Renewable Energy An Introduction Adam Brown Simon Mueller Anselm Eisentraut
Energy Training Week IEA Paris 4 April 2014
© OECD/IEA 2014
RED Programme – 4 April 2014 Introduction to Renewables
© OECD/IEA 2010
Time
Topic
0900 - 0920
Introductions
0920 - 0940
Market Trends
0940 -1000
Drivers and Barriers, Policy Mechanisms and Trends
1000 - 1030
Discussion
1030 -1100
Coffee
1100 -1200
Technologies - Electricity
1200 - 1230
Discussion
1230 - 1400
LUNCH
1400 - 1445
Heat Sector
1445 -1530
Transport Sector
1530 - 1600
Coffee
Presenter
Adam Brown
Simon Mueller
Anselm Eisentraut
Renewable Energy Division - Some Current Priorities 1. RE Technology Status and Progress
Roadmaps • • • • • • • •
Wind PV Concentrating Solar Power Biofuels Geothermal Hydro Bioenergy Solar Heating and Cooling
In-depth studies
2. Global RE Markets and Policies
Medium Term Renewable Energy Market Report RE Policy Database Deploying Renewables Worldwide Challenges and Prospects (November 2011)
3. System Integration Issues © OECD/IEA 2010
The Power of Transformation)
4. Other activities and networking
IEA Energy Technology Network & Implementing Agreements RENEWABLE ENERGY: 10 out of over 40 Agreements
© OECD/IEA 2010
Bioenergy Geothermal Energy Hydrogen Hydropower Ocean Energy Systems Photovoltaic Power Systems (PVPS) Solar Heating and Cooling Solar Power and Chemical Energy Systems Wind Energy RE Technology Deployment
Renewable Energy Markets Drivers and Barriers, Policy Mechanisms and Trends Adam Brown
Training Week Paris 4 April 2014
© OECD/IEA 2014
Positive outlook for renewable electricity TWh
Global renewable electricity production, by technology (TWh)
8 000 7 000
IEA 2° C Scenario 30%
25%
6 000
20%
5 000 4 000
15%
3 000
10%
2 000
5%
1 000 0
0% 2006 2008 Hydropower Offshore wind Geothermal Gas-fired generation 2016
2010
2012 2014 Bioenergy Solar PV Ocean Nuclear generation 2016
2016
2018 2020 Onshore wind CSP % Total generation
Renewable electricity projected to scale up by 40% from
2012 to 2018 © OECD/IEA 2010
Renewable power spreading out everywhere Total Renewable Annual Capacity Additions, by region (GW)
This map is without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area.
Emerging markets more than compensate for slowing growth and © OECD/IEA 2010
volatility in markets such as Europe and the US
Biofuels production growing but leveling off Global biofuels supply adjusted for energy content vs road transport oil demand
Biofuels supply by region
mboe/d 1.8
mb/d
2.5
5.0%
2.0
1.6
4.0%
1.5
1.4
3.0%
1.0
1.2
2.0%
1.0
1.0%
0.5 0.0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Rest of Global Biofuels
OECD EUR Biofuels
Brazil Biofuels
US Biofuels
0.8
0.0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Biofuels Supply (adj. for energy content) As % of Global Road Transport Demand
Biofuels to cover 3.9% of global road transport by 2018, But downside risk from growing policy uncertainty in
the EU and US; and advanced biofuels not making enough progress © OECD/IEA 2010
Final energy use of renewables for heat rises by 24% As % of final energy consumption for heat, renewables rise to almost
10% in 2018, up from just over 8% in 2012 and 8% in 2006 China accounts for 39% of global growth OECD Europe drives 22% of growth, with EU 2020 targets and rising bioenergy (direct use and commercial heat) and solar thermal use Final energy use of renewable sources for heat (including commercial heat) by region EJ
1
2
20
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
% RES-H 13 12%
18 10%
16 14
8%
12 10
6%
8 4%
6 4
2%
2 0
0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 OECD Americas OECD Asia Oceania OECD Europe China Brazil India Rest of non-OECD % total heat, World (right axis)
Note: excludes traditional biomass
© OECD/IEA 2010
The Renewable Energy Family…….
…..share some features, but not all the same! © OECD/IEA 2010
Characteristics Technology
Status
Typical Scale
Power Generation Biomass Geothermal Solar PV Solar CSP Hydro
Commercial Commercial Commercial Demonstration Commercial
100kW – 300 MW 1 – 250 MW 1kW – 50 MW 1 – 250 MW 100kW - 10,000 MW
Wind On Shore
Commercial
1kW – 500 MW
Wind Off Shore
Demonstration
100 – 1000 MW
Global Energy Production TWh/y
Range of costs
267 67 19 0.9 3288
40 -150 50 - 200 140 - 400 120 - 250 50-100
USD/MWh
60 -100 340
Wave and Tidal R&D,D Heating and Cooling Solar Water Heating Commercial Geothermal Commercial Traditional Biomass Commercial Modern Biomass Commercial Transport Fuels Bioethanol from sugar Commercial and starch
© OECD/IEA 2010
100kW - 2 MW 1kWth – 1 MWth 0.5 – 10 MWth 0-5 kWth 5kWth – 30 MWth
120 -250 0.5 PJ 319 440 34000 9000 PJ
200 -350 USD/MWTh 160--500 55-165 NA 9 - 55 USD/LGE 0.4 – 0.6
2100
Biodiesel from oil crops
Commercial
0.6 -0.8
New Technologies for transport fuels
R&D,D
0.8 – 0.9
Characteristics Technology
Status
Typical Scale
Power Generation Biomass Geothermal Solar PV Solar CSP Hydro
Commercial Commercial Commercial Early Commercialisation Commercial
Wind On Shore
Commercial
1kW – 500 MW
Wind Off Shore
Early Commercialisation
100 – 1000 MW
Global Energy Production TWh/y
Range of costs USD/MWh
100kW – 300 MW 1 – 250 MW 1kW – 50 MW 1 – 250 MW
267 67 19 0.9
40 -150 50 - 200 140 - 400 120 - 250
100kW - 10,000 MW
3288
50-100 60 -100
340
Wave and Tidal R&D,D Heating and Cooling Solar Water Heating Commercial Geothermal Commercial Traditional Biomass Commercial Modern Biomass Commercial Transport Fuels Bioethanol from sugar Commercial and starch
© OECD/IEA 2010
100kW - 2 MW 1kWth – 1 MWth 0.5 – 10 MWth 0-5 kWth 5kWth – 30 MWth
120 -250 0.5 PJ 319 440 34000 9000 PJ
200 -350 USD/MWTh 160--500 55-165 NA 9 - 55 USD/LGE 0.4 – 0.6
2100
Biodiesel from oil crops
Commercial
0.6 -0.8
New Technologies for transport fuels
R&D,D
0.8 – 0.9
Characteristics Technology
Status
Typical Scale
Power Generation Biomass Geothermal Solar PV Solar CSP Hydro
Commercial Commercial Commercial Demonstration Commercial
100kW – 300 MW 1 – 250 MW 1kW – 50 MW 1 – 250 MW 100kW - 10,000 MW
Wind On Shore
Commercial
1kW – 500 MW
Wind Off Shore
Demonstration
100 – 1000 MW
Global Energy Production TWh/y 308 71 65 4 3644
Range of costs USD/MWh 40 -150 50 - 200 140 - 400 120 - 250 50-100 60 -100
434 120 -250 12
Wave and Tidal R&D,D Heating and Cooling Solar Water Heating Commercial Geothermal Commercial Traditional Biomass Commercial Modern Biomass Commercial Transport Fuels Bioethanol from sugar Commercial and starch
© OECD/IEA 2010
100kW - 2 MW 1kWth – 1 MWth 0.5 – 10 MWth 0-5 kWth 5kWth – 30 MWth
0.84 PJ 319 440 34000 9000 PJ
200 -350 USD/MWTh 160--500 55-165 NA 9 - 55 USD/LGE 0.4 – 0.6
2100
Biodiesel from oil crops
Commercial
0.6 -0.8
New Technologies for transport fuels
R&D,D
0.8 – 0.9
Costs are Reducing led to cost reductions in key technologies Hydro and some geothermal already cost-competitive New technologies such as wind onshore , PV and biomass getting competitive in a broader set of circumstances
© OECD/IEA 2010
100
PV Module Price (USD 2010/Wp)
Growing deployment has
< 1976
< 1980
10
< 1990 < 2000
Learning Rate: 19.3%
< 2010
1 1
10
100
1 000
10 000 100 000
Cumulative capacity (MW) Data from Breyer and Gerlach, 2010
Improving competitiveness for renewable power Most dynamic technologies – onshore wind and solar PV –
increasingly competitive in a number of markets But market framework matters Deployment with little support occurring in some areas with rising energy needs, good resources, and predictable long-term revenues Global levelised costs of power generation ranges (USD per MWh) Utility scale 500
MTRMR 2012
400
300
200
100
0
Note: costs reflect differences in resource, local conditions, and the choice of sub-technology.
© OECD/IEA 2010
Small scale
Growing shares of renewables in all sectors, for all scenarios… 50.00% 45.00%
40.00% 35.00% 30.00% 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00%
5.00% 0.00% 2008
CPS scenario 2035 Electricity
NPS scenario 2035 Heat
450 scenario 2035
Transport
All scenarios point out a large growth of renewables © OECD/IEA 2010
Continuing Policy Support: Necessary and Justified Policies need to continue to deliver energy security,
environmental and economic benefits Need for economic incentives RE technologies not yet generally cost competitive under current pricing mechanisms (e.g. lack of global carbon pricing) Transitional support needed to stimulate learning and cost reduction and bring a larger portfolio of RET to competitiveness
Address non-economic barriers that hamper
deployment © OECD/IEA 2010
Access to market and administrative hurdles Access to finance Infrastructure barriers Lack of awareness and skilled personnel Public acceptance and environmental barriers
Policies need to have highest impact at lowest costs
Strategic Drivers - Outlook
Key point: The geographical basis of deployment is set to expand. © OECD/IEA 2010
Policy Trends Many more countries putting policies in place,
particularly outside OECD than in 2005. 45 of the 56 focus countries now have RE Electricity targets, including 20 non-OECD members. 53 of the 56 focus countries have electricity support policies in place, compared to 35 in 2005.
© OECD/IEA 2010
Why? Climate Protection
Economic Development
Energy Access and Security
© OECD/IEA 2010
Issues
Technical
Economic
Environmental and Social
Institutional, Political and Legislative
© OECD/IEA 2010
Policy Priorities: Changing Over Time Deployment
Inception •
Clear RE strategy and targets
•
Attractive support
•
Set up regulatory framework
Take-off •
Predictable and rapidly adaptive incentives
•
Focus on noneconomic barriers
•
Manage total support costs
Consolidation •
System integration and transformation
•
Market design and expose RE to competition
•
Public acceptance
Time © OECD/IEA 2010
Policy Examples Economic Barriers Capital Grants Feed In Tariffs Tenders Obligations Technical Standards RD&D Socio Economic Planning Conditions Sustainability Criteria Awareness raising © OECD/IEA 2010
Financial incentives
Carbon Tax/Trading (e.g. EU ETS, Sweden)
Feed In Tariffs/Premiums (e.g. Germany) Green Certificate Schemes/Quotas (e.g. UK, US RPS)
Tenders (e.g. Brazil) Tax Incentives (e.g. US) Grants/Soft Loans (RE Heat) © OECD/IEA 2010
Characteristics of Support Systems FIT/FIP
TGC
Volume Management Price Control Investor Confidence Complexity
Growth of “hybrid” systems © OECD/IEA 2010
Tender
Tax Incentive
Capital Grant
Four Key Policy Ingredients System Integration Non Economic Barriers Smart Incentives
Clear Strategy and Targets © OECD/IEA 2010
