Research from Emirates NBD

Equity Daily MENA Equities th

The Tadawul continued its positive run for the 13 consecutive day, in what was largely a positive day for GCC equity indices. Dar Al Arkan surged 5.9% in heavy trading after the developer said in a statement that unnamed international and local firms reevaluated its real estate portfolio at a premium of 53% to its book value of SAR 9.7bn. Other notable gainers were Zain Saudi (+8.4%) and Saudi Cement (+3.5%) The DFM index ended flat in what was a volatile day of trading at the exchange. However on a positive note, the index found support at lower levels indicating that investors are still willing to invest fresh money, albeit at lower levels. Tabreed (+ 14.5%) and Tamweel (+14.8%), however, continued their positive run. Aabar raised its stake in Arabtec in open market according to data on the DFM website. Barwa Real Estate (-5.4%) dragged the Doha Stock Market lower as the company reported a weak set of numbers. Qatar Telecom, on the other hand, gained +1.3% on its earnings and dividend announcements.

Daily

MENA Equity Indices (1d % change)

6 March 2012 DFM

0.0%

ADX

-0.6%

Tadawul

0.0%

DSM

-0.2%

KWSE

0.2%

Bahrain Bourse

0.4%

MSM

0.4%

EGX 30

0.7%

ISE 100

-2.0%

MADEX

-0.1%

TUSISE

-0.2% -3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research

MENA Equity Indices Last Index

Irfan Ellam Head of MENA Equity Research +971 4 230 7807 [email protected] Aditya Pugalia Analyst +971 4 230 7802 [email protected]

Price

1d chg

T.Value

Best

Best

Div.

% above

(USD mn)

P/E

P/B

Yield

200d MA

DFM

1,754

0.1

256.0

10.7

0.8

3.0

71.0

ADX

2,625

-15.9

49.6

8.4

1.1

3.8

32.8

Tadawul

7,354

2.5

3,672.8

12.4

1.9

3.1

92.1

ISE 100

59,685

-1216.9

937.1

9.4

1.3

2.5

55.9

EGX 30

5,344

36.4

74.3

8.0

1.2

3.4

73.3

KWSE

6,201

14.4

245.1

-

-

3.1

32.4

Bahrain

1,152

4.4

4.6

-

-

5.6

12.2

MSM

5,869

21.7

16.4

10.0

1.5

4.7

66.7

DSM

8,723

-18.5

89.6

10.5

1.7

4.2

80.0

MADEX

9,338

-4.9

10.7

13.8

2.6

3.6

50.0

TUSISE

4,744

-10.6

3.0

14.6

-

2.0

60.7

Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research

Research from Emirates NBD

Global Equities US stocks declined on mixed macroeconomic data with the ISM Manufacturing data coming in better-than-expected while the factory order data came in weaker. Alcoa (-3.6%), Caterpillar (-2.1%) and Bank of America (-2.0%) led the declines. European equities declined across the board on weaker-than-expected services and manufacturing PMI data and on China's announcement of a lower growth target of 7.5%. Salzgitter declined -5.4% after saying it may not match 2011 results while Gagfah jumped 27% after settling a sales dispute with the city of Dresden. BP gained +1.6% after reaching a settlement with Maconda oil spill victims in the US. Asian equities are trading weaker this morning tracking losses in developed market equities overnight. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was trading -0.7% at the time of writing. BHP Billiton declined -2.5% and ICBC declined -2.6% after a report that Goldman Sachs may sell a big part of its stake in the bank.

Developed Market Equity Indices (1d % change) DJIA

-0.1%

S&P 500

-0.4%

Nasdaq-0.9% FTSE 100

-0.6%

Dax -0.8% Cac 40

-0.4%

SMI

0.1%

Stoxx 600

-0.6%

Nikkei -0.8% S&P / ASX 200

-0.2% -1%

0%

1%

Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research

Emerging Market Equity Indices (1d % change) MEXBOL -0.5% KLCI JSE -0.5% Ho Chi Minh FTSE / JSE Africa -0.5% Micex Bovespa -1.2% TWSE -1.4% KSE 100 Nifty-1.5% Sensex-1.6% KOSPI -0.9% SHCOMP -0.6% Hang Seng -1.4% -2%

-1%

0.3% 4.0% 1.1%

1.5%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research

Page 2

Research from Emirates NBD

MENA News Flow Telecom Nawras refinanced a USD 149mn loan facility. The new-five year facility comprises a term loan of USD 87mn and revolving credit facility of OMR 24mn. Bank Muscat, DBS Bank, Qatar National Bank and The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi were arrangers. (Bloomberg) Du reported a 16% drop in full year profits to AED 1.09bn as royalty to the federal government increased 288% to AED 714.6mn. The net profit was ahead of consensus analyst’s expectations of AED 997mn by 9%. Du’s board proposed a dividend of AED 0.15 per share for 2011. (Bloomberg) Banking & Finance Takaful Emarat Insurance started a SAR 20mn equity fund that protects 90% of the capital with an expected rate of return between 3-5%. The fund is managed by Riyad Capital. (Bloomberg) UAE bank loans fell for the first time in five months in December 2011. Loans dropped 0.3% m/m while deposits rose 1.5% m/m. (Bloomberg) Al Rajhi shareholders approve 2H 2011 dividend of SAR 2 per share. (Bloomberg) Fitch assigns Doha Bank’s EMTN program ‘A’ rating. (Bloomberg) Bank Muscat denied plans to open branches in India, Sri Lanka and Mauritius. (Bloomberg) Emirates NBD raised CNY 750mn from the sale of its first yuan-denominated bond. The three-year bond was said to be priced to yield 4.875%. (Bloomberg) Mashreqbank sells USD 50mn 2-year floating rate note. (Bloomberg) Fitch affirms Riyad Bank and Samba Financial Group at A+ with stable outlook. (Bloomberg) Bank Nizwa, Oman's first Islamic bank, is likely to launch a OMR 60mn IPO in April. The lender will offer 40% capital as part of the IPO which will be managed by Oman Arab Bank. (AB) Petrochemicals Korea National Oil Corp and GS Energy Co signed an agreement with ADNOC to develop and operate three oil field in UAE for 30 years. Korea National Oil Co will own 34% of the venture, GS Energy Holding 6% and ADNOC will have the remaining stake. (Bloomberg) Maridive & Oil Services reported a 40% y/y decline in net profit to USD 28.7mn while revenues rose 40% y/y to USD 391.3mn. The board recommended one bonus share for every seven held. (Bloomberg) Real Estate Emaar Properties launched sale of premium Golf Homes located in Arabian Ranches Golf course. Only 18 villas, each in a plot area of 17,000 to 27,000 sq.ft are for sale. (Bloomberg) Barwa Real Estate reported 14.2% decline in full year profits to QAR 1.2bn. The board recommended a dividend of QAR 1 per share. (Bloomberg) Aabar Investments raised its stake in Arabtec to 5.28%, according to data posted on Dubai's stock exchange. (Bloomberg) Sharjah Executive Council (SEC) has approved an AED 650,000 housing grant for Emiratis as it moves to meet its affordable housing shortfall. Up to 394 Emiratis are expected to be approved in the first batch of grants but the number is expected to triple in the following batches. (AB) Transportation & Logistics Saudi Arabia will seek tenders soon for construction of a cross-country railway linking Riyadh with Jeddah. (Bloomberg) Industrials Taqa board to discuss potential dividend in its 13 March board meeting. (Bloomberg) Saudi Arabian Mining Co said it has awarded Hyundai Engineering & Construction Co Ltd a contract worth USD 1.5bn to build the alumina refinery for its joint venture with Alcoa in Saudi Arabia. (Zawya) GB Auto reported 26% y/y decline in 2011 profits to EGP 191mn as net finance costs increased 30% to EGP 217mn. Full year revenue rose 8% y/y to EGP 7.42bn. The net profit missed consensus analysts’ estimates of EGP 208mn by 8.1%. (Bloomberg) Food & Retail Juhayna Food Industries reported 18% y/y decline in 2011 profits to EGP 185.9mn from EGP 227.8mn. (Bloomberg)

Page 3

Research from Emirates NBD

A USD 300mn shopping mall development to open in Lebanon next year will create 1,200 retail jobs, developer Majid Al Futtaim (MAF) has said. Beirut City Centre, will house a total of 200 stores over three levels and 40 international food and beverage outlets. (AB) Other Dubai plans to raise funds by selling debt based on future revenues at Dubai Duty Free. The Department of Finance is working with the Investment Corporation of Dubai and is planning to raise at least USD 500mn from the securitization of receipts. (Reuters) The Saudi Development Fund provided USD 50mn in credit facilities to Kenana Sugar Co and White Nile Sugar Co. (Bloomberg) Saudi Arabia’s HSBC PMI index declined to 59.6 in February from 60 a month earlier. (Bloomberg) The UAE HSBC PMI eased to 52.0 from 52.4 in January. (Bloomberg) Libya's stock exchange is to re-open on March 15, just over a year after the country's conflict forced it to close down. (AB)

Page 4

Research from Emirates NBD

Events Calendar Date

Company / Country

Event

6-Mar

Gulf Navigation Holding

Earnings Release

6-Mar

Dhofar Insurance

Earnings Release

6-Mar

Dhofar Poultry

Earnings Release

6-Mar

Dhofar Power Co

Earnings Release

6-Mar

Kenya Electricity Generating Co Ltd

Earnings Release

6-Mar

Commercial Facilities Co

Earnings Release

6-Mar

Jazeera Airways

Earnings Release

6-Mar

Tourism Urbanization

Earnings Release

6-Mar

National Cable & Wire Manufacturing Co

Earnings Release

6-Mar

Arab Real Estate Development

Earnings Release

6-Mar

National Poultry PLC

Earnings Release

6-Mar

Ismailia National Food Industries

Earnings Release

6-Mar

Union Investment Corp

Earnings Release

6-Mar

Arab Jordanian Insurance Group

Earnings Release

6-Mar

Jordan Tanning

Earnings Release

6-Mar

Al Bilad Securities & Investment Co

Earnings Release

6-Mar

Nutri Dar

Earnings Release

6-Mar

Kafaa

For

Financial

&

Economical

Earnings Release

Investments 6-Mar

Arab Union International Insurance

Earnings Release

6-Mar

BLC Bank SAL

Earnings Release

6-Mar

Jordan Press & Publ/ad-Dustr

Earnings Release

6-Mar

First Jordan Investment Co

Earnings Release

6-Mar

Shareco Brokerage

Earnings Release

6-Mar

Jordan Sulpho-Chemicals

Earnings Release

6-Mar

General Investment

Earnings Release

6-Mar

International Ceramic Industries

Earnings Release

6-Mar

Arab Orient Insurance Co Ltd

Earnings Release

6-Mar

Al-Amal Financial Investment Co

Earnings Release

6-Mar

Banque Europeenne pour Le Moyen Orient

Earnings Release

Page 5

Research from Emirates NBD

SAL 6-Mar

Arab Aluminum Co SAE

Earnings Release

6-Mar

Societe Generale de Banque Jordanie

Earnings Release

6-Mar

High Performance Real Estate Investments

Earnings Release

6-Mar

Jordan Himeh Minerals

Earnings Release

6-Mar

Offtec Investment Group

Earnings Release

6-Mar

National Insurance Co/Jordan

Earnings Release

7-Mar

Salhia Real Estate Co KSC

Earnings Release

7-Mar

Zad Holding Co

Earnings Release

7-Mar

Arab Banking Corp/Jordan

Earnings Release

7-Mar

Saba'ek Investment

Earnings Release

7-Mar

Zara Investments

Earnings Release

7-Mar

Jordan Kuwait Bank

Earnings Release

7-Mar

Specialized Jordan Investment Co

Earnings Release

7-Mar

Yarmouk Insurance Co Ltd

Earnings Release

7-Mar

Premier Business And Projects Co Ltd

Earnings Release

7-Mar

Jordan French Insurance

Earnings Release

7-Mar

Arab Cotton Ginning

Earnings Release

7-Mar

Irbid District Electricity

Earnings Release

7-Mar

Cairo Amman Bank

Earnings Release

7-Mar

Unitronics

Earnings Release

Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research

Page 6

Research from Emirates NBD

Major Market Movers

Most Active by Value

Dubai Financial Market (1d % change) DEYAAR DB

-4.4

SALAMA DB DB

AMAN

DB

DFM

DB

Stock

-4.8

GULFNAV DB NCC

-5.8 -5.9 -10.0 4.2

SHUAA DB DIC

Dubai Financial Market

8.9

TABREED DB

14.5

TAMWEEL DB

14.8

-16.0

-8.0

0.0

8.0

16.0

TAQA

DH

GCIC

DH

-2.0

1.24

4.20%

189.50

Dubai Investments

1.00

8.93%

148.22

Tabreed

2.13

14.52%

133.90

Tamweel

1.32

14.78%

96.13

Emaar Properties

3.05

-2.24%

86.92

Stock

-2.3 -3.1

RAKCEC DH

-3.5

DH

4.0

SCIDC DH

4.0

FOODCO DH

7.1

WATANIA DH QTEL

DFM

-2.3

SUDATEL DH ADNH

T. Value AED mn

Abu Dhabi Stock Market

Abu Dhabi Stock Market (1d % change) DH

1d % chg

8.5

DB

NBS

Price (AED)

Price (AED)

1d % chg

T. Value AED mn

Aldar Properties

1.27

0.79%

43.25

Sorouh Real Estate

1.28

-0.78%

29.66

Rak Cement Co

0.82

2.50%

20.95

First Gulf Bank

21.10

-1.86%

16.39

Methaq Takaful

1.45

-1.36%

13.17

8.4

DH

9.8 -8.0

-4.0

0.0

4.0

8.0

12.0

Tadawul

Tadawul (1d % change) ALKHLEEJAB

-2.5

TRDUNIONAB

-2.6

TAKWEEN AB

-3.2

RJHI

AB

-3.4

ACE

AB

Stock

-4.0

JADCO AB

4.7

ALMUTAKAAB

5.3

ALARKAN AB

6.4

ZAINKSA AB

Price (SAR)

1d % chg

T. Value SAR mn

Dar Al Arkan

10.00

6.38%

1.53bn

Mobile Telecom

8.95

7.83%

1.02bn

Emaar Economic City

10.70

9.74%

704.19

SABIC

101.25

-0.49%

611.89

Alinma Bank

12.75

-0.78%

584.64

7.8

EMAAR AB

9.7 -8.0

-4.0

0.0

4.0

8.0

12.0

Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research

Page 7

Research from Emirates NBD

Major Market Movers

Most Active by Value

Qatar Stock Exchange (1d % change) DHBK

QD

NLCS

QD

KHCD

QD

UDCD

QD

Qatar Stock Exchange

-1.6

Stock

-2.0 -2.6 -4.1

BRES

QD

QGTS

QD

IQCD

QD

1.2

QTEL

QD

1.3

QATI

QD

1.4

KCBK

QD

-5.4 0.9

2.6 -8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

PEARL KK -7.1 GFH

KK -7.3 KK -7.3

GPI

KK -7.7 7.7

SOKOUK KK

8.6

KGL

KK

IIC

KK

9.6

MUNTAZAHKK

9.8

8.9

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

EC

GMCI

EC

-5.40%

78.86

Industries Qatar

143.10

1.20%

52.57

Qatar Gas Transport

17.55

0.92%

32.63

Qatar Telecom

167.00

1.27%

28.52

Masraf Al Rayan

26.55

0.19%

23.45

-1.4

AIND

EC

-1.5

EC

-1.6

OTMT

EC EC

1.6

AMOC

EC

1.7

COMI

EC

EGTS

EC

HRHO

EC

T. Value KWD mn

89.00

4.71%

4.27bn

Al Madina

69.00

2.99%

4.05bn

Mobile Telecom

860.00

0.00%

3.62bn

Abyaar Real Estate

52.00

4.00%

3.39bn

Kuwait Intl Bank

260.00

4.00%

3.21bn

Stock

TMGH

(KWD fil)

1d % chg

Hits Telecom

-1.4

MOIL

Price

Egypt Stock Exchange

Egypt Stock Exchange (1d % change) UNIP

28.90

Stock

FIRSTDUBKK

T. Value QAR mn

Barwa Real Estate

-7.1

ABAR

1d % chg

Kuwait Stock Exchange

Kuwait Stock Exchange (1d % change)

EKTTITABKK

Price (QAR)

-2.5

2.0

Price (EGP)

1d % chg

T. Value EGP mn

TMG Holding

4.95

1.64%

69.81

Orascom Tele Media

1.54

-2.53%

57.58

Comm Intl Bank

25.29

2.02%

51.96

Palm Hills Development

2.26

0.89%

33.62

EFG Hermes

16.21

5.53%

24.51

2.3 5.5 -5.0

-3.0

-1.0

1.0

3.0

5.0

7.0

Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research

Page 8

Research from Emirates NBD

Foreign Ownership Limits Stock

Allowed

Owned

Dubai

Stock

Allowed

Owned

Stock

Allowed

Owned

Al Buhairah Ins. Co.

25.00

2.98

SCIDC

15.00

1.95

Air Arabia

49.00

20.68

Al Khazna Ins. Co.

25.00

0.80

Sorouh Real Estate

15.00

11.96

Ajman Bank

49.00

1.97

Aldar Properties

40.00

10.59

Sudan Telecom

100.00

80.40

Arabtec Holdings

49.00

7.76

Bank of Sharjah

30.00

17.36

UAQ Cement

49.00

8.21

Aramex

49.00

35.24

Comm. Bank Intl

20.00

19.60

Union Cement

49.00

3.02

Drake & Scull Intl

49.00

17.43

Dana Gas

49.00

62.66

UNB

40.00

6.32

DFM

49.00

3.84

Eshraq Properties

49.00

26.72

United Arab Bank

49.00

45.07

Dubai Investments

20.00

3.08

Finance House

20.00

9.33

United Insurance Co.

25.00

0.00

Dubai Islamic Bank

15.00

2.22

First Gulf Bank

25.00

13.63

Waha Capital

49.00

5.08

DNIR

25.00

0.06

Foodco Holding

49.00

1.43

Qatar

Emaar

49.00

9.45

Green Crescent Ins.

25.00

14.58

Al Khaliji

24.96

23.70

Du

22.00

0.34

Gulf Cement Co.

49.00

18.84

Al Khalij Holding

23.25

6.14

Emirates NBD

5.00

1.81

Gulf Livestock Co.

49.00

66.92

Barwa Real Estate

24.97

4.80

GGICO

49.00

0.91

Gulf Medical Projects

49.00

8.60

CBQ

19.15

17.07

Gulf Navigation

20.00

3.36

JULPHAR

49.00

31.00

Doha Bank

18.83

7.11

National Cement Co.

25.00

1.04

Insurance House

25.00

0.50

Gulf Intl Services

17.50

9.63

TABREED

49.00

5.73

ASMAK

49.00

0.04

Industries Qatar

7.50

6.59

Shuaa Capital

49.00

18.52

Investbank

20.00

0.41

Masraf Al Rayan

49.00

16.35

TAKAFUL

25.00

17.35

METHAQ

25.00

19.10

National Leasing

25.00

11.67

Takaful House

25.00

3.58

NBAD

25.00

2.55

QEWS

25.00

7.92

Tamweel

40.00

4.74

RAK Bank

20.00

15.51

Qatar Gas Transport

24.69

12.28

Union Properties

15.00

3.03

NMDC

5.00

1.47

Qatar Insurance Co.

17.89

9.04

Qatar Telecom

100.00

87.11

QIIB

19.71

2.75

Abu Dhabi ADCB

49.00

3.44

RAK Properties

49.00

27.07

Qatar Islamic Bank

20.59

4.58

BILDCO

25.00

7.08

RAK Poultry & Feeding

49.00

14.66

Qatar National Bank

11.36

4.06

AD National Hotel

25.00

1.34

RAK Cement Co.

49.00

21.97

Qatar Navigation

25.00

6.52

ADNIC

25.00

0.09

RAK Ceramics

49.00

9.65

Qatar Telecom

100.00

22.96

AD Ship Building

25.00

4.30

RAK Co for White Cement

49.00

3.87

United Development

25.00

20.52

Agthia Group

25.00

8.43

RAK National Ins.

25.00

0.02

Vodafone Qatar

100.00

3.43

Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research

Page 9

Research from Emirates NBD

Other Asset Classes Currencies Close

%1d chg

1 year fwd

1.3217

+0.14

1.3256

GBPUSD

1.5865

+0.19

USDJPY

81.5600

-0.31

USDCAD

0.9946

+0.54

AUDUSD

1.0671

USDCHF

0.9122

EURGBP USDCNY

EURUSD

Close

%1d chg

Close

%1d chg

USDTRY

1.7705

+0.14

EURAED

4.8545

+0.13

1.5820

USDEGP

6.0310

81.1015

USDSAR

3.7503

-0.00

GBPAED

5.8269

+0.21

+0.00

JPYAED

0.0450

+0.22

1.0033

USDQAR

3.6397

-0.02

CADAED

3.6930

-0.52

-0.58

1.0254

USDKWD

-0.22

0.9063

USDBHD

0.2784

+0.24

AUDAED

3.9192

-0.58

0.3770

--

CHFAED

4.0257

+0.23

0.8331

-0.06

0.8379

USDOMR

6.3069

+0.13

6.3067

USDMAD

0.3850

--

TRYAED

2.0745

-0.14

8.4445

-0.08

INRAED

0.0737

-0.67

Swaps

Rates Interbank

1 month

3 month

6 month

1 year

Close

1d chg (bps)

EIBOR

0.9750

1.5363

1.7138

1.9863

USD 2 yr

0.5525

2.9

USD LIBOR

0.2428

0.4746

0.7432

GBP LIBOR

0.7235

1.0459

1.3681

1.0544

USD 5 yr

1.1250

3.0

1.8756

USD 10 yr

2.0890

3.0

EURIBOR

0.5210

0.9340

1.2420

1.5720

EUR 2 yr

1.0565

2.1

JPY LIBOR

0.1443

0.1957

0.3359

0.5537

EUR 5 yr

1.5330

2.0

CHF LIBOR

0.0675

0.0917

0.1517

0.3670

EUR 10 yr

2.2415

1.7

Commodities & Fixed Income Commodities CRB CMDT Index

Close

%1d chg

-

Bonds / Sukuk

YTM

1d chg (bps)

ADGB 5.5 14

1.0590

-0.6

CDS

Close

1d chg (bps)

Abu Dhabi

131.2

+0.7

Gold

1706.50

-0.36

DUGB 6.396 14

4.4420

+1.3

Dubai

379.5

-0.5

Silver

33.98

-2.33

QATAR 5.15 14

1.3100

+0.2

Qatar

132.5

+0.7

Oil (WTI)

106.72

+0.02

BHRAIN 6.273 18

5.0830

+1.3

Saudi Arabia

132.5

+0.5

Oil (Brent)

123.80

+0.12

EGYPT 5.75 20

6.5770

-29.3

Bahrain

368.6

-4.0

Aluminium

2243.75

-1.84

TURKEY 7.25 15

3.3460

-10.7

Egypt

605.8

-4.2

Copper

8501.00

-0.89

MOROC 5.375 17

4.1910

+1.9

Turkey

229.0

-0.8

Tin (LME)

22978.00

-2.96

BTUN 4.5 20

5.5870

+1.4

Morocco

245.0

+2.5

Zinc (LME)

2063.00

-1.63

US Tsy 2 yr

0.2935

+2.0

US Tsy 10 yr

2.0104

+3.7

Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research

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Research from Emirates NBD

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