IHS Chemical

Process Economics Program Review 2014-06 Methanol Process Summary

By Anthony Pavone, with contributions by Syed Naqvi and Jamie Lacson

October 2014

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IHS Chemical Process Economics Program | Review 2014-06

IHS Chemical agrees to assign professionally qualified personnel to the preparation of the Process Economics Program’s reports and will perform the work in conformance with generally accepted professional standards. No other warranties expressed or implied are made. Because the reports are of an advisory nature, neither IHS Chemical nor its employees will assume any liability for the special or consequential damages arising from the Client’s use of the results contained in the reports. The Client agrees to indemnify, defend, and hold IHS Chemical, its officers, and employees harmless from any liability to any third party resulting directly or indirectly from the Client’s use of the reports or other deliverables produced by IHS Chemical pursuant to this agreement. For detailed marketing data and information, the reader is referred to one of the IHS Chemical programs specializing in marketing research. THE IHS CHEMICAL ECONOMICS HANDBOOK Program covers most major chemicals and chemical products produced throughout the world. In addition the IHS DIRECTORY OF CHEMICAL PRODUCERS services provide detailed lists of chemical producers by company, product, and plant for the United States, Europe, East Asia, China, India, South & Central America, the Middle East & Africa, Canada, and Mexico.

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PEP Review 2014-06 Methanol Process Summary By Anthony Pavone, with contributions by Syed Naqvi and Jamie Lacson October 2014

Abstract Methanol is a high-volume industrial alcohol (CAS: 67-56-1), which is a clear liquid at standard temperature and pressure with a low viscosity. It is used primarily as a feedstock to make derivative chemicals. Methanol can also be used to produce gasoline via the ExxonMobil MTG process, as commercialized in New Zealand. Its chemical structure is CH3OH, and its molecular weight is 32.04 g/mol. Methanol is highly flammable and toxic to humans. In 2013, global methanol demand was approximately 60 million metric tons, while supply was 97 million metric tons, resulting in an industry capacity utilization of 62%. Global demand growth between 2013 and 2015 is expected to average 7.5% per year. Major global methanol producers include Methanex (Canada), National Petrochemical Company (Iran), Sabic (Saudi Arabia), Petronas (Malaysia), and Kingboard (Hong Kong). Methanol spot prices for the largest market (China) were $350-450/mt during 2013. Methanol is produced commercially in a 3-step process. In the first step, synthesis gas (a hydrogen:carbon monoxide vapor mixture with a molar ratio of 2:1) is produced from natural gas in most countries, but from coal via gasification in China. In the second step, the synthesis gas is condensed to produce crude methanol in a fixed bed reactor using copper/zinc on alumina catalyst. In the third step, methanol is purified by conventional fractional distillation. This review presents the production economics for producing methanol from natural gas and separately from syngas via four licensed technology processes (Haldor-Topsoe, JM/Davy, Lurgi, and Toyo Engineering). We also present the integrated Lurgi coal-to-methanol process. Lastly, we present production economics for producing methanol from coal via five separate licensed gasification technologies (GE Quench, GE Radiant, Shell Oil, CB&I E-Gas, and Siemens). Our production economics are based upon ‘mega methanol’ production capacity of nominally 5,000 metric tons per day. This review also highlights the new iPEPSpectra™ cost module. The cost module, which is provided with the electronic version of this review, is a powerful interactive tool with which the user can interpret data in a flexible manner by generating pivot tables and corresponding charts. In this review, the iPEPSpectra™ cost module is demonstrated with historical economics for the methanol processes for different regions of the world. Until now, most process economics were presented as snapshot comparisons. Due to fluctuation and variation of feedstock and utility prices over time and in different regions, ranking of the processes using a snapshot comparison can be misleading. An iPEPSpectra™ historical economics comparison provides a more comprehensive way of assessing competing technologies, leading to a more valid investment decision.

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Contents Executive summary ....................................................................................................................................... 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................... 1 Process technology .................................................................................................................................... 1 Product properties ..................................................................................................................................... 2 Developing technologies ........................................................................................................................... 2 Natural gas based licensors ....................................................................................................................... 3 Coal gasification based licensors .............................................................................................................. 3 Production economics ............................................................................................................................... 3 Methanol production processes..................................................................................................................... 4 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................... 4 Reaction chemistry .................................................................................................................................... 6 Steam methane reforming (SMR) chemistry ......................................................................................... 7 Partial oxidation (POX) chemistry ........................................................................................................ 8 Combined reforming chemistry ............................................................................................................. 9 Autothermal reforming (ATR) chemistry ............................................................................................... 11 Coal gasification chemistry ................................................................................................................. 13 Methanol synthesis reaction chemistry ................................................................................................ 15 Methanol synthesis reaction kinetics ................................................................................................... 17 Water gas shift reaction ....................................................................................................................... 18 CO2 dry reforming ............................................................................................................................... 19 Methane cracking................................................................................................................................. 19 Product properties ................................................................................................................................ 19 Development status.............................................................................................................................. 20 Licensor design advances ........................................................................................................................ 21 JM/Davy advanced gas-heated reformer ............................................................................................. 21 Lurgi’s two-stage methanol synthesis converter ................................................................................. 24 Oxygen-blown autothermal reformer technology................................................................................ 27 Air pre-heat steam methane reformer .................................................................................................. 28 Status of catalyst development ................................................................................................................ 29 Reforming catalysts ............................................................................................................................. 29 Methanol synthesis catalysts................................................................................................................ 29 Typical methanol synthesis converter configurations ............................................................................. 30 Process technology alternatives............................................................................................................... 31 Major commercial methanol licensor offerings ...................................................................................... 31 Haldor-Topsoe commercial technology............................................................................................... 31 JM/Davy low pressure methanol technology....................................................................................... 42 Lurgi methanol process technology ..................................................................................................... 55 Toyo Engineering methanol process.................................................................................................... 65 Coal gasification for methanol production .............................................................................................. 79 Licensed gasifier technologies ............................................................................................................. 86 Comparison of key process parameters of commercial processes ....................................................... 89 Process economics 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Introduction ............................................................................................................................................. 92 Prior PEP publications ............................................................................................................................ 92 Economic basis of comparison ................................................................................................................ 93 Feedstock prices .................................................................................................................................. 93 Energy and utility unit prices ............................................................................................................... 93 Fixed cost factored estimating factors ................................................................................................. 94 IHS assumptions for economic analysis.................................................................................................. 94 Capital investment ............................................................................................................................... 95 Project construction timing .................................................................................................................. 96 Available utilities ................................................................................................................................. 96 Production cost factors ........................................................................................................................ 97 Project economics for natural gas and generic coal based mega methanol processes ............................ 97 Capital cost comparison....................................................................................................................... 97 Feedstock consumption intensity......................................................................................................... 99 Production cost comparison ............................................................................................................... 100 Capital cost segmentation by plant section ........................................................................................... 101 Mega methanol production economics from syngas ............................................................................. 101 Capital cost estimates for ‘back end’ of process................................................................................ 102 Syngas unit raw material consumption .............................................................................................. 103 Production cost estimate .................................................................................................................... 104 Product margin analysis..................................................................................................................... 105 Coal gasification licensor mega methanol production economics ........................................................ 106 Capital cost comparison..................................................................................................................... 108 Unit coal consumption to produce methanol ..................................................................................... 109 Unit production cost to produce methanol via coal gasification technologies .................................. 110 Profit margin analysis for making methanol via licensed coal gasification technologies ................. 112 Methanol market overview ....................................................................................................................... 113 Uses for methanol.................................................................................................................................. 113 Conventional uses for methanol ........................................................................................................ 113 Demand drivers for methanol demand growth .................................................................................. 113 Emerging uses for methanol .............................................................................................................. 115 Demand for methanol ............................................................................................................................ 116 Global methanol demand ................................................................................................................... 116 Segmentation of demand by use ........................................................................................................ 116 Segmentation of methanol demand geographically ........................................................................... 117 Historical methanol demand growth .................................................................................................. 118 Forecast methanol demand growth – geographically and by end use ............................................... 120 Methanol supply .................................................................................................................................... 120 Distribution of global methanol capacity by region .......................................................................... 121 Distribution of global methanol capacity by producing company ..................................................... 121 Recent announcements of new capacity ............................................................................................ 122 Market share of methanol technology licensors ................................................................................ 123 Market selection of process technology............................................................................................. 124 October 2014

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Methanol global trade............................................................................................................................ 125 Trade patterns .................................................................................................................................... 125 Drivers for methanol trade ................................................................................................................. 125 Map of methanol trade ....................................................................................................................... 125 Methanol pricing ................................................................................................................................... 126 Historic prices for methanol .............................................................................................................. 126 Feedstock historical pricing – Natural gas and coal .......................................................................... 127 Historical economics comparison – an iPEPSpectraTM analysis ............................................................... 128 Historical prices..................................................................................................................................... 128 Historic methanol pricing .................................................................................................................. 128 Historic natural gas prices ................................................................................................................. 129 Historic coal prices ............................................................................................................................ 131 Historic and projected capacity, consumption and operating rates.................................................... 133 Historical process economics comparison – the iPEPSpectra™ cost module ...................................... 135 Environmental emissions .......................................................................................................................... 152 Greenhouse gas carbon dioxide emissions ............................................................................................ 152 IHS PEP convention for accounting for carbon dioxide emissions....................................................... 153 Process emissions .............................................................................................................................. 153 Emissions from on-site combustion ................................................................................................... 154 Emissions from off-site electrical generation .................................................................................... 154 How we arrived at these emissions estimates ....................................................................................... 154 Calculating process emissions ........................................................................................................... 154 Calculating emissions from on-site combustion.................................................................................... 155 Calculating emissions from off-site electrical generation ..................................................................... 155 Supplemental data sources for methanol plant CO2 emissions ............................................................. 155 Natural gas based methanol plant data .............................................................................................. 156 Coal based methanol plant data ......................................................................................................... 160 Natural gas based estimate of CO2 emissions from licensor specific methanol processes.................... 160 Coal based estimate of CO2 emissions from licensor specific methanol processes .............................. 161 Water consumption ............................................................................................................................... 162 References ................................................................................................................................................. 163

Tables Table 1: Table 2: Table 3: Table 4: Table 5: Table 6: Table 7: Table 8: Table 9:

Major Methanol-Derived Chemicals ......................................................................................... 1 Major Producers of Methanol.................................................................................................... 1 Specifications for Federal AA Grade Methanol ........................................................................ 2 Capital Costs ............................................................................................................................. 3 Unit Production Costs ............................................................................................................... 4 Estimated Capital Costs............................................................................................................. 4 Production Costs for 5000 mtd of Methanol ............................................................................. 4 Proposed methanol project capacity .......................................................................................... 5 Lurgi Estimate of Syngas Generation Technology Performance ............................................ 13

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Table 10: Elementary steps in a kinetic model of methanol synthesis .................................................... 18 Table 11: Acceptable Contaminant Concentrations in Reagent Grade Methanol (% wt) ....................... 20 Table 12: Specification of Federal Grade AA Methanol ......................................................................... 20 Table 13: Status of Haldor-Topsoe mega methanol technology ............................................................. 32 Table 14: Comparison of combined reforming versus autothermal reforming ....................................... 37 Table 15: Lurgi gasifier typical raw syngas composition........................................................................ 58 Table 16: Methanol licensor catalyst supplier position ........................................................................... 91 Table 17: Methanol licensor syngas generation position ........................................................................ 91 Table 18: Methanol licensor converter position ...................................................................................... 92 Table 19: Feedstock and chemical unit prices ......................................................................................... 93 Table 20: Energy and utility unit prices .................................................................................................. 93 Table 21: Fixed cost estimating factors for natural gas based licensed processes................................... 94 Table 22: Fixed cost estimating factors for coal based licensed processes ............................................. 94 Table 23: Mega methanol capital cost estimates ($US millions) ............................................................ 99 Table 24: Mega methanol unit feedstock consumption ......................................................................... 100 Table 25: Unit cash cost and total production cost for methanol licensed technologies ....................... 101 Table 26: Capital cost estimates for ‘back end’ of methanol process ($US-MM) ................................ 103 Table 27: Unit syngas mass consumption for ‘back end’ of methanol process (mt/mt)........................ 104 Table 28: Licensor specific methanol production costs for syngas ....................................................... 105 Table 29: Licensor specific methanol production profit margin ........................................................... 105 Table 30: Coal gasification input data for producing 128 MM MSCF/Y of syngas for a 5,000 mtd mega methanol plant ............................................................................................................................. 107 Table 31: Combined process data for converting coal to methanol via gasification ............................. 108 Table 32: Mega methanol via licensed coal gasification 5,000 tpd capital costs ($US-MM) ............... 109 Table 33: Unit coal consumption for coal gasification technologies to produce methanol ................... 110 Table 34: Production costs for making methanol via licensed coal gasification technologies .............. 111 Table 35: Estimated profit margins to make methanol via licensed coal gasification technologies ..... 112 Table 36: Major conventional uses for methanol .................................................................................. 113 Table 37: Announced China projects using UOP methanol to olefins process ..................................... 114 Table 38: Announced new methanol capacity ....................................................................................... 123 Table 39: Celanese estimate of fuel consumption for various syngas generation technologies ............ 125 Table 40: Historical national delivered industrial sector natural gas prices ($US/MM-Btu) ................ 130 Table 41: Historical global coal prices .................................................................................................. 132 Table 42: Corresponding production capacity values ........................................................................... 136 Table 43: CO2 uncontrolled emissions factors from combustion .......................................................... 155 Table 44: CO2 emissions from Equistar methanol plant in Channelview, Texas (USA) ...................... 157 Table 45: CO2 emissions from natural gas based methanol licensed processes .................................... 160 Table 46: CO2 emissions from coal based methanol licensed processes ............................................... 161 Table 47: Estimate of water consumption in modern methanol plants.................................................. 163

Figures Figure 1:

Methanol Process ...................................................................................................................... 2

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Figure 2: Methanol historical and forecast prices for China, spot basis ................................................... 6 Figure 3: Basic methanol production process ........................................................................................... 6 Figure 4: Steam methane reformer schematic drawing............................................................................. 7 Figure 5: POX Reactor schematic drawing............................................................................................... 8 Figure 6: Combined reforming process schematic ................................................................................... 9 Figure 7: Coogee Energy Methanol Simplified Process Flow Diagrams ............................................... 10 Figure 8: Coogee Energy Methanol Schematic Diagrams ...................................................................... 11 Figure 9: Autothermal (ATR) reformer schematic ................................................................................. 12 Figure 10: GE/Texaco coal gasifier schematic ......................................................................................... 14 Figure 11: Typical Methanol Synthesis Reactor Schematic ..................................................................... 15 Figure 12: JM/Davy’s gas-heated reformer .............................................................................................. 22 Figure 13: JM/Davy’s advanced gas-heated reformer .............................................................................. 23 Figure 14: Lurgi’s first stage steam producing methanol converter ......................................................... 25 Figure 15: Temperature profile of Lurgi’s first stage steam producing methanol converter .................... 26 Figure 16: Temperature profile of Lurgi’s second stage gas cooled methanol converter ......................... 26 Figure 17: Generic autothermal reformer ................................................................................................. 27 Figure 18: Foster Wheeler combustion air preheat economizer ............................................................... 29 Figure 19: Haldor-Topsoe SMR methane conversion as function of temperature and steam to carbon ratio.............................................................................................................................................. 33 Figure 20: Haldor-Topsoe side fired steam methane reformer drawing ................................................... 34 Figure 21: H-T Combined reforming process schematic .......................................................................... 35 Figure 22: H-T Pure autothermal reforming ............................................................................................. 36 Figure 23: H-T Autothermal reformer ...................................................................................................... 37 Figure 24: H-T Heat exchange reformer configuration ............................................................................ 38 Figure 25: Haldor-Topsoe methanol converter technology ...................................................................... 40 Figure 26: H-T 3-column methanol purification distillation train ............................................................ 41 Figure 27: Haldor-Topsoe coal based methanol process integration ........................................................ 42 Figure 28: Map of JM/Davy licensed methanol plants ............................................................................. 43 Figure 29: Schematic of JM/Davy low pressure methanol process .......................................................... 44 Figure 30: JM/Davy Middle East 3000 tpd methanol plant design using SMR only ............................... 45 Figure 31: JM/Davy gas heated reactor .................................................................................................... 46 Figure 32: JM/Davy Advanced gas heated reformer ................................................................................ 47 Figure 33: JM/Davy syngas reactors in series configuration .................................................................... 48 Figure 34: JM/Davy syngas reactors in parallel configuration ................................................................. 49 Figure 35: JM/Davy tube cooled methanol converter ............................................................................... 50 Figure 36: Methanol Casale ARC methanol converter ............................................................................. 51 Figure 37: Linde isothermal methanol converter ...................................................................................... 52 Figure 38: Methanol Casale radial methanol converter ............................................................................ 53 Figure 39: JM/Davy 2-column methanol distillation train........................................................................ 54 Figure 40: Methanol Casale 3-column methanol distillation train............................................................ 55 Figure 41: Lurgi combined reforming synthesis gas generation schematic .............................................. 56 Figure 42: Lurgi autothermal reformer schematic .................................................................................... 57 Figure 43: Lurgi FBDB gasifier configuration ......................................................................................... 58 October 2014

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Figure 44: Figure 45: Figure 46: Figure 47: Figure 48: Figure 49: Figure 50: Figure 51: Figure 52: Figure 53: Figure 54: Figure 55: Figure 56: Figure 57: Figure 58: Figure 59: Figure 60: Figure 61: Figure 62: Figure 63: Figure 64: Figure 65: Figure 66: Figure 67: Figure 68: Figure 69: Figure 70: Figure 71: Figure 72: Figure 73: Figure 74: Figure 75: Figure 76: Figure 77: Figure 78: Figure 79: Figure 80: Figure 81: Figure 82: Figure 83: Figure 84: Figure 85: Figure 86:

Lurgi FBDB gasifier temperature profile ................................................................................ 59 Lurgi FBDB coal gasification process .................................................................................... 59 Lurgi MegaMethanol® synthesis loop ..................................................................................... 60 Lurgi 2-stage converter reactor system ................................................................................... 61 Lurgi steam raising single converter system ........................................................................... 62 Lurgi steam raising dual converter system .............................................................................. 63 Lurgi 2-column methanol purification via distillation ............................................................ 64 Lurgi 3-column methanol purification via distillation ............................................................ 65 Toyo combined reforming option............................................................................................ 67 Toyo steam methane reforming details for H2 production ...................................................... 69 Toyo MRF-Z methanol converter schematic .......................................................................... 70 Toyo methanol converter details ............................................................................................. 70 Toyo combined reforming option............................................................................................ 74 Toyo steam methane reforming details for H2 production ...................................................... 76 Toyo MRF-Z methanol converter schematic .......................................................................... 77 Toyo methanol converter details ............................................................................................. 77 Primary forms of commercial coal gasifiers ........................................................................... 80 US DOE Forecast of cumulative worldwide gasifier capacity ................................................ 81 US DOE Forecast of worldwide gasifier end use .................................................................... 81 Coal gasification for methanol block flow diagram ................................................................ 82 Fixed bed gasifier design ......................................................................................................... 83 Entrained bed gasifier design .................................................................................................. 84 Fluidized bed gasifier design ................................................................................................... 85 GE/Texaco coal gasification process....................................................................................... 86 Shell Oil coal gasification process .......................................................................................... 87 CB&I E-Gas coal gasification process .................................................................................... 88 Siemens coal gasification process ........................................................................................... 89 Methanol licensor market share............................................................................................... 90 Mega methanol capital cost comparison ................................................................................. 98 Unit feedstock consumption for methanol licensed technologies ........................................... 99 Unit cash cost and total production cost for methanol licensed technologies ....................... 100 Segmentation of plant capex by processing section .............................................................. 101 Companion production economics cases for ‘back end’ of process ...................................... 102 Capital cost estimates for ‘back end’ of methanol process ................................................... 103 Unit consumption of syngas per unit of methanol production (mt/mt) ................................. 104 Production cost estimate to make methanol from syngas ($US/mt)...................................... 105 Product margin comparison ($US/mt)................................................................................... 106 Coal gasification simplified process schematic ..................................................................... 107 Mega methanol via licensed coal gasification 5,000 tpd capital costs .................................. 109 Unit coal consumption for coal gasification technologies to produce methanol (mt/mt)...... 110 Production cost to make methanol via licensed coal gasification technologies .................... 111 Estimated profit margins to make methanol via licensed coal gasification technologies ..... 112 Honeywell/UOP methanol to olefins process........................................................................ 114

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Figure 87: Lurgi methanol to propylene process .................................................................................... 115 Figure 88: End use demand for methanol into chemical derivatives 2013 ............................................. 117 Figure 89: Global geographical distribution of 2013 methanol demand (kty) ........................................ 118 Figure 90: Global historical methanol demand (kty) .............................................................................. 119 Figure 91: Global historical methanol demand growth .......................................................................... 119 Figure 92: IHS forecast of global methanol demand by end-use chemical derivative ........................... 120 Figure 93: IHS estimate of global methanol capacity by region (kty) .................................................... 121 Figure 94: IHS estimates of largest methanol capacity producers globally ............................................ 122 Figure 95: IHS estimate of methanol licensor market share ................................................................... 124 Figure 96: Global methanol trade patterns.............................................................................................. 126 Figure 97: Historic methanol prices ........................................................................................................ 127 Figure 98: Historic methanol feedstock prices ....................................................................................... 128 Figure 99: Historical methanol spot prices in consuming regions .......................................................... 129 Figure 100: Historical USD natural gas monthly prices ........................................................................... 130 Figure 101: Historical US mine mouth bituminous steam coal prices...................................................... 132 Figure 102: Historical global methanol capacity and demand .................................................................. 133 Figure 103: Historical global methanol capacity utilization factor........................................................... 134 Figure 104: Historical regional methanol capacity ................................................................................... 135 Figure 105: Production economics for methanol from natural gas using the JM/Davy process technology on the US Gulf Coast .......................................................................................................... 136 Figure 106: Regional production economics for methanol via JM/Davy process as a function of capacity ............................................................................................................................................... 137 Figure 107: Production economics for methanol from natural gas using Lurgi process technology........ 137 Figure 108: Production economics for methanol from natural gas using Toyo process technology ........ 138 Figure 109: Production economics for methanol from coal using Lurgi process technology .................. 138 Figure 110: Production economics for methanol from syngas using JM/Davy process technology ........ 139 Figure 111: Production economics for methanol from syngas using Lurgi process technology .............. 139 Figure 112: Production economics for methanol from syngas using Toyo process technology............... 140 Figure 113: Production economics for methanol from syngas using Haldor-Topsoe process technology ............................................................................................................................................. 140 Figure 114: Production economics for methanol from natural gas using Haldor-Topsoe process technology ............................................................................................................................................. 141 Figure 115: Production economics for methanol from coal using GE quench gasification process technology ............................................................................................................................................. 141 Figure 116: Production economics for methanol from coal using GE radiant gasification process technology ............................................................................................................................................. 142 Figure 117: Production economics for methanol from coal using Shell Oil gasification process technology ............................................................................................................................................. 142 Figure 118: Production economics for methanol from coal using the CB&I gasification process technology ............................................................................................................................................. 143 Figure 119: Production economics for methanol from coal using the Siemens gasification process technology ............................................................................................................................................. 143 Figure 120: Calculated methanol production costs from natural using the JM/Davy process technology between 2000 and 2014 for 6 geographical regions ........................................................... 144

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Figure 121: Calculated methanol cash costs from natural using the JM/Davy process technology between 2000 and 2014 for 6 geographical regions .............................................................................. 145 Figure 122: Production cost comparison of natural gas process technologies for methanol in the U.S. Gulf Coast ............................................................................................................................................. 146 Figure 123: Production cost comparison of 5 coal gasification technologies for methanol in China....... 147 Figure 124: Production cost comparison of natural gas and coal-based methanol technologies in the U.S. ............................................................................................................................................... 148 Figure 125: Cash cost comparison of natural gas and coal-based methanol technologies in the U.S. ..... 149 Figure 126: Margin analysis for natural gas-based JM/Davy methanol technology in the U.S. Gulf Coast ............................................................................................................................................... 150 Figure 127: Cash cost analysis for natural gas-based and coal-based methanol technologies in China ... 151 Figure 128: Margin analysis for natural gas-based and coal-based methanol technologies in China....... 152 Figure 129: Equistar methanol plant re-start process flow diagram ......................................................... 157 Figure 130: Celanese proposed combined reforming methanol process .................................................. 158 Figure 131: Comparison of methanol emissions from Celanese and other U.S. methanol projects ......... 159 Figure 132: CO2 emissions from natural gas-based methanol licensed processes.................................... 161 Figure 133: CO2 emissions from coal-based methanol licensed processes .............................................. 162

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