Passenger transport: challenges, trends & opportunities
Matthias Gather Transport and Spatial Planning Institute Erfurt University of Applied Sciences
www.verkehr-und-raum.de
EIONET meeting on Environment and Transport European Environment Agency 12th June 2014 Copenhagen
Contents • Forecasts and trends of mobility • Challenges of a sustainable transport system
• Long distance rail and modal shift • Evaluation of European rail connections • Conclusions
Passenger transport: challenges, trends and opportunities (Gather)
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Forecasts of mobility
Source: OECD / ITF (2012): Transport Outlook Seamless Transport for Greener Growth, p. 22
Passenger transport: challenges, trends and opportunities (Gather)
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Forecasts of mobility
Source: OECD / ITF (2012): Transport Outlook Seamless Transport for Greener Growth, p. 26
Passenger transport: challenges, trends and opportunities (Gather)
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Forecasts of mobility
Source: OECD / ITF (2012): Transport Outlook Seamless Transport for Greener Growth, p. 26
Passenger transport: challenges, trends and opportunities (Gather)
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Trends in mobility • In the U.S., U.K., Germany, Netherlands, Scandinavia … Significant decline of car possession and car use amongst younger (urban) people More multimodality and intermodality More deliberately non-motorized trips More multi-locality More long-distance travel Passenger transport: challenges, trends and opportunities (Gather)
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Challenges and questions … … concerning a sustainable transport system Social justice Mobility for all (elderly, disabled, poor people ... )?
Multimodality in all parts of the country? Sufficient supply in all parts of the country?
Environment Containing energy demand and traffic growth? Promoting „green“ means of transportation?
Mitigating existing and avoiding future environmental damages?
Passenger transport: challenges, trends and opportunities (Gather)
Economic efficiency Free and efficient (international) exchange of goods?
Secure financing of transport infrastructure? True cost in the transport system?
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Challenges and objectives • De-coupling of transport and economic growth (Traffic and transport are not synonymous with mobility > securing mobility with less traffic!) • Modal shift towards environmentally friendlier means of transport • Improving the environmental impact / mitigating the environmental costs of transport
Passenger transport: challenges, trends and opportunities (Gather)
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CO2 - Emissions of transport modes in passenger transport in g/Pkm – 2009 200
187 180 160
150
Alternative fuels? Electric vehicles?
CO2 – Emissions in g/Pkm
140 120 100 76
80
71
60 46 40
31
20 0
0
Flugzeug Airplane
Pkw Car
Bahn - NV Rail (reg)
Linienbus Bus (reg)
Bahn - FV Rail (long)
Transport mode Passenger transport: challenges, trends and opportunities (Gather)
Reisebus Coach
Fahrrad Bicycle
Quelle: Umweltbundesamt
Long distance rail and modal shift „High-speed rail as an alternative for air transport • … • On the links Paris-Brussels, Paris-Marseille and Madrid-Seville the share of rail transport has increased by a factor 2-3 following introduction of high-speed rail services. On the links Paris-London and Madrid-Barcelona rail had a share of respectively 70 and 60% in 2010. On some of the links (e.g. Paris-Brussels) air services were discontinued after introduction of the high-speed rail services. • High-speed rail is a proven alternative for air transport with travel times up to 4 hours. Data for the HSL-Est connection that was finished in 2007 show that air transport on the ParisStrasbourg link has been reduced from 1 million flights to 400,000 flights.” Source: CE Delft (2011): Potential of modal shift to rail transport, p. 54
Passenger transport: challenges, trends and opportunities (Gather)
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Selected European metropolises (116) Larger Urban Zones (Agglomerationen) > 1 Mio. Einw. + LUZ (500.000 - 1 Mio. Einw.) mit starker Metropolfunktion (Metroindex > 7,5) + LUZ mit wichtigen politischen Funktionen (Politik-Index > 2,5) +LUZ 500T-1M mit Metroindex > 2,5 und Luftlinienentfernung zu bestehendem LUZ > 150 km
Perm
Ufa Sankt-Peterburg
Helsinki Oslo
Kazan
Tallinn
Niznij Novgorod
Stockholm Samara Göteborg
Glasgow Edinburgh Belfast
Moskva Riga
Arhus
Newcastle-u.-T.
Saratov
Kobenhavn-Malmö Dublin
Vilnius
Leeds Manchester-Liverpool Sheffield
Randstad
Lille
Berlin Hannover Bielefeld Rhein-Ruhr Leipzig Maas-Rhein
Luxembourg
Frankfurt a. M.
Bruxelles
Paris
Genève Lyon Milano
Charkiv Kyjiv
Wroclaw Katowice-Krakow
Wien-Bratislava
Chisinau Odesa
Budapest
Ljubljana Zagreb Venézia-Padova
Tbilisi
Yerevan
Sarajevo Sofia
Zaragoza Barcelona
Skopje
Roma
Lisboa Nápoli Valencia
Bucuresti
Beograd
Nice Marseille
Madrid
Donetsk Rostov-na-Donu Dnipropetrovsk
Lviv
Ostrava
Bologna
Toulouse
Porto
Volgograd
Warszawa Lodz
Praha
Stuttgart Strasbourg Linz Basel München Zürich Bern
Torino
Poznan
Nürnberg
Rhein-Neckar
Nantes
Bordeaux
Voronez
Hamburg Bremen
Cardiff-Bristol London
Bilbao
Minsk
Gdansk
Birmingham
Bari
Istanbul
Tiranë Bursa
Thessaloniki
Palma
Sevilla
Izmir Málaga
Ankara
Palermo
Passenger transport: challenges, trends and opportunities (Gather)
Gaziantep
Konya Adana
Athina
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Baki
Selecting European connections Triangulation of metropolitian areas (adopted): 306 metropolitan connections
LUZ mit Triangulation plus Korrekturen
Ufa
Sankt-Peterburg
Helsinki Oslo
Perm
Kazan
Tallinn
Niznij Novgorod
Stockholm Samara Göteborg
Glasgow Edinburgh Belfast
Moskva Riga
Arhus
Newcastle-u.-T.
Saratov
Kobenhavn-Malmö Dublin
Vilnius
Leeds Manchester-Liverpool Sheffield
Randstad
Lille
Berlin Hannover Bielefeld Rhein-Ruhr Leipzig Maas-Rhein
Luxembourg
Frankfurt a. M.
Bruxelles
Paris
Genève Lyon Milano
Charkiv Kyjiv
Wroclaw Katowice-Krakow
Wien-Bratislava
Chisinau Odesa
Budapest
Ljubljana Zagreb Venézia-Padova
Tbilisi
Yerevan
Sarajevo Sofia
Zaragoza Barcelona
Skopje
Roma
Lisboa Nápoli Valencia
Bucuresti
Beograd
Nice Marseille
Madrid
Donetsk Rostov-na-Donu Dnipropetrovsk
Lviv
Ostrava
Bologna
Toulouse
Porto
Volgograd
Warszawa Lodz
Praha
Stuttgart Strasbourg Linz Basel München Zürich Bern
Torino
Poznan
Nürnberg
Rhein-Neckar
Nantes
Bordeaux
Voronez
Hamburg Bremen
Cardiff-Bristol London
Bilbao
Minsk
Gdansk
Birmingham
Bari
Istanbul
Tiranë Bursa
Thessaloniki
Palma
Sevilla
Izmir Málaga
Ankara
Palermo
Passenger transport: challenges, trends and opportunities (Gather)
Gaziantep
Konya Adana
Athina
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Baki
Evaluation of connections Evaluation criteria for level of service: • Travel time • Frequency • Number of transfers () • Fares • Comfort • Punctuality
Passenger transport: challenges, trends and opportunities (Gather)
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Evaluation: Frequency
Fahrthäufigkeit pro Legende Richtung Metropolen und Tag Häufigkeit Anzahl
0 F E D C B A
0 1 2-4 5 - 12 13 - 24 25 - 36 37 - 92
Basel - Zürich
92
Edinburgh - Glasgow
66
Sheffield - London
53
Rhein-Neckar - Frankfurt
79
Manchester-Liverpool - Leeds
63
Rhein-Ruhr - Bielefeld
52
Bern - Zürich
74
Linz - Wien-Bratislava
60
Manchester-Liverpool - Birmingham
52
Basel - Bern
72
London - Birmingham
56
Bern - Geneve
51
Evaluation: Travel Speed (Beeline)
Legende
Metropolen
V_max V-Max
0 F E D C B A
km/h
0 1 - 25 26 - 50 51 - 75 76 - 100 101 - 150 151 - 219
Madrid - Zaragoza
219
Paris - Lille
192
Zaragoza - Barcelona
173
Madrid - Barcelona
202
Madrid - Valencia
191
Málaga - Madrid
172
Paris - Lyon
201
Milano - Bologna
186
Milano - Torino
172
Brüssel - Paris
198
London - Lille
178
Lille - Bruxelles
171
km/h
Evaluation: Overall connecting quality Legende Metropolen
Verbindungsqualität Wert
0 F E D C B A
0 1 - 100 101 - 350 351 - 750 751 - 2000 2001 - 5000 5001 - 14361
f
vRIN gesamt
f
vRIN gesamt
f
vRIN gesamt
Basel - Zürich
92
(156)
14361
London - Birmingham
56
(184)
10303
Rhein-Ruhr - Bielefeld
52
(178)
9235
Rhein-Neckar - Frankfurt
79
(167)
13197
Basel - Bern
72
(138)
9904
Manch.-Liv. - Leeds
63
(143)
9033
Bern - Zürich
74
(161)
11915
Linz - Wien-Bratisl.
60
(163)
9784
Roma - Bologna
47
(185)
8708
Edinburgh - Glasgow
66
(166)
10933
Frankfurt - Rhein-Ruhr
49
(192)
9389
Bruxelles - Maas-Rhein
49
(162)
7957
Cluster very often
CH
Frequency
A
UK B
PL/CZ
IT
C
D
FR
ES C
B
A Speed quality (abstract value)
very fast
Cluster very often
CH
DE
Frequency
A
UK B
PL/CZ
IT
C
D
FR
ES C
B
A Speed quality (abstract value)
very fast
Conclusions • The overall aim of a sustainable transport system is to secure individual mobility under fair prices with no damage to the natural environment. • There are already good examples and good solutions for a sustainable multimodal local passenger transport system in urban areas. • It is much more difficult to identify good examples and good solutions for a sustainable local passenger transport system in rural areas in Europe. • Electric (individual) vehicles are likely to play an important role in securing sustainable mobility in rural areas. Passenger transport: challenges, trends and opportunities (Gather)
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Conclusions • Concerning interregional travel the respective environmental strengths and potentials of each transport mode should be made use of. • On a regional and inter-regional scale railways are a well established transport mode with comparably little environmental impact. • Furthermore between neighbouring metropolises railways are generally highly competitive with all other modes.
Passenger transport: challenges, trends and opportunities (Gather)
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Recommendations • Rather promote railways than air travel or coaches. • Focus on minimising barriers of interoperabilty. • Focus on international lines between major metropolises. • Stronger European concept of networks than EU corridors. • Don‘t focus only on speed, also improve frequency. • Provide the administrative and financial framework for ordering publicly funded services on long distance railway connections. Passenger transport: challenges, trends and opportunities (Gather)
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Sources •
CE Delft (2011): Potential of modal shift to rail transport. Study on the projected effects on GHG emissions and transport volumes. Eelco den Boer, Huib van Essen, Femke Brouwer, Enrico Pastori (TRT), Alessandra Moizo (TRT). Delft, March 2011 http://www.cedelft.eu/publicatie/potential_of_modal_shift_to_rail_transport/1 163
•
Gather, Matthias; Lüttmerding, Attila (2013): Level of service on passenger railway connections between European metropolises. = Berichte des Instituts Verkehr und Raum, Bd. 15. Erfurt. http://www.fherfurt.de/fhe/fileadmin/Material/Institut/Verkehr_Raum/Download/IVR_Berich te/IVR_Bericht_LevelOfServices_v8.pdf
•
OECD / ITF (2012): Transport Outlook - Seamless Transport for Greener Growth. http://www.internationaltransportforum.org/pub/pdf/12Outlook.pdf
•
UBA – Umweltbundesamt (2010): CO2-Emissionsminderung im Verkehr in Deutschland. Mögliche Maßnahmen und ihre Minderungspotenziale. Ein Sachstandsbericht des Umweltbundesamtes. Texte 05/2010. http://www.umweltbundesamt.de/ubainfomedien/mysql_medien.php?anfrage=Kennummer&Suchwort=3773
Passenger transport: challenges, trends and opportunities (Gather)
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Forschung • Anwendung • Wissenstransfer
Prof. Dr. Matthias Gather Verkehrspolitik und Raumplanung
Prof. Dr. Florian Heinitz Transportwirtschaft
Prof. Dr.-Ing. Heinrich H. Kill Verkehrssystemgestaltung
Passenger transport: challenges, trends and opportunities (Gather)
Institut Verkehr und Raum Fak. Wirtschaft-Logistik-Verkehr Fachhochschule Erfurt Altonaer Str. 25, D-99085 Erfurt Tel. +49 (361) 6700 - 758 www.verkehr-und-raum.de
