SKAGEN Tellus Status Report December 2016
Key numbers as of 30 December 2016 EUR, net of fees
SKAGEN Tellus JPM Broad GBI Unhedged ** Excess return
December Q4 0,1% -0,1% 0,2%
2016 1,8% -2,4% 4,1%
1 years 5,7% 4,4% 1,3%
3 years 5,7% 4,4% 1,3%
*Inception date: 29/09/2006 **Benchmark index before 01/01/2013 was Barclay's Capital Global Treasury Index 3-5 years Unless otherwise stated, all performance data in this report relates to class A units, measured in EUR and is net of fees.
2
5 years 6,2% 9,0% -2,8%
5,2% 3,3% 1,9%
Since inception* 5,4% 5,0% 0,4%
After the storm comes calm • After a steep rise in long-term interests rates following Trump’s victory in November, interest rate markets calmed down in December. • As expected, the Federal Reserve increased the policy rate by 25 basis points at its meeting in December. The market viewed the Fed as more hawkish than expected, as the central bank signalled 3 rate hikes in 2017. • In general the key macro numbers were strong in December, which points to a good start for the global economy in 2017. This supports our view of stable or somewhat higher long-term rates in the US and central Europe. • The duration of Tellus is currently 3.7 years, which is substantially lower than the index duration of 7.6 years. At the current stage of the business cycle, we only take interest rate risk where we see there is still is a solid case for a fall in the interest rate going forward or the yield is very attractive. We have longer duration in selected countries where we expect the credit premium to fall (such as Greece, Portugal and Croatia), or where there is a high interest rate (Peru and Chile). We have very low duration in advanced economies such as the US, UK and Norway. In the latter, the investment is based on an expectation of an appreciation of the currency. • Our investments in Chile, Spain, the US and Croatia contributed most positively to the return in December. Greece, on the other hand, was a laggard. The interest rate on our Greek bond increased by 50 basis points after the Greek government decided to give pensioners a Christmas bonus. This was not approved by the creditors, and hence led to uncertainty about the future of the debt relief measures. By the end of the month the creditors agreed to go forward with the measures after Greece confirmed its continued commitment to the terms of the agreement. Rates in Greece then fell.
3
Accumulated returns since inception in EUR 70% 64%
60% 50% 40%
39%
30% 20% 15% 10%
10% 0% -10% -20% 2006
2007
2008
Fund total As of 30 December 2016
4
2009
2010
Currency
2011
2012
Bond price changes
2013
Coupons
2014
2015
2016
Accumulated returns year to date in EUR 7,0 % 6,31%
6,0 % 5,0 % 4,0 % 3,0 %
3,05%
2,0 %
1,87% 1,39%
1,0 % 0,0 % -1,0 % -2,0 %
Fund total
As of 30 December 2016
5
Currency
Bond price changes
Coupons
Top 5 best and worst contributors 2016 1,00%
0,80%
0,60%
0,40%
0,20%
0,00%
-0,20%
-0,40% Absolute return
Peru
USA
Chile
Croatia
Greece
Mexico
Portugal
Germany
0,86%
0,84%
0,81%
0,80%
0,77%
-0,32%
-0,29%
0,00%
Contributing factors are interest coupons, bond price changes and currency fluctuations As of 30 December 2016
6
Great Britain 0,02%
France 0,06%
Portfolio as of 30 December 2016 Holding Name
Currency
Holding
Percent
Maturity Date
Coupon
US Government
USD
10800
8.655
30.06.2017
0.6
US Government
USD
10000
8.001
31.03.2017
0.5
Norwegian Government
NOK
80000
7.807
19.05.2017
4.3
Croatia Government International Bond
EUR
8300
7.668
30.05.2022
3.9
Peruvian Government
PEN
25000
6.125
12.08.2037
6.9
Portugese Government
EUR
7000
5.646
15.10.2025
2.9
Chilean Government
CLP
4410000
5.56
05.08.2020
5.5
Hellenic Republic Government
EUR
9000
5.385
24.02.2035
3.0
New Zealand Government
NZD
8000
5.29
17.04.2023
5.5
Spanish Government
EUR
6000
5.221
30.04.2025
1.6
UK Government
GBP
5000
5.017
07.09.2017
1.0
UK Government
GBP
5000
5.013
23.01.2017
1.8
Mexican Government
MXN
120000
4.822
15.12.2016
7.3
Canadian Government
CAD
8000
4.815
01.03.2018
1.3
Slovenia Government
EUR
3500
4.152
30.03.2026
5.1
Dominican Republic
DOP
150000
2.737
10.05.2024
11.5
European Bank Recon & Dev
INR
200000
2.426
19.03.2018
5.8
Lithuanian Government
USD
2000
1.903
01.02.2022
6.6
7
Interest rate risk exposure PERU 0,65
GREECE 0,63
EBRD* 0,02
MEXICO 0,02 NORWAY 0,03 BRITAIN 0,04 CANADA 0,06 UNITED STATES 0,06 LITHUANIA 0,08
PORTUGAL 0,44
DOMINICAN REPB. 0,13 CHILE 0,18
SPAIN 0,42 NEW ZEALAND 0,28
SLOVENIA 0,33
CROATIA 0,38
EBRD* : European Bank of Reconstruction & Development
As of 30 December 2016
8
Interest rate exposure relative to benchmark 3,00
2,50
SOUTH AFRICA SINGAPORE SOUTH KOREA SWEDEN FINLAND BELGIUM ISRAEL HUNGARY HONG KONG AUSTRIA AUSTRALIA CZECH IRELAND DENMARK ITALY POLAND NETHERLANDS FRANCE JAPAN GERMANY EBRD* MEXICO NORWAY BRITAIN CANADA UNITED STATES LITHUANIA DOMINICAN REPB. CHILE NEW ZEALAND SLOVENIA CROATIA SPAIN PORTUGAL GREECE PERU As of 30 December 2016
9
Benchmark SKAGEN Tellus 2,00
1,50
1,00
0,50
-
10
sep. 16
apr. 16
nov. 15
jun. 15
jan. 15
aug. 14
mar. 14
okt. 13
mai. 13
des. 12
jul. 12
feb. 12
sep. 11
5,0
apr. 11
nov. 10
8,0
jun. 10
jan. 10
aug. 09
mar. 09
okt. 08
mai. 08
des. 07
jul. 07
feb. 07
sep. 06
Interest duration since the fund’s inception 10,0 10,0
9,0 9,0
Duration 8,0
7,0 7,0
6,0
Average duration = 4.31 6,0
5,0
4,0 4,0
3,0 3,0
2,0 2,0
1,0 1,0
0,0 0,0
Currency exposure INR 2,5 % DOP 2,8 %
EUR 28,8 %
MXN 4,8 %
NZD 5,3 %
CLP 5,8 %
CAD 6,2 %
USD 19,1 %
PEN 6,3 %
NOK 8,0 %
As of 30 December 2016
11
GBP 10,2 %
Currency exposure relative to benchmark 45% 40%
SKAGEN Tellus
Benchmark
35% 30% 25% 20%
15% 10% 5% 0% EUR USD GBP NOK PEN CAD CLP NZD MXN DOP INR DKK SEK TRY JPY BRL CNY AUD RUB PLN ZAR CZK HKD HUF ILS KRW CHN SGD CNH PHP As of 30 December 2016
12
Moody’s rating on Tellus’ portfolio relative to benchmark 60 %
50 %
SKAGEN Tellus
Benchmark
40 %
30 %
20 %
10 %
0%
Aaa
Aa1
As of 30 December 2016
13
Aa2
Aa3
A1
A2
A3
Baa1 Baa2 Baa3
Ba1
Ba2
Ba3
B1
B2
B3
Caa1 Caa2 Caa3
For more information please see: SKAGEN Tellus A on our web pages SKAGEN’s Market report Unless otherwise stated, all performance data in this report relates to class A units and is net of fees. Historical returns are no guarantee for future returns. Future returns will depend, inter alia, on market developments, the fund manager’s skill, the fund’s risk profile and subscription and management fees. The return may become negative as a result of negative price developments. SKAGEN seeks to the best of its ability to ensure that all information given in this report is correct, however, makes reservations regarding possible errors and omissions. statements in the report reflect the portfolio managers’ viewpoint at a given time, and this viewpoint may be changed without notice. The report should not be perceived as an offer or recommendation to buy or sell financial instruments. SKAGEN does not assume responsibility for direct or indirect loss or expenses incurred through use or understanding of the report. Employees of SKAGEN AS may be owners of securities issued by companies or governments that are either referred to in this report or are part of the fund's portfolio.