The Dow Chemical Company

The Dow Chemical Company Doug May Business President Olefins, Aromatics & Alternatives March 24th The Dow Chemical Company SEC Disclosure Rules Som...
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The Dow Chemical Company

Doug May Business President Olefins, Aromatics & Alternatives March 24th The Dow Chemical Company

SEC Disclosure Rules Some of our comments today include statements about our expectations for the future. Those expectations involve risks and uncertainties. Dow cannot guarantee the accuracy of any forecasts or estimates, and we do not plan to update any forward-looking statements if our expectations change. If you would like more information on the risks involved in forward-looking statements, please see our annual report and our SEC filings. In addition, some of our comments reference non-GAAP financial measures. Where available, presentation of and reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures and other associated disclosures are provided on the Internet at www.dow.com/investors.

™Trademark of The Dow Chemical Company or an affiliated company of Dow. “EBITDA” is defined as earnings (i.e., “Net Income”) before interest, income taxes, depreciation and amortization. “Adjusted EBITDA” is defined as EBITDA excluding the impact of Certain items. “Adjusted EBITDA margin” is defined as “Adjusted EBITDA” as a percentage of reported net sales. “Adjusted Return on Capital” is on a trailing twelve month basis and defined as Adjusted Net Operating Profit After Tax divided by Average Total Capital. “Adjusted Net Operating Profit After Tax” is defined as Adjusted Net Income plus Preferred Stock Dividends plus Net Income Attributable to Noncontrolling Interests plus gross interest expense less tax on gross interest expense. “Adjusted Net Income” is defined as Net Income excluding the impact of “Certain Items.” “Total Capital” is defined as Total Debt plus The Dow Chemical Company’s Stockholders’ Equity plus Redeemable Non-controlling Interest plus Non-redeemable Non-controlling Interests “Adjusted sales” is defined as “Net Sales” excluding sales related to prior-period divestitures. “TTM” is defined as trailing twelve months. “Adjusted Net Operating Profit After Tax” excludes the impact of certain items

2

Dow’s Global Presence 2014 Sales of $58,167 million

Dow Sites Around the World

2014 Sales by Region

Asia Pacific 16%

Latin America 13%

North America 37%

EMEAI 34%

Sales in Emerging Geographies: 35% Fast Facts

• ~53,000 employees • More than 6,000 products

• Manufactured in 35 countries • Sales in ~180 Countries

Emerging Geographies defined as Eastern Europe, including Russia; Asia Pacific, excluding Japan, Australia and New Zealand; Latin America; India; Middle East; Africa

3

Dow’s Strategy Balances Risk and Rewards Shareholders Dow is structurally hedged – feedstocks, currency and value chain ownership Focus remains on high-value organic growth projects and productivity Returning cash to shareholders via dividend and share repurchases

0.5% 0.0%

DAS

1.0%

TX Cracker & Derivatives

1.5%

1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0

Sadara

2.0%

New Program

LA Ethane Flex

2.5%

Completed

PDH

3.0%

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0

St. Charles

3.5%

High-Value Organic Growth Accretive EBITDA at Run-Rate ($B)

4.0%

$9.5B Cumulative Target for Share Repurchases Cumulative Share Repurchases - $B

Dividend Yield vs. Peers

4 Source: Capital IQ — February 4, 2015 Reflects announced dividend increase at Investor Forum

New Operating Segments Aligned to Dow’s Strategy

 Crop Protection  Seeds

Strategic Levers Benchmark

Consumer Solutions

Infrastructure Solutions

 Consumer Care  Dow Automotive 

 Dow Building &  

Systems Dow Electronic Materials



2014

Businesses

Agricultural Sciences

Revenue: $7.3B Adj. EBITDA: $1.0B

 Attractive market 

fundamentals Aggressive growth funding to expand leading innovation pipeline

Monsanto, Syngenta, Bayer, NuFarm, BASF, DuPont, FMC

Revenue: $4.6B Adj. EBITDA: $1.0B

Construction Dow Coating Materials Energy & Water Solutions Performance Monomers

 Solid positions in key

attractive markets Leading technology platform and strong innovation pipeline

market segments Leading technology platforms PDH and productivity drive for acrylic chain

Cabot Micro, Croda, DuPont, Sumitomo, Clariant, Stepan, Johnson Controls

    

 

RPM, Valspar, Kemira, Sherwin-Williams, Akzo Nobel, Arkema, Owens Corning, Pall, PPG, Celanese

Chlor Alkali and Vinyl Chlorinated Organics Epoxy Industrial Solutions Polyurethanes

Performance Plastics

 Dow Elastomers  Dow Electrical and

Telecommunications

 Dow Packaging and Specialty Plastics

 Energy  Hydrocarbons

Revenue: $22.4B Adj. EBITDA: $4.4B

Revenue: $15.1B Adj. EBITDA: $2.2B

Revenue: $8.4B Adj. EBITDA: $1.2B

 Leading positions in 

Performance Materials & Chemicals

 Strong integrated   

franchise(s) Chlorine carve-out PDH and Sadara Productivity Drive

Stepan, BASF, Huntsman, Eastman, Bayer, Axiall, Mitsui, Hexion

 Leading integrated  

franchise with strong market fundamentals Sadara and USGC Ethylene cycle

ExxonMobil, Borealis, Braskem, LyondellBasell, INEOS, Westlake, Mitsui, Nova

Foundation of Core Strengths Support the Entire Franchise  Cost Advantaged Feedstocks in Every Region  Scale & Operational Excellence  Molecular and Physical Integration

 Global Reach ― Marketing, Business & Operations  Expertise in Science & Technology  Strong Brand Value 5

Top Global Ethylene / Polyethylene Producers

Ethylene Capacity – 2019 Expectation

Polyethylene Capacity – 2019 Expectation

CNPC

Braskem/Idesa JV

Ineos

NPC - Iran

NPC-Iran

Petro China

Europe Asia Pacific

Chevron Phillips

Royal Dutch/Shell

Middle East and Africa

LyondellBasell

Abu Dhabi Gov't

South America Sinopec Group

LyondellBasell

IPIC Group

SINOPEC

SABIC

Exxon Mobil Corp.

Dow Chemical

SABIC

ExxonMobil

Dow Chemical

Thousand MT

North America

-

5,000

10,000

15,000 Source: Dow, IHS

Thousand MT

0

5000

10000

Source: Dow, CMAI Database, Producer Announcements

Largest Global Integrated Ethylene Position Drives Strong Returns 6

Sources of Value in Performance Plastics

Mix and Markets

Polyethylene

Ethylene

Oil to Gas Spread

Dow Value Comes from Four Sources

7

Packaging – Large Market…Strong Drivers 5% CAGR

Flexible Packaging $130 Billion

Dow Participation

30-40% PE

Rigid Packaging $175 Billion

Metal, Glass & Other $207 Billion

Market Drivers Waste & Fraud Food Loss and Security

Paper and Board $275 Billion

Cost Control Light Weighting and Processing Functionality / Promotion Easy Open and Aesthetics

Total Packaging Industry = $787 Billion

Demographic Change Demand and Lifestyle

*2013 Source: Vision Market Research, Dow Market Intelligence, Dow Sales

8 ®Trademark of The Dow Chemical Company (“Dow”) or an affiliated company of Dow DOW RESTRICTED

Derivative Operating Rates

Industry Global Polyethylene Operating Rate

Operating Rate

90%

86.3%

87.0%

87.5%

 Pricing power continues to strengthen  North America continues to be sold out  European duty discourages imports improving S/D dynamics

Peak May Extend Into Mid-Term

85.2% 85%

Near Term Strengthening

 Further start-up delays /

postponements likely (i.e., USGC, China CTO, etc.)  1% increase in global GDP would increase global O/Rs by 2%

83.9% 83.9%

Assumptions

 Base GDP growth 2.8%, 3.4% and 3.7% for 2014, 2015 and 2016, respectively

80% 2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017 Source: Dow

9

Global Ethylene Operating Rates  Operating rates continue recovery from the 2008 lows  Expect peak scenarios in 2016-2018, with pricing power improving through 2014 into 2015 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0

Nameplate Capacity

Industry Op Rate 98 96

93

92

94

94

92

91

84

85

85

86

87

88

94 90

89

88 86 84 82

Operating Rate, %

Ethylene, Millions of Tons

Ethylene Production=Demand

80

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Source: Dow, IHS, Global Insight (8/14)

10

Advantaged Positions Across the Globe

USGC Investments

 US shale

Sadara

 Low cost  Access to Asia

Revamped Alberta Advantage

 Alberta

advantage

Established Key Alliances in Latin America

European LPG

 Extending US 

shale advantage Abundant LPG for Europe

 Growing 

ethane Next large shale development

U.S. Shale Gas Production

11

Feedstock Flexibility Dow Europe LPG Cracking Volume Increasing

Dow U.S.

Dow Americas

Volume

90% 80% 70% 60%

2014 2013 2012

Jan Mar May

2018

2016

Nov

2014

Naphtha

0%

2013

25% Butane

Sep

2012

50%

60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30%

2011

Industry U.S.

Propane

Jul

Increasing Europe LPG Capability Dow Europe LPG cracking capability for ethylene production

Dow U.S.

75%

Ethane

Maximum cracking capability for ethylene production by feedstock

Industry Leading Flexibility

2010

2010

40%

2014

50% 2012

Dow ethane cracking capability for ethylene production

Increasing U.S. Ethane Capability

12

Gas Fundamentally Worth Less Than Oil

Boeing 747-800

Energy Equivalent

3.67 Tanker Trucks Jet A Fuel

15 Tanker Trucks CNG

CNG would require the entire passenger and cargo volume of the plane to be dedicated to fuel Source: Dow,

13

Structural Feedstock Advantage Provides Higher Base

Dow’s Floor Earnings Rise Due to O/G Advantage – With Upside Natural Gas

180

Brent Oil

25 20 15

150 OIL : GAS Price Arbitrage

120 90

10

60

5

30

Brent Crude Oil ($/bbl)

US Natural Gas ($/MMBTU)

30

0 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Source: Bloomberg

14

NGL Balances Still Look Favorable

Surplus

Supply

Demand

300

1000

-300

500

-900

2021

2020

2019

-1500 2018

0 2017

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

-1000 2013

500

1500

2016

-500

1000

900

2015

1500

2000

2014

0

1500

2013

2000

2500

2012

500

Propane Supply/Demand (MBD)

2500

Ethane Surplus / Deficit (MBD)

1000

2012

Ethane Usage (MBD)

3000

(Imports) / Exports

Domestic Demand

Domestic Supply

Export capability

Gas’ structural advantage drives ethane and propane production growth Source: Dow, IHS

15

Propane Exports/(Imports) (MBD)

US Propane Supply / Demand Balance

US Ethane Supply / Demand Balance

Growth Investments On Track, 2015 a Milestone Year • 2015 projects improve cost position and margins

• PDH unit operational mid-year; construction ~68% complete • TX ethylene cracker engineering ~85%, construction ~10% complete • Sadara olefins plant and polyethylene reactors startup 2H15

St. Charles Restart

TX Cracker Ground Breaking

2012

2013/2014

Run-Rate EBITDA: $250MM

LA Ethane Sadara Flex. Freeport Olefins/PE PDH

2015 $450MM

$250MM

Sadara Phase 2 & 3

2016 $500MM

TX Cracker & Derivatives

2017 $1.5B

• New products drive DAS to deliver an additional $1B in EBITDA

Dow AgroSciences

USGC & Sadara

• Marketing and sales effort identified 100% demand for Sadara PE

• New crop protection products deliver 20-30% higher margins • Enlist™ on track 1Subject to

regulatory approval

16

Dow Priorities for 2015  Productivity and operational excellence  Start up our investments (Sadara, USGC, Enlist™)  Continue aggressive portfolio optimization (Chlorine, Epoxy, JVs)  Capturing value across markets through the integrated value chains  Continued focus on shareholder value

Driving to Higher Cash Flows, More Consistent Earnings, Increased Shareholder Remuneration 17

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