Real-Time Models of Road Traffic Sven Maerivoet [email protected]

Katholieke Universiteit Leuven (Belgium) Department of Electrical Engineering ESAT-SCD (SISTA)

“Real-Time Models of Road Traffic” – Sven Maerivoet

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Overview Overview DOCOP Other PhD dissertation PhD time planning

• Doctoral training programme – – – – –

Courses attended Conferences / study days attended Didactical / organisational tasks Lectures given Papers written

• Other – Miscellaneous – Software (overview) – Software (screenshots)

• PhD dissertation – Five parts

• PhD time planning “Real-Time Models of Road Traffic” – Sven Maerivoet

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Courses attended Overview DOCOP Courses Conferences Didactical Lectures Papers Other PhD dissertation PhD time planning

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Academic English for Graduate Students Design and Analysis of Experimentation Dynamic Traffic Flow Modelling and Control Introduction to S-Plus Programming in MATLAB SISTA Seminars System Identification Time Series Analysis Traffic Study: from Static through Dynamic to Simulation Verkeerskunde basis Wavelets with applications in signal- and imageprocessing

“Real-Time Models of Road Traffic” – Sven Maerivoet

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Conferences / study days attended Overview DOCOP Courses

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Conferences Didactical Lectures Papers Other PhD dissertation PhD time planning

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8th TRAIL Congress - A World of Transport, Infrastructure and Logistics (The Netherlands) 10th World Congress and Exhibition on Intelligent Transport Systems and Services (Spain) 16th International Symposium on Mathematical Theory of Networks and Systems MTNS2004 (Belgium) 22nd Benelux Meeting on Systems and Control (Belgium) 23rd Benelux Meeting on Systems and Control (The Netherlands) Conference on “Large Data Sets” (The Netherlands) Faculty of Engineering PhD Symposium (Belgium); winner of the Best Poster Award Fractal Scaling in Financial Prices by Benoit Mandelbrot (Belgium) Launch of the SCORES platform (Belgium) Mobiliteit morgen... Eer de files gaan stilstaan: België moet kiezen (Belgium) Quantum gravity by Sir R. Penrose (Belgium) Studiedag Verkeersveiligheid (Belgium) Seminarie transportmodellen ter ondersteuning van het mobiliteits- en vervoersbeleid in België (Belgium) Study Day of the Interuniversity Attraction Poles (Belgium) Symposium on “Incomplete Data” (The Netherlands) The Transport Science and Technology Congress - TransTec04 (Greece) Workshop on Traffic and Granular Flow 2003 (The Netherlands)

“Real-Time Models of Road Traffic” – Sven Maerivoet

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Didactical / organisational tasks Overview DOCOP Courses Conferences Didactical Lectures Papers Other PhD dissertation PhD time planning

• Didactical: – Case-studies of datamining and industrial process-control (2001, 2002, 2003, 2004) – Problem solving and engineering design, P&O3 (2004) – Lectures given for: • Case-studies of datamining and industrial process-control (2002, 2003, 2004) • Economical Sectors and Technology (2003, 2004)

• Organisational (chief technical officer): – 16th International Symposium on Mathematical Theory of Networks and Systems - MTNS2004 (Belgium) – Launch of the SCORES platform (Belgium)

• Sustainability Effects of ATMS – DWTC-CP/40 “Real-Time Models of Road Traffic” – Sven Maerivoet

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Lectures given Overview DOCOP Courses Conferences Didactical Lectures Papers Other PhD dissertation PhD time planning

• Some 30 lectures given during 2001 – 2004. • A small excerpt: – Academic Oratory Skills - Mastering original and persuasive speech (CLT/ILT, K.U.Leuven) – Evalueren aan de hand van papers (Duo/Icto summercourse “Doceren in het BaMa tijdperk”) – Models in Aid of Traffic Management (Seminarie transportmodellen ter ondersteuning van het mobiliteits- en vervoersbeleid in België) – Traffic @ SISTA (SYSTeMS Dialog, University of Gent, and Transport & Mobility Leuven (TML) seminar) – Dag van de Technologie – Traffic: an Interplay between Models, Simulations, and Control Actions (Friday Seminar, University of Antwerp)

• Keywords: dynamic, entertaining, crystal clear, amusing. “Real-Time Models of Road Traffic” – Sven Maerivoet

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Papers written Overview DOCOP

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Journal papers: –

Courses Conferences

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Didactical Lectures

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Papers

Conference papers: –

Other PhD dissertation

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PhD time planning

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“A comparison of a cellular automaton and a macroscopic model”, in Proceedings of the Workshop on Traffic and Granular Flow ‘03, Technical University of Delft, The Netherlands, october 2003. “Development of an improved traffic cellular automaton model for traffic flows on a highway road network”, in Proceedings of the 10th World Congress and Exhibition of Intelligent Transport Systems and Services (ITSS03), Madrid, Spain, november 2003.

Book contributions: –

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“Non-concave fundamental diagrams and phase transitions in a stochastic traffic cellular automaton” in The European Physical Journal B – Condensed Matter Physics, vol. 42, nr. 1, pages 131-140, nov 2004. “Graduate Students and the Art of Public Speaking”, will be submitted to International Journal of Mathematical Education in Science and Technology.

“SvenGL C++ 3D Library for OpenGL”, in Computer Graphics using OpenGL, Francis S. Hill, Jr., University of Massachusetts Amherst, USA-MA 01003-4410, ISBN 0023548568, summer 2005.

Approximately 10 abstracts and interviews.

Will be remedied ! “Real-Time Models of Road Traffic” – Sven Maerivoet

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Miscellaneous Overview DOCOP Other Miscellaneous

• Created a database with some 1200 traffic related articles, of which over 870 are online available (password protected).

Software (overview) Software (screenshots) PhD dissertation PhD time planning

• Obtained a database with motorway traffic measurements (flow, occupancy, (time-)mean speed) for the years 2001 and 2003: 1655 sensors, 106 measurements/year, 3.24 GB/year. • Doctoral research progress can be tracked on: – Personal doctoral log (672 pages, 31/08/2001 – 02/12/2004) – Website: http://phdsven.dyns.cx “Real-Time Models of Road Traffic” – Sven Maerivoet

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Software (overview) Overview DOCOP Other Miscellaneous

• Mitrasim 2000 – “Microscopic Traffic Simulator” – Developed as my Master’s thesis (“my ticket to Leuven”).

Software (overview) Software (screenshots) PhD dissertation PhD time planning

• SM TCA+ (Traffic Cellular Automata) – Basis for my PhD work in the context of TCA microscopic traffic flow models. – Gained an international didactical status (frequently downloaded + received feedback).

• CATSIM (Cellular Automata Traffic Simulator) – Framework for my PhD dissertation. “Real-Time Models of Road Traffic” – Sven Maerivoet

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Software (screenshots) Overview DOCOP

• Mitrasim 2000

Other Miscellaneous Software (overview) Software (screenshots) PhD dissertation PhD time planning

• SM TCA+

“Real-Time Models of Road Traffic” – Sven Maerivoet

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PhD dissertation Overview DOCOP

• Table of contents:

Other PhD dissertation

– Introduction

(I) Theory (II) TCA (III) Data (IV) Distributed (V) Applications PhD time planning

• • • • •

(I) (II) (III) (IV) (V)

Traffic Flow Theory Traffic Cellular Automata Numerical Traffic Data Distributed Simulation of Traffic Flows Applications

– Conclusions – Appendices – References “Real-Time Models of Road Traffic” – Sven Maerivoet

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(I) Traffic Flow Theory Overview DOCOP Other PhD dissertation (I) Theory (II) TCA (III) Data (IV) Distributed (V) Applications PhD time planning

• Traffic flow theory – Brief history, microscopic and macroscopic traffic characteristics. – Performance indicators. • Travel times and their reliability, …

– Fundamental diagrams. • Regimes, capacity drop and hysteresis, theories of traffic breakdown.

• Traffic flow models – Transportation planning models. • Land-use and socio-economical behaviour. • Trip- and activity-based modelling. • Transportation economics.

INTRODUCE A CONSISTENT NOMENCLATURE

– Traffic flow propagation models. • Macroscopic (LWR, solutions, higher-order models). • Mesoscopic (gas-kinetic, improvements). • Microscopic (car-following, psycho-physiological, TCA, …). “Real-Time Models of Road Traffic” – Sven Maerivoet

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(II) Traffic Cellular Automata Overview DOCOP Other

• Traffic Cellular Automata – Background, physical setup, and mathematical notation.

PhD dissertation (I) Theory (II) TCA (III) Data (IV) Distributed (V) Applications

– Single- and multi-cell models.

PhD time planning

– Multi-lane and city (i.e., two-dimensional grid) traffic. – Analytical approximations. “Real-Time Models of Road Traffic” – Sven Maerivoet

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(II) Traffic Cellular Automata Overview DOCOP Other PhD dissertation (I) Theory

• Relations between LWR (macro) and TCA (micro) – LWR = purely deterministic traffic flow model. – Assumes a fundamental diagram (i.e., equilibrium relation). – We try to incorporate stochasticity into the FD (TGF03).

(II) TCA (III) Data (IV) Distributed (V) Applications PhD time planning

LWR

TCA

“Real-Time Models of Road Traffic” – Sven Maerivoet

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(III) Numerical Traffic Data Overview DOCOP Other PhD dissertation

• Database from Flemish Traffic Centre: – Period: 2001 and 2003. – 1655 sensors, 106 measurements/year, 3.24 GB/year.

(I) Theory (II) TCA

“Flemish triangle/rhomb”

(III) Data

Data secondary road network ?

(IV) Distributed

Antwerpen

(V) Applications PhD time planning

Gent

Hasselt

Leuven Brussel “Real-Time Models of Road Traffic” – Sven Maerivoet

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(III) Numerical Traffic Data Overview DOCOP

• Quality assessment

Other PhD dissertation (I) Theory (II) TCA (III) Data (IV) Distributed (V) Applications

• Off-line travel time calculation

PhD time planning

“Real-Time Models of Road Traffic” – Sven Maerivoet

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(IV) Distributed Simulation Overview DOCOP Other

• Hybrid modelling – Stochastic LWR coupled with TCA.

PhD dissertation (I) Theory (II) TCA (III) Data

Not sure about including this ? Is it worth it (requires some work…) ?

(IV) Distributed (V) Applications PhD time planning

Critique: simulating the entire road network on a microscopic scale is feasible but not relevant !

E.g., the link transmission model (LTM) will undoubtedly be faster… but how much ? “Real-Time Models of Road Traffic” – Sven Maerivoet

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(IV) Distributed Simulation Overview DOCOP Other PhD dissertation (I) Theory (II) TCA (III) Data

• CATSIM implementation – “Cellular Automata Traffic Simulator” – Functional description. – Distributed computing aspects (ITSS03) • Parallellisation and synchronisation. • Static and dynamic load balancing.

(IV) Distributed (V) Applications PhD time planning

– Incorporating online measurements (i.e., tuning the simulator) “Real-Time Models of Road Traffic” – Sven Maerivoet

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(V) Applications Overview DOCOP Other PhD dissertation (I) Theory

• General applications – Sustainability effects of ATMS. – Simulation-based (heuristic) dynamic traffic assignment. – Platoon driving (‘blokrijden’) in Belgium.

(II) TCA (III) Data (IV) Distributed (V) Applications PhD time planning

• Congestion prediction – Geographical scope = Flemish triangle/rhomb. • Includes primary AND secondary road network (alternatives…).

– Predict travel times and variability (robustness properties). • Use previous analyses from database to get off-line estimates. • Use CATSIM to simulate traffic evolution in the future. • Provide travel time estimate of route.

“Real-Time Models of Road Traffic” – Sven Maerivoet

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PhD time planning Overview DOCOP Other

• AIM: finish writing dissertation at the end of June. • BUT: buffer period until end of August.

PhD dissertation PhD time planning

• Reading committee: from September on (first approval of promotor BDM and copromotor BI, then rest of committee). • International member: – either Andreas Schadschneider or Kai Nagel.

• DEFENCE: schedule from the end of October on. “Real-Time Models of Road Traffic” – Sven Maerivoet

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