Profile of the Midland Region

Skills and Labour Market Research Unit (SLMRU), SOLAS

[email protected]

Introduction The engagement between education and training providers and employers through the Regional Skills Forum needs to be based on the shared understanding of the labour market they are operating in. Both sides represent the key players in relation to the local labour markets, one on the side of the demand for skills (employers) and one on the side of the supply of skills (education and training providers). The availability of labour market information is critical in ensuring that the engagement between the education and training providers and employers results in an evidence-based, well-informed dialogue about the issues regarding the supply and demand for skills and a mutual agreement on how best to resolve issues identified. The labour market information presented here is aimed at providing a starting point in relation to the evidence upon which the engagement should be based. It contains a selection of tables, charts and info-graphics on each region’s economy (GVA, income, enterprise base), labour market indicators (employment rate, unemployment rate etc.), demand (employment trends, profile of recent hires, vacancies, immigration statistics, estimates of recruitment requirement by broad skill group) and supply (graduate output and unemployment). It also provides an overview of some issues identified through recent analysis of the labour market, including skill shortages and labour turnover. The data and analysis presented here has been prepared using the data held in the National Skills Database, which collates a wide range of datasets and models on demand and supply of labour at occupational level. This includes data from the Central Statistics Office, Department of Education and Skills, Department of Social Protection, Department of Jobs, Enterprise and Innovation and a number of models for labour market analysis developed by the SLMRU, including the Labour Market Transitions Model and Occupational Employment Projections Model. The information will be updated in line with the availability of updates of the underlying data sets. Skills and Labour Market Research Unit (SLMRU), SOLAS May 2016

[email protected]

Contents •

Regional profile – – – –

• •

Labour market indicators Demand – – – – – – –

•

Employment Hires Vacancies Employment permits to non-EEA nationals Job announcements Employment projections Expansion, replacement and recruitment requirement

Supply – – – –

•

GVA Incomes Active enterprises Medium-large employers

Education and training Live Register Job ready job seekers Unemployment

Issues identified – –

Skill and labour shortages Turnover

Gross Value Added (GVA) by region at basic prices (euro million) 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000

2012

50,000

2013

40,000

2014E

30,000 20,000 10,000 Midland

Border

Mid-West

West

South-East

South-West

Dublin plus Mid East

0

Source: Analysis by SOLAS (SLMRU) based on CSO County Incomes and Regional GDP 2013 Note: 2014 figures are estimates

Gross Value Added (GVA) at basic prices by region and sector

10,000

Market & non-market services Manufacturing, building & construction Agriculture, forestry & fishing

Midland

Border

Mid-West

West

South-East

South-West

Dublin plus Mid East

0

Market & non-market services Manufacturing, building & construction Agriculture, forestry & fishing

Source: Analysis by SOLAS (SLMRU) based on CSO County Incomes and Regional GDP 2013

South-West

20,000

South-East

30,000

Border

40,000

Mid-West

50,000

West

60,000

State

70,000

100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Midland

80,000

Sectoral distribution of regional GVA at basic prices, 2013

Dublin plus Mid East

GVA at basic prices by region and sector, 2013 (euro million)

GVA per person at basic prices (euro) 60,000 50,000 40,000

2007

30,000

2013 20,000

2014E

10,000

Midland

Border

South-East

West

Mid-West

State

South-West

Dublin plus Mid East

0

Source: Analysis by SOLAS (SLMRU) based on CSO County Incomes and Regional GDP 2013 Note: 2014 figures are estimates

Indices of Gross Value Added (GVA) per person at basic prices by region (State = 100) 140

Dublin plus Mid-East South-West

120 State = 100

100 Mid-West

80

West South-East Border

60

Midland

40 20

Source: Analysis by SOLAS (SLMRU) based on CSO County Incomes and Regional GDP 2013

2014E

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

0

Disposable income per person by region, 2000-2014E (euro) 26,000 24,000 22,000

Dublin Mid-West South-West West South-East Midland

State

20,000 18,000

Mid-East

16,000

14,000 12,000

Border

Laois Westmeath Longford Offaly Midland State

2008

2012

2013

2014E

% change 2012-2013

21,677 20,436 20,417 19,954 20,621 22,565

17,137 17,508 17,207 16,459 17,076 18,964

17,406 17,317 16,809 16,505 17,052 18,707

17,940 17,762 17,235 16,965 17,523 19,309

1.6% -1.1% -2.3% 0.3% -0.1% -1.4%

% of State % change average 2008-2013 (2013) -19.7% -15.3% -17.7% -17.3% -17.3% -17.1%

Source: Analysis by SOLAS (SLMRU) based on CSO County Incomes and Regional GDP 2013 Note: 2014 figures are preliminary estimates

93.0% 92.6% 89.9% 88.2% 91.2% 100.0%

2014E

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

10,000

% Deviation from State average (2013) -7.0% -7.4% -10.1% -11.8% -8.8%

Disposable income per person by county, percentage deviation from the State average, 2013 11.6% 9.5% 1.1% -0.6% -1.7% -1.8% -2.4% -3.0% -3.6% -4.2% -4.6% -5.0% -6.1% -6.5% -7.0% -7.1% -7.2% -7.4% -7.6% -8.2% -10.1% -10.6% -11.0% -11.8% -12.5% -13.5%

-18.9% -25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

Dublin Limerick City and County Cork City and County Kildare Galway City and County North Tipperary Wicklow Waterford City and County Sligo Meath South Tipperary Leitrim Louth Clare Laois Carlow Mayo Westmeath Kilkenny Wexford Longford Cavan Kerry Offaly Roscommon Monaghan Donegal

15%

Source: Analysis by SOLAS (SLMRU) based on CSO County Incomes and Regional GDP 2013

Number of active enterprises by region (private business economy), 2012 70,000 60,000

57,989

50,000 40,000 27,386

30,000

20,395

20,000

18,332

17,975

16,381

14,584

9,302

10,000

Midland

Mid-West

West

South-East

Border

Mid-East

South-West

Dublin

0

Source: Analysis by SOLAS (SLMRU) based on CSO Business Demography data Note: Private business economy covers NACE Rev. 2 sectors B to N (excluding activities of holding companies)

Number of active enterprises (private business economy), Midland, 2008-2012 Westmeath

14,000

Offaly

Laois

Longford

12,000

10,000 8,000 6,000

4,000 2,000 0 2008

Westmeath Offaly Laois Longford Midland State

2009

2010

2008

2011

2012

4,107 3,001 2,752 1,735 11,595 216,265

3,380 2,452 2,366 1,420 9,618 189,055

3,290 2,348 2,273 1,391 9,302 185,530

2011

2012

% change 2011-2012 -2.7% -4.2% -3.9% -2.0% -3.3% -1.9%

% change 2008-2012 -19.9% -21.8% -17.4% -19.8% -19.8% -14.2%

Source: Analysis by SOLAS (SLMRU) based on CSO Business Demography data

Number of active enterprises by sector, Midland, 2012 3,500

Administrative activities Professional, scientific & technical

3,000

Real estate activities

2,500

Financial & insurance activities Information & communication

2,000

Accommodation & food

1,500

Transportation & storage Wholesale & retail trade

1,000

Construction

500

Water supply, sewerage activities Electricity, gas, etc. supply

Longford

Laois

Offaly

Westmeath

0

Manufacturing Mining & quarrying

Source: Analysis by SOLAS (SLMRU) based on CSO Business Demography 2012

Distribution of active enterprises by sector, Midland, 2012 100%

Administrative activities

90%

Professional, scientific & technical

80%

Real estate activities

70%

Financial & insurance activities

60%

Information & communication

50%

Accommodation & food

40%

Transportation & storage

30%

Wholesale & retail trade

20%

Construction

10%

Water supply, sewerage activities

Source: CSO, Business Demography 2012

Longford

Laois

Offaly

Westmeath

Midland

State

0%

Electricity, gas, etc. supply Manufacturing Mining & quarrying

Distribution of active enterprises and persons engaged by company size, Midland, 2012 Active enterprises

Size class Under 10

Persons engaged

Westmeath Offaly

Under 10

Under 10

10 - 19

10 - 19

20 - 49

20 - 49

50 - 249

50 - 249

250 and over

250 and over

Laois Longford

Size class

Westmeath Offaly

91.3%

91.8%

93.2%

92.2%

10 - 19

*

*

*

*

10 - 19

*

20 - 49

2.3%

2.0%

2.0%

2.2%

20 - 49

50 - 249

1.0%

0.9%

0.6%

1.2%

50 - 249

*

*

*

*

250 and over

Source: CSO, Business Demography 2012

Under 10

250 and over

40.7%

Laois Longford

40.8% 50.7%

*

*

14.3%

12.4% 16.1%

14.5%

23.4%

19.6% 12.3%

24.6%

*

*

43.3%

*

*

*

Distribution of persons engaged by sector, Midland, 2012 100%

Administrative activities

90%

Professional, scientific & technical

80%

Real estate activities

70%

Financial & insurance activities

60%

Information & communication

50%

Accommodation & food

40%

Transportation & storage

30%

Wholesale & retail trade

20%

Construction

10%

Water supply, sewerage activities

Source: CSO, Business Demography 2012

Longford

Laois

Offaly

Westmeath

Midland

State

0%

Electricity, gas, etc. supply Manufacturing Mining & quarrying

Industrial activity, Midland Industrial units by sector 400

Gross output (€billion) in industrial units by sector 2.5

371 333

350

327

2.2

335 298

300

2.1

2.0

250

2.0

2.1

2.1

1.5

200

Traditional

150

Modern

Traditional Modern

1.0 0.7

0.7

2008

2009

100

0.6

0.7

0.7

2011

2012

0.5

50

28

25

20

21

18

0

0.0 2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2010

Source: SLMRU Analysis of CSO data (Census of Industrial Production)

Number of medium-large business by sector, Midland, 2014 Sector Industry

Laois

Longford 5

Construction Wholesale & retail

Offaly 9

Westmeath 16

1 7

4

5

Transport Accommodation & food

4

Information & communication

Total 14

44

1

2

9

25

1

1

1

3

5

13

1

1

1

3

1

1

3

5

Finance Professional services

2

Admin & support

1

1

PAD

3

3

3

4

13

Education

3

2

6

9

20

Health & welfare

4

1

4

8

17

Other

1

0

2

2

5

Total

27

22

43

58

150

Source: SLMRU analysis of DataIreland (Kompass) data

Distribution of companies (medium-large) by sector, Midland, 2014 100%

Other

90%

Health & welfare

80%

Education

70%

PAD

60%

Admin & support

50%

Professional services

40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

Finance Information & communication Accommodation & food Transport Wholesale & retail Construction Industry

Source: SLMRU analysis of DataIreland (Kompass) data

Employers: food & beverage manufacturing (medium-large), Midland

Source: SLMRU analysis of DataIreland (Kompass) data

Employers: other manufacturing (medium-large), Midland

Source: SLMRU analysis of DataIreland (Kompass) data

Employers: wholesale & retail (medium-large), Midland

Source: SLMRU analysis of DataIreland (Kompass) data

Employers: accommodation & food (medium-large), Midland

Source: SLMRU analysis of DataIreland (Kompass) data

Labour market & associated indicators, Midland Indicator / Statistic

Midland

*Target (if / where relevant)

State

Population (15-64)

187,900

3,001,800

Labour Force

135,400

2,170,500

60.3%

60%

120,800

1,983,000

68.2%

70%

15%

16%

Unemployment

14,700

187,500

Unemployment Rate

10.9%

8.7%

Youth Unemployment Rate

27.8%

19%

Youth Unemployment Ratio

10.3%

7%

5.3%

4.7%

8%

7%

NEET (15-24)

19%

12%

Tertiary Level Education (30-34)

48%

53%

60%

6%

7%

15%

Participation Rate Employment Employment Rate (20-64) Self-Employment

Long Term Unemployment Rate Early School Leavers (ESL)

Life Long Learning (LLL)

Source: SLMRU analysis of CSO QNHS data Q4 2015; *EU 2020 and Ireland’s NSS targets

69%-71%