Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change • Working Group I: Science • Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability • Working Group III: Mitigation of Climate Change
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - UN scientific intergovernmental body of >1000 scientists - to assess on a comprehensive, objective, open and transparent basis the latest scientific, technical and socio-economic literature produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of the risk of human-induced climate change, its observed and projected impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation
Climate change • Fact 1: Greenhouse gases increase the temperature of the atmosphere
Greenhouse effect
Greenhouse effect
Source: Prentice Hall
Source: Prentice Hall
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Greenhouse effect
Greenhouse effect
79% N2 20% O2
79% N2 20% O2
< 1%!
< 1%!
H 2O O3 CO2 CH4 NO etc…
H 2O O3 CO2 CH4 NO etc…
!
!
Some gases absorb Earth s re-radiated heat Source: Prentice Hall
Ozone depletion (DOES NOT CAUSE CLIMATE CHAGE)
Wavelengths of solar radiation http://www.nas.nasa.gov/About/Education/Ozone/radiation.html
• Fact 1: Greenhouse gases increase the temperature of the atmosphere • Fact 2: Humans have increased atmospheric greenhouse gases by 40%
From September 21-30, 2006 the average area of the ozone hole was the largest ever observed,10.6 million square miles.
- the US has 5% of world population - the US emits 25% of global GHG
The blue and purple colors are where there is the least ozone Montreal Protocol: International agreement to phase out CFCs Concentrations of ozone-depleting substances in the troposphere peaked ~1995 and are decreasing in the troposphere and stratosphere. Ozone-depleting substances have very long lifetimes in the atmosphere (more than 40 years). Source: NASA
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Climate change: greenhouse gases
Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007)
CO2 emissions and climate change
Source: IPCC Special Report: CCS Summary for Policymakers
Climate change: GHG & other factors
Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007)
CO2 emissions and climate change
Source: IPCC Special Report: CCS Summary for Policymakers
Climate change: greenhouse gases
Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007)
Climate change: Temperature
Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007)
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Climate change: summary • Atmosphere !T, ! CO2
Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007)
Climate change: summary
Climate change: projections
• Atmosphere !T, ! CO2
• Ocean !T, ! CO2
Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007)
Climate change: projections
Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007)
Climate change: consequences
Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007)
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Climate change: consequences
Climate change: consequences Decrease in sea ice Decrease in land ice " Rise in sea level Change in weather patterns Shift in species distribution Increase ocean temperature " Change in ocean currents Increase ocean CO2 " Increase ocean acidity
Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center, W. O. Field, B. F. Molnia
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Climate change: consequences
Climate change: consequences
Decrease in land ice " Rise in sea level
Decrease in land ice " Rise in sea level ~ 20 in
Sea levels rise fast: 1 inch in 10 years WASHINGTON — Melting ice and warming waters By Robert S. Boyd have raised average sea levels worldwide by more Knight Ridder Newspapers than an inch since 1995, new data from space satellites and robotic submarines have revealed
Climate change: consequences
Climate change: consequences
Decrease in land ice " Rise in sea level 1961-2003 1993-2003
Shift in weather patterns
Source: IPCC
Source: Pearson
Climate change: consequences
Climate change: consequences
Increase ocean temperature " Change in ocean currents
Increase ocean temperature " Change in ocean currents
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Climate change: consequences
Climate change: consequences
Increase ocean temperature " Change in ocean currents
Increase ocean CO2 " Increase ocean acidity
CO2 + H2O # H2CO3 # H+ + HCO3- # H+ + CO32-
Major planktonic calcifiers • Coccolithophore • Foraminifera acidity • Pteropod
Climate change: consequences
Climate change: consequences
Increase ocean CO2 " Increase ocean
Loss of coral reefs
Affect on marine life
- Form weaker skeletons due to less carbonate (CO32-) - Dissolution of skeleton
1. Change in water temperature - Projected 2-5ºF increase in sea surface temp. by 2100 - Corals expel algae (coral bleaching) when stressed - Increased chance for survival if conditions return to normal
2. Increased acidity
J Hoogesteger!
Source: NSF, Impacts of Ocean Acidification
Mitigation
Mitigation
Increase GHG direct emissions between 1970-2004 Energy supply:145% Transport: 120% Industry: 65% Land use changes: 40% Agriculture: 27% Buildings: 26%
Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007)
Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007)
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Mitigation
Stop Coal
Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007)
Climate change: Littell study
Climate change: Stockle study
1) Douglas-fir is one of the most widespread tree species in Washington, the most important by far economically, and possibly one of the more climate-sensitive species regionally. How will future changes in climate alter Douglas- fir productivity in different parts of its range? 2) How will climate change affect species distributions, particularly in sensitive areas where species are near the edges of their climatic tolerances? 3) The area burned by fire is predicted to increase across Western N. America as a result of climate change, but what are the expectations for WA state and their consequences? 4) In the last decade, Mountain pine beetle (MPB) outbreaks have increased in the West and appear to be correlated with warmer temperatures and drought. What are the specific consequences within WA State?
Objective: Assess the potential impact of climate change and elevated CO2 on eastern WA agriculture (11% of the state’s economy) • • • •
Apples (irrigated) Potato (irrigated) Winter and spring, dryland wheat Pest outbreaks
