could be determined essentially by human choices. The prospect of climate change is an issue which by its nature is potentially divisive. While a certain caution may be in the long term interest of us all, no single nation or region is likely to have an interest in bearing by itself possible mitigation and adjustment costs related to global warming. Therefore, international collaboration of some kind will be essential. Nations and regions have conflicting interests in resolving the situation. The political obstacles to solid global collaboration on controlling greenhouse emissions in the present world are, therefore, substantial. The creation of an effective international rationing regime for curtailing greenhouse gas emissions would require considerable time. In the meantime, there exist many other opportunities for collaboration. The development community needs to outline a policy and research program for sustainable economic development which addresses the implications of possible climate effects of greenhouse gases. The greatest opportunities lie in the energy sector, which should be the primary focus of attention, notwithstanding that energy efficiency options are substantial in sectors such as agriculture and urban systems. Indeed, the opportunities for public and private energy efficiency gains are compelling and suggest that the threat of
2
THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT:
global warming can be reduced primarily by concentrating present efforts on improving the energy efficiency of the global economy.
II. THE THREAT OF CLIMATE CHANGE A.
Climate and the Greenhouse Effect
The emission of greenhouse gases is expected to induce an increase in the global mean temperature which, in terms of either magnitude or rate of change, would be unprecedented in mankind's entire history on earth. Present day global climate models predict a warming of 1.5 degrees to 4.5 degrees Celsius for a C02 doubling within the next century. In contrast, the earth's temperature has risen only 0.5-0.7 degrees Celsius in the last century, and probably has not varied more than 1-2 degrees Celsius in the last ten thousand years, or 6-7 degrees Celsius in the last million years. The development of the human social and cultural infrastructure over the last 7,000 years has taken place entirely within an average global climate neither I degree warmer nor colder than the climate of today (NAS, 1983). Climate may be defined as the statistical description of the mean state of the atmosphere as well as the variability of the atmosphere, ocean, ice and land surface over a period of time. Consequently, climate is conventionally described in terms of historic means, variances, and probabilities (Rosenberg, 1986). Different climates characterize each place and season on earth and have been accurately measured instrumentally in some locations for over a century. The climatic events occurring before routine instrumental measurement became established 100 years ago, and their relation to biogeochemical changes is by no means unknown. Data obtained from specific climate-related patterns in biological and mineral materials, recovered at time-related positions in sediments and icecores have been the major tools for measuring long-term climate conditions. These data are comparable to "fingerprints" from ecosystems specific for different climatic conditions and can be interpreted as reasonably accurate descriptions of prehistoric climate variations. They are species-specific pollen; calcareous and siliceous structures from plants and microscopic animals; climate-specific tree-ring patterns; crystal lattice structures in minerals reflecting time of heat exposure; composition of air inclusions in glacial ice cores; and climate-induced changes in isotope distributions (Laut and Fenger, 1989). Global climate warming is largely the result of the capacity of certain long-lived industrially and agriculturally generated atmospheric trace gases -mainly carbon dioxide (C02), chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), halons, methane (CH4), tropospheric (ground-level) ozone (03), and nitrous oxide (N20)-tO trap some of the radiant heat which the earth emits after receiving solar energy from the sun. Because this phenomenon is somewhat similar to the capacity of greenhouse glass enclosures to trap heat, it is commonly termed the "greenhouse effect". Anthropogenic (manmade) emissions of long-lived (having long atmospheric lifespans) radiatively active trace gases and their contributions to the greenhouse effect are
3
real, and are supported by physical evidence. The actual climatic impact of these gases has not yet been supported by scientific consensus. It is still not possible to say, for example, that the global warmningof 0.5-0.7 degrees Celsius which has been observed over land masses during the past century or so is a definitive result of the greenhouse effect. Although globally averaged air temperature data do indicate that six of the warmest years on record occurred during the 1980s, and some scientists have claimed statistical proof that the impact of the greenhouse effect is now being evidenced (Hansen, 1988), others still question the possibility of ever being able to affirmatively answer the question, "Is this the year the greenhouse effect began to bite?" (Maddox, 1988). Recent events are, however, illustrative of what could be expected if the greenhouse effect were presently underway. B.
Industrial Contributions to the Greenhouse Gas Burden
Greenhouse gases are accumulating rapidly and changing the chemical composition of the earth's atmosphere. Human activities are increasing greenhouse gas concentrations on a global basis, thus intensifying the greenhouse effect. The most important of these gases, in terms of its total cumulative contribution to the greenhouse effect, is carbon dioxide-a fundamental product of burning fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas)-that releases to the atmosphere carbon which had been buried in the earth for 100 million years. Next in importance as greenhouse gases are methane, chlorofluorocarbons, and nitrous oxide. Large sources of methane are the anaerobic (in the absence of oxygen) decay of organic matter such as agricultural (rice paddy and livestock) emissions and urban wastes. Other important sources of methane include leakage during the extraction and transport of fossil fuels, a fact that should be considered when evaluating the relative greenhouse contribution of different fossil fuels (Abrahamson, 1989). The level of methane in the atmosphere is influenced by the increase in its lifespan as a result of the emissions of carbon monoxide by incomplete combustion of carbon-based fuels in industry, households and transport. Large carbon monoxide emissions are also produced by the burning of savannahs and forests in land-clearing activities and slash and burn agriculture. While not a greenhouse gas itself, carbon monoxide interferes with the atmosphere's self-cleansing capacity by destroying chemical scavengers such as OH radicals, which are present in the atmosphere and otherwise would attack and break down air-borne methane, and thereby extends methane's atmospheric lifetime and its ultimate greenhouse warming effect. Chlorofluorocarbons, which are inert gases used as refrigerants, aerosols, foaming agents, and solvents, do not occur naturally but are industrially produced. Although the sources of nitrous oxide have not been fully characterized, it seems evident that almost half of the emissions are from natural biosystems such as tropical forests and estuaries. Most of the nitrous oxides emitted as a result of human activity are released by soil processes, accentuated by various agricultural practices, land clearing, and tropical deforestation. Other sources of nitrous oxide are combustion at low temperatures (i.e., fuel wood burning, fluidized bed combustion, and the combustion of automobile exhausts). Not all greenhouse gases are equally efficient in terms of their capacity to absorb infrared radiation. In fact, carbon dioxide is the least efficient of them all. This means that the relatively smaller amounts of the other gases are substantially multiplied in their net greenhouse contributions by their higher absorptive capacities.
4
THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT:
Contributions of the most important radiatively absorptive trace gases, in terms of their net enhancements of the greenhouse effect, are shown in Table 1. Column 4 of the table illustrates that not all greenhouse gases are equally efficient in terms of their capacity to absorb infrared radiation. For example, using C02 as the baseline unit for absorptive capacity (letting CO2 equal 1), it can be seen that a molecule of methane has a 32 times greater greenhouse effect than C02; and the CFCs have an average effect 15,000 times greater. Column 5 presents the current level of cumulative past greenhouse contributions, by compound, relative to the Table 1. NET ENHANCEMENTS OF GREENHOUSE EFFECT Compound
(1) Atmos. Conc. (1985) (parts per million)
Carbon Dioxide (C02 ) 346** Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) 0.001 Methane (CH4)
(2) Annual Increase (1985) (%)
(3) (4) (5) (6) Atmos. Life Relative Past Present span (approx.) Greenhouse Cummulative Marginal (Years) Efficiency Greenhouse Greenhouse (C02=1) Contribution Contri(1985) bution (%) (1985) (%)
0.4
100*
1
50
46
5.0
100***
15000***
17
24***
1.7
1.0
10****
32****
19
18****
0.02
0.5
0.3
0.3
Tropospheric Ozone (03)
0.1
2000
8
7
150
4
5
Nitrous Oxide (N20) *
**
150
The estimated lifetime of atmospheric carbon dioxide assumes dynamic oceanic/atmospheric equilibrium conditions, unlike that of other greenhouse gases which is largely determined by chemical breakdown (Bach, 1988). The statistical lifespan calculated as the average atmospheric lifetime of a single carbon dioxide molecule as a result of physical removal processes is 4 years (Laut, et al., 1989). Pre-industrial concentration: 260 parts per million.
***
For chlorofluorocarbons presently in use. These estimates may vary as discussed on page 6, below, with compensating shifts in the percentage breakdown of Col. 6.
****
These estimates may vary as discussed on page 5, below, with compensating shifts in the percentage breakdown of Col. 6.
Source: Cols. 1-5, Bach, 1988; Laut, etal., 1989. Col. 6, World Bank estimate, highlights the relative priorities for possible mitigation of trace gas emissions as a function of their greenhouse contributions at the margin of increasing atmospheric loading. Footnotes, World Bank.
5
pre-industrial background level. Column 6 of the table lists the present contributions, at the margin, of each of the greenhouse gases. Their future contributions to prospective increases in the greenhouse effect will be a function of their relative atmospheric concentrations, rates of annual increase, and radiative absorptive capacities. These figures are important indicators of where the opportunities for reducing greenhouse emissions lie and thereby for the evaluation of the most cost effective measures to be taken by the development community. Carbon dioxide emission breakdowns by economic sector are not available on a global basis. However, in the U.S. in 1985, the breakdown was as shown in Table 2. While sectors are here treated as independent in their greenhouse effects, in fact, they may be interdependent. For example, some industrial, transport, and residential building users generate all or a portion of their own electric power. To that extent, the percentage distributions in the table should be viewed as first-order estimates only.
Table 2. C02 Emissions by Sector in the U.S. in 1985 % of total
Electric Utilities
32.5 %
Transportation Industry Residentialbldgs.
31.0 24.7 11.8 100.0%
Source:Personalcommunication,G. Marland,Oak RidgeNationalLaboratory,U.S.Departmentof Energy.
The net greenhouse effect of methane relative to carbon dioxide depends upon the period of time-or decision horizon-over which their relative effects are compared. Once methane is released to the atmosphere it is vulnerable to the attack of chemical scavengers such as OH radicals. As a consequence, although methane's immediate greenhouse warming effect is initially 32 times as great as carbon dioxide on a molecule per molecule basis, its present expected lifetime within the atmosphere is only 10 years and thus its net cumulative effect declines to only 4 or 5 over the longer lifespan of carbon dioxide. This integration over such a long period is, however, not valid over a shorter decision horizon. Consequently, when policies are considered for periods which are shorter than the average 100 year atmospheric lifespan of carbon dioxide, the relative weight given to the greenhouse warming contribution of methane and its byproducts will increase. The fact that the breakdown of methane may involve a complex array of additional greenhouse gases implies that the gross warming effect induced by methane emissions and its byproducts could be substantially higher in reality than the figures above might suggest. In addition, other synergisms occur in interactions among the various greenhouse gas emissions themselves. Since methane per molecule is more radiatively effective as a
6
THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT:
greenhouse gas than is carbon dioxide, even small amounts of carbon monoxide would contribute significantly to the greenhouse effect by its capacity to increase the lifespan of methane. CO is produced by inefficient combustion in automobiles, industrial and household fumaces. It would be worthwhile to consider ways of reducing CO emissions, by inter alia, the introduction of appropriate energy efficiency and process control technologies. Considering that CO is a combustible waste, finding more efficient ways of burning it could also provide additional energy. Recently, in situ measurements as well as remote sensing observations have confirmed that substantial carbon monoxide releases are occuring not only in industrialized urban areas due to fossil fuel combustion but are very prominent in developing countries in South America and Africa due to extensive tropical and savannah burning for land clearing and agricultural purposes (Newell, et al., 1989). Consequently, the natural selfcleansing capacity of the atmosphere provided by OH radicals, is much more at risk than had originally been thought. Table 3. World CFC Production and Use 1985 CFC ProductionI
1985 CFC Use2
USA
31 %
29 %
W. Europe, Japan, Canada, Aus., New Zealand, E. Europe, Soviet Union Devel. Countries
59
55
